NFL 2026 PREVIEW: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

New England is 2-2 after a 14-3 Super Bowl season, and the first month already looks like Warren Sharp's preseason 9.5-win, second-place AFC East forecast instead of a 14-win rerun. The Patriots scored 36 points through three games, got flattened 35-6 at Jacksonville, then Drake Maye and Josh McDaniels produced their best 2026 offensive night in a 29-26 road upset at Buffalo. Last year they scored 28.8 points per game (second) and allowed 18.8 (fourth), covering 13-4 and going 11-6 to the over. Sharp's preseason market snapshot had a -2.4 average line, -5.4 at home and 0.3 on the road, with New England favored in 10 games and an underdog in seven.

The roster gap Sharp flagged has already shown up. His preseason ranks put the secondary fifth and the receiving corps 16th, the lowest unit grade on the club. A.J. Brown arrived via trade as the full-time WR1 after Stefon Diggs was released, then hurt his ankle in Week 1 and went on injured reserve September 12, so he misses Weeks 2 through 5 and is first eligible for the Jets in Week 6. He has three catches for 26 yards. That is Sharp's health-regression Under case showing up in September, not a preseason theory.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Romeo Doubs (WR), Alijah Vera-Tucker (RG), Dre'Mont Jones (OLB), Kevin Byard (S), Julian Hill (TE) (IR), and Reggie Gilliam (FB); A.J. Brown (WR) (via trade) (IR).

Key Departures: Stefon Diggs (WR), Kayshon Boutte (WR) to the Texans, Khyiris Tonga (IDL) to the Chiefs, Jahlani Tavai (LB), K'Lavon Chaisson (LB), Jaylinn Hawkins (S) to the Ravens, Garrett Bradbury (C) (traded to the Bears), Vederian Lowe (LT) to the 49ers, Joshua Dobbs (QB), Antonio Gibson (RB), Jack Gibbens (LB) to the Cardinals, Austin Hooper (TE) to the Falcons, Marte Mapu (LB) to the Texans, Alex Austin (CB) to the Dolphins, D'Ernest Johnson (RB), Thayer Munford (RT), Yasir Durant (LT), Jaquelin Roy (IDL), Deneric Prince (RB), Isaiah Iton (IDL), Darius Harris (LB), Craig Reynolds (RB), and Thomas Odukoya (TE).

Mike Vrabel enters his second season ranked eighth at the position by Warren Sharp, with Josh McDaniels back calling the offense and Zak Kuhr taking over as defensive coordinator. The biggest skill-position change was a trade. New England released Stefon Diggs and brought in A.J. Brown as the full-time WR1, then signed Romeo Doubs in free agency as the complement. Kayshon Boutte was traded to Houston on August 25 for safety Jaylen Reed and a 2028 seventh-round pick. Julian Hill went on injured reserve June 1, so the tight-end room is Hunter Henry, Eli Raridon, Tanner Arkin, and Cameron Latu. Fullback Reggie Gilliam is the blocking add after Austin Hooper left for the Falcons. Alijah Vera-Tucker is the interior-line add after New England traded Garrett Bradbury to Chicago for a 2027 fifth-round pick. Mike Onwenu went on injured reserve September 22, and the current line is Will Campbell, Vera-Tucker, Jared Wilson, Ben Brown, and Morgan Moses, with Ben Brown making his first career right-guard start at Buffalo. Joshua Dobbs is gone; Tommy DeVito is the backup behind Drake Maye.

The defensive to-do list is more specific than a roster dump. K'Lavon Chaisson left in free agency after leading the club in pressure rate, and Jaylinn Hawkins signed with the Ravens. Dre'Mont Jones signed as a linebacker and is listed as the starting outside linebacker; Kevin Byard is the safety add opposite Craig Woodson. Harold Landry opened the year on the physically unable to perform list and has not played. The secondary is the unit Sharp ranked fifth entering the season; the front seven, ranked 11th, still has to replace Chaisson's disruption without turning every early down into a coverage problem.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Warren Sharp did not treat this class as a short-term Super Bowl patch. Instead, it reads as a future-focused roster investment with just one immediate-need fill.

Caleb Lomu (first round, Utah) sits behind Will Campbell and Morgan Moses at tackle in Sharp's preseason read, but Moses is in the last year of his contract. Sharp's longer-term view is that Lomu either inherits that job in 2027 or becomes the emergency if Campbell's pressure-rate spike in the playoffs (12.3% after a 5.8% regular-season mark) forces a move inside. Through four games Lomu has already been used as a tackle-eligible extra lineman.

Gabe Jacas (second round, Illinois) is the one Sharp flagged as filling an immediate hole. He should rotate at edge even if he doesn't start, though Sharp notes his 13.3% collegiate pressure rate ranked only 17th among Big Ten rushers. He's already posted 1.5 sacks and an interception through four games, with the current edge group running Dre'Mont Jones, Elijah Ponder, and Jacas while Landry has not played.

Eli Raridon (third round, Notre Dame) was framed as Hunter Henry's backup with a 2027 timeline, when Henry hits free agency, and as a more polished blocker than pass-catcher. Julian Hill is on injured reserve, so Raridon is already the tight end behind Henry, with three catches for 44 yards and a touchdown.

