Arizona Cardinals 2026 Preview
Warren Sharp’s 2026 forecast puts the Arizona Cardinals at 4.5 wins and a projected fourth-place finish in the NFC West after last year’s 3-14 collapse. The schedule does them no favors either: Arizona again draws the hardest strength of schedule in the league (#32), including another full slate of games against Seattle, the Rams, and San Francisco.
There are pieces to build around. Sharp’s positional grades peg Running Backs as the strongest unit on the roster (#9) and Receivers as a respectable mid-pack group (#12), anchored by Trey McBride’s historic production and a still-young Marvin Harrison Jr. / Michael Wilson combo. The trouble is the units around them: Quarterbacks sit #32 and the Offensive Line #26 on offense, while the Front 7 and Secondary land at #29 and #28 on defense. New head coach Mike LaFleur inherits a roster that can put skill talent on the field — and still has no settled answer under center.
Snapshot
- Win Total (Sharp's Forecast): 4.5
- Division Rank (Projected): 4
- 2025 Record: 3-14
- Strength of Schedule (SOS) Rank (1=Easiest, 32=Hardest): 32
- Average Vegas Line: 8.6
- Home / Road Avg Line: 6.8 / 10.6
- Games Favored / Underdog: 0 / 17
Coaching Staff
- Head Coach: Mike LaFleur (new)
- Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett (new)
- Defensive Coordinator: Nick Rallis (3 yrs)
Positional Unit Rankings
| Unit | Rank (1=Best) |
|---|---|
| Quarterbacks | 32 |
| Offensive Line | 26 |
| Receivers | 12 |
| Running Backs | 9 |
| Front 7 | 29 |
| Secondary | 28 |
| Head Coach | 31 |
Strongest Unit: Running Backs (#9)
Weakest Unit: Quarterbacks (#32)
Personnel Impact
Key Free Agents & Trades Added
- Isaac Seumalo (LG) — $10.5M
- Tyler Allgeier (RB) — $6.09M
- Gardner Minshew (QB) — $5.79M
- Roy Lopez (IDL) — $5.29M
- Kendrick Bourne (WR) — $5M
- Elijah Wilkinson (LG) — $3.10M
- Andrew Wingard (S) — $3M
- Andrew Billings (IDL) — $2.39M
- Devin Duvernay (WR) — $1.89M
Key Players Lost
- Jonah Williams (RT)
- Jalen Thompson (S)
- Justin Jones (IDL)
- Bilal Nichols (IDL)
- Dalvin Tomlinson (IDL)
- Calais Campbell (EDGE)
- Kelvin Beachum (LT)
- Evan Brown (RG)
- Zay Jones (WR)
- Will Hernandez (RG)
- Greg Dortch (WR)
- Aaron Brewer (LS)
- Matt Haack (P)
- Pharaoh Brown (TE)
- Emari Demercado (RB)
- Channing Tindall (LB)
- Darren Hall (CB)
- Michael Carter (RB)
- Josiah Deguara (TE)
- J.J. Russell (LB)
- Andre Baccellia (WR)
- Travis Vokolek (TE)
2026 Draft Class
| Rd | Pick | Pos | Player | College |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | RB | Jeremiyah Love | Notre Dame |
| 2 | 34 | G | Chase Bisontis | Texas A&M |
| 3 | 65 | QB | Carson Beck | Miami (FL) |
| 4 | 104 | DT | Kaleb Proctor | Southeastern Louisiana |
| 5 | 143 | WR | Reggie Virgil | Texas Tech |
| 6 | 183 | LB | Karson Sharar | Iowa |
| 7 | 217 | T | Jayden Williams | Ole Miss |
Over / Under (4.5 Wins)
Over Case: The over starts with the run game. Sharp grades Arizona’s Running Backs as the strongest unit on the roster (#9), and the front office built toward that edge: Tyler Allgeier in free agency, Jeremiyah Love at No. 3 overall, and offensive-line help via Isaac Seumalo, Elijah Wilkinson, and second-rounder Chase Bisontis. Layer in a bounce from historically bad 2025 player health and one of the friendliest rest-timing boards in the league, and you can sketch a path to 5–6 wins even if the quarterback room never becomes average — especially if McBride and the receivers keep manufacturing chunk plays in a wide-zone, play-action attack.
