Perfection Dies, KristianP1 Breaks Through and the Top Gets Crowded

Week 4 Blew Up the Standings

So much for the undefeated season.

We entered Week 4 with Darius35 and eduardobass7 sitting at 3–0.

We left Week 4 with zero undefeated teams and five teams tied at 3–1.

That's not a standings race.

That's a traffic jam.

And the way we got there was even better.

The biggest underdog on the board finally won his first game. Both 3–0 teams lost by more than 30 points. ALL BALLZ ITCH dropped the highest score of the week and somehow became the league's overall scoring leader despite sitting at 2–2. Goonies Never Say Punt made lineup changes that quite literally flipped the result of its matchup.

Meanwhile, Prestige WorldWide scored almost exactly what it was projected to score and still fell to 0–4 because apparently every opponent sees Prestige on the schedule and immediately becomes the 2007 Patriots.

Week 4 produced 1,223.22 total points, an average of 122.32 per team.

ALL BALLZ ITCH led the league with 159.18.

eduardobass7 finished last with 91.60.

And for the first time this season, the closest matchup wasn't particularly close at all: Goonies beat Bosscoe by 8.84 points.

Week 4 didn't give us a photo finish.

It gave us upheaval.

Week 4 Awards

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Biggest Upset

KRISTIANP1 HAD A 22.3% CHANCE TO WIN. THEN HE MADE THE MOVE THAT CHANGED EVERYTHING.

kristianP1 144.18, Prestige WorldWide 122.92

Oh, this one is good.

kristianP1 entered Week 4 at 0–3.

Prestige WorldWide also entered at 0–3, but the forecast wasn't particularly kind to kristian.

Projected score:

Prestige WorldWide 122.26.

kristianP1 100.64.

Win probability:

Prestige 77.7%.

kristianP1 22.3%.

That was the biggest projected mismatch of the entire week.

Then kristian changed the lineup.

Earlier in the week, Konata Mumpfield was in the starting lineup and Puka Nacua was on the bench.

Before kickoff, kristian fixed it.

Puka went in.

Mumpfield came out.

And unlike a lot of fantasy decisions that only look smart after the scores arrive, this one was supported before the games ever started.

Puka carried a 19.13-point projection.

Mumpfield was projected for 1.61.

The move raised kristian's expected lineup total by 17.52 points and effectively turned the submitted lineup into the projection-optimal build.

Then the actual games made the decision look even better.

Puka Nacua scored 27.70.

Konata Mumpfield scored 1.70.

That's a 26-point actual swing.

And here's the fun part:

If kristian leaves the earlier lineup alone, the team scores 118.18.

Prestige scored 122.92.

kristian loses.

The lineup move didn't merely make the final score prettier.

It changed the winner.

That's owner decision-making actually deciding a matchup.

And Puka wasn't alone.

Javonte Williams exploded for 31.30.

Chuba Hubbard scored 25.90.

Jared Goff added 20.48.

Cameron Dicker chipped in 12.00.

Suddenly the team projected around 100 was sitting at 144.18, the second-highest score of the entire week.

Prestige, meanwhile, did almost exactly what the numbers expected.

Projected: 122.26.

Actual: 122.92.

You cannot get much closer than that.

Joe Burrow scored 25.72.

Malik Nabers had 23.20.

Sam LaPorta delivered 22.40.

Chris Olave added 19.60.

That is a perfectly respectable fantasy lineup.

It simply ran into kristianP1 on the exact week kristian finally put everything together.

Could Prestige have found a miracle on the bench?

Not enough of one.

The perfect hindsight lineup gets Prestige to 141.62.

kristian scored 144.18.

Even after we give Prestige every correct answer after the test is already graded, it still loses by 2.56.

That is brutal.

kristianP1 is finally in the win column at 1–3.

Prestige falls to 0–4.

And after three weeks of close losses, bench pain and reasonable decisions getting punished anyway, kristian didn't sneak into the win column.

He kicked the door open as a 22.3% underdog.

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The Perfect Records Are Dead

DARIUS35 FINALLY LOST — AND IT WASN'T PARTICULARLY CLOSE

Estevan059 124.86, Darius35 94.32

Darius35 entered Week 4 as the league's last remaining heavyweight.

3–0.

League-leading scoring through three weeks.

A 59.8% favorite over Estevan059.

Projected score:

Darius35 128.35, Estevan059 121.27.

Nothing overwhelming, but enough to say Darius was expected to keep rolling.

Instead, he posted 94.32.

That's 33.15 points below the expectation of the final lineup.

The team that had averaged nearly 144 points through three games suddenly couldn't crack 95.

