NFL 2026 PREVIEW: LAS VEGAS RAIDERS

Las Vegas spent 2025 as a 3-14 club that scored a league-worst 14.2 points per game, allowed 25.4 (25th), and matched that record against the spread at 3-14 while going 8-9 to the over. Sharp's preseason forecast projected them for 5.5 wins and fourth in the AFC West on a 17th-ranked schedule, and his betting snapshot priced them as an average 4.7-point underdog (4.0 at home, 5.3 on the road) in 14 of 17 games. Two games into 2026 they have already banked two of those wins — 27-13 over Miami and 26-14 at the Chargers — without Brock Bowers.

Klint Kubiak is a first-year head coach Sharp ranks 26th, taking over a quarterback room ranked 25th after Geno Smith left for the Jets. Kirk Cousins has started both games; Fernando Mendoza is developing behind him. The roster's strongest unit is the backfield at 14th; the weakest is a secondary ranked 30th. The 2026 question is whether Tyler Linderbaum, Cousins as the veteran bridge, and first-overall pick Mendoza can make last year's three-win tape look more like the floor of a rebuild than the identity of the franchise. Two weeks in, Las Vegas is already testing that premise.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Tyler Linderbaum (C), Kwity Paye (EDGE), Quay Walker (LB), Nakobe Dean (LB), Jalen Nailor (WR), Spencer Burford (RG), Connor Heyward (FB), Dareke Young (WR), and Matt Gay (K); Taron Johnson (CB) (via trade).

Key Departures: Dylan Parham (LG) to the Jets, Tyree Wilson (EDGE) to the Saints, Alex Cappa (RG), Daniel Carlson (K), Kenny Pickett (QB) to the Panthers, Geno Smith (QB) to the Jets, Elandon Roberts (LB), Stone Forsythe (LT) to the Panthers, Raheem Mostert (RB), Lonnie Johnson Jr. (S) to the Dolphins, Jacob Bobenmoyer (LS), Jamal Adams (S), Terrell Edmunds (S), Tyler Lockett (WR), Jakobi Meyers (WR) traded during 2025, Darnay Holmes (CB) to the Falcons, Devin White (LB), Zamir White (RB), Alex Bachman (WR), Kyu Blu Kelly (CB), and Jon Rhattigan (LB) to the Bears.

Las Vegas resets its sideline hierarchy with first-year head coach Klint Kubiak, whom Warren Sharp ranks 26th among head coaches entering the season. Kubiak pairs with first-year offensive coordinator Andrew Janocko after a three-win campaign that forced a full reset under center. Geno Smith left for the Jets and Kenny Pickett left for the Panthers; Las Vegas answered by signing Kirk Cousins as the veteran bridge and drafting Fernando Mendoza first overall. Up front, the interior offensive line gets a premier anchor with the free-agent signing of center Tyler Linderbaum, alongside guard Spencer Burford, after Dylan Parham left for the Jets, Alex Cappa departed, and Stone Forsythe exited to Carolina. The skill positions turn over as well. Tyler Lockett and Alex Bachman are gone, and Jakobi Meyers was traded away during the 2025 season. Jalen Nailor, Dareke Young, and fullback Connor Heyward arrive in free agency. In the backfield, Raheem Mostert and Zamir White leave the committee to Ashton Jeanty under Kubiak's wide-zone design.

Defensively, first-year coordinator Rob Leonard inherits a secondary Sharp ranks 30th and a front seven ranked 27th. Tyree Wilson left for the Saints, and the linebacker room lost Elandon Roberts, Devin White, and Jon Rhattigan, who joined the Bears. Las Vegas signed Kwity Paye in free agency to work the edge with Maxx Crosby, and signed Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean to play the second level. Taron Johnson arrived via trade to play nickel. Darnay Holmes left for the Falcons, Kyu Blu Kelly moved on, and safeties Jamal Adams, Terrell Edmunds, and Lonnie Johnson Jr., who joined the Dolphins, all exited. Those additions give Leonard starting-caliber names in the box and at nickel. Sharp still ranks the coverage group in the league's bottom three.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

The Raiders made the correct strategic call to select Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first overall pick. Mendoza is not a finished product, but Las Vegas needed a long-term answer after Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett left. Cousins opened the season as the veteran starter while Mendoza develops behind him, with Aidan O'Connell third. Sharp's read is that the veteran and the first-overall pick together were how Las Vegas tried to raise the floor and the ceiling at quarterback. The interior around that room added Tyler Linderbaum and Spencer Burford in free agency, with Texas A&M center Trey Zuhn III arriving in the third round at pick 91.

