NFL 2026 PREVIEW: ARIZONA CARDINALS

The Arizona Cardinals enter the 2026 campaign looking to rebound from a dismal 3-14 finish in 2025. Sharp’s forecast projects just 4.5 wins for the season, placing them fourth in their division. The path ahead offers little relief, as the team faces the league’s most difficult Strength of Schedule, ranking 32nd where 1 is easiest and 32 is hardest. Roster construction presents a stark contrast in unit quality. Sharp identifies the running backs as the team’s strongest positional group, ranking ninth overall. Conversely, the quarterback room is viewed as the weakest link in the entire league, sitting at rank 32. This disparity between a solid ground game and struggling pass protection defines the current outlook for Arizona.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Arizona Cardinals added Isaac Seumalo (LG) at $10.5M, Tyler Allgeier (RB) at $6.09M, Gardner Minshew (QB) at $5.79M, Roy Lopez (IDL) at $5.29M, and Kendrick Bourne (WR) at $5M.

Key departures: Kyler Murray (QB) to the Vikings, Jonah Williams (RT), Jalen Thompson (S) to the Cowboys, Justin Jones (IDL), Bilal Nichols (IDL), and Dalvin Tomlinson (IDL) to the Chargers.

The Cardinals enter 2026 with a completely retooled offensive leadership group, installing Mike LaFleur as head coach and Nathaniel Hackett as offensive coordinator for their first seasons in Arizona. Sharp ranks this new coaching duo poorly, slotting LaFleur at 31st out of 32 teams, which raises immediate concerns for an offense that already struggled with quarterback play. The unit ranked 32nd in Sharp’s quarterback ratings and 26th on the offensive line, issues compounded by the departure of right tackle Jonah Williams. To stabilize the front, the team signed left guard Isaac Seumalo to a $10.5 million deal, but the loss of Williams creates a significant void on the right side. At quarterback, Gardner Minshew arrives via free agency on a $5.79 million contract to compete for snaps, adding depth to a position where Jacoby Brissett led the team with 12 giveaways in 2025. The receiving corps retains its core talent, ranking 12th in Sharp’s unit ratings, and adds veteran Kendrick Bourne for $5 million to support targets like Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr.

On defense, coordinator Nick Rallis returns for his third season but faces a depleted roster after losing three key interior linemen: Justin Jones, Bilal Nichols, and Dalvin Tomlinson, who departed for the Chargers. The front seven already ranked 29th in Sharp’s assessments, and these exits weaken a unit that relied heavily on Josh Sweat’s 12 sacks and Calais Campbell’s six sacks in 2025. Roy Lopez joins the defensive line on a $5.29 million contract to help fill the gap, while the secondary loses starter Jalen Thompson to the Cowboys. The backfield sees an upgrade in rushing options with the addition of Tyler Allgeier on a $6.09 million deal, bolstering a running back unit that Sharp ranks ninth overall. Despite these moves, the defense allowed 28.7 points per game in 2025, and the combination of a new head coach, significant defensive turnover, and a difficult schedule suggests continued growing pains for bettors and fantasy managers alike.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

The Cardinals addressed their most glaring structural weakness by selecting Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the third overall pick, a bold move designed to inject explosiveness into an offense that managed only eight rushing plays of 20 or more yards in 2025. While Love commands a significant rookie contract, the financial burden is mitigated by the team’s cost-controlled quarterback situation, allowing Arizona to pair its new feature back with established weapons like Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. This selection directly targets a ground game that ranked 28th in explosive run rate, offering a dynamic complement to the passing attack even if immediate statistical dominance is tempered by the team’s overall roster limitations.

Arizona continued to fortify its offensive infrastructure in the middle rounds, drafting Texas A&M guard Chase Bisontis in the second round and Miami quarterback Carson Beck in the third. Bisontis brings proven run-blocking ability, having allowed 2.1 yards before contact per attempt when targeted in college, though he will likely compete for the right guard spot rather than displacing new free-agent signee Isaac Seumalo on the left side. The addition of Beck provides developmental depth at a position where Sharp ranks the unit last in the league, giving the franchise a potential long-term option while they evaluate whether to commit to a high draft pick in 2027.

Sharp Forecasts Arizona Cardinals with 4.5 Wins

Over Case: The primary argument for exceeding the 4.5-win threshold hinges on a massive regression in health and schedule difficulty after a historically brutal 2025 campaign. Arizona ranked last in the league for total player health, with key contributors like Kyler Murray, Paris Johnson Jr., and Marvin Harrison Jr. each missing five games, which severely depressed their floor. With Murray back and the roster stabilized, the offense has the potential to outperform its previous output, especially given that Jacoby Brissett managed to produce fantasy-friendly numbers despite limited efficiency. Furthermore, the Cardinals are no longer facing the gauntlet of the 2025 slate, where they endured the second-hardest schedule in the NFL against a dominant NFC West that sent the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. While the 2026 strength of schedule remains the toughest in the league at rank 32, the sheer bad luck of injuries from the prior year suggests that a return to baseline health alone could push this team past four victories.

