NFL 2026 PREVIEW: CLEVELAND BROWNS

Cleveland opened 2026 by getting embarrassed 34-10 in Jacksonville, then came back and beat Tampa Bay 23-19. Deshaun Watson is the starter after missing all of 2025 with an Achilles injury: through two games he is 40-of-52 for 443 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and a 112.9 passer rating. Last year's defense carried a 5-12 roster that scored 16.4 points per game (31st) and allowed 22.3 (14th). Week 2 is the first evidence that the rebuilt offense might stop wasting that unit while Week 1 looked like 2025 all over again.

Warren Sharp's preseason forecast was 6.5 wins and fourth place in the AFC North, with the fourth-easiest schedule. Markets still have them as underdogs in 15 of 17 games and favorites in two, at a 3.8-point average line that sits at 2.1 at home and 5.2 on the road. They covered only four times last year and went 8-9 to the over. Todd Monken, Travis Switzer, and Mike Rutenberg are a first-year staff Sharp ranks 29th. The bet is still the split: a front seven ranked sixth in front of an offensive line ranked 32nd, and whether Watson's efficient start is the beginning of closing that gap.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Zion Johnson (LG), Elgton Jenkins (C), Quincy Williams (LB), Kalia Davis (IDL, IR), and Daniel Thomas (S); Tytus Howard (RT) (via trade) and Jared Verse (EDGE) (via trade).

Key Departures: Myles Garrett (EDGE) to the Rams, Joel Bitonio (LG), Wyatt Teller (LG) to the Texans, Cam Robinson (LT), Devin Bush (LB) to the Bears, Jack Conklin (RT), Ethan Pocic (C), Cornelius Lucas (LT), Shelby Harris (IDL) to the Giants, Martin Emerson (CB) to the Saints, DeAndre Carter (WR), Jerome Baker (LB), Rayshawn Jenkins (S), Jerome Ford (RB) to the Commanders, Mohamoud Diabate (LB) to the Titans, Trayveon Williams (RB), Sam Webb (CB), Justin Osborne (C), and Anthony Kendall (CB).

The sideline is new, and that matters most on the line Sharp ranked 32nd. Todd Monken, Travis Switzer, and Mike Rutenberg are all in first-year jobs, and the 2025 interior left with them: Joel Bitonio retired, Wyatt Teller signed with Houston, and Ethan Pocic left the center spot Elgton Jenkins now occupies. Through two games the line has been Spencer Fano at left tackle, Zion Johnson at left guard, Elgton Jenkins at center, Austin Barber at right guard, and Tytus Howard at right tackle. Fano is already LT1. Barber started Week 1 for an injured Teven Jenkins, and Monken subsequently said Barber had earned the starting job; he started Week 2 while Jenkins was inactive. Teven Jenkins remains listed atop the unofficial depth chart but has yet to play and has been ruled out for Week 3, his third consecutive missed game with the back injury.

Mike Rutenberg inherits the other half of last year's split: a front seven Sharp still ranks sixth after the Myles Garrett trade. Jared Verse is the edge replacement, with Quincy Williams at linebacker. Kalia Davis, listed among the interior additions, went on injured reserve September 1 with a quad injury and is not part of the current front. Watson is the starter, Shedeur Sanders the backup, and Taylen Green third; Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve, designated to return, with a back injury. Quinshon Judkins leads the backfield, Raheim Sanders has moved into the primary reserve role, and Jaleel McLaughlin was promoted after Dylan Sampson went on injured reserve September 15. The secondary is still largely last year's group, with Daniel Thomas the safety add and Emmanuel McNeil-Warren the backup.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Andrew Berry's 2026 draft class is already reshaping the Browns' roster in ways that preseason analysis did not anticipate. He traded down from sixth to ninth with Kansas City, then used the opening pick as a line investment: Spencer Fano as the first offensive lineman off the board. Fano is not just competing—he is already starting at left tackle, the rare immediate impact at a position that usually takes time.

The more dramatic story is what happened to the skill positions. KC Concepcion (pick 24) and Denzel Boston (pick 39) arrived via high picks to address the receiver void, and they have already surpassed preseason expectations. Boston has seven catches for 154 yards and two touchdowns through two games, including explosive scoring plays of 46 and 55 yards. Concepcion is the punt returner and starting slot receiver. These are not backup roles. Warren Sharp ranks the 2026 receivers 30th; two weeks into the season, the incoming receivers are already the focal point.

