NFL 2026 PREVIEW: DALLAS COWBOYS

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 campaign looking to rebound from a disappointing 7-9-1 finish in 2025, a season defined by high-scoring offense but the league's worst scoring defense. Warren Sharp’s forecast projects 9.5 wins for the club, slotting them second in their division despite facing a brutal slate of opponents. The Strength of Schedule ranks 29 on a scale where 32 is the hardest, marking the fourth-most difficult path in the league. Roster evaluation highlights a stark contrast in unit quality, with the receiving corps standing as the strongest position group at number one overall. Conversely, the running backs and head coach roles are identified as the weakest links, both ranking twenty-third. Balancing elite pass-catching talent against a tough schedule will define this team's upside.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling slate numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key additions: Jalen Thompson (S), Von Miller (EDGE), Cobie Durant (CB), P.J. Locke (S), Otito Ogbonnia (IDL), and Rashan Gary (EDGE) via trade.

Key departures: Osa Odighizuwa (IDL) to the 49ers, Jadeveon Clowney (EDGE) to the Texans, Logan Wilson (LB), Kenneth Murray (LB), Donovan Wilson (S), and Dante Fowler Jr. (EDGE).

The coaching continuity on offense pairs with a significant defensive overhaul under new leadership. Head Coach Brian Schottenheimer enters his second season, while Offensive Coordinator Klayton Adams also returns for a second year, providing stability for a unit featuring the league’s top-ranked receivers but its 23rd-ranked running backs. The defense sees Christian Parker take over as Defensive Coordinator in his first season, inheriting a front seven ranked 17th and a secondary ranked 21st. Sharp’s assessment ranks the head coach 23rd out of 32 teams, suggesting that while the offensive structure remains familiar, the defensive identity will be reshaped by Parker’s initial imprint and substantial roster churn.

Personnel changes heavily favor the secondary and edge rush, offsetting key losses in the interior and linebacker corps. The Cowboys added safety Jalen Thompson, cornerback Cobie Durant, and safety P.J. Locke to bolster a backfield that lost Donovan Wilson. Edge pressure gets a homecoming boost from Von Miller on a one-year deal, while Otito Ogbonnia joins the interior line. These additions must compensate for the departure of interior lineman Osa Odighizuwa to the 49ers, edge Jadeveon Clowney to the Texans, pass rusher Dante Fowler Jr., and linebackers Logan Wilson and Kenneth Murray. Bettors should note that despite these moves, the team faces the fourth-hardest schedule according to Sharp’s SOS scale, which could test the depth of a roster undergoing such comprehensive defensive transition.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

The Cowboys addressed their secondary and pass rush with high-upside selections in the first round, headlined by safety Caleb Downs and defensive end Malachi Lawrence. Downs brings immediate versatility to a group that now includes returning holdover Malik Hooker and free agent addition Jalen Thompson, creating a surplus of starting-caliber options at safety. His ability to play both deep coverage and aggressively in the box allows the coaching staff to deploy him in nickel packages or potentially rotate out other veterans during training camp. On the edge, Lawrence adds explosive speed to a crowded rotation that features trade acquisition Rashan Gary and returning players Sam Williams and James Houston. While he may initially serve as a situational pass rusher on third downs, his athletic profile suggests he can develop into a three-down contributor under coordinator Christian Parker.

Later rounds focused on adding depth and developmental talent to the front seven and offensive line. Third-round pick Jaishawn Barham offers a hybrid skill set, having transitioned from off-ball linebacker at Maryland to an edge role at Michigan, though his coverage limitations may restrict him to sub-package duties until he improves his anticipation. The team also invested in the trenches with fourth-round selections, including Penn State tackle Drew Shelton, who projects as a developmental lineman, along with Florida cornerback Devin Moore and Alabama defensive tackle LT Overton. These additions provide necessary competition and depth across multiple units, helping to bolster a roster that finished 7-9-1 in the previous season while preparing for a challenging schedule ahead.

Sharp Forecasts Dallas Cowboys with 9.5 Wins

The case for clearing the 9.5-win threshold rests on an offense that proved highly efficient despite a lackluster 7-9-1 finish in 2025. Dallas ranked ninth in offensive health, allowing key contributors like Dak Prescott, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson to remain on the field throughout the season, while CeeDee Lamb missed only three games and Javonte Williams sat out just Week 18. This availability helped the unit finish fourth in yards per play at 5.9, fifth in points per drive at 2.56, and seventh in scoring at 27.7 points per game. Even with this production, the Cowboys left significant upside untapped, ranking 18th in red-zone touchdown rate at 56.9 percent despite possessing elite receiving talent. With the core skill players returning and the addition of Sam Howell providing depth, the offense has the firepower to keep Dallas competitive in any matchup, regardless of the opponent.

