NFL 2026 PREVIEW: ATLANTA FALCONS

The Atlanta Falcons enter 2026 coming off 8-9, 20.8 points scored (24th) and 23.6 allowed (19th). Warren Sharp parks them at 7.5 wins and fourth in the NFC South on the league’s sixth-easiest schedule. Sharp’s preseason betting snapshot lists Atlanta as a 3.1-point underdog on average, with only two games as a favorite.

Kevin Stefanski (head coach 20th) and Tommy Rees take the offense; Jeff Ulbrich is in year two of the defense. Sharp’s board is Running Backs first, Front 7 31st, Quarterbacks 28th — that QB rank is the preseason Penix/Tua panel. On September 11, Cooper Rush starts against Pittsburgh, Jack Strand is the backup, and both Tua Tagovailoa (oblique) and Michael Penix Jr. are out.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Jahan Dotson (WR), Jawaan Taylor (RT), Tua Tagovailoa (QB), Austin Hooper (TE), Cameron Thomas (EDGE), Da'Shawn Hand (DL), Brian Robinson Jr. (RB), Olamide Zaccheaus (WR), Cooper Rush (QB), Za'Darius Smith (DE), Gervon Dexter Sr. (DL), Maason Smith (DL), Samson Ebukam (DE), Nick Folk (K), Jake Bailey (P), and Josh Woods (LB).

Key Departures: Kaden Elliss (LB) to the Saints, David Onyemata (IDL) to the Jets, Leonard Floyd (EDGE), Tyler Allgeier (RB) to the Cardinals, Dee Alford (CB) to the Bills, Arnold Ebiketie (EDGE) to the Eagles, Elijah Wilkinson (LG) to the Cardinals, Darnell Mooney (WR) to the Giants, KhaDarel Hodge (WR), Ruke Orhorhoro (IDL) to the Jaguars (Maason Smith in return), Bradley Pinion (P) to the Dolphins, Zane Gonzalez (K) to the Dolphins, Kentavius Street (EDGE) to the Bears, Ronnie Harrison (S) to the Dolphins, Easton Stick (QB) to the Colts, Feleipe Franks (TE) to the Panthers, Teagan Quitoriano (TE) to the Cardinals, David Sills (WR) to the Buccaneers, Deven Thompkins (WR) to the Bills, Khalid Kareem (EDGE) to the Giants, Sam Roberts (IDL) to the Giants, Elijah Garcia (IDL), Ryan Hayes (LT) to the Titans, Casey Washington (WR), Tyrone Wheatley Jr. (RT), Malik Heath (WR), Emory Jones (QB), Azeez Ojulari (EDGE, released), and Clark Phillips III (CB) to the Bears.

Stefanski produced two winning Browns seasons, then 8-26 over the last two years. Rees is new. Ulbrich already showed the aggressive version of this defense. Cooper Rush signed July 29 when Penix was not yet cleared for full-team work; he is the Week 1 starter against Pittsburgh, with Jack Strand behind him, after Tua and Penix were ruled out Friday. Jahan Dotson and Austin Hooper join Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Brian Robinson Jr. comes from San Francisco after Tyler Allgeier left for Arizona. Bijan’s August extension runs through 2030.

The pass rush that set a franchise sack record lost Leonard Floyd, Arnold Ebiketie, and David Onyemata, then lost both 2025 first-round rushers for the opener: Jalon Walker is on Reserve/Injured (ACL) for the season, and James Pearce Jr. is suspended the first eight games (eligible November 2). Za'Darius Smith signed August 18. Gervon Dexter Sr. arrived August 30 from Chicago for Clark Phillips III and a 2027 fifth. Maason Smith came over in the Orhorhoro trade and starts on the Week 1 DL chart. Da'Shawn Hand is interior rotation. Azeez Ojulari was released at cutdown. Dee Alford is in Buffalo. Kaden Elliss is in New Orleans.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

Atlanta had no first-round pick, the leftover of last year’s trade-up for Pearce under then-GM Terry Fontenot. New GM Ian Cunningham still came away with Clemson corner Avieon Terrell at 48, a size-slide prospect who allowed a catch rate 26% below expected at Clemson. Sharp’s chapter had him competing with Mike Hughes or working nickel after Alford left. He opens as the starting nickel; Hughes starts outside opposite A.J. Terrell. Billy Bowman Jr. is out for Week 1.

