NFL 2026 PREVIEW: CINCINNATI BENGALS

Cincinnati is 2-0, and last year's 6-11 already looks like two teams stapled together. Joe Burrow went 5-3 in eight starts; a Week 2 turf-toe injury that required surgery knocked him out of the other nine, and the Bengals went 1-8 without him. Warren Sharp's preseason forecast is 9.5 wins and second in the AFC North, a rebound that leans on the third-easiest schedule and a quarterback room he ranks third. Last year's scoring split is why that number jumped so far off six wins: Cincinnati scored 24.4 points per game (12th) and allowed 28.9 (30th), going 7-10 against the spread and 9-8 to the over.

The other half of Sharp's case was that the defense could not stay historically bad after eight consecutive games of at least 27 points and 350 yards. Through two weeks the rebuilt front has already shown up. Cincinnati traded for Dexter Lawrence and signed Boye Mafe, Jonathan Allen, Bryan Cook, and Kyle Dugger around him. The unresolved risk is still the line. Sharp ranks it 28th, and Cincinnati is running back the same starting five. When Burrow is upright, this offense can beat anyone. When he is not, the 1-8 collapse without him is the warning.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Boye Mafe (EDGE), Bryan Cook (S), Jonathan Allen (IDL), and Kyle Dugger (S); Dexter Lawrence (IDL) (via trade).

Key Departures: Trey Hendrickson (EDGE) to the Ravens, Joseph Ossai (EDGE) to the Jets, Noah Fant (TE) to the Saints, Cordell Volson (LG) to the Titans, Tycen Anderson (S) to the Broncos, Lucas Patrick (LG) to the Giants, Cam Taylor-Britt (CB) to the Colts, Geno Stone (S) to the Bills, Jake Browning (QB) to the Buccaneers, Marco Wilson (CB) to the Dolphins, Brian Asamoah (LB), Matt Lee (C), and Jaxson Kirkland (RG).

Head coach Zac Taylor enters his eighth season — Warren Sharp ranks him 24th — with Dan Pitcher back for a third year on offense. Continuity there matters because the passing game is the reason Sharp believes in a rebound at all. Jake Browning left for the Buccaneers, so Joe Flacco returns as the backup after the midseason trade that stabilized the job in 2025. Noah Fant signed with the Saints. Interior line depth thinned when Cordell Volson joined the Titans, Lucas Patrick headed to the Giants, and Matt Lee and Jaxson Kirkland also departed; the published starting five of Orlando Brown, Dylan Fairchild, Ted Karras, Dalton Risner, and Amarius Mims is the group Cincinnati is running back.

Al Golden is in year two after a defense that could not get off the field. Cincinnati traded for Dexter Lawrence, then signed Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe to rebuild the front after Trey Hendrickson left for the Ravens and Joseph Ossai signed with the Jets. Bryan Cook arrives from Kansas City to pair with Jordan Battle, with Kyle Dugger added as the third safety after Geno Stone left for the Bills and Tycen Anderson for the Broncos. Cam Taylor-Britt signed with the Colts and Marco Wilson with the Dolphins. Linebacker Brian Asamoah also departed.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Cincinnati spent its original first-round capital on Dexter Lawrence, then used the first pick it actually made on Cashius Howell, a pass-rush specialist. Howell, the second-rounder at 41 out of Texas A&M, is smaller than Cincinnati's usual edge profile. Warren Sharp's case is twitch and speed on passing downs, lined up wide, not a three-down run defender. Tacario Davis, the third-round corner at 72, brings length and ball-hawk traits; Sharp's near-term expectation is special teams, with a larger role more likely in 2027 when several Bengals corners hit free agency.

The middle of the class is offensive line and a downfield complement. Connor Lew, the fourth-round center at 128, tore his ACL in October. That made his summer availability a question, but he made the initial 53-man roster and currently backs up Ted Karras at center. Brian Parker II, the sixth-rounder at 189, was drafted as an offensive tackle after playing right tackle at Duke; Sharp sees interior versatility more than an immediate starter, and he is currently on reserve/injured reserve, designated to return. Colbie Young, the fourth-rounder at 140, is a tall outside receiver Sharp wanted competing as the Andrei Iosivas complement. Seventh-rounders Jack Endries (tight end, 221) and Landon Robinson (defensive tackle, 226) are developmental: Endries as a flexible tight end who lines up in multiple spots, Robinson as a smaller interior pass rusher.

