NFL 2026 PREVIEW: CHICAGO BEARS

The Chicago Bears enter the 2026 campaign looking to build on an 11-6 finish from the previous season. Warren Sharp’s forecast projects 9.5 wins for the team, placing them third in their division. This outlook arrives alongside a mid-pack Strength of Schedule ranked 12th overall, where a lower number indicates an easier path. Unit evaluations highlight a significant contrast in roster construction for the upcoming year. The offensive line stands out as the strongest positional group, ranking sixth league-wide. Conversely, the front seven represents the weakest link, sitting at number 30. These structural disparities will define the team's ceiling as they navigate a balanced slate of opponents. Balancing elite trench play against defensive front limitations remains the central narrative for this preview.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Clark Phillips III (CB, via trade), Devin Bush (LB), Kalif Raymond (WR), and Cameron Lewis (CB); Garrett Bradbury (C) (via trade); Coby Bryant (S); James Lynch (DL) and Jack Sanborn (LB).

Key Departures: D.J. Moore (WR) to the Bills (trade), Tremaine Edmunds (LB) to the Giants, Kevin Byard (S) to the Patriots, Jaquan Brisker (S) to the Steelers, C.J. Gardner-Johnson (S) to the Bills, Gervon Dexter Sr. (IDL) to the Falcons, Ryan Bates (OL), Nahshon Wright (CB) to the Jets, Durham Smythe (TE) to the Ravens, Andrew Billings (IDL) to the Cardinals, Chris Williams (IDL) to the Falcons, Devin Duvernay (WR) to the Cardinals, Olamide Zaccheaus (WR) to the Falcons, Jonathan Owens (S) to the Colts, Travis Homer (RB) to the Steelers, Zah Frazier (CB), Ty Summers (LB), Ricky Stromberg (C), and Scott Daly (LS) to the Buccaneers.

Status: Coby Bryant — IR; Kyler Gordon — PUP; Noah Sewell — PUP; Shemar Turner — PUP; Austin Booker — groin, Week 1 availability uncertain (as of Sept. 1, 2026). Sharp’s Front 7 rank (#30) predates the Aug. 30 Gervon Dexter Sr. trade to Atlanta.

The Chicago Bears enter Ben Johnson’s second season with a reshuffled offensive infrastructure. Press Taylor replaces Declan Doyle as offensive coordinator, while Ben Johnson remains Chicago’s offensive play-caller — Taylor helps build and game-plan the offense around Johnson’s play-calling structure. The most glaring void is the departure of wide receiver D.J. Moore, who was traded to the Bills (along with a 2026 fifth-round pick, in exchange for a 2026 second-rounder), stripping the passing game of its primary perimeter threat. To offset this loss and bolster the interior, the team acquired center Garrett Bradbury via trade, a move intended to stabilize the line for a unit Sharp ranks as the sixth-strongest Offensive Line. Wide receiver Kalif Raymond joins the roster as a free-agent add, providing slot depth, but the offense must now generate production without the established target share Moore previously commanded. This churn suggests a transition period where the coaching staff must identify new go-to options while relying on the returning holdovers to fill the statistical vacuum left by Moore’s exit.

Defensively, the Bears face a steep rebuild after losing key starters in the secondary, linebacker corps, and interior line. Safety Kevin Byard departed for the Patriots, Jaquan Brisker left for the Steelers, C.J. Gardner-Johnson signed with the Bills, linebacker Tremaine Edmunds joined the Giants, and interior lineman Gervon Dexter Sr. was traded to Atlanta on Aug. 30. Sharp’s Front 7 grade was published before the Dexter trade. Free-agent linebacker Devin Bush and cornerback Clark Phillips III (acquired in the Dexter deal) are among the pieces asked to help fill those holes, with Cameron Lewis also arriving in the secondary. Safety Coby Bryant remains a headline addition but opened September on Reserve/Injured. With Dennis Allen returning for his second season as defensive coordinator, the staff must integrate available new pieces quickly amid that churn. The overall roster turnover indicates a team in flux, relying on mid-pack schedule strength to mask growing pains during this transitional year.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

The Chicago Bears addressed their most glaring defensive vulnerability by selecting safety Dillon Thieneman from Oregon with the twenty-fifth overall pick, a move Sharp draft analyst Ryan McCrystal views as one of the steals of Day 1. With Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker both listed as departures, the secondary required immediate reinforcement, and Thieneman offers the versatility to fill either role as Chicago rebuilds the safety room after free-agent churn and with Coby Bryant on Reserve/Injured. Sharp notes that Thieneman displayed elite range as a ball hawk during his time at Purdue before his Oregon season. Oregon’s official player bio lists 96 total tackles in 15 games last season (Sports-Reference matches that 96); he also missed only 7.5 percent of his attempts, the second-lowest rate among seventy-four qualifying safeties in the Sharp draft note. His ability to play in the box complements a defense that utilized two-high coverages forty percent of the time last year, allowing him to thrive in Dennis Allen’s scheme while providing the range needed to replace the lost production in the back end.