The rest of the class is built around a young secondary and trench depth. Eight of the ten drafted names landed on the initial 53-man roster. Auburn defensive end Keyron Crawford went on Reserve/Injured, and NC State defensive tackle Brandon Cleveland was waived and then signed to the practice squad. Hezekiah Masses has already moved past a later-round role: he started Week 2 for injured Darien Porter and intercepted Justin Herbert twice, two interceptions and three passes defensed through two games. Mike Washington Jr. is Jeanty's drafted complement, and Malik Benson is a perimeter bet who is also listed first on punt returns.

Sharp Forecasts Las Vegas Raiders with 5.5 Wins

Over Case: Sharp's over at 5.5 is a rebound from 3-14. His actual case starts with the trenches and the quarterback room. Las Vegas ranked 28th in pressure rate allowed and 32nd in yards per carry (3.6) in 2025; the club signed Tyler Linderbaum to a record center contract, inked Spencer Burford, drafted Trey Zuhn III in the third round, and gets Kolton Miller back at left tackle after an ankle injury ended his 2025 after Week 4. Even if Kirk Cousins only repeats last year's Atlanta level, Sharp writes that he would still be an upgrade over 2025 Geno Smith, and Mendoza is the upside pick. Bowers is still the receiving piece in that case, but he has not played in 2026, inactive for Weeks 1 and 2 with a knee injury after a 2025 season that already cost him the middle of the year. Kwity Paye, Quay Walker, and Nakobe Dean signed in free agency. Taron Johnson arrived via trade. If those pieces actually move the line of scrimmage and Bowers gets back on the field, 5.5 is reachable from a three-win floor.

Under Case: The under is the rest of the roster. Sharp lists a long climb to a competent offense: 30th in yards per play (4.4), 30th in success rate, 31st in EPA per play, 31st in points per drive (1.32), and 32nd in points per game (14.2). The wide receiver room is the thinnest group on the roster after Jakobi Meyers was traded during 2025, leaving Tre Tucker as the de facto No. 1 ahead of Dont'e Thornton Jr., Jalen Nailor, and Jack Bech. On defense, Las Vegas was 24th in points allowed per drive (2.27) and 25th in pressure rate; Paye's 9.7% pressure rate ranked 106th of 184 qualifiers, and the secondary received no ballot higher than 26th. Penalties actually worked in their favor in 2025 (sixth in net penalty EPA), which is a warning for the over rather than a foundation. The 5.5 is a modest number because the supporting cast around Mendoza, Jeanty, and Bowers is still thin on Sharp's grades.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -13 days.

Warren Sharp’s schedule timing metrics highlight a severe rest deficit for the Las Vegas Raiders across the 2026 season. Las Vegas ranks 30th in net rest edge, finishing at minus-13 net rest days versus its opponents. The club also sits near the bottom of the league in short-week road games, ranking 30th in that category, while landing 19th in games off road Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football and 19th in negated byes. At the same time, the board registers a prep rank of first and a rest rank of first, capturing the raw alignment of their calendar structure even as the cumulative rest ledger tilts heavily against them.

That deficit shows up clearly in Sharp's week-by-week rest edges, where the Raiders navigate five labeled weeks featuring a non-zero rest differential. While Las Vegas picks up a brief plus-one rest edge in Week 6 when hosting the Buffalo Bills, the calendar shifts dramatically in the other direction shortly thereafter. Week 9 presents a steep hurdle on the road against the San Francisco 49ers, where the Raiders face a minus-seven-day rest disparity. Those uneven recovery spots reinforce why the overall net rest disparity remains an uphill climb throughout the autumn slate.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Geno Smith (17 INT, 1 FL), Kenny Pickett (2 INT, 1 FL), Ashton Jeanty (1 FL), Dylan Laube (1 FL, special teams return). Takeaways: Kyu Blu Kelly (3 INT, 1 FR), Isaiah Pola-Mao (2 INT), Adam Butler (1 FR), Maxx Crosby (1 INT), Tyree Wilson (1 FR), Devin White (1 INT)

Las Vegas operated at a steep turnover deficit in 2025, coughing up 23 giveaways while generating only 16 takeaways for a minus-seven net. Ball security was an aerial problem. The offense lost just four fumbles, ranking third-fewest, but threw 19 interceptions and ranked 31st in that column. Geno Smith accounted for the bulk of that damage with 17 interceptions and a lost fumble; Kenny Pickett added two interceptions and one fumble lost. Ashton Jeanty lost one fumble on offense, and Dylan Laube lost another on a special teams return.