Under Case: Sharp’s assessment remains skeptical due to catastrophic deficiencies at quarterback and a defense that lacks the personnel to compete even with better health. The unit ranks as the weakest quarterback group in the league at number 32, and neither the free agency addition of Gardner Minshew nor the third-round selection of Carson Beck projects to deliver average starter play. On the other side of the ball, the defense allowed 28.7 points per game (ranked 29th) and surrendered yards at a high clip, ranking 22nd in EPA per play allowed on early downs. Although the team retained defensive coordinator Nick Rallis, the shift to offensive-minded head coach Mike LaFleur does not immediately address the structural issues that led to a 3-14 record. With the running back corps ranking ninth in strength but the passing attack stifled by poor protection and turnover issues—Brissett threw 10 interceptions in just 13 games—the ceiling for this roster appears capped well below the median win total.

Schedule Timing & Rest

The Arizona Cardinals enter the 2026 season with a distinct scheduling advantage, ranking first in the NFL for net rest edge, preparation time, and overall rest. This favorable timing profile suggests the team will frequently enjoy more recovery days than their opponents, which could help mitigate the physical toll on a roster that struggled with depth and performance in 2025. While they face a difficult strength of schedule ranked 32nd, the extra preparation time may allow the coaching staff to better scheme against tough opponents, particularly given the unit's historical weaknesses at quarterback and along the offensive line. The team’s ability to capitalize on this rest disparity will be crucial as they attempt to improve upon a 3-14 record from the prior season.

Specific situational spots further highlight this timing benefit, as the Cardinals rank fourth in games off road Sunday or Monday night football slots and fifth in negated bye impact, indicating fewer disruptive travel and scheduling quirks. They also hold a middle-of-the-pack rank of 14th for short-week road games, meaning they are not overly burdened by quick turnarounds away from home. With a net rest edge of +1 day across the season and eight labeled weeks where they hold a rest advantage, including a massive +7 day edge in Week 15 against the New York Jets, the team is positioned to be fresher in key late-season matchups. These structural advantages provide a subtle but meaningful boost for betting considerations, especially when evaluating game totals and player performance in the second half of the year.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways 19 (#17):* 11 interceptions thrown (#13) and 9 fumbles lost (#25). Takeaways 18 (#19):* 10 interceptions (#18) and 9 fumbles recovered (#6).

Giveaway leaders:* Jacoby Brissett (12), Kyler Murray (4), Coby Bryant (1). Takeaway leaders:* Denzel Burke (3), Zaven Collins (2), Baron Browning (2)

The Cardinals entered 2026 with a turnover profile that was statistically average but contextually damaging, finishing with a net differential of minus-one. The offense committed 19 giveaways, ranking 17th in the league, driven largely by 11 interceptions thrown and nine fumbles lost. Jacoby Brissett accounted for the majority of the aerial mistakes with 12 giveaways, while Coby Bryant added one. On the defensive side, Arizona generated 18 takeaways, placing them 19th overall. This unit was particularly effective at securing loose balls, recovering nine fumbles to rank sixth in the NFL, while Denzel Burke led the secondary with three interceptions. Zaven Collins added two takeaways to help offset the offensive errors, though the defense only managed 10 total interceptions.

For bettors and fantasy managers, this near-even turnover margin suggests that field position battles will remain tight rather than being decided by sudden swings in possession. The offense’s tendency to lose fumbles (25th rank) indicates potential vulnerability in ball security among running backs and receivers, which could limit high-ceiling fantasy weeks if possessions end prematurely. Conversely, the defense’s ability to recover fumbles provides a slight floor for defensive scoring formats, even if their interception total was merely middle-of-the-pack. With a projected win total of just 4.5 games and the hardest schedule in the league, Arizona cannot afford many self-inflicted wounds, making the reduction of Brissett’s giveaways a critical factor in any potential upset wins.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Jacoby Brissett 288 yards; Kyler Murray 111 yards.

Sack leaders (defense): Josh Sweat (12), Calais Campbell (6), Baron Browning (2), Walter Nolen (2)

The Cardinals' offensive line struggled significantly in pass protection, surrendering 59 sacks to rank 28th in the league. This pressure resulted in substantial lost yardage for the quarterbacks, with Jacoby Brissett absorbing 288 yards in losses on sacks and Kyler Murray losing another 111 yards. The unit was particularly vulnerable from the shotgun formation, where they allowed 46 sacks, compared to just 11 when lined up under center. These protection failures contributed to a bottom-tier offensive performance, as the team ranked 26th in Sharp’s offensive line assessments.

On the defensive side of the ball, Arizona generated only 30 sacks, which also placed them 28th in the NFL. Josh Sweat led the team with 12 sacks, while veteran Calais Campbell contributed 6.0 before leaving in free agency. Baron Browning and Walter Nolen each contributed two sacks to the total. The defense found some success using specific coverage schemes, ranking second in the league with six sacks made while in Cover 6, and they managed 11 sacks in Cover 3. However, their standard four-man rush produced only 21 sacks, indicating a need for more creative pressure packages or better individual win rates up front.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 0 (#13). No punt or kickoff return touchdowns.

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 0 (#1). No punt or kickoff return touchdowns allowed.

