NFL 2026 PREVIEW: BALTIMORE RAVENS

Baltimore is 1-1 after a 41-23 win at Indianapolis and a 24-17 home loss to New Orleans. Sharp's preseason forecast was 11.5 wins, treating last year's 8-9 as incomplete. The 2025 Ravens went 2-5 in one-score games. Lamar Jackson played 13 games, including a three-game hamstring absence after Week 4, and finished with a career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game plus last among 36 quarterbacks in red-zone EPA per attempt (-0.53). Nnamdi Madubuike's neck ended his season after 1.5 games. That same preseason snapshot had Baltimore first in the AFC North behind a quarterback room Sharp ranks second, with an offensive line ranked 24th and a receiving corps ranked 25th.

Week 1 went the way Sharp's forecast anticipated: Jackson threw for 324 yards, Derrick Henry ran for 144 yards and three touchdowns, and Zay Flowers had 150 receiving yards before a hamstring injury. Week 2 flipped the script. Jesse Minter is the first-year head coach Sharp ranks 27th, and Declan Doyle is calling plays for the first time. The interior that opened the year is not the camp plan: Danny Pinter suffered a season-ending knee injury in August, Jovaughn Gwyn has started both games at center, John Simpson is at left guard, Vega Ioane is at right guard, and Roger Rosengarten is at right tackle. Protection is already the central issue heading into the Dallas international game. Ronnie Stanley is out with a toe injury, Flowers is questionable after a limited Friday return, and Madubuike practiced fully all week with no game designation after sitting Weeks 1 and 2.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Trey Hendrickson (EDGE), John Simpson (LG), Calais Campbell (DE/DL), Durham Smythe (TE), and Danny Pinter (C, season-ending IR).

Key Departures: Tyler Linderbaum (C) to the Raiders, Isaiah Likely (TE) to the Giants, Dre'Mont Jones (IDL) to the Patriots, Charlie Kolar (TE) to the Chargers, Alohi Gilman (S) to the Chiefs, DeAndre Hopkins (WR), Keaton Mitchell (RB) to the Chargers, Kyle Van Noy (EDGE), Jordan Stout (P) to the Giants, Patrick Ricard (FB) to the Giants, Cooper Rush (QB), Jake Hummel (LB) to the Texans, Joseph Noteboom (LT), Daniel Faalele (RT) to the Giants, David Ojabo (EDGE) to the Dolphins, Tylan Wallace (WR) to the Browns, Brent Urban (IDL), Taven Bryan (IDL), and Chandler Martin (LB) to the Eagles.

Jesse Minter takes over after John Harbaugh was fired. Doyle entered 2026 having never called plays in an NFL game; Ben Johnson retained play-calling duties while Doyle coordinated Chicago's offense in 2025. He now inherits Lamar Jackson plus an interior that lost Tyler Linderbaum to a three-year Raiders deal that made him the highest-paid interior lineman in the league. Daniel Faalele went to the Giants, and Joseph Noteboom also left. Baltimore signed Indianapolis backup Danny Pinter, who had 10 career starts, then used the 14th pick on Penn State guard Vega Ioane. Pinter suffered a season-ending knee injury in August. Jovaughn Gwyn has started both 2026 games at center, John Simpson is at left guard, Ioane is at right guard, and Roger Rosengarten is at right tackle. Sharp ranked the offensive line 24th entering the season, before that camp shuffle and before Ronnie Stanley's toe sidelined him for Dallas in an international game.

The pass-catching group thinned at the same time: Isaiah Likely signed with the Giants, Charlie Kolar joined the Chargers, and DeAndre Hopkins and Tylan Wallace exited, leaving Mark Andrews as the one established tight end with Durham Smythe signed as a blocker. Supporting departures sent Keaton Mitchell to the Chargers and pushed Cooper Rush out of the quarterback room.

Anthony Weaver arrives as the new defensive coordinator, inheriting a front seven that lost critical production. Dre'Mont Jones (7.0 sacks, 24 quarterback hits) left for the Patriots; Kyle Van Noy and David Ojabo exited the edge. Trey Hendrickson joins on the franchise's largest free-agent contract—a 17.5-sack 2024 leader who missed 10 games last season and Sharp flags as a bottom-five run defender among edges since 2020, a real tradeoff between elite pass rush and ground defense. Calais Campbell adds line depth.

Interior availability is a separate concern. Nnamdi Madubuike's 2025 neck injury limited him to 1.5 games, leaving his 2026 status uncertain through the preseason—but he practiced fully this week and carries no game designation for Dallas after missing Weeks 1–2.

