NFL 2026 PREVIEW: JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the 2026 campaign looking to build on a dominant 13-4 performance from the previous season, where they posted top-ten marks in both scoring offense and scoring defense. Warren Sharp’s forecast projects 9.5 wins for this squad, slotting them second in their division despite a mid-pack Strength of Schedule ranked 14th out of 32 teams. The roster profile reveals a distinct imbalance, with the secondary standing as the unit’s strongest asset at number 12 league-wide, while the running back group ranks as the weakest link at number 29. This contrast between a stronger secondary outlook and a struggling ground game defines the team’s structural outlook heading into the new year.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB — signed in free agency from Washington), Daniel Faalele (OL — via trade from the Giants), Ameer Abdullah (RB), and Ruke Orhorhoro (IDL — via trade).

Key Departures: Devin Lloyd (LB) to the Panthers, Travis Etienne (RB) to the Saints, Greg Newsome II (CB) to the Giants, Andrew Wingard (S) to the Cardinals, Tim Patrick (WR), Maason Smith (IDL) to the Falcons, Austin Johnson (IDL), Dyami Brown (WR) to the Commanders, Dawuane Smoot (EDGE), Johnny Mundt (TE) to the Eagles, Cooper Hodges (RT), and Josh Cephus (WR).

Unavailable / status: Parker Hughes (LB — Reserve/Injured); Patrick Mekari (OL — recovering from back procedure; expected to miss time early in the regular season).

The Jaguars enter Liam Coen’s second season with a coaching staff that has retained its core leadership, as both Offensive Coordinator Grant Udinski and Defensive Coordinator Anthony Campanile return for their second years in those roles. This continuity is critical given the significant turnover on the roster, particularly at running back where the departure of Travis Etienne leaves a major void. Sharp ranks the 2026 running backs unit 29th, and while Chris Rodriguez Jr. arrives via free agency from Washington to help fill the gap, replacing Etienne’s production will be a steep challenge for an offense that also lost wide receiver Tim Patrick and tight end Johnny Mundt. The offensive line faces its own adjustments after losing right tackle Cooper Hodges and with Mekari sidelined after a back procedure; Sharp rates the 2026 OL unit 17th overall, and Jacksonville added Daniel Faalele via trade from the Giants to reinforce the interior.

On the defensive side, the Jaguars must absorb the loss of several key contributors despite entering the season with a secondary ranked 12th and a front seven ranked 15th. The departure of linebacker Devin Lloyd to the Panthers and safety Andrew Wingard to the Cardinals removes experienced leaders from the defense, while the exit of edge rusher Dawuane Smoot and interior linemen Maason Smith and Austin Johnson thins out the rotation. To counter these losses, Jacksonville added Ruke Orhorhoro via trade to bolster the interior defensive line. Orhorhoro provides another interior option as Jacksonville works through its defensive-line rotation. With Greg Newsome II also departing for the Giants, the secondary will rely heavily on its returning holdovers to sustain Sharp’s 12th-ranked 2026 secondary outlook.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

GM James Gladstone’s draft strategy began with a controversial second-round selection of Texas A&M tight end Nate Boerkircher. Sharp draft analyst Ryan McCrystal characterized the pick as a significant reach, citing limited collegiate receiving production and Boerkircher’s age (25 upon debut). Jacksonville’s official draft materials credit Boerkircher with 38 career receptions for 417 yards and four touchdowns across Nebraska and Texas A&M; his 2025 Texas A&M season alone was 19 catches for 198 yards and three touchdowns. While Boerkircher showed athletic testing at the Combine, his primary utility historically has been as a blocking tight end — a skill set Gladstone cited as essential for heavier offensive formations. That makes the selection an aggressive bet on schematic fit rather than immediate receiving upside.

The Jaguars continued to target trench traits in the third round, selecting defensive tackle Albert Regis from Texas A&M and guard Emmanuel Pregnon from Oregon. Per Sharp’s draft analysis, Regis was evaluated around 293–295 pounds and projected primarily as a nose tackle or shade (2-technique / 2i) interior behind DaVon Hamilton, with a college run-game tackle rate that ranked among the better marks for power-conference interior linemen, though pass-rush tape leaves him unlikely to be trusted as a three-technique. Jacksonville’s current roster lists Regis at 317 pounds. Pregnon’s strength and length made him a natural challenger for Ezra Cleveland on the interior at draft time. Late in camp that projection has already moved: Jacksonville has consistently worked LT Anton Harrison, LG Emmanuel Pregnon, C Robert Hainsey, RG Ezra Cleveland, and RT Walker Little with the first team, so Pregnon is already operating as the first-team left guard with Cleveland shifted to right guard — a shift accelerated in part by Patrick Mekari’s back procedure.

Later rounds filled out the class with rotational pieces rather than Day 1 starters. Jacksonville added Duke edge Wesley Williams in the fourth round (pick 119) and Houston tight end Tanner Koziol in the fifth (pick 164), then took wide receivers Josh Cameron (Baylor, pick 191) and CJ Williams (Stanford, pick 203) in the sixth. The seventh round brought Washington edge Zach Durfee (pick 233) and Middle Tennessee linebacker Parker Hughes (pick 240). Hughes was placed on Reserve/Injured on August 17, so he is not available as healthy defensive depth entering the season. The remaining late picks still add trench and receiver depth without changing the early-round bet on a blocking tight end and interior help.

