NFL 2026 PREVIEW: DALLAS COWBOYS

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 campaign looking to rebound from a disappointing 7-9-1 finish in 2025, a season defined by high-scoring offense but historically poor defense. Warren Sharp’s forecast projects 9.5 wins and a second-place division ranking, suggesting significant improvement despite a daunting Strength of Schedule ranked 29th, hardest where 1 is easiest and 32 is hardest. The roster features elite talent at receiver, which Sharp identifies as the team’s strongest positional unit, while running back and head coach represent the weakest links tied at rank 23. Balancing an explosive attack that averaged 27.7 points per game against a defense that allowed 30.1 will be critical for Dallas to cover its average line of -1.1 and meet these elevated expectations.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Dallas Cowboys added Jalen Thompson (S) at $11M, Von Miller (EDGE) at $5.5M, Cobie Durant (CB) at $4M, P.J. Locke (S) at $4M, Otito Ogbonnia (IDL) at $2.79M, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR) at $1.49M (1-year).

Key departures: Osa Odighizuwa (IDL) to the 49ers, Logan Wilson (LB), Kenneth Murray (LB), Donovan Wilson (S), and Dante Fowler Jr. (EDGE).

The coaching continuity on offense pairs with a significant defensive overhaul under new leadership. Head Coach Brian Schottenheimer enters his second season, while Offensive Coordinator Klayton Adams also returns for a second year, providing stability for a unit anchored by the league’s top-ranked receivers but hampered by running backs and a head coach ranked 23rd by Sharp. The defense sees its most substantial change with Christian Parker taking over as Defensive Coordinator in his first season, tasked with integrating several high-profile additions. The front office added edge rusher Von Miller for $5.5 million and interior lineman Otito Ogbonnia for $2.79 million to bolster the pass rush and run defense, while also signing safety Jalen Thompson for $11 million, cornerback Cobie Durant for $4 million, and safety P.J. Locke for $4 million to address secondary needs.

These personnel moves come after the departure of key defensive contributors, including interior lineman Osa Odighizuwa, linebackers Logan Wilson and Kenneth Murray, safeties Donovan Wilson, and edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr. The loss of Odighizuwa is particularly notable given the addition of Ogbonnia, suggesting a reshuffling of the interior defensive line responsibilities. While the offense retains its core structure under Schottenheimer and Adams, the defensive identity will be defined by Parker’s ability to mesh veteran additions like Miller and Thompson with the remaining roster. Bettors and fantasy players should note that while the receiving corps remains elite, the overall team performance may hinge on how quickly the new defensive coordinator can stabilize a unit that lost multiple starters in the linebacker and secondary groups.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

The Cowboys addressed critical defensive needs by selecting Caleb Downs and Malachi Lawrence in the first round, injecting immediate talent into units that require reinforcement. Downs, taken at pick 11, brings versatile safety skills that allow him to thrive both in deep coverage and as an aggressive box defender, creating a formidable trio alongside Malik Hooker and free-agent addition Jalen Thompson. This depth may force positional adjustments during training camp, with Downs or Thompson potentially absorbing nickel corner duties to maximize their collective impact on the field. Lawrence, selected at pick 23, adds explosive edge-rushing ability to a crowded rotation that now includes trade acquisition Rashan Gary and returning holdovers Sam Williams and James Houston. While Lawrence must compete for snaps, his speed from wide positions makes him a natural fit for passing downs under coordinator Christian Parker, with the potential to evolve into a three-down contributor as he develops.

Later rounds focused on adding depth and developmental prospects to support the core defensive improvements. Jaishawn Barham, chosen in the third round, offers a hybrid skill set that bridges off-ball linebacker and edge rusher roles, though his effectiveness in traditional coverage will determine his snap count beyond sub-package pass rushing. The fourth round yielded offensive line help with Drew Shelton, a developmental tackle from Penn State, along with defensive back Devin Moore and interior lineman LT Overton, who add necessary competition to the secondary and defensive front. These selections complement the early picks by providing roster flexibility and long-term upside, ensuring the team has adequate depth to navigate the rigors of the upcoming season while refining its defensive identity.

Sharp Forecasts Dallas Cowboys with 9.5 Wins

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 season with a projected win total of 9.5, a figure that invites scrutiny given their inability to capitalize on favorable circumstances last year. Despite playing the third-easiest schedule in the league, the team finished with a 7-9-1 record and managed only one victory against five playoff-bound opponents. The upcoming campaign presents a steeper climb, as the strength of schedule ranks as the fourth-hardest in the NFL. However, the offense remains a potent engine capable of keeping the team competitive in most matchups. Last season, the unit ranked ninth in offensive health, with key contributors like Dak Prescott, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson avoiding missed games entirely, while CeeDee Lamb sat out just three contests and Javonte Williams missed only the final week. This durability supported high-end efficiency metrics, including a fourth-place finish in yards per play at 5.9, a fifth-place ranking in points per drive at 2.56, and a seventh-place mark in per-game scoring at 27.7 points.