The defense finished 23rd in takeaways with eight interceptions (25th) and eight fumble recoveries. Kyu Blu Kelly paced the unit with three interceptions and a fumble recovery before leaving, while Devin White and Tyree Wilson each left after a takeaway of their own. Isaiah Pola-Mao (two interceptions), Adam Butler (one fumble recovery), and Maxx Crosby (one interception) remain.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Geno Smith 405 yards; Kenny Pickett 54 yards; Aidan O'Connell 5 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 57/599 ≈ 9.5% of shotgun plays; 7/315 ≈ 2.2% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Maxx Crosby (10), Malcolm Koonce (4.5), Tyree Wilson (4), Jonah Laulu (4)

Pass protection unraveled completely for the Raiders in 2025, surrendering 64 sacks to rank 32nd in the league. Geno Smith absorbed the vast majority of that punishment, losing 405 yards across his takedowns before departing for the Jets. From a structural standpoint, 57 sacks occurred across 599 shotgun plays, which represents 9.5% of all snaps run from the gun, including rushes. Under center, Las Vegas yielded seven sacks across 315 total plays, accounting for 2.2% of snaps from that alignment. Warren Sharp ranks the Raiders offensive line 25th heading into 2026 as the unit attempts to reset its baseline protection.

On the other side of the ball, the defense collected 37 sacks to finish 18th in total takedowns. Maxx Crosby spearheaded the pass rush once again with a team-leading 10 sacks, flanked by Malcolm Koonce with 4.5. Tyree Wilson and Jonah Laulu each chipped in four sacks to round out the top group before Wilson departed for the Saints. Las Vegas logged 26 of its 37 sacks with four rushers, six when sending six, and three with five. From the back end, those finishes clustered primarily in Cover 3 with 10 sacks and Cover 1 with nine, alongside seven in Cover 2, six in Cover 4, three in Cover 6, and two in Cover 9.

Return Touchdowns

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 3 (#31) — Jaylin Lane (punt return), Marvin Mims Jr. (punt return), and Deonte Banks (kickoff return).

Kickoff returner Dylan Laube: 33 returns for 855 yards.

Punt returner Alex Bachman: 22 returns for 124 yards.

Punt returns 29 for 173 yards; kickoff returns 68 for 1845 yards.

Las Vegas scored zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns in 2025, with Dylan Laube taking 33 kickoffs for 855 yards and Alex Bachman 22 punts for 124 yards before leaving.

Opponents scored three return touchdowns against Las Vegas, ranking the Raiders 31st by that count: Jaylin Lane and Marvin Mims Jr. on punts, Deonte Banks on a kickoff. Malik Benson is the listed punt returner in 2026.

Penalties

Offense: 55 penalties for 400 yards (#8). Most common: Offensive Holding (17), False Start (15), Delay of Game (7). Most flags in Shotgun (13), Under Center (10), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Dylan Parham (5), Tre Tucker (4), Stone Forsythe (4).

Defense: 53 penalties for 501 yards (#25), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 2 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Unnecessary Roughness (5), Defensive Offside (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (10), Cover 3 (9), Cover 0 (2). Most flagged players: Maxx Crosby (7), Devin White (4), Thomas Booker (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

On the offensive side of the ball, Las Vegas showed reliable operational discipline throughout 2025. The offense was assessed 55 penalties for 400 yards, finishing with the eighth-fewest offensive infractions on the HackingDFS scale, where a number-one rank denotes the fewest flags. The most common calls were offensive holding (17), false start (15), and delay of game (7). Most of those flags came from shotgun (13), then under center (10), with one from pistol. Dylan Parham led the offense with five flags, ahead of Tre Tucker and Stone Forsythe at four apiece.

