NFL 2026 PREVIEW: INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Indianapolis is 0-2 after an 8-9 season that scored 27.4 points per game (8th) and allowed 24.2 (21st), going 7-10 against the spread and 9-8 to the over. Baltimore won 41-23 and Kansas City needed overtime to win 33-30 in Week 2. Warren Sharp still has the Colts at 7.5 wins and third in the AFC South, with the ninth-easiest schedule, a 1.1 average line, minus-0.8 at home and 2.8 on the road, six games as favorites and 11 as underdogs.

Shane Steichen is in year four with Daniel Jones back from last year's Week 14 Achilles tear, and Jonathan Taylor has 190 rushing yards and four touchdowns through two weeks as the engine of a backfield Sharp ranks fourth. The other side of the ball is the tension: 74 points and 1,029 yards allowed against a front seven Sharp ranks 25th and a secondary he ranks 8th. Pierce is headed to IR and Clemons is already there heading into a home AFC South game against Houston on Sunday.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Arden Key (EDGE), Micheal Clemons (EDGE), Akeem Davis-Gaither (LB), Cam Taylor-Britt (CB), Keenan Allen (WR), and Darius Slayton (WR).

Key Departures: Kwity Paye (EDGE) to the Raiders, Braden Smith (RT) to the Texans, Michael Pittman (WR) to the Steelers, Kenny Moore (CB), Zaire Franklin (LB) to the Packers, Nick Cross (S) to the Commanders, Tyquan Lewis (EDGE), Neville Gallimore (IDL) to the Bears, Samson Ebukam (EDGE) to the Falcons, Danny Pinter (C) to the Ravens, Germaine Pratt (LB), Eric Johnson (IDL) to the Vikings, Rodney Thomas (CB) to the Seahawks, Chris Wormley (IDL), George Odum (S), Philip Rivers (QB), Chris Lammons (CB), Salvon Ahmed (RB), Segun Olubi (LB) to the Raiders, Tyler Goodson (RB) to the Falcons, Jacob Phillips (LB), Buddy Johnson (LB), D.J. Montgomery (WR), John Bullock (LB) to the Buccaneers, Mike Hilton (CB), and Ameer Abdullah (RB) to the Jaguars.

Shane Steichen and Jim Bob Cooter enter a fourth season built around Jonathan Taylor and Daniel Jones, now without Michael Pittman after the trade to Pittsburgh. Braden Smith left for Houston and Danny Pinter for Baltimore, so the right side of the line is the 2026 construction project in front of an offensive line Sharp ranks 11th. Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, and Keenan Allen are the receivers with Pierce headed to IR.

Lou Anarumo's second season is a rebuild at all three levels. Kwity Paye left for the Raiders, and Indianapolis signed Arden Key and Akeem Davis-Gaither — who played for Anarumo in Cincinnati — after trading Zaire Franklin to Green Bay. Clemons is on IR. Davis-Gaither is the listed middle linebacker, with Jaylon Carlies on the weak side and CJ Allen behind Davis-Gaither. Indianapolis acquired Sauce Gardner from the Jets on November 4 for two first-round picks and Adonai Mitchell, and Gardner played four Colts games before a calf injury while Charvarius Ward was limited to seven games by concussions. Camryn Bynum and AJ Haulcy are the listed safeties on a secondary Sharp ranks 8th and a front seven he ranks 25th.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Indianapolis directed its early draft capital straight toward the defensive vacancies created by an offseason roster reset. With middle linebacker Zaire Franklin traded to the Packers, the front office used the 53rd overall pick on Georgia linebacker CJ Allen. Allen wore the green defensive communication dot at Georgia, while Akeem Davis-Gaither is the listed starting middle linebacker and Camryn Bynum wore the defensive green dot in Week 1. In the third round at pick 78, the Colts selected LSU safety A.J. Haulcy, who is already listed as the starting strong safety after Nick Cross left for the Commanders and George Odum departed.