Defensive vulnerabilities and special teams inefficiencies likely capped the team’s upside despite offensive firepower. The defense struggled significantly, ranking 30th in yards allowed per game at 377.0, 31st in yards allowed per play at 6.1, and last in both explosive-play rate allowed and points per drive allowed at 2.88. Even the offense left production on the table, converting red-zone opportunities into touchdowns at just a 56.9% rate, which placed them 18th in the league. While penalty margins were razor-thin in terms of raw counts and yardage, the Cowboys benefited from highly favorable impact, ranking third in offensive penalty EPA and 11th in defensive penalty EPA. With the roster retaining its core skill players and adding depth through confirmed acquisitions like Rashan Gary and Sam Howell, the team must overcome a difficult schedule and resolve its defensive liabilities to surpass the 9.5-win threshold.

Schedule Timing & Rest

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 season with a distinct scheduling advantage, ranking first in both net rest edge and overall rest rank while securing the third-best position for short-week road games. Their schedule features five labeled weeks with a positive rest edge, including significant advantages of plus-three days against Green Bay and Seattle, and a massive plus-six day buffer before the road trip to Los Angeles in Week 15. This structural benefit is complemented by a fourth-place ranking in games off road Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football slots, suggesting the team will frequently enjoy standard preparation windows rather than the compressed timelines that often plague teams with heavy prime-time road commitments. With a net rest total of plus-12 days, the Cowboys are positioned to be among the freshest teams in the league during critical late-season stretches, which can be a decisive factor in maintaining performance levels as fatigue typically sets in across the NFL.

However, this rest advantage is counterbalanced by a poor 29th-place ranking in preparation time, indicating that while the players may be physically rested, the coaching staff faces challenges in weekly game planning and installation. The team also holds the top rank for negated bye implications, a metric that requires careful interpretation within the context of their overall schedule flow. Despite these preparatory hurdles, the combination of elite rest metrics and favorable positioning in short-week scenarios provides a tangible edge for bettors looking at player availability and in-game energy levels. The Cowboys' ability to leverage these extra recovery days could help mitigate the effects of a difficult strength of schedule ranked 29th, potentially allowing them to outperform expectations in close contests where physical freshness becomes a determining variable.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways 21 (#19): 12 interceptions thrown (#17) and 9 fumbles lost (#25). Takeaways 11 (#30): 6 interceptions (#29) and 5 fumbles recovered (#24).

Giveaway leaders: Dak Prescott (12), Joe Milton III (3), Javonte Williams (2). Takeaway leaders: Donovan Wilson (2), Jadeveon Clowney (2), James Houston (1)

The Dallas Cowboys entered the 2026 forecast with a significant turnover deficit that directly impacts their betting viability and fantasy outlook. The team recorded 21 giveaways, ranking 19th in the league, which included 12 interceptions thrown and nine fumbles lost. Dak Prescott led the squad with 12 interceptions, while Joe Milton III contributed three and Javonte Williams added two fumble losses. On the defensive side, the unit struggled to generate positive swings, securing only 11 takeaways for a 30th-place ranking. This total comprised six interceptions and five recovered fumbles, resulting in a net turnover differential of negative-10.

Defensive takeaway production was sparse, with Donovan Wilson and Jadeveon Clowney each recording two interceptions before their departures. James Houston added one interception to the team’s modest haul. Since Wilson is listed among the confirmed 2026 departures, the Cowboys must replace his ball-hawking presence alongside new additions like Jalen Thompson and Cobie Durant. The combination of high giveaway volume and low takeaway generation suggests that maintaining possession will be critical for a roster projected to win 9.5 games. Fantasy managers should monitor how these turnover trends influence game scripts and offensive efficiency throughout the season.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Dak Prescott 208 yards.

Sack leaders (defense): Jadeveon Clowney (8.5), James Houston (5.5), Osa Odighizuwa (3.5), Kenny Clark (3)

Dak Prescott absorbed 208 yards in lost yardage due to sacks, a figure that reflects the pressure faced behind an offensive line ranked eighteenth by Sharp. The unit surrendered 31 total sacks, with the majority occurring out of shotgun formations where they allowed 23, ranking seventh most in the league. Conversely, protection held up better under center and in pistol sets, yielding only seven and one sack respectively. These numbers suggest that while the line is not elite, its vulnerabilities are most exposed when Prescott operates from deeper alignments rather than traditional under-center looks.