Punt returns* 19 for 217 yards; kickoff returns* 79 for 1979 yards.

The Arizona Cardinals special teams unit displayed remarkable discipline in the return game during the 2025 season, as they did not surrender a single punt or kickoff return touchdown to opponents. This flawless defensive record in the return phase ranked first in the league, providing a rare bright spot for a defense that otherwise struggled significantly against the pass and run. While the unit successfully prevented opponents from scoring via returns, the Cardinals' own returners were unable to find the end zone either, finishing with zero touchdowns on punts or kickoffs. This lack of explosive scoring plays on special teams placed them in the middle of the pack at rank 13, reflecting a unit that prioritized stability over high-risk, high-reward opportunities.

Despite the absence of return scores, the Cardinals generated substantial yardage through their primary returners. Greg Dortch shouldered the bulk of the responsibility, handling 31 kickoff returns for 811 yards and 16 punt returns for 185 yards. The team collectively recorded 79 kickoff returns for 1,979 yards and 19 punt returns for 217 yards. With key contributors like Dortch now listed among the confirmed departures for 2026, the Cardinals will need to identify new personnel to maintain this volume of production while hoping to convert some of those yardage gains into actual points in the upcoming campaign.

Penalties

Offense:* 67 penalties for 521 yards (#23). Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (18), Delay of Game (4). Most flags in Shotgun (19), Under Center (15), Pistol (3). Most flagged players:* Kelvin Beachum (7), Paris Johnson Jr. (6), Isaiah Adams (5).

Defense:* 48 penalties for 321 yards (#18). Most common: Defensive Holding (9), Defensive Pass Interference (7), Defensive Offside (5). Most flags in Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (7), Cover 0 (3). Most flagged players:* Will Johnson (6), Denzel Burke (5), Max Melton (4).

The Arizona Cardinals offense struggled with discipline in 2025, committing 67 penalties that cost the team 521 yards and ranked 23rd in the league. Offensive holding was the primary culprit, accounting for 25 flags, while false starts added another 18 infractions to the total. These mistakes occurred most frequently when the unit operated out of shotgun formation, which drew 19 penalties, compared to 15 flags while under center. The burden of these errors fell heavily on the offensive line, as Kelvin Beachum led all players with seven flags, followed closely by Paris Johnson Jr. with six and Isaiah Adams with five.

On the other side of the ball, the defense performed with better restraint, ranking 18th by accepting only 48 penalties for 321 yards. Defensive holding was the most common infraction with nine calls, while defensive pass interference and defensive offside contributed seven and five flags respectively. The secondary drew the most attention from officials when playing Cover 1, resulting in 15 penalties, whereas Cover 3 and Cover 0 schemes accounted for seven and three flags. Will Johnson was the most penalized defender with six flags, while Denzel Burke and Max Melton were also frequently flagged with five and four penalties respectively.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs:* 818 plays, 42.7% success, 0.00 EPA/play (#22). Most efficient on early downs:* Marvin Harrison Jr. (53 plays, 0.37 EPA/play), Trey McBride (132 plays, 0.34 EPA/play).

Red Zone:* 169 plays, 38.5% success, -0.09 EPA/play (#26). Most efficient in the red zone:* Greg Dortch (10 plays, 0.60 EPA/play), Marvin Harrison Jr. (11 plays, 0.51 EPA/play).

The Arizona Cardinals struggled to generate positive expected points on early downs, ranking 22nd in the league with a neutral 0.00 EPA per play across 818 snaps. While the unit achieved a 42.7% success rate, individual efficiency varied significantly among key targets. Marvin Harrison Jr. led the way with a robust 0.37 EPA per play over 53 targets, while tight end Trey McBride provided consistent value with a 0.34 EPA per play across a team-high 132 early-down opportunities.

Red zone execution proved even more difficult for the offense, which posted a -0.09 EPA per play and a 38.5% success rate on 169 attempts, landing at 26th in the NFL. Despite the overall inefficiency, specific players found success in tight spaces. Greg Dortch was the most efficient option inside the 20-yard line, generating 0.60 EPA per play on 10 touches, while Marvin Harrison Jr. also contributed positively with a 0.51 EPA per play on 11 red zone plays.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

Pass plays:* 710 (#1). Pass rate: 66.1% (#1). Yards per pass play: 5.57 (#26). Pass-play success:* 44.4% (#16).

Rush plays:* 364 (#31). Rush rate: 33.9% (#32). Yards per rush: 4.36 (#20). Rush-play success:* 40.4% (#26).

On neutral downs,* pass rate over expected (PROE*) was 7.2 (#1); they passed 61.2% of those snaps.

On pass attempts: Jacoby Brissett (44.7% success on 530 attempts), Kyler Murray (43.5% success on 177 attempts).

On rushes: Michael Carter (42.4% success on 92 rushes), Bam Knight (37.3% success on 83 rushes), Emari Demercado (31.8% success on 44 rushes).