However, the path to double-digit wins is obstructed by a defense that ranked among the league's worst scoring units in 2025 and a schedule that offers little reprieve. The unit finished last in the NFL in several critical categories, including yards allowed per play at 6.1, explosive-play rate allowed, and points per drive allowed at 2.88, while surrendering 377.0 yards per game. Unlike previous seasons where penalty luck or soft scheduling might have masked deficiencies, Dallas faces the fourth-hardest strength of schedule in 2026, ranked 29th on Sharp’s scale. The team failed to capitalize on a softer schedule last year, going just 1-5 against playoff qualifiers, and must now navigate a harder band of opponents without the benefit of favorable penalty margins, which were already razor-thin. While the offense can score, the defensive liabilities and tough road ahead make sustaining a win rate above .500 a steep challenge.

Schedule Timing & Rest

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 season with a distinct structural advantage in schedule timing, ranking first in both net rest edge and overall rest rank, with a cumulative +12 days of rest advantage. This favorable alignment is driven by five specific weeks where the team holds a rest edge, including significant advantages in Weeks 6, 13, and 15, which should help mitigate the physical toll of a slate that Sharp ranks as the fourth-hardest in the NFL. Although the preparation rank sits at 29th, suggesting potential challenges in weekly game planning or practice continuity, the sheer volume of extra recovery time provides a tangible buffer for a roster that finished 7-9-1 in 2025. The combination of top-tier rest metrics and a difficult strength of schedule implies that health management will be critical, but the calendar itself is engineered to keep the unit fresher than most competitors over the full eighteen-week grind.

Travel logistics further support this rest-heavy profile, as the Cowboys rank third in short-week road games and fourth in avoiding off-road Sunday or Monday night football assignments, reducing the disruption typically caused by late-night away contests. The bye week in Week 14 is not negated, preserving its traditional value for mid-season recovery rather than being wasted on a timing quirk. With an average betting line of -1.1 and a projection of 9.5 wins, these scheduling tailwinds offer a hidden layer of value for bettors who might otherwise focus solely on the difficulty of the opponents. The team will face eleven games as a favorite and six as an underdog, and the ability to leverage superior rest during key stretches could be the deciding factor in covering those spreads against a tough lineup.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways 21 (#19): 12 interceptions thrown (#17) and 9 fumbles lost (#25). Takeaways 11 (#30): 6 interceptions (#29) and 5 fumbles recovered (#24).

Giveaways: Dak Prescott (10 INT, 2 FL), Joe Milton III (2 INT, 1 FL), Javonte Williams (2 FL). Takeaways: Donovan Wilson (2 INT), Jadeveon Clowney (2 FR), James Houston (1 FR)

The Dallas Cowboys entered the 2026 campaign with a turnover profile that heavily favored their opponents, finishing the prior season with a negative-10 differential. The offense was responsible for 21 giveaways, ranking 19th in the league, which included 12 interceptions thrown and nine fumbles lost. Dak Prescott accounted for 12 giveaways with 10 interceptions and two fumbles lost, while Joe Milton III added two interceptions and one fumble lost. On the ground, Javonte Williams contributed two lost fumbles. This lack of ball security was compounded by a defense that struggled to create opportunities, managing only 11 takeaways overall. That figure placed the unit 30th in the league, as they recorded just six interceptions and five recovered fumbles.

Individual defensive playmakers provided some spark despite the low team totals, with Donovan Wilson leading the secondary with two INT before his departure. Jadeveon Clowney recovered two fumbles and James Houston recovered one, but these efforts were insufficient to offset the offensive mistakes. With key departures like Donovan Wilson and the addition of new personnel such as Rashan Gary and Jalen Thompson, the roster has changed, but the historical data highlights a clear need for improvement in possession management. Bettors and fantasy managers should note that the team’s 7-9-1 record from the previous year coincided with this inability to win the turnover battle, suggesting that reducing giveaways and increasing takeaways will be critical for reaching the projected 9.5 wins.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Dak Prescott 208 yards.

Sack leaders (defense): Jadeveon Clowney (8.5), James Houston (5.5), Osa Odighizuwa (3.5), Kenny Clark (3)

Dak Prescott absorbed 208 yards in lost yardage due to sacks, a figure that reflects the pressure faced behind an offensive line ranked 18th by Sharp. The unit surrendered 31 total sacks, which placed them ninth in the league for fewest allowed, indicating relatively solid protection overall despite the yardage loss. Most of this pressure occurred out of the shotgun formation, where the Cowboys gave up 23 sacks, ranking seventh in the NFL for fewest allowed in that specific alignment. They allowed seven sacks under center and only one from pistol formations.