The supporting cast is more mixed. Emmanuel McNeil-Warren (pick 58) is the backup strong safety, and Justin Jefferson, the Alabama linebacker, is behind Quincy Williams. Austin Barber (pick 86) has started both games at right guard after Teven Jenkins went down. Carsen Ryan and Blake Whiteheart are the active tight end depth behind Harold Fannin Jr. Joe Royer is on reserve/non-football illness, designated to return, so he is not current tight end depth. Taylen Green is the third-string quarterback. Those depth-chart moves matter in November if an injury requires substitution. For now, the opening two weeks are telling the story that matters: Fano is NFL-ready at tackle, and Boston-Concepcion are already targets ahead of roster veterans.

Sharp Forecasts Cleveland Browns with 6.5 Wins

Over Case: Last year's offense was last in yards per play (4.3), last in success rate, last in EPA per play, and last in points per drive (1.29). Climbing out of that basement is the entire over argument. Todd Monken is new leadership, KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston are top-40 receivers, and Spencer Fano was the first offensive lineman drafted. Sharp also notes Cleveland was 27th in fumble luck (-3.3 net versus expectation). If the rebuilt line is merely adequate and the defense that ranked first in yards per drive keeps games in the 20s, seven wins do not require a star quarterback.

Under Case: Among 38 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks last year, Dillon Gabriel ranked 37th in EPA per play and Shedeur Sanders 38th. Deshaun Watson ranked 40th of 40 in 2024 on the same mark, and he is the starter. Sharp does not expect Zion Johnson, Elgton Jenkins, and Tytus Howard to turn the line into a strength, and Watson and Sanders both turn pressured dropbacks into mistakes. Cleveland was 3-7 against non-playoff teams. Quinshon Judkins gained five or more yards on 25% of his carries, last among 55 backs with 75-plus attempts, and still last (45%) even when he crossed the line of scrimmage without contact. A sixth-worst roster on Sharp's unit blend does not need a hard schedule to miss 6.5.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club +0 days.

Cleveland is even on rest for the season: plus-zero net days, 16th in net rest edge. Prep rank and rest rank are both first, with short-week road games 16th, games off road Sunday or Monday night 15th, and negated byes 15th.

The even tally comes from four labeled weeks. Jacksonville and Tampa Bay on the road are already played. Carolina at home is next, then a Thursday night home date with Pittsburgh in Week 4 creates a plus-three edge at the New York Jets in Week 5. Week 9 at New Orleans is a minus-seven, Week 12 at home against Las Vegas is a plus-seven, and Week 18 at Cincinnati is a minus-three. The edges cancel. They do not disappear.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Shedeur Sanders (10 INT, 1 FL), Joe Flacco (6 INT, 2 FL), Dillon Gabriel (2 INT), Jerry Jeudy (1 FL), Harold Fannin Jr. (1 FL), Dylan Sampson (1 FL). Takeaways: Devin Bush (3 INT, 1 FR), Grant Delpit (1 INT, 1 FR), Rayshawn Jenkins (1 INT, 1 FR), Ronnie Hickman Jr. (2 INT), Carson Schwesinger (2 INT), Denzel Ward (1 INT)

Ball security was a 2025 problem. Cleveland finished tied for 30th with 25 giveaways and a minus-seven turnover margin. The passing game drove it: 18 interceptions thrown, 29th in the league. Shedeur Sanders had 10 interceptions and one lost fumble, Joe Flacco added six interceptions and two lost fumbles, and Dillon Gabriel threw two picks. Fumbles lost were only seven, 12th, with Jerry Jeudy, Harold Fannin Jr., and Dylan Sampson each losing one.

The defense generated 18 takeaways, 22nd, split as 11 interceptions and seven fumble recoveries. Devin Bush led that sample with three interceptions and a fumble recovery. Ronnie Hickman Jr. and Carson Schwesinger each had two interceptions, Grant Delpit had one of each, and Denzel Ward added an interception. The passing game drove the turnover problem: 18 interceptions. That's half of Cleveland's total giveaways. The 2026 margin doesn't have to come from better defense; it can improve just as easily through fewer mistakes with the ball. Watson has already thrown just one interception through two games, a pace that would meaningfully shift the ledger compared to last year.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Shedeur Sanders 164 yards; Dillon Gabriel 127 yards; Joe Flacco 54 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 43/676 ≈ 6.4% of shotgun plays; 7/328 ≈ 2.1% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Myles Garrett (23), Maliek Collins (6.5), Alex Wright (5.5), Grant Delpit (3)

Cleveland allowed 51 sacks, 26th in the league. Shedeur Sanders lost 164 yards to sacks. Shotgun accounted for 43 of those sacks on 676 plays (6.4%), with seven on 328 under-center plays (2.1%) and one in pistol. Warren Sharp ranks the 2026 offensive line 32nd.