Beyond the front seven, safety Alohi Gilman headed to the Chiefs and punter Jordan Stout followed Harbaugh to the Giants. The defense recorded 30 sacks in 2025 (28th in the league), a low baseline this retooled unit must improve upon.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Baltimore prioritized the interior offensive line in the first round, then used Day 3 to replace the skill positions that departed in free agency. Vega Ioane (pick 14, Penn State) brings over 2,000 college snaps mostly at left guard and Sharp's vote as the class's best interior prospect. Originally tagged to compete for left guard, he has opened 2026 at right guard between John Simpson and Jovaughn Gwyn. Zion Young (pick 45, Missouri) joined the edge to push Mike Green for reps opposite Trey Hendrickson.

The receiving group and tight end room consumed most of Day 3 capital. Ja'Kobi Lane (6-foot-4, pick 80) and Elijah Sarratt (pick 115) arrived as size depth behind Flowers and Bateman, but Lane's preseason wrist surgery sidelined him, leaving Sarratt and Devontez Walker as the depth options. Matthew Hibner (SMU, pick 133) and Josh Cuevas (Alabama, pick 173) were drafted as the tight end pair—Hibner as the receiver, Cuevas as the blocker behind Andrews and Smythe.

Specialists and secondary positions finished the class. Chandler Rivers (pick 162) profiles as a special-teams corner with nickel potential, while Adam Randall (pick 174, Clemson) sits injured reserve designated to return without immediate impact on the third-back or return roles. Ryan Eckley (Michigan State, pick 211) took over punting after Stout's departure. Rayshaun Benny (Michigan) and Evan Beerntsen (Northwestern) are developmental interior pieces.

Sharp Forecasts Baltimore Ravens with 11.5 Wins

Sharp's 11.5-win forecast projects a rebound from last year's 8-9. The over case centers on Lamar Jackson's health. He appeared in 13 games in 2025—including three weeks out with a hamstring injury after Week 4—and wasn't the same player when he returned. Yet he still posted 8.4 yards per attempt (third in the league), and Sharp ranked the quarterback room second. A healthy Jackson paired with Trey Hendrickson (who missed 10 games last season) gives this roster a real path to reverse last year's 2-5 one-score record.

The under case layers on age and unproven depth. Derrick Henry turns 32 this season. The pass-catching group behind Zay Flowers is untested without Isaiah Likely and Charlie Kolar. The offensive line carries unresolved questions: Tyler Linderbaum left for the Raiders, Danny Pinter suffered a season-ending knee injury in August, and Jovaughn Gwyn, John Simpson, and Vega Ioane now form an interior that wasn't the preseason plan.

Sharp's model installs Baltimore as favorites in 14 of 17 games (average -3.9 spread), a confident projection with little margin for error—especially paired with a first-year head coach ranked 27th. If Jackson's athleticism continues sliding toward last year's career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game, or if the interior fails him in the red zone again (he ranked last among 36 quarterbacks in red-zone EPA at -0.53, with 55% pressure inside the 20), then 11.5 becomes a ceiling rather than a baseline.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -3 days.

Warren Sharp’s schedule timing metrics slot Baltimore toward the disadvantaged half of the league in overall recovery time. The Ravens rank 21st in net rest edge with a season differential of minus-three days versus their opponents, a ledger defined by nine weeks carrying a non-zero rest differential. Sharp also ranks the club 13th in preparation timing, 19th in overall rest rank, and 21st in his short-week road games metric. On the helpful side, Baltimore ranks ninth in games off road Sunday Night or Monday Night Football and sixth in Sharp's negated bye rank.

The first four weeks are even rest: at Indianapolis, New Orleans at home, Dallas in an international game, then Tennessee at home. The first edge is plus-one at Atlanta on Sunday Night in Week 5. Then the schedule turns: minus-seven against Cincinnati at home in Week 7 and minus-seven at Buffalo in Week 8, a Thursday night date with Jacksonville in Week 9, and plus-three against the Chargers on Monday Night in Week 10. After minus-one at Carolina and minus-three at Houston, the bye in Week 13 sets up plus-seven against Tampa Bay, plus-one at Pittsburgh, even rest against Cleveland and at Cincinnati on Thursday, and plus-three against Pittsburgh to close.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Lamar Jackson (7 INT, 3 FL), Cooper Rush (4 INT, 1 FL), Derrick Henry (3 FL), Zay Flowers (3 FL), Isaiah Likely (1 FL). Takeaways: Marlon Humphrey (4 INT, 1 FR), Nate Wiggins (3 INT), Alohi Gilman (2 FR), Malaki Starks (2 INT), Roquan Smith (1 FR), John Jenkins (1 FR)

Ball security told the story of Baltimore's negative turnover margin last season. The offense committed 23 total giveaways, landing 21st in the league, largely due to loose footballs rather than reckless aerial decisions. Lamar Jackson was relatively careful through the air with seven interceptions across the campaign, but added three fumbles lost. In relief, Cooper Rush threw four interceptions and lost one fumble. The real damage surfaced on the ground, where the Ravens ranked 30th after losing 12 fumbles. Both Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers lost three fumbles apiece, while Isaiah Likely coughed up one before his offseason departure. The offense finished minus-three in turnover differential, 23 giveaways against 20 takeaways.

