NFL 2026 PREVIEW: MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Minnesota Vikings enter 2026 off a 9-8 season, with Warren Sharp forecasting 8.5 wins and a third-place NFC North finish. Last year’s scoring split tells the story better than the record: 20.2 points per game (26th) on offense and 19.6 allowed (seventh-fewest). They were 9-8 against the spread and 8-9 to the total. Sharp’s betting snapshot lands almost exactly at pick’em overall. Minnesota averages -1.8 at home and +2.1 on the road, with eight games as a favorite and nine as an underdog. Strength of schedule is 21st (1 = easiest).

Kevin O’Connell is in year five (Sharp’s ninth-ranked coach), with Kyler Murray named the starter on August 11. Sharp still has the receivers third and the running backs 28th, which is the imbalance Minnesota has to live with: Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison on one side of the ball, a committee backfield on the other. The Front 7 is 20th and the secondary 16th. That is a mid-pack defense behind a bottom-third offense, priced like a coin flip for a reason.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Jauan Jennings (WR), James Pierre (CB), Ryan Van Demark (RT), and Kyler Murray (QB).

Key Departures: Jalen Nailor (WR) to the Raiders, Javon Hargrave (IDL) to the Packers, Jonathan Greenard (EDGE) (traded to the Eagles), Jonathan Allen (DL) (Released), Ryan Kelly (C), Ryan Wright (P) to the Saints, C.J. Ham (FB), Jeff Okudah (CB), Rondale Moore (WR), Justin Skule (LT) to the Buccaneers, Ben Sims (TE) to the Dolphins, Fabian Moreau (CB), Ty Chandler (RB) to the Saints, Brett Rypien (QB), John Wolford (QB), Matt Nelson (LT), and Zeke Correll (C).

Kevin O’Connell is in year five with Wes Phillips and Brian Flores still on the headset. Sharp has him ninth among head coaches. The book graded the quarterback room 21st while the job was still open. O’Connell named Kyler Murray the starter on August 11, with J.J. McCarthy behind him and Carson Wentz as veteran depth.

Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason and rookie Demond Claiborne form the opening running back room. Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and Jauan Jennings headline the receivers, with Tai Felton and Myles Price behind them. T.J. Hockenson leads a four-man tight end group with Josh Oliver, Ben Yurosek and Gavin Bartholomew. Rookie Brett Thorson won the punting job. Kyle Van Noy and DeeJay Dallas are on the practice squad. Dallas Turner steps into the primary edge-rush role vacated by Jonathan Greenard, while first-round pick Caleb Banks adds help inside. Harrison Smith returned for his 15th season on September 5. Jamal Adams will miss the season on injured reserve.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

Minnesota used the 18th pick on Caleb Banks, a 6-foot-6, 327-pound interior defender who can also play odd-front end. Sharp’s draft note was about raw pass-rush upside from a messy Florida tenure. Second-round linebacker Jake Golday followed Banks at pick 51, and Minnesota added Domonique Orange at pick 82 in the third round. Orange is shade/2-technique help next to Jalen Redmond, Levi Drake Rodriguez, Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, and Elijah Williams.

The rest of the class is depth: Caleb Tiernan (T, 97), Jakobe Thomas (S, 98), Max Bredeson (FB, 159), Charles Demmings (CB, 163), Demond Claiborne (RB, 198), and seventh-round center Gavin Gerhardt (235). Gerhardt did not stick. Minnesota waived him at cutdown, parked him on the practice squad briefly, then released him from it on September 2. Interior line depth instead came via August 31 claims of Trevor Keegan and Nick Samac.

Sharp Forecasts Minnesota Vikings with 8.5 Wins

Over Case: Even in a down Arizona year, Sharp had Kyler Murray 25th in EPA per play among 57 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks. McCarthy, Wentz, and Brosmer were 45th, 30th, and 57th. Minnesota threw a league-worst 21 interceptions and sat last on third down at 31.8 percent (NFL average 39.5). Jauan Jennings ranked 21st in third-down target rate among 93 qualified receivers, which is the extra piece next to Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson in a receiver group Sharp still ranks third. If Murray’s mobility and that room cut the picks and the third-down stalls, 8.5 is the floor, not the ceiling.