Sharp Forecasts Cincinnati Bengals with 9.5 Wins

Over Case: Warren Sharp's 9.5-win forecast is a bet that Burrow's eight-start sample is the real offense. He ranked eighth in success rate and fourth in touchdown rate among qualified passers on 285 dropbacks, and Cincinnati went 5-3 in those games. The schedule is the other half: Sharp ranks it the third-easiest after a 20th-ranked slate in 2025, and the preseason board has Cincinnati favored in 15 of 17 games. If Lawrence, Allen, and Mafe make the front merely average after a year that finished 27th in points allowed per drive (2.44) and last in yards allowed per play (6.2), the passing attack does not have to be perfect every week.

Under Case: The under starts with the same offensive line. Sharp ranks it 28th, and Cincinnati is running it back with Orlando Brown, Dylan Fairchild, Ted Karras, Dalton Risner, and Amarius Mims rather than replacing them. Burrow has now missed significant time in three of six seasons, including the turf-toe surgery that cost him most of 2025. On the other side, Trey Hendrickson left for the Ravens after seven games and four sacks, and Sharp ranks the rebuilt Front 7 26th. Being favored in 15 of 17 games is a heavy weight for a quarterback who has not yet proven he can stay upright behind this line.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -4 days.

Warren Sharp ranks Cincinnati first in overall rest, but the season is not evenly helped. The Bengals finish minus-4 net rest days versus opponents, 23rd in net rest edge, with six weeks that carry a rest differential. Prep rank is 13th and games off a road Sunday or Monday night sit 19th; short-week road games (23rd) and the negated-bye rank (25th) are the weaker spots on the board.

The first five games against Tampa Bay, Houston, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Miami are even rest heading into a Week 6 bye. Coming out of that break, Cincinnati has a plus-7 rest edge at Baltimore in Week 7, then even rest at home against Tennessee and the Week 9 international game against Atlanta in Madrid. The extra days are clustered in that midseason stretch rather than spread across the year.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Jake Browning (8 INT), Joe Flacco (4 INT, 1 FL), Joe Burrow (5 INT), Noah Fant (3 FL), Samaje Perine (2 FL), Ja'Marr Chase (1 FL). Takeaways: Jordan Battle (4 INT), DJ Turner II (2 INT, 1 FR), Demetrius Knight Jr. (2 INT), Geno Stone (2 INT), Cedric Johnson (2 FR), Daxton Hill (1 INT)

Cincinnati's turnover profile was the offense's companion problem to the record. The team finished minus-four overall, ranking 27th in giveaways with 24 total and 28th in interceptions with 17. Quarterbacks accounted for 18 of those giveaways — Jake Browning threw eight before going to Tampa, Joe Burrow five, Joe Flacco four plus a lost fumble — while skill positions were quieter: Noah Fant three fumbles, Samaje Perine two, and Ja'Marr Chase one. When Burrow was healthy, his 48.9% success rate mattered more than the five picks across 278 plays. When the backup quarterbacks took over, the interception rate climbed and the point totals fell harder than ball security alone explains. Protecting the ball in 2026 becomes a secondary concern if Burrow's availability holds; it remains a primary issue if the backups are needed again.

