NFL 2026 PREVIEW: DETROIT LIONS

The Detroit Lions enter the 2026 campaign with high expectations after finishing the prior season with a 9-8 record. Warren Sharp’s forecast projects 10.5 wins and a first-place division finish, buoyed by a Strength of Schedule ranked 1 on a scale where 1 represents the easiest slate and 32 the hardest. The team operates as consistent favorites, carrying a season-average spread of -3.5 that reflects home and road averages of -4.9 and -2.0 respectively. Sharp’s 2026 outlook identifies the Receivers and Running Backs as the strongest positional units, both ranking second league-wide. Conversely, the Offensive Line and Secondary are viewed as the weakest links, each sitting at number 14. This combination of elite skill position talent and a favorable schedule sets the stage for another competitive year in Detroit.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Larry Borom (RT), D.J. Wonnum (EDGE), Christian Izien (S), Roger McCreary (CB), Chuck Clark (S), Devin White (LB), Tyler Conklin (TE), and Josh Dobbs (QB); Isiah Pacheco (RB) (IR Sept 1; miss ≥4); Cade Mays (C) (IR, wrist); Juice Scruggs (C) (via trade).

Key Departures: Taylor Decker (LT), Alex Anzalone (LB) to the Buccaneers, David Montgomery (RB) to the Texans, Amik Robertson (CB) to the Commanders, Graham Glasgow (RG), D.J. Reader (IDL) to the Giants, Roy Lopez (IDL) to the Cardinals, Kalif Raymond (WR) to the Bears, Grant Stuard (LB) to the Rams, Kyle Allen (QB) to the Bills, Kayode Awosika (RT) to the Chargers, Josh Paschal (EDGE), Daniel Thomas (S) to the Browns, Arthur Maulet (CB), Jalen Mills (CB), Terrion Arnold (CB) released June 29, Zach Cunningham (LB), Zeke Turner (LB), Tyrus Wheat (EDGE) to the Cowboys, Trystan Colon (C), Anthony Firkser (TE), Dan Skipper (LT), Jamarco Jones (LT), Shane Zylstra (TE), Teddy Bridgewater (QB) (retired), and Jabari Small (RB) waived September 2.

Unavailable / status: Isiah Pacheco (RB, IR Sept 1; miss ≥4); Cade Mays (C, IR — wrist, 8–10 week recovery timetable reported after the injury; Scruggs at center); Kendrick Law (WR, IR June 17); Brian Branch (S, PUP — Week 5 earliest); Kerby Joseph (S, PUP — Week 5 earliest); Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Reserve/Retired Aug 9). Sharp RB #2, OL #14, and Secondary #14 predate this opening-month look.

Dan Campbell enters his sixth season with a Sharp head-coach rank of 5, providing stability as the Lions transition to Drew Petzing in his first year as offensive coordinator. The backfield sees a notable shift with David Montgomery departing for the Texans. Isiah Pacheco signed as a 2026 free-agent add, but Detroit placed him on Reserve/Injured on September 1 with no return timetable; he will miss at least four games. The immediate committee is Jahmyr Gibbs with Sione Vaki and Jacob Saylors after Jabari Small was waived September 2. While Sharp still ranks the receiving corps and running backs second, that RB grade predates Pacheco's IR. The offensive line must absorb Taylor Decker, Graham Glasgow, and several interior reserves. Detroit added Larry Borom via free agency and acquired Juice Scruggs via trade; Cade Mays is on IR with a wrist injury, with an 8–10 week recovery timetable reported after the injury, so Scruggs steps in at center. Josh Dobbs signed August 10 after Teddy Bridgewater retired August 9; the initial QB room is Goff and Dobbs.

On defense, Kelvin Sheppard returns for his second season as coordinator. Sharp ranks the secondary 14th, a grade that predates an opening month without Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph (both Reserve/PUP, Week 5 earliest) and after Terrion Arnold's June 29 release. Roger McCreary and Chuck Clark are the notable 2026 secondary adds, with Christian Izien also in via free agency. Devin White is a 2026 linebacker add after Alex Anzalone’s departure to the Buccaneers. D.J. Wonnum joins the edge rush rotation. The interior defensive line loses D.J. Reader to the Giants and Roy Lopez to the Cardinals. With the easiest schedule in the league according to Sharp’s SOS scale, these personnel adjustments sit under a 10.5-win, first-place projection that was published before the IR/PUP wave.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

Detroit addressed its most glaring roster hole by selecting Blake Miller, a tackle from Clemson, with the seventeenth overall pick. This move directly responds to the departure of left tackle Taylor Decker and the lack of a proven free-agent replacement at the position. Sharp notes that Miller was a four-year starter at right tackle for the Tigers and projects him to continue at that spot in Detroit, which would allow Penei Sewell to shift to the left side. The Lions benefited from Miller remaining available, as many other first-round offensive linemen are viewed as developmental prospects who might not be ready to contribute immediately to a contending team. By securing a player with extensive starting experience, Detroit aims to stabilize the edge protection without forcing a rookie into a role he has not previously held.

