King iRok Erupts, Prestige Won't Stop and the Favorites Sweep

Week 7 Was Chalk — Just Not the Boring Kind

After six weeks of underdogs crashing the party, Week 7 finally gave the favorites a clean sweep.

Five matchups. Five favorites. Five wins.

No 22% miracle.

No 40% ambush.

No projected favorite getting mugged in broad daylight.

For once, the numbers got to walk around with their chest out.

That does not mean the week was boring.

King iRok — the same team that entered Week 7 at 1–5 despite sitting near the top of the league in scoring — detonated for 178.16 points, the second-highest score of the season, and beat Estevan059 by 80.84.

That is now the largest margin we've seen all year.

Prestige WorldWide, once 0–4 and buried under the schedule from hell, won its third straight game.

kristianP1 followed last week's 78-point survival act by scoring 130.82 with the exact hindsight-optimal lineup.

Goonies Never Say Punt and horns75 delivered the week's only real sweat, finishing just 3.12 points apart.

And ALL BALLZ ITCH, still the league's scoring leader, discovered that even a team averaging ridiculous numbers can occasionally post a 94.40 and get sent home quietly.

Week 7 produced 1,211.82 total points, or 121.18 per team.

That's a healthy rebound from Week 6's 108.97 average, but nowhere near the Week 5 fireworks.

The scoring was normal again.

The standings are not.

Week 7 Awards

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King iRok Finally Gets Paid

KING IROK HAS BEEN SCORING ALL YEAR. THIS TIME THE SCHEDULE FORGOT TO PUNCH HIM IN THE FACE.

King iRok 178.16, Estevan059 97.32

There are wins.

There are blowouts.

And then there is whatever King iRok just did to Estevan059.

The forecast already liked King.

Projected score:

King iRok 125.43.

Estevan059 105.25.

Win probability:

King iRok 72.4%.

Estevan059 27.6%.

The favorite was supposed to win.

Nobody said anything about an 80.84-point demolition.

King didn't merely beat the projection.

He scored 52.73 points above it.

And the lineup was relentless.

Tony Pollard scored 36.50.

Trey McBride scored 27.10.

Tee Higgins scored 26.80.

Luther Burden scored 23.70.

Jordan Love added 17.96.

Bijan Robinson had 17.20.

Minnesota's defense scored 10.00.

Jake Bates added 9.00.

Carnell Tate was the "weak link" at 9.90.

Imagine scoring 9.90 and being the disappointment.

King's nine starters combined for 178.16, which now stands as the second-highest team score of the season behind only ALL BALLZ ITCH's 191.26 from Week 5.

And yes, there were still more points available.

KC Concepcion scored 23.20 on the bench.

A perfect hindsight lineup reaches 191.46.

But let's not get greedy.

The submitted lineup was already the projection-optimal lineup before kickoff.

There was no decision problem here.

King chose exactly what the forecast wanted and then watched nearly everybody outperform it.

Estevan059 had the opposite afternoon.

CeeDee Lamb showed up with 24.40.

Caleb Williams scored 22.12.

Ka'imi Fairbairn added 11.00.

After that, things got thin.

Derrick Henry: 5.90.

J.K. Dobbins: 8.30.

Isaiah Likely: 3.20.

Jaylen Waddle: 8.80.

Marvin Harrison Jr.: 7.60.

Detroit's defense: 6.00.

There were better scores on the bench.

Bo Nix had 26.18.

Kyle Pitts scored 13.20.

The perfect hindsight lineup gets Estevan to 111.38.

King scored 178.16.

So, no.

We're not conducting a coaching investigation.

We're calling the coroner.

King iRok improves to 2–5.

Estevan059 falls to 4–3.

And now for the part that makes the standings look completely ridiculous:

King has scored 921.72 points this season.

That's the second-most in the entire league.

Record?

2–5.

If there was ever a week for King to stare at the schedule and scream, "SEE? THIS IS WHAT I'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT," this was it.