The defense generated 20 takeaways (14th), 13 interceptions (11th), and seven fumble recoveries (16th). Jordan Battle led with four interceptions; DJ Turner II contributed two picks and a recovery, Knight Jr. two picks, and Johnson two fumble recoveries. Geno Stone's two interceptions left for Buffalo. It's unclear whether the rebuilt front will generate more takeaways in 2026, or whether Cincinnati will simply protect the ball better on offense and close the minus-four gap that way.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Joe Burrow 113 yards; Joe Flacco 64 yards; Jake Browning 60 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 35/837 ≈ 4.2% of shotgun plays; 1/181 ≈ 0.6% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Myles Murphy (5.5), Joseph Ossai (5), Trey Hendrickson (4), B.J. Hill (4)

Cincinnati's offensive line allowed 36 sacks (14th). Thirty-five came from shotgun and one from under center; Cincinnati ran 837 total shotgun plays and 181 under-center plays, so those formation shares are descriptive rather than conventional dropback sack rates. Burrow absorbed 113 of the sack yards, with Flacco losing 64 and Browning 60. On defense, Cincinnati recorded 35 sacks to rank 22nd, with 25 coming on four-man rushes. Myles Murphy led at 5.5; Ossai contributed five before the Jets; Hendrickson matched B.J. Hill at four despite only seven games. Cover 3 (12 sacks) and Cover 1 (11) were the shells with the highest raw counts. Whether Lawrence, Allen, Mafe, and Howell can generate more pressure than last year's 35 sacks is the key 2026 question for the defense.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 1 (#7) — Charlie Jones (kickoff return).

Kickoff returner Charlie Jones: 42 returns for 1084 yards.

Punt returner Ke'Shawn Williams: 20 returns for 207 yards.

Punt returns 23 for 220 yards; kickoff returns 81 for 2058 yards.

Charlie Jones provided Cincinnati's single special-teams score of 2025, a kickoff return, and he handled the kickoff job: 42 returns for 1,084 yards. The team as a whole recorded 81 kickoff returns for 2,058 yards. Ke'Shawn Williams led punt returns (20 of 23 for 207 yards of the team's 220). Cincinnati did not allow an opponent punt or kickoff return touchdown.

Penalties

Offense: 56 penalties for 377 yards (#10). Most common: False Start (21), Offensive Holding (14), Delay of Game (11). Most flags in Shotgun (10), Under Center (6), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Orlando Brown (10), Dylan Fairchild (6), Dalton Risner (4).

Defense: 32 penalties for 256 yards (#1), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (6), Roughing the Passer (5), Defensive Holding (5). Most flags on Cover 3 (7), Cover 1 (5), Cover 4 (2). Most flagged players: Cam Taylor-Britt (4), Daxton Hill (4), Joseph Ossai (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Cincinnati's defense and offense had very different penalty profiles. The defense recorded 32 flags for 256 yards to rank first (fewest penalties), while the offense drew 56 penalties for 377 yards to rank 10th. Defensive flags were highest in Cover 3 (7), then Cover 1 (5) and Cover 4 (2): Cover 1 is man, Cover 3 and Cover 4 are zone. Cam Taylor-Britt and Daxton Hill each had four flags; Ossai had three. On offense, false starts (21), offensive holding (14), and delay of game (11) led the list. Shotgun had 10 flags, under center 6, and pistol 1, against 837, 181, and 31 plays from those looks. Orlando Brown led the club with 10 flags, Fairchild six, and Risner four.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 806 plays, 44.5% success, -0.05 EPA/play (#27). Most efficient on early downs: Tee Higgins (67 plays, 0.35 EPA/play), Mitchell Tinsley (20 plays, 0.17 EPA/play), Tanner Hudson (14 plays, 0.12 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 151 plays, 46.4% success, 0.07 EPA/play (#10). Most efficient in the red zone: Ja'Marr Chase (22 plays, 0.49 EPA/play), Chase Brown (49 plays, 0.17 EPA/play), Mike Gesicki (8 plays, 0.02 EPA/play).

Cincinnati was 27th in early-down EPA at -0.05 per play and 10th in the red zone at 0.07. Individual receivers still posted positive early-down EPA when they got the ball: Tee Higgins 0.35 on 67 plays, Mitchell Tinsley 0.17 on 20, Tanner Hudson 0.12 on 14. Inside the 20, Ja'Marr Chase led at 0.49 EPA per play on 22 plays, Chase Brown handled 49 plays at 0.17, and Mike Gesicki was roughly break-even at 0.02 on eight. The Bengals were materially better in the red zone than on early downs.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 4.0 (#5); they passed 57.8% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Joe Burrow (48.9% success on 278 pass plays), Joe Flacco (45.8% success on 264 pass plays), Jake Browning (38.1% success on 134 pass plays).

