NFL 2026 PREVIEW: DENVER BRONCOS

Fourteen wins created enormous expectations in Denver. The Chiefs beat the Broncos 31-10 in Week 1, a reminder that 2025 does not carry over automatically. Last year they went 14-3 ATS and 7-10 to the over, with a defense that allowed 18.3 points per game (third) and an offense at 23.6 (14th). Warren Sharp has the Broncos at 9.5 wins and third in the AFC West, with a schedule ranked 22nd on a 1-to-32 scale where one is easiest — the 11th-hardest slate. His preseason snapshot installed them as favorites in ten games and underdogs in seven, a -1.7 average line, -2.1 at home and -1.3 on the road.

Sean Payton and Bo Nix are the constants. Sharp ranks the offensive line first and the running backs 21st, and Waddle is the skill addition meant to add explosiveness after only 12% of Denver's receptions gained 20-plus yards, the league's lowest rate. That experiment barely got started in Kansas City, where Waddle's Broncos debut produced one catch for two yards.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Tycen Anderson (S); Jaylen Waddle (WR) (via trade).

Key Departures: John Franklin-Myers (EDGE) to the Titans, Dre Greenlaw (LB) (Released), P.J. Locke (S) to the Cowboys, Michael Burton (FB) to the Browns, Geron Christian (LT), Marcedes Lewis (TE), Sam Mustipher (C), and Delarrin Turner-Yell (S).

Unavailable / status: Jonathon Cooper (OLB) is on the Commissioner's Exempt List and cannot practice or play in games; RJ Harvey is questionable (hamstring) for Week 2; Marvin Mims Jr. is out (foot). Sharp's published Front 7 #4 grade predates Cooper's Commissioner's Exempt List.

Sean Payton enters his fourth season in Denver with Warren Sharp ranking him fifth among head coaches. The change on his staff is the one Payton had not made in 17 years as a play-caller: Davis Webb, promoted from quarterbacks coach after Joe Lombardi's dismissal, will call the offense in 2026. Webb is 31. Payton kept him in Denver after Raiders, Ravens, and Bills interviews, and Sharp treats the handoff as a bet that a more aggressive first-half script can start faster than last year's early-down passing. The other offensive change is Jaylen Waddle, acquired via trade after Denver sent its first-round pick to Miami. Fullback Michael Burton left for the Browns, tight end Marcedes Lewis departed, and reserve linemen Geron Christian and Sam Mustipher are gone. Waddle is the skill add that has to show up in the 2025 target tree Sutton and Franklin carried.

Vance Joseph is back for a fourth season, and Sharp ranked the front seven fourth before Jonathon Cooper was placed on the Commissioner's Exempt list at final cuts. Cooper had eight sacks in 2025. The current outside-linebacker depth chart lists Bonitto over Que Robinson on one side and Jonah Elliss over Dondrea Tillman on the other. John Franklin-Myers signed with the Titans, the vacancy Sharp says third-round tackle Tyler Onyedim is competing to fill, and Dre Greenlaw was released March 12 after eight games (43 tackles, a sack, an interception, and a forced fumble). The safety room lost P.J. Locke and added Tycen Anderson behind the returning Hufanga/Jones group. Joseph still calls the defense. The 2026 question is whether that front can replace Franklin-Myers' 7.5 sacks and Cooper's unavailable eight without turning the secondary into the story.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Denver entered the draft without a first-round pick after the Waddle trade and without a second-rounder after Buffalo jumped them for Davison Igbinosun. The class opened at pick 66 with Texas A&M defensive tackle Tyler Onyedim. Sharp calls that a surprising choice given the interior depth already on the roster, and frames Onyedim as a candidate to play immediately in the spot John Franklin-Myers left for Tennessee. Sharp's own scouting note is run-first: Onyedim did not make much of a pass-rush dent in five college seasons, and Zach Allen is signed through 2029, so the competition is with Sai'vion Jones and Malcolm Roach for one available line job. Fourth-round running back Jonah Coleman (pick 108) is the Dobbins insurance policy. Sharp says Coleman will back up J.K. Dobbins and take early-down work when Dobbins misses time, which he has every year of his career. Three picks later, Boise State tackle Kage Casey (111) is a college left tackle Sharp expects to slide inside; short-term he is guard/tackle depth, with a longer look at left guard after Ben Powers' contract year.