On the other side of the ball, the defense generated 35 sacks, placing them twenty-second in the league. Jadeveon Clowney led the pass rush with 8.5 sacks, followed by James Houston with 5.5. Osa Odighizuwa contributed 3.5 sacks before his departure, while Kenny Clark added 3. The defensive scheme found its greatest success when sending five rushers, resulting in 12 sacks, which ranked sixth best in the NFL. In contrast, standard four-man rushes produced 20 sacks, a mark that ranked twenty-eighth. Coverage-wise, the defense was most effective at finishing plays in Cover 3, tallying 12 sacks, indicating that blending zone coverage with increased pressure packages yielded better results than their base four-man rush.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 0 (#13). No punt or kickoff return touchdowns.

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 0 (#1). No punt or kickoff return touchdowns allowed.

Punt returns 13 for 82 yards; kickoff returns 82 for 2097 yards.

The Dallas Cowboys did not record a single touchdown on punt or kickoff returns during the 2025 season, a result that placed them in a tie for thirteenth in the league for scoring via special teams returns. While the unit failed to find the end zone, they remained active in the return game, logging 13 punt returns for a total of 82 yards. The kickoff return corps was significantly more involved in terms of volume, handling 82 returns that accumulated 2,097 yards, yet none of these efforts resulted in a score.

Defensively, the Cowboys’ coverage units and tackling on special teams were equally effective at preventing big plays, as they did not allow any opponent to score on a punt or kickoff return. This perfect record in preventing return touchdowns ranked first in the league, highlighting a strong ability to neutralize threats in the open field. The combination of zero scores allowed and zero scores produced suggests a special teams unit that prioritized security and field position over high-risk explosive plays.

Penalties

Offense: 75 penalties for 619 yards (#31). Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (23), Delay of Game (6). Most flags in Shotgun (22), Under Center (9). Most flagged players: Tyler Smith (7), George Pickens (7), Tyler Guyton (7).

Defense: 58 penalties for 517 yards (#31). Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Offside (8), Most flags in Cover 1 (14), Cover 3 (8), Cover 4 (5). Most flagged players: Sam Williams (4), Reddy Steward (4), Brandon Aubrey (4).

The Dallas Cowboys offense struggled with discipline, accumulating 75 penalties for 619 yards, which ranked 31st in the league. Offensive holding was the most frequent infraction with 25 flags, followed closely by six false starts and six delay of game penalties. These infractions occurred most often when the unit operated out of the shotgun formation, which drew 22 flags, compared to nine while under center. Individual accountability was spread among key contributors, as Tyler Smith, George Pickens, and Tyler Guyton each led the group with seven personal penalties apiece.

Defensive lapses were equally costly, as the defense committed 58 penalties for 517 yards, also ranking 31st overall. Defensive pass interference and defensive offside were tied for the most common calls with eight instances each. Coverage schemes played a role in these outcomes, with Cover 1 drawing the most attention at 14 flags, followed by eight in Cover 3 and five in Cover 4. Sam Williams, Reddy Steward, and Brandon Aubrey were the most frequently flagged individuals on this side of the ball, with four penalties each.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 862 plays, 46.5% success, 0.09 EPA/play (#5). Most efficient on early downs: George Pickens (94 plays, 0.53 EPA/play), Ryan Flournoy (39 plays, 0.50 EPA/play), Hunter Luepke (11 plays, 0.26 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 199 plays, 41.2% success, -0.06 EPA/play (#21). Most efficient in the red zone: Dak Prescott (8 plays, 0.52 EPA/play).

The Dallas Cowboys demonstrated elite efficiency on early downs during the 2025 season, ranking fifth in the league with an expected points added (EPA) per play of 0.09 across 862 attempts. This unit achieved a 46.5% success rate in these situations, driven largely by high-impact performances from key pass catchers and versatile backs. George Pickens led the way with a remarkable 0.53 EPA per play over 94 snaps, while Ryan Flournoy contributed significantly with a 0.50 EPA per play mark across 39 opportunities. Hunter Luepke also provided positive value, recording a 0.26 EPA per play average in his limited sample of 11 early-down plays.

Red zone execution proved to be a relative weakness for the offense, as the team ranked 21st in EPA per play with a negative figure of -0.06 across 199 trips inside the 20-yard line. The success rate in these critical scoring opportunities sat at 41.2%, indicating struggles to convert field position into points despite earlier offensive momentum. Dak Prescott was the standout performer in this area, generating a strong 0.52 EPA per play over eight recorded red zone plays, suggesting that quarterback-led initiatives were more effective than the overall unit average in tight spaces.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

Pass plays: 655 (#3). Pass rate: 59.3% (#8). Yards per pass play: 6.92 (#6). Pass-play success: 47.8% (#7).

Rush plays: 449 (#17). Rush rate: 40.7% (#25). Yards per rush: 4.78 (#7). Rush-play success: 45.0% (#8).

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -1.5 (#17); they passed 52.4% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): Dak Prescott (47.9% success on 631 pass plays), Joe Milton III (45.8% success on 24 pass plays).