On rushes: Chase Brown (39.9% success on 233 rush plays), Samaje Perine (54.8% success on 84 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Cincinnati threw on 64.5% of snaps—second in the league—and did so even on neutral downs. Their pass rate over expected was +4.0 on neutral situations, showing the pass-heavy approach was schematic, not a response to trailing. Volume without efficiency, though: 5.92 yards per pass play (21st) and a 45.5% success rate (12th) meant the throws did not always work. Burrow threw efficiently when healthy (48.9% success on 278 plays), but Flacco (45.8% on 264) and Browning (38.1% on 134) struggled when asked to shoulder the load.

The rushing split told a different story. Cincinnati ran just 35.5% of snaps — 31st in rate — yet posted a 45.4% rushing success rate (6th). Samaje Perine was the more efficient back (54.8% success on 84 rush plays), while Chase Brown absorbed the volume (233 rush plays at 39.9% success). Neither developed into an explosive threat.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Cincinnati generated 55 explosive plays for 1,576 yards (19th), and almost everything came through the air — 47 explosive passes for 1,356 yards against eight explosive rushes for 220. Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins combined for 29 explosive plays and 870 yards. Andrei Iosivas contributed seven for 192, Chase Brown six rushes for 167. Cover 1 yielded the largest raw beaten-coverage total (13 for 391), then Cover 3 (11) and Cover 2 (10).

The defense was the other extreme: 79 explosives allowed for 2,284 yards, last in the league. Opponents hit 60 explosive passes for 1,700 yards and 19 explosive rushes for 584, with Derrick Henry and Jaylen Warren combining for seven rushing explosives. Cover 3 surrendered the largest raw allowed total (21 for 563), then Cover 1 (16). Lawrence, Allen, and Mafe are part of the defensive overhaul; last year's 79 allowed explosives are the baseline that unit has to beat, not a diagnosis of why the chunk plays happened.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Eleven personnel was the lead look: 683 plays at 1.53 fantasy points per play. Twelve personnel was a real second package, not a cameo — 319 plays at 1.39 FP/play, about 32% of those two groups combined. Twenty-one personnel was a 20-play sample at 1.67 FP/play.

Shotgun dominated at 837 plays (79.8%) and 1.59 FP/play. Under center (181 plays, 1.08 FP/play) and pistol (31 plays, 0.61) were changeups. Eleven personnel and shotgun were each the most-used look on their own board.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #19; play-action rank #30 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Cincinnati used pre-snap motion more than play action, and the scoring rates ran in opposite directions. Motion (53.1%, 19th) averaged 1.30 full PPR points per play against 1.67 without it. Play action (10.5%, 30th) averaged 1.96 against 1.41 without it. Offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher can evaluate these two schematic options: reducing motion usage or increasing play-action frequency.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

When healthy, Joe Burrow performed at an elite level. On 285 dropbacks he ranked eighth among qualified passers in success rate (46.9%) and fourth in touchdown rate (6.6%), with +0.04 EPA per dropback and +2.0% CPOE. Cincinnati went 5-3 in those eight starts and 1-8 without him. His 2025 DraftKings card reflects only the eight games he played: 20.7 points, an 11.5 floor, a 32.0 ceiling, and three Slate Hits. The Week 2 turf-toe surgery is why keeping him upright is the passing-game job, not a schematic slogan.

Jake Browning started after the injury and lost his three starts. Cincinnati then brought in Joe Flacco, whose DraftKings card (12 games, 16.1 points, a 1.2 floor, a 29.0 ceiling, one Slate Hit) includes relief weeks. Flacco posted -0.17 EPA per dropback and -0.7% CPOE in that sample. He is the 2026 backup. Browning is in Tampa.