The rest of the class is depth. Sharp framed fifth-round tight end Justin Joly (152) as a reliable pass catcher behind Evan Engram and Adam Trautman; Joly was waived at cutdown. Miles Scott (pick 246) is the seventh-round safety Sharp read as a free-safety name who probably does not win a starting job — waived, then the practice squad. Utah tight end Dallen Bentley (256) is a 26-year-old rookie blocker who made the 53-man roster. Buffalo linebacker Red Murdock (257) is Mr. Irrelevant with a special-teams path; he was waived, then the practice squad. Onyedim, Coleman, Casey, and Bentley are the four 2026 picks on the active 53-man roster. Sharp's close on the class is still blunt: after trading the first-round pick, it would not be surprising if Denver did not come away with a single starter.

Sharp Forecasts Denver Broncos with 9.5 Wins

Over Case: Sharp's over at 9.5 is that last year's offensive line and front seven hold up again. The line is a unanimous first-place unit, left tackle Garett Bolles leading left tackles in pressure rate allowed (2.9%), and the front seven was one of three groups to draw a first-place vote. Running backs picked up five or more yards on only 30% of carries against Denver, the league's second-lowest rate, and Sharp notes that nearly the entire unit returns — a snapshot taken before Jonathon Cooper landed on the Commissioner's Exempt List. The secondary is still Pat Surtain II: on the outside he allowed two receptions of 10-plus air yards in 296 coverage snaps, one every 148, the best rate in the league. Waddle is the skill-side reason the 9.5 is not just a defense-and-line number. Receivers and tight ends jumped 14 spots in Sharp's rankings, the largest gain of any pass-catcher unit, after a year when 20-plus-yard receptions landed at 12%, last in the NFL.

Under Case: Last year Denver won 11 one-score games and lost two, an .846 clip in those games that led the league. They also went 5-2 when trailing at the half (.714 against a .238 league average) and outscored teams 131-67 in the fourth quarter, a +64 margin that ranked second. Sharp's under is that those three things do not travel as a package. The Broncos were eighth in overall player health and third on defense, 30th in offensive penalty EPA, last in net penalty EPA, and opponents made 94.9% of their field goals. Nix threw the second-most attempts of any quarterback over the last three seasons and still had to win that many close games in front of a top-five defense and a top-five line. Running backs ranked 21st is the offensive tell if Dobbins misses time again. Seven games as underdogs is where a couple of those one-score wins flipping would land Denver under 9.5.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club +3 days.

Denver navigates a favorable calendar setup in 2026, landing on the positive side of Warren Sharp’s seasonal rest calculus. The Broncos finish with a net rest edge of plus-three days versus their opponents, which ranks 12th in the league. Across the season, the ledger features nine weeks with a non-zero rest differential, creating intermittent swings in turnaround time relative to their competition rather than an uninterrupted baseline. Sharp ranks Denver 10th in overall rest rank and 13th in prep rank across the NFL. The club also secures a strong standing in situational scheduling spots, ranking second in games off road Sunday Night or Monday Night Football and sixth in negated bye rank.

Those timing factors appear early across Sharp's week-by-week rest edges. Denver opens the season with consecutive rest disparities, absorbing a minus-one rest disadvantage at home in Week 2 against Jacksonville before capturing a plus-one edge the following week at home on Sunday Night Football against the Rams. The largest swings of the first half arrive just before the Week 10 bye: Denver holds a plus-three rest advantage on the road at Arizona in Week 7, only to face a minus-three rest disadvantage two weeks later on the road against Carolina. Combined with a 12th-place ranking in Sharp's short-week road games metric, the Broncos largely sidestep the league's most punishing scheduling clusters while banking a positive total rest balance over the course of the campaign.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Bo Nix (11 INT, 2 FL), Troy Franklin (1 FL), RJ Harvey (1 FL). Takeaways: Brandon Jones (1 INT, 1 FR), Jahdae Barron (1 INT, 1 FR), Dondrea Tillman (2 INT), Ja'Quan McMillian (2 INT), JL Skinner (1 FR), Justin Strnad (1 INT)