The other side of the ledger was a top-three pass rush: 53 sacks made. Myles Garrett had 23 before the Rams trade, then Maliek Collins 6.5, Alex Wright 5.5, and Grant Delpit 3. Four-man rushes produced 41 sacks, first in the NFL, with nine on five rushers and three on six. Cover 1 had 17 sacks, Cover 3 15, and Cover 2 14. Jared Verse is the trade replacement; last year he generated a 20.7% pressure rate on traditional three-step-plus dropbacks, eighth in the league, a tick ahead of Garrett's 20.3%.

Return Touchdowns

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 3 (#31) — Kalif Raymond (punt return), Kene Nwangwu (kickoff return), and Isaiah Williams (punt return).

Kickoff returner Malachi Corley: 21 returns for 492 yards.

Punt returner Gage Larvadain: 24 returns for 167 yards.

Punt returns 32 for 232 yards; kickoff returns 67 for 1587 yards.

Cleveland scored zero return touchdowns in 2025. Gage Larvadain had 24 punt returns for 167 yards and Malachi Corley 21 kickoffs for 492, and neither found the end zone. The other direction was the problem: three opponent return scores, second-worst in the league — Kalif Raymond and Isaiah Williams on punts, Kene Nwangwu on a kickoff. Larvadain was waived at cutdown. Corley is still the kickoff returner; KC Concepcion is the punt returner.

Penalties

Offense: 70 penalties for 518 yards (#26). Most common: Offensive Holding (21), False Start (21), Delay of Game (11). Most flags in Under Center (18), Shotgun (15). Most flagged players: KT Leveston (10), Cam Robinson (8), Harold Fannin Jr. (5).

Defense: 38 penalties for 322 yards (#5), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Offside (6), Defensive Pass Interference (6), Defensive Holding (6). Most flags on Cover 1 (10), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (4). Most flagged players: Myles Garrett (6), Myles Harden (6), Shelby Harris (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

The 2025 penalty split is the whole story. Cleveland's 108 flags ranked 16th on a scale where first is fewest, but the offense was 26th with 70 of them and the defense fifth with 38. Holding and false start led the offensive sample, Cover 1 led the defensive one, and KT Leveston was the most-flagged player. That gap—70 for the offense, 38 for the defense—is what Monken and Rutenberg must bridge.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 760 plays, 33.4% success, -0.15 EPA/play (#31). Most efficient on early downs: Shedeur Sanders (10 plays, 0.73 EPA/play), David Njoku (33 plays, 0.28 EPA/play), Dillon Gabriel (10 plays, 0.24 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 129 plays, 34.9% success, -0.08 EPA/play (#24). Most efficient in the red zone: David Njoku (9 plays, 0.95 EPA/play), Harold Fannin Jr. (13 plays, 0.10 EPA/play), Jerome Ford (10 plays, 0.04 EPA/play).

Cleveland was worse on early downs than in the red zone in 2025. Cleveland ran 760 first- and second-down plays at 33.4% success and -0.15 EPA per play, 31st. Red-zone plays were 129 at 34.9% success and -0.08 EPA, 24th. Early downs are first and second down anywhere on the field, not only the start of a drive. The gap between 31st and 24th shows Cleveland was less efficient on early downs, but it doesn't establish that the red-zone problem stemmed from early-down mistakes.

On EPA, David Njoku was the listed high in both historical samples: 0.95 per play in the red zone and 0.28 on early downs. Harold Fannin Jr. exceeded expected fantasy production in both displayed samples, 3.25 FPavg against 2.03 xFPavg in the red zone and 1.91 FP/TGT against 1.58 xFP/TGT on early downs. Njoku is no longer on the roster. Fannin is TE1 now, in front of a rebuilt line. Whether that new front can finally get Cleveland comfortable on early downs is the actual question for 2026.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -5.5 (#28); they passed 49.0% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Shedeur Sanders (33.6% success on 235 pass plays), Dillon Gabriel (31.9% success on 204 pass plays), Joe Flacco (33.3% success on 168 pass plays).