On the defensive side, the Cowboys generated 35 sacks, a total that ranked 22nd in the league. Jadeveon Clowney led the pass rush with 8.5 sacks, followed by James Houston with 5.5. Osa Odighizuwa, who is listed among the confirmed departures for 2026, contributed 3.5 sacks, while Kenny Clark added 3.0. The defense found its most success when sending five rushers, recording 12 sacks on such plays to rank sixth in the NFL. In contrast, they struggled to generate pressure with standard four-man rushes, managing only 20 sacks in those situations, which ranked 28th. Coverage schemes also played a role, with 12 sacks coming in Cover 3 and nine in Cover 1.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 0 (#13). No punt or kickoff return touchdowns.

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 0 (#1). No punt or kickoff return touchdowns allowed.

Punt returns 13 for 82 yards; kickoff returns 82 for 2097 yards.

The Dallas Cowboys did not record a single touchdown on punt or kickoff returns during the 2025 season, a result that placed them thirteenth in the league for scoring in this specific phase of special teams. While the unit failed to find the end zone, they remained active in the return game by fielding 13 punts for a total of 82 yards and handling 82 kickoffs for 2,097 yards. This volume indicates that opportunities were present for big plays, but the returners could not convert those chances into scores, leaving the team without any explosive special teams touchdowns to their credit.

Defensively, the Cowboys’ coverage units were equally effective at preventing opponents from scoring on returns, as they allowed zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns. This perfect defensive record in the return game ranked first in the league, highlighting a strong ability to limit yardage and prevent breakaway runs after catches. By combining a shutout on defense with their own lack of scoring, the special teams profile shows a group that prioritized stability and field position over high-risk attempts that might lead to return touchdowns.

Penalties

Offense: 75 penalties for 619 yards (#31) — 56% of the team's 133 penalties. Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (23), Delay of Game (6). Most flags in Shotgun (22), Under Center (9). Most flagged players: Tyler Smith (7), George Pickens (7), Tyler Guyton (7).

Defense: 58 penalties for 517 yards (#31) — 44% of team penalties. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Offside (8), Offensive Holding (6). Most flags in Cover 1 (14), Cover 3 (8), Cover 4 (5). Most flagged players: Sam Williams (4), Reddy Steward (4), Brandon Aubrey (4).

The Dallas Cowboys offense was a major contributor to the team’s league-worst penalty profile, accounting for 75 infractions that cost 619 yards and ranked 31st in the NFL. These offensive flags represented 56% of the squad’s total 133 penalties. Offensive Holding was the most frequent offensive issue with 25 occurrences, followed closely by 23 False Starts and 6 Delay of Game calls. The Shotgun formation drew the most attention from officials with 22 penalties, while Under Center sets resulted in 9 flags. Individual discipline issues were spread across key contributors, as Tyler Smith, George Pickens, and Tyler Guyton each drew 7 penalties.

On the other side of the ball, Dallas was charged with 58 penalties on plays classified to the defensive side, totaling 517 yards, also ranking 31st in the league and making up 44% of the team’s total infractions. Defensive Pass Interference and Defensive Offside were tied for the most common defensive penalties with 8 instances each, while Offensive Holding still appeared 6 times on defensive snaps. Coverage schemes played a role in these counts, with Cover 1 drawing 14 penalties, Cover 3 resulting in 8, and Cover 4 seeing 5 flags. Sam Williams, Reddy Steward, and Brandon Aubrey were the most frequently penalized players on this unit, with 4 flags apiece.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 862 plays, 46.5% success, 0.09 EPA/play (#5). Most efficient on early downs: George Pickens (94 plays, 0.53 EPA/play), Ryan Flournoy (39 plays, 0.50 EPA/play), Hunter Luepke (11 plays, 0.26 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 199 plays, 41.2% success, -0.06 EPA/play (#21). Most efficient in the red zone: Dak Prescott (8 plays, 0.52 EPA/play).

The Dallas Cowboys demonstrated elite efficiency on early downs during the 2025 season, ranking fifth in expected points added per play with a 0.09 mark across 862 plays. This unit achieved a 46.5% success rate in these situations, driven largely by high-impact performances from specific skill players. George Pickens led the way with 94 early-down plays, generating an impressive 0.53 EPA per play, while Ryan Flournoy contributed significantly with 39 plays and a 0.50 EPA average. Hunter Luepke also provided efficient production in limited volume, recording 11 plays with a 0.26 EPA per play figure.

Red zone execution presented a starker contrast for the offense, which ranked 21st in EPA per play at -0.06 over 199 red-zone plays. The team managed a 41.2% success rate inside the 20-yard line, indicating struggles to maintain their early-down momentum near the goal line. Despite the overall unit ranking, Dak Prescott showed individual effectiveness in these compressed spaces, posting a 0.52 EPA per play across his eight red zone opportunities. This disparity between top-tier early down performance and middling red zone results highlights a key area for adjustment as the team looks to improve its scoring efficiency.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

Pass plays: 655 (#3). Pass rate: 59.3% (#8). Yards per pass play: 6.92 (#6). Pass-play success: 47.8% (#7).