On rushes: Javonte Williams (45.6% success on 252 rushes), Malik Davis (40.4% success on 52 rushes), Jaydon Blue (28.9% success on 38 rushes).

The Dallas Cowboys leaned heavily on their aerial attack last season, ranking eighth in the league with a 59.3% pass rate while attempting the third-most passes at 655. This volume translated into efficient production, as the unit finished sixth in yards per pass play with a 6.92 average and seventh in pass-play success rate at 47.8%. Dak Prescott led this effort with a 47.9% success rate across 631 pass plays, while Joe Milton III contributed a 45.8% success mark on his 24 attempts. Even when the situation did not dictate a throw, the team remained willing to air it out, posting a neutral-down pass rate over expected of -1.5, which ranked 17th, by passing on 52.4% of those snaps.

On the ground, the Cowboys were less frequent but highly effective, ranking 25th in rush rate at 40.7% despite finishing seventh in yards per rush with a 4.78 average. Their rushing attack also proved reliable, securing the eighth-best rush-play success rate at 45.0% across 449 attempts. Javonte Williams paced the backfield with a 45.6% success rate on 252 rushes, providing a steady foundation for the run game. Malik Davis added a 40.4% success rate on 52 carries, while Jaydon Blue recorded a 28.9% success rate on his 38 attempts, rounding out the primary contributors in the rushing ledger.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Offense: 69 explosives (#7) for 2242 yards (#6) — 56 pass, 13 rush.

Defense allowed: 72 explosives (#28) for 2276 yards (#31) — 58 pass, 14 rush.

Top explosive producers: George Pickens (22), CeeDee Lamb (16), KaVontae Turpin (6).

Opponents who burned coverage: Wan'Dale Robinson (3), Malik Nabers (3), Quentin Johnston (3).

Coverages beaten most often: Cover 1 (22), Cover 3 (12), Cover 2 (10).

Coverages that sprung leaks: Cover 3 (22), Cover 1 (22), Cover 2 (7).

The Dallas Cowboys offense proved highly efficient at generating chunk plays during the 2025 season, ranking seventh in the league with 69 explosive gains of 20 or more yards. These big plays accumulated 2,242 total yards, with the aerial attack accounting for the majority of that production through 56 pass explosives. Ryan Flournoy led the unit with 22 such receptions for 667 yards, while CeeDee Lamb contributed 16 explosives for 548 yards. KaVontae Turpin added six explosive catches, and Javonte Williams matched that total on the ground with six rushes for 192 yards. The passing game found the most success against Cover 1 defenses, which were beaten for 22 explosive plays, followed by Cover 3 and Cover 2 schemes.

Defensively, the Cowboys struggled to contain opposing big-play threats, allowing 72 explosive plays that ranked 28th in the NFL. Opponents gained 2,276 yards on these significant gains, with 58 coming through the air and 14 on the ground. The secondary was particularly vulnerable to Cover 3 and Cover 1 alignments, surrendering 22 explosive plays against each of those looks. Wan'Dale Robinson, Malik Nabers, and Quentin Johnston each recorded three explosive receptions against the Dallas defense. This inability to limit long gains contributed to a defensive yardage allowance rank of 31st overall, highlighting a critical area for improvement despite the offensive firepower.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

The Dallas Cowboys relied heavily on the 11 personnel package, which features one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers, using it for 757 plays to generate 1.49 full PPR fantasy points per play. This grouping prominently featured Javonte Williams, Jake Ferguson, George Pickens, CeeDee Lamb, and Ryan Flournoy as the primary contributors. The team also utilized the 12 personnel set with two tight ends and two wide receivers on 221 occasions, producing 1.44 fantasy points per play with Javonte Williams, Luke Schoonmaker, Brevyn Spann-Ford, George Pickens, and CeeDee Lamb taking the field. A rare 13 personnel look with three tight ends appeared only 20 times but yielded a high 2.07 fantasy points per play, involving Javonte Williams, Jake Ferguson, Luke Schoonmaker, Brevyn Spann-Ford, and CeeDee Lamb.

In terms of alignment, the offense operated out of the shotgun formation most frequently, accounting for 60.9% of snaps with 671 plays and an efficiency of 1.65 fantasy points per play. The unit went under center for 410 plays, representing 37.2% of their snaps, though this approach resulted in a lower output of 1.28 fantasy points per play. Pistol formations were used sparingly for just 21 plays but managed 1.78 fantasy points per play, while run-pass options were called on 58 plays and produced 0.94 fantasy points per play within those specific structural counts.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #11; play-action rank #5 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The Cowboys enter the 2026 season with a quarterback room ranked eighth by Sharp, anchored by Dak Prescott’s proven efficiency and volume. Prescott played all 17 games in 2025, delivering a 20.2 DraftKings average with a floor of 14.0 and a ceiling of 28.3. His production was driven by heavy usage, as he led the league with 404 completions on 600 attempts, the second-most pass attempts in the NFL. Prescott threw 30 touchdowns against an interception rate of just 1.7 percent, while his 4.6 percent completion percentage over expectation and plus-0.12 EPA per dropback highlight his accuracy and decision-making. He also protected the ball well, taking sacks on only 4.9 percent of his dropbacks, which ranked ninth in the league.

