2026 NFL PREVIEW: KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

A frustrating 6-11 campaign in 2025 masked a defense that held opponents to 19.3 points per game (sixth fewest in the league) while the offense mustered only 21.3 points per game (ranked 21st). That gap fueled an 11-6 mark against the spread alongside a 4-13 record toward game-total overs. Warren Sharp’s forecast anticipates a sharp rebound in 2026, projecting 10.5 wins and a first-place finish in the AFC West. Sharp's preseason betting snapshot listed Kansas City as favorites in 11 of 17 contests with a season-average spread of -2.9 points, stretching from -5.6 at home to -0.4 on the road. Navigating that bounce is aided by the league's 10th-easiest schedule on Sharp's scale, where 1 represents the easiest slate and 32 the hardest.

The foundation remains Andy Reid, whom Sharp ranks second among head coaches, with Eric Bieniemy back as offensive coordinator after Matt Nagy’s 2023–2025 stint. Patrick Mahomes is the other half of that pairing. He tore the ACL and LCL last December, had surgery on December 15, and then played every snap of the 31-10 Week 1 win over Denver. Sharp still ranks the quarterbacks fourth. The published secondary rank is 25th, a grade that predates L'Jarius Sneed's June return as the listed CB1.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Kenneth Walker III (RB), L'Jarius Sneed (CB), Khyiris Tonga (DT), and Alohi Gilman (S); Justin Fields (QB) (via trade).

Key Departures: Trent McDuffie (CB) to the Rams, Jaylen Watson (CB) to the Rams, Bryan Cook (S) to the Bengals, Leo Chenal (LB) to the Commanders, Gardner Minshew (QB) to the Cardinals, Jawaan Taylor (RT) to the Falcons, Marquise Brown (WR) to the Eagles, JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR), Joshua Williams (CB) to the Titans, Nazeeh Johnson (S), Isiah Pacheco (RB) to the Lions, Kareem Hunt (RB), Derrick Nnadi (IDL) to the Colts, Jerry Tillery (IDL) to the Colts, Dameon Pierce (RB) to the Eagles, Deon Bush (S), Mike Pennel (IDL), Robert Tonyan (TE), Mike Edwards (S), Shane Buechele (QB) to the Bills, Zacch Pickens (IDL) to the Giants, Keaontay Ingram (RB), Brandon George (LB), Eric Scott (CB), Charles Omenihu (EDGE), and Mike Danna (EDGE) to the Bills.

Kansas City signed Kenneth Walker III in free agency after Isiah Pacheco left for the Lions, Kareem Hunt and Keaontay Ingram moved on, and Dameon Pierce signed with the Eagles. Marquise Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are gone from the receiver room, Robert Tonyan is gone at tight end, and Jawaan Taylor is in Atlanta, where Jaylon Moore is now the listed right tackle. Behind Mahomes, Kansas City traded for Justin Fields after Gardner Minshew signed with the Cardinals and Shane Buechele left for the Bills.

Steve Spagnuolo heads into his eighth season with a rebuilt back seven. Trent McDuffie was traded to the Rams, and Jaylen Watson signed with the Rams in free agency. Joshua Williams went to the Titans, Bryan Cook signed with the Bengals, Leo Chenal joined the Commanders, and Charles Omenihu is among the club's listed losses. L'Jarius Sneed returned in June and is listed as CB1 next to first-rounder Mansoor Delane, with Alohi Gilman and Chamarri Conner at safety. Kader Kohou and Kaiir Elam, the Sharp dashboard corners, were terminated at final cuts on August 30, and Kohou later landed on the practice squad. Khyiris Tonga is the listed starting defensive tackle. Cooper McDonald went on IR on September 16 after the opener.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

Kansas City used the draft to restock a secondary that lost McDuffie (trade) and Watson (free agency) to the Rams. The front office traded up to sixth overall for LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane, who is now listed across from Sneed. Sharp calls that jump questionable capital, arguing Delane, Sonny Styles, or Caleb Downs could still have been there, but the physicality-for-press profile matches the need. The other first-rounder is Clemson defensive tackle Peter Woods at pick 29. Sharp likes the tools and warns against a big 2026 expectation: Woods posted a 4% pressure rate last season at Clemson, and the write-up frames him as a long-term piece beside Chris Jones rather than a finished rookie.

