NFL 2026 PREVIEW: LOS ANGELES RAMS

The Los Angeles Rams enter the 2026 campaign with high expectations following a dominant 12-5 season where they led the league in scoring at 30.5 points per game. Warren Sharp’s forecast projects 11.5 wins and a first-place division finish, suggesting this roster remains elite despite facing the fifth-hardest schedule in the NFL, ranked 28th on a scale where 32 is most difficult. The 2026 outlook highlights a top-tier head coaching unit as the team’s strongest asset. Running back is Sharp’s lowest-ranked Rams position group, but it still ranks sixth league-wide. Significant roster turnover includes the departure of key contributors like Rob Havenstein and Jared Verse, balanced by major additions such as Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie — and, after the book window closed, Aaron Donald's August 30 return from retirement. This preview analyzes how these changes impact a team that finished 15-2 against the spread last year.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Aaron Donald (DT — unretired and rejoined Rams August 30; began with individual drills as Los Angeles ramps him back into football activity); Jaylen Watson (CB), Grant Stuard (LB), and Joe Cardona (LS); Myles Garrett (EDGE) (via trade) and Trent McDuffie (CB) (via trade).

Key Departures: Rob Havenstein (RT), Cobie Durant (CB) to the Cowboys, Jared Verse (EDGE — traded to the Browns in the Myles Garrett deal), Jimmy Garoppolo (QB), D.J. Humphries (T), Roger McCreary (CB) to the Lions, Derion Kendrick (CB) to the Cowboys, Jake McQuaide (LS), Nick Vannett (TE), Troy Reeder (LB), Nick Hampton (EDGE) to the Panthers, and Jarquez Hunter (RB) to the Dolphins (sent in the August 27 trade that returned Tutu Atwell).

Unavailable / status: Keagen Trost (OL — Reserve/Injured, hamstring); Justin Dedich (OL — Reserve/Injured); Puka Nacua (WR — active roster, psoas issue; Week 1 status remains uncertain; also remains under NFL conduct review, with no suspension announced as of August 31); Alaric Jackson (LT — active roster; availability remains subject to ongoing NFL conduct review, with no suspension announced as of August 31); Myles Garrett (EDGE — active roster, knee issue; Week 1 status remains uncertain).

The Los Angeles Rams enter 2026 with a coaching structure anchored by Sean McVay, who is in his tenth season and holds the top head-coach ranking according to Sharp’s assessment. The most significant shift on staff comes on offense, where Nate Scheelhaase takes over as offensive coordinator in his first season, replacing Mike LaFleur as OC while McVay remains the primary offensive play-caller within his established system. On the other side of the ball, Chris Shula remains the defensive coordinator for his third season, providing continuity despite substantial roster turnover. This stability at the top of the depth chart contrasts with the aggressive reshuffling of personnel, suggesting the organization trusts its core leadership to integrate new pieces quickly rather than overhaul the entire philosophical approach.

Personnel changes are significant on both sides of the ball, highlighted by major acquisitions via trade, free agency, and late-summer roster moves. The defense adds elite talent with Myles Garrett arriving via trade to bolster the edge rush, alongside cornerback Trent McDuffie (also via trade), free-agent signings Jaylen Watson and Grant Stuard, and — most recently — Aaron Donald, who unretired and rejoined the Rams on August 30 and is on the initial 53-man roster. Donald began his return with individual drills on August 30 as Los Angeles ramps him back into football activity. Joe Cardona joins as the long snapper. These additions must compensate for notable departures, including the loss of longtime starting right tackle Rob Havenstein and veteran tackle depth in D.J. Humphries (Alaric Jackson started all 16 games he played at left tackle in 2025; Humphries appeared in eight games and started once). The interior line still returns Avila, Shelton, and Dotson, with Warren McClendon in the tackle mix, so the OL turnover is real but less catastrophic than a dual starting-tackle wipeout. The secondary sees significant churn with Cobie Durant leaving for the Cowboys, Roger McCreary departing for the Lions, and other cornerbacks exiting the roster, while Jared Verse heads to the Browns. On offense, L.A. re-acquired Tutu Atwell from Miami on August 27 (sending RB Jarquez Hunter the other way); Atwell made the initial 53. Quarterback depth shifts as Jimmy Garoppolo leaves the team. For bettors and fantasy managers, the key takeaway is how the returning OL core plus new tackle depth supports the running game — Sharp’s lowest-ranked Rams position group, but still sixth league-wide — and whether Donald, Garrett, and the upgraded secondary pieces can raise an already strong defense against a schedule ranked as the fifth-hardest in the league.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

The Rams used the 13th overall pick on Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, a selection Sharp draft analyst Ryan McCrystal characterizes as a significant long-term gamble given the immediate presence of Matthew Stafford. Simpson is expected to remain on the bench for the 2026 season and likely beyond, which raises concerns about his development after sitting for three years at Alabama and attempting just over 500 passes since high school. Sharp notes that while Simpson’s route-adjusted on-target rate was 3.5% above expected last year, ranking 15th among power-conference quarterbacks, he struggled with decision-making under pressure. Specifically, Sharp points out that Simpson generated -1 EPA or worse on 32% of his dropbacks when pressured, a mark that ranked 47th out of 78 qualified peers. The stability of the Los Angeles coaching staff may help mold Simpson into a more mobile version of Stafford. McCrystal questions the immediate return on using the No. 13 pick on a developmental quarterback behind Stafford. The Rams’ initial 53 also lists Stetson Bennett IV and Simpson, while the Week 1 QB2 decision between Bennett and Simpson had not been publicly settled as of late August.