Under Case: Minnesota already had league-worst ball security (30 giveaways). What can regress is the luck around it. The Vikings fumbled 23 times and lost only nine; opponents fumbled 22 and lost 13, most in the NFL. Sharp had them fourth in fumble luck (4.5 net over expectation). The kicking was just as hot: 94.3 percent on field goals (third), 100 percent on extra points (first), and third in field-goal luck. Last year’s defense was stingy (19.6 points allowed per game, seventh-fewest), and it will look different after Jonathan Greenard went to Philadelphia and Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave left. If the kicking and fumble-recovery luck come back to earth before the offense does, 8.5 is a grind.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Sharp’s timing metrics place the Vikings in a favorable position regarding recovery, ranking 11th in net rest edge with a season total of plus-four days. This aggregate advantage stems from six weeks featuring a non-zero rest differential, including significant spikes such as the plus-seven day edge in Week 7 against Indianapolis and smaller boosts in Weeks 5 and 13. The schedule also avoids some of the league’s most grueling travel demands, as the team ranks fourth in games off road Sunday Night Football or Monday Night Football appearances. While the overall rest rank sits at 19th, the specific distribution of extra recovery time provides tangible windows for physical maintenance during the mid-season stretch.

The preparation landscape looks even more promising on paper, with Sharp assigning the Vikings the top prep rank in the NFL. This elite standing is supported by a fifth-place finish in negated bye rank. Short-week road scenarios are a moderate challenge (11th), but the combination of high prep scores and a manageable number of late-night road broadcasts is a stable operational baseline.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club +4 days.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: J.J. McCarthy (12 INT, 2 FL), Carson Wentz (5 INT), Max Brosmer (4 INT, 1 FL), Jordan Mason (1 FL), Zavier Scott (1 FL), Myles Price (1 FL, special teams return), Aaron Jones (1 FL). Takeaways: Harrison Smith (2 INT, 1 FR), Andrew Van Ginkel (1 INT, 2 FR), Byron Murphy (2 INT, 1 FR), Isaiah Rodgers (1 INT, 1 FR), Josh Metellus (2 INT), Jalen Redmond (2 FR)

Minnesota’s 2025 ball security was the worst in the league. The offense committed a league-worst 30 giveaways, and the 21 interceptions thrown were also last in the NFL. J.J. McCarthy accounted for 12 of those picks and two fumbles lost, Carson Wentz added five interceptions, and Max Brosmer threw four more. Jordan Mason, Aaron Jones, Zavier Scott, and returner Myles Price each lost one fumble. The net was minus-nine.

The defense did its part with 21 takeaways, tenth in the league. Thirteen of those were fumble recoveries, best in the NFL, with Andrew Van Ginkel collecting two and Harrison Smith, Jalen Redmond, and others chipping in. The secondary only intercepted eight passes (25th), split among Smith, Byron Murphy, Josh Metellus, and Isaiah Rodgers at two apiece except Rodgers’s one.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: J.J. McCarthy 149 yards; Carson Wentz 125 yards; Max Brosmer 100 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 51/526 ≈ 9.7% of shotgun plays; 9/411 ≈ 2.2% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Dallas Turner (8), Andrew Van Ginkel (7), Eric Wilson (6.5), Jalen Redmond (6)

The Vikings took 60 sacks in 2025, 29th in the league. Fifty-one of those came on shotgun snaps (526 such plays, about 9.7 percent, 30th) and nine came on under-center snaps (411 such plays, about 2.2 percent). Those shares include runs, so they are not dropback sack rates. McCarthy lost 149 yards to sacks, Wentz 125, Brosmer 100.

Minnesota’s defense recorded 49 sacks, fourth in the NFL. Dallas Turner led with eight, then Andrew Van Ginkel (seven), Eric Wilson (6.5), and Jalen Redmond (six). Cover 2 was where they finished most often (20 sacks, first in the league as a raw count). They also posted 10 sacks with six rushers and two with seven or more. Cover 1 produced only three. Those coverage rows are counts, not per-snap efficiency.