Rush plays: 449 (#17). Rush rate: 40.7% (#25). Yards per rush: 4.78 (#7). Rush-play success: 45.0% (#8).

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -1.5 (#17); they passed 52.4% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): Dak Prescott (47.9% success on 631 pass plays), Joe Milton III (45.8% success on 24 pass plays).

On rushes: Javonte Williams (45.6% success on 252 rushes), Malik Davis (40.4% success on 52 rushes), Jaydon Blue (28.9% success on 38 rushes).

The Dallas Cowboys leaned heavily on their aerial attack last season, ranking eighth in the league with a 59.3% pass rate while generating the third-highest volume of pass plays at 655. This aggressive approach yielded efficient results, as the unit secured the sixth-best yards per pass play average of 6.92 and achieved a 47.8% success rate that ranked seventh overall. Dak Prescott led the charge with a 47.9% success rate across 631 pass plays, while Joe Milton III contributed a 45.8% success mark on his 24 opportunities. Despite the high volume of throws, the team did not abandon the run entirely on neutral downs, posting a pass rate over expected of -1.5 which placed them 17th in the league as they chose to throw on 52.4% of those specific snaps.

On the ground, the Cowboys operated with less frequency but maintained strong efficiency, ranking 25th in rush rate at 40.7% across 449 total rush plays. The running game produced the seventh-best yards per rush average at 4.78 and secured an eighth-ranked success rate of 45.0%. Javonte Williams was the primary driver of this ground success, recording a 45.6% success rate on 252 rushes. Malik Davis supported the effort with a 40.4% success rate on 52 carries, while Jaydon Blue logged a 28.9% success rate on his 38 attempts. The combination of high-efficiency rushing and a potent passing game defined the offensive balance for the team during the previous campaign.

Sharp's pass/rush map: QB unit #8, OL #18.**

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Offense: 69 explosives (#7) for 2242 yards (#6) — 56 pass, 13 rush.

Defense allowed: 72 explosives (#28) for 2276 yards (#31) — 58 pass, 14 rush.

Top explosive producers: George Pickens (REC: 22 for 667 yds), CeeDee Lamb (REC: 16 for 548 yds), KaVontae Turpin (REC: 6 for 244 yds).

Opponents who burned coverage: Wan'Dale Robinson (3), Malik Nabers (3), Quentin Johnston (3).

Coverages beaten most often: Cover 1 (22), Cover 3 (12), Cover 2 (10).

Coverages that sprung leaks: Cover 3 (22), Cover 1 (22), Cover 2 (7).

The Dallas Cowboys offense demonstrated significant big-play capability in 2025, generating 69 explosive plays for 2,242 yards, which ranked seventh and sixth respectively in the league. This production was heavily skewed toward the air attack, with 56 pass plays of 20 or more yards accounting for 1,841 of those yards, while the ground game contributed 13 rushes for 401 yards. George Pickens led the unit with 22 receptions resulting in explosive gains totaling 667 yards, followed by CeeDee Lamb, who recorded 16 such catches for 548 yards. KaVontae Turpin added six explosive receptions for 244 yards, and Javonte Williams chipped in with six rushing explosives for 192 yards, highlighting a passing-centric approach to moving the ball downfield.

Defensively, the Cowboys struggled to contain opponent big plays, allowing 72 explosives for 2,276 yards, rankings that placed them 28th and 31st in the NFL. The secondary surrendered 58 pass explosives for 1,863 yards, while the run defense gave up 14 rushes of 20 or more yards for 413 yards. Coverage schemes were frequently breached, with Cover 3 and Cover 1 each allowing 22 explosive plays, and Cover 2 yielding seven. Opposing receivers Wan'Dale Robinson, Malik Nabers, and Quentin Johnston each managed three explosive catches against the Dallas defense, underscoring vulnerabilities in both man and zone concepts that resulted in substantial yardage losses.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

The Dallas Cowboys leaned heavily on their 11 personnel package, which features one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers, using it for 757 plays to generate 1.49 full PPR fantasy points per play. This grouping relied on Javonte Williams, Jake Ferguson, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, and Ryan Flournoy as the primary contributors. The team also utilized 12 personnel with two tight ends for 221 snaps, producing 1.44 fantasy points per play with Luke Schoonmaker and Brevyn Spann-Ford joining the core group of Williams, Pickens, and Lamb. Although used sparingly, the 13 personnel set with three tight ends appeared on 20 plays and yielded a high efficiency of 2.07 fantasy points per play, featuring Ferguson, Schoonmaker, and Spann-Ford alongside Williams and Lamb.