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Prestige WorldWide Refuses to Stay Dead

0–4 HAS BECOME 3–4. AT SOME POINT THIS STOPS BEING A CUTE LITTLE COMEBACK.

Prestige WorldWide 140.38, eduardobass7 101.98

Remember Prestige WorldWide at 0–4?

The endless points against?

The weekly section where we calculated how many hundreds of points the schedule had dumped on him?

That team is gone.

Prestige has won three straight games.

Week 5: win.

Week 6: win.

Week 7: another win, this time by 38.40 points.

The forecast had Prestige as a solid favorite:

Prestige 117.58.

eduardobass7 104.91.

Win probability:

Prestige 64.5%.

eduardobass7 35.5%.

Prestige did more than handle business.

He beat his submitted-lineup projection by 22.80 points.

Joe Burrow scored 28.88.

Christian McCaffrey added 22.00.

Omar Cooper Jr. scored 22.50.

Emanuel Wilson had 18.50.

Malik Nabers scored 18.10.

Pittsburgh's defense added 9.00.

Tyler Loop scored 7.00.

Even with Sam LaPorta stumbling to 2.80, the lineup reached 140.38.

And here's where the owner decision gets interesting.

The projection-optimal lineup wanted Saquon Barkley and Breece Hall in the lineup.

Prestige went with Emanuel Wilson and Omar Cooper Jr. instead.

On paper, that decision sacrificed 8.74 projected points.

Actual result?

Wilson + Cooper:

41.00 points.

Saquon + Breece:

15.10 points.

Prestige ignored the safer projection build and gained 25.90 actual points.

That is not hindsight.

Those were the submitted starters before kickoff.

Sometimes following the projections is smart.

Sometimes you tell the projections to go sit in the corner and your guys reward you.

eduardobass7 did make the necessary bye-week adjustment, replacing Parker Washington's 0.0 projection with Chase Brown.

That's roster maintenance.

No medal required.

The more interesting decision came at quarterback.

Dak Prescott started with a 16.07 projection.

Drake Maye sat on the bench with a 21.70 projection.

Actual scores?

Dak: 23.28.

Maye: 28.44.

Maye would have gained 5.16.

Still nowhere near enough.

The perfect hindsight lineup only gets eduardobass7 to 110.04.

Prestige scored 140.38.

This wasn't lost at quarterback.

It was lost because Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 31.30 and Dak's solid game were surrounded by too many single-digit scores.

Prestige WorldWide improves to 3–4.

eduardobass7 falls to 3–4.

Three weeks ago Prestige looked buried.

Now he's one game under .500 and tied with half the league.

That escalated quickly.

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Perfect Means Perfect

KRISTIANP1 LEFT EXACTLY ZERO POINTS ON THE TABLE — AND NEEDED THE RIGHT TIGHT END TO WIN.

kristianP1 130.82, Bosscoe 123.22

kristianP1's season continues to make absolutely no sense.

Week 5:

176.34 points. Loss.

Week 6:

78.06 points. Win.

Week 7:

130.82 points. Perfect lineup. Win.

We're finally getting somewhere.

The forecast gave kristian a modest edge:

kristianP1 117.72.

Bosscoe 112.02.

Win probability:

56.7% to 43.3%.

Then kristian made two changes before kickoff.

One was routine.

Cameron Dicker carried a 0.0 projection because of the bye, so Matt Gay replaced him.

That's not wizardry.

That's remembering what week it is.

The other move mattered.

Dallas Goedert replaced Jake Ferguson.

Projected points:

Goedert: 11.54.

Ferguson: 7.84.

The numbers preferred Goedert before kickoff.

Actual result?

Goedert: 9.80.

Ferguson: 0.00.

And the final margin was 7.60.

Leave Ferguson in and kristian scores 121.02.

Bosscoe scored 123.22.

That move changed the winner.

But kristian's week gets even better.

After the games:

Actual lineup: 130.82.

Perfect hindsight lineup: 130.82.

There is not one legal combination of players on that roster that scores more.