Oklahoma edge R. Mason Thomas is the second-rounder at pick 40. Sharp frames him as a passing-down athlete Spagnuolo can kick wide, and he already recorded a sack in the Denver opener while working behind George Karlaftis. Oregon’s Jadon Canady (fourth round, pick 109) is depth and special teams with a 2027 nickel path after Chamarri Conner. Fifth-rounder Emmett Johnson (pick 161) competes with Brashard Smith and Emari Demercado behind Walker. Cyrus Allen (fifth round, pick 176) is another speed receiver in a room that already has Xavier Worthy and Tyquan Thornton. Seventh-round quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (pick 249) is developmental depth behind Mahomes and Fields, with Sharp noting the 2025 oblique questions that helped him slide.

Sharp Forecasts Kansas City Chiefs with 10.5 Wins

Over Case: Warren Sharp’s 10.5-win forecast is a rebound from 6-11. Pythagorean math saw a +34 point differential and a 9.5-win team, and Sharp argues the 2025 club was worse than that one-factor look. Kansas City went 11-0 in one-score games in 2024 and 1-9 in one-score games in 2025, last in one-score win percentage, and Sharp treats that swing as volatility rather than Reid forgetting how to close. The Chiefs also added Walker, who posted a 14.9% rate of 10-plus-yard runs among 54 backs with 100-plus touches last season, while Hunt (6.1%) and Pacheco (8.5%) sat at the other end of that board. If the one-score tape mean-reverts and Walker supplies the explosive runs Kansas City has lacked since 2022, the over case is the version of 2026 where those two things show up.

Under Case: Sharp’s under case still starts with Mahomes’ knee. Week 1 already showed he can take the snaps. The remaining under is how that knee holds over a full season. Sharp still had him seventh in EPA per pass attempt, fifth in scramble EPA, and seventh in EPA on plays lasting more than 2.5 seconds, so a pocket-bound version is a different offense. Rice is a YAC specialist who had a knee procedure and a probation jail sentence, and he has played 28 of 51 possible regular-season games. Worthy ranked 59th in yards per route run, and Kelce grades closer to replacement than a difference-maker. Kansas City also went 4-3 when leading at halftime (.571, tied for 26th) after a 2022–2024 close rate of .903.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -2 days.

Warren Sharp’s rest-and-timing metrics show Kansas City working with a modest net deficit over the course of the campaign, finishing with minus-two net rest days versus its opponents. That gap places the Chiefs 19th in net rest edge rank, sitting in the bottom half of the league in terms of total recovery differential. Across the full slate, the board identifies seven distinct weeks featuring a non-zero rest differential. Looking at the component rankings, the Chiefs slot 10th in overall rest rank and 13th in prep rank. However, the club drops toward the harsher end of the spectrum in situational spots, ranking 18th in short-week road games, 26th in games off road Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football, and 29th in negated byes.

Those situational swings show up across Sharp’s week-by-week rest edges. The Chiefs opened on Monday Night Football against Denver with neutral rest, then host Indianapolis on Sunday Night Football at minus-one. Their largest single-game rest edge is a plus-seven home spot against the Chargers in Week 6 after a Week 5 bye, and Week 7 flips to minus-three at Seattle on Sunday Night Football. The first month also listed back-to-back road trips to Miami and Las Vegas.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Patrick Mahomes (11 INT), Chris Oladokun (2 FL), Kareem Hunt (1 FL), Gardner Minshew (1 INT). Takeaways: Jaylen Watson (2 INT), Jack Cochrane (1 INT, 1 FR), Christian Roland-Wallace (1 INT), Leo Chenal (1 INT), Drue Tranquill (1 FR), George Karlaftis (1 FR)

Kansas City lost 15 giveaways, fourth fewest in the league, and just three fumbles, which ranked first. The 12 interceptions thrown sat 17th. Patrick Mahomes had 11 of those interceptions, Gardner Minshew threw one, Chris Oladokun lost two fumbles, and Kareem Hunt lost one.

The defense forced 14 takeaways (26th), splitting 10 interceptions and four fumble recoveries for a minus-one net. Jaylen Watson led the 2025 takeaway board with two interceptions and is now with the Rams, and Leo Chenal’s interception traveled with him to Washington. Jack Cochrane, Christian Roland-Wallace, Drue Tranquill, and George Karlaftis remain from that 2025 group.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Patrick Mahomes 193 yards; Chris Oladokun 93 yards; Shane Buechele 22 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 39/814 ≈ 4.8% of shotgun plays; 5/196 ≈ 2.6% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Chris Jones (7), George Karlaftis (6), Charles Omenihu (3.5), Drue Tranquill (2)

Kansas City surrendered 47 total sacks in 2025, landing 22nd across the league in offensive line sacks taken. Those hits cost Patrick Mahomes 193 yards. Alignment dictated a large portion of the distribution. Kansas City saw 39 sacks occur across 814 shotgun plays, representing a 4.8% sack share of all shotgun snaps including runs. By comparison, 5 sacks occurred across 196 under-center plays, a 2.6% share of those snaps, alongside 3 sacks absorbed from pistol looks. Warren Sharp ranks the Chiefs offensive line 23rd heading into 2026.