On rushes: Quinshon Judkins (33.3% success on 231 rush plays), Dylan Sampson (26.2% success on 65 rush plays), Raheim Sanders (40.7% success on 27 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Overall pass rate was 59.2%, while neutral-down PROE was -5.5 with a 49.0% pass rate, showing a much more run-leaning neutral tendency. The offense logged 609 pass plays (12th) and 419 rush plays (25th). Neither worked. Pass plays averaged 4.61 yards (30th) at a 32.8% success rate (32nd). Rush plays averaged 3.95 yards (30th) at 37.0% success (31st). Quinshon Judkins carried 231 rush plays at 33.3% success; Dylan Sampson's 65 plays sat at 26.2%. Despite the line changes, Judkins is still running into that same inefficiency.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Cleveland generated 41 explosive plays, 30th in the league, and almost all of it was through the air: 35 passes against six rushes. Harold Fannin Jr. led the sample, with Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman next, and the offense beat Cover 3 most often. The defense allowed 57 explosives, 16th, with DK Metcalf the opponent leader. Cover 2 allowed the largest raw number, 11 explosives for 284 yards, then Cover 1 and Cover 3.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Cleveland split 2025 almost evenly between 12 and 11 personnel: 476 plays of 12 and 473 of 11, with Isaiah Bond among the primary receivers in the three-wide package. Twelve personnel paid better, 1.17 fantasy points per play against 0.99. Shotgun was the base at 65.8% of plays and also the better fantasy look at 1.21 per snap, versus 0.81 under center. Those are separate findings. The 2025 data do not cross-tab personnel and formation, so they do not identify 12-from-shotgun as a single optimal package.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #26; play-action rank #17 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Motion and play action produced more fantasy points per snap when used in 2025 despite relatively modest usage rates. Cleveland used pre-snap motion on 49.5% of plays, 26th in the league, and those plays averaged 1.16 fantasy points per snap compared to 0.98 without motion. Play action came in at 13.7% of plays (17th in frequency) but generated 1.37 fantasy points per snap versus 1.02 without it.

Those 2025 gaps are the part worth keeping. Motion produced better fantasy output per snap than the plays without it, and play action did the same, so both are schematic avenues Monken can explore.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Cleveland finished last season with the NFL's worst passer rating at 71.8. Completions sat at a league-low 58.2 percent of throws. Yards per attempt were 6.0, 31st in the NFL, with a 3.2% touchdown rate (30th), a league-high 3.5% interception rate, and an 8.1% sack rate (25th). Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel combined for 13 starts. Sanders posted -0.32 EPA per dropback and -3.5% CPOE across eight DraftKings games (12.7 average, one Slate Hit). Gabriel was -0.27 EPA and -5.7% CPOE across ten games (7.4 average, zero Slate Hits).

Warren Sharp ranks the quarterbacks 31st. Watson leads the depth chart with Shedeur Sanders as the backup and Taylen Green third; Dillon Gabriel is on injured reserve, designated to return, with a back injury. Watson missed all of 2025 after re-rupturing his Achilles in rehab. In his most recent season with game action, 2024, he averaged 5.3 yards per attempt with a league-high 13.3% sack rate across seven games, and since 2020 he has played 19 total games. His 2026 start through two games has been efficient, but that alone does not establish whether his 2024 tape is obsolete or just paused on a line Sharp still ranks 32nd.

Protection is still the constraint. Barber has started both games at right guard; Teven Jenkins is listed first on the unofficial depth chart but has not played and is out for Week 3. How that group holds up will decide whether Concepcion and Boston keep getting the ball in rhythm, not whether Watson still has to win a job.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Cleveland’s wide receivers combined for a league-low 6.9 receptions and 86.3 receiving yards per game, with only four receiving touchdowns all season. The passing-game volume lived with the tight ends. Harold Fannin Jr. led the club with 107 targets and a 24.9% share across 16 games, including 76 early-down targets and 11 in the red zone. Jerry Jeudy had 106 targets and an 18.1% share with 11.9 air yards per target, but -41.4 Receiving EPA and only two scores. David Njoku turned 48 targets in 11 games into an 18.0% share and four touchdowns; he and Jeudy each saw nine red-zone looks. Cedric Tillman, the one perimeter piece with positive Receiving EPA last year (+5.1 on 39 targets), was waived before final cuts.

