NFL 2026 PREVIEW: GREEN BAY PACKERS

Green Bay enters the 2026 campaign with Warren Sharp’s forecast projecting 10.5 wins and a second-place finish in the division. The Packers are coming off a 9-7-1 record in 2025, a season where they scored 23.0 points per game while allowing 21.2 points per game. Sharp’s outlook highlights a significant contrast in unit strength, ranking the quarterback group tenth while ranking the offensive line 27th. This balance will be tested against a mid-pack schedule, as the Strength of Schedule ranks sixteenth on a scale where one is easiest and thirty-two is hardest. With a season-average spread of -2.8, the team faces a pivotal year defined by replacing key departures while leveraging their returning core.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Javon Hargrave (IDL), Benjamin St-Juste (CB), Skyy Moore (WR), Tyrod Taylor (QB), and Jonnu Smith (TE); Zaire Franklin (LB) (via trade), Kaleb Johnson (RB) (via trade), and Mark Redman (TE) (via trade).

Key Departures: Malik Willis (QB) to the Dolphins, Trevon Diggs (CB), Romeo Doubs (WR) to the Patriots, Rashan Gary (EDGE) to the Cowboys, Quay Walker (LB) to the Raiders, Elgton Jenkins (LG) to the Browns, Dontayvion Wicks (WR) to the Eagles, Rasheed Walker (LT) to the Panthers, Emanuel Wilson (RB) to the Seahawks, John FitzPatrick (TE), Zayne Anderson (S) to the Dolphins, Desmond Ridder (QB), Colby Wooden (IDL) to the Colts, Clayton Tune (QB), Lecitus Smith (RG), McCallan Castles (TE), and Brandon McManus (K) (Released).

Unavailable / status: Josh Jacobs (RB) (Commissioner's Exempt List; cannot practice or play in games); Micah Parsons (EDGE) (Reserve/PUP, ACL, miss ≥4); Luke Musgrave (TE) (Reserve/PUP, miss ≥4); Savion Williams (WR) (IR/DFR at cutdown). Front 7 #13 predates Parsons PUP and Gary's departure. Running Backs #16 predates Jacobs' Exempt List and the Kaleb Johnson trade. Receivers #14 predates Musgrave PUP and the Jonnu Smith / Mark Redman adds.

Matt LaFleur enters his eighth season as head coach, with Sharp ranking him 11th among NFL leaders. Offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich begins his fifth year in the role. The offense must navigate significant turnover at wide receiver after Romeo Doubs left for the Patriots and Dontayvion Wicks left for the Eagles. Skyy Moore signed in free agency and is the projected primary kick and punt returner. Tyrod Taylor is the backup behind Jordan Love after Malik Willis departed for the Dolphins. The offensive line also turns over: Elgton Jenkins signed with the Browns and Rasheed Walker signed with the Panthers, against an offensive-line grade Sharp ranks 27th.

Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List. He cannot practice or play in games, and Green Bay has said only that it hopes he appears sometime in 2026. MarShawn Lloyd is the likely Week 1 feature back, with Chris Brooks and Kaleb Johnson behind him. Johnson arrived from Pittsburgh on August 30 after Jacobs became unavailable. Sharp’s Running Backs grade of 16th was issued before the Exempt List and that trade, so it does not describe this backfield as currently constructed.

The tight end room is Tucker Kraft, Josh Whyle, Jonnu Smith, and Mark Redman. Smith signed on August 29. Redman arrived via trade a day later. Luke Musgrave is on Reserve/PUP and will miss at least four games.

On defense, Jonathan Gannon takes over as defensive coordinator in his first season with the team. The front seven loses Rashan Gary to the Cowboys and Quay Walker to the Raiders. Micah Parsons led the 2025 rush with 12.5 sacks, then tore his ACL. Sharp wrote that he may miss the start of 2026, and Green Bay has since placed him on Reserve/PUP, so he will miss at least four games. Javon Hargrave signed in free agency to bolster the interior. Zaire Franklin arrived via trade at linebacker. Benjamin St-Juste joins the secondary as a free-agent corner after Trevon Diggs left. Sharp’s Front 7 grade of 13th was issued before Parsons’ PUP listing and Gary’s departure.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

Green Bay entered the draft without a first-round selection following the trade for Micah Parsons, yet the front office secured immediate help for a secondary that Sharp ranks 11th by selecting Brandon Cisse in the second round at pick 52. The South Carolina cornerback brings youth and upside to a unit that lost Trevon Diggs to free agency, though Sharp notes that Cisse is still refining his anticipation skills after making just 21 career starts. At 20 years old on draft day, the rookie’s occasional lapses in coverage awareness are understandable given his limited experience, but his physical tools offer a high ceiling for a defense looking to replace departed starters. The Packers continued to address defensive line depth in the third round by taking Chris McClellan from Missouri at pick 77, adding interior pressure potential to a rotation that also saw the departure of key contributors.

