NFL 2026 PREVIEW: NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

The New Orleans Saints enter 2026 after a 6-11 finish that produced 18.0 points per game (28th) and allowed 22.5 (16th). That scoring split showed up in the betting window too: 5-12 against the spread and five overs against 12 unders. Sharp's forecast is 7.5 wins and a second-place NFC South finish, with the league's second-easiest schedule on a scale where 1 is the easiest slate. Sharp's preseason betting snapshot listed New Orleans as a 1.9-point underdog on the season, 0.7-point favorites at home, and 4.7-point underdogs on the road, with five games as a favorite and 12 as an underdog.

That climb has to come through the trenches. Sharp ranks the offensive line 16th as the club's strongest positional group and the front seven 28th as the weakest. Tyler Shough is the quarterback after a late-2025 run that earned him the job; Kellen Moore is the head coach Sharp ranks 17th. New Orleans opened 0-1 with a 31-30 overtime loss at Detroit, but Shough's 410-yard, three-touchdown performance and Olave's career-best 182 receiving yards added an encouraging first data point to the preseason outlook.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: David Edwards (LG), Travis Etienne (RB), Kaden Elliss (LB), Noah Fant (TE), Ryan Wright (P), Martin Emerson (CB), and Daniel Carlson (K); Tyree Wilson (EDGE) (via trade).

Key Departures: Alontae Taylor (CB) to the Titans, Demario Davis (LB) to the Jets, Taysom Hill (QB), Foster Moreau (TE) to the Texans, Luke Fortner (C) to the Panthers, Jonathan Bullard (IDL) to the Cowboys, Will Clapp (C), Jonah Williams (IDL) to the Cardinals, Jack Stoll (TE) to the Browns, Ugochukwu Amadi (CB), Michael Davis (CB), Dante Pettis (WR), Samori Toure (WR), Evan Hull (RB) to the Texans, Kai Kroeger (P) to the Texans, Mason Pline (TE), and Landon Young (RT) to the Jets.

Kellen Moore is in his second season as head coach, with Doug Nussmeier in his first as offensive coordinator and Brandon Staley back as defensive coordinator. The offense runs through Tyler Shough, with Spencer Rattler as QB2 and Zach Wilson as QB3. Travis Etienne and Alvin Kamara are co-listed atop the running back chart; Kamara was inactive for the Detroit opener. Noah Fant signed at tight end after Moreau, Stoll, and Pline left. Daniel Carlson signed August 24 and is the kicker, with Ryan Wright punting after Kai Kroeger left for the Texans. David Edwards signed at left guard.

The front seven has to replace Demario Davis (Jets) plus Jonathan Bullard (Cowboys) and Jonah Williams (Cardinals). Cameron Jordan is on the 53-man roster after Sharp recorded his June return; he was inactive at Detroit. Tyree Wilson arrived via trade. Kaden Elliss signed in free agency. Alontae Taylor left for the Titans, Michael Davis and Ugochukwu Amadi also left, and Martin Emerson signed at corner. Jordyn Tyson is on IR designated to return. Devin Neal, Dillon Radunz, Bryan Bresee, and Audric Estimé are on IR.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

New Orleans opened the 2026 draft with Arizona State wide receiver Jordyn Tyson at eighth overall. Warren Sharp calls that a calculated risk: Tyson played only 33 games across four seasons at Colorado and Arizona State, with knee and hamstring injuries in the mix, and his career catch rate sat 1.1% below expected. He liked the size, speed, and physicality as a big-slot and outside piece next to Chris Olave. Tyson went on IR designated to return at cutdown, so that complementary role did not show up in Week 1. Day 2 went to the interior with Georgia defensive tackle Christen Miller at pick 42 after Bullard and Jonah Williams left the defensive line.