Sharp Forecasts Jacksonville Jaguars with 9.5 Wins

The Jaguars enter the 2026 season with a projected win total of 9.5, a number that reflects their strong 13-4 finish in 2025 but also accounts for significant roster turnover and statistical regression risks. While the offense was highly efficient under head coach Liam Coen (ranked 13th among head coaches by Sharp), scoring 27.9 points per game (6th in the NFL) and ranking ninth in points per drive at 2.35, the underlying yardage metrics suggest some vulnerability, as the unit ranked just 18th in yards per play at 5.2. Special teams provided a notable boost last year, with kicker Cam Little converting 8 of 10 attempts from 50-plus yards. Sharp's field-goal-luck metric rated Jacksonville fourth-highest at 3.03 net over expectation. However, relying on such variance is dangerous, especially when the schedule is rated as mid-pack at 14th out of 32 teams, offering neither a distinct advantage nor a prohibitive challenge.

Defensive and offensive personnel changes create substantial uncertainty around this win projection. The defense forced 31 takeaways to rank second in the league, which masked deficiencies elsewhere, including a 30th-ranked sack rate and a 21st-place finish in passing yards allowed per game at 218.1. The loss of linebacker Devin Lloyd in free agency further complicates matters for a unit that already struggles to generate pressure. On offense, the departure of Travis Etienne leaves a major void in the backfield, with returning roster player Bhayshul Tuten and free-agency signing Chris Rodriguez Jr. tasked with filling the role. Tuten managed only 83 carries in his rookie campaign, while Rodriguez posted career highs of 112 carries and 38.5 rushing yards per game in 13 contests for the Commanders, yet neither has proven themselves as reliable pass-catchers, with Rodriguez recording just six receptions in 35 career games. With Sharp’s 2026 running backs unit ranked 29th and the secondary at 12th, the team must find immediate production from its new rushers to sustain its previous scoring output.

Schedule Timing & Rest

The Jacksonville Jaguars enter the 2026 season ranked first in Sharp’s net rest edge metric. Their overall rest rank is 19th and prep rank is 13th. Sharp’s week-by-week rest edges show specific advantages — including a +7 edge in Week 8 against Indianapolis and a +1 edge in Week 2 at Denver — and specific deficits, including a -4 disadvantage in Week 10 at Tennessee and -3 deficits in Weeks 11 and 13. Those week-level edges are the concrete schedule facts; a #1 net-rest-edge rank does not by itself prove the club “frequently” enjoys more recovery time in every matchup.

Travel and prime-time scheduling add further timing context. Jacksonville ranks 21st in short-week road games and 19th for games off road Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football. Their negated bye rank is 25th. With a mid-pack strength of schedule ranked 14th, bettors should weigh the strong net rest edge against the listed weekly rest deficits when evaluating lines.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Trevor Lawrence (12 INT, 3 FL), Bhayshul Tuten (1 FL), Dyami Brown (1 FL), Jakobi Meyers (1 FL). Takeaways: Devin Lloyd (5 INT, 1 FR), Antonio Johnson (5 INT), Jarrian Jones (3 INT, 1 FR)

The Jaguars entered the 2026 cycle with a turnover profile defined by elite ball-hawking rather than perfect quarterback security. The defense generated 31 takeaways, ranking second in the league, driven largely by 22 interceptions which also placed second overall. Devin Lloyd and Antonio Johnson each secured five of those picks, while Jarrian Jones added three. Lloyd left in free agency, so that takeaway production has to be replaced. This aggressive unit also recovered nine fumbles, ranking ninth. Jacksonville committed 18 giveaways to rank 13th. Trevor Lawrence accounted for all 12 of the team’s interceptions thrown and three of the six fumbles lost, with Bhayshul Tuten, Jakobi Meyers, and the departed Dyami Brown each responsible for one additional fumble loss.

The +13 turnover margin helped offset occasional offensive giveaways in 2025, but losing Lloyd removes one of the primary drivers of that takeaway advantage. Understanding that these takeaways are distinct from offensive giveaways helps clarify the possession profile without treating giveaways as a pass-protection metric.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Trevor Lawrence 247 yards.

Sack leaders (defense): Josh Hines-Allen (8), Arik Armstead (5.5), Travon Walker (3.5), Dennis Gardeck (2.5)

Trevor Lawrence lost 247 yards to sacks in 2025. Separately, Sharp ranks Jacksonville’s reworked 2026 offensive line 17th. The unit allowed 41 total sacks in 2025 (20th). Of those, 35 came on shotgun plays and six under center. Against Jacksonville’s formation volume (627 shotgun plays, 414 under center), sacks occurred on roughly 5.6% of all shotgun formation plays versus 1.4% of all under-center plays; these are formation-play shares, not conventional dropback sack rates (which use sacks ÷ dropbacks). Rank among under-center sack totals was 11th.