Bucky Irving led the team with 24.00.

Puka Nacua scored 21.80.

Javonte Williams added 21.50.

Jared Goff had 18.02.

George Pickens scored 15.70.

Chuba Hubbard added 10.00.

Goedert had 9.80.

Matt Gay scored 8.00.

The Rams defense managed only 2.00.

And somehow the whole thing was still perfectly optimized.

The bench?

Wan'Dale Robinson was the leading scorer there at 4.70.

Everybody else scored zero.

There was nowhere else to look.

Bosscoe actually made a strong move too.

Quinshon Judkins replaced RJ Harvey.

The projections barely separated them:

Judkins: 11.25.

Harvey: 11.05.

Actual result:

Judkins: 23.40.

Harvey: 14.00.

Bosscoe gained 9.40 points from the move.

Without it, this matchup isn't even close.

Jameson Williams also exploded for 26.10, Amon-Ra St. Brown scored 24.20, Josh Jacobs had 20.10, and C.J. Stroud scored 16.52.

Bosscoe's hindsight-optimal lineup reaches 135.32.

Enough to win if we're allowed to take the test after seeing the answer key.

But the main missed piece was RJ Harvey replacing Jalen Coker after the fact, and Coker carried the much stronger projection entering the week.

That's hindsight, not malpractice.

kristianP1 improves to 3–4.

Bosscoe falls to 3–4.

And for one glorious week, kristian's lineup contains no "what if."

He got every possible point.

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The Scoring Leader Found Gravity

ALL BALLZ ITCH WAS PROJECTED FOR 133.58. THE SCOREBOARD RETURNED 94.40.

Darius35 115.82, ALL BALLZ ITCH 94.40

This matchup was supposed to be the closest thing Week 7 had to a true coin flip.

Projected score:

Darius35 133.94.

ALL BALLZ ITCH 133.58.

Projected margin:

0.36 points.

Win probability:

Darius35 50.4%.

ALL BALLZ ITCH 49.6%.

You could not split these teams much more evenly.

Then both came in under projection.

Darius by 18.12 points.

ALL BALLZ ITCH by 39.18.

The league's scoring leader suddenly posted the lowest score of Week 7.

Fantasy football has apparently discovered gravity.

Darius didn't exactly light up the scoreboard.

He just had enough.

Zay Flowers scored 27.70.

D'Andre Swift had 19.00.

Jahmyr Gibbs scored 17.30.

Brock Purdy added 14.02.

Christian Watson scored 10.70.

Cincinnati's defense chipped in 10.00.

The rest was mostly survival.

Travis Kelce: 8.40.

Denzel Boston: 5.70.

Spencer Shrader: 3.00.

The hindsight-optimal lineup gets Darius to 135.52, with Devaughn Vele and Chase McLaughlin improving a couple of spots.

But 115.82 was plenty.

ALL BALLZ ITCH simply could not get anything going.

Jaylen Warren scored 16.70.

Ja'Marr Chase had 17.20.

Kyler Murray scored 13.90.

Brock Bowers added 13.30.

Will Reichard scored 12.00.

And then:

Kenneth Walker: 9.70.

Tetairoa McMillan: 8.00.

Garrett Wilson: 4.60.

San Francisco defense: minus-1.00.

That will do it.

There were points on the bench.

Braelon Allen scored 19.40.

Ollie Gordon scored 17.30.

Rico Dowdle scored 14.60.

A perfect hindsight lineup reaches 116.80.

Ironically, that would have beaten Darius by 0.98.

So if we're allowed to know the future, this was winnable.

Before kickoff?

Not so much.

The submitted ALL BALLZ ITCH lineup was already the projection-optimal lineup.

Kenneth Walker was projected for 19.27.

Braelon Allen was projected for 7.34.

Garrett Wilson carried a 16.90 projection.

Ollie Gordon sat at 13.10.

Nobody looking at those numbers beforehand says, "Obviously bench Walker and Wilson."

The decisions were fine.

The results stunk.