Round 3 brought Georgia tight end Oscar Delp at pick 73; Delp was inactive for the Detroit opener. Day 3 filled supplemental spots: Auburn guard Jeremiah Wright (132), North Dakota State wide receiver Bryce Lance (136), Ohio State safety Lorenzo Styles Jr. (172), LSU wide receiver Barion Brown (190), and Iowa cornerback TJ Hall (219). Brown is listed as a first-team wideout and handled both punt and kickoff returns in Week 1.

Sharp Forecasts New Orleans Saints with 7.5 Wins

Over Case: The over leans on the calendar first. New Orleans played the sixth-easiest slate in 2025 and still went 6-11; Sharp has the 2026 slate as the second-easiest, and the Saints were 6-5 against non-playoff teams a year ago. Tyler Shough was not overwhelmed as a rookie (23rd of 33 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per play, 20th in success rate), and Sharp's talent case is Etienne, first-round Jordyn Tyson, Delp, Lance, and Brown around Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson.

Under Case: The under starts with an offense that lacked explosives and chain-moving consistency. New Orleans ranked 23rd in 10-plus-yard play rate, last in 20-plus-yard play rate, 26th in offensive success rate, 32nd in red-zone touchdown rate (44.4% vs. a 57.3% NFL average), and 32nd in field-goal percentage (71.4%). Etienne's Jacksonville tape was mixed among 43 backs with 150-plus touches (27th in yards per carry at 4.3, 33rd in zero-or-negative rush rate). The Saints were 31st in yards per carry (3.7). Third-down defense was a plus (34.3% allowed, third, vs. 39.5% NFL average) that Sharp flags as a regression risk. The front seven remains Sharp's biggest ranking concern: Demario Davis, Jonathan Bullard, and Jonah Williams are gone, and Tyree Wilson and Kaden Elliss are the new pieces.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -7 days.

Sharp's timing board hands New Orleans a mixed rest profile across the campaign. On the cumulative ledger, the Saints land at minus-seven net rest days compared to their opponents, ranking 28th across the league in net rest edge. That bottom-tier standing is paired with a 28th-place ranking in short-week road games and a 25th-place ranking in negated byes, alongside ranking 19th in games off road Sunday or Monday Night Football. At the same time, the board credits New Orleans with a number-one prep rank and a number-one rest rank on Sharp's comparative scale. The calendar features six individual matchups bearing a non-zero rest differential against their opponents over the course of the season.

Those weekly margins create noticeable swings on Sharp's week-by-week rest-edge chart during the opening half of the slate. The Saints navigate neutral timing through the opening three weeks before facing a negative three-day rest deficit when hosting the Falcons on Monday Night Football in Week 4. New Orleans remains at a disadvantage the following week, ceding a negative one-day margin at home against the Vikings in Week 5. The script flips substantially following an even-rest Week 6 trip to the Giants, an international home game against the Steelers in Week 7, and a Week 8 bye, as the Saints emerge into Week 9 holding a plus-seven-day rest edge when hosting the Browns.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Tyler Shough (6 INT, 2 FL), Spencer Rattler (5 INT, 2 FL), Alvin Kamara (2 FL), Juwan Johnson (2 FL), Chris Olave (1 INT), Rashid Shaheed (1 FL), Taysom Hill (1 FL), Dante Pettis (1 FL). Takeaways: Pete Werner (3 FR), Jonas Sanker (2 INT, 1 FR), Kool-Aid McKinstry (3 INT), Chase Young (3 FR), Alontae Taylor (2 INT), Demario Davis (1 FR)

Ball security undercut New Orleans a year ago: 24 giveaways, 27th in the league. Interceptions thrown sat midpack at 12. Fumbles lost were the bigger hole: 12 of them, 30th in the league. Tyler Shough accounted for six interceptions and two fumbles lost, Spencer Rattler five and two. Alvin Kamara and Juwan Johnson each lost two fumbles, with Dante Pettis and Rashid Shaheed each losing one. The net was minus-four.