On the defensive side of the ball, Kansas City produced 35 sacks to rank 22nd overall. Chris Jones set the pace with 7 sacks, followed by George Karlaftis with 6, Charles Omenihu with 3.5, and Drue Tranquill adding 2. The unit finished with 18 sacks when sending a standard four-man rush, while blitz packages yielded 6 sacks with five rushers, 5 with six rushers, and 2 with seven or more rushers, alongside 4 sacks generated from three-man fronts. By coverage alignment, the defense recorded 11 sacks in Cover 2, 7 in Cover 1, 6 in Cover 3, 5 in Cover 0, and 2 sacks apiece while operating in Cover 4 and 2-Man shells.

Return Touchdowns

Kickoff returner Nikko Remigio: 29 returns for 741 yards.

Punt returner Nikko Remigio: 25 returns for 191 yards.

Punt returns 32 for 259 yards; kickoff returns 66 for 1727 yards.

Kansas City scored zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns in 2025 and allowed zero. Nikko Remigio handled the listed work on both sides, 29 kickoffs for 741 yards and 25 punt returns for 191 yards, inside team totals of 32 punt returns for 259 yards and 66 kickoff returns for 1,727 yards.

Penalties

Offense: 69 penalties for 563 yards (#24). Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (19), Illegal Formation (4). Most flags in Shotgun (30), Under Center (3), Pistol (2). Most flagged players: Jawaan Taylor (10), Josh Simmons (7), Kingsley Suamataia (5).

Defense: 50 penalties for 388 yards (#21), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Holding (9), Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Offside (7). Most flags on Cover 1 (9), Cover 4 (5), Cover 3 (4). Most flagged players: Chris Jones (7), Nohl Williams (6), Charles Omenihu (5).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Kansas City took 119 penalties for 951 yards, 26th where #1 is fewest flags. The offense was 24th (69 for 563 yards), with 30 flags in shotgun, 3 under center, and 2 in pistol. Offensive holding (25) and false start (19) led the types. Jawaan Taylor led the offense with 10 flags before leaving for Atlanta, Josh Simmons had 7, and Kingsley Suamataia had 5.

The defense took 50 penalties for 388 yards (#21), including four special-teams offensive holding calls on punt returns. Coverage flags clustered in Cover 1 (9), Cover 4 (5), and Cover 3 (4). Defensive holding (9), defensive pass interference (8), and defensive offside (7) led the types. Chris Jones, Nohl Williams, and Charles Omenihu drew the most of those flags.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 797 plays, 44.2% success, 0.02 EPA/play (#17). Most efficient on early downs: Patrick Mahomes (40 plays, 0.51 EPA/play), Marquise Brown (52 plays, 0.50 EPA/play), Tyquan Thornton (24 plays, 0.49 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 189 plays, 40.2% success, -0.04 EPA/play (#20). Most efficient in the red zone: Marquise Brown (10 plays, 1.01 EPA/play), Patrick Mahomes (15 plays, 0.73 EPA/play), Rashee Rice (22 plays, 0.21 EPA/play).

On early downs, Mahomes recorded 0.51 EPA per play over 40 plays, Marquise Brown 0.50 over 52, and Tyquan Thornton 0.49 over 24. Brown is now with the Eagles.

In the red zone, Brown had 1.01 EPA per play on 10 plays, Mahomes 0.73 on 15, and Rashee Rice 0.21 on 22. As a team, early downs were 44.2% success and 0.02 EPA per play (#17) on 797 plays, and the red zone was 40.2% success and -0.04 EPA per play (#20) on 189 plays.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 7.0 (#2); they passed 61.9% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Patrick Mahomes (47.9% success on 537 pass plays), Chris Oladokun (25.8% success on 62 pass plays).

On rushes: Kareem Hunt (47.9% success on 163 rush plays), Isiah Pacheco (34.7% success on 118 rush plays), Patrick Mahomes (69.6% success on 56 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Kansas City tilted heavily toward the air last season, throwing on 60.2% of their offensive snaps to rank fifth in pass rate across the league, compared to a 39.8% rush rate that ranked 28th. That preference was even more pronounced in neutral game scripts, where the Chiefs posted a 7.0 neutral-down pass rate over expected, the second-highest mark in the NFL, while throwing on 61.9% of those downs. Despite leaning so heavily into the passing game with 631 total pass plays (ranking sixth), the efficiency was ordinary. The offense generated 5.77 yards per pass play (ranking 24th) and converted a 44.4% success rate through the air, which ranked 15th overall. Patrick Mahomes served as the pass success leader by logging a 47.9% success rate across 537 pass plays, while Chris Oladokun registered a 25.8% success rate on 62 pass plays.