Zachariah Branch (Georgia, pick 79) is the backup wideout and the Week 1 punt returner. Kendal Daniels starts at inside linebacker. Harold Perkins Jr. is the backup ILB. Ethan Onianwa is reserve right tackle. Anterio Thompson is on Reserve/NFI.

Sharp Forecasts Atlanta Falcons with 7.5 Wins

Over Case: Atlanta ranked 31st in fumble luck: 19 fumbles and 10 lost, while opponents put 23 on the ground and lost seven. London missed four games with a PCL sprain after three healthy seasons; when he played he ranked seventh in yards per route run (2.36) and sixth in target share (28.7%) among wide receivers with 250-plus routes. Pitts just had a healthy year. A full London season and less fumble misfortune is how 7.5 breaks the other way.

Under Case: Among 33 qualified quarterbacks, Penix was 25th in EPA per play and Tagovailoa 27th. Among 36 passers with 250-plus dropbacks, Tagovailoa tied for the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate and Penix tied for 10th. Opposing coordinators will live with Dotson, Zaccheaus, and Hooper if London or Pitts misses time. Last year’s defense was 16th in yards allowed per play, 19th in scoring (23.6), 15th in pressure rate, and tied for seventh with 23 takeaways. Elliss and Ebiketie led the club in pass-rush win rate and both left. Atlanta went 3-4 in games decided by three points or fewer and 0-2 in overtime.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Atlanta carries a season-long net rest differential of +7 days versus its opponents, ninth-best on Sharp's timing scale. Prep rank is 13th, rest rank 10th, short-week road games 9th, games off road SNF/MNF 9th, and negated bye 6th.

Five weeks have a non-zero rest differential. Week 12 vs Minnesota is a seven-day rest edge. Week 5 at Baltimore is short rest after a Sunday night game. Week 13 vs Detroit is a three-day deficit. Week 4 vs New Orleans on Monday night is a three-day edge. Week 7 vs San Francisco is a one-day edge.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club +7 days.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Kirk Cousins (5 INT, 1 FL), Michael Penix Jr. (3 INT, 2 FL), Bijan Robinson (3 FL), Drake London (1 FL), Nate Carter (1 FL), Natrone Brooks (1 FL, special teams return). Takeaways: Xavier Watts (5 INT, 1 FR), Dee Alford (3 INT, 1 FR), Jessie Bates (3 INT), Billy Bowman Jr. (1 INT), Divine Deablo (1 FR), DeAngelo Malone (1 INT)

Atlanta threw eight interceptions, fourth-fewest in the league, and lost ten fumbles (24th). Cousins had five picks and one fumble lost. Penix had three and two. Bijan lost three. London, Nate Carter, and Natrone Brooks (return) each lost one. Giveaways ranked 13th at 18.

The defense generated 23 takeaways (seventh), including 16 interceptions (sixth). Watts had five picks and one fumble recovery. Alford, now in Buffalo, had three and one. Bates had three picks. Bowman and DeAngelo Malone added one each. Deablo had one fumble recovery. Net takeaway margin was plus-five.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Michael Penix Jr. 101 yards; Kirk Cousins 79 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 21/494 ≈ 4.3% of shotgun plays; 2/199 ≈ 1.0% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): James Pearce Jr. (10.5), Brandon Dorlus (8.5), Jalon Walker (5.5), LaCale London (5)

Atlanta surrendered 26 sacks, fourth fewest in the league. Penix was charged with 101 sack yards, Cousins 79. Shotgun accounted for 21 of the 26. Pistol was three. Under center was two. The 2026 line grades 10th after a 14th-ranked pass-block win rate in 2025 and Jawaan Taylor replacing retired Kaleb McGary.

The defense finished second with 57 sacks. Pearce led with 10.5, then Dorlus (8.5), Walker (5.5), and LaCale London (5). Cover 1 produced 21 sacks; Cover 4 produced seven. Five-man rushes accounted for 18.

Return Touchdowns

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 1 (#19) — Rashid Shaheed (kickoff return).

Kickoff returner Jamal Agnew: 30 returns for 741 yards.

Punt returner Jamal Agnew: 15 returns for 114 yards.

Punt returns 24 for 168 yards; kickoff returns 67 for 1531 yards.