On the defensive side, the pass rush generated 32 total sacks, ranking 27th overall. Josh Hines-Allen led the team with eight sacks, followed by Arik Armstead with 5.5 and Travon Walker with 3.5. Dennis Gardeck also contributed 2.5 sacks. By coverage shell, Jacksonville recorded 11 sacks in Cover 2 (#9 in raw count) and six in Cover 4 (#6 in raw count). Those are sack-count ranks, not sacks per coverage snap. The rush was thinner when sending five defenders, with only four sacks in those situations (#30).

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 2 (#4) — Parker Washington (2 punt returns).

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 0 (#1). No punt or kickoff return touchdowns allowed.

Punt returns 26 for 356 yards; kickoff returns 58 for 1591 yards.

The Jaguars demonstrated elite return-TD production in 2025, scoring two touchdowns on special teams to rank fourth in the league. Both scores came via punt returns from Parker Washington, who capitalized on his opportunities to put points on the board without assistance from kickoff returns. While the team generated 356 yards across 26 punt returns and accumulated 1,591 yards on 58 kickoff returns, Washington’s pair of scores were the decisive plays that elevated the unit’s overall production and ranking.

Defensively, Jacksonville did not allow a punt- or kickoff-return touchdown in 2025, ranking first on that outcome measure.

Penalties

Offense: 73 penalties for 544 yards (#29) — 57% of the team's 127 penalties. Most common: False Start (25), Offensive Holding (23), Unnecessary Roughness (9). Most flags in Shotgun (20), Under Center (17), Pistol (2). Most flagged players: Patrick Mekari (8), Trevor Lawrence (7), Walker Little (7).

Defense: 54 penalties for 519 yards (#28) — 43% of team penalties. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (13), Defensive Holding (9), Unnecessary Roughness (7). Most flags in Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (10), Cover 2 (6). Most flagged players: Jarrian Jones (7), Jourdan Lewis (5), Ventrell Miller (4).

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense struggled with discipline, accounting for 73 of the team’s 127 total penalties. This unit generated 544 penalty yards, ranking 29th in the league, and represented 57% of the franchise's infractions. False starts were the most frequent issue with 25 occurrences, followed closely by 23 offensive holding calls and 9 instances of unnecessary roughness. Twenty offensive flags occurred from shotgun, compared with 17 under center and two from pistol. Individual accountability fell heavily on Patrick Mekari, who led the group with 8 flags, while Trevor Lawrence and Walker Little each accrued 7 penalties.

Defensive lapses contributed the remaining 43% of the team's penalty count, totaling 54 infractions for 519 yards and a league rank of 28th. Defensive pass interference was the primary concern with 13 calls, supplemented by 9 defensive holding penalties and 7 for unnecessary roughness. Fifteen defensive flags occurred on Cover 1 plays, compared with 10 in Cover 3 and six in Cover 2. Among the personnel, Jarrian Jones was flagged most often with 7 penalties, Jourdan Lewis recorded 5, and Ventrell Miller added 4 to the defensive total.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 830 plays, 44.3% success, 0.03 EPA/play (#15). Most efficient on early downs: Brenton Strange (47 plays, 0.46 EPA/play), Hunter Long (13 plays, 0.34 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 207 plays, 45.9% success, -0.03 EPA/play (#19). Most efficient in the red zone: Trevor Lawrence (24 plays, 0.49 EPA/play).

The Jaguars operated with solid efficiency on early downs, generating a positive 0.03 EPA per play across 830 plays to rank 15th in the league. Their success rate sat at 44.3%, indicating a balanced ability to stay on schedule during first and second down situations. Tight end Brenton Strange was the most effective weapon in these scenarios, posting an impressive 0.46 EPA per play over 47 plays. Hunter Long also contributed positively with a 0.34 EPA per play mark across his 13 early-down plays, helping the offense maintain momentum before facing third down.

Red zone execution proved slightly more challenging, as the team recorded a negative 0.03 EPA per play over 207 red zone plays, landing them at 19th in the rankings. Despite the overall dip in efficiency, they achieved a 45.9% success rate inside the 20-yard line. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence stood out as the primary driver of value in this area, delivering 0.49 EPA per play across his 24 red zone plays. This individual performance highlights his capacity to create high-value outcomes even when the unit’s aggregate red zone metrics lagged behind their early-down productivity.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

Pass plays: 603 (#13). Pass rate: 56.1% (#19). Yards per pass play: 6.27 (#12). Pass-play success: 46.3% (#9).

Rush plays: 471 (#8). Rush rate: 43.9% (#14). Yards per rush: 4.20 (#27). Rush-play success: 42.0% (#23).

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 6.0 (#4); they passed 58.7% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): Trevor Lawrence (46.2% success on 600 pass plays).

On rushes (qualifying 2025 PBP rush plays — not official NFL attempt totals): Travis Etienne (35.8% success on 260), Bhayshul Tuten (46.4% success on 84), Trevor Lawrence (64.0% success on 75).