To support the offense and protect the quarterback, Los Angeles added Ohio State tight end Max Klare in the second round and Missouri tackle Keagen Trost in the third. These selections aimed to bolster the passing-game infrastructure, though final-cut status matters for 2026 availability: Trost is on Reserve/Injured and is not immediate active-roster depth. The team also addressed defensive line depth later in the draft by selecting Alabama defensive tackle Tim Keenan III in the seventh round, a shade/2-technique interior prospect — Keenan was waived after final cuts and signed to the practice squad. The Rams rounded out the class with Miami (FL) wide receiver CJ Daniels in the sixth round. While the first-round choice draws scrutiny for its lack of immediate utility, the mid-to-late rounds provided targeted draft capital for the offensive line, tight end room, and defensive front; neither currently projects as active Week 1 depth: Trost is on Reserve/Injured, while Keenan begins the season on the practice squad.

Sharp Forecasts Los Angeles Rams with 11.5 Wins

Over Case: The Los Angeles Rams enter the 2026 season with a win total set at 11.5, backed by an offense that dominated efficiency metrics in 2025. Matthew Stafford is coming off an MVP campaign where he led a unit that ranked first in yards per play at 6.2, first in success rate, and first in EPA per play. The scoring output was equally potent, as the team finished first in points per drive at 2.78 and first in points per game at 30.5. This production was supported by a returning core that includes receivers Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, a deep group of tight ends, and the running back duo of Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. The team also benefited from exceptional discipline, ranking first in penalty margin and net penalty EPA while allowing the fewest accepted penalties and total penalty yards in the league. With Sharp ranking the head coach as the number one unit in the NFL, the strategic leadership complements a roster that posted a 12-5 record last season.

The path to clearing this high win total is complicated by a brutal schedule and significant roster turnover. Sharp ranks the strength of schedule at 28 on a scale where 32 is hardest, marking it as the fifth-most difficult slate in the league. The Rams face a balanced rest disadvantage, playing five games with less rest than their opponents and five with more, leaving little margin for error in preparation. Compounding the challenge is the loss of key contributors via departure, including longtime starting RT Rob Havenstein and veteran tackle depth in D.J. Humphries, along with defensive starters Jared Verse (traded to Cleveland in the Garrett deal), Cobie Durant, Roger McCreary, and Derion Kendrick. Special teams and depth losses include Jake McQuaide, Nick Vannett, Troy Reeder, and Nick Hampton, while Jimmy Garoppolo also left in free agency and Jarquez Hunter was traded to Miami. To counter these exits, the team added Myles Garrett, Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Grant Stuard, and Joe Cardona, re-acquired Tutu Atwell from the Dolphins, and — after Sharp's book was locked — welcomed Aaron Donald back from retirement onto the initial 53. Despite finishing first in the division projection, the combination of the fifth-hardest schedule and the need to replace multiple starters creates a volatile environment for hitting the over on 11.5 wins.

Schedule Timing & Rest

The Los Angeles Rams face a demanding calendar that ranks among the league's most difficult, with Sharp placing their schedule strength at 28th on a scale where 32 represents the hardest slate. This challenging backdrop is compounded by unfavorable rest metrics: Sharp ranks the Rams 29th in net rest edge and 19th in Rest, while their −6 cumulative rest-day total ranks 25th. Sharp’s week-by-week rest edges highlight specific volatility rather than consistent recovery advantages, noting ten weeks where a labeled rest edge occurs. The data reveals significant disparities, such as a severe seven-day disadvantage in Week 8 against the Chargers at home and a six-day deficit in Week 15 versus the Cowboys at home. Conversely, the Rams secure modest three-day advantages in Week 2 against the Giants and Week 14 against the 49ers, but these positive spikes do not offset the broader trend of limited recovery time throughout the season.

Sharp ranks the Rams 13th in prep, 15th in negated-bye impact, 24th in short-week road games and 26th in games following road SNF/MNF. The weekly breakdown shows multiple instances of negative rest edges on the road, including a one-day deficit in Week 3 against Denver and another in Week 16 against Seattle. Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Matthew Stafford (8 INT, 3 FL), Kyren Williams (2 FL), Colby Parkinson (1 FL), Puka Nacua (1 FL). Takeaways: Cobie Durant (3 INT, 1 FR), Kamren Kinchens (2 INT, 2 FR), Nate Landman (1 INT, 2 FR), Emmanuel Forbes (3 INT), Kam Curl (2 INT), Quentin Lake (1 INT, 1 FR)

The Los Angeles Rams entered the 2026 campaign with a turnover profile that heavily favored ball security and defensive opportunism, finishing the prior season with a plus-10 net differential. The offense was particularly disciplined in protecting the football, ranking fourth in the league with only 15 total giveaways. Matthew Stafford led the team with eight interceptions thrown and three fumbles lost, while Kyren Williams accounted for two of the seven total fumbles lost by the squad. Colby Parkinson and Puka Nacua each contributed one fumble lost, but the unit’s overall caution helped Los Angeles finish fourth in fewest giveaways.