When the Chiefs did keep the ball on the ground, their efficiency outpaced their overall volume. Kansas City dialed up only 417 rush plays, which ranked 26th in the league, but generated 4.38 yards per play (ranking 19th) and a 44.6% rushing success rate that ranked 10th. On play-by-play rush plays, Patrick Mahomes produced the highest mark at 69.6% across 56 rush plays. Among traditional ball-carriers, Kareem Hunt served as the team's rush success leader by posting a 47.9% success rate across 163 rush plays, while Isiah Pacheco recorded a 34.7% success rate over 118 rush plays. With both Hunt and Pacheco departing the roster, the ground attack will look entirely different as the Chiefs aim to preserve that top-ten rushing efficiency.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Kansas City generated 55 explosive plays for 1,690 yards in 2025, ranking 19th in raw explosive-play count across the league. The offense tilted overwhelmingly toward vertical passing to produce chunk gains, racking up 52 passing plays of 20 or more yards for 1,600 yards alongside just three explosive rushes for 90 yards. Tyquan Thornton led all individual playmakers by turning 11 receptions into 378 explosive yards, while Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy each produced nine explosive receptions for identical totals of 264 yards. Rashee Rice closely matched that output with nine explosive catches for 263 yards, and Marquise Brown added seven big receptions for 248 yards before his eventual departure to the Eagles. On the ground, Worthy supplied one explosive carry for 35 yards, and Kareem Hunt notched one 33-yard burst. When attacking opposing defensive schemes, the Chiefs generated their largest raw total against Cover 3, compiling 17 explosive plays for 509 yards, followed by Cover 1 with 13 explosives for 400 yards and Cover 2 with 11 big plays for 414 yards.

On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs defense yielded 50 explosive plays for 1,520 yards, which ranked seventh in the NFL for the fewest raw explosive plays allowed. Most explosives allowed came through the air, with 45 passing completions of 20 or more yards accounting for 1,328 yards, compared to only five explosive rushes yielding 192 yards. Courtland Sutton paced all opposing pass catchers by securing three explosive receptions for 64 yards against this unit. A group of seven other opponents collected two explosive catches apiece, including Nico Collins with 99 yards, Dalton Kincaid with 70 yards, and Troy Franklin with 67 yards. In terms of defensive structures, the largest raw volume of big gains conceded occurred while operating in Cover 1, which gave up 12 explosive plays for 352 yards. Cover 2 surrendered the next highest count with 11 explosives for 305 yards, while Cover 3 yielded eight explosive completions for 208 yards.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Kansas City built its 2025 structure around 11 personnel and mixed in two-tight-end sets. The offense deployed 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers) on 606 snaps, generating 1.33 full PPR fantasy points per play with Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Marquise Brown as the core pieces on the field. When shifting heavier into 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers), the unit logged 320 plays and produced 1.43 fantasy points per play, with Noah Gray joining Kelce alongside Hunt, Worthy, and Smith-Schuster. Heavier alignments included 68 plays in 13 personnel (one running back, three tight ends, and one wide receiver) that generated 1.05 fantasy points per play with Isiah Pacheco, Robert Tonyan, Gray, Kelce, and Worthy. The Chiefs also mixed in 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end, and two wide receivers) for 45 snaps, yielding 1.07 fantasy points per play while incorporating Brashard Smith alongside Hunt, Gray, Smith-Schuster, and Worthy.

