Underdogs Strike Back and Bosscoe Breaks the Scoreboard

Week 2 Looked at Week 1 and Said, "Cute."

Week 1 gave us bench disasters, heartbreak, and enough hindsight to keep a group chat arguing for days.

Week 2 decided that wasn't enough.

This time we got two legitimate upsets, two games decided by fewer than four points, one matchup that the forecast basically called a coin flip before turning into a 68.82-point public execution, and a 171.50-point eruption from a team that was projected for 121.50.

Yes.

Bosscoe beat his projection by exactly 50 points.

Across the league, the 10 teams combined for 1,246.18 points, an average of 124.62. That's a little quieter than Week 1 overall.

Bosscoe clearly did not receive that memo.

A bench explosion isn't automatically a bad coaching decision.

Sometimes you ignored the projections and got burned.

Sometimes you followed the projections and the Football Gods laughed directly in your face.

Week 2 gave us both.

Week 2 Awards

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Biggest Upsets

HORNS75 WALKED IN AT 38.4%, SCORED 103.68, AND SOMEHOW WALKED OUT 2–0

horns75 103.68, Estevan059 101.12

The Week 2 forecast had this one leaning toward Estevan059.

Projected score: Estevan059 115.94, horns75 106.76.

Estimated win probability: Estevan059 61.6%, horns75 38.4%.

So naturally, neither team reached its projection and the underdog won by 2.56 points.

Fantasy football remains committed to making all of us look stupid.

horns75 survived because two players did a tremendous amount of heavy lifting. Jonathan Taylor scored 29.20 and Matthew Stafford delivered 27.98, giving horns75 57.18 points from two roster spots.

After that?

Things got weird.

Ashton Jeanty managed 10.30. Emeka Egbuka had 10.30. Travis Etienne gave him 7.10. Deebo Samuel had 6.50.

And then there was Colston Loveland with 1.30 while George Kittle scored 18.00 on the bench.

Before everybody starts yelling at horns75, though, the expectations going into the week matter.

Loveland was projected for 11.58.

Kittle was projected for 10.66.

The decision was completely defensible before kickoff.

The result just aged like milk left in an H-E-B parking lot.

The same thing happened on the other side.

Estevan059 got monster performances from CeeDee Lamb (35.30), Jaylen Waddle (21.80), and Derrick Henry (17.70).

That's 74.80 points from three players.

And somehow the entire team finished with 101.12.

How?

Well, David Montgomery scored 4.40.

Caleb Williams scored 8.72.

DJ Moore scored minus-0.10.

And the Detroit defense scored minus-1.00.

That's how.

The brutal part is that Estevan had multiple hindsight paths to victory. Bo Nix scored 15.12 on the bench, 6.40 more than Caleb Williams. The Dallas defense scored 5.00, six more than Detroit.

Either one of those changes alone flips the result.

But again, the numbers before kickoff keep this from becoming lazy hindsight analysis.

Caleb was projected slightly ahead of Nix, 16.66 to 15.74. Dallas was only 0.28 projected points ahead of Detroit.

So no, this wasn't some spectacular owner meltdown.

This was a 61.6% favorite watching several reasonable decisions go sideways at the same time.

horns75 didn't dominate.

horns75 survived.

And at 2–0, I suspect he is perfectly comfortable with the distinction.

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EDUARDOBASS7 WAS THE UNDERDOG — THEN HE MADE ONE GREAT MOVE AND BLEW THE DOORS OFF

eduardobass7 138.38, King iRok 110.42

King iRok entered the matchup with a 60.8% win probability and a projected 124.24–115.68 edge.

eduardobass7 entered at 39.2%.

Then Sunday happened.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba scored 42.50.

Forty-two point five.

The man didn't beat his projection.

He launched it into another zip code.

JSN was projected for 18.72, meaning he outscored expectation by 23.78 points all by himself.

Patrick Mahomes joined the fun with 28.98, Parker Washington scored 16.80, and Tyler Warren added 14.40.

But the best part of this win happened before the final scores were known.

Earlier in the week, Nico Collins was in eduardobass7's lineup.

Before the games, he changed it.

Parker Washington went in. Nico Collins came out.

Parker Washington: 16.80.

Nico Collins: 0.00.

Now that is an owner decision worth celebrating.

