NFL 2026 PREVIEW: BUFFALO BILLS

Buffalo is 3-1 after beating Houston 36-31, Detroit 41-31, and the Chargers 24-16, then losing 29-26 to New England on October 4. Last season they finished 12-5 with the fourth-ranked offense (28.3 PPG) and a 12th-ranked defense (21.5 allowed), covering at 14-3 even as the over went just 9-8. Warren Sharp's preseason forecast was 10.5 wins and first in the AFC East. His betting snapshot installed Buffalo as a favorite in 14 of 17 games, with a -3.5 average line that swings to -4.8 at home and -2.3 on the road, against the ninth-hardest schedule on his board.

The roster foundation is still elite on one side and newly unproven on the other. Josh Allen's quarterback room ranks first, the offensive line third, and the running backs third. Joe Brady is the new head coach — Sharp ranks the job 28th because Brady has just four years as a play-caller — while the front seven dropped to 23rd after losing edge depth and the receiving corps landed at 20th despite adding D.J. Moore. The secondary is a separate rebuild after nickel Taron Johnson left. The first two games showed the offensive ceiling, Week 3 required overcoming five turnovers, and Week 4 exposed the defensive and injury questions the under case had already flagged.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Bradley Chubb (EDGE), Mike Danna (EDGE), Dee Alford (CB), and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (S); D.J. Moore (WR) (via trade).

Key Departures: David Edwards (LG) to the Saints, Joey Bosa (EDGE), Taron Johnson (CB) to the Raiders, Darius Slay (CB), Curtis Samuel (WR), DaQuan Jones (IDL), Larry Ogunjobi (IDL), Matt Milano (LB), A.J. Epenesa (EDGE), Mitchell Trubisky (QB) to the Titans, Ryan Van Demark (RT) to the Vikings, Reggie Gilliam (FB) to the Patriots, Taylor Rapp (S), Cameron Lewis (CB) to the Bears, Tre'Davious White (CB), Darnell Savage Jr. (S) to the Steelers, Brandin Cooks (WR), Jordan Phillips (IDL), Jordan Poyer (S), Matt Prater (K), Shaq Thompson (LB), Dane Jackson (CB), Gabriel Davis (WR), and Baylon Spector (LB).

Brady kept play-calling from the coordinator chair, so the offense still has his voice even with the title change. Pete Carmichael Jr. is the new coordinator, and D.J. Moore is the skill-group add via trade after Curtis Samuel, Brandin Cooks, and Gabriel Davis left. The line also turned over at left guard: Alec Anderson won the job in a Dawkins, Anderson, McGovern, Torrence, and Brown starting five after David Edwards signed with the Saints. Kyle Allen is the backup quarterback now that Mitchell Trubisky is in Tennessee.

The defensive reset is wider. Jim Leonhard coached Denver's defensive backs and pass game in 2024 and was promoted to assistant head coach in 2025 before Buffalo hired him as coordinator. He inherited a front seven missing Joey Bosa, A.J. Epenesa, DaQuan Jones, Larry Ogunjobi, and Matt Milano, and a secondary missing nickel Taron Johnson. Bradley Chubb signed a three-year deal and currently starts opposite Greg Rousseau, with Mike Danna the other notable edge add, C.J. Gardner-Johnson starting at safety, and Dee Alford the nickel with outside-corner work behind Christian Benford.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Buffalo's draft tells the same story as the free-agent moves: rebuild quickly where the depth is thin, not where the stars are still in place. They traded out of the first round and grabbed Clemson's T.J. Parker on Day 2 (pick 35) because he hits the strength-and-speed-to-power profile the Bills favor on the edge. Warren Sharp points out that outside Rousseau, Buffalo doesn't have a strong development track for that archetype, and Parker's uneven tape against top competition explains the slide.

Davison Igbinosun at 62 shows a different priority: best-available corner after Buffalo already had five under contract, which Sharp reads as a possible vote of no-confidence in 2025 first-rounder Maxwell Hairston. Day 3 is mostly developmental, with Jude Bowry (102) athletic but short on college starting reps, Skyler Bell (125) the receiver added behind Moore, and Kaleb Elarms-Orr (126) the off-ball linebacker Sharp calls the biggest addition at that level. Parker, Elarms-Orr, and sixth-round defensive tackle Zane Durant are the draft capital spent on the defensive front; Durant is already on injured reserve, and none of those picks is a proven interior run-stuffer. Seventh-round guard Ar'maj Reed-Adams (241, Texas A&M) made the initial 53-man roster. Kilgore and Pride Jr. are longer-term bets in the secondary. Tommy Doman Jr. won the 2026 punting job.