Denver finished with 17 giveaways (11th) and 14 takeaways (26th), a minus-three net in a 14-3 season. Bo Nix threw all 11 interceptions. The six fumbles lost ranked sixth-fewest, with Nix down for two of them plus one each from Troy Franklin and RJ Harvey. On the other side, Ja'Quan McMillian and Dondrea Tillman each had two interceptions, with single picks from Brandon Jones, Jahdae Barron, and Justin Strnad. The four fumble recoveries ranked 28th, split among Jones, Barron, and JL Skinner. P.J. Locke is gone and Tycen Anderson is in. The odd combination is a defense that ranked third in points allowed, 26th in takeaways, and 28th with four fumble recoveries.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Bo Nix 119 yards; Courtland Sutton 5 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 17/628 ≈ 2.7% of shotgun plays; 3/372 ≈ 0.8% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Nik Bonitto (14), Jonathon Cooper (8), John Franklin-Myers (7.5), Zach Allen (7)

Denver’s offensive line anchored the league in pass protection during the 2025 campaign, surrendering just 23 total sacks to rank first across the NFL. Starting quarterback Bo Nix lost 119 yards across his takedowns, while wide receiver Courtland Sutton lost five yards on a single pass-play sack. That protection held firm across different alignments. The offense allowed 17 sacks across 628 total shotgun plays, which represents 2.7 percent of all snaps from that set, and gave up three sacks across 372 under-center plays, accounting for 0.8 percent of those snaps. Denver also allowed one sack from pistol sets across the season.

On the other side of the ball, Denver finished first in the league with 68 defensive sacks. Nik Bonitto led the team with 14 sacks, followed by Jonathon Cooper with eight, John Franklin-Myers with 7.5, and Zach Allen with seven. Up front, standard four-man rushes produced the bulk of the takedowns with 38 sacks, ranking second in the league, while five-man blitzes finished first with 19. When coordinating coverage behind the pass rush, the defense recorded 18 sacks in Cover 1 and 15 in Cover 3, alongside 12 in Cover 2, seven in Cover 4, seven in 2-Man looks, and five in Cover 0.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 1 (#7) — Marvin Mims Jr. (punt return).

Kickoff returner Marvin Mims Jr.: 25 returns for 658 yards.

Punt returner Marvin Mims Jr.: 29 returns for 452 yards.

Punt returns 34 for 481 yards; kickoff returns 59 for 1491 yards.

Marvin Mims Jr. handled the return jobs in 2025: 29 punt returns for 452 yards and 25 kickoff returns for 658, with the club's only return touchdown coming on a punt. The unit's 34 punt returns went for 481 yards and the 59 kickoff returns for 1,491. Denver allowed zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns, tying for first in that count. Mims is out (foot) for Week 2; Tyler Badie and RJ Harvey are the listed kickoff options behind him, and Riley Moss is the listed punt-return name.

Penalties

Offense: 66 penalties for 522 yards (#20). Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (18), Delay of Game (6). Most flags in Shotgun (18), Under Center (12), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Garett Bolles (6), Mike McGlinchey (6), Luke Wattenberg (5).

Defense: 57 penalties for 589 yards (#30), including 1 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (20), Defensive Offside (9), Roughing the Passer (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (10), Cover 2 (6). Most flagged players: Pat Surtain II (9), Riley Moss (9), Nik Bonitto (8).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Denver drew 123 penalties for 1,111 yards, ranking 28th on a board where first is fewest flags. The offense took 66 for 522 yards (20th). Offensive holding (25) and false starts (18) led that side, and the formation split in the note is Shotgun 18, Under Center 12, and Pistol 1. Garett Bolles and Mike McGlinchey each had six flags; Luke Wattenberg had five.

The defense took 57 for 589 yards (30th). That total includes one Offensive Holding on punt returns and one Illegal Formation on kickoffs/PAT. Defensive pass interference (20) and defensive offside (9) led the type list, then roughing the passer (5). Coverage flags clustered in Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (10), and Cover 2 (6). Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss each had nine flags; Nik Bonitto, the edge rusher, had eight. Sharp's 2026 note is still the third-down defensive flags and the league-high DPI rate.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 821 plays, 43.7% success, 0.04 EPA/play (#11). Most efficient on early downs: Lil'Jordan Humphrey (11 plays, 0.51 EPA/play), Adam Trautman (19 plays, 0.39 EPA/play), Courtland Sutton (68 plays, 0.28 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 170 plays, 44.7% success, 0.15 EPA/play (#3). Most efficient in the red zone: Bo Nix (15 plays, 0.84 EPA/play), Troy Franklin (21 plays, 0.30 EPA/play), RJ Harvey (40 plays, 0.21 EPA/play).