Production differed noticeably by formation, with the team operating overwhelmingly out of spread looks. Kansas City aligned in the shotgun on 814 plays, capturing a 77.7% share of their offensive snaps and generating 1.47 fantasy points per play. Snaps from under center accounted for 196 plays, representing an 18.7% share that yielded 0.77 fantasy points per play across those run and pass opportunities. Pistol sets were used far more sparingly, totaling 37 plays (a 3.5% share) and producing 1.10 fantasy points per play. Woven throughout those distinct alignments, run-pass options served as an integrated play concept rather than a standalone formation, totaling 150 plays (a 14.3% share) and generating 1.04 fantasy points per play.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #25; play-action rank #32 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Pre-snap motion remained part of the Kansas City presentation in 2025, even at a lower clip than most of the league. The Chiefs used it on 522 plays, a 49.8% rate that ranked 25th, with a 46.7% success rate and 1.49 full-PPR fantasy points per play compared with 1.16 without motion. Play action sat at the bottom of the league's usage board: 105 plays, a 10.0% rate that finished 32nd, a 45.7% success rate, and 1.42 fantasy points per play with the fake against 1.31 without.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Patrick Mahomes endured an uneven 2025 that produced Kansas City’s first losing record with him as the starter, 6-8, inside a 6-11 team finish. He completed a career-low 62.7% of his passes (24th among qualified passers), 7.1 yards per attempt (15th), a career-low 4.4% touchdown rate (24th), and a 2.2% interception rate (21st). In the charted DraftKings sample he averaged 22.0 points across 14 games, with a 14.1 floor, a 31.5 ceiling, three Slate Hits, +0.11 EPA per dropback, and -2.7% CPOE. Kansas City went 0-3 without him down the stretch in 2025 and is 2-6 without him since he became the starter.

The 2026 passing question is how Kansas City manages the knee over a full season. Gardner Minshew left for the Cardinals and Shane Buechele for the Bills. Chris Oladokun remains after three DraftKings-tracked games (5.1 average, 2.3 floor, 7.7 ceiling, -0.50 EPA per dropback). Kansas City traded for Justin Fields from the Jets as the backup and drafted Nussmeier at 249. Sharp ranks the quarterbacks fourth. The offensive line is 23rd in Sharp’s unit ranks with Taylor gone to Atlanta and Jaylon Moore listed at right tackle. Walker’s early-down work is the schematic hedge if the staff wants fewer dropbacks while Kansas City manages Mahomes’ workload through September.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Travis Kelce remained the primary focal point of the Kansas City passing attack last season, leading the team with 108 total targets and posting a team-best +32.2 Receiving EPA across 17 games. Kelce commanded an active role on early downs, where his 85 targets accounted for a 21.1% target share, and generated 1.79 DraftKings fantasy points per target with a 6.3 air-yard average. Behind him at tight end, Noah Gray chipped in 37 targets with a 5.9 air-yard average across 13 appearances, though he managed -8.5 Receiving EPA. Looking into 2026, Kelce anchors the room alongside Gray following the offseason departures of Robert Tonyan and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

The wide receiver room experienced a split in usage patterns, anchored by high-demand underneath volume when Rashee Rice was available. In eight games, Rice logged 78 targets on an elite 0.30 targets per route run and commanded a 29.7% target share, leading the receiving corps with 19.2 DraftKings fantasy points per game and generating +10.6 Receiving EPA with an average depth of target of 4.5 air yards. Rice was also the clear priority in scoring territory, capturing a team-high 19 red-zone targets for a 23.5% red-zone target share. Marquise Brown, who departed in the offseason to join the Eagles, matched Kelce's 19.0% target share while posting 74 targets and +20.9 Receiving EPA over 16 games. Xavier Worthy saw 73 targets across 14 contests with a team-high 12.3 air yards per target, generating +12.1 Receiving EPA and handling 58 early-down looks, while JuJu Smith-Schuster operated as a secondary underneath option with 45 targets and an 11.9% target share in 16 appearances.

Heading into 2026, Warren Sharp ranks the receivers 20th, a grade that has to absorb Brown’s 74 targets and +20.9 Receiving EPA plus JuJu’s departure. Rice is the volume engine when he is on the field. He has played 28 of 51 possible regular-season games, and a later knee procedure plus a jail term for a probation violation are why that sample is so thin. He was a full participant on the Week 2 report. Worthy caught 42 of 73 for 532 yards and one score. Sharp gives injuries a partial pass and still flags three 80-plus-yard games in 34 appearances. Thornton was retained as the vertical piece (2.18 DraftKings points per target on 37 targets), and fifth-rounder Cyrus Allen (pick 176) adds more speed next to Worthy and Thornton. Jalen Royals remains developmental, with three targets.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Kansas City’s ground game in 2025 operated as a split backfield that yielded starkly contrasting efficiency outcomes. Kareem Hunt handled the primary rushing volume across 17 games, logging 163 rushing attempts. Hunt generated positive value on that workload, compiling +7.3 Rush EPA and adding +0.1 rushing yards over expected per attempt, alongside a 49.1% NFL+ success rate. In contrast, Isiah Pacheco registered 118 rushing attempts in 13 contests, struggling to generate positive returns with -15.9 Rush EPA, -0.4 RYOE per attempt, and a 37.3% NFL+ success rate. Hunt also emerged as the primary goal-line and red-zone hammer for the offense, handling 38 red-zone rushes and five red-zone targets across 43 total red-zone opportunities, producing nine combined red-zone touchdowns. Pacheco saw 20 red-zone rushes and four red-zone targets across 24 opportunities, resulting in two combined red-zone scores, while holdover Brashard Smith chipped in 10 red-zone carries and seven red-zone targets on 17 opportunities, reaching the end zone once.

