NFL 2026 PREVIEW: HOUSTON TEXANS

The Houston Texans enter the 2026 campaign looking to build on a dominant 12-5 season where they allowed just 17.4 points per game. Warren Sharp’s forecast projects 9.5 wins and a first-place division finish, though the path forward is steep with a Strength of Schedule ranked 27th on a scale where 1 is easiest and 32 is hardest. This difficult slate tests a roster defined by extreme contrasts in unit quality. The 2026 outlook highlights the Front 7 and Secondary as the team's strongest positional groups, ranking first overall in both categories. Conversely, the Offensive Line presents a significant vulnerability, sitting at Sharp rank 31 of 32. Balancing elite defensive potential against interior protection issues will define their ability to meet high expectations.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Braden Smith (RT), Wyatt Teller (G), Evan Brown (RG), Reed Blankenship (S), Logan Hall (IDL), Jadeveon Clowney (EDGE), Mario Edwards Jr. (IDL, re-signed), Foster Moreau (TE), Jake Hummel (LB), Kai Kroeger (P), Kayshon Boutte (WR) (via trade), and Nathan Thomas (OT) (via trade); David Montgomery (RB) (via trade).

Key Departures: Tytus Howard (RT) to the Browns, Joe Mixon (RB), Tim Settle (IDL) to the Commanders, Denico Autry (EDGE), Jimmie Ward (S), Derek Barnett (EDGE), Christian Kirk (WR) to the 49ers, Folorunso Fatukasi (IDL), Christian Harris (LB) to the Falcons, Nick Chubb (RB), Tommy Townsend (P) to the Titans, Braxton Berrios (WR), Dare Ogunbowale (RB), Kurt Hinish (IDL), Juice Scruggs (C) to the Lions, Damone Clark (LB) to the Lions, Myles Bryant (CB) to the Browns, Harrison Bryant (TE) to the Seahawks, Brandon Hill (S), and Jarrett Patterson (G/C) to the 49ers.

Unavailable / status: Jayden Higgins (WR — torn ACL; Reserve/Injured, out for 2026); Tank Dell (WR — Reserve/Injured, designated to return; unavailable for at least the first four games); Ja'Marcus Ingram (S — Reserve/Injured, designated to return; unavailable for at least four games); Dylan Horton (EDGE — torn Achilles; Reserve/Injured, out for 2026); K.C. Ossai (LB — Reserve/Injured; out for 2026); E.J. Speed (LB — torn quadriceps tendon; expected to miss the entire 2026 season); M.J. Stewart (S — Reserve/PUP; unavailable for at least the first four games); Braden Smith (OT — plantar fascia injury; expected to miss a few weeks.

The coaching core remains intact with Head Coach DeMeco Ryans entering his fourth season, Offensive Coordinator Nick Caley in his second, and Defensive Coordinator Matt Burke also in his fourth year, providing stability despite significant roster churn. The most glaring structural issue is the offensive line, which Sharp ranks 31st overall, a weakness exacerbated by the departure of right tackle Tytus Howard to the Browns and center Juice Scruggs to the Lions. To address this, the team added right tackle Braden Smith plus guards Wyatt Teller and Evan Brown, both signed in March free agency, aiming to shore up protection for a quarterback unit ranked 19th. On August 30 Houston also acquired tackle Nate Thomas from Dallas and traded G/C Jarrett Patterson to San Francisco, adding OL depth while Smith is expected to miss a few weeks with a plantar fascia injury. The backfield sees a major shift as well, with Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb leaving while David Montgomery arrives via trade, joining Woody Marks in a reshuffled backfield.

On defense, the front seven and secondary are rated as the team's strongest units, but they face notable losses in veteran leadership and depth. The departure of edge rushers Denico Autry and Derek Barnett, along with interior linemen Tim Settle and Folorunso Fatukasi, creates vacancies that re-signed IDL Mario Edwards Jr., Jadeveon Clowney, and Logan Hall must help fill. The secondary loses Jimmie Ward and Brandon Hill, prompting the acquisition of safety Reed Blankenship to help maintain coverage quality. Linebacker Christian Harris left for the Falcons, but the team added Jake Hummel to support the group. With a schedule ranked as the sixth-hardest in the league, the effectiveness of these personnel swaps will be critical for a team projected to finish first in its division with 9.5 forecast wins.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

The Texans addressed their most glaring roster deficiency by selecting Keylan Rutledge, a guard from Georgia Tech, with the 26th overall pick. Sharp notes that this selection targets immediate improvement in interior run blocking, a critical need given that the offensive line ranked 31st among all units. Rutledge is projected to compete for a starting role and help bolster the ground game between the tackles, an area where Houston aims to improve despite the departure of Joe Mixon in free agency. In the fourth round, the team added another interior lineman in Febechi Nwaiwu from Oklahoma, who provides depth and competition at guard alongside March free-agent signing Evan Brown and fellow FA add Wyatt Teller. This focus on the interior trench aligns with the team's strategic priority to fortify a Sharp-ranked 31st OL unit while supporting a rushing attack that must adapt to new personnel.