Darius35 improves to 5–2 and takes a share of first place.

ALL BALLZ ITCH falls to 4–3.

And after scoring 191.26 in Week 5, 131.00 in Week 6 and 94.40 in Week 7, the league's scoring leader has apparently decided to explore the entire emotional spectrum.

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The Forecast Actually Nailed One

GOONIES AND HORNS75 WERE PROJECTED TO BE CLOSE. THEY FINISHED 3.12 APART.

Goonies Never Say Punt 116.42, horns75 113.30

After everything these projections have endured this season, we should probably let them enjoy this one.

Goonies entered as the favorite:

Goonies 115.14.

horns75 101.98 in the early lineup snapshot.

Win probability:

65.1% Goonies.

34.9% horns75.

But horns75's early lineup still contained two 0.0-projection bye-week spots:

Emeka Egbuka.

Jacksonville's defense.

Both were replaced before kickoff, as they should have been.

Chris Godwin Jr. went into the lineup.

Cleveland's defense replaced Jacksonville.

Routine bye-week maintenance.

Nothing heroic.

Once those necessary changes were made, horns75's active lineup carried roughly a 113-point expectation.

Actual score?

113.30.

That's almost comically accurate.

Goonies was projected around 115.

Actual?

116.42.

Final margin:

3.12 points.

For once the numbers can take a victory lap.

Goonies got 22.50 from Rhamondre Stevenson.

Kyren Williams scored 18.10.

Tyler Shough had 14.82.

Hunter Henry scored 14.10.

Brandon Aubrey added 14.00.

Michael Wilson had 10.60.

Matthew Golden scored 9.90.

Justin Jefferson had 8.40.

Denver's defense added 4.00.

No monster performance.

Just enough.

horns75 answered with a balanced lineup of his own.

Ashton Jeanty scored 21.60.

Drake London had 19.60.

Jonathan Taylor scored 19.00.

Matthew Stafford added 18.50.

George Kittle scored 14.80.

The problem was lower down the lineup.

Chris Godwin scored 6.70.

Xavier Worthy had 4.10.

Jake Elliott scored 3.00.

Cleveland's defense added 6.00.

And yes, Colston Loveland scored 19.90 on the bench.

Put him into the perfect hindsight lineup and horns75 reaches 129.10.

Enough to win.

But Loveland was projected for only 9.82.

Worthy was at 11.07.

Godwin was at 11.40.

That is exactly the kind of bench score that looks obvious on Tuesday and wasn't obvious on Saturday.

Goonies had one of those too.

Cam Skattebo scored 19.10 from a projection of only 5.02.

The perfect Goonies lineup reaches 134.12.

Nobody was realistically starting him based on that expectation.

So the matchup comes down to what it looked like in real time:

Two reasonable lineups.

Two scores almost exactly where expected.

A 3.12-point finish.

Goonies Never Say Punt improves to 5–2.

horns75 falls to 3–4.

Sometimes the weirdest thing fantasy football can do is behave normally.

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The Bench Report: Bye Weeks Are Maintenance, Not Genius

Week 7's loudest bench scores included:

• KC Concepcion Jr. — 23.20 on King iRok's bench
• Drake Maye — 28.44 on eduardobass7's bench
• Tre Tucker — 21.30 on Prestige WorldWide's bench
• Colston Loveland — 19.90 on horns75's bench
• Braelon Allen — 19.40 on ALL BALLZ ITCH's bench
• Cam Skattebo — 19.10 on Goonies Never Say Punt's bench
• Ollie Gordon II — 17.30 on ALL BALLZ ITCH's bench
• Devaughn Vele — 16.40 on Darius35's bench
• Tucker Kraft — 14.80 on Prestige WorldWide's bench
• Rico Dowdle — 14.60 on ALL BALLZ ITCH's bench

And Week 7 gives us a useful reminder about interpreting the early lineup data.

A 0.0 projection means the player is on bye.

Replacing that player is not a stroke of managerial genius.