The backfield is new now that Hunt, Pacheco, Pierce, and Ingram are gone. Kansas City signed Walker in free agency and drafted Emmett Johnson at 161 to compete with Smith and Demercado, and Sharp ranks the running backs 12th. Kansas City backs ranked 30th in yards after contact and matched a 5.3% explosive-run rate for a second straight year. Since 2022 they have 17 runs of 20-plus yards as a group while Walker alone has 32, and among 54 backs with 100-plus touches last season his 14.9% rate of 10-yard runs sat third. That is why he is here. In the Denver opener he had 191 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, and he steps into a red-zone tree that gave Hunt 38 rushes and nine combined scores a year ago.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Kareem Hunt 9 (8 rush, 1 rec); Rashee Rice 6 (1 rush, 5 rec); Marquise Brown 5 rec; Patrick Mahomes 5 rush; Travis Kelce 5 rec. Passing TDs: Patrick Mahomes 22, Chris Oladokun 1. Defense TDs: none in the nflverse season table. Special teams: Harrison Butker 33/38 FG, 31/35 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

Kansas City’s 2025 offensive scoring relied heavily on a concentrated group of skill contributors, though several primary finishers will not return. Kareem Hunt led the squad with nine total touchdowns, doing most of his damage near the goal line with eight rushing scores alongside one receiving score, while Marquise Brown chipped in five touchdown catches. Both served as vital red-zone assets but have since departed. Patrick Mahomes shouldered the rest of the finishing burden, throwing 22 touchdown passes while matching Travis Kelce’s five receiving touchdowns by using his legs to run in five scores of his own. Mahomes also spread targets to Rashee Rice, who found the end zone six times on five touchdown receptions and one rushing score. Reserve passer Chris Oladokun rounded out the passing production by connecting on one touchdown throw.

Beyond that offensive core, the defense logged no return touchdowns in the 2025 nflverse season table, and special teams scored zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns. Harrison Butker converted 33 of 38 field goals and 31 extra points on 35 tries. Those 2025 scoring marks now sit next to a 2026 offense that has to replace Hunt’s nine scores and Brown’s five.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Kansas City's lowest scoring quarter was the first, at 3.1 points per game (28th) and 15.1 full PPR fantasy points (25th). The second quarter was the offensive high, 6.9 real points (17th) and 23.2 fantasy points (14th). The second half was 4.7 points in the third (16th) with 21.7 fantasy points (seventh), then 6.4 points (16th) and 20.9 fantasy points (23rd) in the fourth.

The defense allowed its fewest points in the first quarter, 3.5 per game (third fewest). Opponent scoring was 6.0 in the second (12th fewest), 4.1 in the third (10th fewest), and 5.6 in the fourth (ninth fewest), with fantasy points allowed of 17.4, 20.8, 16.6, and 18.4 across those four periods.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #12, Secondary #25.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Nick Bolton led the club with 154 tackles; Chris Jones 7.0 sacks, George Karlaftis 6.0 sacks, Charles Omenihu 3.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Nick Bolton: 10 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD; Chamarri Conner: 4 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PD; Drue Tranquill: 10 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 1 PD; Bryan Cook: 1 TFL, 6 PD; Jaylen Watson: 3 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 2 INT, 6 PD; Trent McDuffie: 2 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 7 PD; Chris Jones: 12 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 2 PD; George Karlaftis: 10 TFL, 6.0 sacks, 2 PD; Charles Omenihu: 5 TFL, 3.5 sacks.

Kansas City’s front seven is the 2026 stabilizer on paper, ranked 12th, even though the 2025 sack total of 35 ranked 22nd. Nick Bolton paced the entire defense with 154 tackles, matching Drue Tranquill with 10 tackles for loss while adding an interception and six passes defensed. Tranquill added 103 tackles and two sacks. George Karlaftis had six sacks, 23 quarterback hits, and 10 tackles for loss across 48 stops. Leo Chenal (58 tackles, two sacks) joined the Commanders, Mike Danna signed with the Bills, and Charles Omenihu is a listed 2026 loss after 3.5 sacks in 2025. Ashton Gillotte is listed starting opposite Karlaftis after 38 tackles, eight quarterback hits, and an interception as a rookie, with R. Mason Thomas working behind Karlaftis and Khyiris Tonga the listed starting defensive tackle. Omarr Norman-Lott’s October ACL still points to a possible slow start.