The remainder of the draft focused on trench depth and developmental competition across Day 3. Indianapolis opened the fourth round by drafting Kentucky guard Jalen Farmer at pick 113, followed by Oregon linebacker Bryce Boettcher at pick 135 to bolster second-level numbers after seeing Franklin, Segun Olubi, and John Bullock depart via trades and free agency. The defensive front received developmental pass-rushing depth on Day 3 with Florida edge George Gumbs Jr. in the fifth round (pick 156) and Ohio State edge Caden Curry in the sixth round (pick 214), reinforcing a defensive end stable adjusting to the departures of Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam, and Tyquan Lewis. The Colts concluded their class in the seventh round by selecting Kentucky running back Seth McGowan at pick 237 and Oklahoma wide receiver Deion Burks at pick 254.

Sharp Forecasts Indianapolis Colts with 7.5 Wins

Over Case: Warren Sharp forecasts the Indianapolis Colts at 7.5 wins and third in the AFC South after an 8-9 campaign. They are 0-2, so the remaining schedule has to do more of the work than that number assumed. Sharp ranked the slate ninth-easiest, with a minus-0.8 home line and six games as favorite. The offense is still built around a backfield he ranks fourth, and Taylor has 190 rushing yards and four touchdowns through two games.

Under Case: The under is the defense at 0-2. Indianapolis has allowed 74 points, lost 41-23 to Baltimore, and needed overtime to stay within three of Kansas City. Sharp ranks the front seven 25th after Kwity Paye left for the Raiders and Zaire Franklin was traded to Green Bay, Micheal Clemons is on IR, and Kenny Moore and Nick Cross are gone from the secondary. He had the Colts as underdogs in 11 games with a 2.8 average road line. From 0-2 they need eight wins in the last 15 games to go over 7.5.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -6 days.

Warren Sharp’s rest calendar leaves the Indianapolis Colts at a clear cumulative deficit, finishing with minus-six net rest days versus their opponents. That margin ranks 24th in the league for net rest edge. Across the full slate, six weeks carry a non-zero rest differential. Sharp slots the Colts 10th in rest rank and 13th in prep rank, while placing them 15th in both negated byes and games off road Sunday Night or Monday Night Football. Their short-week road games rank matches the season-long net standing at 24th.

A closer look at Sharp's week-by-week rest edges shows how those deficits sit across the first half. The first two spots are already spent: neutral rest against Baltimore and a plus-one rest edge at Kansas City. Houston is next on September 27 on a neutral setup, then a Week 4 international road game against the Washington Commanders. After that the rest margins tilt against them: a minus-three-day hole at Pittsburgh in Week 5, a neutral home date with Tennessee in Week 6, then back-to-back minus-seven-day deficits at Minnesota in Week 7 and Jacksonville in Week 8 before Dallas comes to Lucas Oil on level rest.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Daniel Jones (8 INT, 3 FL), Riley Leonard (3 INT, 2 FL), Philip Rivers (3 INT), Adonai Mitchell (1 FL), Jonathan Taylor (1 FL), Ameer Abdullah (1 FL, special teams return). Takeaways: Camryn Bynum (4 INT, 1 FR), Laiatu Latu (3 INT), Germaine Pratt (1 INT, 2 FR), Mekhi Blackmon (2 INT), Xavien Howard (1 FR), Kenny Moore II (1 INT)

Ball security left Indianapolis at minus-two on the turnover margin last season. The offense surrendered 23 giveaways, ranking 21st, and 14 of those were interceptions (24th). Daniel Jones logged eight picks and three fumbles lost, Riley Leonard added three interceptions and two fumbles lost, and Philip Rivers threw three interceptions. The nine fumbles lost ranked 20th: Jonathan Taylor and Adonai Mitchell each lost one from scrimmage, and Ameer Abdullah lost one on a special teams return. Jones's 2025 giveaways are still the sample sitting behind him.