Defensively, Baltimore stayed near the league median by generating 20 takeaways, ranking 14th overall. That production was balanced between 11 interceptions (ranked 16th) and nine fumble recoveries (ranked ninth). Marlon Humphrey spearheaded the opportunism on the back end, hauling in four interceptions alongside one fumble recovery. Nate Wiggins proved his ball skills by securing three interceptions, while Malaki Starks contributed two picks. In the front seven, Roquan Smith and John Jenkins scooped up one fumble recovery each. The primary personnel loss from that takeaway cluster belongs to safety Alohi Gilman, who departed for the Chiefs after recovering two fumbles. With Humphrey, Wiggins, and Starks anchoring the secondary alongside Smith at linebacker, the defensive core remains well equipped to protect short fields and swing close contests.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Lamar Jackson 239 yards; Tyler Huntley 38 yards; Cooper Rush 16 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 37/571 ≈ 6.5% of shotgun plays; 7/333 ≈ 2.1% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Travis Jones (5), Tavius Robinson (4.5), Mike Green (3.5), Trenton Simpson (2.5)

Baltimore quarterbacks lost 293 yards on 45 sacks in 2025, ranking 21st. Lamar Jackson absorbed 239 of those yards, with Tyler Huntley losing 38 and Cooper Rush 16. Thirty-seven of the 45 sacks came from shotgun (571 shotgun plays) and seven from under center (333 plays), plus one from pistol. Warren Sharp ranks the 2026 offensive line 24th, and the red-zone numbers from 2025 are the warning: Jackson faced a 55% pressure rate inside the 20.

The defense recorded 30 sacks, 28th in the league. Dre'Mont Jones had 7.0 sacks and 24 quarterback hits before leaving for the Patriots. Among the names still in Baltimore, Travis Jones had 5.0, Tavius Robinson 4.5, Mike Green 3.5, and Trenton Simpson 2.5. Twenty-two sacks came with four rushers and seven with five. Cover 6 produced the highest raw count (6), with Cover 2 next at 5, then four apiece from Cover 4, Cover 0, and Cover 3.

Return Touchdowns

Kickoff returner Rasheen Ali: 30 returns for 763 yards.

Punt returner LaJohntay Wester: 16 returns for 198 yards.

Punt returns 16 for 198 yards; kickoff returns 74 for 1911 yards.

Baltimore generated yardage without a return touchdown. The kickoff unit fielded 74 kicks for 1,911 yards, and Rasheen Ali handled 30 of those for 763 yards. LaJohntay Wester returned all 16 punts for 198 yards. Baltimore did not allow a punt or kickoff return touchdown. Finding a bit more burst from Ali and Wester remains the 2026 special-teams question; Ryan Eckley already has the punting job Jordan Stout left.

Penalties

Offense: 55 penalties for 400 yards (#8). Most common: False Start (19), Offensive Holding (14), Delay of Game (5). Most flags in Shotgun (19), Under Center (3), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Mark Andrews (5), Ronnie Stanley (5), Roger Rosengarten (4).

Defense: 44 penalties for 346 yards (#9), including 3 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (10), Face Mask (5), Kickoff Short of Landing Zone (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (9), Cover 3 (9), Cover 0 (3). Most flagged players: Tyler Loop (8), Nate Wiggins (5), Kyle Hamilton (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Discipline was an asset. Baltimore drew 99 penalties for 746 yards, sixth-fewest in the league. The offense committed 55 for 400 yards (eighth-fewest), led by 19 false starts and 14 holdings. Shotgun accounted for 19 of the formation flags, under center 3, and pistol 1. Mark Andrews and Ronnie Stanley each drew 5 flags; Roger Rosengarten had 4.

The defense was assessed 44 penalties for 346 yards (ninth-fewest), including three offensive holdings on punt returns. Defensive pass interference led the list at 10, then face mask (5) and kickoff short of landing zone (4). Cover 1 and Cover 3 each had 9 flags; Cover 0 had 3. Tyler Loop led the club with 8 flags, then Nate Wiggins (5) and Kyle Hamilton (4).

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 728 plays, 44.6% success, 0.04 EPA/play (#12). Most efficient on early downs: DeAndre Hopkins (20 plays, 0.64 EPA/play), Tyler Huntley (15 plays, 0.47 EPA/play), Zay Flowers (88 plays, 0.34 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 177 plays, 37.3% success, -0.15 EPA/play (#29). Most efficient in the red zone: Lamar Jackson (13 plays, 0.50 EPA/play), Rashod Bateman (9 plays, 0.43 EPA/play), Derrick Henry (65 plays, 0.01 EPA/play).