The remainder of the draft focused on adding depth to units that Sharp ranks outside the top tier, particularly along the defensive line and in the secondary. Detroit used its second-round selection, pick forty-four, on Derrick Moore, a defensive end from Michigan, to bolster the pass rush. In the fourth round, the team added Jimmy Rolder, a linebacker from Michigan, followed by cornerback Keith Abney II from Arizona State and wide receiver Kendrick Law from Kentucky in the fifth round. Kendrick Law was placed on Reserve/Injured in June, removing the fifth-round rookie from Detroit’s 2026 receiver rotation. The class concluded with Skyler Gill-Howard, a defensive tackle from Texas Tech, in the sixth round and Tyre West, a DT/DL from Tennessee, in the seventh. West did not make the 53 and is on the practice squad — later-round defenders are still competing for roles, not locked into the opening-week rotation.

Sharp Forecasts Detroit Lions with 10.5 Wins

Sharp forecasts Detroit Lions at 10.5 wins, positioning the franchise as a division leader with a projected first-place finish. The model assigns the team the easiest schedule in the league, ranking their strength of schedule first on a scale where one represents the most favorable path and 32 the most difficult. This projection builds on a 9-8 actual record from the prior season, while the betting market lists them as 3.5-point favorites on average across the campaign. They are expected to play as favorites in fourteen games and underdogs in just three, with home spreads reflecting their status as favorites and road spreads also reflecting their status as favorites. Unit evaluations highlight elite skill position groups, as Sharp ranks both the receivers and running backs second overall, though the offensive line and secondary sit at fourteenth, indicating areas where depth will be tested despite the high win expectation.

Health volatility defined the previous year and remains a critical variable for this outlook. The offense ranked fifteenth in player health, yet durability was scarce up front as rookie guard Tate Ratledge was the only offensive lineman to appear in all seventeen games, with Penei Sewell being the sole other blocker to exceed fifteen appearances. Defensive availability was even more precarious, as the unit finished last in defensive player health and thirty-first in total player health. To address roster turnover, the team added right tackle Larry Borom, edge rusher D.J. Wonnum, safety Christian Izien, cornerback Roger McCreary, safety Chuck Clark, linebacker Devin White, tight end Tyler Conklin, and quarterback Josh Dobbs via free agency, while acquiring center Juice Scruggs via trade. Cade Mays signed as a center but is on IR with a wrist injury, with an 8–10 week recovery timetable reported after the injury, and Scruggs filling in. Isiah Pacheco signed at running back and then went on IR September 1. Teddy Bridgewater retired August 9. These moves sit beside departures including left tackle Taylor Decker, linebacker Alex Anzalone who joined the Buccaneers, and running back David Montgomery who moved to the Texans.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Sharp ranks the Detroit Lions fifteenth in net rest edge, a middle-of-the-pack position that reflects a season-long accumulation of just one extra recovery day compared to the league average. This aggregate figure masks a volatile weekly distribution, as the team experiences seven weeks with a non-zero rest differential rather than a steady, predictable advantage. The schedule provides notable spikes in recovery time, including a three-day edge in Week 3 against the New York Jets and a substantial seven-day benefit in Week 7 versus Green Bay. Another three-day advantage appears in Week 13 on the road against Atlanta. These positive swings are counterbalanced by significant deficits, most notably a seven-day disadvantage in Week 11 when hosting Tampa Bay. The Lions do not dominate the league in overall rest metrics, but they do secure specific windows where preparation time exceeds the standard week.

The broader timing profile places the franchise nineteenth in general rest rank and twenty-fourth in preparation rank, suggesting that the calendar does not consistently favor their operational rhythm. Sharp’s assessment highlights a sixth-place ranking in negated bye status, which indicates favorable positioning regarding the bye week’s impact on the surrounding schedule structure. In terms of travel and prime-time exposure, the team ranks fourteenth in short-week road games and fifteenth in games off road Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football broadcasts. These rankings imply a moderate burden from compressed turnarounds and late-night away contests without reaching the extreme end of the spectrum. The combination of these factors results in a schedule that offers isolated benefits but lacks a comprehensive structural advantage in timing or recovery throughout the season.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club +1 days.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Jared Goff (8 INT, 5 FL), David Montgomery (1 FL), Jahmyr Gibbs (1 FL). Takeaways: Kerby Joseph (3 INT), D.J. Reed (2 INT, 1 FR), Jack Campbell (2 FR), Aidan Hutchinson (1 INT, 1 FR), Trevor Nowaske (1 FR), Amik Robertson (1 INT)

The Lions entered the 2026 campaign with a ball-security profile that ranked among the league’s most reliable, having committed just 15 giveaways in the prior season. Jared Goff led the way with eight interceptions thrown and five fumbles lost, while running backs David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs each accounted for one fumble lost. This discipline helped Detroit finish fourth in the league in fewest giveaways and fourth in fewest interceptions thrown. However, the roster has shifted since those numbers were posted. David Montgomery is now with the Texans, leaving Jahmyr Gibbs as the primary returning ball carrier from that group. Isiah Pacheco signed via free agency, then went on IR September 1 and is not part of the Week 1 backfield. The immediate ball-carriers next to Gibbs are Sione Vaki and Jacob Saylors.