Sharp Forecasts Buffalo Bills with 10.5 Wins

Over Case: Sharp's bet is on continuity and health. Brady keeps play-calling from an offensive system that ranked second in points per drive in 2024 (2.90, 30.9 PPG) and stayed efficient in 2025 even with lower volume (2.64 PPD, tied for fourth at 28.3). Allen is the engine: fifth in EPA per play after ranking third in his MVP 2024, and he hasn't missed a game since 2018. Buffalo also gets an advantage in rest management that Sharp emphasizes for this group specifically. Since 2020, the Bills are 62-18 (.775) when they have no rest disadvantage versus just 15-13 when rest-disadvantaged. Sharp treats that split as meaningful, particularly with Buffalo ranked second in net rest this season.

Under Case: Two major regression concerns. First, Buffalo enjoyed unusually good health up front. Allen, Cook, and Shakir missed a combined zero games in 2025, and the starting five missed just four total. Sharp's preseason concern centered on OL health, Aaron Kromer's retirement, and uncertainty replacing Edwards; Anderson ultimately won the left-guard job. Second, and sharper, is the run defense problem that might get worse before it gets better. Buffalo ranked 28th in rushing yards allowed per game, 30th in yards per carry, 26th in yards before contact, and last after contact in yards gained past the line of scrimmage. They didn't add a dedicated run-stuffer inside, and the biggest linebacker addition was a Day 3 pick.

The first month has already tested both sides of that argument. The health concern showed up in Moore's shoulder, Benford's toe, and Week 4 injuries to Ed Oliver and Dee Alford. The run defense has gone the other way so far, allowing 464 rushing yards on 115 carries (4.0 per attempt) through four games.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club +14 days.

Warren Sharp’s timing metrics give Buffalo a plus-14 season net rest edge, second in the NFL, across seven weeks with a non-zero rest differential. Baseline rest still ranks 31st and prep rank 29th. The useful split is situational: tied for second in short-week road games, second in games off road Sunday Night or Monday Night Football, and first in negated byes.

The opener at Houston and the Thursday night home game against Detroit were both even rest, and Buffalo won both. Week 3's plus-3 cushion against the Chargers still required surviving five turnovers. New England at home in Week 4 was even rest and the first loss. Next is Monday night at the Rams on October 12, then a minus-1 rest game at Las Vegas. Coming out of the Week 7 bye, Buffalo gets its largest edge of the year, plus-7 at home against Baltimore. After that the calendar bunches: Monday night at Minnesota, minus-1 at the Jets, Miami at home, Kansas City on Thanksgiving, plus-3 at New England, Green Bay on the road, Chicago at home, plus-1 at Denver, plus-2 at Miami, and the Jets again in Week 18. The remaining rest advantages sit after the Rams trip and the bye.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Josh Allen (10 INT, 3 FL), James Cook (3 FL), Keon Coleman (1 FL), Khalil Shakir (1 FL). Takeaways: Christian Benford (2 INT, 2 FR), Terrel Bernard (1 INT, 2 FR), A.J. Epenesa (2 INT, 1 FR), Cole Bishop (3 INT), Maxwell Hairston (2 INT), Deone Walker (1 FR)

Buffalo's plus-one turnover margin last season — 19 giveaways, 20 takeaways — sat in the middle of the league. Allen accounted for all 10 interceptions and three of the nine fumbles lost. Cook lost three on the ground, while Coleman and Shakir each coughed up one.

The 2025 takeaway list was led by Cole Bishop (three interceptions), Christian Benford (two picks and two recoveries), and Terrel Bernard (an interception and two recoveries). Maxwell Hairston chipped in two interceptions, and A.J. Epenesa's two interceptions and a fumble recovery left with him. The first month already flipped that script: Buffalo is minus-2 in turnover margin after surviving five giveaways against the Chargers, then losing two more against New England, including Khalil Shakir's fumble late in the first half and Josh Allen's interception that ended the comeback.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Josh Allen 298 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 33/522 ≈ 6.3% of shotgun plays; 6/526 ≈ 1.1% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Greg Rousseau (7), Joey Bosa (5), Matt Milano (3.5), Ed Oliver (3)

The offensive line allowed 40 sacks (19th league-wide), with Allen losing 298 yards to those takedowns. Thirty-three of them came from shotgun (6.3% of all shotgun plays) versus six from under center (1.1%). Sharp still ranks the line third, and four of the five starters return after Edwards departed.