The Jacksonville Jaguars were not a raw pass-heavy offense by league rate alone — they called pass plays on 56.1% of snaps (19th) — but they were aggressive relative to expectation. On neutral downs they posted a pass rate over expected (PROE) of 6.0, fourth in the NFL, while passing 58.7% of those snaps. Total pass volume still sat mid-to-high at 603 plays (13th), against 471 rush plays (8th). Efficiency through the air was a clear strength: 6.27 yards per pass play (12th) and a 46.3% success rate (9th). Trevor Lawrence led that aerial attack with a 46.2% success rate across his 600 pass plays.

On the ground, the Jaguars faced more challenges, averaging just 4.20 yards per rush to rank 27th in the league while posting a 42.0% success rate that landed at 23rd. Using qualifying 2025 PBP rush plays (not official attempt totals), Travis Etienne recorded a 35.8% success rate on 260 plays, Bhayshul Tuten 46.4% on 84, and Trevor Lawrence 64.0% on 75. Official Jacksonville attempt totals differ for some rushers (Tuten 83; Lawrence 82), so treat the success-rate denominators as the PBP sample above.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Offense: 66 explosives (#9) for 1895 yards (#10) — 57 pass, 9 rush.

Defense allowed: 51 explosives (#8) for 1507 yards (#8) — 46 pass, 5 rush.

Top explosive producers: Parker Washington (REC: 17 for 472 yds), Brian Thomas Jr. (REC: 11 for 332 yds), Brenton Strange (REC: 9 for 213 yds).

Opponents who burned coverage: Nico Collins (3), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3), Tyquan Thornton (3).

Coverages beaten most often: Cover 3 (18), Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (10).

Coverages that sprung leaks: Cover 3 (12), Cover 2 (11), Cover 6 (8).

The Jaguars’ offense generated significant chunk plays in 2025, ranking ninth in the league with 66 explosive gains of 20 or more yards. These big plays accumulated 1,895 total yards, placing the unit tenth in yardage production, and were heavily skewed toward the passing game which accounted for 57 of those instances. Parker Washington led Jacksonville receivers with 17 explosive receptions for 472 yards, while Brian Thomas Jr. contributed 11 such catches for 332 yards. Tight end Brenton Strange recorded nine explosive receptions for 213 yards. Although the ground game produced fewer long runs with only nine instances, it still added 307 yards to the total, highlighting an aerial attack that drove the majority of the team’s big-play production.

Defensively, Jacksonville was equally adept at limiting opponent momentum, allowing just 51 explosive plays which ranked eighth-best in the NFL. The defense surrendered 1,507 yards on these plays, with pass coverage breakdowns accounting for 46 of the allowed explosives compared to only five on the ground. The largest raw count of explosive plays allowed came against Cover 3 with 12, followed by Cover 2 with 11 and Cover 6 with eight. Those totals reflect raw explosive-play counts rather than per-snap coverage efficiency. Specific matchups proved challenging, as Nico Collins, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyquan Thornton each recorded three explosive plays against the Jaguars’ secondary. Despite these individual bright spots for opponents, the overall defensive performance remained stout, particularly in preventing long rushing gains.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

The Jacksonville Jaguars leaned heavily on their 11 personnel package, which features one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers, using it for 766 plays to generate 1.45 full PPR fantasy points per play. This grouping relied on the production of Travis Etienne, Brenton Strange, Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington, and Jakobi Meyers. The team also utilized 12 personnel with two tight ends and two wide receivers for 241 plays, yielding 1.36 fantasy points per play through contributors like Etienne, Johnny Mundt, Strange, Thomas Jr., and Washington. Usage dropped significantly in heavier sets, as the 21 personnel group with two running backs saw only 39 plays and a lower efficiency of 0.80 fantasy points per play, featuring Etienne alongside Bhayshul Tuten, Strange, Dyami Brown, and Washington.

In terms of alignment, the offense operated primarily out of the shotgun formation, which accounted for 58.4% of their plays and produced 1.66 fantasy points per play. Under center alignments made up 38.5% of the workload but were less efficient at 0.98 fantasy points per play across 414 plays. The pistol formation was used sparingly for just 33 plays, resulting in 1.26 fantasy points per play. Run-pass options were integrated into these structures for 51 total plays, though they generated a modest 0.75 fantasy points per play when executed.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #9; play-action rank #21 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Jacksonville used pre-snap motion on 646 plays (60.1% of offensive plays), ninth-most in the league. Those motion plays succeeded 45.7% of the time and produced 1.49 full PPR fantasy points per play, versus 1.23 when the offense stayed static. Play-action was much rarer: 141 plays (13.1%, rank 21st) with a 44.0% success rate. When they did fake the run, the payoff was clear — 1.86 fantasy points per play with play-action against 1.32 without it. Motion is a core part of how this offense gets into the play; play-action is a change-up, not the base look.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Jaguars' 2026 quarterback room at number 15, a unit anchored by Trevor Lawrence who delivered a tale of two seasons in 2025. Lawrence appeared in all 17 games, averaging 21.7 fantasy points with a floor of 17.6 and a ceiling of 29.2. His efficiency metrics showed marked improvement after the Week 8 bye, as he posted a +0.02 EPA per dropback and a -1.6% CPOE for the year. The passing attack became significantly more explosive in the second half of the schedule, gaining 10 or more yards on 31.4% of attempts, which ranked third in the NFL. This was a stark contrast to the pre-bye stretch where only 23.3% of passes went for double digits, ranking 25th. Lawrence’s yardage per attempt jumped from 6.3 before the break to 7.9 afterward, while his touchdown rate climbed from 3.5% to 6.6%. He also contributed on the ground, setting career highs with 359 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