The middle and late rounds focused on positional needs and special teams. Dani Dennis-Sutton arrived in the fourth round at pick 120, followed by Kentucky center Jager Burton in the fifth round at pick 153. Sixth-round cornerback Domani Jackson (pick 201) is a historical draft-table name only: Green Bay released him at cutdown and signed him to the practice squad the next day. Five of the six 2026 picks made the initial 53; Jackson was the exception. The class closed with Florida kicker Trey Smack at pick 216, and Smack is the 2026 kicker after McManus was released.

Sharp Forecasts Green Bay Packers with 10.5 Wins

Sharp forecasts Green Bay Packers at 10.5 wins, a projection that aligns with their status as second-place finishers in the division and reflects a season-average spread of -2.8 points. The team enters the 2026 campaign as favorites in thirteen contests and underdogs in just four, operating with a home average line of -4.7 compared to a road average of -0.8. This outlook rests on a mid-pack schedule difficulty, ranked sixteenth on Sharp’s scale where one represents the easiest slate and thirty-two the hardest. While the quarterback room holds the tenth-best unit ranking, the offensive line presents a significant vulnerability at twenty-seventh overall. The roster has seen notable turnover, including the departure of left tackle Rasheed Walker to the Panthers and guard Elgton Jenkins to the Browns, which complicates the protection scheme for returning holdovers.

The upside case hinges on whether the offense can maintain its elite third-down efficiency after converting 48.8% of such opportunities in 2025, a rate that far exceeded the league average of 39.5%. Pressure came at the twenty-ninth-highest rate last season. Replicating that third-down efficiency will depend primarily on Love, an offensive line Sharp ranks 27th, and an early-season backfield operating without Jacobs. Hargrave and Franklin address separate needs on defense.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Sharp places the Green Bay Packers at 18th in net rest edge, a middle-of-the-pack standing that reflects a season total of minus-two rest days. The team experiences nine weeks with a non-zero rest differential, meaning the schedule offers neither a consistent advantage nor a persistent disadvantage in recovery time. Specific swings appear in Sharp’s week-by-week rest edges, such as a plus-three day benefit before the road game against Tampa Bay and a plus-four day edge prior to visiting New Orleans. Conversely, the calendar includes tougher turns, including a minus-three day deficit for the Sunday Night Football home matchup against Dallas and a significant minus-seven day shortfall for the away contest in Detroit.

The Packers rank first in prep rank and 10th in overall rest rank, suggesting favorable conditions for practice planning and general recovery windows despite a near-neutral season-long net rest differential of -2 days. They sit 18th in short-week road games rank and ninth in games off road SNF/MNF rank, indicating a moderate frequency of difficult travel scenarios combined with a relatively low number of late-night road appearances that disrupt normal routines. A 19th-place negated bye rank shows that the midseason break does not heavily offset other scheduling quirks. This mix of high prep efficiency and average rest distribution creates a balanced temporal profile for the season.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -2 days.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Jordan Love (6 INT, 2 FL), Josh Jacobs (2 FL), Savion Williams (1 FL), Malik Willis (1 FL), Clayton Tune (1 INT). Takeaways: Evan Williams (3 INT, 1 FR), Xavier McKinney (2 INT), Keisean Nixon (1 INT, 1 FR), Javon Bullard (1 FR), Rashan Gary (1 FR), Isaiah McDuffie (1 INT)

Green Bay entered the 2025 season with elite ball security, ranking third in the league for giveaways and first for interceptions thrown. Jordan Love led the way with six interceptions and two fumbles lost, while Josh Jacobs added two fumbles lost to the team total of six. The defense struggled to create turnover opportunities, finishing twenty-sixth in takeaways and twenty-eighth in interceptions. Evan Williams paced the unit with three interceptions and one fumble recovery, supported by Xavier McKinney’s two picks. Keisean Nixon contributed one interception and one fumble recovery, but the overall lack of defensive playmaking left the team with a net turnover margin of just plus-one.

The 2026 roster changes introduce uncertainty to both sides of the ball. Malik Willis, who recorded one fumble lost in 2025, has departed for the Dolphins. Love remains the starter. Tyrod Taylor, a long-tenured NFL veteran, signed as the backup in free agency. On defense, the loss of Rashan Gary to the Cowboys removes a player who secured one fumble recovery last season. The Packers added Javon Hargrave on the interior line via free agency, but these moves do not directly replace the takeaway production of departed secondary contributors. With a schedule ranked sixteenth in difficulty, maintaining the low giveaway rate from 2025 will be critical if the defense cannot significantly improve its interception totals.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Jordan Love 169 yards; Clayton Tune 44 yards; Malik Willis 15 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 23/554 ≈ 4.2% of shotgun plays; 6/367 ≈ 1.6% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Micah Parsons (12.5), Rashan Gary (7.5), Devonte Wyatt (4), Quay Walker (2.5)