Return Touchdowns

Punt returns 32 for 303 yards; kickoff returns 67 for 1741 yards.

Myles Price took almost both return jobs: 30 punts for 298 yards and 57 kickoffs for 1,479.

Penalties

Offense: 66 penalties for 502 yards (#20). Most common: False Start (26), Offensive Holding (20), Delay of Game (5). Most flags in Under Center (12), Shotgun (9). Most flagged players: Christian Darrisaw (7), Brian O'Neill (5), Blake Brandel (5).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 45 penalties for 384 yards (#12), including 5 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Illegal Contact (5), Roughing the Passer (5), Defensive Offside (5). Most flags on Cover 3 (6), Cover 1 (4), Cover 6 (4). Most flagged players: Byron Murphy (7), Dallas Turner (4), Jay Ward (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Minnesota finished 20th in both flags and penalty yards. The offense was assessed 66 penalties for 502 yards (also 20th on the fewest-flags scale). False starts (26) and holding (20) led the way. Christian Darrisaw was flagged seven times; Brian O’Neill and Blake Brandel five apiece.

The defense-side nflverse bucket was cleaner at 45 penalties for 384 yards (12th), and that bucket includes five special-teams holdings on punt returns plus an illegal formation on kickoffs or PATs. Teamwide the Vikings were flagged 111 times and walked off 886 yards, still 20th. Rank 1 means fewest flags.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 723 plays, 44.1% success, -0.05 EPA/play (#28). Most efficient on early downs: Josh Oliver (18 plays, 0.50 EPA/play), T.J. Hockenson (52 plays, 0.37 EPA/play), Jordan Addison (63 plays, 0.35 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 150 plays, 42.0% success, -0.08 EPA/play (#23). Most efficient in the red zone: Jalen Nailor (13 plays, 0.60 EPA/play), T.J. Hockenson (12 plays, 0.40 EPA/play), Jordan Addison (13 plays, 0.24 EPA/play).

Josh Oliver, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison were the efficient early-down skill pieces: 18, 52, and 63 plays at 0.50, 0.37, and 0.35 EPA per play. Jefferson’s early-down volume was larger (105 plays) and basically break-even (0.02). Inside the 20 the 2025 tape favored Jalen Nailor (13 plays, 0.60 EPA per play), then Hockenson (12, 0.40) and Addison (13, 0.24). Nailor is in Las Vegas. Oliver, Hockenson, and Addison are still here. Getting both closer to league average is a central 2026 offensive question.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -1.2 (#15); they passed 53.3% of those snaps.

On pass plays: J.J. McCarthy (40.3% success on 273 pass plays), Carson Wentz (48.9% success on 188 pass plays), Max Brosmer (25.9% success on 85 pass plays).

On rushes: Jordan Mason (46.5% success on 159 rush plays), Aaron Jones (43.2% success on 132 rush plays), Zavier Scott (40.6% success on 32 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

The Vikings operated with a pass-heavy tendency that did not always translate to efficiency, ranking 13th in pass rate at 58.0% while generating only the 25th-highest volume of pass plays with 547. This aerial approach yielded just 5.19 yards per play, which placed them 28th in the league, and their overall pass success rate of 41.1% ranked 27th. On neutral downs, the team’s pass rate over expected sat at -1.2, good for 15th in the NFL, as they chose to throw on 53.3% of those snaps. Among quarterbacks, Carson Wentz led the way with a 48.9% success rate across 188 pass plays, outperforming J.J. McCarthy’s 40.3% mark on 273 plays and Max Brosmer’s 25.9% on 85 plays.

On the ground, Minnesota was even more conservative, ranking 20th in rush rate at 42.0% and 27th in total rush plays with 396. Despite the lower volume, the running game was significantly more effective than the passing attack, posting a 44.7% success rate that ranked 9th in the league and averaging 4.69 yards per play for an 11th-place finish. Jordan Mason was the most reliable option in this phase, 46.5 percent success on 159 rush plays. That is play-by-play success, not his 44.0 percent NFL+ mark on official carries. Aaron Jones is 43.2 percent on 132 plays either way. Zavier Scott was 40.6 percent on 32 rush plays.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Minnesota’s offense generated 46 explosives of 20-plus yards (28th): 39 through the air for 1,141 yards and seven rushes for 216. Justin Jefferson led with 12 receiving explosives (348 yards). Jordan Addison had 11 receiving explosives (358) plus a 65-yard rush. Nailor’s 2025 row is nine receiving explosives for 255 yards. Mason led the backfield with four explosive rushes for 94 yards; Jones had one for 31. Cover 3 was the coverage beaten most often (17 explosives, 486 yards). Cover 2 was next (11 explosives, 348 yards).