It's the minimum requirement for operating a fantasy team.

horns75 replaced two bye-week slots.

eduardobass7 replaced Parker Washington's bye-week zero.

kristianP1 replaced Cameron Dicker's bye-week zero.

Good.

That's what you're supposed to do.

The decisions worth discussing are what happens after the bye spots are handled.

Prestige chose lower-projected active players over higher-projected alternatives and got rewarded.

kristian chose Goedert over Ferguson and directly flipped the winner.

Bosscoe chose Judkins over Harvey and gained 9.40 points.

Those are actual lineup decisions.

And, importantly, nobody appears to have left a bye-week zero in the final starting lineup.

Congratulations, everyone.

The league successfully cleared the lowest possible bar.

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Seven Weeks In: Two Teams at 5–2, Five Teams at 3–4 and King iRok Breaking the Standings

Darius35 and Goonies Sit on Top at 5–2

Darius35 and Goonies Never Say Punt have separated themselves by one game.

Darius has scored 894.42.

Goonies has scored 830.06.

Different scoring profiles, same record.

Goonies also owns the league's best point differential at +84.66.

Darius has been the stronger raw scorer of the two.

For now, they share the top.

ALL BALLZ ITCH Still Leads the League in Points

Even after posting the lowest score of Week 7:

945.96 season points.

Still first.

But the lead is shrinking.

King iRok is now only 24.24 points behind after his 178-point eruption.

The bigger issue for ALL BALLZ ITCH is the points-against column.

936.54 allowed.

That's more than every team except King iRok.

The scoring has needed to be elite just to reach 4–3.

King iRok Is Last and Has the Second-Most Points

We need to spend another moment on this because it is ridiculous.

921.72 points scored.

Second in the league.

921.86 points allowed.

Point differential:

minus-0.14.

Record:

2–5.

King has essentially scored the exact same number of points as his opponents over seven weeks.

And somehow that has turned into two wins and five losses.

That might be the strangest résumé in the league.

The problem isn't that King can't score.

Week 7 just screamed that at us.

The problem is that the points keep arriving at extremely inconvenient times.

Five Teams Are 3–4

Bosscoe.

kristianP1.

Prestige WorldWide.

eduardobass7.

horns75.

Five teams.

Same record.

That means half the league is sitting exactly one game below .500.

One good week can launch somebody up the standings.

One bad week can send somebody right back toward the bottom.

Prestige WorldWide Is Suddenly Alive

Three straight wins.

From 0–4 to 3–4.

That is no longer just a funny turnaround story.

Prestige is tied with five teams fighting for position and is only one game behind the 4–3 group.

The points-against number is still ugly at 894.98.

But the schedule has stopped trying to kill him every Sunday, and the wins are finally accumulating.

Bosscoe Remains Better Than the Record

Bosscoe is 3–4 with 898.88 points scored and a +45.22 differential.

That's the third-highest scoring total in the league and one of the better differentials.

Another week, another reminder that win-loss records are very bad at telling the whole story.

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Final Word

Week 7 did something we haven't seen much this season.

The favorites behaved like favorites.

All five won.

But the stories underneath those wins were anything but ordinary.

King iRok finally got the kind of result his season-long scoring has deserved and dropped 178.16 in the process.

Prestige WorldWide won for the third week in a row and officially climbed out of the grave.

kristianP1 submitted a lineup that was both projection-optimal after the final changes and literally perfect after the games were played.

Goonies survived the closest matchup of the week and moved to 5–2.

Darius35 won an ugly coin flip and joined Goonies at the top.

ALL BALLZ ITCH reminded everybody that even the league's highest-scoring team can wake up one Sunday and find 94 points waiting for it.

And the standings?

Two teams are 5–2.

Two are 4–3.

Five are 3–4.

One is 2–5 despite having the second-most points in the entire league.

Seven weeks in, almost nobody has escaped the pack.

The playoff race isn't forming.

It's compressing.

And with half the league sitting at 3–4, Week 8 is about to start separating "rough start" from "actual problem."

Bring on Week 8.