The rest of the board is depth. Karon Prunty (fifth round, Wake Forest) is a corner in a secondary Sharp ranked fifth entering the season, and he did not practice Wednesday. Dametrious Crownover (sixth round, Texas A&M) is a developmental tackle. Namdi Obiazor (sixth, TCU) adds linebacker depth. Behren Morton (seventh, Texas Tech) is the third-string quarterback. Jam Miller (seventh, Alabama) posted the worst yards-over-expected rate among power-conference backs last season and did not make the 53-man roster. Quintayvious Hutchins (seventh, Boston College) is on injured reserve after projecting as a passing-down and special-teams piece off a 16% edge pressure rate in 2025. Sharp's preseason verdict was useful depth, underwhelming immediate impact; Jacas and Raridon are the two who have already shown up.

Sharp Forecasts New England Patriots with 9.5 Wins

Over Case: Sharp's preseason over case rests on Drake Maye's year-two leap. In 2025, Maye led qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per play and completion percentage (72.0%), posted a league-best 8.9 yards per attempt, and lost only 0.09 EPA per dropback when pressured, second best behind Patrick Mahomes. The defense's core was intact in that snapshot: 5.2 yards allowed per play and 18.0 points per game in Sharp's accounting. The bet was that Vera-Tucker, Caleb Lomu, and fullback Reggie Gilliam could keep last year's 24th-ranked pressure rate allowed from following Maye into January. Julian Hill was part of that blocking package in Sharp's preseason case; he has been on injured reserve since June 1.

Under Case: The under is about regression. New England faced the softest strength of schedule in the league last year — opponents posted a .410 combined winning percentage — and the Patriots went 12-1 against teams that missed the playoffs but only 2-2 against playoff teams. They also finished first in total player health, which is rarely repeatable. Even the explosive-play generation was elevated: first in both 20-plus yards (8.1%) and 10-plus yards (22.5%), rates Sharp treats as unsustainably high even with A.J. Brown added. Protection is another lever. Maye ranked 30th in sacks taken last year, and the pocket deteriorated in the playoffs when opponents dialed up better fronts. Will Campbell's 5.8% regular-season pressure rate allowed spiked to 12.3% in the postseason. On defense, red-zone efficiency ranked 30th, goal-to-go 32nd, and the front seven is missing Chaisson's 14.5% pressure rate.

That health lever is no longer theoretical. Brown is on injured reserve after a Week 1 ankle injury. Onwenu went on injured reserve September 22. Landry opened on the physically unable to perform list and has not played. Gonzalez and Barmore both missed Buffalo. Wednesday's first Raiders practice had Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, Mack Hollins, and Karon Prunty as non-participants, with Barmore, Dre'Mont Jones, Moses, Stevenson, and Woodson limited. The Buffalo win showed why the Over case still has support on film; the injury report is the Under case arriving on schedule.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club +8 days.

Warren Sharp slots New England eighth in net rest edge, crediting the Patriots with a plus-eight-day differential across the season against their opponents. That favorable aggregate margin anchors a rest profile that sits higher than its individual situational components suggest. In the league-wide timing metrics, New England ranks sixth in short-week road games, 15th in negated byes, and 19th in both overall rest rank and games coming off road Sunday or Monday Night Football appearances. Preparation rank is the lowest mark on the board, grading 24th. Across the full campaign, the Patriots play eight total games featuring a non-zero rest differential, giving them distinct stretches where calendar spacing tilts either for or against them.

The opening month is no longer a rest forecast. New England lost 13-10 at Seattle on even rest after a late collapse, beat Pittsburgh 20-3 at home with the plus-four edge, lost 35-6 at Jacksonville on even rest, then won 29-26 at Buffalo on even rest. Next up are the Raiders, the Jets — Brown's first eligible return date — and a Thursday night trip to Chicago. After that the rest calendar still has plus-three at Miami in Week 8, minus-three at home against Green Bay in Week 9, a plus-seven rest edge at the Chargers on Sunday night in Week 12, three days given back to Buffalo at home in Week 13, Minnesota on Thursday night in Week 14, plus-three at Kansas City on Monday night, minus-one at the Jets, and minus-two at home against Denver.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Drake Maye (8 INT, 3 FL), Rhamondre Stevenson (3 FL), Antonio Gibson (1 FL), TreVeyon Henderson (1 FL). Takeaways: Jaylinn Hawkins (4 INT, 1 FR), Marcus Jones (3 INT, 1 FR), Robert Spillane (2 INT), Craig Woodson (2 FR), Elijah Ponder (2 FR), Marte Mapu (1 INT)

Ball security was a strength during the 14-3 season: 16 giveaways, ninth-fewest, and a plus-three turnover margin. Drake Maye threw all eight interceptions, tied for fourth-fewest, and lost three fumbles. The running backs were sloppier. Eight fumbles lost ranked 18th, with Rhamondre Stevenson accounting for three and Antonio Gibson and TreVeyon Henderson one each. Gibson is gone.

That interception rate has not held. Through four games New England is already minus-five in turnover differential, and Maye has thrown seven interceptions — only one fewer than his entire 2025 regular season. The Buffalo win did not erase the first-month giveaway problem; it just showed the offense can still score while carrying it.