Under Case: The cleaner bet starts under center. Sharp ranks the Quarterbacks last in the NFL (#32), and neither Gardner Minshew nor third-rounder Carson Beck projects as a league-average starter. The Offensive Line (#26), Front 7 (#29), Secondary (#28), and Head Coach (#31) all sit near the bottom of the board as well. Six games against Seattle, the Rams, and San Francisco headline the league’s hardest SOS. Better health helps a rebuilding roster; it does not turn this personnel profile into an over.
Schedule Timing & Rest
Source: p.78
Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)
| Rank type | Rank |
|---|---|
| Net rest edge rank | 1 |
| Prep rank | 1 |
| Rest rank | 1 |
| Short-week road games rank | 14 |
| Games off road SNF/MNF rank | 4 |
| Negated bye rank | 5 |
Schedule Timing & Rest Analysis
On pure timing, Arizona’s 2026 slate is excellent. The Cardinals rank first in net rest edge, prep rank, and rest rank — as clean a recovery profile as any team in the league gets. They also sit 4th in games off road Sunday Night / Monday Night Football, limiting how often they have to travel for premium prime-time spots, and 14th in short-week road games.
Their negated-bye rank of 5 is another relative plus on the timing board (that is not the same thing as “Arizona has no bye”). For a roster that lived in the trainer’s room in 2025, those edges matter. They are still a partial offset, not a reason to throw out Sharp’s hardest-SOS and 4.5-win forecast on their own.
Draft Class Impact
Arizona used the No. 3 overall pick on Jeremiyah Love, who immediately becomes one of the highest-paid running backs in the league. Sharp still flags limited short-term win impact on one of the NFL’s weaker teams — but the hole the pick is aimed at is real. Cardinals backs gained 10 or more yards on just 8.2% of attempts last season, ranking 28th. Pairing Love with McBride and Harrison Jr. is the coherent long-game vision if Carson Beck (or a 2027 first-round quarterback) ever stabilizes the position.
The supporting picks fit the same thesis. Chase Bisontis (second round, G) joins an offensive line Sharp grades 26th; with Isaac Seumalo already signed to start at left guard, Bisontis likely competes with Isaiah Adams at right guard. Carson Beck (third round) is the quarterback flier after a college résumé marked by decision-making concerns — the stated plan is that he sits and learns unless he forces the issue in camp. This class builds the run game and the line. It does not solve 2026 quarterback play.
Critical & Game-Deciding Stats
Source: p.76
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| TO Margin | -2 |
| TO Given | 21 |
| INT Given | 11 |
| FUM Given | 10 |
| TO Taken | 19 |
| INT Taken | 10 |
| FUM Taken | 9 |
| Sack Margin | -29 |
| Sacks Allowed | 59 |
| Sacks Recorded | 30 |
| Return TD Margin | -1 |
| Ret TDs | 2 |
| Ret TDs Allow | 3 |
| Penalty Margin | -18 |
| Penalties | 115 |
| Opponent Penalties | 97 |
Offensive Advanced Metrics
Source: p.76
Offensive Efficiency/Drive
| Metric | Value (Rank) |
|---|---|
| Pts/D | 1.98 (#23) |
| TD/D | 22% (#20) |
| TO/D | 11% (#18) |
| Punts/D | 35% (#21) |
| 3Out% | 27% (#7) |
| RZDrive% | 36% (#8) |
| Yds/D | 31.5 (#16) |
| DSCv% | 72% (#16) |
Down Analysis Vs NFL Average
Source: p.80
Team ranks vs NFL (1=best, 32=worst) by down:
| Metric | 1st | 2nd | 3rd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass Rate | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| EPA/Dropbk | 27 | 11 | 17 |
| Pass Success % | 27 | 14 | 15 |
| Yd/Att | 27 | 17 | 15 |
| 1D/Att | 24 | 12 | 9 |
| Passer Rating | 26 | 8 | 16 |
| 7+ Box Def Faced % | 28 | 26 | 30 |
| EPA/Rush | 31 | 15 | 10 |
| Rush Success % | 27 | 13 | 7 |
| Yd/Rush | 30 | 13 | 2 |
| 1D/Rush | 31 | 9 | 11 |
| Avg Dist To 1st | 32 | 30 | 29 |
Offensive Personnel Usage
Source: p.81
| Personnel | % of plays | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 (3WR) | 46.4% | #25 |
