NFL 2026 PREVIEW: MIAMI DOLPHINS

Miami is 0-5 after five straight losses — to Las Vegas (27-13), San Francisco (35-13), Kansas City (24-10), Minnesota (15-10), and Cincinnati (31-24) — heading into their Week 6 bye winless. Miami finished 7-10 last season, going 6-11 ATS and 10-7 to the Over, scoring 20.4 points per game (25th) while allowing 24.9 (24th). Warren Sharp's preseason forecast of 4.5 wins and fourth-place finish in the AFC East came with the second-hardest schedule (31st), with the market installing Miami as underdogs in 16 of 17 games at a 6.9-point average line—5.6 at home and 8.0 on the road.

Sharp's preseason analysis ranked the roster 28th at quarterback, 29th on the offensive line, and eighth at running back, with the receivers, front seven, and secondary all 32nd. Malik Willis is now the starter. De'Von Achane tore his ACL against Kansas City in Week 3 and went on injured reserve September 28—that eighth-ranked backfield grade predates a season-ending injury.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Malik Willis (QB), Jalen Tolbert (WR), Josh Uche (EDGE), and Bradley Pinion (P).

Key Departures: Tua Tagovailoa (QB) (released), Bradley Chubb (EDGE) (released), Tyreek Hill (WR), Jaylen Waddle (WR) to the Broncos, Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) to the Jets, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR) (released), Tyrel Dodson (LB) (released), James Daniels (RG), Cole Strange (LG) to the Chargers, Julian Hill (TE) to the Patriots, Larry Borom (RT) to the Lions, Alec Ingold (FB) to the Chargers, Ifeatu Melifonwu (CB), Jake Bailey (P) to the Falcons, Ashtyn Davis (S), Liam Eichenberg (C), Benito Jones (IDL), Darren Waller (TE), Kader Kohou (CB) to the Chiefs, Joe Cardona (LS) to the Rams, Rasul Douglas (CB), Jason Sanders (K) to the Giants, Kendall Lamm (LT), Elijah Campbell (S) to the Giants, K.J. Britt (LB) to the Patriots, Zach Wilson (QB) to the Saints, Artie Burns (CB), Alexander Mattison (RB), D'Wayne Eskridge (WR), Jack Jones (CB) to the 49ers, Caleb Johnson (LB), Cedrick Wilson Jr. (WR), Daniel Brunskill (RG), Quinton Bell (EDGE), Yodny Cajuste (LT), Isaiah Johnson (CB), Jason Maitre (CB), and Obinna Eze (LT).

Jeff Hafley is the new head coach — Warren Sharp ranks the job 30th — with first-year coordinators Bobby Slowik and Sean Duggan handling offense and defense. The scale of departure from the 2025 roster is massive. Miami released Tua Tagovailoa and signed Malik Willis at quarterback. The one-year wideout additions (Tutu Atwell, Terrace Marshall) did not survive camp; Atwell was traded to the Rams on August 27, Marshall released August 30, leaving only Jalen Tolbert with one catch through five games. Four offensive-line starters returned. Kadyn Proctor has started the first five games at left guard; the current line is Patrick Paul, Proctor, Aaron Brewer, Jonah Savaiinaea, and Austin Jackson.

On the defensive side, the front seven lost Bradley Chubb (released) and the secondary lost Minkah Fitzpatrick (traded to the Jets). Tyrel Dodson was released at final cuts. Jordyn Brooks remains the veteran linebacker; rookie Jacob Rodriguez now starts next to him. Josh Uche signed in March and is listed first-team at EDGE opposite Chop Robinson. Riley Patterson is still kicking, and Bradley Pinion replaced Jake Bailey at punter.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Miami spent the 12th pick on Alabama tackle Kadyn Proctor, who has started the first five games at left guard. Chris Johnson (27th, nickel corner) is already starting: 31 tackles through five games and a forced fumble on Samaje Perine against Cincinnati. Jacob Rodriguez (43rd, Texas Tech) is the starter next to Brooks and leads the club with 57 tackles and an interception.