On the defensive side, the Rams ranked fifth in takeaways with 25 total, driven by 16 interceptions and nine fumble recoveries. Cobie Durant was a primary catalyst for this production, recording three interceptions and one fumble recovery before leaving in free agency. Emmanuel Forbes also secured three interceptions, while Kamren Kinchens added two picks and two recovered fumbles. Nate Landman contributed one interception and two fumble recoveries, while Kam Curl added two interceptions. Quentin Lake rounded out the list with one interception and one fumble recovery. The departure of Durant creates a notable gap in the secondary’s takeaway production, requiring remaining holdovers and new additions like Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson to absorb those responsibilities without sacrificing the unit’s fifth-most takeaways.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Matthew Stafford 150 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 14/425 ≈ 3.3% of shotgun plays; 9/624 ≈ 1.4% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures.

Sack leaders (defense): Byron Young (12), Jared Verse (7.5), Kobie Turner (7), Josaiah Stewart (3)

The Rams allowed a league-low 23 sacks in 2025, including 14 from shotgun sets. Matthew Stafford absorbed 150 yards in lost yardage due to these takedowns. The share of all formation plays ending in a sack was 3.3% from shotgun (14 of 425) and 1.4% under center (9 of 624). Those figures are formation-play sack shares — including runs in the denominator — not pressure rates or conventional dropback sack rates, and they still show how rarely plays from either alignment ended in a sack.

On the defensive side of the ball, the pass rush was anchored by Byron Young, who recorded a team-high 12 sacks. He received support from Jared Verse, who tallied 7.5 sacks before being traded to Cleveland in the Myles Garrett deal, and Kobie Turner, who added 7 sacks to the total. Josaiah Stewart also contributed with 3 sacks, helping to diversify the sources of backfield disruption. While the defense recorded sacks across various coverage shells, the individual production from Young and the now-departed Verse formed the core of a unit that consistently threatened opposing quarterbacks throughout the season.

Return Touchdowns

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 1 (#19) — Rashid Shaheed (punt return).

Punt returns 28 for 259 yards; kickoff returns 59 for 1479 yards.

The Los Angeles Rams finished the 2025 season with zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns, a mark that ranked 13th in the league for that specific scoring metric. The team recorded 28 punt returns for 259 yards and 59 kickoff returns for 1,479 yards; none of those returns resulted in a touchdown. Those totals are return volume and scoring output.

On the defensive side of special teams, the Rams allowed just one return touchdown to opponents, which ranks as the 19th-best mark in the NFL. The sole blemish on their record came when Rashid Shaheed scored on a punt return against them. While the unit successfully prevented further damage through kickoffs and punts, the single allowed score highlights that coverage was not impenetrable, even if the overall frequency of surrendering points in this phase remained relatively low.

Penalties

Offense: 43 penalties for 321 yards (#2). Most common: Offensive Holding (16), False Start (12), Delay of Game (6). Most flags in Under Center (17), Shotgun (3), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Tyler Higbee (3), Davis Allen (3), Coleman Shelton (3).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 32 penalties for 252 yards (#1), including 2 special-teams punt-return holdings — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Holding (4), Roughing the Passer (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (8), Cover 2 (4), Cover 3 (4). Most flagged players: Emmanuel Forbes (4), Quentin Lake (3), Kobie Turner (3).

The Los Angeles Rams offense finished among the cleanest units in the league, committing 43 infractions for 321 yards — second-fewest in the NFL. Offensive Holding was the primary issue with 16 flags, followed by 12 False Starts and 6 Delay of Game penalties. Seventeen offensive flags occurred on under-center plays, while Shotgun and Pistol sets drew 3 and 1 penalty respectively. Individual discipline issues were concentrated among specific blockers and tight ends, as Tyler Higbee, Davis Allen, and Coleman Shelton each drew 3 flags.

On the other side of the ball, the defense-side nflverse bucket recorded 32 penalties for 252 yards — fewest in the league, a total that includes 2 special-teams holdings on punt returns rather than a filtered scheme-defense total. Defensive Pass Interference led the defensive penalty types with 8 occurrences, while Defensive Holding and Roughing the Passer each appeared 4 times. Eight defense-side flags occurred on Cover 1 plays, compared to 4 each for Cover 2 and Cover 3.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 838 plays, 53.1% success, 0.17 EPA/play (#1). Most efficient on early downs: Tutu Atwell (11 plays, 0.79 EPA/play), Tyler Higbee (23 plays, 0.62 EPA/play), Puka Nacua (124 plays, 0.56 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 198 plays, 51.5% success, 0.06 EPA/play (#11). Most efficient in the red zone: Puka Nacua (18 plays, 0.84 EPA/play).