On the defensive side, the takeaway production was less dominant, ranking 19th overall with 19 total takeaways. Kerby Joseph led the secondary with three interceptions, while D.J. Reed added two picks and one fumble recovery. Aidan Hutchinson contributed one interception and one fumble recovery, showcasing his versatility beyond pass rushing. The defense also benefited from Jack Campbell’s two fumble recoveries and Trevor Nowaske’s one recovery. Notably, cornerback Amik Robertson, who recorded one interception, has departed for the Commanders. His exit creates a gap in the secondary’s playmaking depth, even as Christian Izien joins the safety room. The team recovered only six fumbles, ranking 24th in that category, which suggests that while they protected their own ball well, they did not consistently capitalize on opponent mistakes to generate extra possessions.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Jared Goff 259 yards; David Montgomery 5 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 31/541 ≈ 5.7% of shotgun plays; 7/504 ≈ 1.4% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Aidan Hutchinson (14.5), Al-Quadin Muhammad (11), Jack Campbell (5), Derrick Barnes (4)

Jared Goff absorbed 259 yards in losses from sacks during the 2025 season. David Montgomery was also charged with five sack yards on one non-quarterback passing play. The frequency of these negative plays varied significantly by offensive alignment, with the team allowing sacks on 31 of 541 shotgun plays for a share of approximately 5.7%. In contrast, the offense was far more secure when operating under center, surrendering only 7 sacks across 504 such plays for a much lower share of roughly 1.4%. These figures represent the proportion of total formation plays that resulted in a sack, rather than traditional dropback-specific rates, highlighting a clear disparity in protection stability between the two primary offensive sets.

On the defensive side of the ball, Aidan Hutchinson (14.5) and Al-Quadin Muhammad (11.0) led the unit in recorded sacks, followed by Jack Campbell (5.0) and Derrick Barnes (4.0).

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 1 (#7) — Kalif Raymond (punt return).

Punt returns 35 for 291 yards; kickoff returns 66 for 1756 yards.

The Detroit Lions generated one return touchdown during the season, a score that came via a punt return by Kalif Raymond. This single play placed the team seventh in the league for combined punt and kickoff return scores. While the scoring output was limited to that one instance, the unit handled a significant volume of chances, fielding 35 punts for 291 yards and managing 66 kickoff returns for 1,756 yards.

Defensively, the coverage teams prevented opponents from finding the end zone on special teams returns. The Lions allowed zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns, a result that ranked first in the league. This clean sheet against return scores highlights effective containment, even as the offense relied on Raymond’s lone breakout play to contribute to this specific scoring category.

Penalties

Offense: 53 penalties for 358 yards (#5). Most common: False Start (18), Offensive Holding (13), Illegal Formation (4). Most flags in Under Center (17), Shotgun (8), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Tate Ratledge (7), Jameson Williams (4), Taylor Decker (4).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 51 penalties for 360 yards (#23), including 1 special-teams punt-return holdings — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Holding (13), Defensive Pass Interference (9), Unnecessary Roughness (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (5), 2 Man (5). Most flagged players: Brian Branch (7), Rock Ya-Sin (7), Jake Bates (5).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

In this table, #1 means fewest flags (cleanest) and #32 means the most flags. Detroit’s offense was relatively clean: 53 penalties for 358 yards, fifth-fewest in the league. The team as a whole had 104 penalties for 718 yards, 13th-fewest. False starts led the offensive list (18), then holding (13) and illegal formation (4). More of those offensive flags came from under-center plays (17) than shotgun (8).

The defense-side row is a separate pile: 51 flags for 360 yards, ranked 23rd-fewest — worse than average on this count, but not among the league’s most-flagged teams here. It also includes some special-teams calls, not only downs from scrimmage. Warren Sharp’s write-up later in this preview is a different scorecard. He treats the offense as very clean on third down, and the defense as one of the five most-penalized units in the league. That Sharp defense ranking is not this table’s #23.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 806 plays, 46.0% success, 0.10 EPA/play (#4). Most efficient on early downs: Isaac TeSlaa (18 plays, 0.83 EPA/play), Sam LaPorta (31 plays, 0.61 EPA/play), Jameson Williams (72 plays, 0.48 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 191 plays, 40.8% success, 0.15 EPA/play (#4). Most efficient in the red zone: Isaac TeSlaa (11 plays, 1.25 EPA/play).

The Lions generated strong efficiency on early downs, running 806 plays with a 46.0% success rate and 0.10 EPA per play to rank fourth in the league. Isaac TeSlaa led this group with an impressive 0.83 EPA per play across 18 plays, while Sam LaPorta contributed 0.61 EPA per play over 31 plays. Jameson Williams also featured prominently as a top performer, recording 0.48 EPA per play on 72 early-down opportunities. These metrics highlight a unit that consistently moved the chains and maintained positive expected value when facing standard down-and-distance situations.