The skill positions came later. Caleb Douglas (75th, Texas Tech) has 113 receiving yards despite missing Week 5. Chris Bell (94th, Louisville) has 92. Kevin Coleman Jr. (177th, Missouri) scored his first NFL touchdown against Cincinnati. Michael Taaffe (158th, Texas) already has an interception. Trey Moore opened on injured reserve and is still expected back. Max Llewellyn (238th, Iowa) was waived August 31. The remaining picks—Kacmarek, Louis, Traore, Campbell—remain developmental.

Sharp Forecasts Miami Dolphins with 4.5 Wins

Over Case: Warren Sharp's over on 4.5 lives on two pieces: Malik Willis and De'Von Achane. Willis ranked first in EPA per play on 47 dropbacks among 60 quarterbacks with at least 40 attempts last year—and also first on 117 dropbacks since 2024 among 62 qualifiers. That sample can regress significantly and still beat Tua Tagovailoa's 27th-ranked EPA per dropback. Achane was second in yards per touch (6.0) among 43 backs with 150-plus touches, sixth in scrimmage yards (1,838), and first in 10-yard runs (16.8%). Willis threw zero interceptions across his Green Bay sample after Miami ranked 29th with 18 picks. That passing floor paired with Achane's rushing ceiling was the Over case at 4.5.

Under Case: Miami cut Tyreek Hill and traded Jaylen Waddle—the vertical layer. What remains is a young pass-catching room. Sharp looked at Tutu Atwell and Terrace Marshall as one-year depth at publication, but both departed camp—Atwell was traded to the Rams on August 27, Marshall released August 30, leaving only Jalen Tolbert with one catch through five games. The 2025 defense ranked 26th in yards allowed per play, per pass attempt, and pressure rate, then released Bradley Chubb and traded Minkah Fitzpatrick. Rasul Douglas was still searching for a job at publication. A first-time head coach (Jeff Hafley) and a quarterback with six career starts (Willis) draw the second-hardest strength of schedule after Miami played the fifth-easiest last year. If Willis faces 30-plus dropbacks because the defense collapses to 27 points, the under does not need receivers to fail. It just needs the game state where Willis struggles.

Five games in, Sharp's Over case has been badly damaged. Achane is out for the year, while Willis's elite Green Bay passing efficiency has not translated even though his rushing ability has. Willis is 73-of-130 (56.2%), 849 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT with 14 sacks. The Under has dominated, though Sharp's preseason cases stand unchanged.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -6 days.

Miami is 0-5 entering the Week 6 bye. The only rest-advantage game is Week 7 at the Jets (+7). New England visits the following week at −3. Later rest edges land at Denver (−2), versus the Chargers (−3), and versus Buffalo (−2). That is five rest-disadvantage weeks plus one advantage, six rest-edge games, and a season net of −6 days (26th in the league). Sharp's timing board still lists Miami first in prep and rest; those preseason ranks do not reflect the actual rest-edge picture.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Tua Tagovailoa (15 INT, 1 FL), Quinn Ewers (3 INT), Dee Eskridge (1 FL, special teams return), Tahj Washington (1 FL), Malik Washington (1 FL), Greg Dulcich (1 FL), Jaylen Wright (1 FL). Takeaways: Minkah Fitzpatrick (1 INT, 2 FR), Tyrel Dodson (1 INT, 1 FR), Rasul Douglas (2 INT), Jaelan Phillips (1 FR), Dante Trader Jr. (1 FR), Bradley Chubb (1 FR)

Miami finished −4 in 2025, driven largely by interceptions: 24 giveaways (27th) and 18 interceptions (29th), with Tua Tagovailoa responsible for 15 of those picks. The 2026 picture has shifted. Through five games the margin is −4 again, but Willis has already thrown four interceptions after his Green Bay streak of zero. The flip side: Jacob Rodriguez, Michael Taaffe, and Dante Trader Jr. have combined for three interceptions from the rebuilt defense. Last year's 2025 takeaway leaders—Fitzpatrick, Rasul Douglas, Tyrel Dodson, Bradley Chubb—are all gone.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Tua Tagovailoa 195 yards; Quinn Ewers 59 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 35/500 ≈ 7.0% of shotgun plays; 2/263 ≈ 0.8% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Bradley Chubb (8.5), Zach Sieler (5.5), Tyrel Dodson (5), Chop Robinson (4)