The Green Bay Packers allowed only 29 sacks in 2025, ranking seventh (1 = fewest sacks taken). That is a relatively clean conversion result, not evidence of poor protection by itself. Sharp still ranks the offensive line 27th, and Love faced pressure on a career-high 39.5% of dropbacks — pressure often did not become sacks. Micah Parsons led the defense with 12.5 sacks and 27 quarterback hits. Rashan Gary was second with 7.5. Sharp notes that Parsons and Gary combined for 20 of the club’s 36 sacks, so the rest of the roster produced 16. Those 2025 totals are historical: Gary is in Dallas, and Parsons is on Reserve/PUP after tearing his ACL.

Return Touchdowns

Punt returns 26 for 146 yards; kickoff returns 60 for 1509 yards.

The Green Bay Packers did not score a punt or kickoff return touchdown in 2025 (0, #13). They fielded 26 punts for 146 yards and 60 kickoff returns for 1,509 yards. Those are volume and scoring counts, not proof of a secure-possession or risk-avoidance scheme.

Opponents also scored zero punt or kickoff return TDs against Green Bay (#1 fewest allowed). That coverage result does not, by itself, prove a field-position advantage.

Penalties

Offense: 52 penalties for 373 yards (#3). Most common: False Start (22), Offensive Holding (17), Face Mask (2). Most flags in Shotgun (13), Under Center (5). Most flagged players: Rasheed Walker (7), Aaron Banks (5), John FitzPatrick (4).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 53 penalties for 445 yards (#25), including 5 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (10), Defensive Offside (7), Defensive Holding (7). Most flags on Cover 1 (14), Cover 3 (6), Cover 2 (5). Most flagged players: Keisean Nixon (10), Micah Parsons (6), Javon Bullard (5).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

The Packers’ offense ranked third in the Hacking DFS table (1 = fewest flags) with 52 penalties for 373 yards. False starts were the most common type (22), followed by 17 offensive holdings. That #3 rank is the discipline marker; 22 false starts is the leading category, not a ranked “low volume” of pre-snap flags.

On the other side of the ball, the defense-side nflverse bucket ranked 25th (53 flags for 445 yards). That total includes 5 Offensive Holding flags on punt returns and 1 Illegal Formation on kickoffs/PAT — not a pure scheme-defense count. The club’s overall Hacking DFS rank is 15th (105 flags, 818 yards). Sharp’s situational splits on p.274 are a different methodology: he has the defense as the No. 1 most-penalized unit in the fourth quarter, which does not invert these season-long Hacking DFS ranks.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 760 plays, 46.4% success, 0.08 EPA/play (#7). Most efficient on early downs: Tucker Kraft (30 plays, 0.60 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 171 plays, 46.8% success, 0.08 EPA/play (#7). Most efficient in the red zone: Tucker Kraft (12 plays, 1.27 EPA/play).

The Green Bay Packers built a highly efficient foundation on early downs, generating positive expected points added across 760 plays. Their 46.4 percent success rate paired with a 0.08 EPA per play mark to secure the seventh-best ranking in the league for this situation. Tucker Kraft stood out as the most efficient option during these critical first and second down opportunities, producing a robust 0.60 EPA per play over his 30 recorded plays. This level of consistency helps the offense maintain momentum and avoid difficult third-down scenarios.

Red zone execution mirrored that early-down effectiveness, as the team ranked seventh again with a 0.08 EPA per play across 171 plays. The success rate ticked up slightly to 46.8 percent, indicating reliable production when field position compressed. Kraft remained the primary beneficiary of this efficiency inside the 20-yard line, where he posted an impressive 1.27 EPA per play over 12 plays. Such high-value contributions in scoring territory are essential for converting drives into points rather than settling for field goals.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -5.0 (#25); they passed 49.6% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): Jordan Love (49.7% success on 461 pass plays), Malik Willis (65.8% success on 38 pass plays), Clayton Tune (15.0% success on 20 pass plays).

On rushes (qualifying 2025 PBP rush plays — not official NFL attempt totals): Josh Jacobs (43.6% success on 234 qualifying PBP rush plays), Emanuel Wilson (44.0% success on 125 qualifying PBP rush plays), Jordan Love (61.8% success on 34 qualifying PBP rush plays).

Green Bay was not a pass-heavy offense. The table shows 519 pass plays at a 52.3 percent rate (28th) against 474 rushes at 47.7 percent (5th). On neutral downs they passed on 49.6 percent of snaps, a pass rate over expected of -5.0 that ranked 25th. That run lean defined the offensive rhythm even as the unit navigated a schedule Sharp rates as mid-pack at 16th overall.