The Falcons scored zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns and allowed one, a Shaheed kickoff. That allowed-TD rank is 19th. Agnew’s named-returner lines were 30 kickoffs for 741 yards and 15 punts for 114. Team totals were 67 kickoffs for 1,531 yards and 24 punts for 168.

Penalties

Offense: 64 penalties for 445 yards (#18). Most common: False Start (26), Offensive Holding (15), Delay of Game (9). Most flags in Shotgun (9), Under Center (8), Pistol (7). Most flagged players: Elijah Wilkinson (11), Kyle Pitts (7), Jake Matthews (7).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 44 penalties for 374 yards (#9), including 3 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Defensive Holding (6), Kickoff Short of Landing Zone (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (12), Cover 3 (6), Cover 4 (3). Most flagged players: A.J. Terrell (9), Dee Alford (4), Zane Gonzalez (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Atlanta’s offense was assessed 64 penalties for 445 yards, 18th in the league. False start (26), offensive holding (15), and delay of game (9) led the list. The defense-side nflverse bucket was 44 penalties for 374 yards (ninth). Combined: 108 flags, 819 yards, 16th.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 799 plays, 45.6% success, 0.07 EPA/play (#8). Most efficient on early downs: Drake London (78 plays, 0.43 EPA/play), Casey Washington (8 plays, 0.40 EPA/play), Michael Penix Jr. (9 plays, 0.38 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 142 plays, 42.3% success, 0.03 EPA/play (#15). Most efficient in the red zone: Drake London (16 plays, 0.92 EPA/play), Kyle Pitts (13 plays, 0.05 EPA/play), Tyler Allgeier (33 plays, -0.05 EPA/play).

Atlanta ranked eighth in early-down EPA per play (0.07) across 799 first- and second-down plays, with a 45.6% success rate. London posted 0.43 EPA per play on 78 early-down plays. Penix posted 0.38 on nine early-down plays. Washington posted 0.40 on eight.

Red-zone EPA ranked 15th at 0.03 across 142 red-zone plays. London was 0.92 on 16 plays, Pitts 0.05 on 13, and Allgeier -0.05 on 33 red-zone plays.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -4.9 (#23); they passed 50.5% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Michael Penix Jr. (45.2% success on 290 pass plays), Kirk Cousins (44.1% success on 281 pass plays).

On rushes: Bijan Robinson (41.3% success on 288 rush plays), Tyler Allgeier (39.9% success on 143 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Atlanta ranked 10th in rush plays (465) and 21st in pass plays (571). Rush rate was 44.9% (12th) and pass rate 55.1% (21st). Rush-play success was 42.6% (18th); pass-play success 44.7% (14th). Yards per rush play 4.64 (13th); yards per pass play 6.17 (15th).

Neutral-down PROE was -4.9 (23rd), with a 50.5% pass rate on those snaps. Penix had a 45.2% success rate on 290 pass plays; Cousins 44.1% on 281. Bijan had a 41.3% success rate on 288 rush plays; Allgeier 39.9% on 143 rush plays.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Atlanta generated 56 explosive plays (20+ yards), 17th in raw count, for 1,719 yards: 47 passing (1,359) and nine rushing (360). London had 13 receiving explosives for 397 yards, Pitts 12 for 304, Bijan 10 receiving for 346 and eight rushing for 339. Atlanta generated 17 explosive plays when facing Cover 1 (548 yards) and 15 when facing Cover 3 (398 yards).

The defense allowed 64 explosives for 1,859 yards (20th): 49 passing (1,425) and 15 rushing (434). Cover 1 was on the field for 17 allowed explosives (469 yards); Cover 3 and Cover 4 each had 13 (383 and 369). McMillan and Egbuka each had four receiving explosives against Atlanta.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Atlanta ran 471 plays in 11 personnel at 1.33 full-PPR points per play. Twelve personnel ran 390 plays at 1.35 full-PPR points per play. Bijan, Pitts, Mooney, London, and Sills filled the 11-personnel core; Woerner joined the 12-personnel group.