| 1-2 (2WR) | 29.1% | #8 |
| 1-3 (1WR) | 10.4% | #3 |
| 2-1 (2WR) | 0.0% | #31 |
| 2-2 (1WR) | 0.1% | #27 |
| 1-0 (4WR) | 0.0% | #16 |
Offensive Performance With Motion (Pre-Snap & Play Action)
Source: p.85
Pass Success Rate by pre-snap motion × play action
| Pre-Snap Motion | No Play Action | Play Action | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 45% | 48% | 46% |
| Yes | 53% | 48% | 51% |
| Total | 48% | 48% | 48% |
Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook
Arizona’s 2025 passing game lived and died with stopgaps. Over the final nine games of the season, Jacoby Brissett completed 64.9% of his passes for 6.7 yards per attempt — and still took 30 sacks in that span, second-most in the league. Career starter records fill in the rest of the picture: Brissett’s teams are 20-45 in his starts, Minshew’s are 17-30. Both veterans are only signed through 2026, with third-rounder Carson Beck as the developmental option behind them.
The weapons were not the problem. Trey McBride finished second in the NFL with 126 receptions and added 11 touchdowns, while Michael Wilson closed the year with 56 catches and 775 yards over the final eight games. Looking ahead, Sharp grades the Quarterbacks #32 and the Offensive Line #26 into a 4.5-win season against the hardest strength of schedule (#32). Marvin Harrison Jr. needs a healthy third year after an injury-marred second season, and Wilson enters the final year of his rookie contract. Until the pocket and the passer stabilize, this offense stays capped — no matter how good the skill group looks on paper.
Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook
Trey McBride authored a historic 2025: 126 receptions (second in the NFL), 1,239 yards, and 11 touchdowns — the most catches by a tight end in a single season, and back-to-back 100-catch years that no modern TE great had matched. Michael Wilson’s closing stretch kept the room productive even when the season was lost: over the final eight games he was tied for second among wide receivers in receptions (56) and second in receiving yards (775).
Sharp’s 2026 Receivers unit grade is #12 even after Arizona added Kendrick Bourne and Devin Duvernay for depth. Red-zone volume followed the same hierarchy — McBride led the team with 33 targets (22 from the 11–20), Wilson had 16, and Harrison Jr. had 10 in an injury-limited second season. The talent is real. The ceiling still runs through whoever is throwing the football.
Red Zone Targets Leaderboard
Source: p.85
| Player | All RZ | 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | 33 | 5 | 6 | 22 |
| Michael Wilson | 16 | 0 | 4 | 12 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| Greg Dortch | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Michael Carter | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| Bam Knight | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Early Down Targets
Source: p.85
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| WR Target % | 39% |
| TE Target % | 36% |
| RB Target % | 21% |
| WR Target % Rk | #31 |
| TE Target % Rk | #1 |
| RB Target % Rk | #9 |
| WR Success % | 50% |
| TE Success % | 53% |
| RB Success% | 45% |
| WR Success% Rk | #14 |
| TE Success% Rk | #16 |
| RB Success% Rk | #10 |
Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook
2025 was a M.A.S.H. backfield. No Arizona running back reached 100 carries. Michael Carter led the team with 92 rushes; Bam Knight followed with 82 attempts and 104 touches for 429 yards and five touchdowns. James Conner was done after three games with a foot injury, and Trey Benson was not far behind on the shelf. Explosive runs were scarce — Cardinals backs gained 10 or more yards on just 8.2% of attempts, ranking 28th. Knight’s red-zone work (16 rushes, seven inside the 5) was one of the few bright spots on an otherwise thin board.