Fantasy football has a wonderful sense of humor.

Estevan059 didn't need a complete roster explosion to capitalize.

He mostly needed one enormous performance.

CeeDee Lamb scored 41.30.

Forty-one point three.

That's nearly one-third of Estevan's entire team score from one player.

Ka'imi Fairbairn somehow added 16.00 from the kicker spot, Derrick Henry scored 15.90, Jaylen Waddle had 14.50, and Isaiah Likely contributed 13.60.

Estevan finished at 124.86, only 3.59 points above expectation.

In other words, this upset wasn't really about Estevan going nuclear.

It was about Darius collapsing.

Zay Flowers did his part with 25.80.

Brock Purdy scored 19.62.

Jahmyr Gibbs had 17.70.

Then the production disappeared.

Christian Watson: 7.70.

D'Andre Swift: 7.40.

Darren Waller: 6.60.

Travis Kelce: 3.50.

Las Vegas defense: 1.00.

And naturally, the bench looked much healthier.

Kyle Monangai scored 28.00.

Devaughn Vele scored 17.40.

Omarion Hampton scored 13.30.

A perfect hindsight lineup gets Darius all the way to 138.42.

That's a massive 44.10-point difference from the submitted lineup.

Sounds like a coaching disaster.

Except it really wasn't.

Before kickoff, Darius' lineup was essentially where the projections wanted it. The earlier submitted build was only 1.18 points below projection-optimal.

There was one late change worth noting: Darren Waller replaced Devaughn Vele.

The projections slightly preferred Vele, 10.34 to 9.46.

The actual scores preferred him much more aggressively:

Vele: 17.40.

Waller: 6.60.

That decision cost 10.80 actual points.

Still nowhere near enough to erase a 30.54-point loss.

The larger story is simpler.

Darius' players had their first bad collective week.

It happens.

Estevan059 improves to 3–1.

Darius35 falls to 3–1.

And just like that, the league's cleanest early résumé has its first stain.

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EDUARDOBASS7 WAS 3–0. HORNS75 RESPONDED WITH "NOT ANYMORE."

horns75 123.88, eduardobass7 91.60

The other undefeated team didn't fare any better.

Actually, it fared worse.

eduardobass7 entered with a 64.6% win probability and a projected 123.72–113.05 advantage.

The final margin went the opposite direction.

By 32.28 points.

horns75 wasn't spectacular.

He was just solid almost everywhere.

Jonathan Taylor scored 22.70.

Ashton Jeanty had 18.60.

Deebo Samuel scored 18.00.

George Kittle added 17.00.

Drake London scored 14.60.

Even Jake Elliott chipped in 10.00.

That is exactly the kind of lineup that becomes difficult to beat when the other side starts collecting zeros.

And eduardobass7 collected two of them.

Ladd McConkey: 0.00.

That's painful.

Parker Washington didn't help much either at 2.00.

Houston's defense scored 4.00.

Jason Myers had 5.00.

Suddenly Alvin Kamara's 22.80, Chase Brown's 19.10, and Patrick Mahomes' 17.00 were trying to drag an entire roster uphill.

Now we get to the uncomfortable part.

Nico Collins scored 30.80 on the bench.

And unlike some of the ugly bench scores we've defended over the past few weeks, this one came with a warning before kickoff.

Nico was projected for 18.57.

Ladd McConkey was projected for 12.13.

The projection-optimal lineup wanted Nico in.

eduardobass7 did make one good change: Alvin Kamara replaced Jadarian Price, boosting the expected lineup and producing an actual 22.80–0.00 advantage.

Excellent move.

But Nico stayed on the bench.

Put Nico's 30.80 in for Ladd's zero and eduardobass7 reaches 122.40.

horns75 scored 123.88.

That's still a loss.

By 1.48 points.

Which somehow makes this more painful, not less.

The complete hindsight-optimal lineup gets eduardobass7 to 133.40, enough to win comfortably. But that would require several additional answers nobody could know beforehand.

The Nico decision?

That one the projections were already waving a little flag about.

horns75 moves to 3–1.

eduardobass7 falls to 3–1.

Both undefeated teams are gone in the same week.

And suddenly the top of the standings looks like rush-hour traffic.

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Closest Game of the Week

GOONIES MADE TWO LATE MOVES. WITHOUT THEM, BOSSCOE WINS.

Goonies Never Say Punt 120.82, Bosscoe 111.98

An 8.84-point margin normally wouldn't qualify as a nail-biter.

Week 4 simply didn't bother giving us anything closer.

But this matchup has a better story anyway.

Goonies entered as a 66.9% favorite, projected to win 121.87–109.49.

The final score came remarkably close to that expectation.

