NFL 2026 PREVIEW: NEW YORK JETS

The New York Jets are 1-3 after a convincing 23-10 win over Tennessee, a blown 10-point fourth-quarter lead against Green Bay, a near-comeback in Detroit, and a 23-12 loss in Chicago in which the Bears controlled the ball for nearly 43 minutes. Last season they went 3-14, scoring 17.6 points per game (29th) and allowing 29.6 (31st). They covered 1-15-1 against the spread and went 11-6 to the over. Warren Sharp's preseason forecast is 5.5 wins and third place in the AFC East. His betting snapshot installed them as underdogs in 13 of 17 games and favorites in four, with a 4.9-point average line that splits 2.9 at home and 6.6 on the road.

The first month has shown more competent quarterback play without solving the complementary football that defined 2025. Aaron Glenn is ranked 32nd among head coaches, last in the league; the running backs, ranked 14th, remain the strongest unit on the board. Geno Smith arrived via a sixth-round pick swap with Las Vegas as a bridge starter rather than a savior, while a defense that recorded zero interceptions and 26 sacks last year tries to become something other than the reason for the franchise reset at last year's trade deadline.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Joseph Ossai (EDGE), Demario Davis (LB), David Onyemata (IDL) (IR), Kingsley Enagbare (EDGE), Dylan Parham (LG), Dane Belton (S), Nahshon Wright (CB), and Jason Sanders (K); Minkah Fitzpatrick (S) (via trade), Geno Smith (QB) (via trade), and T'Vondre Sweat (IDL) (via trade).

Key Departures: Alijah Vera-Tucker (RG) to the Patriots, Justin Fields (QB) to the Chiefs, John Simpson (LG) to the Ravens, Quincy Williams (LB) to the Browns, Nick Folk (K) to the Falcons, Josh Reynolds (WR), Isaiah Oliver (CB), Tyrod Taylor (QB) to the Packers, Tony Adams (S) to the Titans, John Metchie III (WR) to the Panthers, Kris Boyd (CB), Cam Jones (LB) to the Giants, Stone Smartt (TE) to the Eagles, Ja'Sir Taylor (CB) to the Bengals, Jay Tufele (IDL) to the Lions, Tyler Johnson (WR) to the Cowboys, Hendon Hooker (QB) to the Titans, Jermaine Johnson (EDGE) (traded), Khalen Saunders (IDL), Khalil Herbert (RB), Keilan Robinson (RB), and Leander Wiegand (LG).

Aaron Glenn enters year two ranked 32nd among head coaches by Warren Sharp, the first time in six years of those ballots that the last-place coach is not a rookie. Frank Reich takes over as offensive coordinator. Brian Duker is the new defensive coordinator, though Sharp writes that Glenn will call the defensive plays himself. The quarterback move is a low-cost return rather than a swing: New York sent a sixth-round pick swap to Las Vegas for Geno Smith, with the Raiders eating most of the salary after drafting Fernando Mendoza first overall. Justin Fields left for the Chiefs, Tyrod Taylor for the Packers, and Hendon Hooker for the Titans. Dylan Parham signed at left guard after Alijah Vera-Tucker went to the Patriots and John Simpson to the Ravens.

The defense is where the club actually spent. Quincy Williams signed with the Browns; Jermaine Johnson was dealt in the T'Vondre Sweat trade. New York signed Demario Davis, David Onyemata, Joseph Ossai, and Kingsley Enagbare in free agency, and added Sweat and Minkah Fitzpatrick via trade. Dane Belton and Nahshon Wright are the secondary free-agent pieces after Tony Adams left for the Titans. This offseason was built to stabilize a 3-14 roster before New York could seriously talk about playoff contention.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

The Jets made three first-round picks targeting last year's weaknesses. At No. 2 they took Texas Tech pass rusher David Bailey, who posted 14.5 sacks in his final college season and a 33.6% pressure rate against traditional dropbacks—the highest mark of any player over the last two seasons. The fit is clear for a defense that finished 31st in sacks, and Bailey already has two sacks through four games. At No. 16, via the Colts pick from the Sauce Gardner trade, they added Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq, a yards-after-catch weapon Sharp framed as a complement to Mason Taylor. Through four games that complement has already produced: 12 catches for 143 yards and a touchdown, including a 7-105-1 breakout at Detroit. They then traded back into the first round at No. 30 for Indiana wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. Sharp notes that 84% of Cooper's college yardage came from the slot, so the Jets concentrated their three first-round selections on interior weapons rather than stretching the perimeter. Cooper went on injured reserve after an ankle injury in Week 1.

