191 Points, 176 in a Loss, and Complete Fantasy Nonsense

Week 5 Broke the Scoreboard

We have officially reached the part of the fantasy season where the standings make less sense the longer you stare at them.

Week 5 gave us the highest-scoring team performance of the season.

It also gave us the second-highest-scoring team performance of the season.

They played each other.

Of course they did.

ALL BALLZ ITCH scored 191.26.

kristianP1 scored 176.34.

Before Week 5, the league's best single-game score belonged to Bosscoe at 171.50.

So kristian broke the season scoring record...

...and lost by almost 15.

That's fantasy football distilled into one sentence.

The two teams combined for 367.60 points, obliterating the previous season-high combined score by nearly 79 points.

And somehow that wasn't the only story.

Darius35 entered as an underdog, scored 165.36, and submitted the exact optimal lineup.

Prestige WorldWide finally won a game because its opponent, for the first time all year, behaved like a normal fantasy team.

Bosscoe got back into the win column.

Goonies Never Say Punt moved to 4–1.

And after five weeks, ALL BALLZ ITCH now leads the entire league in scoring despite sitting at just 3–2.

Week 5 produced 1,341.38 total points, an average of 134.14 per team.

That's the highest-scoring week of the season so far.

Apparently everybody decided defense was optional.

Week 5 Awards

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Game of the Year

KRISTIANP1 SCORED 176.34. ALL BALLZ ITCH SAID, "THAT'S ADORABLE."

ALL BALLZ ITCH 191.26, kristianP1 176.34

Where do we even start?

The forecast gave kristianP1 a slight edge.

Projected score:

kristianP1 127.05.

ALL BALLZ ITCH 121.47.

Win probability:

kristianP1 57.9%.

ALL BALLZ ITCH 42.1%.

Nothing dramatic.

A competitive matchup with kristian holding a modest advantage.

Then both teams apparently decided projections were insulting.

kristian scored 49.29 points above expectation.

ALL BALLZ ITCH scored 69.56 above the expectation of the final lineup.

Combined, they beat their projected totals by nearly 119 points.

This wasn't a fantasy matchup.

This was a software stress test.

Let's start with kristian.

Puka Nacua scored 37.70.

Bucky Irving scored 31.50.

Jared Goff scored 28.94.

George Pickens scored 28.00.

Davante Adams scored 22.10.

Those five players produced 148.24 points.

Read that again.

Five players scored more than eight of the ten full fantasy teams in the league this week.

And kristian did almost everything right.

The submitted lineup was already the projection-optimal lineup before kickoff.

After the games, the best legal hindsight lineup scores 181.24.

That's only 4.90 points better than the actual 176.34.

There was no giant coaching mistake hiding in the box score.

No 30-point player inexplicably buried behind somebody projected for six.

The lineup was good.

The decisions were good.

The score was outrageous.

And kristian still lost.

Because ALL BALLZ ITCH went completely off the rails.

Jaylen Warren scored 36.80.

Jayden Daniels scored 32.26.

Garrett Wilson scored 23.40.

Brock Bowers scored 23.00.

The San Francisco defense scored 20.00.

Ja'Marr Chase scored 19.70.

Will Reichard scored 16.00.

Ollie Gordon scored 14.80.

Eight different lineup spots scored at least 14.80 points.

DK Metcalf's 5.30 was basically the only starter who didn't show up carrying gasoline.

And there was one owner decision worth highlighting.

Earlier in the week, Kyler Murray was in the lineup.

Before kickoff, Jayden Daniels replaced him.

The projections barely cared.

Daniels: 17.04 projected.

Kyler: 16.81 projected.

Expected gain:

0.23 points.

Actual result?

Daniels: 32.26.

Kyler: 18.26.

Actual gain:

14.00 points.

And here's the ridiculous part.

If ALL BALLZ ITCH leaves Kyler in, the final score becomes 177.26.

kristian scored 176.34.

ALL BALLZ ITCH still wins.

By 0.92.

The lineup move didn't technically save the victory.

It just turned what would have been an all-time one-point escape into a 14.92-point win.

Even the hindsight numbers are ridiculous.

kristian's perfect lineup: 181.24.

ALL BALLZ ITCH's perfect lineup: 204.56.

Yes.

Two hundred four point five six.

kristian could have been perfect after the fact and still lost by 23.32 points to the opponent's perfect lineup.

This game reset the season record book.

ALL BALLZ ITCH's 191.26 is now the highest score of the year.

kristianP1's 176.34 is now the second-highest.

They happened in the same matchup.