On the offensive side, the Bears prioritized interior stability by drafting center Logan Jones from Iowa in the second round, adding competition beside trade acquisition Garrett Bradbury. Bradbury is listed ahead of Jones on the most recent depth chart, so the center job remains a live battle rather than a settled Jones-over-Bradbury hierarchy. This selection supports the unit ranked sixth strongest by Sharp. The team continued to add depth on Day Two by selecting tight end Sam Roush from Stanford and wide receiver Zavion Thomas from LSU in the third round, followed by cornerback Malik Muhammad from Texas in the fourth round and linebacker Keyshaun Elliott from Arizona State in the fifth round, then defensive lineman Jordan van den Berg from Georgia Tech in the sixth round (pick 213). These later picks provide rotational options and special teams contributors for a roster aiming to improve upon its eleven-win campaign from the prior season.

Sharp Forecasts Chicago Bears with 9.5 Wins

Sharp projects the Chicago Bears to finish with 9.5 wins, a figure that invites scrutiny given the team’s reliance on favorable variance during their 11-6 campaign in 2025. The previous season featured the ninth-easiest strength of schedule, which helped Chicago secure eight victories against non-playoff opponents while going 3-2 against postseason teams. However, the 2026 slate presents a stiffer challenge, ranked 12th in the league according to Sharp’s scale (a lower number indicates an easier path). Defensive metrics from 2025 reveal significant vulnerabilities masked by ball-hawking success; while the unit led the NFL with 33 forced turnovers, it ranked 23rd in points allowed per game at 24.4 and 20th in points allowed per drive at 2.22. The defense also surrendered the 29th-most yards per play at 6.0 and the 29th-most yards per game at 361.8, while generating pressure at the 29th-ranked rate. If turnover production regresses toward the mean without corresponding improvements in yardage and scoring prevention, the defensive floor could collapse.

Offensive efficiency gains were driven by Caleb Williams’ dramatic sophomore improvement and head coach Ben Johnson’s aggressive decision-making. Williams jumped from 32nd in EPA per play among qualified quarterbacks in 2024 to 15th in 2025, while his sack rate improved from 35th to fourth best in the league. Johnson supported this growth by ranking first in throw rate on passes traveling 10 or more air yards and fourth in EPA on fourth-down decisions. Yet Sharp also flags extreme fumble luck in his forecast frame: Chicago lost only four of 16 offensive fumbles and recovered seven of 17 opponent fumbles by that methodology. That Sharp recovery count sits beside a different Hacking DFS / nflverse takeaway table below, which credits the Bears with 10 fumble recoveries among 33 takeaways. With either frame, regression toward average recovery rates would pressure the Bears to sustain passing efficiency and schematic edges against a tougher schedule.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Sharp’s timing metrics place the Chicago Bears at the very top of the league for net rest edge, ranking first out of 32 teams with a cumulative advantage of plus-15 days. This overall benefit is driven by seven specific weeks where the team holds a labeled rest edge, including substantial buffers in November and December. The weekly breakdown shows a plus-seven day advantage in Week 11 against New Orleans, followed by plus-three day edges in Weeks 8, 13, and 17, as well as a plus-one day edge in Week 16. While the net total is elite, the standard rest rank sits at 19th, indicating that the aggregate advantage comes from specific high-value windows rather than a consistent weekly surplus across the entire slate.

The Bears also secure the number one rank for avoiding short-week road games and for staying off road prime-time slots. Their preparation rank lands at 13th, while the negated bye rank is first, suggesting the bye week placement does not cancel out other scheduling benefits. Despite these structural advantages, the team faces isolated deficits, such as a minus-one day rest edge in Week 4 against New York and Week 9 against Tampa Bay. These specific dips contrast with the broader trend of favorable recovery time, particularly during the second half of the season when the plus-seven and plus-three margins appear most frequently.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Rank direction: for giveaways / INT thrown / fumbles lost, #1 = fewest; for takeaways / INT / fumbles recovered, #1 = most.

Giveaways: Caleb Williams (7 INT, 1 FL), D'Andre Swift (2 FL), D.J. Moore (1 FL). Takeaways: Nahshon Wright (5 INT, 3 FR), Kevin Byard (7 INT), Tremaine Edmunds (4 INT, 1 FR), Tyrique Stevenson (1 INT, 2 FR), Gervon Dexter Sr. (2 FR), C.J. Gardner-Johnson (2 INT)

Chicago’s 2025 turnover profile was historically favorable: a league-low 11 giveaways paired with a league-high 33 takeaways for a +22 margin. That combination made the Bears the first team since the 2011 49ers to lead the NFL in takeaways while committing the fewest giveaways. The 11 giveaways included 7 interceptions thrown and 4 fumbles lost. Caleb Williams accounted for most of the passing errors with 7 interceptions and 1 fumble lost, while D'Andre Swift contributed 2 fumbles lost and D.J. Moore added 1 fumble lost before his departure.