The 2026 room is rebuilt around Jeremiyah Love, the No. 3 overall pick out of Notre Dame after 1,652 yards and 21 touchdowns on 226 touches. Sharp grades Running Backs #9 and the Offensive Line #26 heading into the year — forward-looking positional grades, not a claim that Arizona finished ninth in rushing last season — and the Cardinals stacked the depth chart with Tyler Allgeier, a returning Conner, and a re-signed Knight. Love is the featured long-term bet in LaFleur’s wide-zone attack, but Year 1 still looks like a committee on a 4.5-win team with the league’s hardest strength of schedule.
Red Zone Rushes Leaderboard
Source: p.85
| Player | All RZ | 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bam Knight | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 |
| Michael Carter | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| Emari Demercado | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| James Conner | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 |
Red Zone Efficiency
Source: p.85
| RZ metric | Rank |
|---|---|
| EPA/Play | #21 |
| Pass Rate | #1 |
| EPA/Dropbk | #17 |
| Early Dwn EPA/Dropbk | #23 |
| Pass Success % | #19 |
| Yd/Att | #23 |
| Play Action % | #4 |
| EPA/Rush | #27 |
| Early Dwn EPA/Rush | #25 |
| Rush Success % | #24 |
| Yd/Rsh | #16 |
| 3rd Conv % | #9 |
| Motion % | #29 |
Scoring Ranks & Points/Margins
Source: p.85
Scoring ranks
| Metric | Rank |
|---|---|
| 1st Qtr Pts | #18 |
| 2nd Qtr Pts | #24 |
| Halftime Lead | #26 |
| 3rd Qtr Pts | #15 |
| 4th Qtr Pts | #29 |
| 4th Qtr Margin | #32 |
| PPG | #23 |
| Opp PPG | #29 |
| ATS Cover % | #29 |
| ATS Cover Margin | #30 |
Points & margins
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| 1H Pts Mgn | -67 |
| 2H Pts Mgn | -63 |
| 1Q Pts | 77 |
| 1Q Pts Mgn | -24 |
| 2Q Pts | 107 |
| 2Q Pts Mgn | -43 |
| 3Q Pts | 83 |
| 3Q Pts Mgn | -8 |
| 4Q Pts | 88 |
| 4Q Pts Mgn | -55 |
| Ws Up @ Half | 3 |
| Ls Up @ Half | 3 |
| Ws Down @ Half | 0 |
| Ls Down @ Half | 10 |
Defensive Outlook
Arizona’s 2025 defense was a slog. The Cardinals allowed 4.8 yards per running back carry (27th) and 3.38 yards before contact on those runs, finished 27th in pressure rate, and ranked 28th with just 30 sacks. Free agency brought Roy Lopez and Andrew Billings onto the defensive front alongside 2025 first-rounder Walter Nolen, who was limited to six games as a rookie. Jonah Williams left as a right tackle and is not part of that defensive rebuild.
Josh Sweat did his part with a 13.9% pressure rate and 12 sacks, though trade rumors follow him. Zaven Collins and Baron Browning posted solid pressure rates without matching that sack production. Sharp grades the Front 7 #29 and the Secondary #28 for 2026. Pass defense allowed 7.2 yards per pass attempt (22nd) and ranked 29th in EPA allowed per pass attempt. Will Johnson (10 pass breakups in 12 games) is the secondary’s best recent hit; depth behind him is unsettled after injuries to Garrett Williams, Sean Murphy-Bunting, and Starling Thomas opened snaps for Denzel Burke. Mack Wilson returns from a limited 2025, and Cody Simon could take a step after 564 rookie snaps. Getting back to average is still a steep climb.
Defensive Advanced Metrics
Source: p.76
Defensive Efficiency/Drive
| Metric | Value (Rank) |
|---|---|
| Pts/D | 2.59 (#29) |
| TD/D | 29% (#28) |
| TO/D | 10% (#21) |
| Punts/D | 23% (#32) |
| 3Out% | 28% (#20) |
| RZDrive% | 38% (#31) |
| Yds/D | 33.4 (#23) |
| DSCv% | 77% (#30) |
Defensive Tendencies
Source: p.84
| Tendency | % | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Base | 42% | #4 |
| Nickel | 41% | #29 |
| Dime+ | 16% | #5 |
| Rush 3 | 3% | #14 |
| Rush 4 | 73% | #12 |
| Rush 5 | 20% | #17 |
| Rush 6+ | 4% | #22 |
| Blitz% | 24% | #21 |
Penalty Analysis
Arizona’s 2025 penalty profile was offense-heavy and home-heavy. The Cardinals ranked as the No. 1 most penalized home team, and the offense accounted for 53% of the team’s penalties against a league average of 47.7% — on a raw total of 115 flags and a −18 penalty margin. A big driver was ranking as the No. 1 most penalized offense on first-down plays. They were also a top-five team in offensive holding (worse at home, second in per-game holding) and led the NFL in offensive holding penalties per game on first downs. One relative bright spot: only 17.5% of their penalties came on third down, below the 23.8% league average. Still, they posted a net negative penalty disadvantage versus opponents in all four quarters, and trailed opponents on automatic first downs via penalty.