The offensive line remains the same five starters from 2025: Orlando Brown, Dylan Fairchild, Ted Karras, Dalton Risner, and Amarius Mims. Lew is on the 53-man roster backing up Ted Karras; Brian Parker II, the sixth-round tackle, is on reserve/injured reserve, designated to return. Chase and Higgins still give this room a perimeter that ranks fourth. Through two games Burrow is 45-of-66 for 461 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception, and he has already taken six sacks — five of them against Houston. If the offensive line protects like it did in 2025, even this elite perimeter won't be enough.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Warren Sharp ranks the receivers fourth, and the 2025 performance makes the case. Ja'Marr Chase led the league in targets at 185 — a 0.30 target-per-route rate — and commanded 29.6% of Cincinnati's passing volume. He generated +32.1 Receiving EPA on 8.4 air yards per target, splitting his work between early-down volume (136 targets) and red-zone aggression (22 targets). Tee Higgins operated as the complement: 98 targets in 15 games, 18.8% target share, +29.6 Receiving EPA at a deeper 13.5 air yards per target. Together they absorbed 283 targets.

The drop-off behind them is now a 2026 roster fact, not just a 2025 efficiency gap. Andrei Iosivas (58 targets, 10.7% share, +6.9 EPA) has torn thumb ligaments and is headed to injured reserve for at least the IR window. Cincinnati has said it will replace him by committee, with Dohnte Meyers, Colbie Young, and additional tight-end usage among the options. Warren Sharp notes that Iosivas and Mitchell Tinsley combined for a 16% drop rate against 4% for Chase and Higgins. Chase Brown provided escape-valve volume at 74 early-down targets, while Mike Gesicki (42 targets, 48.6% route participation in his active games) is the returning tight end after Noah Fant left for New Orleans. Through two games Higgins has 8 catches for 154 yards, Chase 9 for 87 and two scores, and Gesicki 5 for 78 and a touchdown. Jack Endries remains drafted depth.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Chase Brown was the backfield. Across 17 games he handled 232 carries, -9.6 Rush EPA, +0.3 RYOE per attempt, and a 39.2% success rate on official attempts. That is 301 touches for 1,456 yards and 11 touchdowns when receiving work is included. The season had two halves: 50.7 yards from scrimmage per game through six weeks, then 104.7 over the final 11, with at least 90 total yards in nine of those games. He is reliable at avoiding negative runs and is not a big-play back; Sharp had him 29th in rate of 15-plus-yard gains.

Samaje Perine was the efficient changeup: 84 attempts in 13 games, -4.5 Rush EPA, +0.7 RYOE, 51.2% success. Inside the 20, Brown was the scoring back — 37 rushes, 12 targets, 11 combined touchdowns on 49 opportunities. Perine had 16 rushes, one target, two scores. Tahj Brooks is the listed depth piece behind them.

Warren Sharp ranks the running backs 17th. Brown and Perine both return, and they'll run behind the same offensive line: Orlando Brown, Dylan Fairchild, Ted Karras, Dalton Risner, and Amarius Mims. Through two games that backfield plan has not changed: Brown already has 36 carries for 136 yards (3.8 yards per carry), so ground production still has to come from his volume behind that group.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Chase Brown 11 (6 rush, 5 rec); Tee Higgins 11 rec; Ja'Marr Chase 8 rec. Passing TDs: Joe Burrow 17, Joe Flacco 15, Jake Browning 6. Defense TDs: Geno Stone (1 def TD). Special teams: Evan McPherson 25/28 FG, 41/44 XP; Charlie Jones 1.

Chase Brown and Tee Higgins paced the scoring punch with 11 touchdowns apiece. Brown split six rushing scores and five receiving; Higgins scored all 11 through the air. Ja'Marr Chase added eight receiving touchdowns. Burrow threw 17, Flacco 15, and Browning 6 before leaving for Tampa. Geno Stone had the defense's only touchdown. Charlie Jones added the kickoff return, and Evan McPherson converted 25 of 28 field goals and 41 of 44 extra points.