The Arizona Cardinals operated as the league’s most pass-heavy offense in 2025, throwing the ball on 66.1% of their plays to lead the NFL in pass rate. This aerial focus resulted in 710 pass attempts, which was the highest volume in the league, though the unit averaged just 5.57 yards per pass play. On neutral downs, the team’s commitment to the air was even more pronounced, as they posted a pass rate over expected (PROE) of 7.2, the best mark in the NFL. They chose to pass on 61.2% of those neutral situations, consistently prioritizing the throw over the run regardless of the down and distance.

While the passing game drove the volume, the ground attack was used sparingly, accounting for only 33.9% of offensive snaps, which ranked last in the league. The Cardinals rushed for 4.36 yards per carry, a middle-of-the-pack efficiency figure, but their rush-play success rate of 40.4% struggled near the bottom of the standings. Among individual contributors, Jacoby Brissett led the passing success metrics with a 44.7% success rate on his 530 attempts, slightly edging out Kyler Murray’s 43.5% mark on 177 attempts. On the ground, Michael Carter was the most effective runner with a 42.4% success rate on 92 rushes, followed by Bam Knight at 37.3% on 83 carries and Emari Demercado at 31.8% on 44 carries.

Sharp's pass/rush map: QB unit #32, OL #26.**

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Offense: 57 explosives (#16) for 1658 yards (#21) — 49 pass, 8 rush.

Defense allowed: 67 explosives (#25) for 1903 yards (#21) — 52 pass, 15 rush.

Top explosive producers: Michael Wilson (14), Trey McBride (12), Marvin Harrison Jr. (9).

Opponents who burned coverage: Puka Nacua (5), Kenneth Walker III (4), Calvin Ridley (3).

Coverages beaten most often: Cover 3 (21), Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (8).

Coverages that sprung leaks: Cover 3 (14), Cover 1 (11), Cover 4 (10).

The Arizona Cardinals offense generated 57 explosive plays of 20 or more yards in 2025, ranking 16th in the league, with the vast majority coming through the air. Michael Wilson led the team with 14 such receptions for 425 yards, followed closely by tight end Trey McBride with 12 and wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. with nine. While the rushing attack contributed only eight explosive runs, the passing game accounted for 49 big gains totaling 1,349 yards. This aerial production helped the unit accumulate 1,658 total explosive yards, placing them 21st in the NFL despite a middle-of-the-pack frequency in creating these high-value moments.

Defensively, the Cardinals struggled to contain big plays, allowing 67 explosive gains which ranked 25th worst in the league. Opponents burned Arizona’s secondary most frequently against Cover 3 schemes, which surrendered 21 explosive plays for 573 yards, while Cover 1 and Cover 4 also leaked significantly for 11 and 10 big plays respectively. Notable opponents who exploited these coverage weaknesses included Puka Nacua, who recorded five explosive catches, and Kenneth Walker III, who added four. The defense allowed 1,903 total yards on these explosive plays, highlighting a persistent vulnerability in preventing opponents from breaking off substantial gains.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

The Cardinals operated primarily out of the 11 personnel package, utilizing one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers on 540 plays that generated 1.45 fantasy points per play in full PPR scoring. This grouping featured Michael Carter, Trey McBride, Michael Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Greg Dortch as the most frequent participants. The team also relied heavily on the 12 personnel set with one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers for 390 snaps, which produced a lower efficiency rate of 1.29 fantasy points per play with Michael Carter, Trey McBride, Elijah Higgins, Michael Wilson, and Marvin Harrison Jr. taking the field. A smaller sample of 115 plays came from the 13 personnel package featuring three tight ends, including Josiah Deguara, which surprisingly yielded the highest efficiency at 1.62 fantasy points per play despite its limited usage.

In terms of formation, the offense lived in shotgun alignment for 70.0% of their snaps, totaling 751 plays with an average of 1.53 fantasy points per play. Under center formations accounted for 27.5% of the workload across 295 plays but were significantly less productive, generating only 1.09 fantasy points per play. The pistol formation saw minimal action with just 27 plays and a low return of 0.80 fantasy points per play. Run-pass options were utilized on 27 snaps, representing 2.5% of the offensive volume, and these plays resulted in the lowest efficiency of any category at 0.57 fantasy points per play.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank* #30; play-action rank* #3 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The Cardinals enter 2026 with the league’s weakest quarterback unit, a ranking that reflects both Kyler Murray and the reliance on short-term veterans Jacoby Brissett and Gardner Minshew. Brissett, who started 12 games in 2025 during a 3-14 stretch for Arizona, carries a career record of 20-45 as a starter, while Minshew holds a 17-30 mark in his starts. Both are under contract for only the 2026 season, creating immediate pressure on third-round pick Carson Beck to potentially seize the role. The offensive line struggled to protect its passers, surrendering the second-most sacks in the league over the final nine games when Brissett was under center, contributing to a unit ranked 26th overall. This instability at the most important position caps the ceiling for an offense that already ranked 23rd in scoring and 26th in yards per pass play during the previous campaign.