The defense generated 21 takeaways, tying for 10th, with 14 interceptions (10th) and seven fumble recoveries (16th). Camryn Bynum had four interceptions and a fumble recovery, Laiatu Latu had three interceptions, and Mekhi Blackmon had two interceptions before he was waived at the end of August. Kenny Moore II and Germaine Pratt are gone; Pratt had an interception and two fumble recoveries. Bynum and Latu are still on the roster.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Daniel Jones 158 yards; Philip Rivers 37 yards; Riley Leonard 17 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 26/697 ≈ 3.7% of shotgun plays; 2/274 ≈ 0.7% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Laiatu Latu (8.5), Kwity Paye (4), Adetomiwa Adebawore (4), DeForest Buckner (4)

Indianapolis absorbed 29 sacks last season, 7th-fewest taken, for 212 lost yards. Daniel Jones accounted for 158 of those yards. Twenty-six of the 29 came from shotgun (3.7% of 697 shotgun plays) against two under center and one from pistol. Sharp ranks the 2026 offensive line 11th, with the right side now open after Braden Smith left.

The defense generated 39 sacks, 15th in the league, with Laiatu Latu leading at 8.5 and Kwity Paye, Adetomiwa Adebawore, and DeForest Buckner each recording 4. Four-man rushes produced 23 of those sacks, and Cover 3 (10), Cover 1 (9), and Cover 2 (8) were the most common finishing looks. Paye is gone, so Latu, Adebawore, and Buckner are still the sack producers on the roster.

Return Touchdowns

Kickoff returner Anthony Gould: 25 returns for 647 yards.

Punt returner Anthony Gould: 13 returns for 131 yards.

Punt returns 22 for 201 yards; kickoff returns 67 for 1927 yards.

Indianapolis scored zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns, tied for 13th, and allowed none, matching the league's top mark. Anthony Gould handled 25 of 67 kickoff returns for 647 yards and 13 of 22 punt returns for 131 yards. The club piled up 1,927 kickoff return yards and 201 punt return yards without a score. Gould is the 2025 sample. There was no return score.

Penalties

Offense: 56 penalties for 442 yards (#10). Most common: Offensive Holding (20), False Start (11), Delay of Game (8). Most flags in Shotgun (21), Under Center (7), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Bernhard Raimann (7), Matt Goncalves (5), Braden Smith (5).

Defense: 46 penalties for 416 yards (#14), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Defensive Holding (7), Unnecessary Roughness (6). Most flags on Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (4). Most flagged players: Mekhi Blackmon (5), Kenny Moore II (4), Zaire Franklin (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Indianapolis maintained steady procedural discipline across the board in 2025, getting assessed 102 total penalties for 858 yards to rank 12th in the league on a scale where first represents the fewest flags. The offense accounted for 56 infractions and 442 yards, the 10th-fewest flags in football. Offensive holding led the club at 20, ahead of 11 false starts and eight delay-of-game calls. The formation cluster was shotgun, 21 flags, ahead of seven under center and one from pistol.

On the other side of the ball, defensive penalties including special-teams holdings accounted for 46 accepted flags and 416 yards, which ranked 14th overall. Defensive pass interference (9), defensive holding (7), and unnecessary roughness (6) were the common flags. Cover 1 drew 15 of them, ahead of Cover 3 (5) and Cover 2 (4). Individual flag burdens remained reasonably distributed across the unit rather than concentrated on a single rogue defender. Arden Key is the signed edge add still in the rotation. Micheal Clemons is on IR.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 784 plays, 46.2% success, 0.05 EPA/play (#9). Most efficient on early downs: Alec Pierce (65 plays, 0.55 EPA/play), Daniel Jones (22 plays, 0.25 EPA/play), Tyler Warren (88 plays, 0.22 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 194 plays, 45.4% success, 0.16 EPA/play (#2). Most efficient in the red zone: Alec Pierce (9 plays, 0.71 EPA/play), Josh Downs (15 plays, 0.61 EPA/play), Michael Pittman (18 plays, 0.32 EPA/play).

Alec Pierce led early downs at 0.55 EPA per play on 65 plays, Tyler Warren had 88 plays at 0.22, and Daniel Jones had 22 plays at 0.25. Indianapolis ranked ninth in early-down EPA (0.05) on 784 plays at 46.2% success.

Inside the 20, Pierce was 0.71 EPA per play on nine plays, Josh Downs 0.61 on 15, and Michael Pittman 0.32 on 18. Pittman is in Pittsburgh, Pierce is headed to IR, and Downs is still on the roster.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 3.8 (#6); they passed 56.8% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Daniel Jones (49.6% success on 409 pass plays), Philip Rivers (42.3% success on 97 pass plays), Riley Leonard (31.4% success on 70 pass plays).