The defense allowed the fewest explosive plays in the NFL: 38 for 1,137 yards, 32 of them through the air (992 yards) and six on the ground (145). Those are raw counts, not coverage-efficiency rates. Cover 2 was the coverage on the largest allowed total (13 explosives, 409 yards), then Cover 3 (9 explosives, 288 yards) and 2 Man (4 explosives, 123 yards). DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown each recorded three receiving explosives against this secondary, with Smith gaining 128 yards and Brown adding 108. CeeDee Lamb, Jameson Williams, DJ Moore, and Zay Flowers each managed two.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Minnesota leaned heavily on its 11 personnel package, deploying one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers for 623 plays. This grouping generated 1.21 fantasy points per play in full PPR scoring and featured Jordan Mason alongside T.J. Hockenson, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Nailor, and Jordan Addison. The Vikings also utilized 12 personnel with two tight ends for 225 plays, producing 1.18 fantasy points per play with Mason, Josh Oliver, Hockenson, Jefferson, and Addison on the field. A smaller sample of 33 plays came from 13 personnel, which included three tight ends and yielded a higher efficiency mark of 1.45 fantasy points per play. That heavy set featured Mason, Hockenson, Oliver, Ben Sims, and Jefferson.

Formation choice created distinct efficiency gaps rather than driving overall volume. Shotgun alignments accounted for 55.8 percent of offensive snaps with 526 plays and delivered 1.51 fantasy points per play. Under-center plays made up 43.6 percent of the workload across 411 snaps but produced only 0.85 fantasy points per play. Run-pass options appeared on 46 plays for a 4.9 percent share and returned 0.76 fantasy points per play. These RPOs are counted within their respective shotgun, pistol, or under-center buckets rather than treated as a separate formation category.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #24; play-action rank #7 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Minnesota used pre-snap motion far more frequently than play action, although the two concepts produced different efficiency profiles. The Vikings ranked 24th in motion rate and 7th in play-action usage. They sent players in motion on 52.0 percent of their plays, a frequency that produced 1.20 full PPR fantasy points per play compared to 1.24 points on static snaps. This volume did not translate into a higher success rate, as motion plays converted at 41.2 percent while the offense found slightly better efficiency without the shift. Shifting personnel before the snap was a staple of the playbook rather than a high-leverage weapon, as the fantasy output remained nearly identical with or without the motion.

Play action offered a sharper contrast despite appearing on only 15.6 percent of snaps. Those play-action plays generated 1.53 fantasy points per play and succeeded 42.9 percent of the time, both marks clearing plays run without the fake. The offense averaged 1.16 fantasy points when it skipped the look. Motion was the default setting; play-action plays were the less frequent, higher-value call.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The 2025 quarterback table is McCarthy and Wentz, and it is messy. McCarthy’s ten DraftKings-tracked games: 15.3 average, 8.0 floor, 24.5 ceiling, minus-4.2 percent CPOE, minus-0.18 EPA per dropback. Wentz in five games: 17.1 average, plus-0.3 percent CPOE, minus-0.01 EPA. Sharp still has the line 12th. Last year’s sack tape was 29th. Sharp identified McCarthy’s middle-of-the-field passing as a major 2025 weakness, while Murray’s recent Arizona problems showed up more often in obvious passing situations. The 2026 question is whether Murray’s mobility and O’Connell’s structure can reduce a 60-sack, league-worst interception profile.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Jefferson commanded the 2025 passing game with 141 targets, a 25.7 percent share, and 10.4 air yards per target. Addison was the vertical complement: 79 targets, 14.4 air yards, plus-9.2 reception EPA. With Nailor gone, those 13 red-zone looks are the hole in last year’s target tree. Hockenson (66 targets, 16.7 percent share, 11.8 reception EPA) and Oliver (19 targets, 11.0 reception EPA, 3.97 fantasy points per red-zone look) are still the tight ends after Sims left for Miami. Jefferson still led the red zone with 19 targets.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Mason led with 159 carries in 16 games: minus-8.7 rush EPA, plus-0.9 yards over expected per attempt, 44.0 percent NFL+ success. Jones had 132 carries in 12 games (minus-4.2 EPA, minus-0.1 RYOE, 43.2 percent). Mason’s 44.0 percent is NFL+ success on official carries; play-by-play rush-play success on those same 159 is 46.5 percent. Jones lands at 43.2 either way. Chandler’s 2025 sample before he left was one rush and two targets and no scores.