The rest of the board is rotational and developmental. Second-round corner D'Angelo Ponds (pick 50, Indiana) is 5-foot-9 and played outside in college, and Glenn may be willing to keep him there. Darrell Jackson Jr. (fourth round, pick 103, Florida State) projects as Sweat's nose-tackle backup. Cade Klubnik (fourth round, pick 110, Clemson) is the developmental quarterback behind Smith. Anez Cooper (sixth round, pick 188, Miami) is a physical run-blocking guard for an offensive line that allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.5% of dropbacks last year. He and seventh-round safety VJ Payne (pick 228, Kansas State) are on injured reserve, designated to return. Sharp's preseason read was that Bailey should contribute immediately while Sadiq and Cooper were more about 2027 skill depth. Bailey and Sadiq have already contributed. Omar Cooper's rookie season was interrupted by the Week 1 ankle injury, while Anez Cooper and Payne remain on injured reserve with return designations.

Sharp Forecasts New York Jets with 5.5 Wins

Over Case: Going from 3-14 to 5.5 means climbing from the bottom tier, and the case starts with weaker opponents and a less broken skill group. The Jets went 0-8 against playoff teams and 0-7 against winning records last year; all three wins came against sub-.500 clubs. A fifth-easiest 2026 schedule gives them more of those matchups. Garrett Wilson led the team with 395 receiving yards in only seven games, and first-rounders Omar Cooper Jr. and Kenyon Sadiq are the complementary skill bets in scoring territory. Among 43 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook ranked 33rd, 34th, and 43rd in EPA per play; Smith and fourth-rounder Cade Klubnik are the replacement options. The defense that forced four turnovers added David Onyemata, Demario Davis, Joseph Ossai, and Nahshon Wright in free agency, Sweat and Fitzpatrick via trade, Bailey at pick 2, and D'Angelo Ponds in the second round.

Under Case: Smith is not a lock to raise the floor. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks he ranked 32nd in EPA per play, worse than both Fields and Taylor, and 39th of 43 with 150-plus dropbacks. He was sacked on 28% of dropbacks versus pressure; only Kyler Murray was worse among non-rookies. Nick Folk led the NFL in field-goal percentage for three straight years, including 96.6% in 2025, and kicking that clean is a regression risk. Glenn's first season was 29th in penalty margin, 27th in penalty-yard margin, 26th in net penalty EPA, and 26th in EPA on fourth-down decisions. The offensive line that allowed pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 24.5% of dropbacks lost Vera-Tucker and Simpson. If Smith cannot protect himself and the rebuilt front seven does not create takeaways, five wins is the ceiling rather than the floor.

Four games have split those arguments rather than settling them. Wilson is healthy, Sadiq is already contributing, Smith has dramatically outperformed his Raiders efficiency profile, and the defense is plus-3 in turnover margin with nine sacks. That is the Over case showing up. The Under case is still on the field too: Smith has already taken 12 sacks, penalties remain damaging, the run game is inefficient, the offensive line is injured, and the rebuilt defense just allowed 492 yards to Chicago in Week 4.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -9 days.

The opening stretch is already in the books. New York went to Tennessee, hosted Green Bay, then played Detroit on a minus-3-day rest edge and Chicago with extra rest, and it is 1-3 heading into this week. Cleveland visits in Week 5 on another minus-3, a 3-1 Browns club against a Jets team trying to stop a three-game losing streak. The steepest remaining deficits are minus-7 at home against Miami in Week 7 and minus-7 at Arizona in Week 15. Those two bye-return games are against clubs Sharp called the two worst teams in the league, which is the only reason the rest math is not worse than it looks. Season net rest is still minus-9 days, 29th in the league, because the deficits are larger than the edges.

The four remaining extra-rest games are Week 10 against Buffalo, Week 11 at the Chargers, Week 14 against Denver at plus-7 after the bye, and Week 16 against New England. From Week 6 through 18, Sharp notes that every remaining rest-disparity game except those two bye-return spots tilts toward New York. Short-week road games still rank 29th. Prep and rest ranks of first sit next to that net-rest hole; the weekly opponents and rest edges are what actually describe the year.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Brady Cook (7 INT, 1 FL), Tyrod Taylor (5 INT, 1 FL), Justin Fields (1 INT, 3 FL), Breece Hall (2 FL), Xavier Gipson (1 FL, special teams return), Braelon Allen (1 FL), Isaiah Williams (1 FL, special teams return). Takeaways: Andre Cisco (1 FR), Malachi Moore (1 FR), Qwan'tez Stiggers (1 FR)

New York finished minus-19 in turnover margin, last in the league. The offense gave it away 23 times (21st), including 13 interceptions: Brady Cook seven plus a lost fumble, Tyrod Taylor five plus a lost fumble, Justin Fields one interception and three lost fumbles. Breece Hall lost two fumbles, Braelon Allen one, and returners Xavier Gipson and Isaiah Williams one each.