The takeaway side was merely average. Nineteen takeaways ranked 19th, with 10 interceptions (18th) and nine fumble recoveries (tied for ninth). Jaylinn Hawkins led that group with four interceptions and a fumble recovery in the 2025 sample. Marcus Jones (three interceptions, one recovery) and Robert Spillane (two interceptions) are the returning names, with Craig Woodson and Elijah Ponder each recovering two fumbles. Kevin Byard is the 2026 safety add opposite Woodson. Extra possessions remain a complement to the Maye-and-defense floor.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Drake Maye 201 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 33/559 ≈ 5.9% of shotgun plays; 14/453 ≈ 3.1% of under center plays. Coverage-shell splits are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Harold Landry III (8.5), K'Lavon Chaisson (7.5), Elijah Ponder (4), Milton Williams (3.5)

New England took 48 sacks in 2025, 23rd in the league, and Drake Maye lost 201 yards to them. Shotgun accounted for 33 of those sacks across 559 plays; under center took 14 across 453. Those shares divide sacks by all plays from the look, including runs. The under-center rank of 32nd is a count rank on 14 sacks. Warren Sharp ranks the 2026 offensive line 15th, which is the protection question Maye's year-two efficiency still has to answer.

The defense finished with 35 sacks, 22nd. Harold Landry III led with 8.5, then K'Lavon Chaisson 7.5, Elijah Ponder 4.0, and Milton Williams 3.5. Sacks landed in Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (11), and Cover 3 (10) as raw counts. Four-man rushes produced 21 sacks (24th as a count), five-man rushes 8, and six-man rushes 6 (tied for fifth as a count). Chaisson left in free agency. Landry opened on the physically unable to perform list and has not played, so the edge group is Dre'Mont Jones, Elijah Ponder, and rookie Gabe Jacas. Ponder has 2.5 sacks and Jacas 1.5, and the three generated eight pressures against Buffalo.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 3 (#1) — Antonio Gibson (kickoff return) and Marcus Jones (2 punt returns).

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 1 (#19) — Malik Washington (punt return).

Kickoff returner Efton Chism III: 16 returns for 383 yards.

Punt returner Marcus Jones: 21 returns for 363 yards.

Punt returns 21 for 363 yards; kickoff returns 57 for 1451 yards.

Special teams scored three times. Marcus Jones returned two punts for touchdowns and handled all 21 punt returns for 363 yards. Antonio Gibson supplied the third score on a kickoff return before leaving. Efton Chism III led the listed kickoff-return workload at 16 for 383 yards inside a team total of 57 kickoff returns for 1,451 yards. Jones remains the punt returner.

Penalties

Offense: 59 penalties for 448 yards (#14). Most common: False Start (20), Offensive Holding (18), Offensive Pass Interference (6). Most flags in Shotgun (14), Under Center (10). Most flagged players: Morgan Moses (6), Will Campbell (5), Stefon Diggs (4).

Defense: 40 penalties for 406 yards (#6), including 3 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Defensive Holding (6), Unnecessary Roughness (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (14), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (3). Most flagged players: Carlton Davis III (9), K'Lavon Chaisson (4), Harold Landry III (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Discipline was a strength: 99 penalties for 854 yards ranked sixth-fewest in the league. Defensive penalties, including special-teams holdings, were 40 for 406 yards, also sixth-fewest. Those defensive flags clustered in Cover 1 (14), then Cover 3 (5) and Cover 2 (3). Carlton Davis III led the club with nine accepted flags; K'Lavon Chaisson had four and Harold Landry III three.

The offense sat closer to the middle, 59 penalties for 448 yards (14th-fewest). The formation counts are shotgun 14 and under center 10. Morgan Moses led with six flags, Will Campbell had five, and Stefon Diggs four. False starts and offensive holding are the volume, which Penalty Analysis picks up on Sharp's third-down split. The challenge is preserving that defensive discipline after personnel turnover.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 794 plays, 47.9% success, 0.13 EPA/play (#2). Most efficient on early downs: Kayshon Boutte (32 plays, 0.99 EPA/play), Stefon Diggs (63 plays, 0.67 EPA/play), Austin Hooper (24 plays, 0.63 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 174 plays, 44.8% success, 0.04 EPA/play (#12). Most efficient in the red zone: Stefon Diggs (12 plays, 0.66 EPA/play), Drake Maye (18 plays, 0.64 EPA/play), DeMario Douglas (8 plays, 0.62 EPA/play).

New England ranked second in early-down EPA last season (794 plays, 47.9% success, 0.13 EPA per play) and 12th in the red zone (174 plays, 44.8% success, 0.04 EPA per play). Among the displayed early-down players, Kayshon Boutte was the most efficient at 0.99 EPA per play over 32 plays, Stefon Diggs posted 0.67 over 63 plays, and Austin Hooper 0.63 over 24.

Inside the 20, Diggs, Drake Maye, and DeMario Douglas topped the displayed red-zone sample at 0.66, 0.64, and 0.62 EPA per play. Diggs, Boutte, and Hooper are all gone — Diggs released, Boutte traded to Houston, Hooper to Atlanta. Brown is on injured reserve through Week 5. The 2026 early-down and red-zone work is Maye, Douglas, Doubs, Mack Hollins, and Hunter Henry.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 2.3 (#8); they passed 56.7% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Drake Maye (54.4% success on 540 pass plays).