Despite the quarterback turmoil, the passing game found reliable production from Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, who both delivered career-best performances. McBride finished second in the NFL with 126 receptions and added 11 touchdowns, establishing himself as a primary safety valve regardless of who is throwing the ball. Wilson emerged as a potent secondary option, tying for second among wide receivers in receptions over the final eight games of the season. However, questions remain about how Wilson’s role will evolve alongside Marvin Harrison Jr., who dealt with injuries and mixed results in his rookie year. With Harrison and Wilson running routes together frequently last season, the offense must determine if it can effectively distribute targets between its two top wideouts while integrating new additions like Kendrick Bourne and Devin Duvernay into a system that ranked last in rush rate and 32nd in early-down efficiency.

Top two QBs. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Cardinals' receiving corps at #12, a unit that provided the primary offensive bright spots during a 3-14 campaign. Trey McBride delivered a career year, finishing second in the league with 126 receptions for 1,239 yards and tying for second with 11 touchdowns. His efficiency was elite, posting 0.34 EPA per play on early downs and leading the team with 169 targets. Michael Wilson also surged over the final eight games, ranking second among wideouts in receiving yards (775) and tied for second in receptions (56) during that stretch. Wilson generated 14 explosive plays, the most on the team, and maintained strong production even when sharing the field with Marvin Harrison Jr., who was limited to 12 games by injury. Harrison still managed nine explosive plays and showed high efficiency in the red zone with 0.51 EPA per play, though his overall volume was suppressed by health issues.

The 2026 outlook features significant turnover at the wide receiver and tight end positions. The team lost Zay Jones, Greg Dortch, Pharaoh Brown, Josiah Deguara, Andre Baccellia, and Travis Vokolek, while adding Kendrick Bourne and Devin Duvernay to the mix. With Dortch and Jones gone, the slot and depth roles are open, potentially creating opportunities for drafted receiver Reggie Virgil and holdover Elijah Higgins, who saw 28 targets last season. In the red zone, McBride remains the primary safety valve, but the departure of key contributors like Dortch, who posted a massive 0.60 EPA per play in those situations, leaves a void in efficiency. The addition of Bourne provides a veteran presence, but the group must prove it can maintain its #12 unit ranking without the previous year's breakout volume from Wilson and the steady hand of McBride facing increased defensive attention.

Quarterback instability looms over the passing attack, as Jacoby Brissett and new addition Gardner Minshew are both on one-year deals, with third-round pick Carson Beck waiting in the wings. Brissett struggled with protection, absorbing 30 sacks over the final nine games, which likely impacted the rhythm of the receiving corps. Despite the quarterback carousel, the receivers demonstrated they could produce when targeted, with McBride and Wilson combining for 26 explosive plays. The success of this unit in 2026 will depend less on scheme and more on whether the new quarterback tandem can protect the ball and deliver accurate throws to a reshuffled group that has lost several reliable chain-movers from the 2025 roster.

Overall Targets

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Cardinals' running back unit ninth overall, a standing that contrasts sharply with the 2025 reality of a depleted backfield where no player reached 100 carries. Michael Carter led the group with 92 rushes and a 42.4% success rate, while Bam Knight contributed 82 attempts with a 37.3% success rate. The departure of Emari Demercado and Michael Carter leaves significant volume vacated, but the team has addressed this by adding Tyler Allgeier via free agency or trade. With rookie Jeremiyah Love selected third overall in the draft, Arizona now possesses high-upside talent to anchor the ground game, moving past the committee approach that defined their league-worst 33.9% rush rate last season.

The offensive line, ranked 26th by Sharp, remains a critical constraint after surrendering 59 sacks and allowing heavy pressure up the middle. The addition of guard Chase Bisontis with the 34th pick aims to stabilize the interior, which was plagued by penalties from players like Kelvin Beachum and Paris Johnson Jr. In the red zone, the rushing attack showed flashes of efficiency despite broader struggles; Bam Knight was a primary weapon with five touchdowns on 17 red-zone rushes, while James Conner scored twice in his limited three-game sample. These short-yardage specialists will need better protection from the revamped line to convert opportunities that previously stalled due to negative EPA plays.

Looking toward 2026, the rushing outlook hinges on the integration of Allgeier and Love into a more balanced offensive scheme. The 2025 tape revealed a team that passed on 66.1% of plays, often to the detriment of their ground game's rhythm and success. By committing to a healthier rotation and leveraging the draft capital spent on Love, Arizona can hope to improve upon its 20th-ranked yards per rush average. The combination of new personnel and a potentially more cohesive offensive line offers a path to reclaiming competitiveness in the running game, provided the quarterback situation does not continue to force excessive pass-heavy scripts.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Arizona Cardinals finished the 2025 season with a stark disconnect between their real-world scoring output and their fantasy football production. In terms of actual points per game (PPG), the offense struggled significantly, averaging just 20.9 points to rank 23rd in the league, while the defense surrendered 28.7 points per game, placing them 29th overall. This on-field inefficiency contributed to a dismal 3-14 record. However, when viewing performance through the lens of full PPR fantasy points per game (FP/G), the picture changes dramatically for the skill position players. The Cardinals ranked 8th in the NFL with 87.7 FP/G scored, indicating that individual receivers and tight ends accumulated substantial volume and yardage despite the team’s inability to convert those efforts into wins or high scoreboard totals.