On rushes: Jonathan Taylor (44.4% success on 324 rush plays), Daniel Jones (68.4% success on 38 rush plays), DJ Giddens (42.3% success on 26 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Indianapolis threw 580 pass plays (57.4%, 15th) and ran 431 (42.6%, 18th). Neutral-down PROE was 3.8, sixth in the league, on a 56.8% pass rate, and pass yards per play were 6.68 (9th).

Rush success was 46.4% (4th) at 4.69 yards per play (10th), and pass success was 46.2% (11th). Daniel Jones was 49.6% successful on 409 pass plays and 68.4% on 38 rush plays, while Jonathan Taylor was 44.4% on 324 rush plays. Taylor is the 2026 back.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Indianapolis created 54 explosives of 20-plus yards (1,813 yards), ranking 22nd, and allowed 64 (1,811 yards), ranking 20th. The generated explosives were a pass game: 44 for 1,384 yards against 10 rushes for 429. Alec Pierce was the vertical piece (17 for 600). Tyler Warren (10 for 257) and Jonathan Taylor (nine rushes for 407, three catches for 100) were the other chunk creators. Cover 3 was the coverage they beat most often (15 for 493 yards). Cover 6 was two plays for 87 yards.

The defense's problem was also the pass: 57 allowed explosives through the air for 1,622 yards against seven rushes, with Cover 1 giving up 18 for 573 yards and Cover 3 giving up 15 for 448. Oronde Gadsden II's four catches for 129 yards led the opponent list. That is the 2025 allowed sample Anarumo is replacing pieces around.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Indianapolis lived in 11 personnel last year, but the better-paying look was 12: Taylor and Warren with a second tight end, Pittman, and Pierce at 1.69 full-PPR points per play against 1.45 in three-wide. That is why two-tight-end was not just a change-of-pace package. Shotgun was how they ran the offense, and it paid more than under center. RPOs were the cheap look.

Pittman is in Pittsburgh and Pierce is headed to IR, so both packages now have to run through Warren, Downs, and Keenan Allen. If 12 personnel still pays, it is because Warren and Mo Alie-Cox can carry the second tight end without last year's two wideouts. If it does not, Indianapolis is an 11-personnel team waiting to see whether Allen replaces Pittman's volume.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #20; play-action rank #4 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Indianapolis was not a motion-heavy offense. Pre-snap movement ranked 20th, and the pay bump was modest: 1.59 full-PPR points per play with motion against 1.37 without it. Play action was the real tell. The Colts used it on 16.6% of snaps, fourth in the league, and those plays paid 1.87 points against 1.41 without the fake.

That is the Jones-and-Taylor offense. If Jones is under center and Taylor is the engine, 2026 is about whether that fourth-ranked play-action rate still shows up. They do not need to become a top-ten motion team to look like themselves.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Daniel Jones produced career-best efficiency across multiple categories in 2025 before a torn Achilles tendon in Week 14 halted his campaign. Jones established personal bests with a 68% completion percentage, 8.1 yards per pass attempt, 11.9 yards per completion, a 52% success rate, and a 100.2 passer rating, while throwing 19 touchdown passes—his highest single-season mark since his 2019 rookie year. Across 13 DraftKings-tracked games, Jones posted a +0.12 EPA per dropback and a +3.6% completion percentage over expected, averaging 19.6 DraftKings points with a 16.1 floor and a 25.8 ceiling. The Colts opened 7-1 behind that early efficiency before cooling over his subsequent four starts, going 1-3 while Jones completed 61.9% of his throws (17th), averaged 7.3 yards per attempt (11th), posted a 4.5% touchdown rate (17th), recorded a 3% interception rate (24th), and logged seven fumbles. Indianapolis retained Jones on a two-year extension, banking on his recovery ahead of training camp despite a medical history that includes missed time due to injury in all but one career season.