Isaiah Bond (44 targets, 16.5 air yards per target) was the 2025 deep option. Dylan Sampson and Quinshon Judkins both saw 30-plus early-down targets, which is how this offense survived third-and-long. Warren Sharp ranks the receivers 30th, but the 2026 room is already different: Jeudy, Denzel Boston, and KC Concepcion are the starting wideouts, with Fannin leading the tight ends.

The rookies are already changing the hierarchy. Boston has seven catches for 154 yards and two scores. Concepcion already has 10 catches for 71 yards plus four rushing attempts. Fannin has seven catches for 75 yards. Jeudy has two receptions for 26 yards. Last year's volume chart still centered on Jeudy next to Fannin. The first two weeks point elsewhere.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Cleveland running backs averaged 3.4 yards per carry, last in the league, and ranked 31st in success rate. The line did not help: 0.38 yards before contact per rush, last of 448 team-seasons since 2012. Quinshon Judkins still logged 230 carries, 827 yards, and seven touchdowns in 14 games as a rookie, with a -38.3 Rush EPA, 33.0% NFL+ success, and +0.2 RYOE per attempt. He gained five or more yards on 25% of carries, last of 55 backs, and was still last when he crossed the line without contact. Dylan Sampson added 65 carries and 446 yards from scrimmage with two total touchdowns.

Warren Sharp ranks the backfield 26th. Judkins has the job. Availability is not the question: he has 24 carries for 54 yards, 2.25 yards per carry, plus seven receptions for 44 yards. Raheim Sanders has moved into the primary reserve role. Sampson went on injured reserve September 15 with a knee injury, and Cleveland promoted Jaleel McLaughlin. Through two games Sanders has three carries and four receptions while McLaughlin has one carry.

The line reconstruction was supposed to be the rushing-game story. Barber has started both games at right guard while Teven Jenkins remains listed but unused and is out for Week 3, yet the run game remains inefficient. That is almost a perfect continuation of last year's problem: the personnel changed up front, and Judkins is still struggling on early downs.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Harold Fannin Jr. 7 (1 rush, 6 rec); Quinshon Judkins 7 rush; David Njoku 4 rec. Passing TDs: Dillon Gabriel 7, Shedeur Sanders 7. Defense TDs: Devin Bush (2 def TD); Tyson Campbell (1 def TD). Special teams: Andre Szmyt 24/27 FG, 25/26 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

Last year's scoring engine was short. Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin Jr. each scored seven touchdowns, Judkins on the ground and Fannin on six receiving scores plus one rushing. David Njoku added four receiving touchdowns, and Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders each threw seven. Devin Bush had two defensive scores and Tyson Campbell the other. Andre Szmyt went 24-of-27 on field goals and 25-of-26 on extra points, with no return touchdowns.

Through two games, the 2026 scoring has already widened. Denzel Boston has scored in both weeks, and Watson has thrown three touchdowns. Fannin and Judkins were last year's inside-the-20 volume; they are no longer the only way Cleveland puts points on the board.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Cleveland's "best" scoring quarter was still 27th: 5.2 points per game in the second. The third quarter collapsed to 2.7 (29th), and the fourth was last in the league at 4.1. Fourth-quarter fantasy volume (19.6, 27th) did not come with NFL points.

The defense was the inverse before halftime. Second-quarter points allowed were 5.2, seventh-fewest, then the first quarter was 5.6 (27th on the fewest-allowed scale) and the fourth 6.4 (16th). Those are 2025 quarter splits.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #6, Secondary #10.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Carson Schwesinger led the club with 156 tackles; Myles Garrett 23.0 sacks, Maliek Collins 6.5 sacks, Alex Wright 5.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Carson Schwesinger: 11 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 2 INT, 3 PD; Devin Bush: 7 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 3 INT, 8 PD; Ronnie Hickman Jr.: 1 TFL, 2 INT, 7 PD; Grant Delpit: 4 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 1 INT, 4 PD; Tyson Campbell: 2 TFL, 1 INT, 18 PD; Myles Garrett: 33 TFL, 23.0 sacks, 1 PD; Maliek Collins: 7 TFL, 6.5 sacks; Alex Wright: 12 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 1 PD.