On rushes: TreVeyon Henderson (41.7% success on 180 rush plays), Rhamondre Stevenson (37.4% success on 131 rush plays), Drake Maye (57.8% success on 83 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

New England ran more often than most teams last season and still passed more efficiently than it ran. The offense had 551 pass plays (54.2% pass rate, 25th) and 466 rush plays (45.8% rush rate, eighth). Neutral-down pass rate over expected was still positive at 2.3, ranked eighth, and they threw on 56.7% of those snaps. Passing efficiency was first in yards per pass play (7.73) and first in success rate (53.9%). Rushing sat at 4.78 yards per rush play (eighth) and a 42.1% success rate (22nd).

Drake Maye directed that aerial output at a 54.4% success rate across 540 pass plays. He was also the most efficient runner among the backs, 57.8% success on 83 rush plays. TreVeyon Henderson carried the heaviest backfield workload at 41.7% success on 180 rush plays. Rhamondre Stevenson's play-by-play mark is 37.4% on 131 rush plays. Through four 2026 games that pass-play efficiency has not shown up in the scoring rate; Buffalo was the first night it looked close.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

New England led the league in 20-plus-yard plays last season, 85 for 2,549 yards, and most of that came through Maye's passing game: 69 explosive passes for 1,987 yards against 16 explosive runs for 562. Stefon Diggs supplied the largest receiving chunk-play total, 17 for 449 yards, and he is gone. Hunter Henry (11), Kayshon Boutte (10, now in Houston), Mack Hollins (8), and DeMario Douglas (7) filled out the next receiving layer. Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson supplied the rushing explosives, seven and six. Cover 3 led generated explosives at 25 for 667 yards; Cover 1 was next at 23 for 759, fewer plays and more yards. Those are raw counts, not per-snap efficiency.

The defense ranked eighth in fewest 20-plus gains allowed, 51 for 1,339 yards, and most of the leaks were through the air (42 completions, nine rushes). Cover 3 allowed the largest raw total (15 for 427), then Cover 1 (11 for 279). Emeka Egbuka and Dalton Kincaid each had four chunk receptions in the allowed sample. The 2026 so-what is the missing Diggs volume on offense and whether a secondary Sharp ranked fifth can keep that top-eight allowed mark while Gonzalez and Carlton Davis miss practice time.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Eleven personnel was the 2025 offense: 665 plays at 1.68 fantasy points per play, with Rhamondre Stevenson, Hunter Henry, Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, and Kayshon Boutte as the listed names. Twelve personnel (279 plays, 1.53 FP/play) was the two-tight-end look with TreVeyon Henderson, Henry, Austin Hooper, Hollins, and Boutte. Twenty-one personnel was a minor 56-play package at 1.09. Diggs, Hooper, and Boutte are gone from those packages, Brown is on injured reserve through Week 5, and Julian Hill has been on injured reserve since June 1. With Brown out, the current receiver group is led by Hollins, Doubs, and Douglas, while Henry and Raridon are the top two healthy tight ends.

Shotgun outproduced under center, 1.84 fantasy points per play on 559 plays against 1.29 on 453, and RPOs were a 15-play change of pace. Those FP/play figures mix runs and passes. They describe where the 2025 production sat.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #21; play-action rank #12 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Motion was ordinary usage with a small full-PPR bump: 539 plays, a 53.0% rate that ranked 21st, 47.5% success, 1.65 fantasy points per play with motion and 1.52 without. Play action was the lever. The 148 play-action plays were only 14.6% of the sample, ranked 12th, but they succeeded 54.7% of the time at 2.39 fantasy points per play against 1.45 without the fake.

Through three games, New England ranked last in motion rate at 54% and 29th in play-action usage at 20.7%, even though both raw rates were above its 2025 season percentages. Against Buffalo, those rates jumped to 75.3% and 35.7%, and the offense had its best game of the year. That is a Week 4 schematic change that coincided with better offense. It is not proof that motion and play action caused the win.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Drake Maye's second NFL season was historically efficient. He led the league in passer rating (113.5), QBR (77.2), and EPA per play (+0.27), posted 8.9 yards per attempt (best in the NFL), and ranked second in success rate at 51.6%. The standout layer was downfield production: 72% completions overall, 60.7% on 10-plus-yard throws at 13.4 yards per attempt (the league average was 48.5%), and a league-high five touchdown passes from 30-plus yards. When the Playoffs arrived, the quality dipped notably. Completions fell to 58.3%, yards per attempt to 6.9, and New England's protection deteriorated as teams brought pressure schemes they'd been saving.

Warren Sharp's preseason ranks put the quarterback room sixth and the offensive line 15th. The hole he isolated is Cover 6. Against man coverage, Maye averaged +0.21 EPA per attempt. Against zone looks (non-Cover 6), he was +0.23. Against Cover 6, he dropped to −0.15 EPA per attempt with a 38% success rate and 2.1 net yards per attempt over 63 regular-season dropbacks — last among 36 qualifying quarterbacks. Sean McDermott's Bills jumped from 11.8% Cover 6 in Week 5 of 2025 to 50% by Week 15. Joshua Dobbs is gone; Tommy DeVito is the backup.