The defense surrendered 53 penalties for 501 yards, ranking 25th, a total that also includes four offensive holding calls on punt returns and two illegal formation flags on kickoffs or PATs. The most common defensive flags were defensive pass interference (9), unnecessary roughness (5), and defensive offside (5). Cover 1 led the shells with 10 flags, then Cover 3 with nine and Cover 0 with two. Maxx Crosby led the listed names with seven flags; Devin White and Thomas Booker had four each. Overall, Las Vegas closed at 108 penalties for 901 yards, 16th in the league.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 694 plays, 37.5% success, -0.17 EPA/play (#32). Most efficient on early downs: Ian Thomas (10 plays, 0.54 EPA/play), Brock Bowers (66 plays, 0.36 EPA/play), Jakobi Meyers (31 plays, 0.20 EPA/play). Those player counts are plays, not targets or designed touches.

Red Zone: 117 plays, 34.2% success, -0.16 EPA/play (#31). Most efficient in the red zone: Brock Bowers (18 plays, 0.53 EPA/play), Tre Tucker (11 plays, 0.19 EPA/play), Ashton Jeanty (45 plays, -0.11 EPA/play). Those player counts are plays, not targets or designed touches.

Las Vegas ranked last in early-down EPA per play at -0.17 and 31st in the red zone at -0.16. Ian Thomas posted the highest listed early-down EPA per play at 0.54, but on only 10 plays. Bowers carried the more substantial sample at 0.36 across 66 plays, with Meyers at 0.20 on 31.

Bowers had the highest listed red-zone EPA per play at 0.53 on 18 plays. Tre Tucker added 0.19 on 11 plays, while Ashton Jeanty's 45 plays were the largest listed sample at -0.11. Kubiak inherits the league's worst early-down EPA and next-to-last red-zone EPA.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -1.4 (#16); they passed 52.4% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Geno Smith (42.1% success on 503 pass plays), Kenny Pickett (26.9% success on 52 pass plays), Aidan O'Connell (34.8% success on 23 pass plays).

On rushes: Ashton Jeanty (31.8% success on 267 rush plays), Geno Smith (45.7% success on 35 rush plays), Raheem Mostert (31.8% success on 22 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

The overall offense finished fourth in pass rate at 61.4% on 578 pass plays, while neutral-down PROE was -1.4 (16th) on a 52.4% pass share. Those dropbacks still produced 4.94 yards per pass play (29th) and a 40.5% success rate. Geno Smith paced the passing group at a 42.1% success rate across 503 pass plays before leaving for the Jets.

The ground game finished 32nd in both yards per rush play (3.63) and team rush success rate (33.0%) on 364 rush plays. Jeanty's 31.8% play-by-play success on 267 rush plays matched Raheem Mostert's small-sample clip; Smith's 45.7% on 35 scramble and designed runs was the PBP high. Jeanty's NFL+ success rate on official carries is a separate 32.0% figure.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

On offense, the Raiders generated 42 explosive plays for 1,258 yards, ranking 29th. Almost all of that chunk yardage came through the air: 37 explosive completions for 1,062 yards against five explosive runs for 196. Tre Tucker and Brock Bowers supplied the receiving chunk plays; Ashton Jeanty was the only back with multiple explosive rushes. The coverage beaten most often was Cover 1, then Cover 3. Jalen Nailor is the 2026 perimeter bet against that 2025 limitation; Bowers has not played through two weeks.

Defensively, Las Vegas allowed 46 explosives for 1,500 yards, the third-fewest in the league. Opponents still found 37 explosive passes for 1,209 yards. Cover 3 accounted for 20 of the allowed explosives, the largest raw total among the listed shells, with Cover 2 next at eight for 235.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Las Vegas lived in 11 personnel in 2025, running 547 three-wide plays at 1.28 full-PPR points per play. Twelve personnel (333 plays) and 13 personnel (56) were the heavier looks around Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. Shotgun was 63.6% of the snaps. The 2026 three-wide question is who replaces Jakobi Meyers and Tyler Lockett among Jalen Nailor, Dareke Young, Tre Tucker, Dont'e Thornton Jr., and Jack Bech. The tight end room stays Bowers and Mayer. Connor Heyward signed as a fullback.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #22; play-action rank #6 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Motion ranked 22nd in usage rate and play action ranked sixth, with play-action snaps carrying the higher success rate and the higher fantasy points per play. Kubiak's wide-zone identity is why play action is worth watching in 2026.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The 2025 Las Vegas passing attack finished near the bottom of the league: 81.5 passer rating (28th), 6.4 yards per attempt (27th), 9.8 yards per completion (30th), a 3.9% touchdown rate (26th), and a 3.7% interception rate (30th). Geno Smith absorbed the bulk of that work at -0.17 EPA per dropback despite +1.6% CPOE across 15 DraftKings-tracked games (13.5 average, 9.0 floor, 26.1 ceiling, zero Slate Hits). Among 33 qualified quarterbacks, Sharp had him 31st in EPA per play and 30th in success rate.