The defense recorded four takeaways and zero interceptions. Interceptions became an official statistic in 1933, and until 2025 every NFL defense that played a full season eventually picked one off. The Jets faced more than 500 opposing dropbacks, watched quarterbacks throw for over 3,600 yards and 36 touchdowns against them, and never came down with the ball. The previous record-low for takeaways in a full season was seven. Minkah Fitzpatrick was the most obvious possible answer for a club that went an entire year without an interception.

That drought did not end immediately. Through four games New York is plus-3 in turnover differential, and Smith has thrown zero interceptions. Fitzpatrick supplied the first interception in Chicago, and the defense produced two takeaways that day. Last year's historic empty takeaway season is no longer the current story. Whether the rebuilt defense can sustain the improved turnover profile is still open.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Justin Fields 192 yards; Brady Cook 125 yards; Tyrod Taylor 82 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 53/703 ≈ 7.5% of shotgun plays; 7/260 ≈ 2.7% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Will McDonald IV (8), Jowon Briggs (4), Quincy Williams (3.5), Jermaine Johnson II (3)

The offense took 60 sacks, 29th in the league, for 192 yards on Fields, 125 on Cook, and 82 on Taylor. Shotgun absorbed 53 of those 60. Warren Sharp ranks the 2026 offensive line 19th after an interior that lost Vera-Tucker and Simpson and added Parham.

The defensive side reveals why Bailey became a priority. New York recorded 26 sacks, tied for 31st, and Sharp had them last in pressure rate. Will McDonald IV led with eight; Jowon Briggs had four. Quincy Williams (3.5) left in free agency, and Jermaine Johnson (three) was dealt in the Sweat trade. Twelve of the 26 sacks came in Cover 1, eighth in raw count. Four-man rushes produced 13 sacks, the lowest raw four-man-rush total in the league. Bailey, Ossai, and Enagbare were the 2026 answers around McDonald, and the first month already moved the count: nine defensive sacks through four games, with Bailey, Demario Davis, and Enagbare at two apiece.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 3 (#1) — Kene Nwangwu (kickoff return) and Isaiah Williams (2 punt returns).

Kickoff returner Isaiah Williams: 28 returns for 837 yards.

Punt returner Isaiah Williams: 28 returns for 396 yards.

Punt returns 34 for 456 yards; kickoff returns 74 for 2210 yards.

Return touchdowns were the one 2025 phase that actually helped. New York scored three punt and kickoff touchdowns, first in the league, and allowed none. Isaiah Williams produced most of it: 28 punts for 396 yards and both punt-return scores, plus 28 kickoff returns for 837 yards. Kene Nwangwu supplied the kickoff touchdown. Those three scores prevented the special-teams margin from becoming another hole on a 3-14 team. Williams is still handling both return jobs — 10 kick returns for 241 yards and five punt returns — and Jason Sanders is the active kicker.

Penalties

Offense: 60 penalties for 417 yards (#16). Most common: False Start (25), Offensive Holding (12), Delay of Game (5). Most flags in Shotgun (15), Under Center (9). Most flagged players: John Simpson (11), Armand Membou (8), Joe Tippmann (7).

Defense: 50 penalties for 492 yards (#21), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (10), Defensive Holding (9), Unnecessary Roughness (3). Most flags on Cover 1 (12), Cover 3 (6), Cover 2 (5). Most flagged players: Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (7), Qwan'tez Stiggers (4), Brandon Stephens (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

The offense was assessed 60 penalties for 417 yards, 16th in the league on a fewest-flags scale. False starts (25) and offensive holding (12) led the types. The largest raw formation counts came from shotgun (15) and under center (9); those totals do not establish which formation was more penalty-prone. John Simpson led the club with 11, Armand Membou had eight, and Joe Tippmann seven. Simpson is gone; Membou and Tippmann remain.