First and second down sat 12th in EPA per play: 728 plays, 44.6% success, 0.04 EPA. Zay Flowers was the volume piece on those downs at 0.34 EPA per play across 88 plays (78 early-down targets in the receiving table). Inside the 20 the offense ranked 29th: 177 plays, 37.3% success, -0.15 EPA per play.

Lamar Jackson shows two different red-zone metrics. From play-by-play data, he posted 0.50 EPA per play on 13 credited plays. From Sharp's quarterback ranking, he ranks last among 36 quarterbacks at -0.53 EPA per attempt, with a 55% pressure rate inside the 20—a stark reversal from the prior year when he led the league in red-zone EPA. These numbers measure different scopes: play-by-play credits only individual Jackson plays, while Sharp's metric includes all 177 red-zone passing attempts by Baltimore. Derrick Henry's 65 red-zone carries averaged 0.01 EPA per play. The red-zone failure wasn't isolated to passing. Functional early downs and a broken finishing attack are what Declan Doyle inherited.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -9.5 (#31); they passed 45.2% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Lamar Jackson (45.6% success on 338 pass plays), Tyler Huntley (47.3% success on 74 pass plays), Cooper Rush (41.5% success on 53 pass plays).

On rushes: Derrick Henry (41.7% success on 307 rush plays), Keaton Mitchell (35.6% success on 59 rush plays), Lamar Jackson (55.2% success on 58 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Baltimore led the NFL in rush rate at 51.3% (490 rush plays, fifth in volume) and led in rushing yards per play at 5.47, with a 43.9% success rate that ranked 13th. Neutral-down pass rate over expected was minus-9.5, 31st, with a 45.2% pass rate on those snaps. When they did throw, 466 pass plays ranked 32nd in volume but 6.41 yards per play (10th) and 45.3% success (13th). Lamar Jackson's pass-play success was 45.6% on 338 plays; Tyler Huntley was 47.3% on 74. On rushes, Jackson was 55.2% on 58 plays and Derrick Henry 41.7% on 307. Doyle's 2026 offense will show whether that balance changes.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Baltimore produced 68 explosive plays for 2,171 yards, eighth in raw count: 43 passing explosives for 1,354 yards and 25 rushing explosives for 817. Zay Flowers was the deep threat with 19 explosive receptions for 635 yards; Derrick Henry had 17 explosive rushes for 533. DeAndre Hopkins (5 for 154), Isaiah Likely (4 for 134), Devontez Walker (4 for 126), and Keaton Mitchell (4 for 124) filled out the next tier, with Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews at three apiece. The largest raw volume against coverage came versus Cover 1 (18 explosives, 624 yards), then Cover 2 and Cover 3 at eight each.

The defense allowed 76 explosives for 2,227 yards, 31st in the league, mostly through the air: 64 completions of 20-plus for 1,868 yards against 12 explosive runs for 359. Cover 3 saw the largest raw count (24 for 701 yards), then Cover 1 (20 for 610). Those coverage breakdowns don't explain why the explosives happened—interior depth and edge pressure were the real problems in 2025. Hendrickson and Madubuike's 2026 availability matter directly to that baseline: Hendrickson led the NFL with 17.5 sacks in 2024; Madubuike was Baltimore's interior anchor before missing most of 2025 with a neck injury. Having both healthy is the difference between repeating a 31st-ranked performance or improving it. Stefon Diggs paced opposing receivers with four explosive catches for 102 yards; DK Metcalf, Ja'Marr Chase, Christian Watson, and Rome Odunze each had three.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Baltimore toggled between two primary groupings rather than living in one. Eleven personnel (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) led at 460 plays and 1.45 fantasy points per play, with Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and DeAndre Hopkins handling the bulk of those. Twelve personnel was close behind at 423 plays and 1.29 fantasy points per play as Isaiah Likely joined Andrews. Thirteen personnel added 60 plays at 1.50 fantasy points per play. Roughly half of those two major packages were two-tight-end looks: 423 plays of 12 personnel at 1.29 fantasy points per play versus 460 of 11 at 1.45.

Shotgun dominated formation usage at 571 plays (59.7%) and 1.46 fantasy points per play, while under center accounted for 333 plays (34.8%) at 1.28 and pistol for 52 plays (5.4%) at 1.32. On 53 RPO calls, the offense averaged 0.83 fantasy points per play.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #18; play-action rank #26 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Baltimore used pre-snap motion far more often than play action. Motion appeared on 515 plays (53.9%, 18th) and produced a 42.5% success rate, with 1.37 fantasy points per play when it was on the field versus 1.41 without it. Shifting before the snap was a staple, not a league-leading wrinkle.