The first month of 2026 is a different story from that 2025 Cover 6 split. Through four games Maye is 73-of-117 (62.4%) for 854 yards, four touchdowns, seven interceptions, 7.3 yards per attempt, and a 71.0 rating, plus 136 rushing yards. Three of those games were ugly and produced one passing touchdown. Then he threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns, led a game-winning drive at Buffalo, and was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. That 2025 Cover 6 weakness remains an important scouting question, but the first four 2026 games do not yet tell us whether that shell is driving Maye's regression. Whether Buffalo signals a return to 2025 form or stands as an outlier remains unclear.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Stefon Diggs led the 2025 targets with 102, 63 early-down looks, and +65.3 receiving EPA. New England released him and traded for A.J. Brown as the full-time WR1, then signed Romeo Doubs in free agency. Warren Sharp is explicit about that order. Doubs was a useful Green Bay starter who has not yet hit 100 targets in an NFL season. Sharp's preseason rank for the 2026 receiving corps is 16th, the lowest unit grade on this roster, because last year's group produced against lesser defenses and then saw catchable-pass rates at 10-plus air yards fall from 85% in the regular season to 63% in the playoffs. Brown was the bet that those postseason numbers move.

Hunter Henry is the holdover the offense already trusts. He took 87 targets, 60 on early downs, and a team-high 22 red-zone targets (33.3% share). Mack Hollins is next in 2025 volume at 65 targets and 13.0 air yards per target. Kayshon Boutte and DeMario Douglas each had 46 targets; Boutte was the vertical at 17.1 air yards per target and +33.9 receiving EPA before the August 25 trade to Houston. Douglas's 20.7% NFL+ target share is his qualifying-sample rate on 46 targets. Kyle Williams had 21 targets, Efton Chism III three. Julian Hill, whose prior club was Miami, has been on injured reserve since June 1. Third-rounder Eli Raridon is the tight end behind Henry after Austin Hooper (26 targets) left for the Falcons.

The first-month 2026 receiving production is almost the opposite of that preseason tree because Brown is out: Hollins 15-209, Doubs 12-203-2, Henry 12-133, Stevenson 12-90, Douglas 9-82, and Brown 3-26 in one game. Doubs scored twice at Buffalo, and Chism caught the game-winning touchdown. Hollins is now dealing with a calf injury and did not practice Wednesday.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the entire year with New England. Traded players who changed teams midseason are left blank here since the season total may blend production from both clubs; use the red-zone and early-down tables to assess this club's target hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

New England's backfield was a two-part story with a late-season twist. TreVeyon Henderson led the carries with 180, posting +2.8 rush EPA and a 43.3% NFL+ success rate. Rhamondre Stevenson had 130 attempts in 14 games with +1.4 yards over expected per attempt, though his EPA was negative (−24.1). In the red zone, they split finishing duties almost evenly: Henderson 36 rushes and six scores on 40 opportunities, Stevenson 27 rushes with six targets and six scores on 33 opportunities.

The late-season split is the more interesting 2025 performance, not proof it persists. Over the final nine regular-season games, Patriots running backs averaged a 41% success rate (ninth-best), a league-best 5.5 yards per rush, and 10-plus-yard runs on 11.8% of attempts. Before that they were 36.3% success, 3.8 yards per carry, and 8.8% explosive. Stevenson averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry in each of his final four regular-season games and then took over the playoff backfield. Henderson still finished with 1,132 total yards and 10 touchdowns with only 35 playoff touches. Warren Sharp ranked the 2026 running backs 11th entering the season. Gibson is gone; Reggie Gilliam is the fullback add.

The first month has not carried that late-2025 efficiency forward. Stevenson is at 163 yards on 44 carries (3.7 yards per carry) and Henderson 141 on 38 (3.7), while Maye has 136 rushing yards himself. Rushing success rate sat at 28.4% over the first three games, then jumped to 44.8% against Buffalo, with the club crediting motion and blocking changes. That Week 4 schematic shift coincided with the first real ground night of the season. It is a better bridge between last year's second-half tape and 2026 than treating the surge as settled, and it is not proof that those changes caused the win.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): TreVeyon Henderson 10 (9 rush, 1 rec); Rhamondre Stevenson 9 (7 rush, 2 rec); Hunter Henry 7 rec; Kayshon Boutte 6 rec; Drake Maye 4 rush; Stefon Diggs 4 rec. Passing TDs: Drake Maye 31. Defense TDs: Marcus Jones (1 def TD). Special teams: Andy Borregales 27/32 FG, 53/55 XP; Antonio Gibson 1; Marcus Jones 2.

Drake Maye threw 31 touchdown passes and ran for four more. TreVeyon Henderson scored 10 times (nine rush, one receiving) and Rhamondre Stevenson nine (seven rush, two receiving). Hunter Henry led the pass-catchers with seven receiving touchdowns, Kayshon Boutte had six, and Stefon Diggs four. The scoring was distributed rather than concentrated in one finisher, even though New England ranked only 12th in red-zone EPA.

Marcus Jones scored on defense and twice on punt returns. Andy Borregales went 27-of-32 on field goals and 53-of-55 on extra points. Antonio Gibson's kick-return touchdown stays in the 2025 special-teams line.