With Burrow healthy, Cincinnati's scoring threat centers on Chase, Higgins, and Brown. Without him, the offense stalled behind backup quarterbacks and the defense couldn't compensate. The 2026 question is whether Cincinnati keeps Burrow upright—not whether the receivers stay productive.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Cincinnati generated its highest real scoring output in the second and fourth quarters, averaging 7.2 points per game in both frames to rank 13th and 11th across the league. Fantasy production followed that late push even more aggressively. While the Bengals posted 25.1 fantasy points per game in the second quarter to rank 10th, their fourth-quarter offense exploded for 27.7 fantasy points per game, the second-highest mark in the NFL. That closing surge stood in stark contrast to their first-quarter starts, where Cincinnati managed just 4.5 real points (19th) and 17.4 fantasy points (18th), before steadying out of halftime with 5.5 points (ninth) and 20.6 fantasy points (17th) in the third quarter.

The defensive splits told an inverse story, as Cincinnati struggled to contain opponents right before halftime and down the stretch. Opposing offenses scored their highest totals in the second quarter (9.4 points allowed) and fourth quarter (9.1 points allowed), placing the defense 31st on the fewest-points-allowed scale in both periods. Opponent fantasy scoring surged along the same trajectory, with Cincinnati yielding 27.3 fantasy points per game in the second quarter (ranking 29th on the fewest-allowed scale) and 26.5 in the fourth quarter (ranking 28th). The defense held up considerably better early, allowing 4.7 points (20th) and 17.2 fantasy points (16th) in opening quarters before surrendering 5.8 points (24th) and 21.9 fantasy points (27th) in the third.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #26, Secondary #23.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Jordan Battle led the club with 125 tackles; Myles Murphy 5.5 sacks, Joseph Ossai 5.0 sacks, B.J. Hill 4.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Jordan Battle: 2 TFL, 4 INT, 6 PD; Barrett Carter: 1 TFL, 1 INT, 4 PD; Demetrius Knight Jr.: 4 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 2 INT, 7 PD; Geno Stone: 4 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 2 INT, 4 PD; Daxton Hill: 2 TFL, 1 INT, 11 PD; B.J. Hill: 5 TFL, 4.0 sacks; Myles Murphy: 6 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 3 PD; Joseph Ossai: 9 TFL, 5.0 sacks.

Cincinnati's front seven is rebuilding after 35 sacks in 2025. The returning pass-rush core was modest: Myles Murphy 5.5 sacks and six TFL, B.J. Hill four sacks and five TFL, Tedarrell Slaton three sacks and four TFL. Trey Hendrickson (four sacks in seven games before Baltimore) and Joseph Ossai (five sacks and nine TFL before the Jets) are gone. Lawrence and Jonathan Allen are the interior pair; Mafe is at right end. Through two games that front has eight sacks, tied for the league lead. B.J. Hill missed Week 2 with an Achilles injury, did not practice this week, and Zac Taylor has him doubtful for Pittsburgh; Jonathan Allen returned to full practice Friday and is good to go, and Dexter Lawrence is also ready. Linebackers Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight Jr. were impact rookies (106 tackles each), with Knight adding three sacks, two interceptions, and pass defense. Sharp ranks the Front 7 26th, a published grade that predates how those additions have actually played.

The secondary showed more individual polish than the team defense suggested. Jordan Battle led with 125 tackles and four interceptions; Daxton Hill added 88 tackles and 11 passes broken up; DJ Turner II had 18 passes broken up and two interceptions. Geno Stone (104 tackles, two interceptions) left for Buffalo, as did Cam Taylor-Britt, Marco Wilson, and Tycen Anderson. Cook starts next to Battle, with Dugger behind him. Sharp ranks the secondary 23rd. The 2026 start showed signs of improvement: three straight first-half Tampa Bay possessions ended in forced fumbles, then Cincinnati held Houston to six points.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Cincinnati’s primary coverage looks in 2025 were single-high, and the efficiency varied by shell. Cover 3 was the base: 197 snaps, 350 PPR points, 1.78 per snap, 17th. Cover 1 on 153 snaps was a tick tighter at 1.69 per play (14th), the stingiest of the three highest-volume alignments.