The combined 367.60 points is not just the highest total of the season.

It obliterated the previous high.

ALL BALLZ ITCH moves to 3–2.

kristianP1 falls to 1–4.

And if anybody ever tells kristian, "Just score more points," he is legally allowed to stop listening.

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Upset No. 2

DARIUS35 WAS THE UNDERDOG FOR ABOUT FIVE MINUTES. THEN THE POINTS STARTED ARRIVING.

Darius35 165.36, eduardobass7 132.64

Darius35 came into Week 5 trying to respond to his first loss of the season.

The forecast actually leaned the other way.

eduardobass7: 128.76 projected, 56.2% win probability.

Darius35: 124.35 projected, 43.8% win probability.

A mild upset opportunity.

Darius turned it into a 32.72-point statement.

And unlike last week, when his lineup collapsed below 95 points, nearly everything hit.

Jahmyr Gibbs scored 37.70.

Christian Watson scored 32.30.

Spencer Shrader somehow scored 21.00 from the kicker spot.

D'Andre Swift added 17.30.

Brock Purdy scored 17.16.

Zay Flowers had 14.60.

Denzel Boston scored 13.60.

Cincinnati's defense contributed 10.00.

That is an absurdly balanced scoring profile.

The funniest part?

After the games were over, there was nothing to fix.

Actual score: 165.36.

Optimal legal score: 165.36.

Darius left zero points on the table.

Nothing.

Not 0.2.

Not one random kicker point.

The lineup was perfect.

There was also one good late decision.

Denzel Boston replaced Kyle Monangai.

The projection gain was small: 1.02 points.

The actual difference was much larger.

Boston: 13.60.

Monangai: 0.00.

Nice call.

It wasn't necessary to win, but it was absolutely the right move.

eduardobass7 didn't have a bad week.

That's important.

He scored 132.64, the fourth-highest total in the league.

Parker Washington exploded for 30.40.

Jason Myers scored 23.00.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 22.80.

Houston's defense scored 16.00.

That normally gives you a very real chance.

Not against 165.

There was one painful bench decision after the fact.

Tyler Warren scored 21.40 while Juwan Johnson scored 5.60.

The perfect hindsight lineup gets eduardobass7 to 148.44.

Still loses by almost 17.

So let's not invent a coaching scandal.

Darius35 simply had one of the best team performances of the season and managed it perfectly.

He improves to 4–1.

eduardobass7 falls to 3–2.

And one week after getting punched in the mouth for 94.32, Darius answered with 165.36.

That's a decent bounce-back.

---

The Losing Streak Is Over

PRESTIGE WORLDWIDE FINALLY GOT AN OPPONENT WHO DIDN'T TURN INTO A SUPERTEAM

Prestige WorldWide 127.20, horns75 103.12

Everybody gather around.

It finally happened.

Prestige WorldWide won a fantasy football game.

After four weeks of opponents treating Prestige like they had a personal grudge, the schedule finally relaxed.

The matchup was projected to be almost perfectly even.

Prestige: 117.24.

horns75: 117.09.

Win probability:

50.2% to 49.8%.

You cannot get much closer to a coin flip.

Prestige won by 24.08.

And the victory wasn't some fluky 89-point stumble across the finish line.

The team scored a solid 127.20, nearly 10 points above expectation.

Malik Nabers scored 29.10.

Joe Burrow scored 24.60.

Sam LaPorta scored 19.80.

Christian McCaffrey added 17.30.

Emanuel Wilson gave him 13.20.

Tucker Kraft added 11.60.

There were even points left on the table, but not many.

Prestige's optimal lineup gets to 130.80.

That's only 3.60 points better.

This was clean.

This was deserved.

This was normal.

Prestige has probably forgotten what normal feels like.

horns75, meanwhile, had the opposite problem.

Matthew Stafford gave him 27.32.

Drake London scored 18.80.

Emeka Egbuka added 17.20.

Then the lineup started leaking points.

Jonathan Taylor scored 11.20.

Ashton Jeanty had 10.70.

George Kittle had 7.40.

Deebo Samuel finished with 2.50.

Jacksonville's defense scored 2.00.

horns75 finished 13.97 points below projection.

Could the bench have saved him?

No.

The perfect hindsight lineup reaches only 110.12.

Prestige scored 127.20.

For the first time this season, Prestige didn't need to explain away a loss, curse the schedule or calculate the opponent's average score in disbelief.

Prestige is 1–4.

horns75 falls to 3–2.

And the league has officially lost its last winless team.

Please respect this historic occasion.