Shotgun was 47.7% of plays at 1.60 full-PPR points per play. Pistol was 33.0% at 0.99, matching under center (19.2%, 0.99). RPOs were 50 plays at 1.01.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #3; play-action rank #28 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Atlanta used pre-snap motion on 66.8% of plays (692), third in the league, with a 44.8% success rate and 1.31 full-PPR points per play versus 1.21 without motion. Play action appeared on 11.3% of plays (117), 28th. Those tagged play-action plays produced 2.10 full-PPR points per play versus 1.18 without, at a 49.6% success rate.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp’s Quarterbacks rank of 28th is the preseason Penix/Tua panel. Penix’s 2025: 60.1% completions (30th), 7.2 yards per attempt (15th), 3.3% touchdown rate (30th), 1.1% interception rate before the Week 11 ACL. Nine DraftKings-tracked games: 14.9 average, 9.8 floor, 22.7 ceiling, zero Slate Hits. Tagovailoa’s Miami year: 6.9 yards per pass attempt (22nd), 3.9% interception rate (32nd). That pair is still the season-level quarterback question.

Week 1 availability is separate. Cooper Rush starts against Pittsburgh; Jack Strand is QB2. Atlanta had named Tua the starter before the Thursday oblique; both Tua and Penix were ruled out Friday. Rush signed July 29 when Penix was not yet in full-team work. Play-action showed up on 11.3% of 2025 plays (117, 28th). Mooney is in New York; Dotson and Zaccheaus sit behind London. Cousins is gone.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Drake London and Kyle Pitts formed the backbone of Atlanta’s passing attack in 2025, combining for 230 targets and shouldering a massive share of the offensive workload. London led the wide receiver room with 112 targets and a 28.6% target share, posting a positive +17.3 Rec EPA and averaging 18.3 DraftKings points per game across 12 appearances. His usage was particularly potent near the goal line, where he commanded 16 red-zone targets, the most on the team. Pitts operated as the primary tight end option with 118 targets and a 21.9% share, generating +20.2 Rec EPA and securing 13 red-zone looks. While Darnell Mooney contributed 72 targets before his departure to the Giants, the rest of the receiving corps saw limited volume, with David Sills drawing 36 targets and role players like KhaDarel Hodge and Casey Washington combining for just 24 targets. The unit’s efficiency varied significantly by player, as Mooney’s 14.2 air yards per target contrasted sharply with Pitts’ shorter 7.2 average, highlighting a diverse aerial approach that relied heavily on its two stars.

The 2026 room still runs through London and Pitts. Sharp has Receivers 15th, which already assumes those two and a thinner group behind them. Dotson spent 2025 in Philadelphia. Zaccheaus is back in Atlanta. Hooper is the veteran tight end. Branch is the third-round backup and the Week 1 punt returner. Early-down targets still piled onto Bijan (81), London (78), and Pitts (74).

Red-zone looks were London 16, Pitts 13, Bijan 13. Mooney’s eight inside the 20 are gone with him. The 2026 question is whether Stefanski and Rees can turn those red-zone shares into more touchdowns after Atlanta ranked 15th in red-zone EPA.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Bijan Robinson anchored the 2025 ground game with 287 carries, -25.4 Rush EPA, +0.9 RYOE/Att, and a 40.8% success rate. Tyler Allgeier added 143 carries, -15.7 Rush EPA, and a 39.2% success rate. Inside the 20, Bijan had 36 rushes and 13 targets for eight touchdowns across 49 opportunities; Allgeier had 32 rushes and one target for seven touchdowns in 33 chances.

Brian Robinson Jr. is the 2026 complement after 92 carries, 4.3 yards per carry, 42% success, and two rushing TDs behind Christian McCaffrey in San Francisco. Bijan led the NFL with 2,298 scrimmage yards on 366 touches. Sharp ranks the backfield first. Atlanta signed Bijan through 2030. Brian Robinson Jr. opens as the Week 1 kickoff returner.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Bijan Robinson 11 (7 rush, 4 rec); Tyler Allgeier 8 rush; Drake London 7 rec; Kyle Pitts 5 rec. Passing TDs: Kirk Cousins 10, Michael Penix Jr. 9. Defense TDs: Jessie Bates (1 def TD). Special teams: Zane Gonzalez 32/39 FG, 31/33 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

The 2025 scoring ledger ran through the backfield. Bijan accounted for 11 touchdowns (seven rush, four receiving). Allgeier added eight rushing scores. Cousins threw 10 touchdowns and Penix nine. London caught seven and Pitts five. Full-PPR fantasy points per game sat 23rd at 78.0.