This disparity highlights a roster that generated fantasy value even while failing to protect the ball or stop opponents. While the offense ranked 8th in fantasy points scored, the defense allowed 91.4 FP/G, ranking 28th in the league. The unit gave up significant yardage and big plays, allowing 67 explosive plays of 20 or more yards. On the offensive side, the high fantasy ranking was driven by heavy target shares for players like Trey McBride and Michael Wilson, who thrived in a pass-heavy system that ranked first in pass rate. Ultimately, the team’s 20.9 real points per game failed to keep pace with the 28.7 points they allowed, resulting in one of the worst records in the NFL despite the individual statistical success of their pass catchers.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Arizona Cardinals showed their most potent scoring output in the second quarter, averaging 6.3 points per game, though this total ranked just 24th in the league. Their third-quarter scoring was slightly lower at 4.9 points per game but performed better relative to the field, landing at 15th in the NFL. From a fantasy perspective, the offense generated significant value late in games, ranking sixth in full PPR points per game during both the third and fourth quarters with averages of 21.8 and 25.7 respectively. This suggests that while actual point totals remained modest, the volume of offensive plays and individual statistical production increased as games progressed into the second half.

Defensively, the Cardinals struggled to contain opponents in every period, consistently ranking in the bottom tier for points allowed. They surrendered the most real points in the second quarter at 8.8 per game, which ranked 27th worst in the league, and gave up 8.4 points in the fourth quarter, ranking 28th. The fantasy defense also had its toughest stretches in the final two periods, allowing 21.9 full PPR points per game in the third quarter (28th rank) and 26.0 in the fourth quarter (24th rank). Even in the first quarter, where they allowed only 5.9 points, the unit still ranked 28th in scoring defense, highlighting a persistent inability to start games strongly against opposing offenses.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #29, Secondary #28.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles = nflverse solo + with-assist + assists (REG season; aligns with official combined). May still include production with a prior team when recent_team is this club.

Budda Baker led the club with 120 tackles; Josh Sweat 12.0 sacks, Calais Campbell 6.5 sacks, Baron Browning 2.0 sacks.

Sharp’s assessment places the Cardinals’ defensive front seventh from the bottom at rank 29 and the secondary near the cellar at graded 28, reflecting a unit that struggled to contain opponents. The defense allowed 28.7 points per game, which ranked 29th in the league, and surrendered 67 explosive plays for 1,903 yards. While Josh Sweat led the team with 12.0 sacks, the pass rush overall generated only 30 sacks, ranking 32nd. In the secondary, Denzel Burke was a bright spot with three interceptions and 10 passes defended, but the group as a whole gave up significant yardage through Cover 3 and Cover 1 schemes. Budda Baker anchored the tackle count with 120 stops, followed closely by Akeem Davis-Gaither with 117, yet the lack of consistent pressure and coverage lapses kept the defense among the league’s least effective units.

The roster has undergone significant changes aimed at shoring up these weaknesses, though the losses are substantial. The team parted ways with key veterans including Calais Campbell, Jalen Thompson, Justin Jones, Bilal Nichols, and Dalvin Tomlinson, creating major holes in both the interior defensive line and the safety rotation. To counter these departures, Arizona added interior linemen Roy Lopez and Andrew Billings, as well as safety Andrew Wingard, while also drafting Kaleb Proctor and Karson Sharar to add depth. However, replacing the production of Campbell and Thompson will be difficult, especially given that the new additions must integrate quickly into a system that ranked 28th in fantasy points allowed per game. The success of this revamped defensive front will depend heavily on whether the new acquisitions can provide the immediate stability that the departing veterans previously supplied.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams

Chad Ryland: 25/33 FG, 36/36 PAT.

Matt Haack led with 25 punts (10 inside the 20); also punted: Blake Gillikin 22, Pat O'Donnell 12.

Kickoff returner Greg Dortch: 31 returns for 811 yards.

Punt returner Greg Dortch: 16 returns for 185 yards.

Special teams tackler Akeem Davis-Gaither: 18 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs (solo + with-assist + assists).

Chad Ryland handled the bulk of the placekicking duties, converting 25 of his 33 field goal attempts while remaining perfect on 36 extra points. His longest make traveled 57 yards, and he connected on six tries from beyond the 50-yard line. The punting workload was distributed among three players, with Matt Haack leading the group by handling 25 kicks and placing 10 of them inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Blake Gillikin contributed 22 punts, and Pat O’Donnell added 12 more to the rotation, creating a shared responsibility rather than relying on a single specialist for every snap.

Greg Dortch served as the primary spark in the return game, managing both kickoff and punt return duties throughout the season. He recorded 31 kickoff returns for a total of 811 yards and added 16 punt returns for 185 yards. While the unit did not score any touchdowns on returns, they were equally effective at preventing scores, as opponents failed to reach the end zone on either punt or kickoff returns against Arizona. Akeem Davis-Gaither provided essential support in coverage, leading the team with 18 combined tackles on special teams plays.