Behind Jones, the quarterback room is Anthony Richardson at QB2 after he won the job on September 3, with Riley Leonard at QB3. Philip Rivers is gone after three DraftKings-tracked appearances (12.9 DraftKings points, -0.15 EPA per dropback, -1.1% CPOE). Warren Sharp ranks the Colts quarterbacks 23rd. Clean throwing platforms still sit on an offensive front Sharp ranks 11th after right tackle Braden Smith left for Houston. Indianapolis drafted guard Jalen Farmer at pick 113.

Jones has opened 41-of-62 for 376 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and two sacks, with 166 yards and a 72.8 rating in Week 1 and 210 yards and an 86.8 rating in the overtime Week 2. He is back from the Achilles tear, and what has not returned yet is the 100.2 rating.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Warren Sharp ranks the Colts receiving corps 23rd, and last year's targets explain why. Tyler Warren led Indianapolis with 112 overall targets, a 22.6% NFL+ target share, 5.5 air yards per target, and 23 red-zone targets. Michael Pittman was the other volume piece at 111 targets, 8.0 air yards per target, a 20.9% NFL+ share, and 18 red-zone looks, and between Warren's 88 early-down targets and Pittman's 83 the offense lived in the short-to-intermediate game. Pittman was traded to Pittsburgh.

Pierce was the vertical sample: +50.7 Receiving EPA, 19.1 air yards per target on 84 targets, 2.25 DraftKings points per target, three Slate Hits, and only nine red-zone targets. Downs was the underneath sample, with 88 targets, a 23.5% NFL+ share across 16 games, 15 red-zone targets, and 7.8 air yards per target. Mo Alie-Cox had 20 targets. Pierce signed a four-year extension after leading the NFL in yards per catch at 21.3 for a second straight season.

Steichen said Pierce is headed to IR with a heel injury from Kansas City, which takes the 19.1-air-yard vertical off the field after Pittman's 111 targets already went to Pittsburgh. Keenan Allen is listed as a starter in that vacated volume, Darius Slayton is listed behind Pierce, Ashton Dulin has an ankle injury, and Deion Burks is a seventh-rounder. Warren and Downs were already the short-to-intermediate offense; they now have to carry the passing game with Allen instead of waiting on Pierce to come back.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Indianapolis anchored its ground attack around a true bell-cow workload in 2025, leaning on Jonathan Taylor across all 17 contests. Taylor handled 323 rushing attempts, generating +3.2 Rush EPA and +0.6 rushing yards over expected per attempt while logging an official 43.0% NFL+ rushing success rate. His heavy involvement remained the engine of the offense through every phase of the field, but it was particularly concentrated inside the 20-yard line. In the red zone, Taylor commanded 71 rushes and five targets across 76 total opportunities, producing 16 combined touchdowns and a massive 123.7 fantasy points. Beyond Taylor, the rotation saw minimal sustained volume. DJ Giddens stepped in for four games, logging 26 plays for -0.8 Rush EPA, 0 RYOE per carry, and a 42.3% success rate, alongside five red-zone carries and one red-zone target with zero touchdowns. Ameer Abdullah chipped in three red-zone carries and one target, registering one touchdown on his four scoring-area opportunities before departing in the offseason.

Looking ahead to 2026, Warren Sharp ranks the Colts running backs fourth. Taylor is already the engine: 43 carries, 190 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, and seven receptions for 63 yards through two games. Abdullah, Tyler Goodson, and Salvon Ahmed are gone, and the official depth is Taylor, Seth McGowan, then DJ Giddens, with McGowan as RB2 after the seventh-round pick at 237. Sharp ranks the 2026 offensive line 11th after right tackle Braden Smith left for the Texans and center Danny Pinter left for the Ravens. Jalen Farmer is the fourth-round guard.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Jonathan Taylor 20 (18 rush, 2 rec); Michael Pittman 7 rec; Alec Pierce 6 rec; Daniel Jones 5 rush; Tyler Warren 5 (1 rush, 4 rec); Josh Downs 4 rec. Passing TDs: Daniel Jones 19, Philip Rivers 4, Riley Leonard 2. Defense TDs: Kenny Moore II (1 def TD). Special teams: Blake Grupe 34/36 FG, 42/45 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