Miami allowed 38 sacks in 2025 (16th), with 35 coming on shotgun snaps. Willis faced an 11.0% sack rate in Green Bay. Through five games, the offense has already surrendered 14 sacks. Miami recorded 39 sacks last year (15th), including 28 with four rushers. Bradley Chubb's 8.5 led the club and he is gone. Tyrel Dodson's 5.0 left too. Through five games Miami has four defensive sacks. The pass-rush concern has shown up immediately. The run defense has not: opponents are averaging 3.7 yards per carry, sixth-best, and no one has exceeded 4.0.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 1 (#7) — Malik Washington (punt return).

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 2 (#28) — Antonio Gibson (kickoff return) and Isaiah Williams (punt return).

Kickoff returner Malik Washington: 36 returns for 965 yards.

Punt returner Malik Washington: 20 returns for 260 yards.

Punt returns 21 for 279 yards; kickoff returns 65 for 1716 yards.

Malik Washington handled 20 of 21 punt returns for 260 yards and scored Miami's only return touchdown in 2025, plus 36 kickoff returns for 965 yards. Special-teams coverage allowed two return scores: a kickoff and a punt.

Through five 2026 games, the return game has shifted. The depth chart still lists Washington as KR1 and PR1, but actual usage shows Jaylen Wright at 12 kickoff returns for 335 yards, Washington at 10 for 225, and Washington with four punt returns. Cincinnati opened Week 5 with an 81-yard kickoff return that set up the first Bengals touchdown—an immediate reminder of special-teams volatility.

Penalties

Offense: 54 penalties for 370 yards (#6). Most common: False Start (20), Offensive Holding (12), Delay of Game (7). Most flags in Shotgun (12), Under Center (4), Pistol (3). Most flagged players: Patrick Paul (8), Aaron Brewer (5), Larry Borom (5).

Defense: 47 penalties for 441 yards (#16), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 2 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Holding (6), Illegal Contact (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (9), Cover 2 (8), Cover 3 (3). Most flagged players: Jack Jones (8), Zach Sieler (4), Minkah Fitzpatrick (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Miami drew 101 accepted penalties for 811 yards, ninth-fewest on the Hacking DFS scale where first is fewest. The offense was the cleaner half: 54 flags for 370 yards (sixth). False start (20) and offensive holding (12) led the types. The largest raw formation counts were shotgun (12), under center (4), and pistol (3). Patrick Paul led the club with eight accepted flags, then Aaron Brewer and Larry Borom with five apiece.

The defense was 47 for 441 yards (16th). Defensive pass interference (8), defensive holding (6), and illegal contact (5) led the types. Cover 1 had the most raw flags (9), then Cover 2 (8) and Cover 3 (3). Jack Jones led with eight, Zach Sieler and Minkah Fitzpatrick with four each. Jones and Fitzpatrick are both gone.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 724 plays, 43.4% success, 0.03 EPA/play (#16). Most efficient on early downs: Darren Waller (25 plays, 0.55 EPA/play), Greg Dulcich (26 plays, 0.42 EPA/play), Tyreek Hill (19 plays, 0.36 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 143 plays, 44.8% success, 0.04 EPA/play (#13). Most efficient in the red zone: Darren Waller (8 plays, 1.78 EPA/play), Jaylen Waddle (11 plays, 0.54 EPA/play), Ollie Gordon II (21 plays, 0.25 EPA/play).

Miami ranked 16th in early-down EPA and 13th in red-zone EPA in 2025. Darren Waller, Greg Dulcich, and Tyreek Hill had the highest individual EPA/play marks in the displayed early-down sample; Waller, Jaylen Waddle, and Ollie Gordon II had the highest in the red zone. Waller, Waddle, and Hill are gone. Dulcich and Gordon remain.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -5.2 (#27); they passed 47.9% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Tua Tagovailoa (44.8% success on 415 pass plays), Quinn Ewers (40.7% success on 91 pass plays).