Under the Hacking DFS / nflverse framework, Chicago’s 33 takeaways consisted of 23 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. Sharp’s forecast separately tracks seven recoveries on 17 opponent fumbles under his methodology. Nahshon Wright led the secondary with 5 interceptions and 3 fumble recoveries, while Kevin Byard recorded 7 interceptions and Tremaine Edmunds added 4 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. Wright, Byard, Edmunds, and C.J. Gardner-Johnson (2 INT) are all listed among 2026 departures, so the ball-hawking volume from 2025 does not automatically carry forward. Returning corner Tyrique Stevenson (1 INT, 2 FR) plus newer pieces such as Devin Bush and Clark Phillips III are part of the group asked to replace that production.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Caleb Williams 165 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 18/552 ≈ 3.3% of shotgun plays; 6/521 ≈ 1.2% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures.

Sack leaders (defense): Montez Sweat (10), Gervon Dexter Sr. (6), Austin Booker (4.5), C.J. Gardner-Johnson (3)

The Chicago Bears offensive line allowed only 24 total sacks in 2025, ranking third fewest in the league. Quarterback Caleb Williams lost 165 yards on those sacks. When breaking down the data by formation-play shares, which include run plays in the denominator, the Bears allowed sacks on 3.3% of their shotgun plays, with 18 sacks occurring across 552 such plays. Under center they surrendered six sacks over 521 plays for a 1.2% share. These are sack counts and formation-play shares, not pressure rates.

On the defensive side of the ball, the 2025 pass rush was headlined by Montez Sweat, who recorded a team-high 10 sacks. Gervon Dexter Sr. contributed six sacks, while Austin Booker added 4.5 and C.J. Gardner-Johnson chipped in with three. Those Dexter and Gardner-Johnson totals remain part of the 2025 ledger, but both players are 2026 departures — Dexter via the Aug. 30 trade to Atlanta, Gardner-Johnson via free agency to Buffalo. Sweat and Booker return as the clearest carryover pieces from that sack group.

Return Touchdowns

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 1 (#19) — Charlie Jones (kickoff return).

Punt returns 21 for 231 yards; kickoff returns 68 for 1792 yards.

The Chicago Bears did not score any touchdowns on punt or kickoff returns during the 2025 season, a result that placed them in a tie for thirteenth in the league. Their special teams units recorded 231 yards across 21 punt returns and 1,792 yards on 68 kickoff returns.

On the defensive side of special teams, the Bears allowed one return touchdown to opponents, which ranked nineteenth in the NFL. That score came on a kickoff return by Charlie Jones.

Penalties

Offense: 77 penalties for 565 yards (#32). Most common: False Start (27), Offensive Holding (19), Intentional Grounding (5). Most flags in Shotgun (19), Under Center (12), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Darnell Wright (12), Theo Benedet (7), D.J. Moore (6).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 43 penalties for 405 yards (#7), including 1 special-teams punt-return holding — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Roughing the Passer (9), Defensive Pass Interference (7), Illegal Use of Hands (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (5), Cover 3 (4). Most flagged players: Nahshon Wright (5), Andrew Billings (5), Nick McCloud (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags. Under this Hacking DFS / nflverse split, offense is 77/120 ≈ 64.2% of the displayed total.

The Chicago Bears offense struggled with discipline last season, ranking last in the league with 77 penalties that cost the team 565 yards. False starts were the most frequent infraction with 27 occurrences, followed by 19 instances of offensive holding and five intentional grounding calls. These flags appeared most often when the unit operated out of the shotgun formation, which accounted for 19 penalties, while playing under center resulted in 12 flags and the pistol formation drew just one. Individual accountability was an issue on the line, as Darnell Wright led the team with 12 personal penalties, Theo Benedet was called for seven, and former wide receiver D.J. Moore accrued six flags before his departure.

On the other side of the ball, the defense-side nflverse bucket finished seventh fewest with 43 penalties for 405 yards — a total that includes one special-teams punt-return holding rather than a filtered scheme-defense count. Offense accounted for 64.2% of the 120 flags in this table methodology.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 833 plays, 45.6% success, 0.09 EPA/play (#6). Most efficient on early downs: Luther Burden III (49 plays, 0.51 EPA/play), Colston Loveland (57 plays, 0.38 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 180 plays, 45.0% success, 0.03 EPA/play (#14). Most efficient in the red zone: Caleb Williams (18 plays, 0.33 EPA/play), Colston Loveland (16 plays, 0.29 EPA/play).

The Chicago Bears demonstrated strong efficiency on early downs during the 2025 season, generating a positive expected points added value of 0.09 per play across 833 plays. This performance ranked sixth in the league, supported by a 45.6% success rate that helped sustain drives before facing third-down pressure. Luther Burden III was the most efficient option in these situations, recording 0.51 EPA per play over 49 early-down plays, while Colston Loveland also contributed significantly with 0.38 EPA per play across 57 plays. These metrics describe 2025 early-down production from the offense’s key targets. Sharp’s #6 offensive line rank is a separate 2026 unit grade.