Buffalo's defense recorded 36 sacks, 20th overall. Rousseau led with seven, Bosa had five, Milano 3.5, and Oliver three. Four-man rushes produced 22 sacks and five-man rushes produced 12, the sixth-highest raw total in that bucket. Cover 2 generated the most sacks (13, fourth in count), followed by Cover 3 and 2-Man. Rousseau is the returning pressure piece after Bosa and Epenesa left, and the first month already restored a pass-rush story: six sacks and three forced fumbles through four games, including three straight two-sack games to open the year. Chubb has 1.5 sacks, and rookie T.J. Parker recorded his first career sack against New England.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 1 (#7) — Ray Davis (kickoff return).

Kickoff returner Ray Davis: 31 returns for 943 yards.

Punt returner Khalil Shakir: 16 returns for 124 yards.

Punt returns 30 for 194 yards; kickoff returns 66 for 1842 yards.

Buffalo scored one return touchdown and allowed none. Ray Davis supplied the kickoff score and 943 yards on 31 kickoff returns. The unit as a whole logged 66 kickoff returns for 1,842 yards. Khalil Shakir handled punts (16 for 124), part of 30 punt returns for 194 yards. The coverage side never gave up a return score.

Tyler Bass is the 2026 kicker, Tommy Doman Jr. won the punting job, and Greg Dortch is the punt returner.

Penalties

Offense: 58 penalties for 479 yards (#12). Most common: Offensive Holding (27), False Start (15), Offensive Pass Interference (3). Most flags in Shotgun (15), Under Center (10), Pistol (2). Most flagged players: Dion Dawkins (10), Spencer Brown (4), Josh Allen (3).

Defense: 43 penalties for 369 yards (#7), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Holding (9), Unnecessary Roughness (6), Defensive Pass Interference (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (9), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (4). Most flagged players: Cole Bishop (3), Tre'Davious White (3), Cam Lewis (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Buffalo was flagged 101 times for 848 yards, ninth-fewest in the league on a scale where first is the most disciplined. The offense took 58 flags for 479 yards (12th). Holding (27) and false starts (15) were the most common, and the formation split on the note is Shotgun 15, Under Center 10, and Pistol 2. Dion Dawkins led the club with 10 flags, then Spencer Brown 4 and Josh Allen 3.

The defense took 43 flags for 369 yards (seventh-fewest), including special-teams holdings that sit in that bucket. Defensive holding 9, unnecessary roughness 6, and defensive pass interference 4 were the most common. Cover 1 had 9 flags, Cover 3 had 5, Cover 2 had 4. Cole Bishop, Tre'Davious White, and Cam Lewis each had three.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 819 plays, 48.6% success, 0.12 EPA/play (#3). Most efficient on early downs: Jackson Hawes (15 plays, 0.88 EPA/play), Dalton Kincaid (35 plays, 0.85 EPA/play), Dawson Knox (37 plays, 0.57 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 199 plays, 48.2% success, 0.10 EPA/play (#5). Most efficient in the red zone: Josh Allen (27 plays, 0.83 EPA/play), Dalton Kincaid (9 plays, 0.73 EPA/play), Keon Coleman (12 plays, 0.28 EPA/play).

Buffalo stayed on schedule early (third in EPA at 0.12 across 819 plays, 48.6% success) and still finished drives (fifth in red-zone EPA at 0.10 across 199 plays). Tight ends occupied the most efficient early-down marks — Hawes 0.88 EPA per play on 15 plays, Kincaid 0.85 on 35, Knox 0.57 on 37 — and Allen's 0.83 on 27 red-zone plays was the top individual mark there. Shakir and Knox led Buffalo's 2025 red-zone target volume, while Coleman and Kincaid supplied additional efficiency. Moore's arrival adds another option rather than inheriting any one of those roles.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -3.0 (#19); they passed 49.8% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Josh Allen (46.6% success on 506 pass plays), Mitchell Trubisky (62.2% success on 37 pass plays).