Individual efficiency varied significantly among the quarterbacks who took snaps. Malik Willis led the group with a 65.8 percent success rate across 38 qualifying pass plays, surpassing Jordan Love who posted a 49.7 percent success mark on 461 such plays. Clayton Tune struggled in his limited sample, recording only a 15.0 percent success rate on 20 pass plays. On the ground, Emanuel Wilson achieved a 44.0 percent success rate on his qualifying rush plays, edging out Josh Jacobs who converted 43.6 percent of his 234 qualifying PBP rush plays.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

The Packers generated 64 explosive plays (20+ yards), 10th in the league: 58 passing (1,751 yards) and 6 rushing (161 yards). They allowed 49 explosives, 5th-fewest: 41 passing and 8 rushing. That mix is a pass-heavy explosive profile on both sides of the ball, not proof that a 27th-ranked offensive line forced a vertical identity. Green Bay’s rush rate ranked 5th (47.7%), so the six rushing explosives sit next to a run-leaning play mix, not a team that abandoned the ground game.

Of the 49 explosives allowed, 41 came through the air and 8 on the ground. Those are volume counts, not per-snap coverage efficiency, and they do not by themselves establish “coverage breakdowns.” Romeo Doubs (12 explosives) and Dontayvion Wicks are 2026 departures; the 2025 table is historical. The 2026 WR group is Watson, Reed, Golden, Moore, Bo Melton, and rookie J. Michael Sturdivant, with Savion Williams on IR/DFR.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

The Green Bay Packers leaned heavily on the 11 personnel package, which features one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers. This grouping accounted for 610 plays and generated 1.49 fantasy points per play in full PPR scoring. Josh Jacobs, Tucker Kraft, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and Matthew Golden were the most utilized players in this spread. The team also ran 330 plays from the 12 personnel set with two tight ends, where Luke Musgrave and John FitzPatrick joined Jacobs, Doubs, and Golden as primary options. This heavier look produced 1.36 fantasy points per play. A two-running back alignment appeared sparingly on just 31 snaps, yielding a lower return of 1.09 fantasy points per play with Chris Brooks and Josh Jacobs sharing the backfield duties alongside Luke Musgrave, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks.

Formation choice clearly separated efficiency levels for the offense. Shotgun alignments made up 55.8% of the plays and delivered the highest output at 1.67 fantasy points per play across 554 snaps. Under-center plays comprised 37.0% of the volume but resulted in a modest 1.15 fantasy points per play over 367 plays. The pistol formation saw limited use with 72 plays and a 0.95 fantasy point average. Run-pass options were embedded within these structures rather than standing alone as a separate category, appearing on 94 plays for a 1.21 fantasy point yield. Production differed by formation, with the shotgun approach providing the most consistent fantasy value for the skill players involved.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #14; play-action rank #15 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Green Bay utilized pre-snap motion on 548 plays, which represented a 55.2 percent rate that ranked 14th among all teams. These motion plays resulted in a 45.6 percent success rate and generated 1.38 fantasy points per play in full PPR formats. When the offense did not use motion, the fantasy average rose slightly to 1.48 points per play. The team employed play action on 141 plays for a 14.2 percent usage rate, good for 15th in the league. Play action calls were successful 57.4 percent of the time and produced 2.41 fantasy points per play. Plays without play action yielded a lower 1.26 fantasy points per play average.

The data shows that play action was used less frequently than pre-snap motion during the season. While motion appeared on more than half of the offensive snaps, play action was reserved for a smaller share of the playbook. The higher success rate on play action plays coincided with a notable increase in fantasy production compared with plays without play action. Conversely, the fantasy output on plays without motion was marginally higher than on plays where the offense shifted before the snap. These splits describe the efficiency of each concept without implying that one strategy directly caused the other’s results.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Jordan Love, the returning starter, delivered a highly efficient 2025, finishing sixth in quarterback rating at 101.2 while completing 66.3% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt. His ability to protect the football was evident with a 1.4% interception rate, which ranked sixth in the league, and he maintained a 5.2% touchdown rate that placed him tenth. Love achieved a career-high 47.3% success rate, good for seventh overall. Sharp’s chapter cites 0.22 EPA per dropback as second-best in the NFL; the NFL+ table below shows +0.19 EPA/DB and +3.9% CPOE — different samples, not a conversion of the same number. This production came despite significant adversity up front, as Love faced pressure on a career-high 39.5% of his dropbacks due to injuries across the offensive line. Sharp ranks the quarterback unit tenth heading into 2026, but the offensive line is a major vulnerability at 27th.