Play action was the opposite profile: only 112 plays (11.7%, 26th) but a 56.2% success rate, 2.59 fantasy points per play with the fake against 1.23 without it. Motion produced less fantasy output when used; play action produced more.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Lamar Jackson's 2025 was defined by a Week 4 hamstring injury. He suffered it in the third quarter against Kansas City (37-20 loss), missed three weeks, and didn't start again until Week 9. He appeared in 13 games total and still averaged 8.4 yards per pass attempt—his third straight season at or above 8.0—with 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions, averaging 18.0 DraftKings points with an 11.5 floor and 29.0 ceiling. The first four weeks looked like 2024: 71.6% completions, 9.1 yards per attempt, 10 touchdowns, one interception. Over his final eight starts the completion rate dropped to 57.6% (28th), with seven touchdowns, six interceptions, and a league-high 15.8% inaccurate throw rate. His NFL+ season averages were -0.04 EPA per dropback and -2.6% completion percentage over expected. Inside the 20, last among 36 quarterbacks in red-zone EPA per attempt at -0.53 is the dropback metric, not the 13-play 0.50 EPA/play player note above.

Tyler Huntley filled in during the absence, logging four DraftKings-tracked appearances at 8.0 DraftKings points with a 2.8 floor and a 16.7 ceiling. He posted +0.12 EPA per dropback and +8.2% CPOE, but the explosive ceiling Jackson supplies was not there. Cooper Rush is gone. Jackson is working for a new head coach for the first time and a new coordinator for the first time since 2023. Warren Sharp ranked the quarterback room second entering the season.

Through two 2026 games Jackson is 38-of-56 for 559 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a 104.7 rating, plus 74 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown, including 324 passing yards in the Week 1 win at Indianapolis. Protection remains the central problem. Last year's line allowed 45 sacks and ranked 26th in pass-blocking efficiency, and Jackson's rushing fell to a career-low 26.8 yards per game. Sharp ranked the unit 24th before camp. Danny Pinter is on season-ending IR. Gwyn, Simpson, Ioane, and Rosengarten are the interior/tackle group that has started; Ronnie Stanley is out against Dallas with a toe injury. Keeping Jackson upright is still Doyle's job.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Warren Sharp ranks the receiving corps 25th entering 2026, and last year's numbers explain why the ranking is about depth rather than the lead receiver. Zay Flowers took another step: 86 catches, 1,211 yards, five receiving touchdowns, plus 62 rushing yards and a score on the ground. He commanded a 24.5% target share over 17 games, 118 targets, 9.9 air yards per target, and +39.9 Receiving EPA, with 78 early-down looks (28.4%) and 12 red-zone targets. Mark Andrews remains the red-zone tight end — 15 looks inside the 20 (26.8%) and 70 targets overall (20.6%) — but he is coming off a career-worst year in yards per route. Rashod Bateman crashed to 19 catches for 224 yards and two scores across 13 games, with 38 targets, a 12.0% share, nine red-zone targets, and -5.3 Receiving EPA. Devontez Walker ran the go routes on eight targets in five games at 25.8 air yards per target and +16.9 Receiving EPA.

Isaiah Likely (36 targets, six in the red zone) and Charlie Kolar (15) are gone, so Andrews is the only established pass-catching tight end. DeAndre Hopkins drew 39 targets at 13.6 air yards per target; Tylan Wallace had eight. Derrick Henry and Justice Hill still filtered 20 and 15 early-down looks. Durham Smythe arrives from Miami as a blocking specialist, with Matthew Hibner and Josh Cuevas as backup options. Ja'Kobi Lane is on injured reserve after wrist surgery; Elijah Sarratt remains the size bet behind Flowers and Bateman, with Devontez Walker keeping the vertical role. Through two games Flowers is 5-for-150-1 and missed Week 2; he is questionable for Dallas after a limited Friday. Andrews is 10-for-98 and Bateman 7-for-88-1. How Doyle changes Flowers's end-zone usage from last year's five targets is one variable in whether this room can outperform Sharp's preseason ranking.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Derrick Henry remained the focal point across all 17 games, with 307 rushing attempts, +1.1 rushing yards over expected per attempt, -0.6 Rush EPA, and a 42.0% NFL+ success rate on official carries. Sharp's recap had him at 5.2 yards per carry and 16 rushing touchdowns on 322 touches for 1,745 yards — the most total yards by a running back 31 or older since 2006. Keaton Mitchell supplied the change of pace in 12 games: 59 carries, +1.2 RYOE, +2.0 Rush EPA, 37.3% success. Near the goal line Baltimore leaned on Henry's frame: 63 red-zone rushes and two red-zone targets, 10 combined red-zone touchdowns. Mitchell had 14 red-zone rushes and one score; Justice Hill had three rushes and one target for two scores; Rasheen Ali had two rushes and one target. Henry also lost three fumbles across his first three games after putting one on the ground across 325 carries in 2024.