In terms of alignment, the offense operated out of shotgun formation for 60.9% of its snaps, totaling 671 plays and averaging 1.65 fantasy points per play. Under center alignments accounted for 37.2% of the workload across 410 plays but resulted in a lower output of 1.28 fantasy points per play. The pistol formation saw minimal usage with just 21 plays, though it produced 1.78 fantasy points per snap. Run-pass options were integrated into these structures rather than standing alone as a unique formation, appearing on 58 plays for a 5.3% share and generating 0.94 fantasy points per play.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #11; play-action rank #5 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Over Case: Dak Prescott delivered a highly efficient campaign in 2025, ranking eighth among quarterback units according to Sharp’s assessment. He started all 17 games and posted a positive expected points added per dropback of +0.12 alongside a completion percentage over expectation of +4.6%. Prescott led the league with 404 completions on a volume-heavy approach that saw him attempt 600 passes, the second-most in the NFL. His accuracy was evident as he completed 67.3% of those throws for 7.6 yards per attempt, while limiting mistakes with a 1.7% interception rate. The quarterback also demonstrated strong pocket presence by taking sacks on only 4.9% of his dropbacks, which ranked ninth best in the league.

The offensive line unit is ranked eighteenth, providing a solid but not elite foundation for the passing attack. Prescott converted 36.7% of his pass attempts into first downs or touchdowns, an 11th-ranked mark that underscores the effectiveness of the downfield throwing game despite moderate line play. He threw 30 touchdowns against a 5% touchdown rate, balancing volume with scoring efficiency. With a contract extending through 2028, Prescott remains the entrenched starter; any future restructure is a salary-cap story more than a fantasy one.

Looking toward 2026, the Cowboys have added Sam Howell to the quarterback room, providing depth behind the established starter. The passing game benefits from a receiver group that Sharp ranks as the strongest in the league, ensuring Prescott has high-quality targets even if the offensive line continues to perform at an average level. The combination of Prescott’s low sack rate and the team’s elite receiving talent suggests the aerial attack will remain a primary weapon. Dallas will rely on this continuity and added quarterback depth to maintain their high-volume passing identity in the coming season.

Top two QBs. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Dallas Cowboys' receiving corps as the strongest unit in the league, a designation supported by the high-volume production from its top targets in 2025. George Pickens led the group with 137 targets, capturing a 22.7% team target share and averaging 17.9 DraftKings fantasy points per game. CeeDee Lamb operated as the other primary option, securing 117 targets for a 25.9% share and posting an average of 16.8 fantasy points across 14 games. Jake Ferguson anchored the tight end position with 102 targets and a 21.3% share, while Ryan Flournoy contributed significantly with 56 targets and a 20.7% share in his opportunities. KaVontae Turpin added depth with 38 targets, though his usage was more limited compared to the top three pass-catchers. TGT% here is each player's share of team targets in the games they appeared in (not a season-long share of all team targets), which is why Lamb's 25.9% can sit above Pickens' 22.7% despite fewer total targets.

In critical scoring situations, the Cowboys distributed red-zone looks among their most reliable weapons. Jake Ferguson leads at 24.0%, followed closely by George Pickens at 23.1% and CeeDee Lamb at 16.3%. This trio also dominated early-down usage, with Pickens leading at 22.1%, Lamb at 19.5%, and Ferguson at 17.8%. Ryan Flournoy showed efficiency in these early situations as well, converting his 8.2% share into solid production. The departure of Jalen Tolbert, who accounted for 34 total targets and a 4.8% red-zone share, opens up additional volume for the remaining holdovers and potential newcomers like drafted receiver Anthony Smith.

Looking toward 2026, the foundation of the passing attack remains intact with the return of Pickens, Lamb, and Ferguson, all of whom demonstrated high floors and ceilings in fantasy metrics. Pickens posted a ceiling of 32.6 fantasy points, while Lamb reached 25.0, indicating big-play potential alongside their consistent weekly outputs. Ferguson provided a steady baseline with a 7.3-point floor and a 21.2-point ceiling. With the receiving unit ranked number one by Sharp, the expectation is that these players will continue to drive the offense's success, absorbing the vacated targets from departed contributors and maintaining their elite status within the league.

Overall Targets

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp assigns the Cowboys’ running back unit a lowly #23 ranking, a grade that reflects both the personnel evaluation and the supporting cast, which includes an offensive line ranked #18. Javonte Williams served as the clear workhorse in 2025, leading the group with 252 carries for 1,201 rushing yards while posting a positive rush EPA of +5.9 and a success rate of 44.8%. Behind him, Malik Davis contributed 250 yards on 52 attempts across nine games, while Jaydon Blue added 129 yards on 38 carries in limited action. Hunter Luepke filled a specialized role with 71 rushing yards on 16 carries, and Miles Sanders recorded 117 yards on 20 attempts before his departure from the roster.