Sharp rates the 2026 offensive line 17th. With Lawrence under contract through 2030, the franchise has long-term stability at the most critical position. Lawrence improved dramatically during Coen's first season, moving from bottom-tier pre-bye efficiency to top-10 marks in yards per attempt and touchdown rate over the final nine weeks of 2025. That progression is the 2025 story; the 2026 OL rank is a separate personnel outlook heading into the new season.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Jaguars will aim to sustain the high-efficiency passing game established in the latter part of 2025. Lawrence’s dual-threat capability and an OL unit Sharp places in the middle of the pack create a viable foundation for continued growth. While the receiving corps saw changes with departures such as Tim Patrick and Dyami Brown, the core passing dynamics rely on Lawrence maintaining his post-bye form. The team expects him to build on that momentum, leveraging his proven ability to generate big plays and score both through the air and on the ground.

Top two QBs. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Win = weeks in the top N at that DK position on the salary slate (QB 5 / RB·WR 12 / TE 6). DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Jaguars’ 2026 receiving corps 17th. On the 2025 Jacksonville tape, Parker Washington and Brian Thomas Jr. carried the clearest full-season volume among holdovers, while Jakobi Meyers’ Jacksonville stint was shorter and must not be mixed with his Las Vegas games. After seven games with the Raiders, Meyers played nine regular-season games for Jacksonville with 61 targets, 42 receptions, and 483 receiving yards in that stint — not the 110-target / 16-game NFL+ season total that blends both clubs. Washington led Jacksonville-qualified volume with 95 targets and a 23.5% TGT% among qualifying receivers; Thomas Jr. drew 91 targets with a 14.3 AYavg (air yards per target, not yards per reception). Brenton Strange was far more involved than Johnny Mundt, drawing 60 targets to Mundt’s 19. The departure of depth contributors Tim Patrick, Dyami Brown, and Johnny Mundt thins the roster, but Meyers, Washington, and Thomas remain the primary returning pass-catchers.

Red-zone usage highlighted Washington’s importance near the goal line, where he led all pass-catchers with 16 targets and an 18.4% share. Strange captured 10 red-zone targets, while Meyers saw nine. Travis Etienne added 10 looks from the backfield before his departure. On early downs, Thomas and Washington commanded the largest early-down WR target shares, combining for 130 targets. Thomas generated 1.49 fantasy points per target in these situations, while Washington offered slightly higher efficiency at 1.73 points per target.

Looking toward 2026, the Jaguars will integrate rookie additions Nate Boerkircher, Tanner Koziol, Josh Cameron, and CJ Williams into a group that already demonstrated high-volume capability. Travis Hunter remains a two-way piece — August depth charts listed him as a starting CB and second-team WR, and the club still says he will play extensively on both sides even as late camp has leaned more defensive — which matters for fantasy because his defensive workload can cap route volume. With Lawrence under contract through 2030 and coming off a career-best stretch, the returning holdovers have a stable foundation. Sharp’s 2026 middle-of-the-pack receiver ranking reflects both the proven production of the top names and questions about depth after several departures. The team will need its new draft picks — and a clear Hunter usage plan — to maintain the target distribution that fueled the late-season offensive surge.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% = NFL+ target percentage over each player's qualifying sample; it should not be read as a season-long share of every Jacksonville team target. For midseason movers, those columns are left blank rather than mixing prior-team games into a Jacksonville row. Meyers’ Jacksonville stint (independent team totals): 9 games, 61 targets, 42 receptions, 483 yards. DK columns use Jacksonville fantasy weeks only.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets for Meyers is his Jacksonville-stint total (61 targets in nine games). Other rows remain NFL+ / Hacking DFS board figures; prefer red-zone and early-down PBP tables when comparing teammates who did not change clubs.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The Jaguars enter the 2026 season with significant uncertainty in the backfield after losing Travis Etienne, who served as the primary workhorse in 2025. Etienne carried the load with 260 attempts for 1,107 rushing yards, but his efficiency metrics were mixed, posting a negative EPA of -26.8 and a success rate of just 36.2%. Behind him, Bhayshul Tuten provided supplemental production with 83 carries for 307 yards and a higher success rate of 47.0%, while LeQuint Allen Jr. saw limited action with 23 attempts for 94 yards. Those 2025 numbers describe last year’s performance; Sharp’s #29 ranking for the running backs is a 2026 personnel-unit outlook, not a 2025 finish label.