The unit leaked more once it left those looks. Cover 2 (124 snaps, 1.73 per snap) ranked 22nd. Cover 4 was the leakiest look in the league at 3.34 fantasy points per snap across 20 snaps. Cover 0 allowed 4.63 per play on 39 snaps (16th). Cover 6 (2.39 on 29 snaps) and 2-Man (2.29 on 27) are small samples. Those rates describe the fantasy points Cincinnati allowed per snap in each shell. This is defensive context, not a fantasy recommendation to target Chase and Higgins based on coverage matchups.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Evan McPherson: 25/28 FG, 41/44 PAT.

Ryan Rehkow led with 65 punts (28 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Charlie Jones: 42 returns for 1084 yards.

Punt returner Ke'Shawn Williams: 20 returns for 207 yards.

Special teams tackler Joe Giles-Harris: 20 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Evan McPherson converted 25 of 28 field goals (89.3%) and 41 of 44 extra points, with a long of 63 and five makes from 50-plus. Ryan Rehkow punted 65 times, 28 inside the 20, with none blocked. Charlie Jones handled kickoffs (42 for 1,084 yards of the team's 2,058) and Ke'Shawn Williams led punt returns (20 for 207). Joe Giles-Harris paced coverage with 20 combined special teams tackles.

Jones was waived at final cuts. Cincinnati currently lists Williams as the kickoff returner and Dohnte Meyers as the punt returner.

Penalty Analysis

Cincinnati continued a run as one of the league's most disciplined teams under Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow. The Sharp Football Preview penalty analysis gives Cincinnati an A for Penalties & Discipline. The Bengals averaged the third-fewest penalties per game and the third-fewest penalty yards per contest. They averaged the fewest fourth-quarter penalties per game in 2025. The half split is the other finding: 2.0 offensive penalties per game in the first half versus 0.71 in the second half.

Opponent flags also went Cincinnati's way. The offense ranked as a top-10 beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty, mostly defensive pass interference and defensive holding, and finished with the second-largest net advantage in those first downs behind Tampa Bay. The defense was the No. 1 beneficiary of offensive pass interference penalties. The other side of that restraint: Cincinnati averaged the second-fewest defensive penalties per game, a profile the Preview notes helps an elite unit and hurts one that needed disruption. Combined with opponents generating the fewest special teams flags per game, the low foul counts describe a clean operation and a defense that did not buy extra contact in close games.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 56 penalties for 377 yards (#10). Most common: False Start (21), Offensive Holding (14), Delay of Game (11). Most flags in Shotgun (10), Under Center (6), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Orlando Brown (10), Dylan Fairchild (6), Dalton Risner (4).

Defense: 32 penalties for 256 yards (#1), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (6), Roughing the Passer (5), Defensive Holding (5). Most flags on Cover 3 (7), Cover 1 (5), Cover 4 (2). Most flagged players: Cam Taylor-Britt (4), Daxton Hill (4), Joseph Ossai (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Pre-snap timing issues and line infractions accounted for the bulk of Cincinnati's offensive penalties. The offense committed 21 false starts alongside 11 delay of game infractions, while offensive holding was assessed 14 times. Three illegal formation flags and two fair catch interference penalties rounded out the primary miscues. Shotgun had the highest raw offensive flag count (10) against the largest formation sample.

Coverage and contact produced the defensive flags: six defensive pass interference, five defensive holding, five roughing the passer, and three illegal contact. Cover 3 had the highest raw coverage-flag count. Special teams added four offensive holding penalties on punt returns. Sharp's analysis notes a paradox: a defense ranked 30th in points allowed should be willing to take more contact penalties to disrupt opposing offenses. Being too disciplined—avoiding the minor infractions that come with aggressive coverage and pass rush—may have cost Cincinnati more than it saved.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Ja’Marr Chase WR2, Tee Higgins WR16, Chase Brown RB9, Joe Burrow QB5.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Ja'Marr Chase (19.6 FPavg), Joe Burrow (16.8 FPavg), Chase Brown (16.4 FPavg), Tee Higgins (14.0 FPavg), Joe Flacco (13.2 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Cover 2 was the most common shell Cincinnati faced, 29.2% of charted plays (202), and produced 302 PPR points at 1.50 per play, with Chase at 66 and Brown at 50. Cover 3 was 22.7% (157 plays), 286 points at 1.82, and Chase's 106 stood well ahead of Higgins's 26.