The offensive line, ranked 18th by Sharp, provided adequate protection for Prescott to operate at a high level despite not being elite. Prescott’s 7.6 yards per attempt and 5 percent touchdown rate placed him in the top tier of quarterbacks, while his 36.7 percent first-down or touchdown rate ranked 11th. With Prescott signed through 2028 at a $44.6 million cap hit, the financial structure remains stable for now, though future reworks may be necessary given the long-term cap implications. The addition of Sam Howell provides depth behind Prescott, ensuring the team has experienced options if injuries arise during the grueling schedule.

Looking ahead to 2026, the passing game relies on Prescott maintaining his health and efficiency within a top-10 quarterback unit. The combination of high volume and strong rate stats suggests the offense will continue to lean on the air attack, supported by an offensive line that, while middle-of-the-pack, kept Prescott upright at a respectable clip. As Prescott approaches age 33, his ability to sustain this level of production will be critical for the Cowboys’ offensive success. The staff will likely continue to utilize his quick release and accuracy to mitigate pressure, leveraging the league’s best receiving corps to maximize every dropback.

Top two QBs. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Cowboys’ receiving corps as the strongest unit in the league, a designation supported by the high-volume production from its top targets in 2025. George Pickens led the group with 137 targets, converting them into a team-high 22.7% target share and averaging 17.9 DraftKings fantasy points per game. CeeDee Lamb remained a central figure despite playing in only 14 games, securing 117 targets at a 25.9% share while posting an average of 16.8 fantasy points. Jake Ferguson anchored the tight end position with 102 targets and a 21.3% share, providing a reliable safety valve alongside emerging contributor Ryan Flournoy, who caught passes on 20.7% of his opportunities across 15 games. KaVontae Turpin added depth with 38 targets, though his usage was more limited compared to the primary options.

The red-zone hierarchy highlights the trust placed in Ferguson and Pickens near the goal line. Ferguson commanded 25 red-zone targets, representing 24.0% of such throws, while Pickens followed closely with 24 looks at a 23.1% share. Lamb accounted for 17 red-zone targets, and Flournoy proved efficient when involved, scoring at a high rate despite only seven such targets. On early downs, Pickens again led with 94 targets, outpacing Lamb’s 83 and Ferguson’s 76. This distribution underscores a balanced attack that leverages Pickens’ volume, Lamb’s efficiency, and Ferguson’s versatility to maintain elite status among NFL receiving units.

Looking ahead to 2026, the departure of Jalen Tolbert removes a minor piece from the receiver room, but the core trio of Pickens, Lamb, and Ferguson returns intact. The unit’s top ranking suggests continued dominance, especially with one-year signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling and drafted pick Anthony Smith adding depth to the rotation. With Prescott’s contract situation looming in future years, the current receiving group remains the offensive engine, relying on established chemistry and high target shares to drive production. The Cowboys enter the new season with a clear hierarchy and proven playmakers ready to sustain their position as the league’s premier pass-catching ensemble.

Overall Targets

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp assigns the Cowboys’ running back unit a lowly #23 ranking, a grade that reflects both efficiency concerns and the departure of key contributors. Javonte Williams shouldered the heaviest load in 2025, recording 252 attempts for 1,201 rushing yards while maintaining a positive expected points added (EPA) of +5.9. Behind him, Malik Davis contributed 250 yards on 52 carries across nine games, while Jaydon Blue managed 129 yards on 38 attempts in limited action. The backfield also featured Hunter Luepke, who tallied 71 yards on 16 carries, and Miles Sanders, who departed after generating 117 yards on 20 attempts during his four-game stint.

The ground game operated behind an offensive line ranked #18, which provided a middle-of-the-pack foundation for these rushers. Efficiency metrics varied significantly among the backs, with Williams achieving a 44.8% success rate and Sanders posting a higher 45.0% success rate despite his smaller sample size. Luepke demonstrated notable reliability in short-yardage situations with a 56.3% success rate, whereas Blue struggled with a 28.9% mark. These underlying numbers suggest that while volume was available for the primary ball carriers, consistent explosive playmaking remained elusive for the group as a whole.