On rushes: De'Von Achane (38.2% success on 238 rush plays), Ollie Gordon II (40.0% success on 70 rush plays), Jaylen Wright (47.1% success on 70 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Miami ran 45.0% of the time (10th) on 424 rush plays, passing 55.0% (23rd) on 518 pass plays. Neutral-down pass rate over expected was −5.2 (27th). The ground game averaged 4.84 yards per rush play (sixth), strong per-play yardage, while pass plays averaged 5.93 yards (20th). The efficiency picture inverted, though: 43.6% success on pass plays (21st) versus 39.9% on rush plays (28th). Jaylen Wright's play-by-play success was 47.1% on 70 rush plays, Gordon 40.0% on 70, and Achane 38.2% on 238.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Miami generated 59 explosives for 1,705 yards (13th), with 43 through the air and 16 on the ground. Jaylen Waddle led with 14 for 408 yards and is gone. De'Von Achane led the rush side with 13 for 449 plus four receiving explosives; his 2026 season ended with the ACL tear in Week 3. The offense beat Cover 3 most often (19 explosives for 572 yards), then Cover 2 (11 for 282)—raw counts reflecting where the big plays happened, not which coverage the offense attacked most efficiently.

The defense allowed 66 explosives for 1,939 yards (22nd), 50 through the air. Cover 2 had the largest raw explosive total, 18 for 476 yards, followed by Cover 1 (15 for 452) and Cover 3 (13 for 357). Cover 4 allowed 2 for 43 on a smaller sample. Rhamondre Stevenson was the most prolific opponent with 4 rushing explosives for 132 yards.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Eleven personnel was Miami's workhorse (575 plays, 1.13 fantasy points per play), while 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR) was the efficient option (156 plays, 1.74 FP/play). Waddle, Julian Hill, and Waller all played those 12-personnel snaps; they are gone. Twenty-one and 22 personnel were minor changeups. Shotgun dominated the formations (500 plays, 1.44 FP/play) versus under center (263, 1.31) and pistol (179, 1.09). The selection of Will Kacmarek at tight end suggests Slowik wants to maintain heavier packages despite the perimeter turnover.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #1; play-action rank #8 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Miami used motion at the league's highest rate (665 plays, 70.6%), but those plays produced fewer full-PPR points per play than snaps without motion (1.27 versus 1.50). Play action was the smaller sample — 146 plays, 15.5%, eighth — and it is the look that actually scored more: 2.07 full PPR points per play with play action versus 1.20 without it.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Miami released Tua Tagovailoa after a season ranked 32nd in interception rate (3.9%) and 22nd in yards per attempt. His 14 DraftKings weeks averaged 13.5 points with a 9.1 floor, 22.7 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, −0.06 EPA per dropback, and −0.1% CPOE. Malik Willis is now the starter.

Across 2024-25 in Green Bay, Willis completed 70 of 89 passes for 972 yards, 10.9 yards per attempt, six touchdowns, and zero interceptions. In his 47-dropback 2025 sample, he ranked first in EPA per play among the qualifying group Sharp cited. That sample powered Sharp's Over case. Through five Dolphins games, though, he is 73-of-130 (56.2%), 849 yards, 2 TD, 4 INT, 6.5 yards per attempt with a 68.4 rating and 14 sacks. Against Cincinnati he went 15-of-27 for 137 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT—but also ran for 74 yards and a touchdown, part of a 194-yard rushing afternoon in a 331-yard total on a Miami loss. The athleticism is translating. The passing efficiency has not.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Warren Sharp ranks Miami's receivers 32nd after releasing Tyreek Hill and trading Jaylen Waddle. Waddle led 2025 with 100 targets; in four games with Miami, Hill commanded a 28.7% target share on 29 targets. Both are gone, along with Darren Waller (33 targets, +26.1 receiving EPA) and Julian Hill (20). Greg Dulcich caught 33 targets in nine games and remains. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had 20 targets in nine 2025 games and was released in February.