On rushes: James Cook (45.6% success on 309 rush plays), Josh Allen (67.0% success on 94 rush plays), Ray Davis (41.4% success on 58 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Buffalo committed to the ground game like few other offenses. They led the league in raw rushing volume (522 plays, 49.0% rush rate, third league-wide) and maintained elite efficiency: 5.25 yards per play and 49.4% success, both second. The passing game wasn't a weakness—543 plays (26th) at 6.79 yards per play and 47.7% success (both eighth)—but Brady chose to lean run. In neutral situations, Buffalo passed 49.8% of the time despite a slightly negative PROE (-3.0, 19th), showing schematic preference rather than situation-driven necessity.

The individual splits tell the story. Allen was the outlier on the ground (67.0% success on 94 rush plays), while Cook handled the workload at 45.6% on 309 rush plays. Davis chipped in at 41.4% on 58. On pass plays, Allen posted a 46.6% success rate across 506 pass plays versus Trubisky's 62.2% on a 37-play sample. Whether this stays a run-first offense depends on how much Moore and a thinner defense pull Brady toward the air.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Buffalo generated 77 explosive plays for 2,275 yards, fourth in the league. Sixty-one were passing (1,759 yards) and 16 were rushes (516). Dalton Kincaid led the catchers with 13 explosives for 316 yards. James Cook led the ground game with nine rushes for 319. Khalil Shakir and Tyrell Shavers each had seven. The largest raw total against a coverage family was Cover 1 (21 for 577), then Cover 2 (14 for 442) and Cover 3 (14 for 348). Those are counts, not per-snap rates.

The defense allowed 51 explosives for 1,582 yards, eighth-fewest. Thirty-eight were passing, 13 rushing. Zay Flowers and Drake London each had four explosive catches. Derrick Henry had three explosive rushes for 125 yards. The largest raw total allowed came in Cover 1 (14 for 423), then Cover 3 (9 for 232) and Cover 2 (6 for 148). Cover 1 is where the chunk plays piled up on both sides of the ball. That does not, by itself, prove which shell was easier to beat.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Eleven personnel was the base: 746 plays at 1.54 full-PPR fantasy points per play, with Cook, Knox, Shakir, Coleman, and Shavers as the primary skill group. Twelve personnel was the heavier changeup (238 plays, 1.29 FP/play). Thirteen personnel appeared on only 53 plays and actually paid more (1.63). Those are separate packages, not proof that three tight ends are a scoring upgrade.

Formation split almost even: 526 under center (49.5%, 1.23 FP/play) and 522 shotgun (49.1%, 1.74). Pistol was 15 plays. RPOs were 75 plays (7.1%) at 0.94 FP/play, layered inside those alignments rather than a fourth formation. Shotgun paid more in fantasy points. That association does not make shotgun the passing identity of a team that ranked first in rush plays.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #8; play-action rank #14 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Buffalo used pre-snap motion on 60.3% of plays (642), eighth in the league. Those snaps succeeded 50.3% of the time and averaged 1.66 full-PPR fantasy points against 1.28 without motion. Play action was the scarcer lever: 152 plays, 14.3%, 14th in the league, but 59.9% success and 2.42 fantasy points per play against 1.35 without it. Motion was the down-to-down habit. Play action was the higher-paying changeup.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Buffalo asked Josh Allen to win with efficiency more than volume. His 25 passing touchdowns and 215.8 passing yards per game were his lowest since 2019, but he set career highs in completion rate (69.3%, fourth) and yards per attempt (8.0, fifth). The 5.4% touchdown rate was his sixth straight season above 5%, a streak no other quarterback matched over that span. Across 16 DraftKings-tracked games he posted +0.11 EPA per dropback and +1.5% CPOE, averaging 25.1 DraftKings points with a 17.7 floor, a 47.8 ceiling, and three Slate Hits.

The pass-play success rate was 46.7%, seventh in the league. Warren Sharp's nit is that Buffalo does not throw it more. Allen's third-down blitz rate jumped to 38.9% in 2025, and 13 of his 19 recorded sacks in that third-down sample came when he was not blitzed. Moore plus Brady as head coach, and a defense that looked worse on paper, was the directional case for more of the script going through the air.