Smith left for the Jets and Kenny Pickett left for the Panthers. Las Vegas replaced them with Kirk Cousins and first-overall pick Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza's final college season completed 72% of his passes (94th percentile among prospects since 2000), posted a 41-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio (92nd percentile), and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt (84th percentile). Cousins opened the season as the veteran starter while Mendoza acclimates. Warren Sharp ranks the quarterback room 25th, even with that two-pronged approach.

Cousins has already given that bridge plan a strong first return: nearly 68% completions, 413 yards and six touchdowns through two starts, with three scores in each win.

Kolton Miller is back at left tackle after the Week 4 ankle. Tyler Linderbaum, Spencer Burford, and third-round center Trey Zuhn III are the interior additions on an offensive line Sharp also ranks 25th. Kubiak's wide-zone, play-action identity is supposed to give this passing game answers that 2025 Smith never had.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Las Vegas enters 2026 with the thinnest wide receiver room on the roster after Jakobi Meyers was traded away during the 2025 season. Warren Sharp ranks the receiving corps 29th. Tre Tucker became the de facto No. 1: 92 targets in 17 games, +20.3 Receiving EPA, a 15.9% NFL+ target share, 10.3 air yards per target, 75 early-down targets, and 10 red-zone looks. Sharp's counting line on Tucker is 57 catches, 696 yards, and five touchdowns. Dont'e Thornton Jr. (30 targets, 17.6 air yards, -15.1 Rec EPA) and Jack Bech (29 targets, 8.9 air yards, -4.7 Rec EPA) are the unproven options behind him.

The tight end room still posted the best receiving EPA. Brock Bowers drew 86 targets and +23.1 Receiving EPA in 12 games after the PCL injury that cost him the middle of the 2025 season, including 18 red-zone looks and 64 early-down looks, while Michael Mayer added 50 targets on a 4.4-air-yard average with six red-zone looks. Ashton Jeanty chipped in 60 early-down targets and 10 red-zone looks from the backfield, with Ian Thomas (13) and Albert Okwuegbunam (six) as the remainder. Bowers missed the first two games with the knee injury, though Kubiak said Monday that he will return to practice this week.

Jalen Nailor's last club was Minnesota: 53 targets, 12.8% TGT%, 13.1 air yards, +8.8 Rec EPA, 13 red-zone looks, and four receiving touchdowns in 17 games. Dareke Young arrives from Seattle, and sixth-rounder Malik Benson is the drafted perimeter bet and the listed punt returner. The 2026 question is whether Nailor, Thornton, and Bech can command enough respect for Bowers to live up to his usage once he is back on the field.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Las Vegas leaned on Ashton Jeanty across a 17-game campaign, feeding him 266 rushing attempts. Operating behind a line that Sharp says contacted him at or behind the line of scrimmage on 54% of carries, the league's second-worst rate, Jeanty generated a -66.7 Rush EPA, -0.2 rushing yards over expected per attempt, and a 32.0% NFL+ success rate on official carries. When he crossed the line without contact, he averaged 6.8 yards per carry, 16th of 48 qualifiers. In the red zone he handled 35 carries and 10 targets, 45 opportunities, and seven total red-zone touchdowns. Raheem Mostert was the complementary eight-game sample (22 carries, -9.7 Rush EPA, +0.6 RYOE, 36.4% success) before leaving with Zamir White.

Warren Sharp ranks the 2026 running back room 14th, the highest unit grade on this roster, because voters kept believing in Jeanty's talent more than the 2025 blocking. Mike Washington Jr. (pick 122) is the drafted complement. The 2026 bet is the interior: Linderbaum, Burford, Zuhn, and Miller's return on an offensive line ranked 25th. If first-level contact drops, Jeanty's untouched average is the tape that matters. If it does not, 266 attempts behind the same second-worst contact rate is just another heavy workload. The first two games have not settled the blocking question: Jeanty opened with 102 yards on 23 carries against Miami, then managed 48 on 21 against the Chargers, and Washington added 41 yards on seven carries in Week 1.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Ashton Jeanty 10 (5 rush, 5 rec); Brock Bowers 7 rec; Tre Tucker 5 rec. Passing TDs: Geno Smith 19, Kenny Pickett 1. Defense TDs: none in the nflverse season table. Special teams: Daniel Carlson 22/27 FG, 21/22 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

The Raiders relied on a tight circle of skill talent to generate their scoring last season, paced by Ashton Jeanty's ten total touchdowns split evenly with five on the ground and five through the air. Brock Bowers hauled in seven receiving touchdowns; Tre Tucker added five. Geno Smith threw 19 touchdown passes and Kenny Pickett threw one.