Warren Sharp still ranks Cleveland's front seven sixth despite the Myles Garrett trade, a ranking that tests itself immediately. Garrett was a singular force—23.0 sacks, 33 tackles for loss, 39 quarterback hits—and the unit's preseason evaluation assumes Jared Verse can contribute replacement production. Verse arrived with a 20.7% pressure rate on traditional three-step-plus dropbacks, eighth in the league and a tick ahead of Garrett's 20.3%. That pressure metric is not a sack replacement, but it suggests the pass-rush philosophy survives the personnel change. Through two weeks Verse has five tackles and zero sacks; that is incompleteness, not indictment.

Carson Schwesinger led the club with 156 tackles and 11 tackles for loss, adding 2.5 sacks and two interceptions. Mason Graham had 49 tackles and seven tackles for loss from the interior. Quincy Williams is the linebacker add. Kalia Davis, the interior signing, is on injured reserve and is not part of the current front. The secondary is largely unchanged—Tyson Campbell, Denzel Ward, Ronnie Hickman Jr., Grant Delpit are back—and Sharp had Cleveland ninth in completion rate allowed on passes 10-plus yards downfield, suggesting adequate coverage discipline even without Garrett's penetration.

Jacksonville's 34 points and four passing touchdowns in Week 1 said the defense could not simply reload and maintain the 2025 standard. Week 2 against Tampa Bay (19 points, Mayfield intercepted by Myles Harden) suggested the unit might still function without Garrett. The tension is real: what Verse and the new interior faces produce over the next 15 weeks will determine whether Sharp's sixth-ranked evaluation holds or whether losing Garrett dropped the group into the middle tier.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Cleveland lived in single-high, and Cover 1 allowed 1.44 fantasy points per play (second-stingiest) on 195 snaps while Cover 3 sat at 1.37 (third) on 153. Cover 2 ranked 11th at 1.59, Cover 4 was the hole at 2.51 points per play (28th) on only 36 snaps, and Cover 0 was 5.49 per snap in a 23-snap sample.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Andre Szmyt: 24/27 FG, 25/26 PAT.

Corey Bojorquez led with 91 punts (23 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Malachi Corley: 21 returns for 492 yards.

Punt returner Gage Larvadain: 24 returns for 167 yards.

Special teams tackler Rayshawn Jenkins: 19 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Andre Szmyt went 24-of-27 on field goals and 25-of-26 on extra points, with a long of 55. Corey Bojorquez punted 91 times. Malachi Corley remains the kickoff returner. Gage Larvadain handled punts last year and was waived at cutdown; KC Concepcion is the punt returner. Rayshawn Jenkins led coverage with 19 special-teams tackles in 2025.

Penalty Analysis

Warren Sharp assigns the Browns a B- for Penalties & Discipline, and the split is the whole grade. What makes the evaluation interesting is that it comes from two different halves of the same club: a defense that ranks among the league's cleanest, and an offense whose problems were concentrated in repeatable holding and pre-snap mistakes.

The defense generated the league's most false starts by opponents and ranked ninth in drawing delay-of-game flags—a distinction made more remarkable by the fact that Cleveland rarely had second-half leads that force opponents into desperation. The unit co-ranked first with Cincinnati in yielding the fewest automatic first downs via penalty per game, which suggests a secondary capable of defending without fouling and a rush that creates pressure without jumping offsides. That is the defensive standard Mike Rutenberg inherited.

The offense's 70 penalties for 518 yards represent a different problem entirely. While the club improved from dead last in 2024, it still ranked 26th. Pre-snap infractions (45.5% of all flags) were the primary issue, with false start and delay of game accounting for 68% of those early mistakes. The offense was also worse in the fourth quarter, averaging 2.18 penalties per game compared to 1.59 in first halves. The fourth-quarter spike is worth monitoring; the split itself cannot determine whether fatigue, game script, or line stress caused it. Todd Monken inherits an offense that commits penalties early, piles them up late, and struggles with pre-snap discipline. The defense already has a standard. That is the problem Monken must solve.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 70 penalties for 518 yards (#26). Most common: Offensive Holding (21), False Start (21), Delay of Game (11). Most flags in Under Center (18), Shotgun (15). Most flagged players: KT Leveston (10), Cam Robinson (8), Harold Fannin Jr. (5).