Defensive penalties, including four special-teams holdings on punt returns, totaled 50 flags for 492 yards (21st). Pass interference (10) and defensive holding (9) led the types. Cover 1 had 12 flags, Cover 3 six, Cover 2 five. Jarvis Brownlee Jr. led with seven, Qwan'tez Stiggers four, Brandon Stephens three. The team total was 110 penalties for 909 yards.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 731 plays, 41.6% success, -0.08 EPA/play (#29). Most efficient on early downs: Andrew Beck (8 plays, 0.41 EPA/play), Mason Taylor (48 plays, 0.24 EPA/play), Tyler Johnson (11 plays, 0.24 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 129 plays, 41.9% success, -0.15 EPA/play (#30). Most efficient in the red zone: Justin Fields (14 plays, 0.57 EPA/play), Mason Taylor (9 plays, 0.50 EPA/play), Isaiah Davis (11 plays, 0.11 EPA/play).

Early downs ranked 29th in EPA at minus-0.08 across 731 plays, and the red zone ranked 30th at minus-0.15 across 129. Andrew Beck (0.41 EPA per play on eight early-down plays), Mason Taylor (0.24 on 48), and Tyler Johnson (0.24 on 11) posted the highest individual early-down marks. Johnson is gone. Inside the 20, Fields (0.57 on 14 plays), Taylor (0.50 on nine), and Isaiah Davis (0.11 on 11) were the most efficient names. Fields is gone too. A few efficient players cannot drag a 29th/30th-ranked unit into competence without broader improvement.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -12.9 (#32); they passed 42.7% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Justin Fields (41.2% success on 233 pass plays), Brady Cook (31.2% success on 173 pass plays), Tyrod Taylor (42.9% success on 147 pass plays).

On rushes: Breece Hall (40.7% success on 243 rush plays), Justin Fields (62.3% success on 69 rush plays), Isaiah Davis (34.9% success on 43 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

New York ran more often than most of the league and still did not have a functional passing game. The pass rate was 55.1% on 556 pass plays (22nd); the rush rate was 44.9% on 453 (11th). Neutral-down PROE was minus-12.9, last in the NFL, on a 42.7% pass share. Passing produced 4.27 yards per play (32nd) and a 38.7% success rate (30th). Rushing produced 4.65 yards per play (12th) and a 43.3% success rate (16th). The data say they were a run-heavier team whose passing efficiency was dramatically worse than its rushing efficiency.

On pass plays, Taylor's 42.9% success rate on 147 pass plays led Fields (41.2% on 233) and Cook (31.2% on 173). On rushes, Fields hit 62.3% success on 69 play-by-play rush plays; Hall was 40.7% on 243; Davis 34.9% on 43.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

The Jets generated 39 explosive plays for 1,120 yards, 31st in the league. Most of that was passing (26 for 712 yards), but Breece Hall was the actual chunk-play producer: eight explosive rushes for 239 yards and four explosive catches for 136. Adonai Mitchell and Tyler Johnson each had five explosive receptions; Wilson had four in seven games. Cover 3 produced the largest raw beaten-coverage total at 11 for 293 yards. Those are counts, not efficiency, because usage varies by shell.

The defense allowed 72 explosives for 2,042 yards (28th), 57 through the air. Cover 1 was the leak, 27 plays for 811 yards, with Cover 3 next at 18 for 459. Stefon Diggs had five explosive catches against them; De'Von Achane had three explosive rushes. Sharp had the Jets allowing 20-plus yards on 10.4% of dropbacks, 31st. Minkah Fitzpatrick is the primary candidate to improve that vulnerability.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Eleven personnel was the 2025 offense: 766 plays at 1.05 full-PPR points per play, with Breece Hall, Taylor, Isaiah Williams, John Metchie III, and Arian Smith the most-used names in that package. Twelve personnel (224 plays, 1.10 points per play) was slightly more productive on a per-play basis and featured Breece Hall, Jeremy Ruckert, Taylor, Metchie, and Wilson. Metchie is gone. Arian Smith is on injured reserve. Sharp saw more value in the heavier looks after ranking 11 personnel 31st in EPA per play and 32nd in EPA per pass, against 15th and 16th in 12 and 21 personnel. Sadiq has already produced in that skill room.

Shotgun was 69.9% of snaps (703 plays, 1.11 points per play). Under center was 25.8%. The formation split shows where they lined up.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #5; play-action rank #29 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

The Jets relied heavily on pre-snap motion. They used it on 62.9% of snaps (635 plays), fifth in the league, and those plays produced a 41.6% success rate and 1.11 full-PPR points per play against 0.97 without motion. The usage was high, and the efficiency bump was modest.