Beyond those primary skill producers, Las Vegas found almost no supplemental scoring from the defense or special teams, and Daniel Carlson converted 22 of 27 field goals and 21 of 22 extra points before leaving. That concentrated output is the 2025 scoring picture.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Las Vegas struggled to generate early offense throughout 2025, landing near the bottom of the league across the first three quarters. The team scored its fewest points in the third quarter, averaging 2.4 points per game (ranked 31st) alongside 14.0 full-PPR fantasy points (ranked 27th). The first quarter was nearly as barren, producing 2.7 points (ranked 30th) and 14.3 fantasy points (ranked 29th). Even with a slight bump to 3.5 points in the second quarter, that output still ranked dead last at 32nd in the NFL, paired with 15.5 fantasy points (ranked 31st). It was only in the fourth quarter that the offense found its highest volume, posting 5.2 points (ranked 28th) and 21.0 fantasy points per game (ranked 21st).

Defensively, opponents scored the most in the second quarter, 7.5 real points (19th on the fewest-allowed scale) and 25.5 opponent fantasy points (23rd). The third quarter stayed ugly: 6.7 points allowed (30th) and 18.9 fantasy points allowed (20th). The opening frame was 5.2 points allowed (23rd). Late in games the defensive numbers held up better relative to the league, conceding 5.6 fourth-quarter points (eighth-fewest allowed) and 19.2 opponent fantasy points (ninth-fewest allowed).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #27, Secondary #30.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Devin White led the club with 174 tackles; Maxx Crosby 10.0 sacks, Malcolm Koonce 4.5 sacks, Jonah Laulu 4.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Devin White: 11 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD; Jeremy Chinn: 3 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 2 PD; Isaiah Pola-Mao: 4 TFL, 2 INT, 4 PD; Elandon Roberts: 6 TFL, 1 PD; Maxx Crosby: 28 TFL, 10.0 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD; Eric Stokes: 3 TFL, 5 PD; Malcolm Koonce: 6 TFL, 4.5 sacks; Jonah Laulu: 8 TFL, 4.0 sacks, 5 PD.

Maxx Crosby remains the standard along the defensive front after racking up 73 tackles, 28 tackles for loss, 10.0 sacks, and 20 quarterback hits in 2025. Jonah Laulu supplied 51 tackles, eight tackles for loss, and 4.0 sacks; Adam Butler posted 50 tackles and Thomas Booker added 44 stops with seven quarterback hits. Substantial production walks out at the second level: Devin White led the squad with 174 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, and 2.5 sacks, and Elandon Roberts contributed 90 tackles. Jon Rhattigan left for the Bears, and Tyree Wilson left for the Saints. Las Vegas signed Kwity Paye in free agency and signed Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean to play the second level next to Crosby. Sharp still ranks the front seven 27th. Paye's 9.7% pressure rate ranked 106th of 184 qualifiers; the 2025 non-blitz pressure rate was 30.7%, 25th in the league.

Coverage is the more vulnerable phase, with the secondary ranked 30th. Kyu Blu Kelly paced the group with three interceptions and six passes defensed before departing. Isaiah Pola-Mao returns after 92 tackles, four tackles for loss, two interceptions, and four passes defensed; Jeremy Chinn is back after a 114-tackle campaign. Eric Stokes broke up five passes and Darien Porter defensed three. Jamal Adams, Terrell Edmunds, Lonnie Johnson Jr., and Darnay Holmes are gone. Taron Johnson arrived via trade to play nickel, and the draft added Treydan Stukes plus later-round corners. Sharp calls a young secondary a long-term hope and a short-term risk. The unit received no ballot higher than 26th.