The Los Angeles Rams demonstrated elite efficiency on early downs during the 2025 season, ranking first in expected points added per play with a 0.17 mark across 838 plays. This unit achieved a 53.1% success rate, driven by high-value contributions from key returning holdovers. Puka Nacua was a central figure in this production, generating 0.56 EPA per play over 124 early-down plays, while Tyler Higbee added 0.62 EPA per play across 23 plays. Tutu Atwell also posted strong numbers with 0.79 EPA per play on 11 plays; after a brief mid-cycle stop in Miami, he was re-acquired by L.A. on August 27 and made the initial 53.

Inside the red zone, the offense maintained a top-tier profile by ranking 11th in EPA per play at 0.06 over 198 total plays. The team secured a 51.5% success rate in these compressed areas, with Puka Nacua again leading the way as the most efficient option. He recorded 0.84 EPA per play across 18 red zone plays, highlighting his critical role in converting scoring opportunities. This sustained effectiveness in both early-down and red zone situations underscores the unit’s ability to maximize possession value even as offensive continuity shifts with players like Rob Havenstein departing.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 6.3 (#3); they passed 59.0% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): Matthew Stafford (53.2% success on 617 pass plays).

On rushes (qualifying 2025 PBP rush plays — not official NFL attempt totals): Kyren Williams (50.2% success on 259 qualifying PBP rush plays), Blake Corum (51.0% success on 145 qualifying PBP rush plays).

The Los Angeles Rams operated as a pass-first offense that still maintained elite efficiency on the ground, ranking second in overall pass play success rate at 53.2% while leading the league in rush play success at 49.9%. They executed 617 pass plays compared to 439 rush plays, resulting in a 58.4% pass rate that placed them twelfth in the league. This balanced approach yielded high productivity, with the unit averaging 7.39 yards per pass play and 4.97 yards per rush play, both figures landing in the top four across the NFL. On neutral downs specifically, the team showed a clear preference for throwing, posting a 6.3% pass rate over expected which ranked third highest, as they chose to pass on 59.0% of those specific snaps.

Individual performers drove these high efficiency marks, with Matthew Stafford achieving a 53.2% success rate across his 617 qualifying pass plays. The ground game featured strong contributions from its primary backs, as Kyren Williams recorded a 50.2% success rate on 259 qualifying rush plays and Blake Corum posted a 51.0% success rate on 145 qualifying rush plays. These individual metrics supported the team's top-tier rankings in both passing and rushing success, demonstrating that the offense found consistent positive outcomes regardless of whether they chose to air it out or hand the ball off.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

The Los Angeles Rams offense was a premier generator of big plays in 2025, ranking second in the league with 84 explosive plays that totaled 2,474 yards. This production was heavily skewed toward the passing game, which accounted for 72 of those explosives and 2,132 yards, while the rushing attack contributed 12 runs of 20 or more yards for 342 yards. Puka Nacua led the receiving corps with 28 explosive catches for 861 yards, far outpacing Davante Adams, who recorded 14 such receptions for 372 yards. Terrance Ferguson added seven explosive receptions for 201 yards, Tyler Higbee contributed six for 132 yards, Xavier Smith had five for 198 yards, and Colby Parkinson logged four for 93 yards. On the ground, Kyren Williams paced the rushers with eight explosive runs for 200 yards, followed by Blake Corum, who added five explosive carries for 148 yards.

Defensively, the unit allowed a middle-of-the-pack 60 explosive plays for 1,767 yards, finishing 17th in the league in this metric. Opponents generated most of their big gains through the air, with 53 passing explosives yielding 1,479 yards, compared to seven rushing explosives for 288 yards. Coverage-shell explosive totals are raw counts and are not rate-adjusted for how often each coverage was deployed. The defense allowed seven explosive rushes (20-plus yards).

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

The Los Angeles Rams built their 2025 offensive identity around the 11 personnel package, utilizing one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers on 630 plays. This grouping generated 1.67 full PPR fantasy points per play and featured core contributors Kyren Williams, Tyler Higbee, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams, and Jordan Whittington. The team also leaned heavily on 13 personnel, which deployed one running back, three tight ends, and one wide receiver for 331 plays. That heavier set proved efficient with 1.83 fantasy points per play, relying on Williams alongside tight ends Davis Allen, Colby Parkinson, Terrance Ferguson, and Konata Mumpfield. A smaller sample of 94 plays came from 12 personnel, featuring two tight ends and two wide receivers, which produced 1.46 fantasy points per play with Williams, Allen, Parkinson, Nacua, and Adams taking the field.