Jonathan Taylor operated as the central engine of the Indianapolis offense, crossing the goal line 20 total times behind 18 rushing touchdowns and two receiving scores. Through the air, Daniel Jones paced the quarterback room with 19 passing touchdowns while adding five more scores on the ground, sharing passing work during the campaign with Philip Rivers, who tossed four touchdowns, and Riley Leonard, who contributed two. Outside of Taylor's heavy red-zone footprint, the perimeter finishing fell largely to Michael Pittman, who secured seven touchdown receptions, followed closely by Alec Pierce with six. Tight end Tyler Warren provided versatile scoring impact with five total touchdowns—four through the air alongside one rushing score—while Josh Downs chipped in four receiving touchdowns to round out the primary skill group.

The secondary and special-teams units provided complementary points without leaning on return scores. On defense, Kenny Moore II produced the team's lone non-offensive touchdown with an interception return score before departing the roster ahead of 2026. Placekicker Blake Grupe handled the specialist duties steadily throughout the year, converting 34 of his 36 field-goal tries and knocking through 42 of 45 extra-point attempts, while the return units finished the campaign without a kick or punt return touchdown. Taylor and Jones are still the people who scored. Pittman's seven receiving touchdowns are in Pittsburgh, Pierce's six are heading to IR, and Moore's pick-six is gone.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Indianapolis scored more in the first half than the fourth, with the second quarter at 8.4 points per game (6th) and 25.5 full-PPR points (9th) and the first quarter at 6.4 (3rd) and 24.0 fantasy points (2nd). Third quarter was 6.4 (5th) and 20.9 fantasy points (14th), while the fourth quarter fell to 5.9 (23rd) and 17.2 fantasy points (31st).

The defense allowed the most real scoring in the fourth quarter at 7.9 points per game (26th on the fewest-allowed scale) and 22.9 opponent fantasy points (17th), with the second quarter at 7.5 allowed (20th) and 26.9 fantasy points allowed (28th). First quarter was 4.3 (15th) and 15.9 fantasy points allowed (8th), and third quarter was 4.4 (16th) and 21.3 fantasy points allowed (26th).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #25, Secondary #8.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Germaine Pratt led the club with 126 tackles; Laiatu Latu 8.5 sacks, DeForest Buckner 4.0 sacks, Kwity Paye 4.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Germaine Pratt: 6 TFL, 1 INT, 10 PD; Zaire Franklin: 7 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 5 PD; Nick Cross: 5 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, 5 PD; Camryn Bynum: 3 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 4 INT, 8 PD; Mekhi Blackmon: 2 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 2 INT, 7 PD; Kenny Moore II: 3 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD; Laiatu Latu: 12 TFL, 8.5 sacks, 3 INT, 5 PD; DeForest Buckner: 9 TFL, 4.0 sacks; Kwity Paye: 6 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 1 PD.

Last season's production sat on Laiatu Latu (12 tackles for loss, 8.5 sacks, 20 quarterback hits, three interceptions) and DeForest Buckner (nine tackles for loss, four sacks, 13 quarterback hits in 10 games after a neck injury). Grover Stewart added 55 tackles while Germaine Pratt (126 tackles) and Zaire Franklin (125) ate the second-level volume and Nick Cross had 120 tackles from safety. Pratt is gone, Franklin was traded to Green Bay for Colby Wooden, and Paye (four sacks) left for the Raiders.

The 2026 front is Latu, Buckner if the neck holds at 32, and Key, with Adebawore behind Buckner. Clemons is on IR and Wooden was waived at final cuts, so neither is in that rotation. Jaylon Carlies is listed on the weak side, Davis-Gaither in the middle, and CJ Allen behind him. Sharp ranks the secondary 8th; in two games it has allowed 74 points, 506 yards to Baltimore and 523 to Kansas City. Gardner's 36 tackles and nine passes defensed include his Jets stint, then four Colts games after the November 4 trade before a calf injury, and Ward was limited to seven games by concussions. Bynum is the safety holdover, Haulcy is listed at strong safety, Walley is listed at nickel after missing his rookie year with a torn ACL, and Taylor-Britt is listed behind Ward.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Cover 3, Cover 2, and Cover 1 were the three looks Indianapolis actually lived in, and Cover 1 was the stingiest of those at 1.60 fantasy points per snap (10th) on 166 plays. Cover 3 and Cover 2 sat in the middle of the league at 1.77 and 1.69 per snap. Cover 4 (2.35, 27th) and 2-Man (2.37) were the leaks on smaller samples. Cover 0 ranked third at 2.27 per snap on 40 plays, and Cover 6's 1.54 per snap sat on 20. Those 2025 shell rates are historical. They are not 2026 assignments for Ward, Gardner, Walley, Bynum, or Haulcy.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Blake Grupe: 34/36 FG, 42/45 PAT.