Play action told a different story: 10.8% of snaps (109 plays), 29th in the league, with a 46.8% success rate and 1.58 points per play against 1.00 without it. When the Jets called play action, it was efficient.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Jets passers combined to rank 31st in rating at 75.0, completing 60.3% of their throws (29th) at league-worst 5.6 yards per attempt and 9.3 yards per completion, with a 3.0% touchdown rate (30th) and a 2.6% interception rate (25th). Fields started nine games, Taylor four, Cook four. Fields' nine DraftKings games: minus-0.13 EPA per dropback, minus-3.0% CPOE, 16.8 average, 6.0 floor, 28.7 ceiling, one Slate Hit. Cook's five: minus-0.48 EPA, minus-9.4% CPOE, 7.5 average, 5.2 floor, 11.9 ceiling, zero Slate Hits.

Smith's 2025 Raiders profile is why Sharp treated him as a bridge rather than an upgrade. He completed 67.4% (11th among passer-rating qualifiers) at 6.8 yards per attempt (24th), 10.0 yards per completion (29th), a 4.2% touchdown rate (26th), and a 3.8% interception rate (31st). The sack rate that mattered then is still the one that matters now: 10.9% of dropbacks, a league high, and 28% of dropbacks when facing pressure. Among 33 qualified quarterbacks he was 32nd in EPA per play, worse than Fields and Taylor. Sharp ranks the quarterback room 30th. Klubnik is the fourth-round option behind him.

The first month has already challenged the efficiency half of that Under case. Through four Jets games Smith is 85-of-117, 72.6%, 902 yards, five touchdowns, zero interceptions, 7.7 yards per attempt, and a 109.0 rating. He threw for 321 yards and three touchdowns at Detroit, including 11-of-12 for 147 yards under pressure, then the entire offense collapsed to 32 plays at Chicago. He has also taken 12 sacks. Smith has been dramatically better than his 2025 Raiders efficiency profile. The line is still exposing the sack vulnerability Sharp worried about.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Garrett Wilson hyperextended his knee in Week 6 and played 19 snaps the rest of the way. In seven games he still led the club at 26.3% target share and 9.4 air yards per target, turning 59 targets into 1.81 DraftKings points per target. Through Week 6 he ranked third among wide receivers in targets, receptions, and receiving yards (395) and tied for second in touchdowns (four). Without him, Jets receivers averaged 91 yards per game over the final 11 weeks and finished 31st in receiving yards (1,586) for the season.

Mason Taylor led the club with 65 targets, 48 early-down looks, and nine red-zone targets, matching Breece Hall, at 1.37 fantasy points per target and plus-3.2 receiving EPA. Isaiah Williams had 36 targets at 3.2 air yards per target. Mitchell, acquired at the Gardner deadline, had eight red-zone targets and 36 early-down looks in eight Jets games. Metchie, Johnson, Reynolds, and Stone Smartt are gone. Sharp ranks the receivers 23rd; the spread on those ballots was 17th to 28th because nobody knew whether the rookies would play. Cooper was a slot/outside flexible piece behind Wilson.

The first four games have started to validate that health bet. Wilson has 24 catches for 270 yards and two touchdowns, including 10-107-1 at Detroit, and he is the volume anchor again. Sadiq is second at 143 yards. Williams has 135 and a touchdown. Mitchell has 123 on nine catches. Cooper is on injured reserve after the Week 1 ankle injury, and Mitchell has missed Wednesday and Thursday this week with a finger injury. Taylor is still listed ahead of Sadiq on the depth chart, but the receiving production runs the other way: Taylor has two catches for minus-2 yards and has been dealing with a thumb injury, though he was a full participant Wednesday and Thursday.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Breece Hall carried the backfield: 243 attempts, a career-high 1,065 rushing yards, 1,415 yards from scrimmage, and five touchdowns on 279 touches. NFL+ has him at plus-0.5 RYOE per attempt, minus-34.2 rushing EPA, and a 40.3% success rate on those official carries. The play-by-play success rate on 243 rush plays was 40.7%; those are different denominators. Defenses crowded the box anyway. Sharp notes that 82% of first-quarter runs faced seven-plus box defenders, ninth-highest, even though only 51% of those runs came from heavy personnel.

Isaiah Davis had 43 carries, plus-1.3 RYOE, minus-5.0 rushing EPA, and a 34.9% NFL+ success rate. Braelon Allen missed the final 13 games with an MCL injury and is back. Khalil Herbert and Keilan Robinson are gone. Breece Hall had 24 red-zone rushes and nine red-zone targets (33 opportunities, two combined scores); Davis 11 opportunities and zero; Braelon Allen nine opportunities and one. Sharp ranks the running backs 14th, the highest unit on the roster. The line ranked 19th lost two interior starters.