Tyrod Taylor signed in free agency as the backup after Malik Willis left for the Dolphins. The club also moved on from Desmond Ridder and Clayton Tune, so the 2026 quarterback room is Love and Taylor. Love’s DraftKings metrics show a 16.7-point average across 15 tracked games with a floor of 12.1 and a ceiling of 31.3. Fifth-round center Jager Burton (pick 153) is developmental interior depth, not an immediate fix for a 27th-ranked line.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Win = weeks in the top N at that DK position on the salary slate (QB 5 / RB·WR 12 / TE 6). DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Packers’ receiving corps fourteenth heading into 2026, a grade that predates Luke Musgrave’s Reserve/PUP (miss at least four games) and the late adds of Jonnu Smith (signed August 29) and Mark Redman (trade, August 30). The active six wide receivers are Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Matthew Golden, Skyy Moore, Bo Melton, and rookie J. Michael Sturdivant; Savion Williams is IR/designated to return. Doubs and Wicks are gone. The active tight end room is Tucker Kraft, Jonnu Smith, Josh Whyle, and Mark Redman. Kraft’s eight-game 2025 sample ended on a torn ACL; he was activated from PUP on July 31, returned to full team work including 11-on-11, and was named one of Green Bay’s five 2026 captains on September 7. Green Bay had still been managing that ACL recovery rather than declaring him unrestricted weeks in advance. Watson’s 23.0 percent target share in ten games and Golden’s 44 targets in fourteen remain the 2025 WR table headliners.

The red-zone distribution from 2025 highlights the production void left by departing pass-catchers. Doubs was the most frequent target near the goal line with 18 looks, accounting for 26.1 percent of such opportunities, while Kraft earned 12 red-zone targets for a 17.4 percent share. Christian Watson had six red-zone targets; Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks each had four. With Doubs and Wicks no longer on the roster, those high-leverage looks redistribute among Watson, Golden, Kraft, and the new tight ends. Kraft averaged 4.12 fantasy points per red-zone appearance in that eight-game ACL-shortened sample.

Early-down usage patterns from the previous season provide a blueprint for how the remaining personnel operated before the departures. Doubs led all qualifiers with 58 early-down targets, followed by Watson with 34 and Golden with 27. Musgrave recorded 31 total targets and a 15.2 percent share with 26 early-down looks. Moore is the projected return specialist more than a featured WR. The unit will rely on Watson’s deep-threat profile (17.6 air yards per target) and Kraft’s post-ACL availability, which yielded a 22.2 percent target share in eight games.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Josh Jacobs anchored the 2025 ground game with 234 carries, while Emanuel Wilson contributed 125 attempts before his departure to the Seahawks. Jacobs generated a negative rushing EPA of -23.2 and posted a 41.0% success rate, whereas Wilson recorded a -0.2 RYOE per attempt and a 42.4% success rate. PBP and NFL+ success rates use different denominators, so these efficiency markers should be viewed as distinct metrics rather than direct conversions of volume. The unit’s overall profile sits at number 16 in Sharp’s 2026 positional rankings, suggesting a middle-of-the-pack outlook despite the loss of Wilson’s depth role.

Red-zone usage heavily favored Jacobs, who logged 52 rushing attempts and six targets across 58 total opportunities inside the 20-yard line. He converted those chances into 13 total red-zone touchdowns, accumulating 99.2 fantasy points against an expected value of 82.1. Wilson managed three red-zone touchdowns on 24 rushes and three targets, finishing with 27.3 fantasy points. Chris Brooks saw minimal involvement with just three red-zone rushes and three targets, resulting in zero touchdowns and 2.0 fantasy points. The disparity in volume highlights how concentrated the high-value scoring work was within the primary back’s portfolio.

Looking ahead to 2026, the offensive line presents a significant constraint after ranking 27th in Sharp’s assessment. Jacobs’ 2025 volume (234 carries, 52 red-zone rushes) belongs to last season. He is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, cannot practice or play in games, and Green Bay has said only that it hopes he plays sometime in 2026. MarShawn Lloyd is the likely Week 1 feature back, with Chris Brooks in the mix and Kaleb Johnson added from Pittsburgh on August 30 for a 2028 sixth-round pick after Jacobs became unavailable. That trade is the replacement for Emanuel Wilson’s departed depth role. Sharp’s Running Backs grade of 16th was issued before the Exempt List and the Johnson trade. Fifth-round center Jager Burton (pick 153) is interior offensive-line depth, not a backfield fix.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Green Bay Packers finished the 2025 regular season with a middling scoring output, averaging 23.0 points per game to rank 16th in the league. This real-world production aligns closely with their fantasy footprint, as the unit generated 81.9 full PPR fantasy points per game for the 15th-best mark in the NFL. The slight divergence between the two metrics suggests that while the offense moved the ball effectively enough to sustain skill-player value, it did not always convert those opportunities into top-tier scoreboard results.