Goonies: projected 121.87, scored 120.82.

Bosscoe: initially projected 109.49, scored 111.98.

Pretty ordinary, right?

Not once we look at the lineup changes.

Before kickoff, Goonies made two meaningful swaps:

Michael Wilson replaced Justin Jefferson.

Aaron Jones replaced Rhamondre Stevenson.

The projections viewed those moves as basically a wash.

Wilson was projected slightly below Jefferson.

Jones was projected slightly above Stevenson.

Combined effect on the expected lineup:

About +0.15 points.

Actual effect?

Much larger.

Michael Wilson scored 16.50.

Justin Jefferson scored 0.00.

Aaron Jones scored 16.80.

Rhamondre Stevenson scored 18.40.

Net gain from the two moves:

14.90 points.

Now remove those changes.

Goonies falls from 120.82 to 105.92.

Bosscoe scored 111.98.

Without those adjustments, Bosscoe wins.

That's the kind of lineup management that deserves attention.

Not because somebody found the highest-scoring roster after the games were finished.

Because the moves were actually made before kickoff and changed the result.

Bosscoe deserves some credit too.

The earlier lineup had DeVonta Smith, who carried no usable projection in the snapshot and ultimately scored zero.

Bosscoe moved to RJ Harvey.

Harvey was projected for 11.08.

He scored 19.30.

Great move.

James Cook added 16.30, Amon-Ra St. Brown had 15.50, Cam Little scored 14.00, and Lamar Jackson delivered 18.88.

But Dalton Schultz managed only 2.90 and Jeremiyah Love scored 6.50.

Meanwhile, Bosscoe's bench had Quinshon Judkins at 21.60 and Rome Odunze at 15.40.

The hindsight-optimal lineup reaches 129.88, which would have won.

But those weren't obvious forecast-driven mistakes. The lineup Bosscoe actually used was stronger on paper than the one captured earlier in the week.

Sometimes both managers make reasonable moves.

One manager's moves just work better.

Goonies Never Say Punt improves to 3–1.

Bosscoe falls to 1–3.

And Bosscoe continues to own one of the strangest records in the league.

We'll get to that shortly.

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Scoreboard Detonation

ALL BALLZ ITCH SCORED 159.18 AND NOW LEADS THE ENTIRE LEAGUE IN POINTS. RECORD? 2–2.

ALL BALLZ ITCH 159.18, King iRok 129.48

ALL BALLZ ITCH was supposed to win this one.

The forecast gave him a 68.3% win probability and a projected 136.88–123.36 advantage.

He apparently found that insufficiently dramatic.

Tetairoa McMillan scored 45.20.

FORTY-FIVE POINT TWO.

He was projected for 13.98.

That's 31.22 points above expectation from one player.

Kenneth Walker piled on 30.90.

Brock Bowers scored 20.60.

Will Reichard somehow contributed 19.00 from the kicker spot.

Jaylen Warren added 15.60.

By the time Ja'Marr Chase and Garrett Wilson each stumbled to 5.70, it didn't matter.

The rest of the lineup had already committed enough damage.

ALL BALLZ ITCH beat the forecast by 22.30 points and finished at 159.18, the best score of Week 4.

King iRok's 129.48 would have been the third-highest score in the league this week.

He lost by 29.70.

That's fantasy scheduling for you.

Bijan Robinson scored 27.70.

Tee Higgins had 26.70.

Jake Bates gave him 18.00 from the kicker spot.

Jordan Love had 14.08.

Luther Burden added 11.40.

That is not a bad week.

It is simply not 159.

Naturally, King iRok also had enough bench production to make the final score irritating.

Kirk Cousins scored 23.60.

Carnell Tate scored 21.50.

Tony Pollard had 13.00.

Harold Fannin scored 11.70.

A perfect hindsight lineup reaches 162.60.

Technically, that's enough to beat ALL BALLZ ITCH.

But let's not pretend the answer was obvious beforehand.

The projection-optimal lineup would only have changed one meaningful piece, preferring Harold Fannin over Courtland Sutton. That version ultimately scores 139.78.

Better.

Still nowhere near enough.

This wasn't a coaching loss.

This was one team scoring 129.48 and drawing the guy who scored 159.18.

ALL BALLZ ITCH moves to 2–2.

King iRok falls to 1–3.

And now we get to the truly ridiculous part.

ALL BALLZ ITCH has scored 529.30 points this season.

That's the most in the entire league.

More than Darius35.

More than every 3–1 team.

Record?

2–2.

Fantasy football does not issue refunds.