The first month has not validated the running backs as the strongest unit. Breece Hall has 163 yards on 51 carries, 3.2 yards per attempt. Braelon Allen has 120 on 33, 3.6 per carry. Hall missed Chicago with a quad injury and has been a non-participant Wednesday and Thursday before Cleveland; Allen handled every Jets rushing attempt against Chicago and went 14-for-59. The 2026 story is not merely Breece Hall behind a rebuilt line. The run game has been inefficient, and Breece Hall's quad injury already forced Braelon Allen into a full RB1 workload against Chicago and could do so again if Breece Hall cannot return against Cleveland.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Breece Hall 5 (4 rush, 1 rec); Garrett Wilson 4 rec; Justin Fields 4 rush. Passing TDs: Justin Fields 7, Tyrod Taylor 5, Brady Cook 2, Breece Hall 1. Defense TDs: none in the nflverse season table. Special teams: Nick Folk 28/29 FG, 22/22 XP; Kene Nwangwu 1; Will McDonald IV 1; Isaiah Williams 2.

New York scored 17.6 points per game (29th) and 63.0 full-PPR fantasy points per game (32nd). Hall led the offense with five touchdowns (four rush, one receiving). Wilson had four receiving scores in seven games. Fields added four rushing touchdowns and seven passing scores; Taylor threw five, Cook two, Hall one. The defense scored none. Folk was 28-of-29 on field goals and 22-of-22 on extra points before leaving for Atlanta. Nwangwu, McDonald, and Isaiah Williams supplied the rest of the special-teams scoring. Last year's red-zone touchdown rate was 44.7%, 31st.

The 2026 scoring rate has not followed Smith's efficiency jump. The Jets have scored 76 points through four games — 19.0 per game, only modestly above last year's 17.6 — with five passing touchdowns and three rushing touchdowns. Sacks, an inefficient run game, and inconsistent possessions have kept cleaner quarterback play from translating into a much larger scoring jump.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The quarter splits are the 3-14 season in one table. New York scored 3.5 points in the first quarter (27th), 3.6 in the second (31st), and 2.5 in the third (30th). Full-PPR fantasy points followed: 9.6 and 12.8, both 32nd, then 14.4 (26th) after halftime. Sharp's first-half trail was 175 points, a figure his data back to 2000 had never seen. They led at halftime in two of 17 games and went 0-2 in those.

The fourth quarter is the spike: 8.1 points (fourth) and 26.3 full-PPR points per game (third). Sharp notes they posted the fourth-best success rate and 13th-best EPA per play in that frame, and he leaves open how much of it was garbage time. They still lost by 11.9 points per game, the worst margin in the league. Defensively the second quarter was the leak, 10.6 points and 31.9 fantasy points allowed, both 32nd on the fewest-allowed scale. That fourth-quarter improvement to 16.9 fantasy points allowed (third-fewest) coincided with a season in which New York was frequently trailing; the table alone does not establish how much game state contributed.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #16, Secondary #24.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Jamien Sherwood led the club with 154 tackles; Will McDonald IV 8.0 sacks, Jowon Briggs 4.0 sacks, Quincy Williams 3.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Jamien Sherwood: 8 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 8 PD; Malachi Moore: 3 TFL, 3 PD; Quincy Williams: 8 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 7 PD; Brandon Stephens: 4 TFL, 9 PD; Harrison Phillips: 5 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 2 PD; Isaiah Oliver: 3 PD; Will McDonald IV: 10 TFL, 8.0 sacks; Jowon Briggs: 8 TFL, 4.0 sacks.

Jamien Sherwood led the club with 154 tackles, eight tackles for loss, two sacks, and eight passes defensed. McDonald had eight sacks. The 2025 defense still finished 31st in sacks, last in pressure rate, and with zero interceptions. At the trade deadline they sold the core: Sauce Gardner to the Colts for two first-round picks and Adonai Mitchell, Quinnen Williams to the Cowboys for a 2027 first, a 2026 second, and Mazi Smith. Glenn later took over the defensive play-calling midseason and still finished with four takeaways.

The 2026 front seven, ranked 16th, is a rebuilt roster. Quincy Williams (83 tackles, 3.5 sacks) signed with the Browns. Jermaine Johnson was dealt for Sweat. Davis, a former Jet, signed to replace Quincy Williams. Onyemata and Sweat are the interior run-defense adds, and Ossai and Enagbare join McDonald and Bailey on the edge. Onyemata is on injured reserve, and Braiden McGregor went on injured reserve October 6. The secondary, ranked 24th, recorded zero interceptions with Brandon Stephens leading at nine passes defensed and Malachi Moore at 101 tackles. Fitzpatrick arrived via trade as the ball hawk. Belton and Wright signed in free agency. Azareye'h Thomas played 311 snaps as a rookie, and Ponds is the second-round bet. Those ranks predate how Glenn's defense actually performs with this personnel.