Through five 2026 games, the receiving hierarchy looks completely different. Malik Washington leads with 23 catches for 262 yards. Dulcich has 13 for 127. Caleb Douglas (7-113) missed Week 5 with an ankle injury. Chris Bell (5-92), Ryan Miller (3-92-1), and Kevin Coleman Jr. (5-36-1) round out the production. Jalen Tolbert, the lone surviving one-year wideout from camp, has one catch for 22 yards. Justin Joly was out against Cincinnati with a concussion. This is a young, improvised offense forced onto rookies and holdovers.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

De'Von Achane is why Sharp ranked the backfield eighth. He handled 238 carries in 16 games with +7.3 rush EPA, +1.0 RYOE per attempt, and a 39.9% NFL+ success rate. Among 43 backs with 150-plus touches, he was second in yards per touch, sixth in scrimmage yards, and first in 10-yard runs. His 2026 season ended in Week 3: 127 rushing yards, 49 receiving, zero touchdowns, then an ACL tear against Kansas City and injured reserve on September 28.

Ollie Gordon II now leads Miami with 236 rushing yards on 47 carries and three touchdowns, including an 18-88-1 performance against Cincinnati. Willis has 186 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The official depth chart lists Jaylen Wright first and Gordon second, but recent usage favors Gordon. Wright's 2025 sample was 70 carries for −10.7 rush EPA and a 45.7% NFL+ success rate—not a player the offense is leaning on. Gordon and Willis are carrying the 2026 run game after Achane's injury.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): De'Von Achane 12 (8 rush, 4 rec); Darren Waller 6 rec; Jaylen Waddle 6 rec; Malik Washington 4 (1 rush, 3 rec); Ollie Gordon II 4 (3 rush, 1 rec). Passing TDs: Tua Tagovailoa 20, Quinn Ewers 3. Defense TDs: none in the nflverse season table. Special teams: Riley Patterson 27/29 FG, 34/35 XP; Malik Washington 1.

Achane scored 12 touchdowns in 2025 (8 rushing, 4 receiving). Tua threw 20 of 23 passing scores. Darren Waller and Jaylen Waddle each caught 6 and both are gone. Through five 2026 games, Miami has scored 70 total points—14.0 per game, down from last year's 20.4. Seven offensive touchdowns: five rushing, two passing. Gordon and Willis are doing the finishing. The defense scored none last year; Patterson made 27-of-29 field goals.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Miami's 2025 scoring identity was dominated by a third-quarter collapse. The Dolphins ranked dead last on both sides immediately after halftime: just 1.6 points scored and 7.6 allowed in the third quarter (32nd either way). The second quarter showed more balance—7.1 points offensively (15th) and 5.3 allowed (8th). The third quarter was the clear weakness on both sides of the ball; the quarter splits alone do not establish why.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #32, Secondary #32.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Jordyn Brooks led the club with 183 tackles; Bradley Chubb 8.5 sacks, Zach Sieler 5.5 sacks, Tyrel Dodson 5.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Jordyn Brooks: 13 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 3 PD; Tyrel Dodson: 10 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD; Minkah Fitzpatrick: 4 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD; Jack Jones: 4 TFL, 1 INT, 6 PD; Ashtyn Davis: 3 TFL, 1 INT, 4 PD; Rasul Douglas: 2 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 2 INT, 13 PD; Bradley Chubb: 8 TFL, 8.5 sacks; Zach Sieler: 10 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 1 PD.

Warren Sharp ranks the front seven and secondary both 32nd. Jordyn Brooks (183 tackles in 2025) remains the veteran linebacker. Tyrel Dodson was released at final cuts. Rookie Jacob Rodriguez now starts next to Brooks and already leads Miami with 57 tackles plus an interception. Bradley Chubb's 8.5 sacks are 2025 production. Through five games, Miami has only four sacks; Uche has one of them. Kenneth Grant was activated from injured reserve on October 10. Trey Moore remains on injured reserve.