Rigoberto Sanchez led with 44 punts (22 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Anthony Gould: 25 returns for 647 yards.

Punt returner Anthony Gould: 13 returns for 131 yards.

Special teams tackler Austin Ajiake: 14 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Indianapolis's 2025 specialist sample was Blake Grupe: 34 of 36 field goals, seven from 50-plus, a 60-yard long, and 42-of-45 extra points. Rigoberto Sanchez punted 44 times with none blocked and 22 inside the 20, Anthony Gould returned 25 kickoffs for 647 yards and 13 punts for 131 yards, and Austin Ajiake had 14 combined special-teams tackles.

Grupe and Gould were waived at cutdown, Spencer Shrader is the 2026 kicker, and the listed kickoff returner is Ashton Dulin, who has an ankle injury, with Seth McGowan second and Josh Downs as the listed punt returner.

Penalty Analysis

Warren Sharp awards Indianapolis a B for its 2025 Penalties & Discipline grade. Warren Sharp puts false starts and offensive holding at 32% of the club's penalties, with pre-snap penalties per game ranked 28th and the fourth-quarter net penalty margin the league's largest. Defensive pass interference against Indianapolis averaged 18.3 yards, and Alec Pierce was a top-three receiver in drawn DPI and the yards that followed.

Beneficial automatic first downs on third down were 23% of the club's automatic first downs, a bottom-five rate, after ranking among the lowest in 2024 as well. At Lucas Oil Stadium they ranked 30th in drawn opponent holding and 32nd in drawn false starts, and Indianapolis committed the league's most face-mask penalties. Those are the 2025 ranks rather than a Steichen 2026 assignment.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 56 penalties for 442 yards (#10). Most common: Offensive Holding (20), False Start (11), Delay of Game (8). Most flags in Shotgun (21), Under Center (7), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Bernhard Raimann (7), Matt Goncalves (5), Braden Smith (5).

Defense: 46 penalties for 416 yards (#14), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Defensive Holding (7), Unnecessary Roughness (6). Most flags on Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (4). Most flagged players: Mekhi Blackmon (5), Kenny Moore II (4), Zaire Franklin (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Indianapolis saw offensive holding lead at 20, with 11 false starts, eight delay-of-game calls, five illegal formation flags, and four offensive pass interference penalties. Defensive pass interference led the other side at nine, then seven defensive holding, six unnecessary roughness, four face mask, and three roughing the passer.

Shotgun accounted for 21 of the offensive flags, under center 7, and pistol 1. Cover 1 accounted for 15 of the defensive flags, ahead of Cover 3 (5) and Cover 2 (4). Third-down automatic first downs is the 2025 rank Sharp already named.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Tyler Warren TE4, Jonathan Taylor RB5.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Jonathan Taylor (21.2 FPavg), Daniel Jones (17.3 FPavg), Alec Pierce (12.2 FPavg), Michael Pittman (11.8 FPavg), Tyler Warren (11.1 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Cover 3 was the look Indianapolis saw most (158 plays, 1.96 full-PPR points per play), and Tyler Warren led that shell with 58 points ahead of Alec Pierce's 52. Michael Pittman's 62 points against Cover 2 were last year's volume sample. Pierce led the scoring against Cover 1, Cover 4, and Cover 6 on those downfield shells. Josh Downs led Cover 0 with 17 points on the 28-play, 2.68-per-play look, while Warren also led 2-Man and Cover 9. Those are 2025 leaders against coverages.