Red-zone usage further highlights the void left by Etienne’s departure, as he led the backfield with 54 red-zone rushes and 10 combined rushing/receiving red-zone touchdowns on 64 red-zone opportunities. Tuten had 26 red-zone rushes and two targets across 28 opportunities, producing seven combined rushing and receiving red-zone touchdowns, whereas Allen Jr. had minimal impact with only four red-zone carries and no scores. With Etienne gone, the Jaguars must redistribute these high-value touches inside the 20. Chris Rodriguez Jr. arrives via free agency from Washington to help fill the roster spot, but replacing Etienne’s red-zone volume is an open competition rather than a settled hierarchy.

Offensive line performance will be critical to stabilizing the rushing attack. Sharp rates the 2026 OL unit #17 — again a current personnel outlook, not a 2025 performance grade. Late-camp first-team work has featured Emmanuel Pregnon at left guard with Ezra Cleveland at right guard, and Jacksonville added Daniel Faalele via trade to reinforce the interior. Without a clear alpha back established beyond the departed Etienne, the 2026 picture is Tuten and Rodriguez competing for the lead workload, with Allen, Ameer Abdullah, and DeeJay Dallas providing veteran/depth and special-teams competition behind them. Allen missed the remainder of camp with a soft-tissue injury; his Week 1 status remains worth monitoring.

Rush GP = NFL+ games with a recorded rush attempt (not full-season DK appearances). NFL+ Succ % is the NFL+ rushing success rate — distinct from 2025 PBP rush-play success in the Pass Rate / Rush Rate section. Slate Win = weeks finishing in the top N at that DraftKings position on the salary slate (QB top 5, RB/WR top 12, TE top 6). DKavg, floor, ceiling, and Slate Win use weekly DraftKings logs.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

RZ TD (all) = combined rushing and receiving touchdowns scored on red-zone opportunities — not rushing TDs alone.

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Jacksonville Jaguars posted a potent offensive output in 2025, averaging 27.9 points per game to rank sixth in the league. This real-world scoring efficiency translated into 86.7 full PPR fantasy points per game, which placed the unit eleventh overall. While the team was highly effective at putting points on the board, the fantasy production metric highlights the volume and involvement of skill players beyond just touchdowns and field goals.

Defensively, the Jaguars were equally formidable, allowing only 19.8 points per game to secure the eighth-best ranking in points allowed. In terms of fantasy scoring surrendered, they gave up 78.4 full PPR fantasy points per game, ranking thirteenth in that category. That balanced 2025 production now carries into a 2026 schedule that Sharp ranks fourteenth in difficulty, suggesting a mid-pack slate of opponents for a team coming off a 13-4 record.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Jaguars established themselves as early-game specialists, ranking seventh in the league for points scored in the first quarter with an average of 5.6 points per game. This strong start translated effectively to fantasy production, as the unit posted the third-best full PPR output in the opening period with 22.5 FPavg. The offense maintained its momentum into the second quarter, where it ranked fourth in scoring at 9.2 points per game and seventh in fantasy points with 26.1 FPavg. While the defense allowed a modest 4.2 points in the first quarter, it tightened significantly in the second frame, permitting only 5.0 points per game to rank fourth best in the NFL during that span.

Performance dipped noticeably after halftime, particularly in the final period where the offense struggled to generate fantasy value. The team ranked last in the league for fourth-quarter fantasy production with just 17.2 FPavg, despite managing a middle-of-the-pack 6.4 points per game in real scoring. Defensively, the Jaguars were stout in the third quarter, allowing only 3.1 points per game to rank fourth, while also holding opponents to the second-lowest fantasy output of 13.7 FPavg. Defensive results deteriorated in the fourth quarter, as they surrendered 7.2 points per game and 26.8 FPavg, resulting in bottom-tier rankings of 21st and 30th respectively.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #15, Secondary #12.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season club-stint totals where midseason movers are patched to this club only (Greg Newsome II: Jacksonville stint after the Oct. 9 CLE trade — 29 tackles, 1 INT, 6 PD). Other rows match Jacksonville official-style combined totals.

Foye Oluokun led the club with 143 tackles; Josh Hines-Allen 8.0 sacks, Arik Armstead 5.5 sacks, Travon Walker 3.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Foye Oluokun: 5 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 11 PD; Andrew Wingard: 3 TFL, 1 INT, 9 PD; Devin Lloyd: 6 TFL, 1.5 sacks, 5 INT, 7 PD; Antonio Johnson: 2 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 5 INT, 9 PD; Eric Murray: 2 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD; Greg Newsome II (JAX stint): 1 INT, 6 PD.

Sharp projects the Jacksonville Jaguars’ defense to field a Front 7 ranked 15th and a Secondary ranked 12th, suggesting a unit that relies heavily on its back end for stability. Foye Oluokun anchored the linebacker corps with a team-high 143 combined tackles, adding five tackles for loss, one sack, one interception, and 11 passes defended. The pass rush featured Josh Hines-Allen leading the way with 8.0 sacks, while Arik Armstead contributed 5.5 sacks and Travon Walker added 3.5 sacks. In the secondary, Antonio Johnson recorded two tackles for loss, two sacks, five interceptions, and nine passes defended, providing a versatile threat alongside Eric Murray, who posted two tackles for loss, one sack, one interception, and six passes defended.