Fantasy Advice & Targets
Source: Sharp fantasy positional boards (p.62, 71)
Sharp Fantasy Rankings (this team)
| Player | Pos | Sharp Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride | TE | TE1 |
| Jeremiyah Love | RB | RB14 |
Trey McBride is Sharp’s TE1 and the clear fantasy headliner in Arizona. He just posted 126 receptions (second in the NFL), 1,239 yards, and 11 touchdowns — the most catches by a tight end in a single season, on top of back-to-back 100-catch years. The Cardinals also led the league in TE target share on early downs, and McBride paced the team with 33 red-zone targets. Even on a 4.5-win roster with unsettled quarterback play, that volume keeps him in the weekly TE1 conversation.
The receiver room behind him still has real upside. Michael Wilson’s closing stretch — 56 receptions and 775 yards over the final eight games — showed what the role looks like when he is featured. Marvin Harrison Jr. enters Year 3 after an injury-marred second season: the talent is obvious, but he needs a healthy year and better quarterback play before he is treated as a locked-in WR1. Kendrick Bourne and Devin Duvernay add depth more than they change the hierarchy. In a TE-heavy pass game, McBride remains the priority, Wilson is the steadier recent-usage WR bet, and Harrison is the upside swing if the offense stabilizes.
Jeremiyah Love lands at RB14 on Sharp’s board. The traits are loud — 1,652 yards and 21 scores on 226 Notre Dame touches, 4.2 yards after contact, and elite production once he reaches the second level — and LaFleur’s wide-zone scheme can feature him. Year 1 still comes with a committee caveat, though: Tyler Allgeier and James Conner are already on the roster, Love has a leaner build and no massive NFL workload yet, and Arizona is projected near the bottom of the standings. Treat him as a high-upside RB2 with RB1 range if the touch share consolidates, not as an automatic early-round workhorse.
Bottom Line
Warren Sharp’s 2026 number for the Arizona Cardinals is 4.5 wins and a fourth-place division finish after a 3-14 season, into the hardest strength of schedule in the league (#32). His overall grade for Arizona is a D. The clearest roster plus is the Running Backs unit at #9, with a pass-catching core that can still win fantasy weeks even when the team cannot win games. Almost everything else is a drag: Quarterbacks #32, Offensive Line #26, Front 7 #29, Secondary #28, and Head Coach #31.
Free agency and the draft stacked the depth chart — headlined by Jeremiyah Love at No. 3 overall, with solid veterans like Tyler Allgeier, Isaac Seumalo, Gardner Minshew, and Kendrick Bourne filling real needs — while losses like Jonah Williams (RT), Jalen Thompson, and Calais Campbell leave gaps. Those swaps can upgrade spots on paper. They do not fix the quarterback problem that still caps McBride and Harrison Jr. in the win column.
Mike LaFleur inherits a rebuild on a brutal schedule in arguably the toughest division in the league. Skill talent like McBride and Harrison Jr. still needs more reliable quarterback play to matter in the win column, and Sharp’s path remains another single-digit win season in the desert — with an eye toward a possible franchise quarterback in the 2027 draft.
The market matches the under lean: average Vegas line 8.6, home/road average lines 6.8 / 10.6, and 0 games favored against 17 as underdogs. Friendly rest-timing ranks help at the margins. Personnel and schedule still point under 4.5 more cleanly than over.
Generated from an OKF knowledge wiki extract of the Sharp Football Preview. Numbers and rankings follow the book; verify against the latest market before betting.