Jessie Bates scored the only defensive touchdown. The defense still generated 23 takeaways (seventh), including 16 interceptions. Gonzalez converted 32 of 39 field goals and 31 of 33 extra points before leaving for Miami. Atlanta scored no punt or kickoff return touchdowns.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The offense’s weakest quarter was the third: 2.9 points scored (28th) and 14.6 full-PPR fantasy points (25th). The second quarter was the high-water mark at 7.1 points (15th) and 24.1 fantasy points (13th). First quarter was 4.8 (15th) and 19.3 (11th). Fourth was 6.0 (21st) and 20.0 (25th).

Points allowed were lowest in the first quarter (4.0, 10th-fewest) and highest in the fourth (7.0, 19th-fewest), with 6.0 in the second (12th) and 6.1 in the third (27th). Opponent fantasy points allowed peaked in Q4 at 22.1 (15th-fewest).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #31, Secondary #22. The Front 7 number is the published panel. It predates Walker’s IR, Pearce’s eight-game suspension, Ojulari’s release, and the Smith / Dexter / Maason Smith arrivals.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Kaden Elliss led the club with 107 tackles; James Pearce Jr. 10.5 sacks, Brandon Dorlus 8.5 sacks, Jalon Walker 5.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Kaden Elliss: 10 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD; Jessie Bates: 1 TFL, 3 INT, 6 PD; Xavier Watts: 5 INT, 11 PD; Divine Deablo: 5 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 7 PD; A.J. Terrell: 1 TFL, 12 PD; Dee Alford: 6 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 3 INT, 13 PD; James Pearce Jr.: 10 TFL, 10.5 sacks, 5 PD; Brandon Dorlus: 11 TFL, 8.5 sacks; Jalon Walker: 5 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 1 PD.

The front that takes the field in September is thinner than Sharp’s already-low Front 7 snapshot. Walker’s August ACL put him on Reserve/Injured for the season. Pearce is suspended the first eight games under the Personal Conduct Policy (eligible November 2). Atlanta therefore opens without both 2025 first-round rushers after already losing Floyd, Ebiketie, and Onyemata from a 57-sack, franchise-record rush. Ulbrich still blitzed at the second-highest rate last year and finished 19th in defensive efficiency and 27th in EPA allowed per rush.

The live front: Cameron Thomas at DE, Za'Darius Smith (signed August 18) behind him and questionable with a shoulder, Samson Ebukam behind Brandon Dorlus, Maason Smith starting inside after the Orhorhoro trade, Gervon Dexter Sr. next on that DL chart, Da'Shawn Hand in the interior rotation. Divine Deablo and Kendal Daniels are the Week 1 inside linebackers. Bates, Watts (five interceptions, 11 passes defended), and A.J. Terrell return. Hughes starts outside opposite A.J.; Avieon Terrell starts nickel. Alford and Clark Phillips III are gone. Bowman is out for Week 1.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Zane Gonzalez: 32/39 FG, 31/33 PAT.

Bradley Pinion led with 64 punts (34 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Jamal Agnew: 30 returns for 741 yards.

Punt returner Jamal Agnew: 15 returns for 114 yards.

Special teams tackler Mike Ford: 19 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Zane Gonzalez converted 32 of 39 field goals (82.1%), including eight from 50-plus and a long of 56, and 31 of 33 extra points. Bradley Pinion punted 64 times with 34 inside the 20 and no blocks. Mike Ford led coverage with 19 combined tackles. Jamal Agnew’s 2025 lines were 30 kickoffs for 741 yards and 15 punts for 114. Gonzalez and Pinion signed with Miami.

Week 1 specialists are Nick Folk at kicker, Jake Bailey at punter, and Liam McCullough at long snapper. Brian Robinson Jr. is the kick-returner. Zachariah Branch is the punt returner, with Zaccheaus also in the kick-return mix.

Penalty Analysis

The Sharp Football Preview's Penalties & Discipline grade for Atlanta is B. The offense accounted for 53.5% of the team’s penalties against a 47.7% league average, with a net head-to-head deficit in penalty yardage. Pre-snap errors were 43% of flags, up about 20% year over year, and Atlanta finished in the top five in both false starts and delay of game. First-quarter penalty rate ranked third-highest, behind Houston and New Orleans.