On the defensive side, Houston selected Kayden McDonald, a defensive tackle from Ohio State, in the second round to reinforce the front seven, which Sharp ranks as the team's strongest unit. McDonald brings specialized skills as a nose tackle capable of occupying multiple blockers, though his specific alignment may require adjustment in modern schemes that often favor versatile interior linemen over traditional nose tackles. The Texans continued to add depth in the middle rounds with Marlin Klein, a tight end from Michigan, taken in the second round, followed by linebacker Wade Woodaz from Clemson and safety Kamari Ramsey from USC in the fourth and fifth rounds respectively. The draft class concluded with selections of wide receiver Lewis Bond from Boston College in the sixth round and linebacker Aiden Fisher from Indiana in the seventh round. Bond was later waived on August 30.

Sharp Forecasts Houston Texans with 9.5 Wins

The case for staying under 9.5 wins hinges on the volatility of C.J. Stroud and an offense that previously benefited from unusually favorable field-goal outcomes. Across Houston's two playoff games, Stroud completed 51.9% of his passes for 462 yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions while taking six sacks. (Sharp charts 87 dropbacks in that sample; official attempts plus sacks equal 85.) This inefficiency mirrors the regular season, where Houston ranked 24th in yards per play, 28th in success rate, and 25th in EPA per play despite finishing 13th in points per game. The scoring output was heavily buoyed by what Sharp's analysis notes as league-best field goal luck — Houston converting 92.3% of attempts to finish 8.65 points over expectation, while opponents managed just 66.7%. With red-zone touchdown efficiency ranking 30th at 46.3%, any regression in defensive dominance or field-goal fortune could expose an offense that struggled to generate points inside the 20-yard line.

Conversely, the argument for the over rests on a defense that Sharp ranks as having the number one Front 7 and Secondary, units capable of carrying the team even if the offense sputters. Although the pass rush generated an elite pressure rate, it translated to only the eighth-best sack rate, suggesting room for improvement in finishing plays, especially after adding second-round pick Kayden McDonald and free agent safety Reed Blankenship. The offense aims to address its red-zone woes by acquiring David Montgomery via trade, a running back who tied for 16th among his position group with seven red-zone touchdowns last season despite sharing duties. While the schedule presents a significant challenge as the sixth-hardest in the league, the combination of an elite defense and targeted roster upgrades provides a pathway to surpass the win total, provided the offensive line does not drag down the unit further.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Sharp’s timing metrics identify the Houston Texans as the league’s most advantaged team regarding net rest edge, ranking first in that specific category. The underlying data shows a cumulative net gain of eight days across the season, placing them seventh overall in total rest disparity (a lower rank means more days of rest advantage relative to opponents). This advantage is distributed across seven labeled weeks where the team holds a positive rest edge, including a significant seven-day boost in Week 9 against the Chargers and smaller margins in Weeks 12, 15, and 17. The team also ranks tenth in general rest, sixth in avoiding short-week road games, and 24th in Sharp’s preparation rank.

The weekly breakdown reveals specific instances where scheduling works for or against the Texans’ recovery timeline. After an open bye in Week 8, the team enjoys its largest single-week advantage in Week 9, followed by a three-day edge in Week 12 against Baltimore. The schedule also shows a negative two-day rest edge for a Sunday Night Football trip to Pittsburgh in Week 13 and a negative one-day edge for Thursday Night Football games in Weeks 16 and 18. The team ranks fourth in games off road prime-time slots and sixth in negated bye impact.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: C.J. Stroud (8 INT), Dare Ogunbowale (1 FL), Nico Collins (1 FL), Davis Mills (1 INT), Tremon Smith (1 FL, special teams return). Takeaways: Jalen Pitre (4 INT), Derek Stingley Jr. (4 INT), Kamari Lassiter (4 INT), Calen Bullock (4 INT), Azeez Al-Shaair (2 INT, 1 FR), Will Anderson Jr. (2 FR)

The Houston Texans entered the 2026 cycle with a turnover profile that heavily favored their defense, having generated a net +17 margin in the prior season. The unit ranked third in the league for takeaways with 29 total events, driven by 19 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. This ball-hawking production was distributed across the secondary, as Jalen Pitre, Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, and Calen Bullock each recorded four interceptions. Azeez Al-Shaair contributed two interceptions and one fumble recovery, while Will Anderson Jr. added two fumble recoveries to the team’s total. Free-agency churn around the Front 7 and secondary (including Jimmie Ward and Christian Harris) still leaves ordinary regression risk for a high-volume takeaway rate, even though those two were not among the displayed 2025 takeaway leaders.