The first month already supplied the volume-and-efficiency continuation. Through four games Allen is 79-of-119 for 1,039 yards, six passing touchdowns, three interceptions, 8.7 yards per attempt, and a 100.1 rating, plus 118 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. The first two games were explosive. The last two were less clean, and Allen's late interception against New England ended Buffalo's comeback.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The 2025 receiving room was a volume problem dressed up as balance. Buffalo wideouts averaged 10.6 receptions (18th) and 125.8 yards per game (22nd) with 11 touchdowns (23rd). They were targeted on 21.4% of routes, 27th. Allen averaged 7.9 yards per attempt to his wide receivers (15th) and a league-high 10.0 to his tight ends. Khalil Shakir led with 95 targets, a 23.3% target share, and 3.5 air yards per target. He gained 10 or more yards on 32% of his catches, the third-lowest rate among wide receivers with at least 40 receptions. Keon Coleman was the downfield option in 12 games (59 targets, 12.0 air yards per target, +9.2 receiving EPA) and still only 12 red-zone targets on a 15.4% share.

Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox combined for 98 targets. Kincaid's 12-game sample was the efficiency spike: +38.5 receiving EPA, 24.3% target share, 9.1 air yards per target, and 3.43 DraftKings points per red-zone target on nine red-zone looks, while Knox matched him at 49 targets over 16 games with 13 red-zone targets. Josh Palmer (37) and Tyrell Shavers (23) were the rest of the perimeter, Moore arrived as the trade add meant to lead that group, and Skyler Bell is the Day 3 complement behind Shakir, Coleman, Kincaid, and Knox.

The first month has started to answer how Moore changes the room, with Kincaid, Coleman, and Shakir all remaining prominent while Moore's availability has interrupted the integration. Through four games Kincaid has 15 catches for 270 yards and a touchdown, Coleman 14-217-1, Moore 12-178-1, Shakir 15-176, and Palmer three catches for 80 yards and two touchdowns. Moore has left two of the last three games with a shoulder injury. Against New England, Coleman broke out for 116 yards and a touchdown and Shakir had a season-high 82 yards, while Kincaid saw only two targets — and Brady said afterward that Kincaid needs to be more involved.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

James Cook led the NFL in rushing with 1,621 yards on 309 attempts. He became the first Bills rusher to do that since O.J. Simpson in 1976. The 5.2 yards per carry ranked second among backs with 100-plus attempts, and 74% of Buffalo's running-back carries went to him. He faced eight or more defenders in the box on 56% of attempts, the second-highest rate in the league, and still finished with 12 rushing touchdowns, 14 total, and 56 red-zone rushes. The NFL+ success rate on those official carries was 44.7% with +1.1 rushing yards over expected per attempt and -9.3 rushing EPA. Volume plus stacked boxes is the 2025 story, not open-lane efficiency.

Ray Davis (58 carries, 10 games, +0.4 RYOE/att) and Ty Johnson (four combined red-zone touchdowns on 23 opportunities) were the changeups. Davis had the kick-return score; Johnson was the scoring-area complement (19 red-zone rushes). Fullback Reggie Gilliam is gone, so depth remains the concern if Cook misses time.

Cook's heavy workload and rushing efficiency have carried directly into 2026. He is already at 421 yards on 70 carries — 6.0 yards per carry — with three rushing touchdowns. He had 75 yards and a touchdown on only 12 carries against New England because Buffalo spent much of that game chasing the score.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): James Cook 14 (12 rush, 2 rec); Josh Allen 14 rush; Dalton Kincaid 5 rec; Ty Johnson 5 (3 rush, 2 rec); Dawson Knox 4 rec; Keon Coleman 4 rec; Khalil Shakir 4 rec. Passing TDs: Josh Allen 25, Mitchell Trubisky 4. Defense TDs: Christian Benford (1 def TD, 1 FR TD). Special teams: Matt Prater 19/21 FG, 48/53 XP; Ray Davis 1.

Josh Allen and James Cook scored 28 rushing and receiving touchdowns between them. Allen threw 25 touchdowns and ran for 14. Cook had 12 rushing scores and two receiving. Mitchell Trubisky threw four before leaving. Behind them the scoring was spread: Dalton Kincaid 5 receiving, Ty Johnson 5 combined (3 rush, 2 rec), and Dawson Knox, Keon Coleman, and Khalil Shakir 4 receiving each.