Red zone execution mirrored this high level of performance, as the team posted a fourth-ranked 0.15 EPA per play across 191 red zone plays with a 40.8% success rate. Isaac TeSlaa again stood out as the most efficient option in tight spaces, delivering 1.25 EPA per play on 11 red zone plays. This ability to sustain efficiency near the goal line complements their broader offensive strengths and supports the projection of a division-leading finish. The combination of volume and high-value outcomes in these critical areas underscores why the offense remains a central pillar of their forecasted success.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -4.6 (#21); they passed 51.1% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): Jared Goff (48.4% success on 614 pass plays).

On rushes (qualifying 2025 PBP rush plays — not official NFL attempt totals): Jahmyr Gibbs (39.9% success on 243 qualifying PBP rush plays), David Montgomery (43.4% success on 159 qualifying PBP rush plays).

The Lions leaned on their passing game more than most of the league, ranking 11th in pass rate at 58.9% while generating the ninth-highest volume with 619 pass plays. This aerial approach paid dividends in efficiency, as the unit finished fifth in yards per play at 6.95 and sixth in overall success rate at 48.1%. Jared Goff led the way on individual pass plays, recording a 48.4% success rate across 614 qualifying snaps. When the team did choose to run, they were highly effective despite lower volume, ranking ninth in yards per rush at 4.75. Detroit's 41.1% rush rate ranked 22nd, while its 41.2% rushing success rate ranked 24th. Yards per rush still ranked ninth at 4.75.

On neutral downs, the offense passed slightly less than models predicted, posting a -4.6 pass rate over expected (PROE) that ranked 21st, with a 51.1% pass share in those situations. Within the rushing attack, David Montgomery was the most consistent option, achieving a 43.4% success rate on 159 qualifying play-by-play rush plays. Jahmyr Gibbs contributed heavily to the volume with 243 qualifying rush plays, converting at a 39.9% success rate. The balance between high-volume passing and efficient rushing allowed the offense to maintain top-tier productivity without relying exclusively on one dimension.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Detroit generated 80 explosive plays in 2025 (20+ yards), ranking third in raw count: 66 passing (1,871 yards) and 14 rushing (592 yards). Jameson Williams led with 23 receiving explosives (680 yards), Amon-Ra St. Brown added 20 (558), and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for 17 (10 rush, 7 receiving). These are raw counts, not per-snap rates.

The Lions allowed 68 explosives (#26 on the fewest-allowed scale): 58 through the air (1,759 yards) and 10 on the ground (328 yards). Fifty-eight of those 68 allowed explosives came through the air. Cover 1 was the most common coverage on allowed explosives (22). Those splits remain raw counts, not coverage efficiency.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

The Lions leaned heavily on 11 personnel, deploying one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers for 654 plays. This package generated 1.75 fantasy points per play in full PPR scoring, far outpacing the 1.32 points per play produced from 12 personnel sets that featured two tight ends. Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Isaac TeSlaa were the most frequent participants in these three-wide looks. When the team shifted to 13 personnel with three tight ends, the output dipped slightly to 1.28 points per play over 52 snaps, with David Montgomery joining Brock Wright, LaPorta, Ross Dwelley, and Williams as the primary options. Two-back formations appeared sparingly, totaling just 36 plays and yielding 0.83 points per play with Montgomery and Gibbs sharing the backfield alongside LaPorta, Williams, and St. Brown.

Formation choice also created distinct efficiency gaps, as shotgun alignments accounted for 51.5 percent of snaps and delivered 1.93 fantasy points per play. Under-center plays made up 48.0 percent of the offense but produced a lower 1.27 points per play average. Run-pass options were integrated into these structures rather than standing apart, appearing on 42 plays for 1.07 points per play. The data shows that production differed by formation, with the shotgun approach providing the highest per-play return for the skill players involved.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #10; play-action rank #9 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

The Lions deployed pre-snap motion on 59.8 percent of their plays in 2025, a frequency that ranked tenth across the league. This approach appeared on 629 recorded plays and resulted in a 46.9 percent success rate. When the offense utilized motion, the average fantasy points per play in full PPR formats sat at 1.72, compared to 1.42 on plays without such movement. The data shows a clear difference in output between these two scenarios, with the motion-heavy plays generating higher per-play averages than those run from static alignments.