Early-down EPA ranked 11th (821 plays, 43.7% success, 0.04 EPA/play). The highest individual EPA/play marks on those snaps were small samples: Lil'Jordan Humphrey 0.51 on 11 plays, Adam Trautman 0.39 on 19, Courtland Sutton 0.28 on 68. Warren Sharp's first-half early-down passing was harsher than the season aggregate: 4.9 yards per play (24th), -0.04 EPA (22nd), 39% success (23rd). Denver also went 5-2 when trailing at the half.

Red-zone EPA ranked third (170 plays, 44.7% success, 0.15 EPA/play). Bo Nix 0.84 EPA/play on 15 red-zone plays, Troy Franklin 0.30 on 21, RJ Harvey 0.21 on 40. The 2026 question is whether Webb's first-half script can lift the early-down row without giving back the red-zone one.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 1.4 (#10); they passed 57.0% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Bo Nix (44.2% success on 638 pass plays).

On rushes: J.K. Dobbins (45.8% success on 153 rush plays), RJ Harvey (36.1% success on 147 rush plays), Bo Nix (54.5% success on 66 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Denver called 640 pass plays (fourth) against 439 rushes (19th), a 59.3% pass rate (ninth) and a 40.7% rush rate (24th). Neutral-down PROE was 1.4 (10th) on a 57.0% pass share. Passing produced more yards per play (5.96, 18th) than rushing (4.64, 14th); rushing held a slight success-rate edge, 44.4% (11th) against a 44.1% pass success rate (17th). Nix posted 44.2% success on 638 pass plays and 54.5% on 66 rushes. Dobbins was 45.8% on 153 rush plays; Harvey was 36.1% on 147.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Denver produced 58 explosive plays for 1,691 yards (15th) and allowed 46 for 1,459 (third-fewest). Passing supplied most of the created chunk plays (47 of 58); Sutton led that group, which is why Waddle is here after a last-place 12% rate of 20-plus-yard receptions. The defense's allowed explosives mostly came through the air, and Cover 1 was the shell that gave up the largest raw total.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Denver lived in 11 personnel in 2025 (754 plays at 1.40 full-PPR points per play). Waddle's arrival changes the three-wide hierarchy in that look — Sutton, Franklin, and Bryant were the 2025 names — while the tight-end room stays Engram, Trautman, Nate Adkins, and Dallen Bentley on the 53-man roster after Justin Joly was waived.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #28; play-action rank #10 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Denver used pre-snap motion on 46.5% of plays (28th), with those snaps averaging 1.45 full-PPR points versus 1.29 without motion. Play action appeared on 15.1% of plays (10th), with a 46.6% success rate and 1.65 fantasy points per play versus 1.31 without it. Those are descriptive 2025 splits rather than evidence that either design caused the difference.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Bo Nix operated as Denver's central volume engine in 2025, pacing the NFL with 612 pass attempts while steering the offense through high-usage, quick-distribution concepts. Across 17 DraftKings-tracked games, Nix generated +0.05 EPA per dropback with a -2.0% completion percentage over expected, averaging 19.6 DraftKings points per game alongside a 13.4 DK floor, a 29.7 DK ceiling, and three Slate Hits. While his aggregate efficiency featured lower-tier marks—completing 63.4% of his passes (28th), averaging 6.4 yards per attempt (28th), gaining 10.1 yards per completion (28th), and converting 32% of his dropbacks into a first down or touchdown (25th)—he provided steady negative-play mitigation. Only Bryce Young recorded a lower yards per attempt among playoff passers, yet Nix saw just 13.5% of his dropbacks lose 1.0 EPA or worse, which ranked second across the league and kept Denver consistently on schedule.

Nix still led the league with seven game-winning drives. It did not get him to the Super Bowl. Sharp's wrap is that a freak injury kept him out of the AFC Championship and severely limited the offense that night. He is on his rookie contract, Sharp ranks the quarterbacks 17th, and Week 1 already happened: 17-of-28, 131 yards, one touchdown, and one interception in a 31-10 loss at Kansas City. Twenty-three sacks taken ranked first in the league.