Formation usage showed a distinct preference for traditional alignments, as the Rams ran 624 plays from under center, accounting for 59.1% of their plays. These under-center looks yielded 1.56 fantasy points per play. The offense complemented this base with 425 plays from shotgun formation, representing a 40.2% share that delivered a higher efficiency rate of 1.89 fantasy points per play. While run-pass options exist within these structures, the data highlights how the team distributed its workload across these specific personnel groupings and formations to maximize production from its key skill players.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #4; play-action rank #1 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

The Los Angeles Rams operated with one of the league’s most active pre-snap identities in 2025, ranking fourth in motion rate while utilizing movement on 685 plays (a 64.9% rate) at a 52.4% success rate. The charted motion sample averaged 1.72 FP/play versus 1.66 without motion.

Play-action ranked first among 32 teams despite appearing on only 20.5% of plays (216 charted play-action plays). The charted play-action sample produced 2.66 FP/play versus 1.46 without play action, with a 53.7% success rate on those plays.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Matthew Stafford enters the 2026 season as the clear centerpiece of the Los Angeles Rams passing attack, having secured the league MVP Award after leading the NFL with 4,707 passing yards and 46 touchdowns. His efficiency metrics reflect a dominant campaign, highlighted by a career-high 7.7% touchdown rate that surpassed his previous best of 6.8% set in 2021. Across 17 games in 2025 he averaged 22.6 fantasy points and maintained a +0.19 EPA per dropback. Los Angeles allowed only 23 sacks in 2025. Separately, Sharp ranks the 2026 OL fifth and the quarterback unit fifth.

At the team play level (2025 PBP/FTN), Los Angeles ran 59.1% of offensive plays from under center and charted play action on 20.5% of plays (first among 32 teams). On Stafford’s dropbacks specifically (Sharp/NFL+), he took 59.6% of his snaps from under center — the highest mark in the league — including 250 under-center dropbacks (next closest: 189). On Stafford’s under-center dropbacks specifically, he used play action on 86.1%, producing 20 touchdowns against one interception in that subset. He also posted a +2.0% CPOE for the season. Team play shares and Stafford dropback rates describe different denominators.

Looking ahead to 2026, Stafford remains the clear starter after Jimmy Garoppolo’s departure. The initial 53 carries Stafford, Stetson Bennett IV, and first-rounder Ty Simpson; as of August 27 the Rams had not publicly settled the Week 1 backup between Bennett and Simpson.

Top two QBs. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Win = weeks in the top N at that DK position on the salary slate (QB 5 / RB·WR 12 / TE 6). DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Los Angeles Rams receiving corps as the fourth-best unit heading into 2026, a projection built on the established volume hierarchy from the previous season. Puka Nacua anchored the group with a team-high 166 targets and a 36.4% NFL+ TGT%, generating 112.9 receiving EPA over 16 games. Davante Adams served as the secondary option with 114 targets and a 27.9% NFL+ TGT%, though his air yards per target of 13.2 indicated a deeper average depth of target compared to Nacua’s 8.9. The wide receiver room also featured contributions from Jordan Whittington, who logged 25 targets, and Xavier Smith, who saw 24 targets. Tutu Atwell is back after a brief Dolphins stint (re-acquired August 27), so the WR room is deeper than a pure Nacua–Adams duo; the core two-man structure at wide receiver still carries the volume hierarchy.

The tight end group provided significant support, led by Colby Parkinson, who commanded 56 targets and a 23.8% NFL+ TGT% while posting 10.5 receiving EPA. Tyler Higbee added 36 targets before injuries limited him to nine games, while Davis Allen contributed 33 targets and Terrance Ferguson saw 25 looks. In the red zone, Davante Adams was the most involved pass-catcher with 32 targets, representing a 29.4% share of those looks. Parkinson followed with 22 red-zone targets, and Nacua added 17. That hierarchy shows primary volume near the goal line for the top wideouts and meaningful red-zone involvement for Parkinson.

Looking toward 2026, the Rams have added draft capital to the position by selecting Max Klare at pick 61 and CJ Daniels at pick 197, injecting youth into a room that already boasts elite veteran production. The addition of these rookies complements the existing framework where Nacua and Adams combined for 280 targets, ensuring the passing attack retains its established high-volume options. With the tight end trio of Parkinson, Higbee, and Allen returning alongside the new draft picks, the unit is positioned to maintain its top-tier status. The integration of Klare and Daniels will be monitored, but the established target leaders provide a stable foundation for the upcoming season.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club, those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The Los Angeles Rams enter the 2026 season with a rushing attack that Sharp ranks as the sixth-strongest unit in the league, supported by an offensive line graded as the fifth-best. Kyren Williams anchored the backfield in 2025, carrying the ball 259 times, while Blake Corum added 145 attempts to the ground game. NFL+ rushing Success % lists Williams at 50.6% and Corum at 49.7%, with Williams at +0.4 rush EPA and Corum at +13.2. Separately, PBP qualifying rush-play success was Williams 50.2% (259 plays) and Corum 51.0% (145 plays) — PBP and NFL+ success rates use different denominators. Those 2025 metrics show strong efficiency from the returning duo, suggesting that the personnel group remains potent despite the elite ranking projecting further strength for the upcoming campaign.