Defensively, the team was more effective at limiting opponents, allowing just 21.2 points per game to secure the 11th-fewest total in the league. That defensive stability extended to fantasy contexts as well, where they surrendered 77.9 fantasy points per game for the 12th-lowest figure. As the Packers look toward 2026, that balanced 2025 profile carries into a schedule that Sharp ranks 16th in difficulty, placing them squarely in the middle of the pack for upcoming competition.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Green Bay Packers display a stark contrast in scoring efficiency depending on the game clock, starting slowly before finding their rhythm late. They rank 29th in real points scored during the first quarter, averaging just 3.0 points, yet their defense is elite in that same span, allowing only 1.5 points per game to lead the league in fewest allowed. Fantasy production follows a different trajectory, as the offense ranks 13th in full PPR points during the opening period with 19.0 FPavg, while the defense again tops the chart by allowing the fewest opponent fantasy points at 10.5. The second quarter sees moderate output from both sides, with the offense scoring 6.8 real points (18th) and 22.2 fantasy points (17th), while surrendering 7.2 real points (18th) and 22.9 fantasy points (16th).

Momentum shifts significantly in the second half, particularly in the final period where the offense becomes most potent in traditional scoring. Green Bay ranks sixth in the NFL for fourth-quarter real points with 7.8 per game, although their fantasy output dips to 26th with 19.7 FPavg. Defensive performance deteriorates as games close out, as they allow 7.8 real points (25th-fewest) and 26.7 fantasy points (29th-fewest) in the fourth quarter. The third quarter offers a balanced middle ground, with the offense posting 5.2 real points (12th) and 20.9 fantasy points (13th), while the defense yields 4.1 real points (10th-fewest) and 17.8 fantasy points (15th-fewest).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #13, Secondary #11.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Quay Walker led the club with 128 tackles; Micah Parsons 12.5 sacks, Rashan Gary 7.5 sacks, Devonte Wyatt 4.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Quay Walker: 8 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 5 PD; Edgerrin Cooper: 4 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 4 PD; Xavier McKinney: 1.0 sacks, 2 INT, 10 PD; Evan Williams: 4 TFL, 3 INT, 5 PD; Isaiah McDuffie: 3 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 1 PD; Javon Bullard: 2 TFL, 3 PD; Micah Parsons: 12 TFL, 12.5 sacks, 1 PD; Rashan Gary: 7 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 1 PD; Devonte Wyatt: 6 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 2 PD.

Sharp rates Green Bay’s front seven 13th, a book grade issued before Micah Parsons went on Reserve/PUP and Rashan Gary signed with the Cowboys. Quay Walker signed with the Raiders. Javon Hargrave joined the interior in free agency, and Zaire Franklin arrived via trade at linebacker. Parsons led the 2025 pass rush with 12.5 sacks, then tore his ACL. Sharp wrote that he may miss the start of 2026. Green Bay has since placed him on Reserve/PUP, so he will miss at least four games. The 2026 pass rush therefore opens without Parsons for at least those four games and without Gary.

The secondary holds an 11th-place ranking from Sharp, but it also sees important roster changes with the departure of cornerback Trevon Diggs and safety Zayne Anderson to the Dolphins. Cornerback Benjamin St-Juste joins the group as a new addition, helping to replenish depth in the backfield. Sharp’s unit grades were published before these late roster moves were finalized, so the current composition reflects a mix of returning holdovers and new acquisitions rather than the exact personnel evaluated in the initial rankings.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Brandon McManus: 28/34 FG, 39/42 PAT.

Daniel Whelan led with 49 punts (18 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Savion Williams: 28 returns for 717 yards.

Punt returner Romeo Doubs: 15 returns for 94 yards.

Special teams tackler Chris Brooks: 14 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Brandon McManus handled the placekicking duties in 2025, converting 28 of 34 field goal attempts for an 82.4 percent success rate. His leg strength was evident on four makes from 50 yards or longer, including a career-long 61-yarder, while he missed just three of his 42 extra-point tries. That 2025 table is historical: Green Bay released McManus on May 8. Sixth-round pick Trey Smack made the 53 and is the only kicker currently on the active roster; Lenny Krieg is on the practice squad. Daniel Whelan remains the punter after 49 punts and 18 inside the 20 last season.

Savion Williams served as the 2025 kickoff returner (28 for 717 yards) and is now on IR / designated to return after cutdown — not an opening-month holdover. Romeo Doubs handled 15 punt returns for 94 yards before leaving for the Patriots. The punt-return job is not open: Skyy Moore signed largely for this role, is the projected primary returner, and ranked top 10 in the NFL in both kickoff- and punt-return average last year. Chris Brooks led coverage with 14 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs and remains in that mix with the Week 1 backfield.

Penalty Analysis

Green Bay’s discipline profile in 2025 revealed a stark split between venue and game script, ranking 26th in penalties per game during home contests while posting the second-largest home-versus-road penalty discrepancy in the league. The offense generally operated within efficient bounds, accounting for 43 percent of the team’s total infractions according to Sharp’s methodology, and ranked among the least penalized units on third-down plays. This early-game control was evident in the first quarter, where the Packers held a net positive advantage against opponents, but that leverage evaporated as games progressed. The majority of false start and offensive holding calls came on the road, with 61 percent of those specific infractions occurring away from Lambeau Field, suggesting that travel or hostile environments disrupted their pre-snap routine more than typical wear and tear.