---

Bosscoe Gets Back on Track

ESTEVAN059 HAD TWO MONSTER SCORES. THE OTHER SEVEN STARTERS APPARENTLY TOOK THE WEEK OFF.

Bosscoe 124.74, Estevan059 94.12

Bosscoe entered as a slight favorite.

Projected score:

Bosscoe 114.78.

Estevan059 112.17.

Win probability:

53.7% to 46.3%.

Basically another near-coin flip.

The final score was not.

Bosscoe won by 30.62.

And the winning formula was simple: enough good performances, fewer disasters.

Mike Evans scored 26.30.

James Cook scored 22.80.

Trevor Lawrence scored 22.74.

Brenton Strange added 13.80.

Amon-Ra St. Brown had a disappointing 12.90, but the rest of the lineup gave Bosscoe enough to cruise.

There were some points left on the bench.

Jameson Williams scored 18.70.

Bosscoe's hindsight-optimal lineup reaches 141.24.

There were also two late lineup changes that looked reasonable before kickoff but didn't work out.

Quinshon Judkins and Jeremiyah Love moved in.

Jameson Williams and RJ Harvey moved out.

Those moves improved the projected lineup by 0.60 points.

After the games?

They cost 9.20 actual points.

And it didn't matter.

Even the earlier lineup would have won comfortably.

Estevan059 had a much stranger box score.

Isaiah Likely scored 32.40.

Derrick Henry scored 21.00.

Those two combined for 53.40.

The entire team scored 94.12.

That means the other seven starting positions produced 40.72 combined points.

And some of those numbers were ugly.

CeeDee Lamb: 2.90.

David Montgomery: 1.10.

DJ Moore: 0.00.

Jaylen Waddle: 4.80.

Bo Nix: 7.92.

The scoreboard never had a chance.

J.K. Dobbins scored 15.40 on the bench.

Kyle Pitts scored 15.20.

The hindsight-optimal lineup reaches 123.62.

That would have made things much more interesting.

But again, not every postgame swap was obvious beforehand.

The larger problem was simply too many starters failing at once.

Bosscoe improves to 2–3.

Estevan059 falls to 3–2.

And Bosscoe's season remains one of the strangest in the league: big scoring ability, a positive point differential, and a losing record.

---

Goonies Moves to 4–1

KING IROK MADE TWO MOVES THAT LOOKED BETTER ON PAPER. THEY AGED TERRIBLY.

Goonies Never Say Punt 128.18, King iRok 98.42

This matchup was almost a coin flip.

Goonies entered at 52.6%.

King iRok sat at 47.4%.

Projected margin:

1.85 points.

Final margin:

29.76.

Goonies didn't need a monster team score.

He just needed King iRok to come in well below expectation.

And that's exactly what happened.

Josh Allen led Goonies with 31.50.

Matthew Golden scored 20.30.

Kyren Williams had 19.60.

Aaron Jones scored 18.70.

Denver's defense added 15.00.

That was enough to reach 128.18 despite Dalton Kincaid scoring only 3.70 and Michael Wilson finishing at 7.28.

The bench was actually louder than several starters.

Justin Jefferson scored 18.80.

Rhamondre Stevenson scored 17.50.

Hunter Henry scored 13.40.

A hindsight-perfect Goonies lineup gets all the way to 159.80.

But 128.18 was plenty.

King iRok is where the interesting decision story lives.

Two lineup changes were made after the earlier forecast:

Kirk Cousins replaced Jordan Love.

Carnell Tate replaced Courtland Sutton.

Combined, those changes actually improved the projected lineup by 0.98 points.

Totally reasonable.

Actual results?

Cousins: 13.72.

Jordan Love: 25.28.

Carnell Tate: 1.60.

Courtland Sutton: 9.80.

The two changes cost 19.76 actual points.

Ouch.

Put the earlier starters back in and King iRok scores 118.18.

Still loses.

Goonies had 128.18.

So this wasn't a case where the owner accidentally coached himself into a loss.

The decisions simply made a bad afternoon look worse.

Trey McBride was excellent with 21.60.

Bijan Robinson scored 15.80.

Minnesota's defense added 11.00.

But Tee Higgins had 4.20, Luther Burden scored 8.90, and too many other spots landed below expectation.

King iRok finished 21.58 points below the expectation of his final lineup.

Goonies improves to 4–1.

King iRok falls to 1–4.

And once again, we have a perfect example of why a bad result doesn't automatically mean a bad decision.

The moves made sense.

Football disagreed.

Aggressively.