The defense finished 14th with 20 takeaways, including 10 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries. That recovery count ranked fourth. Kool-Aid McKinstry had three interceptions, Jonas Sanker two picks and a recovery, and Pete Werner and Chase Young three recoveries apiece. Alontae Taylor's two interceptions and Demario Davis's recovery leave with those players.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Tyler Shough 195 yards; Spencer Rattler 104 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 43/814 ≈ 5.3% of shotgun plays; 6/219 ≈ 2.7% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Cameron Jordan (10.5), Chase Young (10), Carl Granderson (6), Nathan Shepherd (3)

New Orleans surrendered 49 sacks in 2025, 25th in the league. Tyler Shough lost 195 yards to sacks; Spencer Rattler lost 104. Forty-three of those sacks came across 814 shotgun plays (5.3% of all shotgun plays, including runs) and six across 219 under-center plays (2.7%). Those shares mix runs into the denominator.

The defense recorded 45 sacks, 10th. Cameron Jordan had 10.5, Chase Young 10, Carl Granderson 6, Nathan Shepherd 3. Cover 3 accounted for 20 of those sacks, Cover 2 for 10, Cover 1 for 6, Cover 6 for 4, Cover 0 for 2, and Cover 4 for 2. Four-man rushes produced 30 sacks, five-rusher calls 12, and six-rusher calls 3.

Return Touchdowns

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 1 (#19) — Tory Horton (punt return).

Kickoff returner Kendre Miller: 16 returns for 393 yards.

Punt returner Dante Pettis: 13 returns for 79 yards.

Punt returns 24 for 219 yards; kickoff returns 66 for 1665 yards.

New Orleans did not score a punt or kickoff return touchdown in 2025 and allowed one, Tory Horton's punt-return score. Kendre Miller led the listed kickoff-return sample (16 for 393 yards) and Dante Pettis the punt-return sample (13 for 79). The 2026 return jobs belong to Barion Brown, who is listed as both PR1 and KR1.

Penalties

Offense: 70 penalties for 486 yards (#26). Most common: False Start (30), Offensive Holding (21), Illegal Shift (4). Most flags in Shotgun (25), Under Center (6). Most flagged players: Kelvin Banks Jr. (9), Dillon Radunz (7), Taliese Fuaga (6).

Defense: 48 penalties for 434 yards (#18), including 3 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Holding (6), Defensive Offside (5). Most flags on Cover 3 (8), Cover 1 (5), Cover 2 (3). Most flagged players: Kool-Aid McKinstry (4), Alontae Taylor (4), Nathan Shepherd (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Discipline tilted toward the offense. New Orleans drew 118 penalties for 920 yards, 24th on the HackingDFS board where rank 1 is the lowest flag count. Defensive penalties (including three special-teams offensive holdings) were 48 flags for 434 yards, 18th. The offense was 70 for 486 yards, 26th. False start (30) and offensive holding (21) led the type list. Shotgun accounted for 25 of the offensive flags and under center 6. Kelvin Banks Jr. (9), Dillon Radunz (7), and Taliese Fuaga (6) led individual flags.

On defense, Cover 3 had eight flags, Cover 1 five, Cover 2 three. Defensive pass interference (8), defensive holding (6), and defensive offside (5) led the types. Kool-Aid McKinstry and Alontae Taylor each drew four flags.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 805 plays, 41.9% success, -0.05 EPA/play (#26). Most efficient on early downs: Devaughn Vele (27 plays, 0.57 EPA/play), Brandin Cooks (16 plays, 0.49 EPA/play), Kevin Austin Jr. (16 plays, 0.34 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 126 plays, 35.7% success, -0.14 EPA/play (#28). Most efficient in the red zone: Juwan Johnson (8 plays, 0.62 EPA/play), Tyler Shough (11 plays, 0.54 EPA/play), Chris Olave (15 plays, 0.32 EPA/play).

Early downs were a grind: 805 plays, 41.9% success, −0.05 EPA/play, 26th in EPA. The best per-play marks in that sample were Devaughn Vele (27 plays, 0.57 EPA/play), Brandin Cooks (16, 0.49), and Kevin Austin Jr. (16, 0.34).