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The Bench Report: Context Remains Undefeated

Week 4's loudest reserves included:

• Nico Collins — 30.80 on eduardobass7's bench
• Kyle Monangai — 28.00 on Darius35's bench
• Kirk Cousins — 23.60 on King iRok's bench
• Quinshon Judkins — 21.60 on Bosscoe's bench
• Carnell Tate — 21.50 on King iRok's bench
• Rhamondre Stevenson — 18.40 after being moved out of Goonies' lineup
• Ollie Gordon — 18.00 on ALL BALLZ ITCH's bench
• Devaughn Vele — 17.40 after being moved out of Darius35's lineup
• Tucker Kraft — 16.50 on Prestige WorldWide's bench
• DK Metcalf — 16.50 on ALL BALLZ ITCH's bench

The usual warning applies:

A big bench score does not automatically equal a bad decision.

Nico Collins is the strongest exception this week because the projections already preferred him over one of eduardobass7's starters.

Kyle Monangai's 28.00 looks brutal for Darius after the fact, but the submitted lineup was nearly projection-optimal before kickoff.

Kirk Cousins over Jordan Love would have helped King iRok, but the projection model did not tell us Cousins was about to win that comparison.

And Rhamondre Stevenson being removed by Goonies technically cost 1.60 actual points by itself—but the paired Michael Wilson move gained so much that the combined adjustments still flipped the matchup.

The box score tells us what happened.

The forecast tells us whether we should actually make fun of you for it.

Those are not always the same thing.

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Four Weeks In: Nobody Is Perfect and Everybody at the Top Has Company

Five Teams Are 3–1

Darius35.

Goonies Never Say Punt.

Estevan059.

eduardobass7.

horns75.

Five teams.

Same record.

And their paths could not look more different.

Darius has the strongest scoring total among them.

Estevan owns the best point differential at +85.76.

eduardobass7 started 3–0 before getting flattened in Week 4.

horns75 has the lowest scoring total of the group but keeps stacking wins.

Goonies just won a matchup that its late lineup decisions directly helped save.

Nobody has separation anymore.

ALL BALLZ ITCH Is 2–2 and Leads the League in Scoring

This may be the funniest number on the standings page.

529.30 points.

Most in the league.

Record:

2–2.

ALL BALLZ ITCH has scored more than every team above him in the standings.

The schedule has simply declined to care.

Bosscoe Is 1–3 With the Third-Most Points in the League

Remember when Bosscoe being 1–2 with the second-most points looked ridiculous?

Good news.

It got worse.

Bosscoe is now 1–3 with 509.68 points.

Only ALL BALLZ ITCH and Darius35 have scored more.

Bosscoe also has a positive 17.70 point differential.

A positive differential.

Third in league scoring.

One win.

This season is bullying him.

King iRok Is Also 1–3 Despite Cracking 500 Points

King iRok has scored 508.40.

That's only 1.28 fewer than Goonies, who is 3–1.

King iRok is 1–3.

The problem is on the other side of the scoreboard.

Opponents have scored 555.12 against him, the second-highest total in the league.

Which brings us to the undisputed champion of schedule misery.

Prestige WorldWide's Opponents Need to Relax

Four games.

602.62 points allowed.

Average opponent score:

150.66.

Every.

Single.

Week.

Prestige scored 122.92 this week.

That's a perfectly competitive score.

kristian scored 144.18.

Prestige's perfect hindsight lineup would have scored 141.62.

Still loses.

At some point, what exactly do you want this man to do?

Prestige is now 0–4 with a minus-158.92 differential.

Some of that is lineup performance.

A lot of it is the schedule repeatedly arriving with a baseball bat.

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Final Word

Week 4 changed the shape of the season.

The two undefeated teams are undefeated no more.

Darius35 finally had an off week.

eduardobass7 went from 3–0 to the lowest score on the board.

kristianP1 finally broke through, and did it with the best owner decision of the week while overcoming a 22.3% win probability.

Goonies made two changes that actually altered the winner of its matchup.

ALL BALLZ ITCH scored 159.18, climbed to the top of the league in total points, and somehow remains only 2–2.

Bosscoe and King iRok have now combined for more than 1,018 points and own a combined record of 2–6.

Prestige WorldWide's opponents continue to behave as if there is prize money attached to scoring 150 every week.

And above all of it sits a five-team pileup at 3–1.

Four weeks ago, we knew nothing.

Now we have contenders, unlucky teams, volatile teams, one schedule from hell and absolutely no undefeated team left to pretend it has figured this game out.

Perfect.

The standings are crowded.

The records are misleading.

The projections keep getting just enough right to make the misses hilarious.

And now every game involving those five 3–1 teams starts to matter a little more.

Week 5 just got interesting.