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The Bench Report: Week 5 Was Surprisingly Forgiving

The biggest Week 5 bench scores included:

• Jordan Love — 25.28 on King iRok's bench
• Tyler Warren — 21.40 on eduardobass7's bench
• Jameson Williams — 18.70 on Bosscoe's bench
• Justin Jefferson — 18.80 on Goonies Never Say Punt's bench
• Braelon Allen — 18.60 on ALL BALLZ ITCH's bench
• Rhamondre Stevenson — 17.50 on Goonies Never Say Punt's bench
• J.K. Dobbins — 15.40 on Estevan059's bench
• Kyle Pitts — 15.20 on Estevan059's bench

But Week 5 wasn't really a week of catastrophic coaching.

That's important.

Darius35 submitted the exact optimal lineup.

kristianP1 left only 4.90 hindsight points behind while scoring 176.34.

Prestige left only 3.60.

horns75 could only improve by 7.00.

ALL BALLZ ITCH could have pushed the insanity from 191.26 to 204.56, but that's not exactly a crisis.

The ugliest bench situation belonged to Goonies at 31.62 points of hindsight upside, and Goonies still won by nearly 30.

King iRok's changes hurt badly after the fact, but they actually improved the expected lineup beforehand.

That's the ongoing lesson of these recaps:

Sometimes the bench is evidence.

Sometimes it's just a list of answers you didn't have yet.

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Five Weeks In: Two Teams at 4–1 and One 3–2 Team Scoring Like a Juggernaut

Darius35 and Goonies Sit at 4–1

Five teams were tied at 3–1 entering the week.

Only two escaped with a fourth win.

Darius35 now leads the standings with 691.34 points scored and a +54.34 differential.

Goonies Never Say Punt is also 4–1 and owns the league's best point differential at +83.60.

Different scoring profiles.

Same record.

ALL BALLZ ITCH Is the Highest-Scoring Team in the League

This is starting to become ridiculous.

720.56 points.

That's 144.11 points per week.

Nobody has scored more.

Record?

3–2.

ALL BALLZ ITCH has outscored Darius by 29.22 points and Goonies by 82.92.

Still sits behind both in the standings.

The reason is sitting in the PA column.

Opponents have scored 701.74 points against ALL BALLZ ITCH.

That's an average of 140.35 per week.

Apparently scoring 144 per week is what you need just to stay two games above water around here.

kristianP1 Is 1–4 and Has the Third-Most Points in the League

After scoring 176.34 and losing, this deserves its own section.

kristianP1 has scored 656.42 points this season.

Only ALL BALLZ ITCH and Darius35 have scored more.

Record:

1–4.

One and four.

He has more points than Goonies, who is 4–1.

He has nearly 94 more points than horns75, who is 3–2.

This is not a typo.

This is fantasy football schedule violence.

Bosscoe Is Still Better Than 2–3 Looks

Bosscoe has scored 634.42 points, owns a +48.32 point differential, and is 2–3.

That's the fifth-highest scoring total in the league and the third-best positive differential.

His record continues to undersell the team.

The volatility has been wild, but the season-long production remains strong.

Prestige Finally Won — and Still Has the Schedule From Hell

The good news:

Prestige WorldWide is no longer winless.

The bad news:

Prestige has still allowed 705.74 points, the most in the league.

That's an average of 141.15 per week.

The average came down significantly because horns75 scored only 103.12.

"Only 103" is apparently what counts as schedule relief for Prestige.

At least the zero is gone.

Sometimes you celebrate progress wherever you can find it.

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Final Word

Week 5 didn't just produce big scores.

It produced absurd context.

ALL BALLZ ITCH set the new season scoring record at 191.26.

kristianP1 broke the previous season record too — with 176.34 — and somehow received a loss for his trouble.

Darius35 answered last week's stumble with a perfectly managed 165.36-point eruption.

Prestige WorldWide finally escaped the winless column.

Goonies moved to 4–1.

Bosscoe got back on track.

And now the standings have become increasingly detached from the simple question of who has scored the most points.

The league's highest-scoring team is 3–2.

The third-highest-scoring team is 1–4.

A 4–1 team has scored fewer points than both of them.

And one manager just learned that 176 points is apparently not enough.

Five weeks in, we officially have enough evidence to say something very important:

This league is ridiculous.

Not broken.

Not unfair.

Just ridiculous in exactly the way fantasy football is supposed to be.

Two teams sit at 4–1.

Four more are within two games of them.

The scoring leader is chasing from behind.

The records are lying.

And after watching 191 play 176, I have absolutely no idea what Week 6 is supposed to do for an encore.

Good luck.

Bring on Week 6.