Man coverage scored faster. Cover 1 was 21.4% of charted plays (148) and 355 points at 2.40 per play, with Higgins at 75 and Chase at 65. Two-man was 9.7% (67 plays) at 1.68, where Brown's 28 edged Chase's 26. Cover 4 (7.1%, 1.88), Cover 6 (4.6%, 1.81), and Cover 9 (3.2%, 2.71) kept the same two receivers on top. Chase and Higgins scored against every shell; the coverage mix changed the split, not the names.

Skill losses: Noah Fant (TE) to the Saints and Jake Browning (QB) to the Buccaneers.

Skill draft picks: Colbie Young (WR, Rd 4, Georgia) and Jack Endries (TE, Rd 7, Texas).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Sharp ranks Ja'Marr Chase WR2. His 2025 HackingDFS profile was a 16.2 floor, 39.5 ceiling, 11 Slate Hits, $8,100, and 2.63 FP/$. He led the club in targets (185) and red-zone looks (22).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Tee Higgins's 15-game card is a 9.9 floor, 27.2 ceiling, four Slate Hits, $6,000, and 2.50 FP/$. Sixteen red-zone targets and 13.5 air yards per target are the 2025 complement, not a weekly 2026 play.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Joe Burrow's eight-game card is an 11.5 floor, 32.0 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $6,600, and 3.16 FP/$. The sample is the healthy-Burrow offense. It is not a 17-game baseline.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Sharp ranks Chase Brown RB9. His 2025 HackingDFS profile shows a 12.0 floor, 25.5 ceiling, six Slate Hits, $6,600, and 2.73 FP/$, with 232 carries, 11 combined touchdowns, and 74 early-down targets.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Mike Gesicki carried a thin weekly floor but enough inexpensive ceiling to remain tournament viable. Across 12 DraftKings games he averaged 6.1 points with a 2.4 floor, 12.5 ceiling, and one Slate Hit at a $3,300 average salary and 1.85 FP/$. The profile was volatility at a low tight-end salary rather than dependable cash-game production.

Inside Scoop

Cincinnati finished 6-11, but that record masks the gap between Burrow's performance and the backups. He went 5-3 in eight starts, then a turf-toe injury turned the rest of the year into 1-8. That split is why Warren Sharp's preseason forecast is 9.5 wins and second in the AFC North. The offense already had the pieces Sharp ranks at the top of the league: quarterbacks third, receivers fourth. The defense did not have a comparable talent level, which is why Cincinnati traded for Dexter Lawrence and signed Jonathan Allen, Boye Mafe, Bryan Cook, and Kyle Dugger. The offensive line, ranked 28th, is the only unit they left unchanged.

The 2-0 start is the first glimpse of whether that defensive spend shows up before the line is asked to protect Burrow for 17 games. Three straight first-half Tampa Bay possessions ended in forced fumbles, Houston was held to six points, and the front is tied for the league lead with eight sacks, with Lawrence and Allen inside and Mafe at right end. Cincinnati is even rest through Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, and Miami, then a Week 6 bye and a plus-7 rest edge at Baltimore. Iosivas heading to injured reserve is the first real dent in the perimeter.

That makes the Bengals one of the more interesting teams in this preview series. Sharp's preseason betting snapshot installed them as favorites in 15 of 17 games with a -2.9 average line, minus-4.1 at home and minus-1.7 on the road. They went 7-10 against the spread last year, worse than even a six-win team needed, while 9-8 to the over was just a tick over the total. From a DFS perspective, the 2025 profiles are a floor-plus-ceiling stack: Chase, Higgins, Burrow, and Brown all fit GPP/Cash archetypes on last year's salary cards, while Gesicki's cheap tight-end sample was more tournament-shaped. Those are historical samples, not weekly 2026 plays. The 2026 Bengals are defined by two things: Burrow's availability and whether the new defensive front works. If both hold, last year's 6-11 record becomes an injury-year anomaly. If either breaks down, Cincinnati reverts to the 1-8 collapse.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.