The defensive roster undergoes significant turnover with the departures of key contributors including linebacker Devin Lloyd, who logged six tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks, five interceptions, and seven passes defended before leaving for the Panthers. The Jaguars also lost safety Andrew Wingard to the Cardinals, cornerback Greg Newsome II to the Giants, and edge rusher Dawuane Smoot, along with interior linemen Maason Smith and Austin Johnson. To replenish the front, Jacksonville added Ruke Orhorhoro via trade as an interior defensive lineman and drafted Albert Regis at defensive tackle, Wesley Williams and Zach Durfee at defensive end, and Parker Hughes at linebacker (Hughes is already on Reserve/Injured). Jalen Huskey was selected as a safety to help shore up the secondary after these exits.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Cam Little: 30/34 FG, 50/51 PAT.

Logan Cooke led with 60 punts (22 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner LeQuint Allen Jr. (player KR yards only): 24 returns for 617 yards.

Punt returner Parker Washington (player PR yards only): 25 returns for 341 yards.

Special teams tackler Rayuan Lane III: 15 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs (solo + assists).

Cam Little anchored the scoring unit with high efficiency, converting 30 of 34 field goal attempts for an 88.2 percent success rate while missing only one extra point across 51 tries. His leg strength was evident in eight made kicks from 50 yards or longer, including a long of 68 yards. Logan Cooke handled the bulk of the punting duties, booting 60 times with zero blocks recorded. He placed 22 of those punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, helping to pin opposing offenses deep in their own territory.

LeQuint Allen Jr. served as the primary kickoff returner in 2025, accumulating 617 yards on 24 returns. Parker Washington managed the punt return role, gathering 341 yards on 25 attempts. On the coverage side, Rayuan Lane III led the group with 15 combined tackles on special teams plays. These individual contributions supported a unit that generated 1,591 total kickoff return yards and 356 punt return yards for the season. For 2026, Jacksonville’s current unofficial depth chart lists Bhayshul Tuten as KR1, LeQuint Allen Jr. as KR2, and Parker Washington as PR1.

Penalty Analysis

Jacksonville’s discipline profile presented a stark contradiction during their 13-4 campaign, as they ranked fourth-most in penalties per game despite reaching the postseason. Sharp flags Jacksonville’s unusually high penalty volume as a risk to sustaining its 13-4 performance; only three of the ten most penalized teams advanced last season. The Jaguars were particularly prone to flags on the road, ranking third in penalty frequency away from home, which poses a significant risk given their upcoming slate of eleven road or neutral site contests compared to just six true home games. They also surrendered the fifth-most penalty yards per contest. Separately, Sharp notes the offense ranked among the top three in penalties drawn against opponents — that is a positive for Jacksonville (opponent flags that help the Jaguars), not evidence that both units struggled to stay out of trouble.

On a more positive note, the offense improved dramatically in leveraging opponent mistakes, jumping from thirty-second in automatic first downs via penalty in 2024 to a top-ten finish in 2025. This marked the second-largest year-over-year improvement in that category. The defense also limited damage on critical downs, allowing only 25% of their surrendered automatic first downs via penalty to occur on third down, which is better than the league average of 30.9%. Furthermore, the team excelled at generating special teams penalties against opponents, finishing as a top-five producer in that area. However, the high volume of infractions on second down, where 35.2% of their penalties occurred, suggests that early-down discipline remains a vulnerability that could hinder their ability to repeat as division champions.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 73 penalties for 544 yards (#29) — 57% of the team's 127 penalties. Most common: False Start (25), Offensive Holding (23), Unnecessary Roughness (9). Most flags in Shotgun (20), Under Center (17), Pistol (2). Most flagged players: Patrick Mekari (8), Trevor Lawrence (7), Walker Little (7).

Defense: 54 penalties for 519 yards (#28) — 43% of team penalties. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (13), Defensive Holding (9), Unnecessary Roughness (7). Most flags in Cover 1 (15), Cover 3 (10), Cover 2 (6). Most flagged players: Jarrian Jones (7), Jourdan Lewis (5), Ventrell Miller (4).

Unnecessary Roughness is the clearest split example: nine on offense and seven on defense for a team total of 16. The other high-frequency types are mostly one-sided (false start and offensive holding on offense; DPI and defensive holding on defense). Shotgun accounted for 20 offensive flags, with under center next at 17. Cover 1 led defensive flag counts (15), ahead of Cover 3 (10) and Cover 2 (6). Patrick Mekari (eight) led the offense; Jarrian Jones (seven) led the defense.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the roster call — who to target, who to fade, and who inherits work from free agency and the draft.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Trevor Lawrence (19.8 FPavg), Travis Etienne (14.9 FPavg), Jakobi Meyers (12.0 FPavg), Parker Washington (11.5 FPavg), Brian Thomas Jr. (9.9 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP). Box Yds are yards on those rushes only — not season rushing yards.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Coverage Total-FP leaders: COVER 3 led by Brian Thomas Jr. 50; COVER 2 led by Parker Washington 52; COVER 1 led by Parker Washington 30; COVER 0 led by Parker Washington 21; COVER 4 led by Parker Washington 20; 2 MAN led by Trevor Lawrence 15; COVER 6 led by Brenton Strange 13; COVER 9 led by Brenton Strange 13.