Play action was used less frequently than motion, appearing on 15.1 percent of plays for a ninth-best league rank. These 159 instances carried a 52.8 percent success rate, which is notably higher than the success rate found in the motion category. The fantasy production gap was also wider here, as play-action plays averaged 2.34 full PPR points per play while plays without play action fell to 1.47. This suggests that while the team relied more heavily on shifting personnel before the snap, their most efficient individual plays often came from fake-handoff designs.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Jared Goff remains the clear starter for Detroit, and Sharp ranks the quarterback room thirteenth heading into 2026. Although his efficiency dipped slightly from the elite levels seen in 2024, Goff still posted strong numbers with 7.9 yards per attempt and a 5.9% touchdown rate. He finished second in the league in passing touchdowns and has maintained a touchdown rate of at least 4.9% over each of the last four seasons while keeping interceptions to just 1.7% during that span. His contract situation looms large, as cap hits rise to $62.6 million in 2027 and $69.6 million in 2028, which could prompt an extension discussion, but there are no immediate concerns about his performance or role. Josh Dobbs signed August 10 after Teddy Bridgewater retired August 9; the initial depth behind Goff is only Dobbs.

The offensive line is ranked fourteenth by Sharp, providing a solid foundation for the passing game despite the departure of left tackle Taylor Decker and right guard Graham Glasgow. Cade Mays is on IR with a wrist injury, with an 8–10 week recovery timetable reported after the injury; Juice Scruggs steps in at center, while Larry Borom adds depth at right tackle. Sharp’s OL #14 grade predates that IR. This unit must maintain its cohesion to support Goff’s style, which relies on timing and accuracy rather than scrambling. The combination of a top-tier receiving corps and a competent, if not dominant, offensive line suggests the Lions will continue to leverage their personnel efficiently through the air.

Goff’s weekly fantasy production reflects his consistency, averaging 19.6 DraftKings points across 17 tracked games with a floor of 13.3 and a ceiling of 28.5. He secured three slate wins and offered a solid return on investment at an average salary of $6,100. His ability to limit mistakes while finding the end zone keeps the offense moving even when explosive plays are less frequent. The staff will likely continue to utilize play-action and motion to create separation, trusting Goff to make quick decisions against varied coverages. The passing game remains a strength built on veteran stability and schematic precision.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Win = weeks in the top N at that DK position on the salary slate (QB 5 / RB·WR 12 / TE 6). DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Lions’ receiving corps second heading into 2026, a projection built on the return of its most productive pass-catchers despite the departure of several role players. Amon-Ra St. Brown remains the clear focal point after commanding a team-high 172 targets and a 30.4 percent target share in 2025. His volume translated to significant red-zone involvement as well, where he led all receivers with 35 looks inside the 20-yard line. Jameson Williams operated as the primary vertical threat, securing 102 targets while averaging 12.4 air yards per target, the highest mark among the team’s wideouts. The tight end room saw Sam LaPorta draw 49 targets (40 receptions), though his season was limited to nine games. With Kalif Raymond, Anthony Firkser, and Shane Zylstra listed as departures, the Lions will look to internal depth and new additions to fill out the rotation behind their established stars.

The 2026 outlook features a mix of returning holdovers and fresh faces aiming to sustain the unit’s high standing. Isaac TeSlaa emerges as a notable contributor from the 2025 ledger, having drawn 27 targets and earning 11 red-zone looks despite a modest 9.2 percent overall target share. His efficiency metrics were strong, including a 14.7 air yards per target average and a 3.13 fantasy points per target rate on early downs. Brock Wright also returns after 22 targets and 14 receptions, providing a reliable safety valve option. Fifth-rounder Kendrick Law was placed on Reserve/Injured in June, removing the rookie from Detroit’s 2026 receiver rotation. The initial active wideouts are Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Isaac TeSlaa, and Tay Martin. General manager Brad Holmes identified TeSlaa as the No. 3 receiver. The tight end group will still need to replace the production lost with Firkser and Zylstra exiting free agency; Tyler Conklin is the veteran TE add next to LaPorta and Wright.

Red-zone usage patterns from 2025 suggest a continued emphasis on St. Brown and the running backs, but the receiving staff must distribute opportunities more broadly given the roster turnover. St. Brown’s 38.9 percent share of red-zone targets dwarfs the next closest receiver, Jameson Williams, who saw just 10 percent of those looks. Isaac TeSlaa punched above his weight in this area with a 12.2 percent share, indicating potential for expanded responsibility in scoring positions. With LaPorta returning healthy and Tyler Conklin in as a veteran tight end, the Lions aim to maintain their elite receiving status without relying solely on their top two wideouts. Law’s June IR stint takes the fifth-round receiver out of that early mix.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery formed a potent one-two punch in 2025, with Gibbs leading the way by carrying the ball 243 times. Montgomery added 158 rushing attempts before his departure to the Texans, leaving a significant void in the backfield rotation. Sharp ranks the Lions running backs unit second overall for 2026, a grade that predates Pacheco’s September 1 IR. Pacheco signed as a 2026 free agent, then went on IR, so he is not part of the Week 1 pairing with Gibbs. The immediate committee is Gibbs with Sione Vaki and Jacob Saylors after Jabari Small was waived September 2. The offensive line is viewed separately, with Sharp assigning it a rank of 14th — a figure that predates Cade Mays’s wrist IR and an 8–10 week recovery timetable reported after the injury, with Juice Scruggs filling in at center.