Penalty Analysis

The Cardinals’ discipline issues in 2025 were not just frequent but strategically damaging, particularly on early downs where they ranked as the most penalized offense in the league. Arizona committed 67 offensive penalties for 521 yards, with offensive holding (25 flags) and false starts (18 flags) serving as the primary culprits. This lack of control was especially pronounced at home, where the team finished as the NFL’s most penalized home squad, a troubling trend given their nine home games in the upcoming schedule. While the offense accounted for 53% of the team’s total infractions—above the league average of 47.7%—the unit did manage to avoid third-down pitfalls better than most, with only 17.5% of their penalties occurring on third down compared to the league’s 23.8%. Nevertheless, the Cardinals suffered a net negative penalty disadvantage in all four quarters and failed to gain beneficial automatic first downs via penalty more often than they conceded them.

Looking ahead to 2026, the organizational reset under new head coach Mike LaFleur faces an uphill battle against a brutal schedule in what is projected to be the toughest division in football. The roster retains high-end talent at skill positions, including Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr., but their production remains tethered to a quarterback room that Sharp ranks as the weakest in the league at number 32. With Jacoby Brissett and Kyler Murray combining for 19 giveaways last season and the offensive line struggling to protect them, the foundation for consistent scoring is shaky. Consequently, despite the presence of explosive playmakers, the combination of disciplinary lapses, a difficult strength of schedule ranked 32nd hardest, and quarterback instability points toward another single-digit win season as the franchise eyes the 2027 draft for a long-term solution.

Types of Penalties

Offense:* 67 penalties for 521 yards (#23). Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (18), Delay of Game (4). Most flags in Shotgun (19), Under Center (15), Pistol (3). Most flagged players:* Kelvin Beachum (7), Paris Johnson Jr. (6), Isaiah Adams (5).

Defense:* 48 penalties for 321 yards (#18). Most common: Defensive Holding (9), Defensive Pass Interference (7), Defensive Offside (5). Most flags in Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (7), Cover 0 (3). Most flagged players:* Will Johnson (6), Denzel Burke (5), Max Melton (4).

The Cardinals' offense struggled with discipline, committing 67 penalties that cost the team 521 yards and ranked 23rd in the league. Offensive holding was the primary culprit, accounting for 25 of those flags, while false starts added another 18 infractions to the tally. These mistakes occurred most frequently when the unit operated out of shotgun formation, which drew 19 penalties, compared to 15 flags while under center. The burden of these errors fell heavily on the offensive line, as Kelvin Beachum led all players with seven penalties, followed by Paris Johnson Jr. with six and Isaiah Adams with five.

Defensively, the unit was slightly more controlled but still incurred 48 penalties for 321 yards, ranking 18th overall. Defensive holding was the most common issue with nine occurrences, while defensive pass interference and defensive offside contributed seven and five flags respectively. These defensive lapses happened most often in Cover 1 schemes, which drew 15 flags, whereas Cover 3 and Cover 0 drew seven and three flags. Among individual defenders, Will Johnson was flagged most often with six penalties, while Denzel Burke and Max Melton followed with five and four infractions.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Trey McBride TE1, Jeremiyah Love RB14.

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the roster call — who to target, who to fade, and who inherits work from free agency and the draft.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg* and xFPavg* are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Trey McBride (18.6 FPavg), Jacoby Brissett (16.1 FPavg), Kyler Murray (15.6 FPavg), Michael Wilson (13.0 FPavg), James Conner (11.1 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP* and FPavg* are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP* and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg* is per play).

The Arizona Cardinals offense faced Cover 3 most frequently in 2025, with that scheme accounting for 29.6% of their plays and generating 1.59 fantasy points per play in full PPR formats. Cover 2 was the second most common look at 23.1%, yielding a slightly higher 1.63 FPavg, while Cover 1 appeared on 19.7% of snaps and produced 1.72 FPavg. Although these three coverages made up the bulk of the defensive looks, the unit found significantly more efficiency against less frequent schemes. Cover 4 generated 2.25 FPavg, and Cover 0 was the most explosive coverage faced, producing 3.42 FPavg despite only appearing on 2.8% of plays.

Trey McBride was the primary beneficiary across almost every coverage type, leading the team in total fantasy points against Cover 3, Cover 2, Cover 1, and Cover 6. Michael Wilson also saw heavy volume, finishing as the top scorer against Cover 4 and ranking second behind McBride in both Cover 3 and Cover 2. Marvin Harrison Jr. made his biggest impact against single-high safety looks, leading the team in scoring against Cover 0 with 17 points and contributing 5 points against Cover 6. Greg Dortch and Xavier Weaver had smaller but notable roles, with Dortch scoring 12 points against 2 Man coverage and Weaver adding 2 points against Cover 9.

For fantasy managers, Trey McBride remains the clear anchor of this passing attack given his consistent production regardless of the defensive shell. He posted strong numbers against the most common coverages, making him a reliable weekly starter. Michael Wilson offers solid value as the secondary option, particularly if defenses lean heavily into Cover 3 or Cover 4 where he has shown the ability to accumulate points. Marvin Harrison Jr. carries higher volatility but possesses significant upside against blitz-heavy or single-high looks like Cover 0, where he averaged high efficiency. Running backs in this system offer limited fantasy ceiling due to the pass-heavy approach, so priority should remain on securing targets from the tight end and wide receiver positions. The Arizona Cardinals receivers graded 12th in pass rate and pass plays, which inherently limits the rushing volume available to backs like James Conner or Bam Knight. While Knight showed some red zone utility with five touchdowns, the overall lack of rush attempts makes running backs risky fantasy options compared to the high-volume pass catchers.