The 2026 change on that script is who calls it and who runs past the sticks. Payton handed play-calling to Davis Webb. Waddle is the trade that has to turn 6.4 yards per attempt (28th) and a last-place 12% rate of 20-plus-yard catches into something that does not need seven game-winning drives. Sutton is still the 124-target holdover. Webb's first script in Kansas City did not stretch the field: Nix threw for 131 yards, and Waddle's debut was one catch for two yards.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Warren Sharp ranks Denver's receiving corps 10th entering 2026 after the Waddle trade. The 2025 volume still ran through Courtland Sutton and Troy Franklin. Sutton led the club with 124 targets (21% of team targets in the Sharp recap), 74 catches, 1,017 yards, seven touchdowns, and +43.8 Receiving EPA. Franklin had 104 targets (18% team share), six scores, and a 12.7-yard average depth of target. Franklin also led the red-zone target table with 21 looks (23.6% share) against Sutton's 20 (22.5%), and he led early-down targets 78-68. Those are two different hierarchies: Sutton won the season target count, Franklin won the red-zone and early-down target rows.

Evan Engram handled the tight-end volume over 16 games with 76 targets, 13% of team targets, 4.3 air yards per target, 53 early-down looks, and 11 red-zone targets. His NFL+ TGT% row (21.2%) is his share of targets in that qualifying sample, and RJ Harvey added 58 targets and five receiving touchdowns from the backfield. Marvin Mims Jr. had 51 targets and three red-zone looks, Pat Bryant had 49 targets, eight red-zone looks, and +10.2 Receiving EPA in 12 games, and Adam Trautman (23) and Nate Adkins (11) filled the rest of the tight-end tree. Marcedes Lewis is gone. Justin Joly was waived; Dallen Bentley made the 53-man roster behind Engram, Trautman, and Nate Adkins.

Waddle is the 2026 change to that tree. Sharp's Miami counting line is 64 catches, 910 yards, and six touchdowns; the prior-club NFL+ card is 16 games, 100 targets, 25.0% TGT%, 12.3 air yards per target, and +26.2 Receiving EPA. From Week 5 to 17 with Tyreek Hill out, Sharp had him 24.3% team target share, 48.4% of air yards, and 2.47 yards per route. The live question is how Waddle reshapes a target tree that sent 124 looks to Sutton, 104 to Franklin, and 76 to Engram, after a Broncos debut of one catch for two yards.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Denver’s 2025 ground attack operated through a split backfield where volume and down-to-down efficiency frequently diverged. J.K. Dobbins logged 10 games, handling 153 attempts while producing -1.5 Rush EPA, a positive +1.0 rushing yards over expected per attempt, and a 44.4% success rate. Dobbins served as an effective early-down grinder, yet his limited availability pushed substantial work toward RJ Harvey. Across a full 17-game slate, Harvey logged 146 attempts but encountered significant efficiency headwinds, finishing with -27.5 Rush EPA, -0.6 RYOE per attempt, and a 39.7% success rate. Harvey nevertheless proved critical in finishing drives inside the 20-yard line, leading the backfield with 29 red-zone rushes, 11 red-zone targets, 40 red-zone opportunities, and 9 combined red-zone touchdowns. Dobbins added 20 red-zone rushes on zero red-zone targets, converting those 20 opportunities into 4 combined red-zone touchdowns. Rotational touches were sparse, as Tyler Badie recorded 2 red-zone carries and 4 red-zone targets for 6 opportunities without a score, while Jaleel McLaughlin notched 5 red-zone carries, zero targets, and 1 touchdown.

The 2026 room is still Dobbins and Harvey, plus Jonah Coleman (pick 108) as the listed insurance for a back who has never played a full season. Burton left for Cleveland, while holdover Adam Prentice has been elevated from the practice squad for each of Denver's first two games after playing 12% of the offensive snaps in the opener. Sharp ranks the running backs 21st. Dobbins' 5.0 yards per carry (7th among backs with 100-plus runs) and 13.7% of carries for 10-plus yards (5th) are why Denver brought him back on a two-year deal. Harvey's 3.7 YPC (42nd of 49), 5.5% explosive-run rate (47th), and 3.0 YPC on 19 playoff carries are why Coleman is in the building. In Week 1, Dobbins led with 8 carries for 36 yards; Harvey had 3 rushes for 18 and 4 catches for 23. Harvey is questionable with a hamstring for Week 2. The listed depth is Dobbins, Harvey, Coleman, and Tyler Badie, so Coleman is on the 53-man roster as more than Dobbins insurance if Harvey cannot go.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): RJ Harvey 12 (7 rush, 5 rec); Courtland Sutton 7 rec; Troy Franklin 6 rec; Bo Nix 5 rush; J.K. Dobbins 4 rush. Passing TDs: Bo Nix 25. Defense TDs: Ja'Quan McMillian (1 def TD). Special teams: Wil Lutz 28/32 FG, 39/39 XP; Marvin Mims Jr. 1.