Red-zone usage heavily favored Williams, who logged 53 rushing attempts inside the 20-yard line compared to Corum’s 27. This volume translated into significant scoring production, as Williams recorded 13 total red-zone touchdowns on 63 total opportunities, which included 10 targets. Corum found the end zone five times on his 28 red-zone opportunities, which consisted of 27 rushes and one target. The disparity in touches highlights Williams’ role as the primary finisher, though Corum’s involvement ensured the defense had to account for multiple threats near the goal line. The backfield is not frozen from 2025: Jarquez Hunter was traded to Miami on August 27 for Tutu Atwell, and the initial 53 lists Kyren Williams, Blake Corum, and Ronnie Rivers. Historical Williams/Corum tables still describe last year’s hierarchy; the forward-looking room is that three-man group.

Rush EPA / RYOE/Att / Success % are NFL+ season averages. Success % here is not the same denominator as the qualifying 2025 PBP rush-play success rates cited above (Williams 50.2%, Corum 51.0%).

Red Zone Rushing Scope

RZ TD = combined rushing and receiving touchdowns on red-zone opportunities; it is not rushing touchdowns alone.

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Los Angeles Rams established themselves as the league’s most potent offense in 2025, leading all teams with 30.5 points per game. This scoring dominance translates directly to fantasy production, where the unit also ranked first by generating 103.6 full PPR fantasy points per game. It is crucial to distinguish between these two metrics, as real-world points measure actual scoreboard impact while fantasy points account for volume-based statistics like receptions and yardage thresholds. The Rams’ ability to top both categories indicates an offense that not only finds the end zone frequently but also sustains drives through high-volume passing and rushing contributions that reward fantasy managers.

Defensively, the team allowed 20.4 points per game, which ranked tenth in the league, showing a solid but less dominant real-world performance compared to their offensive output. In fantasy terms, opponents averaged 79.1 full PPR fantasy points per game against Los Angeles, placing the defense at rank 15 in terms of points surrendered to opposing skill players. That elite 2025 offensive production now carries into a 2026 schedule that Sharp ranks as the fifth-hardest in the NFL. Maintaining such high scoring efficiency will be a significant test given the increased difficulty of the upcoming slate of opponents.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Los Angeles Rams established themselves as early-game producers, ranking second in Q1 real scoring and first in Q1 full-PPR production. They averaged 6.6 actual points and 24.1 fantasy points per game in the opening period, then again led the NFL in third-quarter scoring output with 7.3 points and 25.5 fantasy points per contest. Defensively, Q4 produced Los Angeles’ highest quarterly opponent fantasy average at 24.5 FP/G (19th), while Q2 produced its highest real-points average allowed at 6.2 (14th). The Rams held opponents to 3.6 real points in the third quarter (eighth) and allowed 20.8 fantasy points in the second quarter (12th).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #3, Secondary #4.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Nate Landman led the club with 132 tackles; Byron Young 12.0 sacks, Jared Verse 7.5 sacks, Kobie Turner 7.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Nate Landman: 8 TFL, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD; Kam Curl: 2 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 2 INT, 5 PD; Omar Speights: 1 PD; Kamren Kinchens: 2 INT, 6 PD; Byron Young: 12 TFL, 12.0 sacks; Quentin Lake: 2 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 10 PD.

The Los Angeles Rams enter the 2026 season with a defensive foundation that Sharp ranks third in the Front 7 and fourth in the Secondary, signaling high expectations for unit performance. Sharp’s No. 3 Front 7 grade predates Donald’s August 30 return. This projection relies heavily on returning holdovers who posted significant production in 2025, including linebacker Nate Landman, who led the club with 132 combined tackles while adding eight tackles for loss, 2.5 sacks, one interception, and six passes defended. The pass rush also returns key contributors, most notably Byron Young, who recorded 12.0 sacks and 12 tackles for loss, alongside Kobie Turner, who notched 7.0 sacks. Safety Kam Curl provided versatile support with 122 tackles, two interceptions, and five passes defended, while Quentin Lake added 10 passes defended and one interception to the secondary’s tally.

Personnel changes significantly reshape the roster through major acquisitions and notable departures. The defense adds elite talent via trade, including edge rusher Myles Garrett and cornerback Trent McDuffie, while also signing cornerback Jaylen Watson and linebacker Grant Stuard in free agency. The biggest late update is Aaron Donald (DT), who unretired and rejoined the Rams on August 30 and is listed among L.A.'s active defensive linemen on the initial 53 — a Hall-of-Fame-caliber interior presence that sits on top of the 2025 tape rather than inside Sharp's already-published Front 7 rank. These additions help offset the loss of several starters, including edge rusher Jared Verse, who was traded to the Browns in the Myles Garrett deal, and cornerbacks Cobie Durant and Derion Kendrick, who both departed for the Cowboys. The secondary also sees Roger McCreary leave for the Lions, while the front seven loses depth with the departures of linebacker Troy Reeder and edge rusher Nick Hampton to the Panthers. Seventh-round DT Tim Keenan III was a draft-day interior add, but he was waived after final cuts and signed to the practice squad, so he is not immediate active-roster depth.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Team kicking totals (22/28 FG, 62/65 PAT) combine Karty’s and Mevis’ individual kicking results. Joshua Karty: 10/15 FG, 23/26 PAT, long 51 (waived November 2025). Harrison Mevis: 12/13 FG, 39/39 PAT, long 52 — and Mevis is L.A.'s 2026 kicker.