The offense struggled significantly in the red zone, ranking 26th in success rate, which further depresses the ceiling for running backs who rely on goal-line carries. Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. were the most efficient players in these critical situations, suggesting that even when the team fails to score touchdowns, these two are likely to see enough target share to maintain fantasy relevance through yardage. Fantasy managers should prioritize McBride as a top-tier tight end option while viewing Wilson and Harrison as complementary pieces whose weekly output will depend heavily on defensive coverage schemes.

Skill adds: Tyler Allgeier (RB) at $6.09M, Gardner Minshew (QB) at $5.79M, Kendrick Bourne (WR) at $5M, and Devin Duvernay (WR) at $1.89M.

Skill losses: Zay Jones (WR), Greg Dortch (WR) to the Lions, Pharaoh Brown (TE), Emari Demercado (RB) to the Chiefs, Michael Carter (RB) to the Titans, Josiah Deguara (TE), Andre Baccellia (WR), and Travis Vokolek (TE).

Skill draft picks: Jeremiyah Love (RB, Rd 1, Notre Dame), Carson Beck (QB, Rd 3, Miami (FL)), and Reggie Virgil (WR, Rd 5, Texas Tech).

Trey McBride stands out as the clear fantasy anchor for Arizona, having led the team with 18.6 full PPR points per game and a robust 28.9% target share across 17 games. His efficiency was evident in both early-down success and red-zone production, making him the primary beneficiary of an offense that ranked first in pass rate but struggled significantly in the running game. Behind him, Michael Wilson provided steady volume with 13.0 points per game and a 18.2% target share, while Marvin Harrison Jr. posted strong efficiency metrics despite missing five games, averaging 10.5 points per contest. The quarterback situation saw Jacoby Brissett lead in total fantasy output due to durability, though Kyler Murray demonstrated higher upside per snap with a 21.1 expected points average in his limited five-game sample.

The backfield remains a complex committee scenario given the departure of key contributors like Emari Demercado and Michael Carter, who combined for significant rushing and receiving work in 2025. James Conner showed high efficiency in limited action, but the addition of Tyler Allgeier via free agency and the selection of Jeremiyah Love in the first round of the draft signals a major reshuffling of rushing duties. Bam Knight and Trey Benson also remain in the mix after showing flashes of productivity, but fantasy managers should expect a fragmented workload until one player clearly separates himself in training camp. The offense’s heavy reliance on passing, evidenced by their league-leading pass rate, suggests that even the secondary running backs may derive more value from receiving opportunities than traditional carries.

Significant roster turnover at wide receiver and tight end further complicates the target distribution for 2026. The loss of Zay Jones and Greg Dortch removes two established options from the slot and outside roles, creating immediate vacancies for rookie Reggie Virgil and free-agent signee Kendrick Bourne to fill. Devin Duvernay also joins the receiving corps, adding depth to a group that must replace the production of departed players. With Gardner Minshew added as a quarterback option alongside Carson Beck, the competition for snaps will be fierce, but the underlying pass-heavy scheme ensures that any player who wins a starting role will have ample opportunity to accumulate fantasy points through volume.

Inside Scoop

Sharp assigns the Arizona Cardinals a D grade for Penalties & Discipline, reflecting concerns about the team’s ability to avoid costly mistakes and maintain consistency in 2026. Separately, Sharp forecasts just 4.5 wins for Arizona. The running backs stand out as the team’s strongest positional unit at No. 9, while the quarterback room ranks last in the league at No. 32. That imbalance adds to the challenge facing new head coach Mike LaFleur as the Cardinals begin another transition. With the NFL’s hardest schedule by Sharp’s rankings and a difficult divisional path, Arizona has little margin for error. Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr. provide high-end receiving talent, but the offense’s ceiling remains closely tied to whether the quarterback play can improve enough to take advantage of those weapons. Sharp’s broader outlook points toward another difficult season as the franchise continues searching for a long-term answer at quarterback.

The 2025 tape supports this pessimistic outlook, showing a 3-14 straight-up record and a 4-13 mark against the spread. The offense struggled to move the ball efficiently, ranking 22nd in early-down success rate and 26th in red zone efficiency, while surrendering the most pass plays in the league. Turnover issues were significant, with Jacoby Brissett leading the team with 12 giveaways compared to Kyler Murray’s four, contributing to a negative net turnover value. Defensively, the unit allowed 28.7 points per game, ranking 29th, and gave up the second-most explosive plays through Cover 3 and Cover 1 schemes. Although the team generated respectable fantasy points per game, ranking eighth, this was driven by volume rather than scoring efficiency, as they finished 23rd in points per game. The addition of Gardner Minshew and Isaac Seumalo may provide marginal stability, but the departure of key veterans like Calais Campbell and Jalen Thompson leaves significant holes that a hard schedule will likely expose.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.