The offensive scoring distribution flowed primarily through Bo Nix and his dual-threat rookie partner RJ Harvey. Nix delivered 25 passing touchdowns through the air while personally contributing five scores on the ground. Harvey emerged as the focal point near the goal line, leading the team with 12 combined touchdowns by pairing seven rushing scores with five receiving trips to the end zone. Out wide, Courtland Sutton supplied seven receiving touchdowns, and Troy Franklin developed into a dependable complementary threat by securing six receiving scores of his own. J.K. Dobbins rounded out the backfield punch by punching in four rushing touchdowns.

Beyond the primary offensive attack, Denver generated supplemental points across both defense and special teams. Cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian produced a defensive touchdown to spark the turnover-driven opportunities on that side of the ball. On special teams, Marvin Mims Jr. chipped in a return touchdown, while kicker Wil Lutz delivered steady execution by converting 28 of 32 field goal attempts and finishing a perfect 39-for-39 on extra points.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Denver scored its points in the second half. First-quarter output was 4.3 points (21st) and 14.9 full-PPR fantasy points (26th), then the second quarter rose to 6.6 points (20th) with 26.7 fantasy points (5th). The third quarter sat at 4.5 points and 18.3 fantasy points (both 18th) before the fourth-quarter peak of 7.7 points (9th) and 25.4 fantasy points (8th), which matches Sharp's +64 fourth-quarter point margin.

The defense's fewest points allowed were in the first quarter (3.8, 8th) and the fourth (3.9, 3rd). Opponents' best quarter was the second (5.8 points, 10th; 21.0 fantasy points, 13th), and third-quarter fantasy points allowed were 15.8 (7th).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #4, Secondary #2.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Alex Singleton led the club with 135 tackles; Nik Bonitto 14.0 sacks, Jonathon Cooper 8.0 sacks, John Franklin-Myers 7.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Alex Singleton: 3 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 4 PD; Talanoa Hufanga: 6 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 11 PD; Riley Moss: 3 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 19 PD; Brandon Jones: 0.5 sacks, 1 INT, 7 PD; Justin Strnad: 5 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD; Ja'Quan McMillian: 5 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 2 INT, 9 PD; Nik Bonitto: 14 TFL, 14.0 sacks, 1 PD; Jonathon Cooper: 8 TFL, 8.0 sacks, 4 PD; John Franklin-Myers: 6 TFL, 7.5 sacks.

Denver's 2025 sack tape ran through Nik Bonitto (14 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, 28 quarterback hits) and Jonathon Cooper (eight sacks, eight TFL, 16 hits). John Franklin-Myers added 7.5 sacks, then signed with the Titans. Cooper is on the Commissioner's Exempt List and cannot practice or play, so 15.5 of last year's 68 sacks came from Franklin-Myers and Cooper, neither of whom is currently available to Denver. Alex Singleton led the club with 135 tackles; Justin Strnad had 58 tackles, 4.5 sacks, and an interception. Dondrea Tillman had four sacks and two interceptions. Malcolm Roach had four sacks inside. Dre Greenlaw was released March 12. Onyedim is the draft candidate Sharp lists for the Franklin-Myers vacancy, with Roach and Sai'vion Jones already under contract.