Those ranks are the preseason snapshot. Two games have opened better than that profile: five takeaways already, more than a quarter of the 16 from all of 2025, while holding Miami to 13 points and the Chargers to 14. Against Los Angeles, Herbert was hit nine times, sacked twice, and turned it over three times; Masses had the two interceptions and Nakobe Dean forced the Hampton fumble. Two weeks are the first live tape against that snapshot.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Opposing passing attacks found their steadiest production when Las Vegas sat in Cover 3. The Raiders logged 226 snaps in that shell and allowed 483 full-PPR fantasy points, 2.14 per snap, ranking 29th. Cover 1 was next at 1.95 per snap across 82 snaps, 21st. Cover 2 (1.50 per snap, eighth) and Cover 4 (1.35, fifth) were stingier in two-high. Cover 0 allowed 3.29 fantasy points per play over 25 snaps and ranked 11th. Those are 2025 points allowed by coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Daniel Carlson: 22/27 FG, 21/22 PAT.

AJ Cole led with 71 punts (24 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Dylan Laube: 33 returns for 855 yards.

Punt returner Alex Bachman: 22 returns for 124 yards.

Special teams tackler Tommy Eichenberg: 23 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Daniel Carlson converted 22 of 27 field goals (81.5%) and 21 of 22 extra points in 2025, with a long of 60 and five makes from 50-plus, then left. Matt Gay is the 2026 kicker. AJ Cole remains at 71 of the team's 72 punts, 24 inside the 20, against two blocks, with Tommy Eichenberg leading special-teams tackling at 23 combined tackles.

Dylan Laube took 33 kickoff returns for 855 yards and is still the kickoff returner, while punt returns fell largely to Alex Bachman (22 for 124) before leaving and Malik Benson is listed first after a 23-yard return in Week 1.

Penalty Analysis

Warren Sharp hands the Raiders a C for their Penalties & Discipline grade, reflecting a split profile that paired respectable baseline restraint with ugly situational timing. Las Vegas tied for 15th in penalties per game last season, landing in the middle of the league, and finished in the bottom third in penalties per game at home.

The deeper situational splits are the problem. Sharp ranks them as a top-five penalized team in fourth-quarter penalties, a different classification from the HackingDFS Defense fewest-flags rank. Defensively, half of the automatic first downs the Raiders surrendered occurred on third down, far exceeding the NFL average of 31.6%. Special teams ranked as a top-three penalized unit. When the offense did draw defensive pass interference, the average gain was nine yards per beneficial call. Late-clock miscues and third-down infractions are the 2026 discipline question for Kubiak.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 55 penalties for 400 yards (#8). Most common: Offensive Holding (17), False Start (15), Delay of Game (7). Most flags in Shotgun (13), Under Center (10), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Dylan Parham (5), Tre Tucker (4), Stone Forsythe (4).

Defense: 53 penalties for 501 yards (#25), including 4 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 2 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (9), Unnecessary Roughness (5), Defensive Offside (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (10), Cover 3 (9), Cover 0 (2). Most flagged players: Maxx Crosby (7), Devin White (4), Thomas Booker (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Offensive flags for Las Vegas were heavily concentrated at the line of scrimmage, headed by 17 offensive holding infractions and 15 false starts. Operational resets also cost the offense, resulting in seven delay of game penalties, alongside two illegal formation assessments and two unnecessary roughness infractions.

Defensive penalties were headlined by nine defensive pass interference infractions, plus five unnecessary roughness penalties, five defensive offside infractions, four encroachment whistles, and four face mask calls.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Brock Bowers TE2, Ashton Jeanty RB8.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Brock Bowers (14.5 FPavg), Ashton Jeanty (14.4 FPavg), Geno Smith (11.5 FPavg), Jakobi Meyers (9.7 FPavg), Tre Tucker (9.5 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker, and Ashton Jeanty were the 2025 full-PPR scoring leaders against the coverages Las Vegas saw most often. Bowers led the Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 0 samples, Tucker led Cover 3, Cover 4, and 2 Man, and Jeanty was the second-highest scorer against Cover 3, Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 0. Tyler Lockett led the small Cover 6 sample before leaving. Those are cumulative 2025 fantasy-point totals by coverage.

Skill adds: Jalen Nailor (WR), Connor Heyward (FB), and Dareke Young (WR).

Skill losses: Kenny Pickett (QB) to the Panthers, Geno Smith (QB) to the Jets, Raheem Mostert (RB), Tyler Lockett (WR), Jakobi Meyers (WR) traded during 2025, Zamir White (RB), and Alex Bachman (WR).