In the red zone, Williams was the clear focal point, handling 54 rushing opportunities and scoring 12 touchdowns on those carries. His dominance in high-leverage situations accounted for the vast majority of the team’s ground-based red-zone production, far outpacing Davis, Sanders, and Blue, who each scored only once on the ground inside the 20. With Sanders exiting the roster and no new running backs listed among the confirmed additions, the 2026 outlook relies heavily on Williams maintaining his workload and efficiency while the supporting cast seeks to improve upon their modest per-carry yields.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Dallas Cowboys entered the 2025 season with a potent offense that finished seventh in the league by averaging 27.7 real points per game. This scoring output translated into elite fantasy production, as the unit ranked third overall with 96.7 full PPR fantasy points per game. Sharp’s assessment highlights the receiving corps as the strongest component of the roster, ranking first among all units, which helps explain the high fantasy ceiling despite the team finishing with a 7-9-1 record. The addition of Sam Howell to the quarterback room provides another option for a passing attack that already demonstrated significant efficiency in generating fantasy value through the air.

Defensive struggles severely undermined the team’s ability to convert offensive success into wins, as Dallas allowed 30.1 points per game, the worst mark in the NFL at rank 32. This defensive liability also extended to fantasy metrics, where opponents averaged 99.1 full PPR fantasy points per game against the Cowboys, also ranking last in the league. While the front office added pass rushers like Rashan Gary and Von Miller to address these issues, the 2025 tape shows a unit that consistently gave up substantial scoring opportunities. With a schedule difficulty rank indicating a harder path ahead, improving this defensive floor will be critical for reaching the projected 9.5 win total.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Dallas Cowboys demonstrated a clear pattern of offensive acceleration as games progressed, with their most productive scoring window occurring in the second quarter. During this period, the unit averaged 11.1 points per game, which ranked first across the league, while also generating 32.3 full PPR fantasy points per contest to secure the second-best mark in that metric. This mid-game surge helped offset a sluggish start, as the team managed only 4.7 actual points and 19.2 fantasy points in the opening quarter, placing them seventeenth and twelfth respectively in those categories. The offense maintained moderate production in the final two periods, posting 5.2 points in the third quarter and 6.4 points in the fourth, though these outputs did not match the elite efficiency seen before halftime.

Defensive vulnerabilities were most pronounced immediately after kickoff, where the Cowboys allowed 7.8 points and 25.5 fantasy points in the first quarter, both figures ranking thirty-second in the NFL. This early struggle continued into the second quarter, where opponents scored 8.4 points and accumulated 27.9 fantasy points, resulting in defensive ranks of twenty-fifth and thirtieth respectively. The defense stabilized somewhat in the second half, permitting 5.0 points in the third quarter and 8.8 points in the fourth, but the damage inflicted during the first thirty minutes often dictated the flow of the game. These splits highlight a team that excelled offensively in the middle of games but faced significant challenges in establishing early defensive stops.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #17, Secondary #21.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles = nflverse solo + with-assist + assists (REG season; aligns with official combined). May include production with a prior team.

Shemar James led the club with 91 tackles; Jadeveon Clowney 8.5 sacks, James Houston 5.5 sacks, Osa Odighizuwa 3.5 sacks.

The Dallas Cowboys enter the 2026 season with a defense that Sharp ranks 17th in the Front 7 and 21st in the Secondary, reflecting a unit undergoing significant personnel turnover. The team lost several key contributors from the 2025 campaign, including interior linemen Osa Odighizuwa and Solomon Thomas, linebackers Logan Wilson and Kenneth Murray, and safeties Donovan Wilson and Juanyeh Thomas. To offset these departures, the front office added veteran presence through trades and free agency, securing edge rushers Rashan Gary and Von Miller, safety Jalen Thompson, cornerback Cobie Durant, safety P.J. Locke, and interior lineman Otito Ogbonnia. These additions aim to stabilize a group that saw Shemar James lead the club with 91 tackles last season, while Jadeveon Clowney recorded 8.5 sacks and James Houston contributed 5.5 sacks.

Despite the influx of new talent, the defense must replace production from players who generated notable stats in 2025, such as Osa Odighizuwa’s 3.5 sacks and Donovan Wilson’s two interceptions. The secondary will look to DaRon Bland, who posted six pass deflections and one interception, and Reddy Steward, who added five pass deflections and 1.5 tackles for loss, to maintain coverage integrity alongside new arrivals like Thompson and Durant. The draft class provides further depth with selections including safety Caleb Downs, defensive end Malachi Lawrence, outside linebacker Jaishawn Barham, cornerback Devin Moore, and defensive tackle LT Overton. With Quinnen Williams registering 10 tackles for loss and 12 quarterback hits in the previous year, the interior line remains a focal point for pressure, even as the unit integrates its new edge rushers and backfield defenders.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams

Brandon Aubrey: 36/42 FG, 47/48 PAT.

Bryan Anger led with 41 punts (14 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner KaVontae Turpin: 69 returns for 1814 yards.