The defensive unit was Sharp’s No. 1 most-penalized group in the fourth quarter and tied for No. 1 in surrendering automatic first downs via penalty in that span — his situational split, not the Hacking DFS season rank where #1 = fewest flags. That late-game penalty profile sits next to a second-half trend where 58 percent of all flags in Packers contests were assessed against Green Bay, compared with 42 percent against their opponents. While the team had been the top beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty on third down in 2024, that advantage declined sharply in 2025. Those late-game discipline concerns were visible in the playoff loss to Chicago, where Sharp notes that discipline and focus issues contributed to Green Bay surrendering a huge lead.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 52 penalties for 373 yards (#3). Most common: False Start (22), Offensive Holding (17), Face Mask (2). Most flags in Shotgun (13), Under Center (5). Most flagged players: Rasheed Walker (7), Aaron Banks (5), John FitzPatrick (4).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 53 penalties for 445 yards (#25), including 5 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (10), Defensive Offside (7), Defensive Holding (7). Most flags on Cover 1 (14), Cover 3 (6), Cover 2 (5). Most flagged players: Keisean Nixon (10), Micah Parsons (6), Javon Bullard (5).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

The Green Bay Packers’ offense was assessed 52 penalties for 373 yards, a total that ranked third in the league. False starts were the most frequent infraction with 22 occurrences, followed by 17 instances of offensive holding and two face mask calls. These flags clustered heavily in specific personnel groupings, as 13 penalties occurred out of the shotgun formation while five came from under-center alignments. Rasheed Walker led the unit with seven personal flags, Aaron Banks accrued five, and John FitzPatrick was called for four infractions before his departure to free agency.

On the other side of the ball, the defense-side nflverse bucket included 53 penalties for 445 yards, placing the team at number 25 in this metric. This aggregate includes six special-teams penalties: five offensive holdings on punt returns and one illegal-formation penalty on a kickoff/PAT play. Those flags sit in the defense-side nflverse bucket, so they are not a pure scheme-defense total.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Tucker Kraft TE5, Josh Jacobs RB10.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Josh Jacobs (15.8 FPavg), Jordan Love (15.5 FPavg), Tucker Kraft (14.7 FPavg), Christian Watson (13.2 FPavg), Malik Willis (12.9 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Cover 3 was the coverage Green Bay faced most often (141 plays, 25.5%) and produced 265 total full-PPR points at 1.88 per play, with Romeo Doubs 39 and Christian Watson 34. Cover 1 was close behind (133 plays, 24.0%, 322 total, 2.42 FP/play), led by Tucker Kraft 72 and Doubs 41. Cover 0 was rare (24 plays, 4.3%) but the highest FPavg at 5.31, again Doubs and Watson. Doubs is a 2026 departure, so those coverage totals are 2025 volume, not a current target map.

Skill adds: Skyy Moore (WR), Tyrod Taylor (QB), Jonnu Smith (TE), Kaleb Johnson (RB) (via trade), and Mark Redman (TE) (via trade).

Skill losses: Malik Willis (QB) to the Dolphins, Romeo Doubs (WR) to the Patriots, Dontayvion Wicks (WR) to the Eagles, Emanuel Wilson (RB) to the Seahawks, John FitzPatrick (TE), Desmond Ridder (QB), Clayton Tune (QB), and McCallan Castles (TE).

Unavailable / status: Josh Jacobs (RB) (Commissioner's Exempt List); Luke Musgrave (TE) (Reserve/PUP, miss ≥4); Savion Williams (WR) (IR/DFR).

Jordan Love is Cash. He averaged 15.5 FPavg against 17.2 xFPavg and 16.7 DraftKings points with a 12.1 floor, a 31.3 ceiling, and three slate wins at $6,000. Sharp ranks the quarterback unit 10th. That is a cash floor with spike weeks, not a weekly tournament lock next to an offensive line Sharp ranks 27th. Stack him with Watson when you want the GPP passing game.

Josh Jacobs is Sharp’s RB10 and GPP/Cash. He led the 2025 tape at 15.8 FPavg (15.6 xFPavg) and 16.1 DraftKings points with a 12.4 floor, a 31.7 ceiling, and seven slate wins at $7,000. He is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List and cannot practice or play until reinstated, so he is not in Week 1 lineups.

MarShawn Lloyd is the likely Week 1 feature back. He has no scoring row in the 2025 FPavg table. Chris Brooks is on that table at 2.3 FPavg. Until Green Bay shows a clear split, Lloyd is GPP, with Brooks as a cheaper GPP dart rather than a cash lock.