Inside the red zone, the team maintained a respectable level of productivity with 180 plays resulting in a 45.0% success rate and an EPA per play of 0.03, which placed them 14th in the NFL. Caleb Williams led the way in these high-leverage moments, posting 0.33 EPA per play over 18 red-zone plays, indicating his ability to execute effectively near the goal line. Colston Loveland remained a vital weapon in tight spaces as well, delivering 0.29 EPA per play across 16 red-zone plays. While the ranking dropped slightly compared to their early-down dominance, the Bears still converted opportunities at a solid clip, relying on the connection between Williams and his primary receivers to finish drives despite the departure of several roster members.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -2.3 (#18); they passed 51.6% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): Caleb Williams (43.3% success on 594 pass plays).

On rushes (qualifying 2025 PBP rush plays — not official NFL attempt totals): D'Andre Swift (48.0% success on 223 qualifying PBP rush plays), Kyle Monangai (46.2% success on 171 qualifying PBP rush plays), Caleb Williams (56.1% success on 66 qualifying PBP rush plays).

The Chicago Bears leaned on a ground-heavy approach during the 2025 season, ranking third in the league with 496 rush plays while posting a robust 48.8% success rate on those runs. This commitment to the run game resulted in an impressive 4.98 yards per rush play, which also placed the team third in the NFL. In contrast, the passing attack was utilized less frequently, accounting for 54.7% of all offensive plays, a rate that ranked 24th among all teams. While the volume of pass plays was lower at 600, the unit still managed to generate 6.38 yards per play, finishing 11th in that metric. The disparity between run and pass usage highlights a clear strategic preference for establishing the run early and often.

On neutral downs, the offense passed on 51.6% of snaps, resulting in a pass rate over expected (PROE) of -2.3, which ranked 18th in the league. Individual efficiency varied significantly across personnel, with Caleb Williams leading the passing sample with a 43.3% success rate on 594 pass plays. The rushing success was driven by a committee approach, as D'Andre Swift posted a 48.0% success rate on 223 qualifying PBP rush plays and Kyle Monangai added a 46.2% success rate on 171 qualifying PBP rush plays. Williams also contributed effectively as a runner, achieving a 56.1% success rate on his 66 qualifying rush plays. These figures illustrate how the Bears balanced quarterback mobility with traditional running back production to sustain their high-volume ground game.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

The Chicago Bears offense generated significant downfield momentum in 2025, finishing sixth in the league with 71 explosive plays of 20 or more yards. This production yielded 2,006 total yards, driven primarily by a passing attack that accounted for 60 of those big gains and 1,726 yards. Rome Odunze led the receiving corps with 13 explosive catches for 330 yards, while Luther Burden III contributed 11 such receptions for a team-high 358 yards among wideouts. D.J. Moore added 12 explosive grabs for 323 yards, and tight end Colston Loveland chipped in with 10 explosive receptions for 303 yards. On the ground, D'Andre Swift provided eight rushes of 20-plus yards for 234 yards, complementing the aerial assault and helping the unit maintain its high ranking in raw explosive-play count.

Defensively, the unit struggled to contain big plays, allowing 74 explosive gains for 2,263 yards, which ranked 30th in the league. Of those 74 explosive plays allowed, 61 came through the air (1,834 yards) and 13 on rushes (429 yards). These raw counts highlight a vulnerability in preventing long gains, as the defense permitted more than one explosive play per game on average. With key defensive departures including Tremaine Edmunds, Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Gervon Dexter Sr., the Bears will look to available additions such as Devin Bush and Clark Phillips III to help tighten a secondary and front seven that gave up substantial yardage on big plays last season — with Coby Bryant still on Reserve/Injured.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

The Chicago Bears built their 2025 offensive identity around the 11 personnel package, which features one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers. That grouping was Chicago’s most frequently used structure at 583 plays and 1.42 full PPR fantasy points per play. The primary contributors within this setup were D'Andre Swift, Cole Kmet, D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, and Olamide Zaccheaus. When the team shifted to a heavier look with 12 personnel, utilizing one running back, two tight ends, and two wide receivers, they ran 390 plays that yielded 1.27 fantasy points per play. In these two-tight end sets, Swift and Kmet were joined by Colston Loveland, Moore, and Odunze. A smaller-sample 13 personnel package with three tight ends and one wide receiver produced the higher FP/play mark at 1.57 across 90 plays featuring Swift, Durham Smythe, Kmet, Loveland, and Moore.