Efficiency metrics from 2025 show both backs were effective when given opportunities. Gibbs posted a rush EPA of -7.4 and a success rate of 41.2%, while Montgomery recorded a rush EPA of -4.4 and a 42.4% success rate. PBP and NFL+ success rates use different denominators, so these figures should be interpreted as distinct measures of play quality rather than direct volume conversions. In the red zone, Gibbs was the primary weapon, handling 52 rushes and 15 targets across 67 total opportunities. He scored 14 total red-zone touchdowns, far outpacing Montgomery’s six scores on 35 rushes and two targets within 37 opportunities. Gibbs generated 123.7 total red-zone fantasy points against an expected value of 92.0, highlighting his heavy usage near the goal line.

Until Pacheco returns, Detroit’s rushing outlook centers even more heavily on Gibbs, with Sione Vaki and Jacob Saylors handling complementary work. Montgomery’s departure removes 158 carries and 37 red-zone opportunities from the 2025 backfield, potentially increasing Gibbs’ early-season ceiling while shifting short-yardage and depth responsibilities to less-established options. Detroit hopes Pacheco can return later in the season as a complement, but there is currently no timetable. Sharp’s OL #14 grade also predates Cade Mays’ wrist injury, adding another layer of early-season uncertainty.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Lions finished the 2025 regular season as a potent offensive unit, averaging 28.3 points per game to rank fourth in the league. This real-world scoring output translated even more impressively into fantasy metrics, where the team generated 98.3 full PPR fantasy points per game. That aggregate production placed them second overall, indicating that the high volume of points was driven by significant skill-player involvement rather than just defensive scores or special teams plays. The disparity between the fourth-ranked point total and the second-ranked fantasy output suggests a highly efficient passing and rushing attack that consistently found end zones while accumulating substantial yardage and receptions.

Defensively, the unit allowed 24.3 points per game, which ranked 22nd in the NFL. In terms of fantasy defense against, opponents averaged 86.0 full PPR fantasy points per game against this squad, ranked 18th. While the point prevention was below average, the fantasy allowance was slightly better relative to the league, though still in the bottom half. That 2025 production now carries into a 2026 schedule Sharp ranks as the easiest in the league, providing a favorable backdrop for the offense to maintain its high scoring pace while the defense seeks improvement.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Lions built their 2025 scoring profile on dominant second and fourth quarters, ranking third in the league for real points and fantasy production during the second period. They averaged 9.8 NFL points and 31.0 full PPR fantasy points per game in that span, establishing a clear offensive peak before halftime. This momentum carried into the final frame, where Detroit ranked second in real scoring at 8.8 points per game and tenth in fantasy output with 24.8 FPavg. The first quarter also showed promise, as the unit placed fifth in fantasy scoring and ninth in real points, suggesting the offense found its rhythm early rather than waiting for late-game adjustments.

Defensive consistency proved more elusive, particularly in the opening and closing stages of games. Opponents scored the most against Detroit in the fourth quarter, averaging 8.1 real points and 26.1 fantasy points — #27 and #25 on the fewest-allowed scale (sixth-most and eighth-most allowed). The first quarter presented similar vulnerabilities (#25 real / #23 fantasy allowed: eighth-most and tenth-most). The second quarter was better (#11 and #15 fewest allowed). The third quarter was middling-to-poor (#19 / #22).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #9, Secondary #14.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Jack Campbell led the club with 176 tackles; Aidan Hutchinson 14.5 sacks, Al-Quadin Muhammad 11.0 sacks, Jack Campbell 5.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Jack Campbell: 9 TFL, 5.0 sacks, 4 PD; Alex Anzalone: 4 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, 9 PD; Derrick Barnes: 6 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD; Brian Branch: 5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 9 PD; Aidan Hutchinson: 14 TFL, 14.5 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD; Amik Robertson: 2 TFL, 1 INT, 12 PD; Al-Quadin Muhammad: 9 TFL, 11.0 sacks.

Sharp rates the Detroit Lions’ front seven ninth overall and the secondary fourteenth, though these unit grades were published before the latest roster turnover. The defense must replace significant interior presence after D.J. Reader (IDL) departed for the Giants and Roy Lopez (IDL) left for the Cardinals. Linebacker depth also takes a hit with Alex Anzalone (LB) joining the Buccaneers, while Amik Robertson (CB) exits to the Commanders. To help offset these losses, the team added D.J. Wonnum (EDGE), Christian Izien (S), Roger McCreary (CB), Chuck Clark (S), and Devin White (LB). Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are Reserve/PUP (Week 5 earliest); Terrion Arnold was released June 29. Secondary #14 predates that opening-month look.

The impact of these personnel changes will determine if the unit can maintain its previous effectiveness despite losing key contributors up the middle and in the secondary. Izien (S) provides additional flexibility in the back end, while Wonnum (EDGE) offers pass-rush support on the perimeter. With the departure of established veterans like Reader and Anzalone, the remaining holdovers and new additions must coalesce quickly to justify the top-15 unit rankings assigned by Sharp.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Jake Bates: 27/34 FG, 54/56 PAT.