The young defensive core has supplied the surprise splash plays, not shutdown coverage: Rodriguez, Taaffe and Trader already have interceptions, and Johnson forced the Perine fumble Robinson recovered, but Miami has allowed 11 passing touchdowns through five games. Opponents have completed 111 of 145 passes (76.6%) at 7.8 yards per attempt. The pass rush has been largely absent outside the four-sack Minnesota performance, while the run defense has quietly held opponents to 3.7 yards per carry. Against Cincinnati, Joe Burrow threw four touchdowns on 190 passing yards.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Miami's coverage leaked in the wrong direction. Cover 2 (208 snaps) allowed 1.88 fantasy points per play (25th). Cover 3 (143 snaps, 1.99, 27th) and Cover 1 (120 snaps, 2.53, 31st) were the expensive single-high shells. Cover 1 was the real problem.

Cover 4 (42 snaps) and 2-Man (28 snaps) performed better: 1.85 and 1.72 fantasy points per play, respectively. Those rates describe where points leaked, not which coverage Sean Duggan should call more. A more effective pass rush could reduce time to throw against those single-high looks; it does not determine how often Miami uses them.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Riley Patterson: 27/29 FG, 34/35 PAT.

Jake Bailey led with 63 punts (21 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Malik Washington: 36 returns for 965 yards.

Punt returner Malik Washington: 20 returns for 260 yards.

Special teams tackler Cameron Goode: 14 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Riley Patterson was 27-of-29 on field goals in 2025 and remains Miami's kicker, at 7-of-9 through five games. Jake Bailey punted 63 times with 21 inside the 20 and left for the Falcons. Bradley Pinion has taken over: 17 punts, 45.5-yard gross average, six inside the 20. Washington handled both return jobs in 2025. Through 2026, kickoff duties have split: Jaylen Wright is at 12 for 335 yards, Washington at 10 for 225.

Penalty Analysis

The Sharp Football Preview penalty analysis gives Miami a C for Penalties & Discipline. The positive half: Miami was among the least-penalized offenses on third down and generated the most opponent false-start penalties per game at home. The negative half is the net math. Miami generated the fewest opponent penalties per game after ranking fifth in 2024, generated the fewest fourth-quarter defensive penalties, and ranked 32nd in offensive automatic first downs via penalty. The defense tied Detroit for second-most automatic first downs surrendered per game. That is the league's worst net automatic-first-down penalty differential.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 54 penalties for 370 yards (#6). Most common: False Start (20), Offensive Holding (12), Delay of Game (7). Most flags in Shotgun (12), Under Center (4), Pistol (3). Most flagged players: Patrick Paul (8), Aaron Brewer (5), Larry Borom (5).

Defense: 47 penalties for 441 yards (#16), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 2 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Holding (6), Illegal Contact (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (9), Cover 2 (8), Cover 3 (3). Most flagged players: Jack Jones (8), Zach Sieler (4), Minkah Fitzpatrick (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Miami's offensive penalties clustered in predictable places: 20 false starts, 7 delays of game, and 2 too-many-men before the snap; then 12 offensive holding calls and 2 ineligible downfield passes after. Patrick Paul (8), Aaron Brewer (5), and Larry Borom (5) led the count.

On defense, penalties clustered in coverage: 8 pass interference, 6 defensive holding, 5 illegal contact, plus 4 neutral-zone infractions and 3 unnecessary roughness. Cover 1 (9 flags) and Cover 2 (8) had the most. Jack Jones (8 flags) and Minkah Fitzpatrick (4) were the most flagged—both are now gone.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp preseason fantasy rank: De’Von Achane RB13.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: De'Von Achane (20.1 FPavg), Tyreek Hill (13.4 FPavg), Jaylen Waddle (12.1 FPavg), Tua Tagovailoa (11.4 FPavg), Darren Waller (11.1 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Cover 3 was the volume coverage (191 plays, 1.67 fantasy points per play) and Jaylen Waddle's 77 points there are gone. Cover 4 was efficient (2.75 on 61 plays), led by Achane's 32 and Waddle's 28. Cover 2 is where Malik Washington showed up (29 points) behind Achane's 39. Cover 6 was the dead zone at 0.85, staffed by Hill and Waller.

Achane led scoring against Cover 4, Cover 2, and 2-Man. Washington is the returning wideout with a sample against two-high looks. Waddle's Cover 3 volume will not automatically transfer to whoever lines up there in 2026.