The 2026 scoring rate has not followed that identity. New England has scored 65 points through four games — 16.3 per game, down from 28.8 — with seven team touchdowns. Thirty-six of those points came in the first three games. Buffalo supplied the rest. Whether that Buffalo breakout is a correction after three weeks of offensive collapse is the 2026 scoring story, not whether Brown is already sitting in the Diggs chair.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Patriots' scoring identity was decidedly first-half. New England led the league at 7.2 points per game in the first quarter and ranked second at 10.2 in the second. The second quarter alone led the league at 32.9 full-PPR fantasy points per game. The third quarter remained productive (6.1 points, seventh; 22.7 fantasy points, third). The fourth quarter cratered: 5.3 points (27th) and 17.4 fantasy points (30th). That timing matches Sharp's offensive efficiency ranks — first in first-half drive score rate and points per drive, second in red-zone trips. It doesn't prove anything about game management; it simply shows where the 2025 offense actually scored.

The defense played best in the middle quarters. After allowing 4.4 points in the first quarter (17th-fewest), it surrendered just 5.1 in the second and 3.4 in the third, both sixth-fewest in the league. Second-quarter fantasy points allowed ranked second-fewest at 16.3. The one area where opponents had traction was the fourth quarter: 6.0 points (12th-fewest) and 24.4 fantasy points (18th-fewest). The 2026 offense has not recreated last year's first-half scoring dominance through four games. You do not need a fresh quarter split to see that: the overall scoring rate has fallen from 28.8 to 16.3 points per game.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #11, Secondary #5.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Robert Spillane led the club with 97 tackles; Harold Landry III 8.5 sacks, K'Lavon Chaisson 7.5 sacks, Elijah Ponder 4.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Robert Spillane: 4 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 2 INT, 5 PD; Christian Elliss: 3 PD; Jack Gibbens: 8 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 4 PD; Craig Woodson: 4 TFL, 3 PD; Jaylinn Hawkins: 3 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 4 INT, 6 PD; Carlton Davis III: 3 TFL, 10 PD; Harold Landry III: 10 TFL, 8.5 sacks; K'Lavon Chaisson: 10 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 2 PD; Elijah Ponder: 4 TFL, 4.0 sacks.

Warren Sharp ranked the secondary fifth entering the season, and the 2025 stats support it. Marcus Jones was the leader, combining 11 passes defended from the slot with 65 tackles, eight tackles for loss, two sacks, and three interceptions. Carlton Davis III and Christian Gonzalez both posted 69 tackles and 10 passes defended. Craig Woodson had 79. Jaylinn Hawkins's 71 tackles, four interceptions, and 1.5 sacks are the 2025 safety sample; he signed with Baltimore. Kevin Byard is the 2026 signing opposite Woodson. The hinge player is Gonzalez: opponents averaged 6.3 yards per attempt with him on the field and 7.9 without him.

That fifth-ranked secondary is already dealing with the health layer Sharp's Under case warned about. Gonzalez missed Buffalo with a shoulder injury. Barmore missed Buffalo as well. Wednesday's first Raiders practice had Gonzalez, Carlton Davis, and Karon Prunty as non-participants, with Barmore limited.

The front seven is ranked 11th, and the 2026 hole is Chaisson plus Landry's availability, not both of them leaving. Harold Landry III led with 8.5 sacks, 10 tackles for loss, and 19 quarterback hits. K'Lavon Chaisson added 7.5 sacks and 10 tackles for loss, then left in free agency. Landry is still a Patriot; he opened the year on the physically unable to perform list and has not played, so that 8.5-sack production has been unavailable too. Jack Gibbens (81 tackles, eight tackles for loss) signed with the Cardinals and Jahlani Tavai (42 tackles, four tackles for loss) also left. Dre'Mont Jones is the outside-linebacker add, listed as the starter, next to an interior that still has Cory Durden. Gabe Jacas is the second-round edge rotation. Maintaining anything close to Sharp's fifth-place preseason secondary ranking becomes harder if the rebuilt front cannot generate pressure — especially while Gonzalez and Davis are dealing with injuries.

The 2025 Patriots run defense was exceptionally stingy, 3.9 yards per carry allowed to opposing running backs (sixth) and the fourth-lowest explosive-run rate. Christian Barmore posted a 12.4% pressure rate across 17 games, Milton Williams 13.2% with nine run stuffs in 12 contests. Cory Durden also recorded nine run stuffs; Tonga has since departed for Kansas City. Robert Spillane led the defense with 10 run stuffs and a tackle on 21.6% of his run snaps. Jack Gibbens signed with the Cardinals, leaving Christian Elliss next to Spillane.