Defense: 38 penalties for 322 yards (#5), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Offside (6), Defensive Pass Interference (6), Defensive Holding (6). Most flags on Cover 1 (10), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (4). Most flagged players: Myles Garrett (6), Myles Harden (6), Shelby Harris (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Holding and false start led the offensive flags (21 each), then delay of game (11). Intentional grounding (4) and offensive pass interference (3) rounded out the rest. On defense the sample split evenly: six offsides, six DPI, six defensive holdings, plus three neutral-zone infractions and four unnecessary roughness flags.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Harold Fannin TE6, Quinshon Judkins RB21.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Quinshon Judkins (12.0 FPavg), Harold Fannin Jr. (11.6 FPavg), Shedeur Sanders (10.6 FPavg), David Njoku (7.8 FPavg), Jerry Jeudy (7.1 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Harold Fannin Jr. led Cleveland's 2025 scoring against every primary coverage, including Cover 3, the heaviest look. Jerry Jeudy was the next Cover 3 and Cover 1 card. David Njoku showed up in Cover 2, Cover 4, and 2 Man. Cover 4 paid the most per play among the real samples. Boston and Concepcion are already pulling 2026 volume toward the rookie wideouts; last year's coverage leaders are the historical map, not this year's target order.

Skill losses: DeAndre Carter (WR), Jerome Ford (RB) to the Commanders, and Trayveon Williams (RB).

Skill draft picks: KC Concepcion (WR, Rd 1, Texas A&M), Denzel Boston (WR, Rd 2, Washington), Joe Royer (TE, Rd 5, Cincinnati), Taylen Green (QB, Rd 6, Arkansas), and Carsen Ryan (TE, Rd 7, BYU).

Harold Fannin Jr. was the 2025 passing-game volume, and Sharp ranks him TE6. Quinshon Judkins was the rushing volume, RB21, with a thin weekly floor and a spike when the red-zone work landed. Jerry Jeudy remains a current starter with a 17-game 2025 DraftKings sample. KC Concepcion and Denzel Boston have no 2025 NFL salary sample (rookies). Watson has none either (injury).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Harold Fannin Jr. combined a playable floor with real spike weeks. Across 16 DraftKings games he averaged 12.1 points with an 8.4 floor, a 20.4 ceiling, and three Slate Hits at $3,700 on 107 targets while Shedeur Sanders, Dillon Gabriel, and Joe Flacco split the starts. Those are 2025 numbers.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Quinshon Judkins had tournament shape: 12.0 average, 4.7 floor, 21.5 ceiling, one Slate Hit in 14 games. The ceiling came with 33 red-zone rushes and seven touchdowns. The 2025 card is that spike profile, not this year's 2.25 yards per carry.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Jerry Jeudy had a 17-game sample: 7.2 average, 4.2 floor, 11.6 ceiling, one Slate Hit at $4,400 and 1.61 fantasy points per thousand. The floor is thin. The one qualifying hit is why the 2025 shape is GPP.

Inside Scoop

Cleveland went 5-12 last season, and Warren Sharp's preseason forecast was 6.5 wins with a fourth-place finish in the AFC North. That preseason case leaned heavily on a defense that was not a mirage in 2025. The Browns ranked first in yards allowed per drive and sixth in points per drive allowed, and the front seven is still ranked sixth even after Myles Garrett went to the Rams. The 5-12 record is incomplete because the offense that canceled that defense is the one Cleveland actually rebuilt: a new line, two high draft receivers, and Watson back from his Achilles injury.

The first two weeks already pulled that thesis in opposite directions. Jacksonville was 34-10, the kind of night that said nothing had changed. Tampa Bay was 23-19, with Watson playing efficient football, Boston producing another explosive touchdown, and Cleveland finishing two second-half scoring drives to win. The rebuilt run game is still stuck at 2.25 yards per Judkins carry, and the Garrett-less pass rush has not yet replaced his production. Two games cannot settle whether Week 2 is the new offense or one competitive afternoon.

That tension is what drives the Browns story forward. Sharp's preseason snapshot installed them as underdogs in 15 of 17 games with a 3.8 average line, 2.1 at home and 5.2 on the road, favorites only against Las Vegas and Atlanta. Their 4-13 ATS record in 2025 was worse than the 5-12 standings, and an 8-9 record to the over split almost evenly. The 2025 DFS profiles are historical: Fannin had the floor-plus-ceiling sample of a GPP/Cash tight end, Judkins' 4.7 floor and 21.5 ceiling were tournament-shaped, and Jeudy's 17-game card was the same GPP shape. Those are last year's archetypes rather than weekly 2026 plays, but they sit on the same tension. If Watson's start holds and the defense that carried 2025 still looks like itself, last year's 5-12 season can look like an interruption. If the run game stays inefficient and the rush never replaces Garrett, it looks like the same team with new names.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.