No hindsight required.

No "well technically the optimal lineup says..." nonsense.

He made the change before the result, and it worked beautifully.

There was another interesting call at quarterback. Our projection-optimal build actually preferred Dak Prescott at 20.27 projected points over Mahomes at 17.66.

eduardobass7 stuck with Mahomes.

Mahomes scored 28.98.

Dak scored 29.76.

So yes, Dak technically won the hindsight battle by 0.78.

Nobody cares.

You don't apologize for 28.98 from your quarterback while you're winning by almost 28.

King iRok, meanwhile, had one of those afternoons where too many expected stars simply came in below expectation.

Bijan Robinson was projected for 22.41 and scored 11.10.

Drake Maye was projected for 18.89 and scored 9.02.

De'Von Achane scored 12.30 against a 16.88 projection.

Luther Burden finished with 6.20.

Minnesota's defense tried to drag the team back into it with 18.00, and Trey McBride delivered 18.10, but there was too much damage elsewhere.

Could King iRok have managed the lineup better in hindsight?

Sure. C.J. Stroud scored 17.02. Bhayshul Tuten had 14.20. The actual optimal lineup reaches 123.52, or 13.10 points better.

Still doesn't matter.

eduardobass7 scored 138.38.

Even King iRok's perfect hindsight lineup loses comfortably.

That's an upset.

Not because the favorite made one catastrophic mistake.

Because the underdog showed up, made a smart lineup adjustment, got a nuclear performance from JSN, and turned a projected loss into a 27.96-point win.

eduardobass7 is now 2–0.

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Nail Biter

THE MODEL SAID 0.85. THE FINAL SAID 3.38. DARIUS35 AND KRISTIANP1 DELIVERED EXACTLY THE STRESS WE WERE PROMISED.

Darius35 131.46, kristianP1 128.08

Finally, a projection that didn't get laughed out of the building.

Before kickoff:

Darius35 122.59.

kristianP1 121.74.

Projected difference: 0.85 points.

Win probability: 51.1% to 48.9%.

Basically, flip a coin and then spend three days pretending the coin has predictive value.

The final margin?

3.38 points.

This one was every bit as close as advertised.

Darius35 got 25.10 from Travis Kelce, 23.30 from Jahmyr Gibbs, 18.16 from Jalen Hurts, and 17.50 from Omarion Hampton.

Not one absurd 40-point explosion.

Just enough strong performances stacked together to survive.

kristianP1 nearly answered with one of the biggest individual performances of the week.

Davante Adams scored 39.50.

He was projected for 12.15.

That is a 27.35-point beatdown of his own projection.

Jake Ferguson added 20.30, Chuba Hubbard scored 14.40, Bucky Irving had 13.00, and the Rams defense produced 12.00.

And kristianP1 deserves credit for something else.

Earlier in the week, Puka Nacua was in the starting lineup.

Before the games, kristianP1 replaced him with Chuba Hubbard.

Puka: 0.00.

Chuba: 14.40.

That is a good decision.

Especially after Week 1's bench catastrophe, kristianP1 apparently spent the week staring at the lineup screen like it owed him money.

Unfortunately, football still found a new way to hurt him.

Jared Goff scored 29.78 on the bench.

Justin Herbert scored 9.88 in the lineup.

Stefon Diggs scored 21.70 on the bench.

George Pickens scored 10.00.

Rachaad White scored 14.30 on the bench.

Javonte Williams scored 8.00.

Put all the hindsight pieces together and kristianP1's optimal lineup reaches 165.98.

That sounds awful.

Until we look at what was known beforehand.

The projection-optimal lineup was only 0.69 points better than the lineup kristianP1 submitted.

Herbert was projected slightly ahead of Goff.

Pickens was projected comfortably ahead of Diggs.

Javonte Williams was projected well ahead of Rachaad White.

So this is where Week 2's new data earns its keep.

If we only looked backward, we'd roast kristianP1 for leaving 37.90 points on the table.

If we look at the decision at the time?

Most of those calls made sense.

That is fantasy football in one matchup: good process, smart late adjustment, monster Davante Adams game...

...and a 3.38-point loss anyway.

Darius35 improves to 2–0.

kristianP1 falls to 0–2.

And somehow those records don't tell you nearly enough about how close this game really was.