Skill losses: Philip Rivers (QB), Michael Pittman (WR) to the Steelers, Adonai Mitchell (WR) to the Jets, Salvon Ahmed (RB), Tyler Goodson (RB) to the Falcons, D.J. Montgomery (WR), Ameer Abdullah (RB) to the Jaguars, Anthony Gould (WR), and Blake Grupe (K).

Skill draft picks: Seth McGowan (RB, Rd 7, Kentucky) and Deion Burks (WR, Rd 7, Oklahoma).

Skill free-agent adds: Keenan Allen (WR, Chargers 2025 card) and Darius Slayton (WR, Giants 2025 card).

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Daniel Jones's 13-game Colts sample is a 16.1 floor, 25.8 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, $6,000, and 3.34 FP/$ at +0.12 EPA per dropback.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Tyler Warren's 17-game card is a 7.6 floor, 17.9 ceiling, four Slate Hits, $4,700, and 2.19 FP/$. He led Indianapolis in overall targets (112) and red-zone targets (23). That is the 2025 tight-end sample Sharp already ranks TE4.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Alec Pierce's 15-game card is a 6.8 floor, 24.6 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $4,600, and 2.75 FP/$. The 19.1 air-yard average and nine red-zone targets are the 2025 sample. He is headed to IR.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Josh Downs averaged 8.9 DraftKings points in 16 games with a 5.4 floor, 16.2 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, and 2.05 FP/$. He had 88 targets and 15 red-zone targets.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Jonathan Taylor's 17-game card is a 13.1 floor, 35.8 ceiling, seven Slate Hits, $8,500, and 2.66 FP/$ on 323 rushes. That is the workhorse sample behind Sharp ranking him RB5.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Keenan Allen's Chargers card is 17 games, 11.3 DraftKings points, a 7.0 floor, 19.5 ceiling, two Slate Hits, $5,000, and 2.21 FP/$. That is prior-club production from 2025.

Darius Slayton's Giants card is 14 games, 7.2 DraftKings points, a 4.6 floor, 12.9 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, $4,100, and 1.78 FP/$.

Inside Scoop

Indianapolis finished 8-9 last season, and Warren Sharp still has them at 7.5 wins and third in the AFC South. He is not treating that record as a collapse. Jonathan Taylor is why Sharp ranks the backfield fourth, and Daniel Jones went 7-1 before a four-game fade and a Week 14 Achilles tear. The 2026 pieces that make 8-9 incomplete are whether Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward can stay on the field for a full season, and whether a front seven Sharp ranks 25th can survive Micheal Clemons on IR.

The first two games offered two completely different looks at that bet. Baltimore won 41-23 and put up 506 yards. Kansas City needed overtime to win 33-30 after Indianapolis led 20-17 at halftime, and the Chiefs still finished with a 523-329 yardage edge, but Taylor has already run for 190 yards and four touchdowns. Houston comes to Lucas Oil next, the first AFC South game of the year, and Pierce is headed to IR. One stretch does not tell us whether Gardner and Ward can keep a secondary Sharp ranks 8th on the field for a full season, but it did show Taylor can still carry the offense while that defense tries to catch up.

That split is why Indianapolis remains one of the more interesting teams in this preview series. Sharp's preseason betting snapshot installed them as favorites in six of 17 games with a 1.1-point average line, minus-0.8 at home and 2.8 on the road, a modest vote of confidence for a club coming off 8-9. They went 7-10 against the spread last year, a tick worse than the standings, while a 9-8 record to the over reflected games that leaned just over the total. From a DFS perspective, the 2025 profiles tell a similarly layered story: Taylor, Jones and Warren showed combinations of floor and ceiling that fit GPP/Cash archetypes, Pierce's vertical sample carried more tournament-shaped volatility, and Keenan Allen's Chargers card is the prior-club tape. Those are historical profiles rather than weekly 2026 recommendations, but they reinforce the larger point. Indianapolis does not need last year's exact 7-1 offense back. If Jones stays healthy, Taylor remains the engine, and Gardner and Ward hold the secondary together, last year's 8-9 can still look like an interruption rather than the new normal.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.