Houston committed 12 team giveaways in 2025 (#2): C.J. Stroud and Davis Mills combined for nine interceptions, while Dare Ogunbowale, Nico Collins, and returner Tremon Smith each lost one fumble — reconciling to the team total of three fumbles lost (first in the league). With the exit of Joe Mixon and the arrival of David Montgomery via trade, the Texans must ensure that new personnel maintains this disciplined approach to possession to support a projected nine-and-a-half win season.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: C.J. Stroud 189 yards; Davis Mills 60 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 26/669 ≈ 3.9% of shotgun plays; 5/407 ≈ 1.2% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures.

Sack leaders (defense): Danielle Hunter (15), Will Anderson Jr. (12), Derek Barnett (5), Denico Autry (3.5)

C.J. Stroud absorbed 189 yards in losses from sacks, while Davis Mills surrendered 60 yards to pressure behind the line. The offensive line allowed 31 total sacks, a figure that ranked ninth in the league. Twenty-six sacks occurred across 669 shotgun plays (about 3.9% of those formation plays), while five sacks occurred across 407 under-center plays (about 1.2%). These are shares of all formation plays — including runs — not conventional dropback sack rates.

On the defensive side, the unit recorded 47 sacks, finishing seventh in the league in total production. Danielle Hunter led the charge with 15 sacks, followed by Will Anderson Jr. with 12. Derek Barnett contributed five sacks before his departure in free agency. Houston recorded sacks across multiple coverage shells: 17 in Cover 1 (#4 in raw count), seven in Cover 4 (#1 in raw count), and six in Cover 6 (#2 in raw count). Those coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts and count ranks, not pressure rates or per-snap efficiency.

Return Touchdowns

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 2 (#28) — Parker Washington (punt return) and Ray Davis (kickoff return).

Punt returns 34 for 360 yards; kickoff returns 54 for 1407 yards.

The Houston Texans did not score any touchdowns on punt or kickoff returns during the previous season, a result that placed them in the middle of the league pack at rank 13 for this specific metric. While the unit failed to find the end zone, they were active in the return game, logging 34 punt returns for 360 yards and handling 54 kickoff returns for 1,407 yards.

Defensively, the coverage units allowed two return touchdowns, which ranked as the 28th worst mark in the NFL. The blemishes on the record came from a punt return touchdown by Parker Washington and a kickoff return touchdown by Ray Davis. Allowing these two scores highlights areas where containment broke down, as the team surrendered significant points directly from special teams plays rather than forcing turnovers or stops.

Penalties

Offense: 65 penalties for 492 yards (#19). Most common: Offensive Holding (21), False Start (14), Delay of Game (5). Most flags in Shotgun (22), Under Center (18). Most flagged players: Aireontae Ersery (8), Dalton Schultz (5), Blake Fisher (5).

Defense: 53 penalties for 497 yards (#25), including four special-teams punt-return holdings. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Defensive Offside (7), Unnecessary Roughness (6). Most flags on Cover 3 (13), Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (6). Most flagged players: Derek Stingley Jr. (7), Will Anderson Jr. (6), Kamari Lassiter (4).

The Houston Texans' offense was flagged 65 times for 492 yards, ranking 19th in the league. Offensive Holding accounted for 21 of those infractions, while False Start penalties occurred 14 times and Delay of Game calls added another five. Twenty-two flags occurred on shotgun plays, compared with 18 on under-center plays. Among individual players, Aireontae Ersery led the team with eight penalties, while Dalton Schultz and Blake Fisher each were called for five infractions.

The defense logged 53 penalties for 497 yards, ranking 25th. Defensive Pass Interference was the most frequent penalty with nine occurrences, followed by seven Defensive Offside calls and six for Unnecessary Roughness. Thirteen flags occurred on Cover 3 plays, 11 on Cover 1 and six on Cover 2. Derek Stingley Jr. was the most penalized defender with seven flags, Will Anderson Jr. followed with six, and Kamari Lassiter recorded four.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 823 plays, 40.8% success, 0.01 EPA/play (#19). Most efficient on early downs: Nico Collins (89 plays, 0.46 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 166 plays, 32.5% success, -0.11 EPA/play (#27). Most efficient in the red zone: Jayden Higgins (9 plays, 0.59 EPA/play).