Christian Benford scored twice, a defensive touchdown and a fumble-return touchdown. Ray Davis added the kick-return score. Matt Prater went 19-of-21 on field goals and 48-of-53 on extra points, then left. The 28.3 points per game ranked fourth. Through four games Buffalo already has 16 touchdowns — 10 rushing and six passing — so the 2025 identity of Allen and Cook finishing drives on the ground is the early 2026 story, while the passing scores have not risen yet.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Buffalo scored more as games went along. First quarter 5.0 points per game (10th) and 19.8 full-PPR fantasy points (ninth). Second quarter 7.4 (12th) with a weaker fantasy rank (21st). Third quarter 7.1 points (third) and 24.9 fantasy points (second). Fourth quarter led the league at 8.9 points and 28.2 fantasy points per game.

The defense was the inverse before halftime and dramatically better after it. First quarter allowed 4.8 (21st-fewest). Second quarter 8.2 (23rd). Third quarter allowed 2.5 points and 10.7 fantasy points, both first. Fourth quarter 5.9 (11th) and 19.8 fantasy points (12th). That second-half split is the 2025 pattern, led by the third quarter rather than a claim that Buffalo was the league's best defense once the half ended.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #23, Secondary #13.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Cole Bishop led the club with 85 tackles; Greg Rousseau 7.0 sacks, Joey Bosa 5.0 sacks, Matt Milano 3.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Cole Bishop: 4 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 3 INT, 7 PD; Jordan Poyer: 1 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD; Matt Milano: 7 TFL, 3.5 sacks; Terrel Bernard: 7 TFL, 1 INT, 3 PD; Dorian Williams: 1 TFL, 2 PD; Taron Johnson: 1 TFL, 4 PD; Greg Rousseau: 6 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 2 PD; Joey Bosa: 9 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 2 PD.

Greg Rousseau is the returning pass-rush piece after 7.0 sacks, 23 quarterback hits, and 6 tackles for loss, with Deone Walker adding 8 tackles for loss on the interior. Sharp had three Bills in the top 50 of pressure rate last year and only Rousseau returns, which is why Chubb now starts opposite him and Danna is the other veteran edge piece after Joey Bosa (5.0 sacks) and A.J. Epenesa left. Matt Milano (67 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and Shaq Thompson also left at linebacker, leaving Terrel Bernard (65 tackles, 7 TFL, 1 INT) and Dorian Williams (63 tackles) as the 2025 holdovers, with Kaleb Elarms-Orr the draft add at that level.

The secondary lost five of its top seven coverage-snap leaders, including nickel Taron Johnson (57 tackles). Tre'Davious White had 10 passes defensed and Jordan Poyer 70 tackles, while Cole Bishop remains the tackle and interception leader (85, 3 INT, 7 PD) and Christian Benford had 43 tackles, 2 INT, and 2.0 sacks. Maxwell Hairston started two games as a rookie, with two interceptions in the takeaway sample, and Sharp says the unit might hinge on whether he can take a starring role. Gardner-Johnson is starting at safety and Alford is the nickel, with Hairston still listed as the starting outside corner opposite Benford.

The first month has already tested that 23rd-ranked front seven and 13th-ranked secondary. Rousseau has been outstanding, but Buffalo still allowed 405 yards to New England and has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards through four weeks. Against New England the secondary was already without Benford (toe), then lost Alford (ankle), and Ed Oliver left with a knee injury. Buffalo still lists Benford, Alford, and Oliver in their normal starting roles, while Igbinosun was thrust into starting duties when Benford went down against the Chargers. Those Sharp ranks predate how Leonhard actually plays this group.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Cover 2 was Buffalo's stingiest look: 138 snaps, 1.22 fantasy points allowed per snap, first in the league. 2-Man (1.24, sixth), Cover 4 (1.52, seventh), and Cover 6 (1.18, fourth on 34 snaps) also graded cleanly on a per-snap basis. Cover 3 (119 snaps, 1.87, 22nd) and Cover 1 (91 snaps, 2.06, 25th) were the leakier shells. Cover 2 also produced the largest raw sack total on this defense. Those 2025 shell results belong to this unit rather than a weekly streaming map.