Skill adds: Malik Willis (QB), Jalen Tolbert (WR), and rookies Caleb Douglas (WR), Chris Bell (WR), and Kevin Coleman Jr. (WR).

Skill losses: Tua Tagovailoa (QB) (released), Tyreek Hill (WR), Jaylen Waddle (WR) to the Broncos, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (WR) (released), Julian Hill (TE) to the Patriots, Alec Ingold (FB) to the Chargers, Darren Waller (TE), Zach Wilson (QB) to the Saints, Alexander Mattison (RB), D'Wayne Eskridge (WR), and Cedrick Wilson Jr. (WR).

Skill draft picks: Caleb Douglas (WR, Rd 3), Will Kacmarek (TE, Rd 3), Chris Bell (WR, Rd 3, Louisville), Kevin Coleman Jr. (WR, Rd 5), and Seydou Traore (TE, Rd 5).

The 2025 DraftKings sample still runs through De'Von Achane. Hill, Waddle, Waller, and Tua Tagovailoa are 2025 cards, not 2026 profiles.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: De'Von Achane's 16-game card averaged 21.3 points with a 16.6 floor, 34.0 ceiling, six Slate Hits, at $7,800 per game, yielding 2.74 FP/$. He had both a playable floor and spike ceiling. The ACL tear against Kansas City ended his 2026 role.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Malik Willis's Green Bay sample is tournament-shaped: four weeks at 13.3 average, 5.8 floor, 33.5 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $4,300, 2.90 FP/$. The floor is not usable for cash; those are 2025 Packers weeks.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Jaylen Wright's nine-game card averaged 5.9 with a thin 1.7 floor and 12.3 ceiling on one Slate Hit at $4,000. That one spike finish is tournament-shaped.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Malik Washington's 17-game card averaged 6.7 with a 4.0 floor, 10.2 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, at $3,800. Cheap with a modest floor; he leads Miami in receiving through five games.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Greg Dulcich's nine-game card averaged 7.4 with a 4.4 floor, 9.9 ceiling, one Slate Hit, at $2,500 for 2.90 FP/$. The salary and value are the selling points; the ceiling is too modest for GPP. He is Miami's tight end and second in receiving yards.

Inside Scoop

Miami finished 7-10 last season, and Warren Sharp's preseason forecast of 4.5 wins and fourth place in the AFC East rested on two pieces: Malik Willis's tiny but elite-EPA Green Bay numbers and De'Von Achane's explosiveness. Jeff Hafley inherited a roster Sharp ranked last at receiver, front seven, and secondary after Miami released Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, and Bradley Chubb and traded Jaylen Waddle and Minkah Fitzpatrick. The backfield still ranked eighth on Achane's talent alone, so the Over lived on that explosive rate plus Willis's EPA burst.

Five games have already badly damaged that Over case. Miami is 0-5 entering the bye. Achane's ACL tear in Week 3 ended his season. Willis's athleticism has shown up in the run game (186 yards, 2 TD), but the passing efficiency Sharp bet on has not: 56.2%, four interceptions, 14 sacks. Ollie Gordon II and Malik Washington are carrying an offense built on drafted rookies and holdovers. The rebuilt defense has four sacks and four takeaways, with young defenders Rodriguez, Taaffe, Trader and Johnson all involved in turnovers. The young defensive core has generated as many takeaways as the pass rush has sacks. Next comes plus-7 rest at the Jets. The central question is whether Gordon, Washington and the young defensive core can establish a functional floor, or whether 0-5 is already the season.

Sharp's preseason betting snapshot had Miami as a favorite in one game and an underdog in 16, at a 6.9-point average line (5.6 at home, 8.0 on the road). Last year Miami covered in six games (6-11 ATS) while going 10-7 to the over. Achane's 2025 DraftKings profile is historical GPP/Cash now ended by injury; Willis's Packers weeks are tournament-shaped; Wright carries a thinner-floor GPP archetype; Washington and Dulcich are cheap Cash. Those are 2025 archetypes, not weekly 2026 plays. So far, seven wins looks much closer to a high-water mark than a floor.

---

Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.