The Houston Texans generated moderate efficiency on early downs, running 823 plays with a 40.8% success rate and an EPA per play of 0.01, which ranked 19th. Nico Collins stood out as the most efficient option in these situations, recording 0.46 EPA per play across 89 early-down plays.

Red zone execution proved to be a significant weakness, as the team managed only a 32.5% success rate over 166 plays, resulting in a -0.11 EPA per play that ranked 27th. Despite the unit's overall struggles near the goal line, Jayden Higgins was highly effective when involved, posting 0.59 EPA per play on his nine red zone plays. Improving this late-field efficiency will be critical for the Texans to capitalize on drives and support their projected division-leading status.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 0.1 (#11); they passed 56.2% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): C.J. Stroud (45.5% success on 446 pass plays), Davis Mills (39.6% success on 169 pass plays).

On rushes (qualifying 2025 PBP rush plays — not official NFL attempt totals): Woody Marks (36.2% success on 196 qualifying PBP rush plays), Nick Chubb (34.4% success on 122 qualifying PBP rush plays), Jawhar Jordan (25.6% success on 43 qualifying PBP rush plays).

The Houston Texans operated with a balanced offensive approach in 2025, throwing the ball on 57.1% of their plays to rank 16th in pass rate while rushing on the remaining 42.9% of plays. This distribution resulted in 615 total pass plays and 463 rush plays, placing them in the middle of the pack for volume in both categories. Efficiency was modest across the board, as the team averaged 6.03 yards per pass play and just 4.02 yards per rush. Success rates reflected these average gains, with the passing game converting at a 43.9% clip and Houston's rush plays posting a 37.8% success rate, which ranked 30th in the league.

When facing neutral downs, the offense showed a slight tendency to air it out, posting a pass rate over expected (PROE) of 0.1 that ranked 11th highest. On those specific downs, they chose to pass 56.2% of the time. C.J. Stroud led the passing efficiency metrics with a 45.5% success rate on his 446 pass plays, while Davis Mills recorded a 39.6% success rate on 169 such plays. In the ground game (qualifying 2025 PBP rush plays — not NFL+ Success %), Woody Marks was the most effective runner among qualifiers at a 36.2% success rate on 196 plays. Nick Chubb followed at 34.4% on 122 plays, with Jawhar Jordan at 25.6% on 43. (NFL+ rushing Success % later lists Marks at 35.2% — a different denominator.)

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

The Houston Texans offense generated 56 explosive plays of 20 or more yards during the 2025 season, ranking 17th in raw explosive-play count while accumulating 1,723 total explosive yards to place 15th. This production was heavily skewed toward the passing game, which accounted for 48 of those big plays and 1,497 yards, compared to just eight rushing explosives that gained 226 yards. Nico Collins led the unit with 18 explosive receptions, providing a significant portion of the downfield threat, while Xavier Hutchinson contributed seven such plays and Jaylin Noel added six. The largest raw explosive count came against Cover 3 (17), followed by Cover 1 (12) and Cover 6 (7).

On the defensive side, the Texans allowed 55 explosive plays, which ranked 12th fewest in the NFL, while surrendering 1,681 explosive yards to place 13th. Similar to their offensive profile, the defense gave up 47 explosive passes for 1,450 yards and eight explosive runs for 231 yards. Opposing receivers Alec Pierce, Josh Downs, and Puka Nacua each recorded three explosive plays against the Houston secondary. The largest raw explosive count allowed occurred in Cover 3 (20), followed by Cover 1 (13) and Cover 4 (6).

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

The Houston Texans built their 2025 offensive identity around the 11 personnel package (one running back, one tight end, three wide receivers) on 817 plays at 1.40 full PPR fantasy points per play, well ahead of heavier sets. Primary contributors in that high-volume grouping included Woody Marks, Dalton Schultz, Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jayden Higgins. Twelve personnel (137 plays) produced 0.80 FP/play; 21 personnel appeared only 21 times at 0.48 FP/play.