Skill draft picks: Fernando Mendoza (QB, Rd 1, Indiana), Mike Washington Jr. (RB, Rd 4, Arkansas), and Malik Benson (WR, Rd 6, Oregon).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Brock Bowers, 12 Las Vegas games: 15.2 DKavg, 9.6 floor, 22.3 ceiling, three Slate Hits, $6,000, 2.58 FP/$. He led the club at 14.5 full-PPR FPavg with 86 targets, 18 red-zone looks, and +23.1 Receiving EPA. Sharp ranks him TE2. That is a GPP/Cash 2025 archetype, not a 2026 weekly recommendation.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Ashton Jeanty, 17 games: 15.4 DKavg, 8.3 floor, 24.8 ceiling, four Slate Hits, $6,500, 2.38 FP/$. The 266-carry workload, seven red-zone touchdowns on 45 opportunities, and 14.4 FPavg are the Cash case. The 24.8 ceiling and four hits are the GPP shape. Sharp ranks him RB8.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Tre Tucker, 17 games: 9.7 DKavg, 5.0 floor, 13.4 ceiling, one Slate Hit, $4,700, 2.22 FP/$. Ninety-two targets and +20.3 Rec EPA are real volume. The 5.0 floor keeps it GPP.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Kirk Cousins's last club was Atlanta. In 10 DraftKings games he averaged 12.2 points with a 4.5 floor, a 20.6 ceiling, one Slate Hit, and a $4,500 median salary (2.63 FP/$). NFL+ from that sample is -0.06 EPA per dropback and -1.7% CPOE, and Sharp writes that even repeating that level would be an upgrade over 2025 Geno Smith. That is a GPP prior-club archetype, not a 2026 weekly recommendation.

Jalen Nailor's last club was Minnesota: 17 games, 53 targets, 12.8% TGT%, 13.1 air yards, +8.8 Rec EPA, a 6.1 DraftKings average, a 0.0 floor, a 9.4 ceiling, one Slate Hit at $3,400. Dareke Young's last club was Seattle: three DraftKings games, a 2.3 average, a 0.0 floor, a 4.6 ceiling, zero Slate Hits at $3,000. Connor Heyward's last club was Pittsburgh: 11 games, a 2.5 average, a 0.2 floor, a 7.5 ceiling, zero Slate Hits at $2,500. Mendoza has no 2025 NFL salary sample.

Inside Scoop

Las Vegas bottomed out at 3-14 a year ago, and very little about that tape suggested a club that was unlucky rather than incomplete. Sharp's preseason forecast projected Las Vegas for 5.5 wins and fourth place in the AFC West, which is a modest bet that the rebuild now has a direction: Klint Kubiak, Tyler Linderbaum, Kirk Cousins as the bridge, and Fernando Mendoza with the first pick. The defense kept Maxx Crosby and signed Kwity Paye, Quay Walker, and Nakobe Dean in free agency. Taron Johnson arrived via trade, but Sharp still ranks the secondary 30th and the front seven 27th. The pieces that make 3-14 look unfinished are Ashton Jeanty if first-level contact actually drops, an interior that was 28th in pressure allowed a year ago, and Brock Bowers when he is able to play.

Two games have already tested that bet. Las Vegas is 2-0 without Bowers after beating Miami 27-13 and the Chargers 26-14, and Cousins has thrown six touchdowns in those two starts. Jeanty piled up 147 scrimmage yards and two receiving scores in the opener, Tucker added 119 yards and a touchdown in Week 2, and the defense has five takeaways through two games, including Masses intercepting Herbert twice. That does not finish the argument, but a club that scored 14.2 points per game a year ago has already posted 27 and 26 without the tight end Sharp ranks TE2.

That is why the Raiders remain live in this preview series even as a long-shot. Sharp's preseason snapshot installed them as favorites in only three games with a 4.7-point average underdog line, 4.0 at home and 5.3 on the road. Their 3-14 ATS record matched the standings, and an 8-9 record to the over said games split near the total rather than collapsing under it. From a DFS perspective, the 2025 profiles tell a two-track story: Bowers and Jeanty showed floor-plus-ceiling combinations that fit GPP/Cash archetypes, while Tucker's volume sat in a more volatile GPP shape and Cousins' Atlanta sample was tournament-shaped. Those are historical profiles rather than weekly 2026 recommendations. Las Vegas does not need to pretend 3-14 was a mirage. If Cousins keeps the offense moving, Jeanty keeps finding yards, and the defense keeps taking the ball, last year's three-win season can look like the last year of a roster that had no plan rather than the new normal.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.