Red-zone work belonged to Mason: 29 rushes, six touchdowns, 30 opportunities, 48.5 red-zone fantasy points. Jones had 14 rushes and two scores on 19 chances. Zavier Scott chipped in one touchdown. Demond Claiborne is the sixth-round rookie behind Jones and Mason.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Jordan Mason 6 rush; J.J. McCarthy 4 rush; Jalen Nailor 4 rec; Jordan Addison 4 (1 rush, 3 rec); Josh Oliver 4 rec. Passing TDs: J.J. McCarthy 11, Carson Wentz 6. Defense TDs: Isaiah Rodgers (1 def TD, 1 FR TD). Special teams: Will Reichard 33/35 FG, 31/31 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

Jordan Mason led the skill group with six rushing touchdowns. Jalen Nailor and Josh Oliver each caught four; Jordan Addison scored four times (one rush, three catches). J.J. McCarthy threw 11 touchdowns and ran for four; Carson Wentz threw six. Nailor is in Las Vegas. Isaiah Rodgers had the defensive scores. Will Reichard was the special-teams scorer: 33 of 35 field goals and all 31 extra points. Nobody scored on a punt or kickoff return.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Minnesota’s first quarter sat in the middle of the pack: 4.8 points (15th) and 16.5 fantasy points (21st). The second quarter is where the offense stalls — 5.1 points (28th) and 16.1 fantasy (30th) — even as the defense allowed the fewest fantasy points in the league in that frame (16.2) against 6.2 real points allowed (14th). The third is quiet on offense (4.2 points, 20th; 12.8 fantasy, 29th). The fourth is the offensive bump, 6.2 points (19th) and 22.0 fantasy (18th), with the defense allowing 5.3 (sixth) and the second-fewest fantasy points (16.3).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #20, Secondary #16.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Blake Cashman led the club with 144 tackles; Dallas Turner 8.0 sacks, Andrew Van Ginkel 7.0 sacks, Eric Wilson 6.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Blake Cashman: 4 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 2 PD; Eric Wilson: 17 TFL, 6.5 sacks; Josh Metellus: 1 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 2 INT, 6 PD; Byron Murphy: 3 TFL, 2 INT, 7 PD; Jonathan Allen: 7 TFL, 3.5 sacks; Isaiah Rodgers: 4 TFL, 1 INT, 4 PD; Dallas Turner: 11 TFL, 8.0 sacks, 3 PD; Andrew Van Ginkel: 11 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 1 INT, 10 PD.

Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave are gone from the interior: 7.0 sacks and 17 quarterback hits between them in 2025. Eric Johnson’s contract was terminated August 19. The opening interior names from the club’s roster breakdown are Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Jalen Redmond, Levi Drake Rodriguez, Caleb Banks, Domonique Orange, and Elijah Williams. Turner (8.0 sacks, 15 quarterback hits) and Andrew Van Ginkel (7.0 sacks, 13 hits) are the edge production that still sits on the 2025 table.

Linebacker Blake Cashman led the defense with 144 tackles. Eric Wilson added 115 tackles and 6.5 sacks. Byron Murphy posted seven passes defended and two interceptions. Smith is back with Metellus, Ward, Theo Jackson, and the rookie safeties. Jeff Okudah and Fabian Moreau are gone at corner; Murphy and Isaiah Rodgers remain. Minnesota signed James Pierre this offseason.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Will Reichard: 33/35 FG, 31/31 PAT.