Shotgun was Houston's highest-producing listed formation at 1.53 FP/play across 669 plays (62.2% share), while under-center sets produced 0.87 FP/play on 407 plays. Run-pass options were a minor component at 19 plays (1.8% share, 0.63 FP/play) and are counted inside the shotgun/under-center formation totals rather than as a separate base. Eleven personnel was the dominant personnel grouping; shotgun was the top formation.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #17; play-action rank #16 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

On team-level 2025 PBP + FTN charting (all offensive plays), the Texans used pre-snap motion on 54.0% of plays (582 plays, rank 17) with a 42.1% success rate, averaging 1.32 full PPR points per play with motion versus 1.22 without. Play action appeared on 13.7% of plays (148 plays, rank 16) but posted a 50.7% success rate and 2.05 FP/play versus 1.15 without play action.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

C.J. Stroud remains the clear starter after appearing in 14 games during the 2025 season, where he posted a career-high 64.5% completion rate alongside a 4.5% touchdown rate and a 1.9% interception rate. Despite those efficiency markers, his yardage output dipped to 217.2 per game, the lowest figure of his career. Davis Mills served as the primary backup in six contests with a lower fantasy floor and ceiling. Sharp ranks the 2026 quarterback unit #19 and the reworked 2026 offensive line 31st of 32 — a personnel outlook for this season, not a causal explanation of 2025 results.

On Stroud's NFL+ dropbacks (a different scope than the team PBP/FTN motion table above), Houston used motion on 49.9% of his dropbacks and play action on 24.8% of those dropbacks. When the offense deployed these tactics, Stroud’s measured efficiency was materially higher: he averaged 8.5 yards per attempt and 13.1 yards per completion on play action, while motion plays yielded 7.8 yards per attempt and 11.7 yards per completion. In contrast, standard drops without motion or fake handoffs resulted in significantly diminished returns, with Stroud averaging just 6.0 yards per attempt and 9.6 yards per completion.

Looking toward 2026, Sharp ranks the reworked OL 31st. Free-agent guards Wyatt Teller and Evan Brown plus rookies Keylan Rutledge and Febechi Nwaiwu aim to address interior protection. Houston added another tackle option on August 30 by acquiring Nate Thomas from Dallas, with Braden Smith expected to miss a few weeks on a plantar fascia injury. With Stroud entering the final two years of his rookie contract, the pressure is on the revamped front five to provide better protection and create cleaner pockets. Sharp’s chapter success rate for Stroud was 42.3% (#24) — a different definition than the 45.5% success rate on 446 qualifying PBP pass plays cited earlier. The quarterback room retains its core leadership, but the overall ceiling of the passing game remains tied to how effectively the new blockers can protect Stroud.

Top two QBs. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Win = weeks in the top N at that DK position on the salary slate (QB 5 / RB·WR 12 / TE 6). DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The Houston Texans enter 2026 with a Sharp receiving rank of #11. In 2025, Nico Collins led with 120 targets and a 25.3% NFL+ TGT% (+31.6 Rec EPA, 13.0 AYavg). Dalton Schultz posted 106 targets and a 21.8% NFL+ TGT% with a team-high +33.0 Rec EPA. Jayden Higgins (68 targets, 18.7% NFL+ TGT%) and Xavier Hutchinson (57 targets) rounded out the next tier; Christian Kirk (52 targets, -22.9 Rec EPA), Braxton Berrios, and Harrison Bryant have since departed.

Red-zone hierarchy in 2025: Collins 19 RZ targets (24.1% of the RZ sample), Schultz 12 (2.18 FP per RZ opportunity), Higgins 9 (3.78 FP per RZ target). Early-down targets: Collins 87, Schultz 73, Higgins 49.

Looking ahead to 2026, the active WR room is Nico Collins, Kayshon Boutte (acquired August 25), Jaylin Noel, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jared Wayne. Tank Dell is on Reserve/Injured designated to return — unavailable for at least the first four games and a later-season return candidate only. Higgins (torn ACL) is Reserve/Injured and out for 2026. Foster Moreau (FA) and drafted TE Marlin Klein add TE depth behind Schultz; sixth-round WR Lewis Bond was waived August 30. With Higgins out for the year and Dell unavailable early, Boutte, Noel, Hutchinson, and Wayne have the immediate opportunity behind Collins.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every Houston target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club, those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down target tables below are the preferred hierarchy for this club.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for Houston-only volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The 2025 rushing attack operated with significant constraints, as Sharp ranks the running back unit at #27 and the offensive line at #31 for the 2026 personnel outlook. Woody Marks led the backfield in volume, carrying the ball 196 times over 16 games, while Nick Chubb added 122 attempts across 15 appearances. NFL+ rushing Success % lists Marks at 35.2% and Chubb at 34.4%, with Chubb at +0.5 RYOE/Att. Separately, qualifying 2025 PBP rush-play success was Marks 36.2% (196 plays) and Chubb 34.4% (122 plays). The ground game struggled to generate consistent explosive plays or high-value outcomes, as evidenced by Marks’ negative total rush EPA of -32.2 and Chubb’s -16.9.