Formation usage was nearly split between shotgun and under center alignments, though the efficiency gap between them was notable. The Bears operated out of shotgun on 552 plays, representing 50.4 percent of their plays, and achieved 1.57 fantasy points per play from that look. Under center formations comprised 47.5 percent of the offense with 521 plays but resulted in a lower output of 1.16 fantasy points per play. The pistol formation was used sparingly on just 23 plays, yet it delivered the highest efficiency at 1.60 fantasy points per play. Run-pass options were integrated into these structures rather than standing as a separate formation category, appearing on 53 plays for 4.8 percent of the total volume while generating 0.61 fantasy points per play.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #12; play-action rank #2 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

The Chicago Bears utilized pre-snap motion on 58.2 percent of their offensive plays in 2025, a frequency that ranked 12th among all thirty-two franchises. With motion, the offense posted a 47.0 percent success rate across 638 plays and 1.40 full PPR fantasy points per play, compared with 1.35 fantasy points per play without motion.

Play action ranked second league-wide at an 18.5 percent usage rate. On the 203 play-action plays, the offense posted a 47.8 percent success rate and 1.93 fantasy points per play, compared with 1.25 on non-play-action downs.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Chicago Bears quarterback room at number 11 heading into the 2026 season, a positioning that reflects both the growth and lingering inconsistencies of Caleb Williams. In his second year under Ben Johnson, Williams saw his yards per attempt climb to 6.9 and his touchdown rate rise to 4.8%, while also taking significantly fewer sacks than in his rookie campaign. Williams posted a 14.6% off-target rate, highest among the 33 qualified quarterbacks in the cited sample, leaving overall ball placement as a major 2026 development point. His completion rate was 58.1%, and he also carried a high air-yard average.

The passing game operates behind an offensive line unit that Sharp rates as the sixth-strongest in the league, providing a stable foundation for the quarterback. The roster includes recent draft capital such as center Logan Jones, selected with pick 57, who joins a group tasked with maintaining protection standards. Sharp’s overall OL grade is a unit rank, not a pass-block-only grade. Williams still has to turn that trench support into cleaner play-to-play ball placement.

Looking toward 2026, the outlook for the Bears passing attack hinges on Williams refining his decision-making and ball placement without sacrificing the playmaking upside he has demonstrated. The combination of a top-tier offensive line and a quarterback who has already improved his sack avoidance and scoring rate creates a viable framework for success. However, reducing that league-worst off-target rate remains central to whether the passing game becomes a more consistent threat in 2026.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Win = weeks in the top N at that DK position on the salary slate (QB 5 / RB·WR 12 / TE 6). DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp projects the Chicago Bears’ receiving corps as the ninth-best unit in the league for 2026, a ranking that reflects significant turnover and emerging internal options. The group loses D.J. Moore (trade to Buffalo), Olamide Zaccheaus, Durham Smythe, and Devin Duvernay, while adding Kalif Raymond via free agency. In 2025, Rome Odunze led the wide receivers with 90 targets and a 22.0 percent NFL+ TGT%, posting a DraftKings average of 12.9 points across 12 games. Luther Burden III commanded the highest NFL+ TGT% among qualified wideouts at 25.0 percent, generating 60 targets and a robust +27.5 receiving EPA over 15 appearances. Olamide Zaccheaus remained heavily involved with 65 targets and a 19.2 percent NFL+ TGT%, though his efficiency lagged with a negative receiving EPA.

At tight end, Colston Loveland emerged as a primary weapon, securing 82 targets and a 21.5 percent NFL+ TGT% while leading all pass catchers with +44.8 receiving EPA. His production translated to a 10.9 DraftKings average over 16 games, far outpacing Cole Kmet, who recorded 48 targets and a 4.8 point average. Loveland also dominated red-zone attention, leading the team with 15 red-zone targets and a 21.1 percent share in those situations. Zaccheaus and Odunze followed with 13 red-zone targets each, while Moore drew 11 looks inside the 20-yard line before his departure.

The early-down usage hierarchy further highlights Loveland’s integral role, as he earned 56 targets compared to 59 for Odunze and 60 for Moore. Burden III proved efficient on early downs with 2.21 fantasy points per target despite a lower volume of 44 looks. With Moore and Zaccheaus both gone, the central vacated target volume sits with those two wideouts; Odunze, Burden III, and free-agent add Kalif Raymond are the clearest candidates to absorb it. The addition of rookie tight end Sam Roush in the third round and wide receiver Zavion Thomas in the third round adds depth to a unit that already features high-upside holdovers.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club, those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai formed the core of the Chicago Bears rushing attack in 2025, with Swift leading the group in volume. Swift carried the ball 223 times across 16 games, while Monangai added 169 attempts over the same span. The unit is viewed favorably for the upcoming season, as Sharp ranks the running backs #18 and the offensive line #6 among all teams. This high ranking for the front five suggests a strong foundation for ground production, even though the backfield itself sits just outside the top tier. Travis Homer is listed among the 2026 departures, removing a depth option from the roster. No new running backs arrived via free agency or trade, but Chicago’s initial 53 still includes Roschon Johnson alongside D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.