Christian Watson is GPP/Cash. In 10 games he posted 13.2 FPavg (11.9 xFPavg), a 23.0 percent target share, 17.6 air yards per target, 13.5 DraftKings points, a 6.5 floor, a 24.9 ceiling, and three slate wins at $4,600. He scored in Cover 3 and Cover 0 on the coverage table. Doubs and Wicks are gone, so he is the returning volume WR.

Jayden Reed is GPP. His 2025 fantasy sample is five games and 9.7 FPavg on 22 targets. He is in the starting receiver core with Watson and Golden, but that is not cash volume.

Matthew Golden is GPP. He had 5.0 FPavg in 14 games, 44 targets, 13.2 air yards per target, a 5.0 DraftKings average, a 1.8 floor, an 11.3 ceiling, and zero slate wins at $4,700.

Tucker Kraft is Sharp’s TE5 and GPP/Cash. In eight games he posted 14.7 FPavg against 9.6 xFPavg, a 22.2 percent target share, 15.4 DraftKings points, a 9.9 floor, a 27.4 ceiling, and two slate wins at $4,700. He led the coverage table against Cover 1 (72 full-PPR points). He is a 2026 captain after returning from a torn ACL. Musgrave is on Reserve/PUP.

Jonnu Smith is a veteran underneath tight end and GPP. He signed August 29. His 2025 sample is Pittsburgh: 17 games, 54 targets, an 18.2 percent target share, 4.0 air yards per target, and −1.9 Rec EPA, with a 5.1 DraftKings average, a 1.6 floor, a 10.6 ceiling, and zero slate wins at $3,100. That is not Kraft’s TE5 cash profile. With Musgrave on PUP he can take complementary routes and two-tight-end snaps so Green Bay is not down to Kraft and Whyle alone.

Kaleb Johnson is a change-of-pace back and GPP. Green Bay traded for him from Pittsburgh on August 30. His 2025 Steelers sample is 10 games, 28 carries, −9.7 rushing EPA, and a 25.0 percent success rate, with a 0.9 DraftKings average, a 0.3 floor, a 2.2 ceiling, and zero slate wins at $4,000. With Jacobs on the Exempt List he is extra Week 1 committee depth behind Lloyd, not a featured-back cash play.

Tyrod Taylor is a veteran backup, not a weekly DFS starter. He signed after Malik Willis left. His 2025 Jets sample is six games, 134 attempts, −0.12 EPA per dropback, and −2.1% CPOE, with an 11.7 DraftKings average, a 4.1 floor, a 21.3 ceiling, one slate win, and a $4,300 salary. He helps Green Bay if Love misses time. Love remains the Cash quarterback.

Skyy Moore is a return specialist, not a featured WR. His 2025 San Francisco sample is 13 NFL+ games and seven targets (10.3 percent share, 15.3 air yards per target, +4.4 Rec EPA), with a 1.6 DraftKings average over nine salary weeks, a 0.1 floor, a 3.1 ceiling, and zero slate wins at $3,000. He is the projected kick and punt returner with Savion Williams on IR/designated to return. That is ST help and a name-only GPP dart, not Doubs-replacement volume.

Inside Scoop

Sharp assigns the Green Bay Packers a B- grade for Penalties & Discipline. Separately, his preseason outlook forecasts 10.5 wins, a second-place finish in the division, and the 16th-ranked schedule. Sharp’s betting snapshot lists Green Bay as an average 2.8-point favorite, including a 4.7-point home margin. Coming off a 9-7-1 season, he ranks the quarterback room 10th and the Offensive Line 27th. The Receivers rank 14th, Running Backs 16th, Front 7 13th, and Secondary 11th.

The current roster looks different from that preseason snapshot. Josh Jacobs is on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, so Green Bay opens with MarShawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, and Kaleb Johnson in the backfield. Micah Parsons is on Reserve/PUP and will miss at least four games, while Rashan Gary is now in Dallas. At tight end, Tucker Kraft is back after tearing his ACL, Luke Musgrave begins the season on Reserve/PUP, and Jonnu Smith provides veteran depth. Tyrod Taylor is Jordan Love’s backup after Malik Willis departed, and Trey Smack is the kicker following Brandon McManus’ release.

For sides and moneylines, Sharp’s preseason snapshot still presents Green Bay as an average 2.8-point favorite against a middle-of-the-pack schedule, but the opening weeks without Jacobs and Parsons create more volatility than those preseason expectations suggest. The 2025 Packers went 12-5 against the spread and 9-8 to the over while scoring 23.0 points per game, 16th in the NFL, and allowing 21.2, which ranked 11th. From a fantasy standpoint, Love, Christian Watson, and Kraft carry the strongest historical Cash-style profiles. Jacobs remains a GPP/Cash profile when reinstated; until then, Lloyd and Johnson offer more tournament-oriented backfield profiles, while Matthew Golden and Jayden Reed fit better as GPP receivers.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.