Red-zone usage highlighted the hierarchy: Marks had 33 RZ rushes and eight RZ targets (41 RZ opps) for five RZ TDs; Chubb 13/2/15 for one; Ogunbowale 6/3/9 for one; Jordan five RZ rushes and zero RZ TDs.

RZ TD = combined rushing and receiving touchdowns on red-zone opportunities — not rushing TDs alone.

Looking toward 2026, Mixon, Chubb, and Ogunbowale are gone; David Montgomery arrives via trade. Wyatt Teller and Evan Brown (FA) plus rookies Keylan Rutledge (pick 26) and Febechi Nwaiwu (pick 106) are the trench bets behind Marks and Montgomery.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Houston Texans generated 23.8 points per game during the 2025 regular season, a scoring output that ranked 13th in the league. When evaluating fantasy production through a full PPR lens rather than real-world scoring, the offense averaged 80.9 fantasy points per game, which placed them 19th overall. This distinction highlights how real-world efficiency does not always translate directly to high-volume fantasy scoring, as the team’s actual point total was significantly stronger relative to the league than their fantasy point accumulation suggested.

Defensively, the unit was elite in preventing both real and fantasy scoring, allowing just 17.4 points per game to rank second best in the NFL. In terms of fantasy defense against opposing skill players, they surrendered 69.9 fantasy points per game, good for the third-best mark in the league. That dominant 2025 production now carries into a 2026 schedule that Sharp ranks 27th on his scale, indicating a harder slate of matchups ahead for the offense and defense.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Houston Texans displayed a distinct scoring rhythm in 2025, finishing strong while struggling to generate offense immediately after halftime. They ranked fifth in the league for average points scored in the fourth quarter at 8.1 and eleventh in the second quarter with 7.5 points per game. This late-game potency translated well to fantasy production, as the unit posted the sixth-best full PPR average in the second quarter at 26.3 points. However, the third quarter proved to be a significant offensive lull, with the team managing only 3.4 real points per game, which ranked twenty-sixth, and 13.5 fantasy points, placing them twenty-eighth in that metric.

Defensively, the Texans were elite early: 3.5 points allowed in Q1 (#3) and 4.6 in Q2 (#2). Opponent fantasy averages ranked fourth-lowest in Q1 (#4 FPavg allowed) and third-lowest in Q2 (#3). Houston's defense dipped sharply in Q3 (5.8 points allowed, #24; 20.7 FPavg allowed, #24) before rebounding in Q4 (3.5 points allowed, #2; 17.1 FPavg allowed, #4).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's Defensive Rank: Front 7 #1, Secondary #1.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players may include production from a prior club unless a single-club total is available.

Azeez Al-Shaair led the club with 103 tackles; Danielle Hunter 15.0 sacks, Will Anderson Jr. 12.0 sacks, Derek Barnett 5.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Azeez Al-Shaair: 1 TFL, 2 INT, 9 PD; Henry To'oTo'o: 9 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 4 PD; Kamari Lassiter: 7 TFL, 4 INT, 17 PD; Jalen Pitre: 3 TFL, 4 INT, 12 PD; Calen Bullock: 4 INT, 10 PD; E.J. Speed: 3 TFL, 1 PD.

Sharp projects the Houston Texans to field the league’s top-ranked Front 7 and Secondary, a foundation built on returning stars and strategic reinforcements. Azeez Al-Shaair anchors the linebacker corps after leading the team with 103 combined tackles, while also contributing two interceptions and nine pass deflections. The pass rush remains formidable with Danielle Hunter recording 15.0 sacks and Will Anderson Jr. adding 12.0, though the unit must replace departed edge rushers Denico Autry and Derek Barnett. Mario Edwards Jr. re-signed August 2 and remains in the IDL mix with Logan Hall and draft pick Kayden McDonald. Jadeveon Clowney (signed August 4) bolsters the edge group alongside Anderson and Hunter, with drafted linebackers Wade Woodaz and Aiden Fisher adding Front 7 depth. E.J. Speed is expected to miss the 2026 season with a torn quadriceps tendon, increasing the importance of Houston's remaining linebacker depth behind Al-Shaair and To'oTo'o.