Efficiency metrics show a mixed picture for the primary ball carriers. Swift generated positive expected points added with a total of +8.9 Rush EPA and maintained a 46.6% success rate. Monangai posted a higher success rate at 47.3% but produced negative expected points added at -6.1. PBP and NFL+ success rates use different denominators. Those success rates sit near each other; EPA totals still diverged sharply between the two.

Red-zone usage was heavily concentrated between these two players, who each handled 41 red-zone opportunities. Swift was the more prolific scorer inside the 20-yard line, tallying 8 total touchdowns on 40 rushes and 1 target. Monangai scored 5 total touchdowns on 38 rushes and 3 targets. While Monangai’s expected fantasy points in the red zone were higher than his actual output, Swift outperformed expectations with 62.5 total red-zone fantasy points against an expected mark of 52.8. The departure of Homer thins depth behind Swift and Monangai, with Roschon Johnson the third back on the current 53. Swift and Monangai remain the 2025 red-zone volume leaders. RZ TD totals here combine rushing and receiving touchdowns.

RZ TD = combined rushing and receiving touchdowns inside the 20.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Chicago Bears generated 25.9 points per game during the 2025 regular season, a scoring output that ranked ninth in the league. This offensive production translated to 87.6 fantasy points per game in full PPR formats, which also placed the unit at number nine overall. These figures represent the actual points put on the board and the corresponding fantasy value derived from play-by-play data, distinct from daily fantasy salary scoring systems. The team’s ability to move the ball and finish drives resulted in a top-ten standing in both real-world scoring and fantasy point generation for the prior campaign.

Defensively, the Bears allowed 24.4 points per game in 2025, ranking 23rd in the NFL. Chicago allowed 87.6 full-PPR fantasy points per game, ranking 22nd on the table’s fewest-to-most scale (11th-most allowed). While the offense performed at an elite level in scoring efficiency, the defense struggled to prevent opponents from accumulating both real points and fantasy stats. That 2025 production now carries into a 2026 schedule that Sharp ranks 12th on its scale of difficulty, positioning the team in the middle of the pack for upcoming matchup severity.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Chicago Bears offense demonstrates a distinct split in production timing, starting strong but fading before finishing with elite fourth-quarter output. In the opening period, the unit ranks sixth in average points scored and seventh in full PPR fantasy points, establishing early momentum while limiting opponents to just 3.6 points, which is also a sixth-ranked defensive effort. However, performance dips significantly in the second quarter, where scoring falls to 26th in real scoring and 25th in full-PPR production. This mid-game lull coincides with defensive struggles, as the team allows 8.4 points and 26.9 opponent fantasy points in the second quarter, ranking 26th and 27th respectively in those categories.

The second half brings a resurgence for Chicago, particularly in the final frame where the offense becomes one of the most potent in the league. The Bears rank third in average points scored and fifth in full PPR fantasy points during the fourth quarter, averaging 8.7 real points and 26.0 fantasy points per game in that span. While the third quarter shows moderate offensive output — 11th in real points and 10th in fantasy points — the defense remains vulnerable late in games. Opponents averaged 27.9 full-PPR points in the fourth quarter, the second-highest allowance in the league.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #30, Secondary #17.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season totals (solo + assists). This Defensive Studs table is Chicago-stint oriented: midseason team-changers use Chicago-only production where available (C.J. Gardner-Johnson 51 tackles with the Bears, not a multi-club season total).

Tremaine Edmunds led the club with 112 tackles; Montez Sweat 10.0 sacks, Gervon Dexter Sr. 6.0 sacks, Austin Booker 4.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Tremaine Edmunds: 3 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 4 INT, 9 PD; Kevin Byard: 4 TFL, 7 INT, 8 PD; Jaquan Brisker: 1 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 8 PD; Nahshon Wright: 3 TFL, 5 INT, 11 PD; T.J. Edwards: 2 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT, 5 PD; C.J. Gardner-Johnson: 5 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 2 INT, 4 PD.

The Chicago Bears face a significant rebuilding task up front after Sharp’s published Front 7 evaluation ranked the unit 30th — a grade that predates the Aug. 30 trade of Gervon Dexter Sr. to Atlanta. Tremaine Edmunds, who led the team with 112 combined tackles, departed in free agency alongside safety Kevin Byard, safety Jaquan Brisker, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and cornerback Nahshon Wright. The defensive line also lost interior linemen Andrew Billings and Chris Williams in free agency, then Dexter via trade. Montez Sweat’s 10.0 sacks and Dexter’s 6.0 sacks remain part of the 2025 ledger, but Dexter’s production does not carry into the 2026 front. The secondary, ranked 17th by Sharp, must also replace the high-volume playmaking of Byard (7 INT, 8 PD), Brisker (8 PD), Wright (11 PD), and Gardner-Johnson.