The red-zone rushing data highlights Williams’ dominance in high-leverage situations, as he recorded 12 total red-zone touchdowns across 66 red-zone opportunities, including 54 rushes and 12 targets. Malik Davis, Jaydon Blue, and Miles Sanders each found the end zone once via the run inside the 20, though their volume was significantly lower than Williams’. Hunter Luepke also secured one rushing touchdown despite minimal carry volume in that area. With Sanders gone, Williams remains the primary engine of a rushing attack that was efficient in 2025 even though Sharp ranks the 2026 running-back room just 23rd.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Dallas Cowboys entered the 2025 season with a potent offense that finished seventh in the league in real points per game, averaging 27.7 PPG. This scoring efficiency translated even more favorably in fantasy metrics, where the unit ranked third overall with 96.7 full PPR fantasy points per game. These metrics measure different things: PPG reflects scoreboard production, while FP/G aggregates individual full-PPR fantasy production. The disparity between the team's high offensive output and its final 7-9-1 record highlights how significant defensive struggles can negate strong scoring performances over a full campaign.

Defensive limitations severely hampered the team's overall standing, as they allowed 30.1 points per game, which ranked last in the NFL at number 32. This defensive vulnerability was equally apparent in fantasy terms, where opponents generated 99.1 full PPR fantasy points per game against Dallas, also finishing at the bottom of the league rankings. The combination of a top-tier offense and a bottom-tier defense created a volatile profile for the franchise, resulting in an average betting line of -1.1 despite the lopsided point differential. With a schedule strength ranked as the fourth-hardest in the league, balancing these extreme offensive and defensive tendencies will be essential for improving upon the previous year's win total.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Dallas Cowboys offense finds its rhythm most effectively in the second quarter, where it ranked first in the league for average points scored and second for full PPR fantasy points per game. This mid-first-half surge contrasts sharply with a sluggish start, as the unit posted only the 17th-best scoring rank and 12th-best fantasy output in the opening period. The production dips again after halftime, with third-quarter scoring falling to the 13th rank and fourth-quarter points landing at 16th, suggesting that while the offense can dominate a specific window, it lacks consistent threat levels across all four quarters of play.

Defensive vulnerabilities were most pronounced immediately following kickoff, as the Cowboys allowed the most points and the most full PPR fantasy points to opponents in the first quarter, ranking last in both categories. This early deficit often persisted; Dallas ranked 25th in points allowed and 30th in fantasy points allowed in the second quarter on the fewest-allowed scale before stabilizing slightly in the final two periods. Although third-quarter allowances improved to the 19th rank for points and 21st for fantasy metrics, the fourth quarter saw a regression to the 29th and 27th ranks respectively, indicating that closing out games remains a significant challenge for this unit.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #17, Secondary #21.

Defensive Studs

Note: Defensive counting stats are full 2025 season totals for players who appeared for Dallas; stats may include production with prior teams.

Shemar James led the club with 91 tackles; Jadeveon Clowney 8.5 sacks, James Houston 5.5 sacks, Osa Odighizuwa 3.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Shemar James: 2 TFL, 1.5 sacks; Kenneth Murray, Jr.: 4 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 2 PD; DaRon Bland: 3 TFL, 1 INT, 6 PD; Donovan Wilson: 3 TFL, 2 INT, 5 PD; Logan Wilson: 5 PD; Reddy Steward: 5 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 3 PD.

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 season with a defense that Sharp ranks 17th in the Front 7 and 21st in the Secondary, reflecting a unit undergoing significant personnel turnover. The team lost key contributors including interior lineman Osa Odighizuwa, linebackers Logan Wilson and Kenneth Murray, and safeties Donovan Wilson and Juanyeh Thomas. To offset these departures, the front office added edge rusher Rashan Gary via trade and signed Texas native Von Miller to a one-year homecoming deal. The secondary received reinforcements through the additions of safety Jalen Thompson, cornerback Cobie Durant, and safety P.J. Locke, while Otito Ogbonnia was brought in to help stabilize the interior defensive line. These moves aim to replace the production of players like Jadeveon Clowney (Texans), Dante Fowler Jr., and Solomon Thomas, who are no longer with the club.

Individual statistical leaders from the prior season highlight areas where new depth is critical. Shemar James led the team with 91 tackles, though his impact behind the line was modest with two tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. Jadeveon Clowney provided the most pressure with 8.5 sacks, supported by James Houston’s 5.5 sacks. In coverage and disruption, DaRon Bland recorded three tackles for loss, one interception, and six passes defended, while the departed Donovan Wilson contributed two interceptions and five passes defended. The draft class adds further competition, with selections such as safety Caleb Downs, defensive end Malachi Lawrence, and linebacker Jaishawn Barham joining returning holdovers like Reddy Steward, who posted five tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. This blend of veteran acquisitions and young talent will determine if the unit can improve upon its middling sharp rankings.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams

Brandon Aubrey: 36/42 FG, 47/48 PAT.

Bryan Anger led with 41 punts (14 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner KaVontae Turpin (player KR yards only): 69 returns for 1814 yards.

Punt returner KaVontae Turpin (player PR yards only): 10 returns for 55 yards.