The secondary benefits from high-level production by Kamari Lassiter, who posted seven tackles for loss, four interceptions, and 17 pass deflections, as well as Jalen Pitre, who recorded three tackles for loss, four interceptions, and 12 pass deflections. Safety Calen Bullock added four interceptions and 10 pass deflections, helping to offset the departure of Jimmie Ward and Brandon Hill. Reed Blankenship arrives as a new safety addition to help maintain depth, while Henry To'oTo'o provides versatile support with nine tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, and four pass deflections. Despite losing Christian Harris and Damone Clark at linebacker, the combination of elite returning talent and targeted additions aims to sustain the unit's top-tier status.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Ka'imi Fairbairn: 48/52 FG, 30/30 PAT.

Tommy Townsend led with 72 punts (30 inside the 20) in 2025; he is a 2026 departure. Kai Kroeger (acquired March 11) is the current rostered punter.

Kickoff returner Jaylin Noel: 29 returns for 799 yards.

Punt returner Jaylin Noel: 31 returns for 335 yards.

Special teams tackler Jake Hansen: 19 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

2025 recap: Ka’imi Fairbairn converted 48 of 52 field goals (92.3%) and all 30 PATs, with nine makes from 50+ and a long of 57. Tommy Townsend handled punting with 72 boots (30 inside the 20, zero blocks). Jaylin Noel returned 29 kickoffs for 799 yards and 31 punts for 335 yards; Jake Hansen led coverage with 19 combined ST tackles.

2026 outlook: Townsend is a Key Departure (Titans). Houston acquired P Kai Kroeger from New Orleans on March 11 — he is the current rostered punter for 2026. Fairbairn and Noel remain the kicking/return anchors to watch unless camp depth charts shift.

Penalty Analysis

Sharp's analysis notes that Houston’s offense generated significant field position advantages through opponent infractions — top beneficiary of defensive holding calls and second in drawing illegal contact — while also ranking among the league’s top five in automatic first downs via penalty. Special teams finished as a bottom-five unit in penalties committed. That disparity highlights an Offense that capitalized on opponent flags while the kicking game gave yardage back.

Hacking DFS/nflverse assigns 65 of Houston's 118 team penalties to the offense (55%). Sharp uses a separate penalty methodology and reports roughly 53%, so the figures should not be treated as identical scopes. Houston also ranked poorly for intentional grounding, illegal shifts, and illegal use of hands on Sharp's penalty boards, with early-game discipline (most first-quarter penalties per game) a watch item.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 65 penalties for 492 yards (#19). Most common: Offensive Holding (21), False Start (14), Delay of Game (5). Most flags in Shotgun (22), Under Center (18). Most flagged players: Aireontae Ersery (8), Dalton Schultz (5), Blake Fisher (5).

Defense: 53 penalties for 497 yards (#25), including four special-teams punt-return holdings. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Defensive Offside (7), Unnecessary Roughness (6). Most flags on Cover 3 (13), Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (6). Most flagged players: Derek Stingley Jr. (7), Will Anderson Jr. (6), Kamari Lassiter (4).

The Houston Texans offense was flagged 65 times for 492 yards, ranking 19th in the league. Offensive holding was the most frequent infraction with 21 calls, followed by 14 false starts and five delay of game penalties. Twenty-two flags occurred on shotgun plays, compared with 18 on under-center plays. Among individual players, Aireontae Ersery led the team with eight penalties, while Dalton Schultz and Blake Fisher each drew five flags.

The defense logged 53 penalties for 497 yards, ranking 25th. Defensive pass interference was the most common penalty with nine instances, while defensive offside and unnecessary roughness accounted for seven and six flags respectively. Thirteen flags occurred on Cover 3 plays, 11 on Cover 1 and six on Cover 2. Derek Stingley Jr. was the most penalized defender with seven flags, Will Anderson Jr. had six, and Kamari Lassiter recorded four.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp Fantasy Ranks: David Montgomery RB20.

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the roster call — who to target, who to fade, and who inherits work from free agency and the draft.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Nico Collins (14.9 FPavg), C.J. Stroud (14.9 FPavg), Davis Mills (11.2 FPavg), Dalton Schultz (10.5 FPavg), Woody Marks (9.1 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Houston faced Cover 3 on 164 charted plays, with Nico Collins accounting for a team-high 72 cumulative full-PPR points. Against Cover 1 (132 charted plays), Collins likewise led Houston with 57 cumulative points. He also ranked among the top scorers versus Cover 4 (27) and Cover 6 (15).