Cover 3 accumulated the most total fantasy points allowed (223) because it was the second-heaviest usage. Cover 1 was worse per snap. The 2026 implication is simply that Leonhard's first year starts from a defense that was much harder to throw on in two-high than in single-high, while the front seven that generated those Cover 2 sacks turned over around Rousseau.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Matt Prater: 19/21 FG, 48/53 PAT.

Mitch Wishnowsky led with 38 punts (18 inside the 20); also punted: Cameron Johnston 7 (2 inside the 20), Brad Robbins 4 (1 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Ray Davis: 31 returns for 943 yards.

Punt returner Khalil Shakir: 16 returns for 124 yards.

Special teams tackler Joe Andreessen: 21 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Matt Prater converted 19 of 21 field goals (90.5%) and 48 of 53 extra points, with a long of 52 yards and one make from 50-plus. He is gone. The 2025 team punting total was 49 punts and 21 inside the 20: Mitch Wishnowsky 38 and 18, Cameron Johnston seven and two, Brad Robbins four and one.

Tyler Bass is the 2026 kicker and is 6-for-6 on field goals through four games, while Tommy Doman Jr. won the punting job with nine punts at 48.6 gross and four inside the 20. Buffalo still lists Ray Davis first on the kickoff-return depth chart, but Greg Dortch has handled most of the actual work through four games, returning 12 kicks for 316 yards to Davis's four for 111. Dortch has also handled eight punts. Joe Andreessen led special-teams tackling with 21 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Penalty Analysis

The Sharp Football Preview penalty analysis gives Buffalo a B for Penalties & Discipline. The offense accounted for 41.5% of the team's flags, below the 47.7% league average, and cut its penalty-per-half rate by about 40% from the first half to the second. That composure showed up as a top-five beneficiary of second-half automatic first downs via penalty and a top-10 beneficiary of automatic first downs on third down. The other side of the same split is that Buffalo ranked 29th in pre-snap penalty average, the fourth-most pre-snap flags per game.

The Bad is holding, special teams, and a defense that stopped drawing flags. Offensive holding was 29.0% of Buffalo's penalties against a 19.2% league average, third in holding flags per game. Special teams finished among the five most-penalized units. The defense generated the lowest penalty-per-game average on opposing offenses in the league, nearly a 50% drop from 2024, and ranked last in drawing offensive holding at under half the league average. Net negative penalty differential per game ranked third. That is the hidden-yardage problem.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 58 penalties for 479 yards (#12). Most common: Offensive Holding (27), False Start (15), Offensive Pass Interference (3). Most flags in Shotgun (15), Under Center (10), Pistol (2). Most flagged players: Dion Dawkins (10), Spencer Brown (4), Josh Allen (3).

Defense: 43 penalties for 369 yards (#7), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Holding (9), Unnecessary Roughness (6), Defensive Pass Interference (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (9), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (4). Most flagged players: Cole Bishop (3), Tre'Davious White (3), Cam Lewis (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Offensive holding led all categories with 27 accepted flags. False starts were 15. The rest of the offensive list was three offensive pass interference calls, three illegal formations, and two intentional grounding penalties. Special teams added four offensive holding flags on punt returns.

Defensive holding was the most common flag on that side of the ball (9), then unnecessary roughness (6), defensive pass interference (4), and two illegal blindside blocks. Cover 1 had the most defensive flags (9). Those are the counts.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Dalton Kincaid TE12, D.J. Moore WR20, James Cook RB6, Josh Allen QB1.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Josh Allen (22.8 FPavg), James Cook (17.8 FPavg), Dalton Kincaid (10.5 FPavg), Khalil Shakir (10.2 FPavg), Keon Coleman (8.4 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Buffalo faced Cover 1 on 198 charted plays (33.4%), the heaviest share, and scored 357 full-PPR fantasy points at 1.80 per play. Khalil Shakir led that shell with 38 points, Dalton Kincaid 34. Cover 3 (148 plays, 25.0%) produced 258 points at 1.74, led by Dawson Knox (38) and Shakir (31). Cover 2 (121 plays, 20.4%) was the higher per-play rate at 2.27, and Kincaid's 50 points were the coverage high on the table.