The secondary is the heavier rebuild, and Sharp ranks it 25th, a grade that predates Sneed's return. McDuffie was traded to the Rams, and Watson signed with the Rams, while Cook left in free agency. The listed 2026 group is Sneed and Delane at corner with Gilman and Conner at safety. Conner (117 tackles, two sacks, one interception) is dealing with a knee issue after the opener.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Kansas City logged 149 snaps in Cover 2, 126 in Cover 1, and 121 in Cover 3, allowing 1.61, 1.71, and 1.65 fantasy points per play in those shells (12th, 15th, and 12th). On smaller samples, 2-Man allowed 1.08 per play across 41 snaps (3rd) and Cover 0 allowed 2.31 across 43 snaps (4th). Cover 4 was 2.21 per play on 70 snaps (21st), and Cover 6 was 2.84 on 22 snaps (27th).

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Harrison Butker: 33/38 FG, 31/35 PAT.

Matt Araiza led with 56 punts (25 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Nikko Remigio: 29 returns for 741 yards.

Punt returner Nikko Remigio: 25 returns for 191 yards.

Special teams tackler Cooper McDonald: 18 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Harrison Butker remains the foundation of Kansas City’s kicking operation, giving the unit reliable scoring range despite a few uncharacteristic misfires on conversion tries. Last season, Butker connected on 33 of his 38 field goal attempts, hitting an 86.8% clip that featured five makes from beyond 50 yards and a season-long strike of 59 yards. He also went 31-of-35 on extra-point opportunities. Matt Araiza handled punting duties throughout the year without a single block against his ledger, booting 56 punts and pinning opponents inside their own 20-yard line on 25 of those attempts to consistently flip field position.

Nikko Remigio handled both return jobs in the 2025 table, 29 kickoffs for 741 yards and 25 punt returns for 191 yards. Cooper McDonald led coverage tackles with 18 that season and went on IR on September 16 after the opener.

Penalty Analysis

Warren Sharp’s Penalties & Discipline grade for Kansas City is a C. Sharp ranked the Chiefs fifth in penalties per game, a break from the last decade, and the No. 1 penalized road team, with a 3.55 home-versus-road gap. At Arrowhead they ranked 27th in penalties per game. The offense jumped from 30th in penalties per game in 2024 to ninth in 2025. They were also the No. 1 penalized fourth-quarter team. Opponents drew only 42.5% of their flags in the second half (third-lowest; Chargers and Jets were lower), so 58% of second-half flags in Chiefs games landed on Kansas City, up from 47% in 2022–2024. Sharp also has them first in the league in yards opponents lost to defensive pass interference, 32.8 per infraction, on extremely low volume.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 69 penalties for 563 yards (#24). Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (19), Illegal Formation (4). Most flags in Shotgun (30), Under Center (3), Pistol (2). Most flagged players: Jawaan Taylor (10), Josh Simmons (7), Kingsley Suamataia (5).

Defense: 50 penalties for 388 yards (#21), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Holding (9), Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Offside (7). Most flags on Cover 1 (9), Cover 4 (5), Cover 3 (4). Most flagged players: Chris Jones (7), Nohl Williams (6), Charles Omenihu (5).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Offensive holding was the most common whistle (25), then false start (19), illegal formation (4), delay of game (4), and intentional grounding (2). Special teams added four offensive holding flags on punt returns.

Defensive holding led the Defense types with nine, then defensive pass interference (8), defensive offside (7), and roughing the passer (3).

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Rashee Rice WR15, Kenneth Walker RB7, Patrick Mahomes QB12.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Patrick Mahomes (20.2 FPavg), Rashee Rice (18.5 FPavg), Travis Kelce (11.2 FPavg), Marquise Brown (8.6 FPavg), Kareem Hunt (8.6 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Kansas City’s passing attack faced Cover 3 on 26.0% of charted plays (179) and Cover 1 on 24.8% (171). Kelce led Cover 3 with 47 full-PPR points and Cover 1 with 42. Cover 2 was 20.6% (142 plays) at 1.92 per play, and Kelce led that shell with 46. Cover 0 was only 23 plays (3.3%) but 3.92 points per play, where Kelce had 25. Rice was next on the three high-volume shells, with 43 against Cover 3, 35 against Cover 2, and 30 against Cover 1. Cover 4 (75 plays, 10.9%, 1.63 per play) went to JuJu Smith-Schuster with 17, then Kelce with 16. Brown, now with the Eagles, had 16 against Cover 0 and 7 against 2-Man, matching Noah Gray’s 7 on that 39-play, 0.87-per-play sample. Worthy had 6 against Cover 6 next to Brashard Smith’s 7, and 6 against Cover 9 on 15 plays.