Mitchell is gone. Hill remains as the receiving complement and RB2, Ali as RB3 and a reserve kick-return option, and Adam Randall (fifth round, pick 174) is on injured reserve designated to return rather than competing for that third-back job right now. Warren Sharp ranked the running backs 10th entering the season, which is a Henry ranking more than a depth ranking — his unit ballots ranged from fifth to 16th because of age. He is in his age-32 season. Through two games he is 40-for-212 with four rushing touchdowns, including 144 yards and three scores in Week 1. The interior that blocked for him in 2025 is not the 2026 starting group: Gwyn, Simpson, and Ioane opened the year after Pinter suffered a season-ending knee injury, and Sharp ranked that line 24th before camp. Henry already produced into crowded boxes; whether this new line can protect him is still uncertain.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Derrick Henry 16 rush; Mark Andrews 6 (1 rush, 5 rec); Zay Flowers 6 (1 rush, 5 rec). Passing TDs: Lamar Jackson 21, Tyler Huntley 2. Defense TDs: Alohi Gilman (1 def TD). Special teams: Tyler Loop 30/34 FG, 44/46 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

Derrick Henry dominated Baltimore's scoring output with 16 rushing touchdowns. Lamar Jackson threw 21 touchdowns; Tyler Huntley added two. Mark Andrews posted six total scores on five receiving touchdowns and one rush. Zay Flowers matched that split: five receiving, one rushing.

Defensive and special teams scoring was situational. Alohi Gilman delivered the lone defensive touchdown before leaving for the Chiefs. Tyler Loop converted 30 of 34 field goals and 44 of 46 extra points, and the return units finished without a punt or kickoff touchdown. That 2025 mix now has to travel with a first-year staff and a red-zone passing game that ranked last in EPA per attempt.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Baltimore scored 4.1 points per game in the first quarter (24th) and 15.6 full-PPR fantasy points (24th), then 6.6 in the second (20th), 6.4 in the third (4th), and a team-high 7.8 in the fourth (7th). Fantasy points tracked the same climb: 19.8, 21.3, then 21.5.

The defense allowed 3.5 points in the first quarter (3rd-fewest) and 15.7 fantasy points (5th-fewest), then 6.9, 6.1, and 6.8 across the last three quarters. Opponents' fantasy points allowed rose to 24.7, 22.4, and 25.3.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #10, Secondary #8.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Roquan Smith led the club with 130 tackles; Dre'Mont Jones 7.0 sacks, Travis Jones 5.0 sacks, Tavius Robinson 4.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Roquan Smith: 5 TFL, 3 PD; Kyle Hamilton: 7 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 9 PD; Teddye Buchanan: 5 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 1 PD; Alohi Gilman: 1 TFL, 9 PD; Malaki Starks: 1 TFL, 2 INT, 4 PD; Nate Wiggins: 2 TFL, 3 INT, 14 PD; Dre'Mont Jones: 7 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 1 PD; Travis Jones: 9 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 2 PD; Tavius Robinson: 3 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 1 PD.

Baltimore's defense excels at linebacker play and secondary ball production. Roquan Smith paced the unit with 130 tackles and five tackles for loss; Teddye Buchanan and Trenton Simpson combined for 159 tackles, nine tackles for loss, and three sacks. Nate Wiggins had three interceptions and a team-high 14 passes defended; Marlon Humphrey led with four interceptions and 13 breakups. Kyle Hamilton logged 105 tackles, seven tackles for loss, a sack, and nine passes defended; Malaki Starks added two interceptions.

The 2025 pass rush was a health story as much as a talent story. Nnamdi Madubuike, the interior engine, played 1.5 games before a neck injury ended his season. Sharp's preseason chapter treated 2026 availability as growing optimism that remained up in the air; he was held out of Weeks 1–2, practiced fully this week, and has no game designation for Dallas. Dre'Mont Jones (7.0 sacks, 24 quarterback hits) left for the Patriots from the interior. Kyle Van Noy and David Ojabo are gone from the edge. Travis Jones returns after nine tackles for loss and five sacks. Hendrickson is the veteran edge addition, with Campbell added to the defensive line and Zion Young competing with Mike Green. Last year's 30 sacks ranked 28th, and the non-blitz pressure rate was a problem Sharp wanted that group to reverse. The 76 explosives allowed ranked 31st; that is the 2025 baseline, not a proof that the rush caused them.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Baltimore leaned on single-high and two-high structures: 217 snaps in Cover 3, 170 in Cover 1, and 131 in Cover 2. Standard zone packages sat near the league median, allowing 1.66 fantasy points per play in Cover 3 (13th) and 1.61 in Cover 2 (14th). Cover 1 was more generous at 2.04 fantasy points per play (24th) across 346 total fantasy points allowed. Cover 4 gave up 2.21 per play on 53 snaps (20th).

The stingiest rates came in smaller samples. Cover 0 allowed 2.98 fantasy points per play on 42 snaps, which still ranked eighth stingiest among Cover 0 units because that look is boom-or-bust league-wide. Cover 6 allowed 0.99 per play over 40 snaps and Cover 9 allowed 1.10 over 26 snaps, both ranking second. Those rates describe the fantasy points Baltimore allowed per snap in each shell.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Tyler Loop: 30/34 FG, 44/46 PAT.