To address these departures, the Bears added linebacker Devin Bush and cornerback Cameron Lewis in free agency, and acquired cornerback Clark Phillips III in the Dexter trade. Safety Coby Bryant was a headline addition but was placed on Reserve/Injured on Sept. 1. The draft class further bolsters the depth with selections of safety Dillon Thieneman from Oregon, cornerback Malik Muhammad from Texas, and linebacker Keyshaun Elliott from Arizona State. Returning holdovers such as T.J. Edwards (2 TFL, 5 PD) sit alongside Sweat as clear carryover pieces, while Austin Booker (4.5 sacks in 2025) is a key returning edge but was dealing with a groin injury as of Sept. 1 with Week 1 availability still uncertain. The front works from Sharp’s pre-trade Front 7 baseline.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Cairo Santos: 33/39 FG, 42/42 PAT.

Tory Taylor led with 60 punts (21 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Devin Duvernay: 40 returns for 1069 yards.

Punt returner Devin Duvernay: 21 returns for 231 yards.

Special teams tackler Daniel Hardy: 19 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Cairo Santos delivered reliable scoring accuracy in 2025, converting 33 of 39 field goal attempts while remaining perfect on 42 extra points. His longest successful kick traveled 54 yards, and he connected on four attempts from 50 yards or longer. Tory Taylor anchored the punting unit by launching 60 punts without a single block, placing 21 of those kicks inside the opponent’s 20-yard line to pin opposing offenses deep in their own territory.

Devin Duvernay handled both primary return roles last season, accumulating 1,069 yards on 40 kickoff returns and adding 231 yards on 21 punt returns, and he is listed among the 2026 departures. On the current unofficial depth chart, Kalif Raymond is KR1 and PR1, with rookie Zavion Thomas listed second at both spots. Cairo Santos and Tory Taylor remain the incumbent kicker and punter. Daniel Hardy provided essential coverage support with a team-high 19 combined tackles across punt and kickoff units.

Penalty Analysis

Sharp’s penalty methodology credits Chicago’s offense with 52.5% of the team’s total penalties in 2025, a drop from the 62% share he cites for Caleb Williams’ rookie year. That Sharp share is a different scope from the Hacking DFS / nflverse bucket table above, where offense is 77 of 120 flags (64.2%). Despite progress on Sharp’s year-over-year framing, the unit remained among the league’s most flagged groups, finishing in the top 10 for overall infractions after ranking as the third-most penalized unit in 2024. Pre-snap errors were a particular issue, placing the Bears in the top five for such infractions, although this still represented a decline in frequency compared to their 2024 per-game average. Continued mastery of Ben Johnson’s system by Williams is expected to further reduce these procedural mistakes, but the offense’s inability to draw beneficial defensive pass interference calls remains a stark weakness. The group generated only two such penalties throughout the entire 2025 season, ranking last in the league, and Johnson’s historical track record with the Lions suggests this trend of failing to capitalize on passing-play penalties will persist in Chicago.

Defensive discipline presented a mixed bag, with the unit excelling at drawing flags from opponents late in games but struggling with specific aggressive infractions. The Bears generated an above-average 56% of opponent penalties in the second half of contests, a rate that ranked third overall in the NFL. However, the defense was also the league’s most penalized unit for roughing the passer, indicating a tendency toward excessive contact that officials frequently flagged. While the team’s overall success in 2025 included several narrow victories that might suggest luck played a role, the penalty profile reveals clear areas for correction. Reducing pre-snap errors on offense and curbing roughing the passer calls on defense will be essential for maintaining competitiveness as expectations shift from rebuilding to contending.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 77 penalties for 565 yards (#32). Most common: False Start (27), Offensive Holding (19), Intentional Grounding (5). Most flags in Shotgun (19), Under Center (12), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Darnell Wright (12), Theo Benedet (7), D.J. Moore (6). Delay of Game: 5 (Hacking DFS / nflverse Types table).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 43 penalties for 405 yards (#7), including 1 special-teams punt-return holding — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Roughing the Passer (9), Defensive Pass Interference (7), Illegal Use of Hands (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (5), Cover 3 (4). Most flagged players: Nahshon Wright (5), Andrew Billings (5), Nick McCloud (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags. Offense share under this split: 77/120 ≈ 64.2%.

The Chicago Bears offense struggled with discipline, committing 77 penalties for 565 yards, which ranked last in the league. False starts were the most frequent infraction with 27 occurrences, followed by 19 instances of offensive holding and five intentional grounding calls; the Types table also shows five Delay of Game flags. These flags appeared most often when the unit operated out of the shotgun formation, which drew 19 penalties, compared to 12 from under center and one from the pistol. Among individual players, tackle Darnell Wright led the team with 12 flags, while Theo Benedet was called for seven and D.J. Moore accounted for six.

On the other side of the ball, the defense-side nflverse bucket recorded 43 penalties for 405 yards, including one special-teams holding on a punt return rather than a filtered scheme-defense total. That bucket ranked seventh fewest. Roughing the passer led with nine flags, followed by seven defensive pass interference calls and four illegal use of hands. Cover 1 alignments produced the most defense-side flags with 11.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Colston Loveland TE3, Luther Burden WR24, D'Andre Swift RB19, Caleb Williams QB8.