The smaller samples paid more per play: Cover 6 at 2.90, Cover 0 at 2.87, 2-Man at 2.68, Cover 4 at 2.43. Shakir led four shells in cumulative scoring. Kincaid led Cover 2 and Cover 6. Josh Allen led Cover 0 (16 points). Those are 2025 results for this offense. Moore's Chicago card is a 2026 addition rather than a coverage-split inherit.

Skill adds: D.J. Moore (WR) (via trade).

Skill losses: Curtis Samuel (WR), Mitchell Trubisky (QB) to the Titans, Reggie Gilliam (FB) to the Patriots, Brandin Cooks (WR), and Gabriel Davis (WR).

Skill draft picks: Skyler Bell (WR, Rd 4, UConn).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Josh Allen's 16-game DraftKings sample is a 17.7 floor, 47.8 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $7,400, and 3.40 FP/$. That is both a playable floor and tournament spike, including 14 rushing touchdowns next to 25 passing scores.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: James Cook's 17-game card is a 12.7 floor, 29.5 ceiling, eight Slate Hits, $6,400, and 3.88 FP/$. He led the NFL with 1,621 rushing yards on 309 carries and added 14 total touchdowns.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Ray Davis's 10-game card is a 4.9 average, 0.8 floor, 9.9 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $4,100, and 1.16 FP/$. Backup and return work with a 9.9 ceiling are the 2025 sample.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Dalton Kincaid's 12-game sample is a 6.4 floor, 19.8 ceiling, four Slate Hits, $4,300, and 2.68 FP/$. Plus-38.5 receiving EPA and 3.43 DraftKings points per red-zone target are the 2025 tight-end card.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Khalil Shakir's 16-game card is a 7.4 floor, 17.9 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $5,300, and 2.01 FP/$. Ninety-five targets and 3.5 air yards per target are a volume floor.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Keon Coleman's 12-game card is a 9.4 average, 5.2 floor, 13.6 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $5,100, and 2.01 FP/$. The 5.2 floor and one Slate Hit are the 2025 sample.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Dawson Knox's 16-game card is a 6.5 average, 3.5 floor, 17.5 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $2,800, and 2.24 FP/$. Cheap tight-end volatility with a 17.5 ceiling.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: D.J. Moore's last club was Chicago. His 2025 card there is 17 games, 85 targets, 15.3% target share, 11.5 air yards per target, +8.9 receiving EPA, a 3.1 floor, 21.9 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $5,300, and 1.78 FP/$. That is Chicago 2025 rather than a Buffalo depth-chart promise.

Inside Scoop

Buffalo finished 12-5, extending a seven-year run of 10-win seasons and playoff appearances, and Warren Sharp's preseason forecast was 10.5 wins and first in the AFC East. He is betting that Josh Allen and the offense Joe Brady already built are still the foundation. Allen has not missed a game since 2018, and Brady keeps play-calling after a 2025 attack that finished tied for fourth in points. What makes 12-5 incomplete is the coaching change itself: ownership moved on from Sean McDermott after another Divisional Round exit, Sharp ranks the new head-coach job 28th, and the front seven and secondary turned over around Greg Rousseau and Cole Bishop.

The first month already showed both sides of that bet. Buffalo exploded to 2-0 behind Allen and the offense, then survived five turnovers while the defense held the Chargers to 16 points. The first division game went the other way: a 29-26 loss after New England piled up 405 yards, more defensive injuries, and two Buffalo turnovers. Now the 3-1 Bills go to the Rams on Monday night, with the remodeled defense and a less-clean offense as the open questions rather than a one-seed hypothetical.

That makes the Bills one of the more important clubs in this series. Sharp's preseason betting snapshot installed them as favorites in 14 of 17 games with a -3.5 average line, -4.8 at home and -2.3 on the road. Buffalo also finished an exceptional 14-3 against the spread despite a 12-5 straight-up record, while 9-8 to the over sat on the total. The 2025 DFS cards split the same way the roster does: Allen, Cook, and Kincaid showed floor-plus-ceiling samples, Shakir a volume floor, Coleman, Knox, and Davis tournament-shaped volatility, and Moore's Chicago card the same spike profile. Those are historical archetypes rather than weekly 2026 recommendations, and four games have already shown both the future Super Bowl roster and the remodeled-defense problem. Monday night in Los Angeles is the next test of which one this team actually is.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.