Punt returner KaVontae Turpin: 10 returns for 55 yards.

Special teams tackler Brevyn Spann-Ford: 20 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs (solo + with-assist + assists).

Brandon Aubrey remains the cornerstone of the Dallas Cowboys' special teams, delivering elite production with 36 successful field goals on 42 attempts, including eight conversions from beyond 50 yards and a long of 64 yards. His reliability extended to extra points, where he converted 47 of 48 chances, providing consistent scoring opportunities for an offense that finished 7-9-1 in the prior season. On the punting side, Bryan Anger handled the bulk of the workload with 41 punts, demonstrating strong placement skills by landing 14 of those kicks inside the opponent's 20-yard line without allowing any blocks.

KaVontae Turpin served as the primary catalyst in the return game, accumulating 1,814 yards on 69 kickoff returns while also contributing 55 yards on 10 punt returns. His dual role generated significant yardage, combining for 2,097 total return yards alongside his punt work. In coverage units, Brevyn Spann-Ford emerged as the leading tackler with 20 combined stops across punt and kickoff duties, highlighting the unit's emphasis on limiting opposing return efficiency through disciplined tackling.

Penalty Analysis

Dallas finished the 2025 campaign with a dubious distinction as the most penalized team in the NFL, a label driven by significant discipline issues on both sides of the ball. The offense was particularly prone to holding calls, leading the league in that specific infraction per game, while also ranking among the top ten for pre-snap mistakes. Special teams contributed to the problem by averaging the second-most penalties per game, and the unit struggled mightily on critical downs, committing the most third-down penalties in the league. Perhaps most concerning for coaching staff was the team's lack of composure, as they averaged the most unsportsmanlike conduct and unnecessary roughness penalties per game, factors that heavily inflated their overall per-game average and earned them a B- grade in this analysis.

Despite these self-inflicted wounds, the Cowboys managed to leverage officiating trends to their advantage in key moments. Their offense accounted for only 133% of the team’s total penalties, which is notably lower than the league average of 47.7%, suggesting the defense or special teams bore a heavier share of the blame. Dallas was the primary beneficiary of roughing the passer and defensive pass interference calls, with the wide receiver pairing of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens proving exceptionally efficient at drawing favorable flags in the latter category. This ability to generate automatic first downs through opponent infractions helped Dallas secure the third-highest net advantage in this metric, while their defense also led the NFL in generating penalties against opposing offenses, creating a complex dynamic where high penalty totals coincided with strategic benefits.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 75 penalties for 619 yards (#31). Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (23), Delay of Game (6). Most flags in Shotgun (22), Under Center (9). Most flagged players: Tyler Smith (7), George Pickens (7), Tyler Guyton (7).

Defense: 58 penalties for 517 yards (#31). Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Offside (8), Most flags in Cover 1 (14), Cover 3 (8), Cover 4 (5). Most flagged players: Sam Williams (4), Reddy Steward (4), Brandon Aubrey (4).

The Dallas Cowboys offense struggled with discipline, accumulating 75 penalties for 619 yards, which ranked 31st in the league. Offensive holding was the most frequent infraction with 25 occurrences, followed closely by six false starts and six delay of game penalties. These flags were most often called when the unit operated out of the shotgun formation, which drew 22 penalties, compared to nine while under center. Individual accountability was spread among key contributors, as Tyler Smith, George Pickens, and Tyler Guyton each led the team with seven personal flags.

Defensive lapses also proved costly, as the unit committed 58 penalties for 517 yards, another 31st-ranked mark across the NFL. Defensive pass interference and defensive offside were tied for the most common defensive infractions with eight calls each. Coverage schemes played a significant role in these outcomes, with Cover 1 drawing 14 penalties, far exceeding the eight flags in Cover 3 and five in Cover 4. Sam Williams, Reddy Steward, and Brandon Aubrey were the most frequently penalized players on this side of the ball, each recording four flags.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: CeeDee Lamb WR7, George Pickens WR10, Javonte Williams RB18, Dak Prescott QB9.

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the roster call — who to target, who to fade, and who inherits work from free agency and the draft.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Dak Prescott (18.2 FPavg), George Pickens (17.1 FPavg), CeeDee Lamb (15.5 FPavg), Javonte Williams (15.2 FPavg), Jake Ferguson (10.9 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP). Box Yds are yards on those rushes only — not season rushing yards.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

George Pickens emerges as the most consistent fantasy asset across nearly every defensive look, leading the scoring charts in Cover 1, Cover 3, Cover 4, and Cover 0. His ability to generate full PPR points is particularly pronounced against single-high and zero-blitz schemes, where he posted 87 and 26 points respectively. CeeDee Lamb remains a vital piece of the offense but shows more variance depending on the coverage shell, topping the leaderboard in Cover 2 and 2 Man while sharing duties with Pickens in other alignments. Fantasy managers should view Pickens as the primary target in high-leverage passing situations, especially when defenses opt for aggressive man coverage or standard single-high structures.