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Blowout of the Week

THE FORECAST CALLED THIS A COIN FLIP. BOSSCOE RESPONDED WITH 171.50 AND LAUGHED.

Bosscoe 171.50, Prestige WorldWide 102.68

I need everybody to appreciate just how ridiculous this matchup became.

Projected matchup:

Bosscoe 121.50.

Prestige WorldWide 121.44.

Difference: 0.06 points.

Win probability:

Bosscoe 50.1%.

Prestige WorldWide 49.9%.

You could not design a more even matchup if you tried.

Then Bosscoe beat him by 68.82 points.

SIXTY-EIGHT POINT EIGHTY-TWO.

What happened?

Almost everything.

Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 35.20, beating his projection by 17.77.

DeVonta Smith scored 27.70, nearly 13 above projection.

Dalton Schultz scored 26.00, more than doubling his 10.39 projection.

The New England defense scored 23.00 after being projected for 7.51.

James Cook added 20.90.

Five starting spots.

132.80 points.

Bosscoe could have left the quarterback, kicker, two other skill positions, and a chair from the kitchen empty and still had a respectable fantasy score.

And here's the most insulting part:

Bosscoe's submitted lineup was exactly the projection-optimal lineup.

Projected points left on the bench: 0.00.

This wasn't some accidental 171 where half the correct players just happened to fall into the lineup.

The lineup process said, "Yep, this is the lineup."

Then that lineup beat its projection by 50.00 points.

Prestige WorldWide never had a chance.

And to be fair, Prestige WorldWide did get good games from Christian McCaffrey (22.60), Chris Olave (22.60), and Sam LaPorta (17.20).

That's not nothing.

But Saquon Barkley scored 3.00.

Malik Nabers scored 1.10.

Terry McLaurin had 7.00.

When the other guy is approaching 172, you need everybody.

Prestige WorldWide's perfect hindsight lineup only reaches 119.18.

Bosscoe's actual lineup scored 171.50.

So before anybody fires the coach, changes the franchise name, or starts offering half the roster in the trade block:

There was no lineup solution here.

The solution was apparently to petition the commissioner to make Bosscoe stop scoring.

Bosscoe moves to 1–1 and now has 298.76 total points through two weeks.

That's the most points scored by anyone in the league.

Yes, more than every 2–0 team.

We'll come back to that.

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Favorite Takes Care of Business

GOONIES NEVER SAY PUNT WAS SUPPOSED TO WIN. JOSH ALLEN MADE SURE THERE WASN'T MUCH DEBATE.

Goonies Never Say Punt 137.92, ALL BALLZ ITCH 120.94

Not every game needs a plot twist.

Goonies Never Say Punt entered Week 2 as the strongest favorite on the board, carrying a 63.0% win probability and a projected 10.30-point edge.

Goonies won by 16.98.

Sometimes the forecast is simply correct.

The biggest reason was Josh Allen, who dropped 40.82 points against a projection of 22.01.

That's almost 19 points above expectation from the quarterback spot.

Dalton Kincaid piled on 22.50, Brandon Aubrey somehow delivered 17.00 from the kicker spot, and Kyren Williams added 15.70.

Goonies needed those explosions because a few big names were decidedly less helpful.

Justin Jefferson scored 8.50.

Rhamondre Stevenson scored 3.60.

Cam Skattebo had 9.50.

Still didn't matter.

ALL BALLZ ITCH actually put together several strong individual performances.

Ja'Marr Chase scored 26.50.

Kenneth Walker had 23.80.

Garrett Wilson scored 16.70.

Tetairoa McMillan added 15.10.

That's a perfectly respectable top end.

But Jayden Daniels finished at 14.74, Baltimore's defense had only 3.00, and there just wasn't enough production at the bottom of the lineup to keep pace with Josh Allen going berserk.

There was one interesting lineup decision before kickoff.

ALL BALLZ ITCH originally had Jaylen Warren in the lineup.

Before kickoff, Jacory Croskey-Merritt replaced him.

The projections actually supported that move:

Croskey-Merritt: 12.42 projected.

Warren: 11.56 projected.

Actual result?

Croskey-Merritt: 5.80.

Warren: 9.70.

The move cost 3.90 points.

And this is exactly why the before-kickoff context matters.