Ethan Evans led with 50 punts (20 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Jordan Whittington: 17 returns for 434 yards.

Punt returner Xavier Smith: 27 returns for 251 yards.

Special teams tackler Shaun Dolac: 17 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Los Angeles split placekicking duties in 2025 rather than riding one full-season specialist. Joshua Karty went 10-of-15 on field goals and 23-of-26 on extra points (long 51) before being waived in November; Harrison Mevis then went 12-of-13 and 39-of-39 (long 52). Combined, those lines produce the team totals of 22-of-28 FG and 62-of-65 PAT — the team totals combine Karty’s and Mevis’ individual kicking results. Mevis is the Rams' 2026 kicker. Ethan Evans served as the primary punter, dropping 50 punts with 20 inside the opponent’s 20 and none blocked.

In the return game, Jordan Whittington led the kickoff returners with 17 carries that totaled 434 yards. Xavier Smith managed the punt return responsibilities, fielding 27 kicks for a combined 251 yards. Shaun Dolac was the most active contributor in coverage, recording 17 combined tackles across punt and kickoff units. These core specialists formed the backbone of the Rams' special teams production last season. The current 2026 unofficial depth chart keeps Xavier Smith at PR1 and Jordan Whittington at KR1, with Konata Mumpfield and Ronnie Rivers as the respective backups.

Penalty Analysis

Sharp’s penalty analysis highlights Los Angeles as one of the league’s most disciplined teams, averaging the fewest penalties per game across the entire 2025 season. This clean play extended to specific situational and environmental splits, as the team recorded the lowest penalty average on the road and committed the fewest infractions in first quarters. Their offensive line and skill players were particularly adept at avoiding flags, ranking second in the NFL for fewest offensive penalties on third downs and trailing only the 49ers in overall offensive penalty frequency. This restraint created a significant competitive edge, allowing the Rams to secure the largest net penalty yardage advantage against opponents and rank among the top five teams in benefiting from automatic first downs via defensive penalties in the second half of games.

Despite this broad excellence in discipline, the offense did show a specific vulnerability by committing six delay of game penalties, a total that tied for the tenth-most in the league. However, this minor blemish did not detract from their status as the least penalized team overall, providing a stable foundation for a roster that ownership has aggressively upgraded with additions like Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie. While the upcoming schedule is ranked as the fifth-hardest in the league and places a target on the team as short-priced favorites, their ability to avoid self-inflicted wounds remains a critical asset. Maintaining this high level of disciplinary control will be essential as they navigate a gauntlet of difficult matchups in their bid to host the Super Bowl at SoFi Stadium.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 43 penalties for 321 yards (#2). Most common: Offensive Holding (16), False Start (12), Delay of Game (6). Most flags in Under Center (17), Shotgun (3), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Tyler Higbee (3), Davis Allen (3), Coleman Shelton (3).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 32 penalties for 252 yards (#1), including 2 special-teams punt-return holdings — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Holding (4), Roughing the Passer (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (8), Cover 2 (4), Cover 3 (4). Most flagged players: Emmanuel Forbes (4), Quentin Lake (3), Kobie Turner (3).

The Los Angeles Rams offense drew 43 penalties for 321 yards, ranking second-fewest in the league. Offensive holding was the most frequent infraction with 16 flags, followed by 12 false starts and six delay of game violations. These infractions clustered heavily around specific personnel, as Tyler Higbee, Davis Allen, and Coleman Shelton each accrued three personal flags. Seventeen offensive flags occurred on under-center plays, while shotgun and pistol sets accounted for three and one penalty respectively.

On the other side of the ball, the defense-side nflverse bucket logged 32 penalties for 252 yards, which ranked fewest overall. That total includes two special-teams holdings on punt returns rather than a filtered scheme-defense total. Defensive pass interference led the category with eight flags, while defensive holding and roughing the passer each occurred four times. Eight defense-side flags occurred on Cover 1 plays, and Cover 2 produced four.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp Fantasy Ranks: Puka Nacua WR1, Kyren Williams RB17

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the roster call — who to target, who to fade, and who inherits work from free agency and the draft.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Puka Nacua (23.4 FPavg), Matthew Stafford (20.7 FPavg), Davante Adams (15.9 FPavg), Kyren Williams (15.5 FPavg), Colby Parkinson (9.3 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Puka Nacua was the clear focal point of the Los Angeles Rams passing attack across defensive shells in 2025, leading the team in cumulative full-PPR fantasy points against seven of the eight charted coverages (Cover 1, Cover 2, Cover 3, Cover 4, Cover 6, Cover 9, and 2 Man). He generated a massive 103 points against Cover 3, the most frequently seen look at 26.6% of plays, and added 78 points against Cover 1 — ahead of Davante Adams’ 58 in that shell, not a tie. Adams led only Cover 0 with 44 points. Los Angeles averaged a team-high 6.45 fantasy points per play against Cover 0 (4.6% of plays).