On the back end, Riley Moss broke up a team-high 19 passes with 80 tackles and an interception. Pat Surtain II had 12 passes defensed and an interception. Ja'Quan McMillian mixed 56 tackles, five TFL, four sacks, two interceptions, and nine passes defensed. Talanoa Hufanga had 106 tackles, six TFL, two sacks, and 11 passes defensed; Brandon Jones had 78 tackles and seven breakups. P.J. Locke left for the Cowboys and Delarrin Turner-Yell departed. Tycen Anderson is the free-agent safety add behind that group.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Denver’s secondary allowed 1.49 fantasy points per play in Cover 1 (215 snaps, 4th stingiest) and 1.58 in Cover 3 (162 snaps, 8th). Cover 2 was 1.32 across 112 snaps (2nd). Those three shells were the volume. Cover 4 was the leakiest high-usage look at 1.71 on 61 snaps (10th), and Cover 6 sat at 1.63 on 29 snaps (15th).

2 Man allowed 0.96 per play on 50 snaps (2nd). Cover 0, a coverage shell, allowed 1.63 over 45 snaps and ranked first in that sample. P.J. Locke is gone; Tycen Anderson is the listed safety add. The 2026 question is whether that snap mix still looks like 2025 once the safety depth chart is different.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Wil Lutz: 28/32 FG, 39/39 PAT.

Jeremy Crawshaw led with 75 punts (30 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Marvin Mims Jr.: 25 returns for 658 yards.

Punt returner Marvin Mims Jr.: 29 returns for 452 yards.

Special teams tackler Devon Key: 26 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Wil Lutz went 28 of 32 on field goals (87.5%), 4 of 6 from 50-plus with a long of 57, and 39 of 39 on extra points. Jeremy Crawshaw punted 75 times, 30 inside the 20, with zero blocks. Marvin Mims Jr. returned 25 kickoffs for 658 yards and 29 punts for 452, which is most of the club's 1,491 kickoff and 481 punt return yards. Devon Key led special-teams tackling with 26 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs. Lutz and Crawshaw remain; Mims is out (foot) for Week 2, with Badie and Harvey listed behind him on kickoffs and Riley Moss on punts.

Penalty Analysis

Sharp gave the Broncos a B for their Penalties & Discipline grade. Denver finished as a top-five unit at forcing penalties on opposing offenses. In home matchups, 64% of the penalties generated against opponents were pre-snap violations consisting of false starts, delay of game, and illegal formations. The defense ranked among the top five squads at drawing opponent infractions on third down. The offense trimmed its penalty output by roughly 25% from the first half to the second half, and Sharp had Denver with a net positive penalty advantage across both the opening and final quarters of play.

Warren Sharp noted that Denver finished as the most penalized defense in the league on a per-game basis, and that generating opponent mistakes helped balance the overall ledger. The defense committed the most automatic first downs conceded via penalty across the NFL, even though 65% of those infractions occurred on early downs — a rate slightly higher than the combined league baseline on first and second down. Denver tied Detroit for the league's highest per-game defensive penalty average on third down. The unit was flagged for defensive pass interference more than any other defense in football, surrendering 17.5 yards per infraction against a league average of 15.2 yards. Entering 2026, those third-down flags and the league-high DPI rate are the 2025 penalty traits that still follow this defense.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 66 penalties for 522 yards (#20). Most common: Offensive Holding (25), False Start (18), Delay of Game (6). Most flags in Shotgun (18), Under Center (12), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Garett Bolles (6), Mike McGlinchey (6), Luke Wattenberg (5).

Defense: 57 penalties for 589 yards (#30), including 1 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (20), Defensive Offside (9), Roughing the Passer (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (10), Cover 2 (6). Most flagged players: Pat Surtain II (9), Riley Moss (9), Nik Bonitto (8).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Denver's penalty distribution leans on line-of-scrimmage flags and contact infractions on the perimeter. On offense, holding accounted for 25 flags, leading all offensive infractions, while false starts produced another 18. The offense was also assessed 6 delay of game penalties, 6 offensive pass interference calls, and 2 face mask violations.

On the other side of the ball, defensive pass interference was the defense's most frequent infraction, 20 accepted flags. Defensive offside accounted for 9 penalties, with 5 roughing the passer calls, 5 defensive holding whistles, and 4 illegal contact penalties.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Jaylen Waddle WR23.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Bo Nix (17.6 FPavg), Courtland Sutton (12.8 FPavg), RJ Harvey (12.2 FPavg), J.K. Dobbins (11.6 FPavg), Troy Franklin (10.1 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Sutton led Denver's full-PPR scoring against each of the three coverages the offense saw most often: Cover 3, Cover 2, and Cover 1, with Franklin finishing second against Cover 3 and Cover 1. Engram led the smaller Cover 4 sample, while Harvey topped the Cover 0 and Cover 9 splits. Those are cumulative 2025 fantasy-point totals by coverage, not target-rate or matchup-efficiency measures.