Dalton Schultz led Cover 2 scoring with 55 cumulative points (Higgins was second at 32) and led Cover 9 with 8. Higgins led Cover 4 with 30 points. Cover 0 and 2 Man rows are likewise raw FP totals: Kirk and Hutchinson tied at 8 vs Cover 0; Collins led Houston against 2 Man with 13 cumulative FP, while the offense as a whole averaged 1.04 FP/play across 42 charted 2-Man plays.

Skill adds: David Montgomery (RB) (via trade), Kayshon Boutte (WR) (via trade), and Foster Moreau (TE).

Skill losses: Joe Mixon (RB), Christian Kirk (WR) to the 49ers, Nick Chubb (RB), Braxton Berrios (WR), Dare Ogunbowale (RB), and Harrison Bryant (TE) to the Seahawks.

Skill draft picks: Marlin Klein (TE, Rd 2, Michigan) and Lewis Bond (WR, Rd 6 — waived August 30).

Nico Collins stands out as the primary fantasy target at 14.9 full PPR FP/G (15.8 xFP/G). C.J. Stroud also averaged 14.9 against 17.1 xFP/G; Davis Mills 11.2 vs 14.9; Schultz 10.5 vs 10.9.

2026 Active WR Room: Nico Collins, Kayshon Boutte, Jaylin Noel, Xavier Hutchinson, and Jared Wayne. Dell is Reserve/Injured designated to return — later-season return candidate only. Higgins (torn ACL; 7.6 FP/G in 2025) is Reserve/Injured and out for 2026. Moreau (FA) and Klein (Rd 2) add TE depth after Kirk and Harrison Bryant left; Bond was waived August 30. Early-season opportunity concentrates more on Boutte, Noel, Hutchinson, and Wayne behind Collins.

Marks realized 9.1 FP/G against 11.3 xFP/G, leaving roughly 2.2 points per game of expected production unrealized — that gap does not by itself prove underutilization or goal-line inefficiency. Montgomery joins Marks and British Brooks in Houston's initial 53-man backfield after Mixon, Chubb, and Ogunbowale departed.

Who to target

Sharp's player-target section highlights David Montgomery as a fit for Houston's rush identity. Sharp notes Houston struggled in 2025 with a 27th-ranked rate of runs failing to gain yardage and a 30th-ranked rate of plays resulting in a first down or touchdown, while leaning heavily on man/gap concepts (second in such run rates under Nick Caley). Montgomery arrives via trade. Sharp's analysis further notes his late-2025 Lions role shrank to 32.6% of snaps over the final eight games, yet he still averaged 4.5 yards per rush with a 39.9% success rate, and on man/gap runs posted a 50% success rate while leading backs in EPA per rush in that sample.

The addition of Montgomery comes as Woody Marks looks to build on the volume he secured midseason, having handled 63.1% of backfield touches over the final eight games of 2025. Despite controlling the majority of the workload during that stretch, Marks averaged just 63.1 yards per game, indicating that volume alone did not translate to high-end production for the unit. Montgomery’s arrival means Marks must compete for early-down work, though Montgomery’s historical proficiency in the very concepts Houston employs most frequently gives him a clear path to touches. This move aims to stabilize a running game that was previously a liability, offering fantasy managers a potentially reliable RB2 option who benefits from a scheme tailored to his strengths rather than relying solely on raw athletic dominance.

Inside Scoop

Sharp assigns the Houston Texans a B+ grade for Penalties & Discipline, giving them a strong mark in that area entering 2026. Separately, Sharp projects 9.5 wins and a first-place finish in the AFC South after Houston went 12-5 the previous season. The defense remains the roster’s clearest strength, with both the Front 7 and Secondary ranking first in the league, while the Offensive Line sits near the opposite end of the spectrum at No. 31.

Houston has spent the offseason trying to repair that weakness. Braden Smith, Wyatt Teller, Evan Brown, Nate Thomas, the Rutledge/Nwaiwu draft class, and Montgomery all factor into a rebuilt offensive-line group that will be central to the offense’s ceiling. The path back to the division title still runs through C.J. Stroud, especially with Sharp assigning Houston one of the league’s more difficult schedules.

Defensively, Houston still has the personnel to keep games manageable, with Clowney, Mario Edwards Jr., Hall, and McDonald anchoring the front. On offense, Nico Collins leads an active receiving group that also includes Boutte, Noel, Hutchinson, and Wayne as Houston works around the absences of Dell and Higgins. Whether the Texans can meet Sharp’s 9.5-win forecast will depend heavily on whether the rebuilt offensive line gives Stroud enough protection to take advantage of that receiving talent.

---

Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.