Jake Ferguson provides a reliable floor in specific matchups, most notably leading the tight end scoring in Cover 3 and Cover 4 schemes. His 50 points against Cover 3 and 41 points against Cover 4 suggest that defenses playing two-deep or three-deep zones leave intermediate middle fields open for his skill set. While Ryan Flournoy appears as a secondary option in 2 Man and Cover 0 looks, his volume is significantly lower than the top two receivers. Managers streaming tight ends should prioritize Ferguson when facing defenses that heavily utilize zone coverages, as those are the scenarios where he has historically produced the highest fantasy averages for the Cowboys.

The data indicates that the Cowboys' passing attack struggles most against Cover 6, which yielded the lowest total fantasy points and per-play average for the group. Conversely, Cover 0 presents the highest efficiency per play at 3.20 points, driven largely by Pickens and Flournoy, though the sample size is small. Overall, the offense generates the bulk of its fantasy production against Cover 2, Cover 3, and Cover 1, which collectively account for over 64% of the plays faced. Understanding these tendencies allows fantasy players to better predict which Cowboys pass-catchers will thrive based on the opposing defense's preferred schematic approach.

Skill adds: Sam Howell (QB) at $2.5M and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR) at $1.49M (1-year).

Skill losses: Jalen Tolbert (WR) to the Dolphins and Miles Sanders (RB).

Skill draft picks: Anthony Smith (WR, Rd 7, East Carolina).

Dak Prescott leads the Cowboys’ fantasy hierarchy with an 18.2 full PPR average per game, though his expected output of 22.7 suggests even higher upside if efficiency aligns with volume. George Pickens emerges as the primary pass-catching target, posting a 17.1 FPavg that tops the receiving corps, while CeeDee Lamb remains a vital piece despite playing only 13 games and averaging 15.5 points. Jake Ferguson provides a reliable floor at tight end with a 10.9 average across all 17 contests, making him a steady option in deeper leagues. Tolbert’s departure frees receiver snaps and targets, with Ryan Flournoy positioned as the established WR3 and KaVontae Turpin, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Jonathan Mingo, and rookie Anthony Smith competing for complementary roles.

The running back situation features Javonte Williams as the clear workload leader, evidenced by his 15.2 FPavg and significant production against stacked boxes. Williams recorded 111 rushes for 386 yards when facing seven or more defenders in the box, highlighting his role as the primary grinder in tough situations. With Miles Sanders now departed after a brief four-game stint, the backup duties fall to a group including Malik Davis and Jaydon Blue, neither of whom commanded enough volume to threaten Williams’ status as the RB1 in this offense. Hunter Luepke remains in the mix for goal-line or third-down nuances, but the data points firmly to Williams as the only back with consistent fantasy relevance.

Sam Howell arrives as a low-cost quarterback addition at $2.5 million, potentially offering competition or insurance behind Prescott, though he does not immediately displace the starter’s fantasy value. One-year signing Marquez Valdes-Scantling and seventh-round pick Anthony Smith add depth to the wide receiver room but are unlikely to impact immediate target shares given the presence of Pickens, Lamb, and Ryan Flournoy. Fantasy managers should prioritize the high-volume receivers and Prescott in passing formats, while treating the running game as a Williams-centric operation with limited upside for handcuffs. The overall offensive structure relies heavily on its top three scorers, leaving little room for breakout candidates outside the known quantities.

Inside Scoop

Sharp assigns the Dallas Cowboys a B- grade for Penalties & Discipline, a solid mark for a team that still carries broader concerns about consistency in high-leverage moments. Separately, Sharp forecasts 9.5 wins and a second-place finish in the division despite a difficult schedule ranked 29th in difficulty. He identifies the receiving corps as the league’s strongest positional unit, while the running back group and head coaching rank 23rd and represent two of the roster’s weaker areas. Dak Prescott still gives Dallas a high offensive ceiling when healthy, but the defense enters 2026 with a different identity following the Micah Parsons trade. The larger question is whether those personnel changes can translate preseason optimism into more consistent results when the games matter most.

The 2025 tape reveals a stark contrast between offensive output and defensive collapse, with the team scoring 27.7 points per game to rank seventh while surrendering 30.1 points per game to finish last in the league. This imbalance contributed to a 7-9-1 straight-up record and a disappointing 5-10-2 mark against the spread, although the over hit in 13 of 24 games. With confirmed departures including Osa Odighizuwa and Jalen Tolbert, the front office has added veterans like Rashan Gary, Von Miller, Sam Howell, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to address roster holes. Whether these moves can fix the defensive liabilities that plagued the previous season will determine if the Cowboys can finally deliver on their contender potential rather than just dominating headlines.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.