The pass-rush tell in 2025 was pressure without finishes: 12th in pressure rate at 38.4% and 22nd with 35 sacks. Chaisson left in free agency. Landry opened on the physically unable to perform list and has not played. The current edge group is Dre'Mont Jones, Elijah Ponder, and Gabe Jacas. Gonzalez remains the coverage hinge on 2025 tape — 57.0 passer rating allowed, opponents at 6.7 yards per pass attempt (10th) and 11th in EPA allowed per dropback as a team — and he missed Buffalo with a shoulder injury. Carlton Davis and Karon Prunty also did not practice Wednesday. K.J. Britt was released August 31; he is not the linebacker add. The matchup questions are whether opponents can sustain the run against an interior that is not fully healthy and whether they can stress the injured corner room without letting Milton Williams and the rebuilt edge group dictate passing downs. That is not a free pass to ignore Sharp's fifth-ranked preseason secondary. It is the difference between last year's allowed rates and this week's availability.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Cover 1 allowed only 1.50 fantasy points per play on 152 snaps, sixth-best. Cover 2 sat next at 1.58 on 155 snaps, ranked 10th. Cover 3 was less stingy at 1.69 on 177 snaps, ranked 14th, and Cover 4 was the leakiest at 1.93 on 55 snaps, ranked 15th. Usage determines how much any one shell affects a particular game, but these are historical rates rather than matchup prescriptions.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Andy Borregales: 27/32 FG, 53/55 PAT.

Bryce Baringer led with 51 punts (21 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Efton Chism III: 16 returns for 383 yards.

Punt returner Marcus Jones: 21 returns for 363 yards.

Special teams tackler Christian Elliss: 18 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Andy Borregales went 27-of-32 on field goals (84.4 percent), including four from 50-plus and a 59-yard long, and 53-of-55 on extra points. Bryce Baringer punted 51 times, 21 inside the 20, with no blocks. Marcus Jones handled all punt returns: 21 for 363 yards and both punt-return touchdowns. Efton Chism III's 16 kickoff returns for 383 yards sit inside the 57-return, 1,451-yard team total. Christian Elliss led coverage with 18 combined tackles. Gibson's kick-return score leaves with his departure.

The 2026 jobs have already moved. Baringer is on injured reserve, and Mitch Wishnowsky is the punter: 14 punts through four games, 48.3 gross, six inside the 20. Jones remains the punt returner. Kyle Williams is the kickoff returner, 11 returns for 273 yards. Borregales remains the kicker and is 5-of-7 on field goals through four games, with all six extra points converted.

Penalty Analysis

The Sharp Football Preview penalty analysis gives New England an A+ for Penalties & Discipline after one of the most dramatic single-season turnarounds in that evaluation. On Sharp's frequency scale, where a higher ranking means fewer flags, the Patriots ranked 29th in penalties per game and 30th in pre-snap penalties per game. Offense and defense both landed among the five least-penalized units per contest. They were second-fewest in first-quarter penalties, 31st in home penalties per game after a top-10 home-flag season in 2024 (down 2.46 flags per home date), and 32nd in declined penalties per game, the fewest in the league.

The remaining leak is third down. New England was the most-penalized team on third down in 2024 and improved, but the offense still ranked among the five most-penalized units on third down in 2025. They overcame those stalled series in a 14-3 year. Sharp's historical warning is that those numbers do not keep getting overcome. Keeping the A+ frequency in 2026 means stopping those free third-down yards, not reprinting last year's overall cleanliness.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 59 penalties for 448 yards (#14). Most common: False Start (20), Offensive Holding (18), Offensive Pass Interference (6). Most flags in Shotgun (14), Under Center (10). Most flagged players: Morgan Moses (6), Will Campbell (5), Stefon Diggs (4).

Defense: 40 penalties for 406 yards (#6), including 3 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Defensive Holding (6), Unnecessary Roughness (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (14), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (3). Most flagged players: Carlton Davis III (9), K'Lavon Chaisson (4), Harold Landry III (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

The flags are specific. The offense drew 20 false starts, 18 holding calls, six offensive pass interference penalties, four delays of game, and three face masks, plus three special-teams holdings on punt returns. The defense's volume was coverage: nine defensive pass interference flags and six defensive holdings, with four unnecessary roughness calls and three offsides behind those.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: TreVeyon Henderson RB24, Drake Maye QB2.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Drake Maye (20.6 FPavg), Rhamondre Stevenson (12.5 FPavg), Stefon Diggs (12.4 FPavg), TreVeyon Henderson (12.1 FPavg), Hunter Henry (10.5 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Hunter Henry was the 2025 target against man and pressure. Cover 1 (147 plays, 2.72 fantasy points per play, Henry 57) and Cover 0 (27 plays, 2.87, Henry 16) were the offense's best per-play shells. Cover 6 was the hole: 1.18 on 28 plays, with Maye leading the scoring only because nobody else did either.

Stefon Diggs owned the zone volume that is gone — Cover 3 (169 plays, Diggs 59) and Cover 2 (161, Diggs 56). Kayshon Boutte's 28 points against Cover 4 is 2025 data; he was traded to Houston. A.J. Brown arrived via trade as the WR1 and is on injured reserve through Week 5. Romeo Doubs is the free-agent complement, and Henderson and Stevenson still own the backfield touches. Coordinators already have the Cover 6 data. The perimeter until Brown returns is Hollins, Doubs, and Douglas.

Skill adds: Romeo Doubs (WR), Julian Hill (TE) (IR), and Reggie Gilliam (FB); A.J. Brown (WR) (via trade) (IR).

Skill losses: Stefon Diggs (WR), Kayshon Boutte (WR) to the Texans, Joshua Dobbs (QB), Antonio Gibson (RB), Austin Hooper (TE) to the Falcons, D'Ernest Johnson (RB), Deneric Prince (RB), Craig Reynolds (RB), and Thomas Odukoya (TE).