Ryan Wright led with 65 punts (25 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Myles Price: 57 returns for 1479 yards.

Punt returner Myles Price: 30 returns for 298 yards.

Special teams tackler Tavierre Thomas: 19 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Will Reichard returns after converting 33 of 35 field goals (94.3 percent) and all 31 extra points, with 11 makes from 50-plus and a 62-yard long. Ryan Wright’s 2025 punting table stays historical: 65 punts, 25 inside the 20, none blocked. Wright is in New Orleans. Minnesota signed Johnny Hekker in March and released him August 30. Brett Thorson is the 2026 punter.

Myles Price handled both return jobs in 2025: 57 kickoffs for 1,479 yards and 30 punts for 298. Tavierre Thomas led coverage with 19 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Penalty Analysis

Minnesota was not a clean team. nflverse counted 111 accepted flags for 886 yards, 20th on the fewest-flags scale (1 = fewest). Sharp has them in the top 10 for pre-snap fouls, No. 1 at home in false starts per game, and says holding plus false starts were 46 percent of their penalties — the worst of the Kevin O’Connell era.

Sharp still lists a plus on declined flags: 31st in declined penalties per game, with only New England lower. A declined flag is one officials threw and the other team waved off because the play already stood. Second-fewest of those is a plus. It is not a claim Minnesota stopped fouling. The other Sharp pluses are opponent calls: 52.5 percent of Minnesota’s automatic first downs via penalty came on first down (league average 30.9), 20.75 yards per defensive pass interference on opponents (league 15.2), and 57 percent of opponent penalties in the second half (second in the NFL). They were the top net beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty in 2023–24 combined, then 10th in 2025, and they went from No. 1 in net penalty yards against opponents in 2024 to a negative per-game average in 2025.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 66 penalties for 502 yards (#20). Most common: False Start (26), Offensive Holding (20), Delay of Game (5). Most flags in Under Center (12), Shotgun (9). Most flagged players: Christian Darrisaw (7), Brian O'Neill (5), Blake Brandel (5).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 45 penalties for 384 yards (#12), including 5 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 1 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Illegal Contact (5), Roughing the Passer (5), Defensive Offside (5). Most flags on Cover 3 (6), Cover 1 (4), Cover 6 (4). Most flagged players: Byron Murphy (7), Dallas Turner (4), Jay Ward (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Minnesota’s discipline issues on offense stemmed largely from pre-snap errors, with the unit committing 26 false starts and 20 holding penalties. False starts and holding dominated Minnesota’s offensive penalty profile, accounting for much of the unit’s lost yardage. Delay of game and illegal formation were five apiece. The quarterback room added two intentional grounding penalties. Special teams recorded five offensive holding penalties during punt returns.

On the other side of the ball, the defense-side nflverse bucket shows a balanced distribution of minor infractions rather than one dominant issue. Officials called five illegal contact penalties, five roughing the passer violations, and five defensive offsides against the Vikings. Neutral zone infractions occurred four times, rounding out a defensive penalty profile that lacked a single glaring outlier but still resulted in frequent free yards for opponents. The data indicates that while the offense struggled significantly with alignment and engagement rules, the defense’s penalties were spread more evenly across contact, timing, and alignment categories.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Justin Jefferson WR5.

DFS Profile labels describe each player's 2025 DraftKings archetype using weekly salary, fantasy production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit rate and value metrics. They are historical player profiles, not recommendations for a specific 2026 slate. Weekly Cash and GPP recommendations require current salary, matchup, injuries, ownership and slate context.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Carson Wentz (13.7 FPavg), J.J. McCarthy (12.4 FPavg), Justin Jefferson (11.9 FPavg), Aaron Jones (9.9 FPavg), Jordan Addison (9.7 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Cover 3 was the most common charted look Minnesota faced (155 plays, 27.0 percent) and the highest team output in the table: 283 full-PPR points, 1.82 per play. Justin Jefferson led that shell with 85; Jordan Addison had 39. Cover 2 was next at 147 plays, 231 points, 1.57 per play (Jefferson 53, Addison 38). Cover 1 and Cover 4 were the lowest per-play marks among the volume shells: 1.36 and 1.27. Nailor led Cover 1 scoring in 2025 with 44 points; Jefferson had 38. Cover 0 was a 16-play sample at 3.19 per play, with Oliver (10) and Hockenson (8) as the listed leaders. Cover 9 sat at 0.56 per play on 16 snaps.