Jordan Stout led with 53 punts (24 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Rasheen Ali: 30 returns for 763 yards.

Punt returner LaJohntay Wester: 16 returns for 198 yards.

Special teams tackler T.J. Tampa: 17 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Tyler Loop anchored the placekicking operation, converting 30 of 34 field goals (88.2%) and 44 of 46 extra points, with a long of 52 yards on his only try from 50-plus. Jordan Stout handled all 53 punts, none blocked, and pinned 24 inside the 20. Stout followed Harbaugh to the Giants; Ryan Eckley (Michigan State) was drafted in the sixth round and is the punter.

Rasheen Ali returned 30 kickoffs for 763 yards in a unit that totaled 1,911 kickoff return yards. LaJohntay Wester returned 16 punts for 198 yards. T.J. Tampa led coverage with 17 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs. Those are 2025 samples. Wester currently tops both return jobs (KR1 and PR1), with Ali as KR2. Adam Randall's college return work is on hold while he sits on injured reserve designated to return.

Penalty Analysis

The Sharp Football Preview penalty analysis gives Baltimore a B+ for Penalties & Discipline after measurable improvement from 2024. The Ravens produced the league's largest drop in offensive holding, including cutting road holdings by more than half, which matters on a nine-road-game calendar. They also posted the NFL's largest improvement in net penalty yardage per game versus opponents: from the steepest net deficit in 2024 to a plus-25-yard swing in 2025.

A primary driver was the defense surrendering fewer automatic first downs, with cuts in unnecessary roughness and roughing the passer. Baltimore went from the most-penalized team in fourth quarters in 2024 to a dramatic improvement last year, and the defense ranked first at drawing fourth-quarter flags on opposing offenses. The leftover issue is the opening quarter, where Baltimore ran a net penalty deficit before breaking even or winning the other three quarters.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 55 penalties for 400 yards (#8). Most common: False Start (19), Offensive Holding (14), Delay of Game (5). Most flags in Shotgun (19), Under Center (3), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Mark Andrews (5), Ronnie Stanley (5), Roger Rosengarten (4).

Defense: 44 penalties for 346 yards (#9), including 3 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (10), Face Mask (5), Kickoff Short of Landing Zone (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (9), Cover 3 (9), Cover 0 (3). Most flagged players: Tyler Loop (8), Nate Wiggins (5), Kyle Hamilton (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Pre-snap missteps accounted for a heavy share of the offensive flags. False starts led the roster at 19, offensive holding was next at 14, then five delays of game and four illegal formation calls. The passing game drew four offensive pass interference flags. Those five charted categories total 46 of the offense's 55 accepted penalties.

The defensive list was headed by 10 defensive pass interference flags. Face mask added five, defensive holding four. Kickoff penalties accounted for eight more: four for kicking short of the landing zone, four for kicking out of bounds. Those five charted categories total 27 flags; the defense's full total is 44.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Mark Andrews TE10, Zay Flowers WR18, Derrick Henry RB11, Lamar Jackson QB4.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Lamar Jackson (16.5 FPavg), Derrick Henry (16.4 FPavg), Zay Flowers (14.3 FPavg), Tyler Huntley (10.2 FPavg), Mark Andrews (7.7 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Baltimore saw Cover 3 on 134 charted plays (26.6%) and Cover 1 on 132 (26.2%), the two most common coverages. Zay Flowers led the scoring in both: 76 full-PPR points against Cover 1, where the offense averaged 2.09 fantasy points per play, and 46 against Cover 3 at 1.52 per play. Cover 2 showed up on 97 plays (19.3%), with Flowers again leading at 64 points while the offense generated 165 total at 1.70 per play. Cover 4 (54 plays, 10.7%) produced 2.37 per play, with Flowers at 20 points and Mark Andrews at 18.

Andrews led several smaller samples: 8 points against Cover 6 (21 plays, 1.50 per play), 7 against Cover 9 (15 plays, 1.84), and 8 against 2 Man (16 plays, 1.34, the lowest per-play mark in the tracked sample). Cover 0 was the efficiency spike — 33 plays, 3.48 fantasy points per play, 115 total — with Devontez Walker at 18 points and Flowers at 17. Those rates describe how this offense scored against each shell. Flowers still commands the volume across the standard looks; Andrews still owns the middle and the red zone. How that holds if protection stays as leaky as last year's 45 sacks is the 2026 variable on this side of the ball.

Skill adds: Durham Smythe (TE).

Skill losses: Isaiah Likely (TE) to the Giants, Charlie Kolar (TE) to the Chargers, DeAndre Hopkins (WR), Keaton Mitchell (RB) to the Chargers, Patrick Ricard (FB) to the Giants, Cooper Rush (QB), and Tylan Wallace (WR) to the Browns.