KaVontae Turpin combined KR+PR: 1869 yards (player). Team kickoff-return yards = 2097.

Special teams tackler Brevyn Spann-Ford: 20 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Brandon Aubrey remains the cornerstone of the unit, converting 36 of 42 field goal attempts for an 85.7% success rate while drilling eight kicks from 50 yards or longer, including a long of 64 yards. He was nearly perfect on extra points, hitting 47 of 48 tries. Bryan Anger handled the punting duties exclusively, dropping 41 punts with 14 landing inside the opponent’s 20-yard line and none blocked. KaVontae Turpin served as the primary return specialist, accumulating 1,814 kickoff-return yards on 69 returns and adding 55 punt-return yards on 10 attempts for a combined personal total of 1,869 yards.

Brevyn Spann-Ford led the group in coverage production, recording 20 combined tackles across punt and kickoff units. The team generated 2,097 total kickoff return yards, distinct from Turpin’s individual contribution, while totaling 82 punt return yards as a unit. These core contributors provide a stable foundation for special teams performance heading into the next campaign.

Penalty Analysis

Dallas entered the 2025 campaign with a reputation for undisciplined play that was fully justified by their league-leading total in penalties called against them. The offense was particularly prone to holding infractions, ranking first in the NFL for offensive holding penalties per game, while the unit as a whole sat in the top ten for pre-snap mistakes. Special teams also contributed to the chaos, averaging the second-most penalties per game in that phase. Perhaps most damaging to drive sustainability was the team’s tendency to foul up on critical downs, as they averaged the most third-down penalties per game. This lack of composure extended to behavioral issues, with the Cowboys ranking first in both unsportsmanlike conduct and unnecessary roughness penalties per game, factors that significantly inflated their overall per-game average.

Despite the high volume of flags thrown against them, the Cowboys managed to create a unique dynamic where they were also frequent beneficiaries of officiating calls. Their offense accounted for 56% of the team’s total penalties, which is notably above the league average of 47.7%, suggesting the offense bore the brunt of the disciplinary issues. On the other side of the ball, Dallas ranked first in generating penalties against opposing offenses, though it remains unclear whether this stemmed from defensive dominance or simply a sloppy, penalty-filled game environment. Dallas benefited heavily from roughing-the-passer and defensive pass-interference calls; Lamb and Pickens were especially effective at drawing DPI. That ability to draw favorable flags helped Dallas secure the third-highest net advantage in automatic first downs via penalty, offsetting some of the self-inflicted wounds from their own undisciplined play.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 75 penalties for 619 yards (#31) — 56% of the team's 133 penalties. Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (23), Delay of Game (6). Most flags in Shotgun (22), Under Center (9). Most flagged players: Tyler Smith (7), George Pickens (7), Tyler Guyton (7).

Defense: 58 penalties for 517 yards (#31) — 44% of team penalties. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Offside (8), Offensive Holding (6). Most flags in Cover 1 (14), Cover 3 (8), Cover 4 (5). Most flagged players: Sam Williams (4), Reddy Steward (4), Brandon Aubrey (4).

The Dallas Cowboys offense was a primary driver of the team’s disciplinary issues, accounting for 75 penalties that resulted in 619 yards lost. This unit generated 56% of the franchise's 133 total infractions, with Offensive Holding leading the way at 25 calls and False Starts following closely with 23. Delay of Game violations added another six flags to the tally. These mistakes were most frequent when the offense operated out of the Shotgun formation, which drew 22 penalties, compared to nine flags while Under Center. Individual accountability was spread among key contributors, as Tyler Smith, George Pickens, and Tyler Guyton each absorbed seven personal penalties during the season.

On the other side of the ball, the defensive-side grouping accounted for 58 penalties for 517 yards, representing 44% of the team’s total infractions. The most common defensive errors were Defensive Pass Interference and Defensive Offside, with eight occurrences each, while six flags were categorized as Offensive Holding against the defense. Coverage schemes played a significant role in these outcomes, with Cover 1 drawing the highest number of flags at 14, followed by eight in Cover 3 and five in Cover 4. Sam Williams, Reddy Steward, and Brandon Aubrey were the most frequently penalized players on this unit, with four flags apiece.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: CeeDee Lamb WR7, George Pickens WR10, Javonte Williams RB18, Dak Prescott QB9.

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the roster call — who to target, who to fade, and who inherits work from free agency and the draft.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Dak Prescott (18.2 FPavg), George Pickens (17.1 FPavg), CeeDee Lamb (15.5 FPavg), Javonte Williams (15.2 FPavg), Jake Ferguson (10.9 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP). Box Yds are yards on those rushes only — not season rushing yards.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Coverage Total-FP leaders: COVER 1 led by George Pickens 87; COVER 3 led by George Pickens 76; COVER 2 led by CeeDee Lamb 44; COVER 4 led by Jake Ferguson 41; 2 MAN led by CeeDee Lamb 24; COVER 0 led by George Pickens 26; COVER 6 led by CeeDee Lamb 7.