The narrative shifts when looking at how Atlanta leveraged rules in critical moments. The defense and special teams units generated a net positive penalty differential in the second and fourth quarters. An NFL-leading 41% of their beneficial automatic first downs via penalties occurred in the fourth quarter, against a 24.1% league average. Atlanta also ranked among the top ten home teams in generating offensive holding penalties on opponents at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 64 penalties for 445 yards (#18). Most common: False Start (26), Offensive Holding (15), Delay of Game (9). Most flags in Shotgun (9), Under Center (8), Pistol (7). Most flagged players: Elijah Wilkinson (11), Kyle Pitts (7), Jake Matthews (7).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 44 penalties for 374 yards (#9), including 3 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Defensive Holding (6), Kickoff Short of Landing Zone (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (12), Cover 3 (6), Cover 4 (3). Most flagged players: A.J. Terrell (9), Dee Alford (4), Zane Gonzalez (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Atlanta was assessed 26 false starts, 15 holdings, nine delays of game, five grounding flags, and three ineligible-downfield calls. Those are the HackingDFS offense-side counts (#18).

Defensive pass interference led the other side with nine flags, then six defensive holdings. Special teams added three holdings on punt returns. Kickoff short of landing zone and defensive offside each sat at four. A.J. Terrell led individuals with nine flags.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Kyle Pitts TE8, Drake London WR6, Bijan Robinson RB2.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Bijan Robinson (21.7 FPavg), Drake London (16.7 FPavg), Michael Penix Jr. (13.2 FPavg), Kyle Pitts (12.4 FPavg), Kirk Cousins (10.5 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Pitts led Cover 1 with 72 full-PPR points. London led Cover 2 (58) and shared Cover 4 with Mooney (24 apiece). Bijan led Cover 3 with 68. Cover 0 was the most productive shell per play at 2.44 on 19 snaps.

Mooney’s Cover 4 tie is gone with him. Dotson spent 2025 in Philadelphia behind A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (570 offensive snaps). Zaccheaus is the reunion name. Those are the snaps behind London and Pitts.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Michael Penix Jr.’s Falcons salary log is nine games, 14.9 DraftKings points, 9.8 floor, 22.7 ceiling, and zero Slate Hits. He is out for Week 1.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Drake London’s Falcons salary log is 12 games, 18.3 DraftKings points, 8.2 floor, 34.8 ceiling, and six Slate Hits. He had 112 targets, a 28.6% NFL+ target share, and 16 red-zone targets in a 12-game PCL year.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Kyle Pitts, Sharp TE8, logged 17 games, 13.0 DraftKings points, 7.7 floor, 18.0 ceiling, four TE5 Slate Hits, $4,100 average salary, and 3.08 FP/$. He led Atlanta with 118 targets, 88 catches, 928 yards, and five scores.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Bijan Robinson logged 17 games, 23.8 DraftKings points, 14.9 floor, 33.3 ceiling, 11 RB8 Slate Hits, and $8,500 average salary on 287 carries.

Cooper Rush has no 2025 Falcons salary-log row. Jahan Dotson’s 2025 work was in Philadelphia. Brian Robinson Jr.’s 2025 work was in San Francisco (92 carries, 4.3 YPC, two rushing TDs). Tagovailoa’s 2025 work was in Miami: 6.9 yards per pass attempt (22nd), 3.9% interception rate (32nd), 27th in EPA per play among 33 qualified quarterbacks.

Inside Scoop

Sharp’s preseason outlook is cautious on Atlanta: 7.5 wins, fourth in a division where three clubs sit at 7.5. Stefanski is the Coach of the Year hire asked to turn London, Pitts, and Bijan into a postseason offense for the first time since 2017. Sharp’s preseason snapshot lists Atlanta as an underdog in 15 games.

Week 1 against Pittsburgh is Cooper Rush, with Strand as QB2, after Tua and Penix were ruled out Friday. The other half of the ticket is a front that opens without Walker (season) and Pearce (eight games), with Za'Darius Smith questionable and Bowman out behind a nickel that now belongs to Avieon Terrell. Branch is the punt returner. London’s 2025 was 12 games after the PCL. Allgeier is in Arizona; Brian Robinson Jr. is the complement and KR1.

The 2025 Falcons went 7-9-1 ATS and 8-9 to the total. Totals stayed live in a 20.8 / 23.6 scoring split. Bijan’s 11 Slate Hits show how often his 2025 production reached an RB8-or-better weekly ceiling. London and Pitts are the spike weeks through the air. Dotson is a role bet behind that trio.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.