September 26, 2026
Baltimore is 1-1 after a 41-23 win at Indianapolis and a 24-17 home loss to New Orleans. Sharp's preseason forecast was 11.5 wins, treating last year's 8-9 as incomplete. The 2025 Ravens went 2-5 in one-score games. Lamar Jackson played 13 games, including a three-game hamstring absence after Week 4, and finished with a career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game plus last among 36 quarterbacks in red-zone EPA per attempt (-0.53). Nnamdi Madubuike's neck ended his season after 1.5 games. That same preseason snapshot had Baltimore first in the AFC North behind a quarterback room Sharp ranks second, with an offensive line ranked 24th and a receiving corps ranked 25th.
September 26, 2026
Cincinnati is 2-0, and last year's 6-11 already looks like two teams stapled together. Joe Burrow went 5-3 in eight starts; a Week 2 turf-toe injury that required surgery knocked him out of the other nine, and the Bengals went 1-8 without him. Warren Sharp's preseason forecast is 9.5 wins and second in the AFC North, a rebound that leans on the third-easiest schedule and a quarterback room he ranks third. Last year's scoring split is why that number jumped so far off six wins: Cincinnati scored 24.4 points per game (12th) and allowed 28.9 (30th), going 7-10 against the spread and 9-8 to the over.
September 25, 2026
Cleveland opened 2026 by getting embarrassed 34-10 in Jacksonville, then came back and beat Tampa Bay 23-19. Deshaun Watson is the starter after missing all of 2025 with an Achilles injury: through two games he is 40-of-52 for 443 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and a 112.9 passer rating. Last year's defense carried a 5-12 roster that scored 16.4 points per game (31st) and allowed 22.3 (14th). Week 2 is the first evidence that the rebuilt offense might stop wasting that unit while Week 1 looked like 2025 all over again.
September 24, 2026
Tennessee went 3-14 last season and rarely made it a fight. They are already 0-2, but the two losses looked nothing alike. Week 1 looked disturbingly familiar: a 23-10 loss to the Jets, only 195 total yards, and Tennessee's lone touchdown in the final minutes. Week 2 was different. The Titans lost 24-20 to Philadelphia after leading 20-17 with 14 seconds left, and Cam Ward jumped from 140 passing yards and 4.4 yards per attempt in the opener to 183 yards at 9.2 against the Eagles.
September 23, 2026
Indianapolis is 0-2 after an 8-9 season that scored 27.4 points per game (8th) and allowed 24.2 (21st), going 7-10 against the spread and 9-8 to the over. Baltimore won 41-23 and then Kansas City needed overtime to win 33-30 in Week 2. Warren Sharp still has the Colts at 7.5 wins and third in the AFC South, with the ninth-easiest schedule, a 1.1 average line, minus-0.8 at home and 2.8 on the road, six as favorites and 11 as underdogs.
September 22, 2026
Las Vegas spent 2025 as a 3-14 club that scored a league-worst 14.2 points per game, allowed 25.4 (25th), and matched that record against the spread at 3-14 while going 8-9 to the over. Sharp's preseason forecast projected them for 5.5 wins and fourth in the AFC West on a 17th-ranked schedule, and his betting snapshot priced them as an average 4.7-point underdog (4.0 at home, 5.3 on the road) in 14 of 17 games. Two games into 2026 they have already banked two of those wins — 27-13 over Miami and 26-14 at the Chargers — without Brock Bowers.
September 19, 2026
Fourteen wins created enormous expectations in Denver. The Chiefs beat the Broncos 31-10 in Week 1, a reminder that 2025 does not carry over automatically. Last year they went 14-3 ATS and 7-10 to the over, with a defense that allowed 18.3 points per game (third) and an offense at 23.6 (14th). Warren Sharp has the Broncos at 9.5 wins and third in the AFC West, with a schedule ranked 22nd on a 1-to-32 scale where one is easiest — the 11th-hardest slate. His preseason snapshot installed them as favorites in ten games and underdogs in seven, a -1.7 average line, -2.1 at home and -1.3 on the road.
September 19, 2026
The Los Angeles Chargers enter 2026 coming off an 11-6 season that looked more competitive than explosive: they matched that record against the spread, went 7-10 to the over, and scored 21.6 points per game (20th) while allowing only 20.0 (ninth). Warren Sharp still has them at 10.5 wins and second in the AFC West, and his preseason betting snapshot already treated Los Angeles as a favorite in 11 games and a dog in six, a -2.3 average line built on -5.0 at home and 0.2 on the road. The schedule ranks 11th on his 1-to-32 scale. Arizona already won 26-14 in SoFi in Week 1, which is the first real test of whether last year's defensive floor can cover an offense that is still finding its pieces.
September 17, 2026
A frustrating 6-11 campaign in 2025 masked a defense that held opponents to 19.3 points per game (sixth fewest in the league) while the offense mustered only 21.3 points per game (ranked 21st). That gap fueled an 11-6 mark against the spread alongside a 4-13 record toward game-total overs. Warren Sharp’s forecast anticipates a sharp rebound in 2026, projecting 10.5 wins and a first-place finish in the AFC West. Sharp's preseason betting snapshot listed Kansas City as favorites in 11 of 17 contests with a season-average spread of -2.9 points, stretching from -5.6 at home to -0.4 on the road. Navigating that bounce is aided by the league's 10th-easiest schedule on Sharp's scale, where 1 represents the easiest slate and 32 the hardest.
September 16, 2026
The New Orleans Saints enter 2026 after a 6-11 finish that produced 18.0 points per game (28th) and allowed 22.5 (16th). That scoring split showed up in the betting window too: 5-12 against the spread and five overs against 12 unders. Sharp's forecast is 7.5 wins and a second-place NFC South finish, with the league's second-easiest schedule on a scale where 1 is the easiest slate. Sharp's preseason betting snapshot listed New Orleans as a 1.9-point underdog on the season, 0.7-point favorites at home, and 4.7-point underdogs on the road, with five games as a favorite and 12 as an underdog.