The first month has been wildly uneven. Green Bay managed only 199 total yards and went 1-of-9 on third down. Two weeks later Chicago piled up 492 yards, 34 first downs, and 232 rushing yards, although New York held the Bears to 2-of-7 in the red zone. Heading into Cleveland, Jarvis Brownlee Jr. improved to limited, Enagbare remains limited, and Kiko Mauigoa has been a non-participant Wednesday and Thursday. The rebuilt defense has already created takeaways. It has not yet become a consistent unit.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Cover 1 allowed 2.43 fantasy points per play, 30th in the league, on 160 snaps. Cover 3 was 2.26, also 30th, on 129 snaps. Cover 1 and Cover 3 were the expensive single-high looks. Cover 4 was also costly on 41 snaps at 2.30 (24th). Two-man was the stingiest look at 1.33 points per play (ninth) in 42 snaps; Cover 2 was 1.71 (20th) on 151 snaps.

A more effective rush could reduce the time quarterbacks have to attack those vulnerable single-high shells. McDonald is back; Bailey, Ossai, and Enagbare are the new edge pieces; Sweat is the interior trade. The first-month sack count has already moved. It does not yet prove Cover 1 and Cover 3 will stop leaking.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Nick Folk: 28/29 FG, 22/22 PAT.

Austin McNamara led with 71 punts (32 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Isaiah Williams: 28 returns for 837 yards.

Punt returner Isaiah Williams: 28 returns for 396 yards.

Special teams tackler Mykal Walker: 10 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Folk was the 2025 kicker, 28-of-29 on field goals (96.6%) with a long of 58 and seven makes from 50-plus, plus 22-of-22 extra points. He signed with the Falcons. Austin McNamara punted 71 times, 32 inside the 20, none blocked. Isaiah Williams returned 28 kickoffs for 837 yards and 28 punts for 396, with the two punt-return touchdowns already counted in the return table. Mykal Walker led coverage with 10 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Jason Sanders signed to the 53-man roster September 29 and is 7-of-8 on field goals, including 2-of-3 from 50-plus. McNamara remains the punter with 18 punts, 48.7 gross, and six inside the 20. Williams is still handling both return phases.

Penalty Analysis

The Sharp Football Preview penalty analysis gives the Jets a D for Penalties & Discipline. Pre-snap the defense was clean: five defensive pre-snap flags, tied for sixth-fewest. Post-snap discipline was problematic. New York finished in the bottom five in net penalty average and ranked third in declined penalties per game. The defense tied for third-most third-down penalties per game and tied Detroit for the most automatic first downs given away by penalty on third down.

They also drew the fewest opponent penalties per quarter in the fourth, and only 40% of flags against their opponents came in the second half, the lowest share in the league. Glenn's first season was 29th in penalty margin. The 2026 job is keeping the pre-snap cleanliness and cutting the third-down and post-snap flags, and the first month has already shown why that grade still matters. New York had 13 accepted penalties for 156 yards in the Green Bay loss. Against Chicago it committed 12 penalties, and three apparent interceptions were erased by flags.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 60 penalties for 417 yards (#16). Most common: False Start (25), Offensive Holding (12), Delay of Game (5). Most flags in Shotgun (15), Under Center (9). Most flagged players: John Simpson (11), Armand Membou (8), Joe Tippmann (7).

Defense: 50 penalties for 492 yards (#21), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (10), Defensive Holding (9), Unnecessary Roughness (3). Most flags on Cover 1 (12), Cover 3 (6), Cover 2 (5). Most flagged players: Jarvis Brownlee Jr. (7), Qwan'tez Stiggers (4), Brandon Stephens (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

False starts (25) led the offense, then offensive holding (12), delay of game (5), unnecessary roughness (4), and illegal shift (3). Special teams added four offensive holding flags on punt returns. On defense the flags were pass interference (10), defensive holding (9), unnecessary roughness (3), and roughing the passer (3).

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Garrett Wilson WR13, Breece Hall RB15.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Justin Fields (14.8 FPavg), Garrett Wilson (14.2 FPavg), Breece Hall (13.0 FPavg), Tyrod Taylor (9.9 FPavg), Adonai Mitchell (8.2 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Wilson led the offense's full-PPR scoring against Cover 1 (21 points), Cover 4 (24), and Cover 0 (20, tied with Metchie). Cover 0 was the highest per-play output at 4.12 across 31 snaps. Cover 3 was the volume shell, 204 plays and 300 total fantasy points, with Taylor leading at 34 and Breece Hall at 31. Mitchell led Cover 2 at 22 points. Wilson, Taylor, Breece Hall, and Mitchell are the 2025 scoring names that still matter for 2026 considerations.