Worthy’s 2026 role grows with Brown gone, but his 2025 scoring still leaned on splash plays more than a high-volume tree. Walker inherits the backfield Hunt and Pacheco left. The coverage table above is last year’s catchers.

Skill adds: Kenneth Walker III (RB) and Justin Fields (QB) (via trade).

Skill losses: Gardner Minshew (QB) to the Cardinals, Marquise Brown (WR) to the Eagles, JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR), Isiah Pacheco (RB) to the Lions, Kareem Hunt (RB), Dameon Pierce (RB) to the Eagles, Robert Tonyan (TE), Shane Buechele (QB) to the Bills, and Keaontay Ingram (RB).

Skill draft picks: Emmett Johnson (RB, Rd 5, Nebraska), Cyrus Allen (WR, Rd 5, Cincinnati), and Garrett Nussmeier (QB, Rd 7, LSU).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Patrick Mahomes’s 14-game Chiefs sample is a 14.1 floor, 31.5 ceiling, three Slate Hits, and 3.35 FP/$. He then played the Denver opener on the other side of the ACL/LCL surgery.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Rashee Rice, in eight Chiefs games, posted a 12.1 floor, 27.3 ceiling, four Slate Hits, and 2.62 FP/$. When he played, the target share (29.7% in the NFL+ sample) and red-zone lead (19 looks) supported both a weekly floor and GPP weeks.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Travis Kelce’s 17-game card is an 8.4 floor, 19.1 ceiling, three Slate Hits, and 2.37 FP/$.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Kenneth Walker III’s last club was Seattle. In 17 Seahawks games he averaged 11.6 DraftKings points with a 6.6 floor, 20.1 ceiling, two Slate Hits, $5,600, and 2.08 FP/$, on 221 rushes at -26.1 Rush EPA. He signed with Kansas City to take the lead-back job Hunt and Pacheco left.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Justin Fields’s last club was the Jets. In nine tracked games he averaged 16.8 points with a 6.0 floor, 28.7 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $5,400, and 3.17 FP/$, at -0.13 EPA per dropback. That is the prior-club sample for the backup Kansas City traded for.

Inside Scoop

Kansas City may have finished 6-11 last season, but very little about the 2026 setup resembles a team preparing for a rebuild. Warren Sharp still projects the Chiefs for 10.5 wins and first place in the AFC West, essentially betting that one ugly season did not erase the foundation Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes spent years building. The defense quietly allowed only 19.3 points per game in 2025, so the larger question was always whether the offense could rediscover enough explosiveness to turn close games back in Kansas City's favor. That is where Kenneth Walker III, a healthier Rashee Rice, and a reshuffled supporting cast become far more important than the six-win record suggests.

The opener offered an encouraging first glimpse of what that rebound could look like. Mahomes returned from his ACL/LCL injury and Kansas City handled Denver 31-10, while Walker immediately gave the offense something it badly lacked last season: explosive production from the backfield. He piled up 191 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns, including a 60-yard scoring run, as the Chiefs leaned on the ground game more heavily than their pass-happy 2025 profile would have suggested. One game does not erase the questions surrounding Mahomes' recovery or a secondary rebuilt around L'Jarius Sneed, Mansoor Delane, Alohi Gilman and Chamarri Conner, but Kansas City has already shown that the path back to contention does not have to depend on Mahomes carrying the offense every Sunday.

That makes the Chiefs one of the more fascinating teams in this preview series. Sharp's preseason betting snapshot installed them as favorites in 11 of 17 games with a -2.9 average line, a considerable vote of confidence for a club coming off six wins. Their 11-6 ATS record in 2025 also hints at how much more competitive they were than the final standings suggest, while a 4-13 record to the over reflected how often games stayed below market totals. From a DFS perspective, the 2025 profiles tell a similarly layered story: Mahomes, Rice and Travis Kelce showed combinations of floor and ceiling that fit GPP/Cash archetypes, while Walker's Seattle sample carried more tournament-shaped volatility. Those are historical profiles rather than weekly 2026 recommendations, but they reinforce the larger point. Kansas City does not need to rediscover the exact offense that dominated the league several years ago. If Mahomes remains healthy, Walker continues providing legitimate backfield explosiveness, and the rebuilt defense holds together, the Chiefs have enough different ways to win to make last year's 6-11 season look much more like an interruption than a new normal.

---

Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.