George Pickens emerges as the primary fantasy weapon for this offense, leading the team in total fantasy points against three distinct coverage shells. He topped the charts with 87 full PPR points against Cover 1, added 76 points versus Cover 3, and contributed 26 points against Cover 0. His production across Cover 1, Cover 3 and Cover 0 shows that his fantasy success was not isolated to a single coverage family.

Lamb provides the other elite half of Dallas's receiving tandem, particularly excelling against two-high safety structures and traditional zone drops. He led all pass-catchers with 44 points against Cover 2 and added 24 points in two-man coverage schemes. Lamb led Dallas against Cover 2 and tied for the team lead against Cover 6, although Cover 6 was the offense's least productive shell overall at just 1.02 FP/play.

Jake Ferguson offers specific value in deeper zone coverages, leading the team with 41 points against Cover 4 and adding 50 points versus Cover 3. His role becomes more pronounced against Cover 3/4 zone shells, allowing him to operate in the middle of the field. Ryan Flournoy also showed flashes in limited action, scoring 20 points against two-man coverage and 13 against Cover 0, but the primary tight end target remains Ferguson when facing heavy zone deployments.

Skill adds: Sam Howell (QB) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR).

Skill losses: Jalen Tolbert (WR) to the Dolphins and Miles Sanders (RB).

Skill draft picks: Anthony Smith (WR, Rd 7, East Carolina).

Dak Prescott leads the Cowboys’ fantasy hierarchy with an 18.2 full PPR average per game, though his expected output of 22.7 suggests even higher upside if efficiency aligns with volume. George Pickens emerges as the primary pass-catching target after posting a 17.1 FPavg across 17 games, edging out CeeDee Lamb who averaged 15.5 points in just 13 appearances. Lamb’s expected average of 18.3 indicates he remains highly productive when on the field, but durability concerns temper his weekly reliability compared to Pickens’ consistent presence. Jake Ferguson provides a steady tight end option with a 10.9 average, while Ryan Flournoy offers depth with an 8.8 mark in limited action.

The running back room features Javonte Williams as the clear workload leader, averaging 15.2 fantasy points per game and accumulating 386 yards on 111 rushes against seven or more defenders in the box. His production stands in stark contrast to the departed Miles Sanders, who managed only 6.7 points per game in four contests before departing Dallas. With Sanders gone and no major running back additions noted beyond internal holdovers like Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue, Williams projects to lead the early-down workload. Hunter Luepke remains a niche option near the goal line, but his 3.4 average limits his broader fantasy appeal outside of specific touchdown-dependent formats.

Roster changes significantly reshape the target distribution for 2026, particularly with the loss of Jalen Tolbert to free agency. Tolbert's departure frees receiver snaps and targets, with Ryan Flournoy positioned as the established WR3 and KaVontae Turpin, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jonathan Mingo and rookie Anthony Smith competing for complementary roles. The addition of Sam Howell at quarterback adds depth behind Prescott but does not immediately threaten the starter’s role. With Sharp ranking the Cowboys’ receiving corps as the strongest unit in the league, the passing game remains the primary fantasy engine, even as the schedule presents the fourth-hardest slate in the NFL. DFS and fantasy players should prioritize the high-volume receivers while monitoring Williams' health as the only proven high-volume fantasy option in the backfield.

Inside Scoop

Sharp’s overall grade for Dallas Cowboys is a B-, reflecting a roster that carries immense preseason hype yet remains burdened by a history of underdelivering in critical moments. The forecast projects 9.5 wins and a second-place division finish, driven by an offense led by Dak Prescott that ranks among the league's best when healthy. While the front office has aggressively overhauled the defense following the Micah Parsons trade, the unit rankings reveal significant disparities; the receiving corps stands as the team's strongest asset at number one, whereas the running backs and head coach are tied for the weakest spots at number 23. This combination of elite skill position talent and questionable leadership depth suggests a team capable of contention but vulnerable to inconsistency, ensuring the franchise will dominate headlines regardless of the final outcome.

The path to reaching that win total is obstructed by the fourth-hardest schedule in the NFL, ranked 29th on Sharp’s difficulty scale, which tests the validity of the offseason rebuild. The roster has seen substantial turnover with confirmed departures including Osa Odighizuwa, Jadeveon Clowney, Logan Wilson, and Jalen Tolbert, while new additions such as Rashan Gary, Sam Howell, and Von Miller aim to stabilize both sides of the ball. Despite the influx of veteran talent like Jalen Thompson and Otito Ogbonnia, the team must overcome a difficult slate of games where they are favored in only eleven contests. Ultimately, the Cowboys possess the raw talent to outperform their recent 7-9-1 record, but success depends on whether these new acquisitions can translate paper improvements into actual wins against a brutal lineup of opponents.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.