Skill adds: Geno Smith (QB) (via trade).

Skill losses: Justin Fields (QB) to the Chiefs, Josh Reynolds (WR), Tyrod Taylor (QB) to the Packers, John Metchie III (WR) to the Panthers, Stone Smartt (TE) to the Eagles, Tyler Johnson (WR) to the Cowboys, Hendon Hooker (QB) to the Titans, Khalil Herbert (RB), and Keilan Robinson (RB).

Skill draft picks: Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Rd 1, Oregon), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Rd 1, Indiana), and Cade Klubnik (QB, Rd 4, Clemson).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Garrett Wilson, seven Jets games: 15.3 DKavg, 9.0 floor, 24.5 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $6,200, 2.45 FP/$. He led the club at 14.2 full-PPR FPavg with a 26.3% target share and 1.81 DK points per target. The 9.0 floor is the Cash case; the 24.5 ceiling and three hits are the GPP shape. That is a 2025 archetype, not a 2026 weekly recommendation. He has 24 catches for 270 yards and two touchdowns through four games.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Breece Hall, 16 games: 13.8 DKavg, 7.2 floor, 23.9 ceiling, five Slate Hits, $6,100, 2.27 FP/$. The 243-carry workload and 13.0 FPavg are the Cash case. The 23.9 ceiling and five hits are the GPP shape.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Mason Taylor, 13 games: 6.9 DKavg, 3.0 floor, 14.4 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, $3,200, 2.20 FP/$. Cheap salary and a limited historical ceiling. That is a 2025 archetype, not an endorsement of his current two-catch, minus-2-yard start.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Adonai Mitchell, eight Jets games: 8.6 DKavg, 3.4 floor, 17.4 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $4,400, 2.15 FP/$. The floor is thin; the 17.4 ceiling and one hit are the tournament shape. He has nine catches for 123 yards through four games when healthy.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Geno Smith's last club was Las Vegas. In 15 DraftKings games he averaged 13.5 points with a 9.0 floor, a 26.1 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, and a $4,700 median salary (2.78 FP/$). NFL+ from those games is minus-0.17 EPA per dropback and plus-1.6% CPOE. That is a prior-club 2025 archetype, not a 2026 weekly recommendation.

Inside Scoop

The Jets finished 3-14 last season, and Warren Sharp's preseason forecast is 5.5 wins and third place in the AFC East. That number was a bet that a healthier Garrett Wilson and a rebuilt defensive core could turn a historically empty takeaway year into something closer to functional defense, not that Geno Smith would save the franchise after a sixth-round swap with Las Vegas. Minkah Fitzpatrick, T'Vondre Sweat, David Bailey, and Demario Davis are the pieces that made the four-takeaway, 26-sack season look incomplete rather than permanent.

The first month has already split that thesis. Smith has been far more efficient than his 2025 Raiders profile suggested, Wilson is healthy and producing, and Kenyon Sadiq has emerged immediately. New York still lost three straight after the 23-10 opener. The run game has not improved, the rebuilt defense has created takeaways without becoming consistent, and injuries are already thinning Breece Hall, Parham, Mitchell, and the defensive front. One competent quarterback stretch does not settle Glenn's year or the 2027 quarterback question. It does show that the preseason Under case on Smith's efficiency has looked too pessimistic through four games, while the complementary problems have not.

Sharp's preseason betting snapshot installed them as favorites in four games and underdogs in 13, with a 4.9-point average line that was 2.9 at home and 6.6 on the road. New York went 1-15-1 against the spread alongside its 3-14 straight-up record, while 11 of 17 games finished over the total.

The 2025 DFS profiles tell a similarly split story: Wilson and Breece Hall showed floor-plus-ceiling GPP/Cash shapes, Taylor is a cheap limited-ceiling Cash card, Mitchell is a thinner-floor GPP card, and Smith's Las Vegas games were a 9.0-floor, 26.1-ceiling GPP profile with zero Slate Hits. Those are historical archetypes rather than weekly 2026 plays.

Wilson's first month has answered the production question when healthy; the larger durability question still has a long season to play out. The season question is whether competent quarterback play can survive the sacks, the penalties, and a run game that has already needed Braelon Allen to replace Breece Hall.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.