Skill adds: Jaylen Waddle (WR) (via trade).

Skill losses: Michael Burton (FB) to the Browns and Marcedes Lewis (TE).

Skill draft picks: Jonah Coleman (RB, Rd 4, Washington), Justin Joly (TE, Rd 5, NC State), and Dallen Bentley (TE, Rd 7, Utah).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Jaylen Waddle's prior club was Miami. In 16 DraftKings games he averaged 11.4 points with a 7.0 floor, a 20.9 ceiling, two Slate Hits, and a $6,100 median salary (1.90 FP/$). The NFL+ card from that same 2025 sample is 100 targets, 25.0% TGT%, 12.3 air yards per target, and +26.2 Receiving EPA. Sharp's counting line is 64-910-6. That is a GPP/Cash prior-club archetype, not a 2026 weekly recommendation.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Courtland Sutton, 17 Denver games: 13.0 DKavg, 8.0 floor, 20.6 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $6,000, 2.17 FP/$. He led the club with 124 targets, 20 red-zone looks, and +43.8 Receiving EPA.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Troy Franklin, 17 games: 10.6 DKavg, 5.1 floor, 20.8 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $4,900. The ceiling and hits are real; the 5.1 floor is why this stays GPP. He led red-zone targets (21) and early-down targets (78) on 104 total looks.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: RJ Harvey, 17 games: 12.1 DKavg, 4.6 floor, 22.0 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $5,300. Nine combined red-zone touchdowns on 40 opportunities sit under that ceiling. The 4.6 floor keeps it GPP.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: J.K. Dobbins, 10 games: 12.2 DKavg, 9.0 floor, 15.5 ceiling, $5,700. The 9.0 floor and 153-carry role are the Cash case. He has not played a full season; Coleman is the listed insurance, not a 2025 salary sample.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Bo Nix, 17 games: 19.6 DKavg, 13.4 floor, 29.7 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $6,100, 3.27 FP/$. Five rushing touchdowns and 25 passing scores are in that sample.

Inside Scoop

Denver finished 14-3 last season, but Warren Sharp still has the Broncos at 9.5 wins and third in the AFC West. That is not a rebuild bet. The offensive line is ranked first, the secondary second, and Sharp ranked the front seven fourth before Jonathon Cooper landed on the Commissioner's Exempt List. He notes that the top ten defenders plus 17 of the top 20 defensive snap-takers return. What makes the 14-3 incomplete is everything around those trenches. Jaylen Waddle arrived via trade after a year when 20-plus-yard receptions landed at 12%, last in the league. Davis Webb is calling plays after Payton kept that job for 17 years. J.K. Dobbins signed a two-year extension and has still never finished a healthy season. Nix is back after the ankle injury that kept him out of the AFC Championship.

Kansas City already supplied the first glimpse: 31-10, 176 yards, two turnovers, and Waddle's Broncos debut at one catch for two yards. Jacksonville is next at home on a minus-one rest edge, then the Rams on Sunday night with a plus-one, inside a six-week gauntlet. One stretch will not settle whether Webb's more aggressive calls help Nix, or whether 11 one-score wins were the whole 14-3.

That still leaves Denver as one of the more interesting 14-win clubs in this series. Sharp's preseason snapshot installed them as favorites in 10 of 17 games with a -1.7 average line, -2.1 at home and -1.3 on the road. Their 14-3 ATS record matched the standings, while a 7-10 record to the over reflected how often games stayed below market totals. From a DFS perspective, the 2025 profiles tell a layered story: Nix and Sutton showed floor-plus-ceiling combinations that fit GPP/Cash archetypes, Waddle's Miami tape was also GPP/Cash, and Franklin and Harvey carried more tournament-shaped volatility. Those are historical profiles rather than weekly 2026 recommendations. If the line holds, Waddle actually stretches the field, and the defense stays close to last year's 18.3 points allowed, then last year's 14-3 can look like a foundation that still has to prove it in January rather than a peak that depended on repeating an extraordinary 11-2 record in one-score games.

---

Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.