Was it the wrong result?

Yes.

Was it some ridiculous decision worthy of public humiliation?

No.

The projections slightly preferred the move.

It just didn't work.

And even those extra 3.90 points wouldn't have changed a 16.98-point loss.

Goonies Never Say Punt is now 2–0 and has scored 290.78 points, the most among the league's four undefeated teams.

No drama required.

Just a very good start.

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The Bench Report: Loud Doesn't Always Mean Wrong

Week 2 had some enormous scores sitting on fantasy benches:

• Jared Goff — 29.78 on kristianP1's bench
• Dak Prescott — 29.76 on eduardobass7's bench
• Brock Purdy — 28.48 on Darius35's bench
• George Kittle — 18.00 on horns75's bench
• C.J. Stroud — 17.02 on King iRok's bench
• Harrison Butker — 16.00 on Goonies Never Say Punt's bench

Normally this is where everybody points at the manager and starts laughing.

Week 2 is a perfect example of why that's too easy.

Herbert was projected slightly above Goff.

Hurts was projected slightly above Purdy.

Loveland was projected slightly above Kittle.

Mahomes versus Dak was close enough that arguing about a 0.78-point hindsight difference would require a level of pettiness even this article isn't prepared to reach.

The bench absolutely matters.

But the useful question isn't simply:

"Who scored more after the games ended?"

It's:

"Was there a good reason to make the other decision before they started?"

Sometimes the answer is yes.

Sometimes the answer is kristianP1 in Week 1.

We haven't forgotten.

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Two Weeks In, the Standings Are Already Lying to Us

Here are the cumulative standings after Week 2:

And now for the fun part.

Bosscoe Is 1–1 and Has Scored More Than Everybody

298.76 points.

That's the highest total in the league.

Goonies Never Say Punt is 2–0 with 290.78.

Darius35 is 2–0 with 284.18.

Bosscoe has outscored both of them and is sitting at 1–1 because fantasy football does not care about justice.

King iRok Is 0–2 and Has Outscored a 2–0 Team

King iRok has scored 244.84 points.

horns75 has scored 219.18.

That's 25.66 more points for King iRok.

Records?

horns75: 2–0.

King iRok: 0–2.

Please direct all complaints to the scheduling department.

Prestige WorldWide Would Like Everyone to Stop Scoring

Prestige WorldWide has allowed 324.36 points through two weeks.

That's an average opponent score of 162.18.

At some point, this stops being a fantasy football schedule and starts looking personal.

Prestige WorldWide is 0–2 with a minus-108.42 point differential, but when the opposition is averaging more than 162 against you, lineup advice starts to feel a little rude.

Four Teams Remain Perfect

Goonies Never Say Punt, Darius35, eduardobass7, and horns75 are all 2–0.

They have arrived there in very different ways.

Goonies has been the highest-scoring undefeated team.

Darius survived the week's closest game.

eduardobass7 just turned a 39.2% win probability into a decisive win.

horns75 is 2–0 despite scoring only 219.18 total points.

Nobody cares how pretty the wins are in the standings.

They all count the same.

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Final Word

Week 2 was better than Week 1 for one big reason:

Now we can judge the results against what was expected before the games happened.

That changes the story.

horns75 didn't just beat Estevan059. He overcame a 38.4% win probability.

eduardobass7 didn't just score 138.38. He made a smart lineup change before kickoff, watched Parker Washington score 16.80 while Nico Collins scored zero, and then knocked off a 60.8% favorite.

kristianP1 didn't simply "leave 37.90 points on the bench." Most of those decisions were completely reasonable based on the information available beforehand. The outcome was painful. The process wasn't nearly as bad.

ALL BALLZ ITCH made a lineup change that the projections actually supported and got punished for it anyway.

And Bosscoe?

Bosscoe looked at a matchup projected to be separated by six hundredths of a point and won by 68.82.

There is no model for that.

There is only staring at the score and saying:

"What in the world just happened?"

Two weeks are gone.

Four teams are undefeated.

Four teams are still hunting for their first win.

The league's highest-scoring team is sitting in the middle at 1–1.

And an 0–2 team has already outscored one of the teams sitting at 2–0.

Perfect.

That's exactly the kind of nonsense fantasy football was invented for.

Week 3 has a lot to live up to.