Jack Fox led with 56 punts (28 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Jacob Saylors: 33 returns for 897 yards.

Punt returner Kalif Raymond: 32 returns for 241 yards.

Special teams tackler Trevor Nowaske: 16 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Jake Bates handled the bulk of the scoring opportunities in 2025, converting 27 of 34 field goal attempts while missing only two extra points on 56 tries. His longest successful kick traveled 59 yards, and he connected on four attempts from 50 yards or longer. Jack Fox managed the punting duties with a heavy workload, dropping 56 punts during the season. Fox placed 28 of those kicks inside the opponent’s 20-yard line and did not allow any blocks.

Kalif Raymond served as the primary punt returner last season, gathering 32 returns for 241 yards before his departure to the Bears. Jacob Saylors led the kickoff return unit with 33 kickoff returns that produced 897 total yards and remains active; the club has said he could be involved on kickoff returns in 2026. Greg Dortch was a preseason punt-return candidate but did not make the roster. Week 1 punt returner is not yet an official designation, so that role remains unsettled. Trevor Nowaske provided the most consistent coverage support, recording 16 combined tackles across punt and kickoff units.

Penalty Analysis

On third down, Detroit’s offense was among the league’s cleanest in 2025 — fewest offensive third-down penalties per game. Eight of the ten teams that were that disciplined made the playoffs; the Lions were one of two that did not. They were also poor at drawing free first downs from the other team’s flags, ranking 31st, ahead of only Miami — a lingering trait from the Ben Johnson years.

The defense was the problem side. Sharp ranks it among the five most-penalized defenses for the second straight season, and it led the league in third-down penalties per game. Opponents picked up an automatic first down via penalty on 40% of those third-down flags, above the 31.6% league average, the largest net disadvantage in the NFL. Detroit led the league in defensive holding, with 40% of those holds on third down, and ranked third in declined defensive holding (usually because the play already gained more than the penalty would have given). In 2024 the defense had been top-five at drawing flags on opposing offenses; in 2025 it fell to bottom-five. At Ford Field they ranked second at generating offensive holding on visitors; on the road they ranked 31st. The table below uses a different count, where #1 means fewest flags. Its defense-side #23 (23rd-fewest) is not Sharp’s ranking of Detroit as a top-five most-penalized defense.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 53 penalties for 358 yards (#5). Most common: False Start (18), Offensive Holding (13), Illegal Formation (4). Most flags in Under Center (17), Shotgun (8), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Tate Ratledge (7), Jameson Williams (4), Taylor Decker (4).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 51 penalties for 360 yards (#23), including 1 special-teams punt-return holdings — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Holding (13), Defensive Pass Interference (9), Unnecessary Roughness (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (5), 2 Man (5). Most flagged players: Brian Branch (7), Rock Ya-Sin (7), Jake Bates (5).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

The offense drew 53 penalties for 358 yards, fifth-fewest in the league. False starts led with 18, then 13 holding calls and four illegal formation. Tate Ratledge had seven flags; Jameson Williams and Taylor Decker had four each. Most of those offensive flags came from under center (17), versus eight in shotgun and one from pistol.

The defense-side row is 51 penalties for 360 yards, 23rd-fewest — remember #1 here means fewest flags, so this is worse than average, not 23rd-worst. That pile includes some special-teams calls (punt-return holds, kickoff and PAT formation), not only the defense on scrimmage plays. It is not Sharp’s top-five most-penalized defense ranking from the paragraphs above.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Sam LaPorta TE7, Amon-Ra St. Brown WR4, Jahmyr Gibbs RB1.

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the DFS call: GPP, Cash, GPP/Cash, or Season Long. Every team's top skill players belong here, especially the starting quarterback. Use the table metrics as evidence. Sharp's listed top players are the headliners.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Jahmyr Gibbs (21.6 FPavg), Amon-Ra St. Brown (19.1 FPavg), Jared Goff (17.5 FPavg), Jameson Williams (12.9 FPavg), Sam LaPorta (11.9 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Cover 3 was the most common shell (190 plays, 30.4%) and produced 333 total full-PPR points at 1.75 per play, with Amon-Ra St. Brown 84 and Jameson Williams 57. Cover 2 was next in volume (147 plays, 23.6%, 313 total, 2.13 FP/play) — St. Brown 84 and Jahmyr Gibbs 50. Cover 1 (138 plays, 22.1%) produced 325 total points at 2.35 FP/play, led by Williams 81 and St. Brown 75.

Per-play, 2 Man was the highest FPavg (3.89 on 17 plays), with Sam LaPorta 13 and Kalif Raymond 12. Cover 0 (30 plays, 4.8%, 83 total, 2.77) was St. Brown 28 and Isaac TeSlaa 10. Cover 4 (49 plays, 7.9%, 130 total, 2.64) was TeSlaa 28 and Gibbs 15. Cover 6 (37 plays, 5.9%, 73 total, 1.98) was St. Brown 25 and Williams 7. These are season-long aggregates from the table, not a proof of weekly floor or coverage efficiency beyond the listed FPavg.