Colby Parkinson was the Rams’ second-leading cumulative scorer against both Cover 2 and 2-Man, trailing only Puka Nacua in each shell. He accounted for 36 of the team’s 240 total points against Cover 2 and added 8 points against 2-Man looks. Kyren Williams contributed primarily against Cover 4, tallying 16 points to finish second behind Nacua in that shell. Xavier Smith saw limited action but managed the second-highest total against Cover 9 with 6 points.

The Rams faced their highest volume of plays against Cover 3 and Cover 1, combining for over half of their offensive plays, yet they maintained strong production levels in both areas. While the per-play average dipped to 2.08 against Cover 3, the sheer volume allowed Nacua to accumulate significant fantasy capital. Conversely, the team struggled to generate high totals against 2-Man coverage, averaging just 1.60 points per play across 31 plays. Nacua led cumulative Rams fantasy production against seven of the eight charted coverages, showing broad production across most of the shells Los Angeles faced.

Skill losses: Jimmy Garoppolo (QB), Jarquez Hunter (RB) to the Dolphins (August 27 trade that returned Tutu Atwell), and Nick Vannett (TE).

Skill draft picks: Ty Simpson (QB, Rd 1, Alabama), Max Klare (TE, Rd 2, Ohio State), and CJ Daniels (WR, Rd 6, Miami (FL)).

Puka Nacua stands out as the primary fantasy target after leading the team with 23.4 full PPR points per game in 2025 versus a 20.3 expected-points average — about 3.1 FP/G more than his expected fantasy-point profile. Matthew Stafford delivered 20.7 points per game against a 22.6 expected average (about 1.9 FP/G under). Davante Adams contributed 15.9 points per game versus 19.3 expected — 3.4 FP/G below his expected fantasy-point average.

The receiving corps still reshuffles at the margins with rookie CJ Daniels (sixth round) and the return of Tutu Atwell from Miami after the August 27 swap, adding depth behind Nacua and Adams rather than subtracting a body. Tight end Colby Parkinson remains a viable streamer after posting 9.3 points per game, slightly outperforming his 9.0 expected average, while Tyler Higbee provided 7.9 points per game in limited action. The team also drafted Max Klare in the second round, which could introduce new competition for targets in the two-tight end sets that have been part of the offensive scheme.

Kyren Williams anchors the backfield after recording 15.5 points per game, edging out his 15.0 expected average. His workload appears secure despite Blake Corum remaining in the rotation without yet challenging Williams’ primary status. Running back is Sharp’s lowest-ranked Rams position group, but it still ranks sixth league-wide. Williams’ involvement in the passing game helps sustain his fantasy floor. Stafford remains the clear fantasy starter; behind him the initial 53 lists Stetson Bennett IV and Ty Simpson, and the Week 1 backup had not been publicly settled as of August 27.

Inside Scoop

Sharp’s overall grade for the Los Angeles Rams is an A++. The analyst identifies the head coaching staff as the league’s strongest unit. Running back is Sharp’s lowest-ranked Rams position group, but it still ranks sixth league-wide. Ownership has aggressively targeted a championship outcome after consecutive playoff exits at the hands of eventual title winners, assembling what betting markets view as the favorite to win it all. This confidence stems from high-impact additions to an already elite core, specifically bringing in two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett and All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie, plus the August 30 return of Aaron Donald from retirement — a move that landed after Sharp's preview was locked, so Sharp’s published Front 7 grade predates Donald’s return. Despite the heavy investment in talent, the team faces a brutal slate of opponents, with Sharp ranking their schedule difficulty at 28th on a scale where 32 represents the hardest path.

The 2025 campaign delivered a 12-5 record, providing a sturdy foundation for the 11.5-win forecast in 2026. Betting lines reflect this dominance, setting an average spread of -4.5 with the team favored in 16 of 17 games. However, the roster has undergone significant turnover that bettors must weigh against the super-team narrative. Key departures include Rob Havenstein, Cobie Durant, Jared Verse, Jimmy Garoppolo, D.J. Humphries, Roger McCreary, Derion Kendrick, Jake McQuaide, Nick Vannett, Troy Reeder, Nick Hampton, and Jarquez Hunter. These losses are partially offset by the arrivals of Garrett, McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Grant Stuard, and Joe Cardona, the re-acquisition of Tutu Atwell, and Donald's unretirement. While the regular season schedule presents a gauntlet, the infusion of elite defensive talent aims to ensure the Rams do not just compete but dictate terms against every opponent they face.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.