Skill adds: Jauan Jennings (WR) and Kyler Murray (QB).

Skill losses: Jalen Nailor (WR) to the Raiders, C.J. Ham (FB), Rondale Moore (WR), Ben Sims (TE) to the Dolphins, Ty Chandler (RB) to the Saints, Brett Rypien (QB), and John Wolford (QB).

Skill draft picks: Max Bredeson (FB, Rd 5, Michigan) and Demond Claiborne (RB, Rd 6, Wake Forest).

2025 DFS Profile — Cash (small sample): Kyler Murray's 2025 sample is Arizona: five games, 161 attempts, minus-1.2 percent CPOE, plus-0.04 EPA per dropback, a 16.6 DraftKings average, a 14.1 floor, an 18.3 ceiling, around $6,100. That is a short Cardinals board with a tight floor-to-ceiling band, not a volatile GPP spike. He is Minnesota's starter.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Justin Jefferson remained Minnesota's clearest volume receiver despite an uneven passing season. His 141 targets and 25.7% NFL+ target share provided the strongest workload foundation in the offense, while his four Slate Hits showed that the floor did not eliminate tournament ceiling. He enters 2026 as Kyler Murray's primary receiving option.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Jordan Addison carried the more volatile downfield profile, averaging 14.4 air yards per target with a lower weekly floor than Jefferson. His vertical role and one Slate Hit made him better suited to tournament-style construction than a pure floor play in the 2025 sample. Nailor's departure and Jauan Jennings' arrival change the supporting cast, but Addison remains a primary vertical option entering 2026.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Aaron Jones averaged 10.1 DraftKings points in his 12-game sample with a 15.7-point ceiling but no Slate Hits under the RB8 threshold. His receiving involvement preserved tournament utility, but Jordan Mason's rushing volume and the committee limited the workload that usually supports a Cash profile.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Jordan Mason led the backfield with 159 carries in 16 games, six rushing touchdowns, and 48.5 red-zone fantasy points. The DraftKings row is an 8.4 average, a 4.2 floor, a 14.6 ceiling, one Slate Hit, around $5,700. That is workhorse volume with a soft weekly floor, not a Cash lock next to Jones.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: T.J. Hockenson had 66 targets, a 16.7 percent share, plus-11.8 reception EPA, a 7.5 DraftKings average, a 4.6 floor, an 11.9 ceiling, one Slate Hit (TE5), around $3,500 and 2.12 fantasy points per thousand. Cheap tournament tight end with real volume, not a floor play.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Jauan Jennings's 2025 sample is San Francisco: 15 games, 90 targets, a 19.8 percent target share, 10.2 air yards per target, minus-7.6 Rec EPA, a 12.4 DraftKings average, a 3.6 floor, a 19.9 ceiling, around $4,900. That is real target volume with a volatile weekly floor. He is the veteran add next to Jefferson and Addison after Nailor left, not a second alpha.

Inside Scoop

Minnesota enters 2026 as one of Sharp’s higher-variance teams. The defense kept opponents from generating explosive plays in 2025, but the offense finished last in interceptions and absorbed 60 sacks. Murray winning the starting job gives Kevin O’Connell a different mobility profile at quarterback, while Jefferson, Addison and Jennings provide a strong receiving foundation.

The path past Sharp’s 8.5-win forecast is straightforward: reduce the negative plays that buried the 2025 offense without giving back too much of the defensive efficiency or special-teams edge. Sharp separately assigns Minnesota a C grade for Penalties & Discipline, but that grade should not be read as an overall evaluation of the roster. If the sacks and turnovers decline, Minnesota has enough receiving talent and coaching stability to outperform the 8.5-win projection. If those problems remain, the Vikings could again depend heavily on defense and special teams to keep games within reach.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.