Skill draft picks: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Rd 3, USC; IR), Elijah Sarratt (WR, Rd 4, Indiana), Matthew Hibner (TE, Rd 4, SMU), Josh Cuevas (TE, Rd 5, Alabama), and Adam Randall (RB, Rd 5, Clemson; IR-DFR).

Zay Flowers is the volume receiver, Mark Andrews is the red-zone tight end, and Derrick Henry is still the back. Warren Sharp ranks Andrews TE10, Flowers WR18, Henry RB11, and Lamar Jackson QB4. Their 2025 HackingDFS DraftKings samples are historical archetypes, not weekly 2026 plays.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Mark Andrews played 17 games at $3,800 with a 7.7 DraftKings average, a 3.4 floor, a 15.7 ceiling, three Slate Hits, and 1.98 FP/$. The red-zone share (15 targets, 26.8%) is why the ceiling showed up; the 3.4 floor is why this is GPP/Cash rather than a pure cash piece.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Zay Flowers played all 17 games at $6,200 with a 15.3 DraftKings average, an 11.4 floor, a 23.6 ceiling, four Slate Hits, and 2.51 FP/$. The 118-target, 24.5% share is the weekly volume; the four Slate Hits are the tournament spike.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Lamar Jackson's 13-game card sat at $6,800 with an 18.0 DraftKings average, an 11.5 floor, a 29.0 ceiling, one Slate Hit, and 2.62 FP/$. The rushing floor is the cash argument; the 29.0 ceiling is the GPP one. The four missed games are the health tax on that sample.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Derrick Henry played 17 games at $7,200 with an 18.1 DraftKings average, an 11.2 floor, a 27.8 ceiling, five Slate Hits, and 2.55 FP/$. Five Slate Hits and a 16-touchdown rushing season are the tournament profile; 307 carries are the floor.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Rashod Bateman's 13-game card sat at $4,100 with a 4.3 DraftKings average, a 1.7 floor, a 9.3 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, and 1.04 FP/$. He is a 2026 starter (7-for-88-1 through two games), but the 2025 salary log has no cash floor.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Devontez Walker's five-game card sat at $3,000 with a 7.5 DraftKings average, a 4.0 floor, a 16.6 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, and 2.47 FP/$. Lane's IR and Flowers's Week 2 absence make the five-game sample more relevant than it was in August; zero Slate Hits still keep this GPP rather than GPP/Cash.

Inside Scoop

Baltimore may have finished 8-9 last season, but Sharp's preseason forecast was 11.5 wins and first place in the AFC North. That number bets that Lamar Jackson's September form is the real offense and that a three-game hamstring absence after Week 4 plus a 2-5 one-score mark made the standings incomplete. The defense allowed 23.4 points per game in front of a Front 7 ranked 10th and a secondary ranked 8th, and the pass rush spent most of 2025 without Nnamdi Madubuike. Trey Hendrickson, a healthier Jackson, and a first-year staff under Jesse Minter are the 2026 pieces that have to turn last year's close-game losses into an actual winning record.

The first two weeks already split the thesis. Baltimore opened with a 41-23 win at Indianapolis — Jackson 324 passing yards, Derrick Henry 144 rushing yards and three touchdowns, Zay Flowers 150 receiving yards before the hamstring — then lost 24-17 at home to New Orleans. Dallas in an international game is next on even rest, with Ronnie Stanley out (toe), Flowers questionable, and Madubuike practiced fully after sitting Weeks 1–2.

Hendrickson has to rush effectively, but the interior protecting him isn't the preseason plan: Gwyn, Simpson, and Ioane stepped in after Danny Pinter's August knee injury. Two games won't tell whether Henry at 32 is still the 1,745-yard back. But they've shown both versions of this team: Week 1 was the over case, Week 2 exposed the supporting cast problem.

That is why the Ravens remain one of the more interesting clubs in this series. Sharp's preseason snapshot installed them as favorites in 14 of 17 games at a -3.9 average line (-5.9 at home, -2.1 on the road), a real vote of confidence for a team coming off nine losses. They went 11-6 against the spread, which means they beat market spread numbers more often than not, and 11-6 to the over, which means their games cleared posted totals. Neither record proves the 8-9 understated how good they were; the 2-5 one-score mark and the Jackson/Madubuike absences are the football case. From a DFS perspective the 2025 profiles are similarly layered: Jackson, Henry, and Flowers all mixed playable floors with real ceilings on GPP/Cash cards, while Andrews's three Slate Hits at tight end were more tournament-shaped and Bateman's 2025 card stayed GPP. Those are historical samples rather than weekly 2026 recommendations. If Jackson stays healthy, Hendrickson delivers the pass rush they lacked last season, and Madubuike returns to form, last year's 8-9 finish should look like an interruption rather than a reset. Minter's first-year coaching won't derail them if those three pieces hold.

---

Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.