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the roster call — who to target, who to fade, and who inherits work from free agency and the draft.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Caleb Williams (18.7 FPavg), D'Andre Swift (14.2 FPavg), Rome Odunze (12.2 FPavg), Colston Loveland (10.3 FPavg), D.J. Moore (9.9 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

The Chicago Bears offense generated its highest cumulative fantasy output against Cover 3, which accounted for 33.2% of their charted plays and produced 401 total full-PPR points. Colston Loveland led the team in this shell with 78 points, while Luther Burden III added 54. When defenses switched to Cover 1 on 21.7% of plays, Rome Odunze topped the scoring list with 52 points, followed by quarterback Caleb Williams with 26. The unit faced Cover 2 on 20.8% of plays, where Loveland again led with 40 points, though D.J. Moore contributed 17 before the trade to Buffalo.

Efficiency spiked dramatically in rare looks, particularly against Cover 0, which yielded 4.40 fantasy points per play across 28 plays. D.J. Moore led that coverage family with 30 points, while D'Andre Swift added 12. Cover 0 is a coverage family in that charting. Although Cover 4 appeared on only 9.3% of plays, it generated 2.23 points per play, with Moore leading at 19 points and Odunze close behind with 17. The Bears also saw modest production against Cover 6 and Cover 9, with Luther Burden III and Olamide Zaccheaus among the top scorers in those limited samples.

D.J. Moore is no longer on the roster after the trade to Buffalo, which alters the top-end volume in high-efficiency shells like Cover 0 and Cover 4. Returning holdovers Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland both led in cumulative points against specific coverages in 2025, and D'Andre Swift also appeared among the top scorers in the Cover 0 sample.

Skill adds: Kalif Raymond (WR).

Skill losses: D.J. Moore (WR) to the Bills (trade), Olamide Zaccheaus (WR) to the Falcons, Durham Smythe (TE) to the Ravens, Devin Duvernay (WR) to the Cardinals, and Travis Homer (RB) to the Steelers.

Skill draft picks: Sam Roush (TE, Rd 3, Stanford) and Zavion Thomas (WR, Rd 3, LSU).

Caleb Williams led the Chicago Bears in fantasy scoring with an average of 18.7 points per game against an expected mark of 21.3. Among pass-catchers, Rome Odunze posted a 12.2 average against a higher expected figure of 15.3, while Luther Burden III averaged 8.5 points against a 7.2 expected mark and carries Sharp’s WR24 rank. Colston Loveland provided steady tight end value with a 10.3 average that closely matched his 10.2 expected figure, while D.J. Moore contributed 9.9 points per game before the trade to Buffalo. The losses of Moore and Zaccheaus clear the largest wideout target chunks from 2025, with Smythe and Duvernay adding further vacated volume for the returning core and new additions.

Kalif Raymond arrives via free agency to help fill the void in the receiving room, joining third-round draft picks Sam Roush and Zavion Thomas. Roush, a tight end from Stanford, and Thomas, a wide receiver from LSU, enter a skill room with vacated volume after those veteran exits. With Moore gone, Odunze and Burden are positioned for larger roles in the passing game.

D'Andre Swift remains the primary rushing option after averaging 14.2 fantasy points per game, slightly ahead of his expected 13.9 average. The departure of Travis Homer to the Steelers removes a backup presence from the backfield.

Inside Scoop

Sharp’s overall grade for Chicago Bears is a B, reflecting a forecast of 9.5 wins that positions the team as a third-place finisher in its division. The unit rankings reveal a stark contrast between the trenches and the front seven, with the offensive line rated as the sixth-strongest group in the league while the front seven sits at number 30. This disparity underscores the optimism surrounding Ben Johnson’s second season as head coach, where expectations have rapidly shifted from rebuilding to contending. However, the law of averages suggests that the team’s ability to pull off miraculous escapes in 2025 will not continue at the same high rate, placing significant pressure on Caleb Williams to elevate his performance in 2026 rather than relying on late-game heroics.

The roster undergoes notable changes across multiple channels: D.J. Moore was traded to Buffalo; Tremaine Edmunds, Kevin Byard, Jaquan Brisker, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Olamide Zaccheaus, and Ryan Bates left via free agency or other exits; and Gervon Dexter Sr. was traded to Atlanta. The front office answered in part with Devin Bush, Garrett Bradbury (via trade), and Clark Phillips III, while Coby Bryant remains on IR and Kyler Gordon, Noah Sewell, and Shemar Turner are on PUP. While the schedule is ranked 12th in difficulty, offering a mid-pack challenge, leaning on returning holdovers to maintain the previous season’s 11-6 success level is risky given that churn — and Sharp’s #30 Front 7 grade still predates the Dexter trade. With the average betting line set at -1.6 and the team favored in 12 of 17 games, the market expects competitiveness, but the loss of proven veterans means the Bears must prove they can sustain drives without the narrow margins that defined their prior campaign.

---

Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.