Washington led Jacksonville in cumulative fantasy production against Cover 2 (52 FP), Cover 1 (30), Cover 0 (21), and Cover 4 (20). Brian Thomas Jr. led against Cover 3 (50 FP), the most frequent look at 32.1% of plays, while Washington posted 44 against that shell. Thomas also ranked near the top against Cover 0 and Cover 4. Those totals are season aggregates by coverage family, not single-game outbursts, and they do not establish per-route consistency without routes/targets/snaps within each shell.

Tight end Brenton Strange led the team against Cover 6 and Cover 9 with 13 points in each category. Those coverage families appeared less frequently (4.9% and 2.8% of plays). Quarterback Trevor Lawrence led scorers with 15 points against 2 MAN coverage (4.2% usage) and added 9 points against Cover 9. Coverage labels here are shell families only — they do not imply how many defenders rushed.

Running back production remains limited in the passing game data provided, with Travis Etienne recording 8 points against Cover 6. Chris Rodriguez Jr. arrives via free agency from Washington as a new backfield variable. The coverage table shows relatively little cumulative RB production outside Etienne’s Cover 6 total. With Etienne no longer on the roster, fantasy managers should monitor how target shares redistribute among the remaining skill players against the most common coverages like Cover 3 and Cover 2.

Skill adds: Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB — signed in free agency from Washington), Ameer Abdullah (RB).

Skill losses: Travis Etienne (RB) to the Saints, Tim Patrick (WR), Dyami Brown (WR) to the Commanders, Johnny Mundt (TE) to the Eagles, and Josh Cephus (WR).

Skill draft picks: Nate Boerkircher (TE, Rd 2, Texas A&M), Tanner Koziol (TE, Rd 5, Houston), Josh Cameron (WR, Rd 6, Baylor), and CJ Williams (WR, Rd 6, Stanford).

Trevor Lawrence remains the central fantasy asset for this offense, having posted a 19.8 full PPR average per game across 17 appearances in 2025. Lawrence averaged 19.8 FP/G against 22.9 xFP/G, meaning his opportunity profile supported roughly 3.1 more points per game than he realized. Among the pass-catchers, Jakobi Meyers led Jacksonville’s PBP fantasy sample with a 12.0 FPavg over nine games, while Parker Washington provided consistent volume with an 11.5 average over 15 games. Brian Thomas Jr. finished with a 9.9 average but carried a higher expected value of 13.2; after coming down on his shoulder August 25, he worked only individuals in a red non-contact jersey on August 26 and did not take 7-on-7 reps, though the team still expects him for Week 1. Tight end Brenton Strange also contributed meaningfully with a 9.8 average, establishing himself as a viable option in deeper leagues. Travis Hunter’s two-way role is the swing factor for receiver depth charts — defensive snaps can mute his weekly route volume even when he is healthy.

The running back landscape undergoes a major shift with the departure of Travis Etienne, who averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game last season. Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez Jr. are the primary 2026 competition for lead work; Tuten recorded a 5.9 average over 15 games in 2025, while Rodriguez arrives as a free-agency signing from Washington. Allen, Abdullah, and DeeJay Dallas provide veteran/depth and special-teams competition behind Tuten and Rodriguez. Allen missed the remainder of camp with a soft-tissue injury; his Week 1 status remains worth monitoring. Without a clear bell-cow established on the roster, fantasy managers should approach this position with caution until one player demonstrates dominance in preseason reps.

Receiving depth takes a hit with the exits of Tim Patrick, Dyami Brown, and Johnny Mundt, which opens targets for the existing core and new draft additions. The team selected Nate Boerkircher in the second round and Tanner Koziol in the fifth, both tight ends who could challenge for snaps behind Strange. Wide receivers Josh Cameron and CJ Williams, taken in the sixth round, add developmental depth but are unlikely to command immediate fantasy relevance. The mid-pack strength of schedule ranked 14th means weekly matchups will vary, requiring managers to stay agile with their start-sit decisions for Jaguars skill players.

Inside Scoop

Sharp’s overall grade for Jacksonville Jaguars is a B-. The forecast model projects 9.5 wins and a second-place finish in the division, reflecting a step back from the 13-4 record posted in 2025. Sharp identifies the secondary as the team's strongest unit, ranking it 12th league-wide, while the running backs are flagged as the weakest link at 29th. Sharp flags Jacksonville’s unusually high penalty volume as a risk to sustaining its 13-4 performance — only three of the ten most penalized teams advanced last season — especially with a schedule ranked 14th in difficulty, placing them firmly in the mid-pack of NFL opponents.

Despite the expected regression, the roster retains a viable core with Trevor Lawrence and head coach Liam Coen providing stability for the future. The team faces departures including Travis Etienne and Devin Lloyd, but adds Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Ruke Orhorhoro to address depth. These moves occur within a competitive AFC South landscape where Jacksonville remains a relevant contender despite the projected dip in win total. The combination of a solid foundational leadership group and a mid-tier strength of schedule keeps the Jaguars in the mix for the division title, even if replicating the previous year’s high win count proves difficult.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.