Skill adds: Isiah Pacheco (RB — IR, no current return timetable), Josh Dobbs (QB), and Tyler Conklin (TE).

Skill losses: David Montgomery (RB) to the Texans, Kalif Raymond (WR) to the Bears, Kyle Allen (QB) to the Bills, Anthony Firkser (TE), Shane Zylstra (TE), and Teddy Bridgewater (QB) (retired).

Skill draft picks: Kendrick Law (WR, Rd 5 — IR / unavailable).

Jahmyr Gibbs is Sharp’s RB1 and GPP/Cash. He led the 2025 full-PPR tape at 21.6 FPavg (18.8 xFPavg) and out-scored expected work. Montgomery is in Houston and Pacheco is on IR, so cash lineups and rushing props start with Gibbs as a featured back, not a split. Week 1 depth is Vaki and Saylors. Sharp’s RB #2 unit grade assumed a veteran complement that is not there yet.

Jared Goff is Cash. He averaged 17.5 FPavg (18.2 xFPavg) and 19.6 DraftKings points with a 13.3 floor, but only three slate wins and a 28.5 ceiling. That is a season-long and cash floor, not a tournament spike. Stack him with St. Brown in cash. Use him with Williams when you are building a GPP passing game.

Amon-Ra St. Brown is Sharp’s WR4 and GPP/Cash. He is the cash WR at 19.1 FPavg against 20.4 xFPavg, so the tape still shows unused expected points, and he posted six slate wins with a 27.9 DraftKings ceiling. He led or shared the coverage-table scoring against Cover 3, Cover 2, Cover 0, and Cover 6. Raymond’s exit to Chicago hits depth, not St. Brown’s role.

Jameson Williams is GPP. He is not on Sharp’s top-player list, but the tape is built for tournaments: 12.9 FPavg, 12.4 air yards per target, 23 receiving explosives, a 5.7 DraftKings floor against a 26.9 ceiling, and the coverage-table lead vs Cover 1 (81 full-PPR points). Six slate wins at a $5,700 average salary is leverage next to St. Brown’s $7,900.

Isaac TeSlaa is the dark-horse WR. General manager Brad Holmes named him the No. 3 receiver. The 2025 sample is small — 5.4 FPavg, a 0.0 DraftKings floor, a 13.9 ceiling, and zero slate wins at $3,100 — but the efficiency is real: 14.7 air yards per target, 11 red-zone looks, 1.25 EPA per play in the red zone, and the coverage-table lead vs Cover 4 (28 full-PPR points). That is a GPP dart, not cash. Tay Martin made the 53 without a 2025 scoring row here, so he is a name-only sleeper until the tape shows work. Kendrick Law is on IR and is not in that mix.

Sam LaPorta is Sharp’s TE7 and Cash when he is active. He posted 11.9 FPavg in nine games (9.6 xFPavg) with four slate wins and a 20.2 ceiling. That is a smaller sample than Gibbs and St. Brown, but the board still has him as a top-seven tight end. Conklin is veteran depth, not a TE7 takeover.

Inside Scoop

Sharp assigns the Detroit Lions a B grade for Penalties & Discipline. Separately, his preseason outlook forecasts 10.5 wins, a first-place division finish, and the easiest schedule on his scale. Sharp’s betting snapshot also lists Detroit as an average 3.5-point favorite, including a 4.9-point home margin. Coming off a 9-8 season, he ranks the receivers and running backs second league-wide, with the Offensive Line and Secondary both 14th. Those rankings and betting expectations were established before the opening-month injuries and roster changes below.

Jahmyr Gibbs opens the season without the veteran complement Sharp’s Running Backs ranking originally assumed. David Montgomery is now in Houston, while Isiah Pacheco signed with Detroit before landing on injured reserve September 1. That leaves Gibbs opening alongside Sione Vaki and Jacob Saylors. Juice Scruggs is handling center duties while Cade Mays recovers from a wrist injury on injured reserve, with an eight-to-ten-week recovery timetable reported after the injury. Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are on Reserve/PUP and cannot return before Week 5, while Terrion Arnold was released June 29. Teddy Bridgewater retired August 9, Josh Dobbs is now Jared Goff’s backup, and Tyler Conklin joins the tight end room as the veteran addition.

For sides and moneylines, Sharp’s preseason snapshot still presents Detroit as a 3.5-point favorite on the league’s easiest schedule, but the opening month without Branch and Joseph, combined with Scruggs starting at center, creates more volatility than those preseason betting expectations suggest. The 2025 Lions went 10-7 against the spread and 10-7 to the over while scoring 28.3 points per game, fourth in the NFL, and allowing 24.3, which ranked 22nd. That profile keeps Detroit relevant for higher-scoring game environments. From a fantasy standpoint, Goff, Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta remain the offense’s primary high-floor pieces when healthy, while Jameson Williams carries the more volatile tournament-style ceiling.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.