Skill draft picks: Eli Raridon (TE, Rd 3, Notre Dame), Behren Morton (QB, Rd 7, Texas Tech), and Jam Miller (RB, Rd 7, Alabama).

Who to target

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Drake Maye's year-two DraftKings card is a 19.1 floor, 27.4 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $6,400, and 3.48 FP/$ across 17 salary weeks, with a 21.8-point average. The rushing layer comes from 83 play-by-play rush plays in the 2025 season.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: A.J. Brown's prior club was Philadelphia. In 15 DraftKings weeks he averaged 15.7 points with a 9.3 floor, 31.1 ceiling, five Slate Hits, $6,300, and 2.48 FP/$, on 121 targets, +24.8 receiving EPA, and 11.6 air yards per target. Warren Sharp also notes 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns on 78 receptions, and a WR5 stretch (18.6 fantasy points per game) from Week 11 through Week 17.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Romeo Doubs's prior club was Green Bay. His card is 10.3 DraftKings points, a 5.6 floor, 19.4 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $4,900, and 2.15 FP/$ in 16 games, with 85 targets and 12.8 air yards per target. He has not hit 100 targets in a season, which is why the profile is tournament-shaped. Through four 2026 games he has 12 catches for 203 yards and two scores.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Mack Hollins's 14-game card is an 8.3-point average, 5.0 floor, 15.9 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, $3,300, and 2.37 FP/$. Cheap salary and a modest floor with virtually no slate-winning historical ceiling. He leads New England with 15 catches for 209 yards through four games and did not practice Wednesday with a calf injury.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: DeMario Douglas's 16-game card is a 6.2-point average, 2.7 floor, 16.1 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $3,800, and 1.64 FP/$. Tournament-shaped. He has nine catches for 82 yards through four games.

Julian Hill's prior club was Miami: 11 DraftKings weeks, a 2.8-point average, 1.4 floor, 6.1 ceiling, zero Slate Hits at $2,500. He has been on injured reserve since June 1.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: TreVeyon Henderson's 17-game card is a 12.6-point average, 6.0 floor, 31.0 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $5,500, and 2.22 FP/$ on 180 carries. He scored six red-zone touchdowns. That floor at that salary is a tournament card, not cash. Through four games he is at 3.7 yards per carry on 38 attempts.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Rhamondre Stevenson's 14-game card is a 13.3-point average, 5.1 floor, 27.2 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $5,200, and 2.53 FP/$ on 130 carries. He also scored six red-zone touchdowns. Same tournament shape: a thin floor with a 27-point ceiling. Through four games he is at 3.7 yards per carry on 44 attempts.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Hunter Henry's 17-game card is a 6.6 floor, 15.5 ceiling, two Slate Hits, $4,000, and 2.71 FP/$, with 87 targets and 22 red-zone looks. His Cover 1 and Cover 0 scoring is that same 2025 role. He has 12 catches for 133 yards through four games.

Inside Scoop

New England went 14-3, and Warren Sharp's preseason forecast was 9.5 wins and second in the AFC East. That tempered number believed in Drake Maye's year-two leap and in a defense that allowed 18.8 points per game. It was also a bet that last year's easiest opponent list, first-in-the-league health, and league-leading explosive-play rates would not copy forward. A.J. Brown as the full-time WR1 via trade, Romeo Doubs next to him, and Alijah Vera-Tucker on the interior were the 2026 pieces that made 14 wins something other than a ceiling the club had to relive. The secondary, ranked fifth entering the season, had already proven itself as the roster's defensive strength. Maye's Cover 6 vulnerability, Chaisson's departure, and the health lever are why the record could not just be copied forward.

The first month already tested that thesis. New England lost 13-10 at Seattle after a late collapse, beat Pittsburgh 20-3 behind the defense, got flattened 35-6 at Jacksonville while injuries mounted, then won 29-26 at Buffalo without Brown, Gonzalez, or Barmore, with Maye producing his best game of the season. Health regression arrived immediately: Brown on injured reserve after Week 1, Onwenu on injured reserve, Landry has not played after opening on the physically unable to perform list. Maye threw seven interceptions in four games after eight all of last season, then went 269 yards and three touchdowns in the upset. One rebound does not restore the 28.8-point offense. It does show why Sharp's preseason Over case still had support.

Sharp's preseason betting snapshot installed them as favorites in 10 of 17 games with a -2.4 average line, -5.4 at home and 0.3 on the road. Last year they were 13-4 against the spread next to 14-3 straight up, so the covers tracked the wins rather than hiding a worse team, and 11-6 to the over matched an offense that actually scored. The 2025 DraftKings cards still split that way: Maye, Brown's Philadelphia sample, and Henry fit GPP/Cash archetypes on last year's salaries, Doubs and Douglas are more tournament-shaped, Hollins is a cheap cash card, and Henderson and Stevenson are volatile GPP backs. Those are historical profiles, not weekly 2026 plays. If Maye's Buffalo night is the 2025 passer returning and Brown comes off injured reserve in Week 6, last year's 14-3 season looks like a high-health outlier that still had a real quarterback. If the Jacksonville version and the minus-five turnover margin follow them through October, it looks much more like the regression already embedded in Sharp's 9.5-win preseason forecast.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.