Inside the 20 the PBP board is 126 plays, 35.7% success, −0.14 EPA/play, 28th. Juwan Johnson had 0.62 EPA/play on eight red-zone plays, Tyler Shough 0.54 on 11, Chris Olave 0.32 on 15. Sharp's red-zone touchdown rate was 44.4%, last in the league.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 1.4 (#9); they passed 57.7% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Tyler Shough (43.8% success on 356 pass plays), Spencer Rattler (44.1% success on 272 pass plays).

On rushes: Alvin Kamara (32.1% success on 131 rush plays), Devin Neal (35.1% success on 57 rush plays), Taysom Hill (36.5% success on 52 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

New Orleans threw a lot: 635 pass plays (fifth) against 429 rush plays (23rd), a 59.7% pass rate (sixth) and 40.3% rush rate (27th). Neutral downs still leaned pass, 1.4 PROE (ninth) and a 57.7% pass share. Efficiency did not follow the volume. Pass plays averaged 5.87 yards (22nd) at 43.8% success (20th). Rushes averaged 3.77 yards (31st) at 39.4% success (29th).

On pass plays, Spencer Rattler posted 44.1% success on 272 and Tyler Shough 43.8% on 356. On PBP rush plays, Taysom Hill was 36.5% on 52, Devin Neal 35.1% on 57, and Alvin Kamara 32.1% on 131.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

The Saints produced only 38 explosive gains of 20-plus yards for 1,247 total yards on offense, ranking 32nd in raw explosive-play count. Passing accounted for almost all of the big-play yardage, delivering 33 explosive connections for 1,102 yards against just five runs of 20 or more yards for 145 yards. Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson paced the unit with 11 explosive catches apiece, generating 413 and 332 yards respectively. Rashid Shaheed contributed three big gains through the air for 152 yards, while Dante Pettis added three for 80 yards. Tyler Shough provided the rare spark on the ground with two explosive scrambles for 63 rushing yards, alongside two explosive receptions each from Alvin Kamara for 48 yards and Brandin Cooks for 41 yards, plus a 36-yard catch by Kevin Austin Jr. When attacking opposing coverage schemes, New Orleans found its highest raw volume against Cover 2, generating 12 explosive plays for 453 yards, followed by eight big gains against Cover 3 for 250 yards, five against Cover 1 for 142 yards, four against Cover 4 for 135 yards, three against Cover 6 for 99 yards, and two against Cover 9 for 52 yards.

Defensively, New Orleans surrendered 55 explosive plays for 1,615 total yards, ranking 12th in raw count of explosive gains allowed. Most of those concessions occurred through the air, with 44 explosive completions allowed for 1,310 yards alongside 11 explosive rushes for 305 yards, though these raw tallies reflect volume rather than per-snap rates. Kayshon Boutte topped all opposing playmakers by securing three explosive receptions for 75 yards against the secondary. Jaxon Smith-Njigba hauled in two big catches for 74 yards, Jauan Jennings collected two for 71 yards, Jalen Coker recorded two for 56 yards, Davante Adams logged two for 49 yards, and Tetairoa McMillan posted two for 47 yards, while DeMario Douglas struck for a 53-yard catch and Trey Benson broke a 52-yard rush. By defensive scheme, the highest raw concession total occurred in Cover 3, where the Saints allowed 17 explosive plays for 477 yards, followed by Cover 1 with nine explosives for 268 yards, Cover 2 with seven for 232 yards, Cover 4 with seven for 215 yards, Cover 6 with four for 92 yards, and Cover 0 with two for 69 yards.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

New Orleans built the 2025 offense out of 11 personnel on 794 plays, 1.39 full-PPR fantasy points per play, with Kamara, Juwan Johnson, Olave, Brandin Cooks, and Rashid Shaheed in the usage group. Twelve personnel was 175 plays at 0.75 FP/play (Kamara, Johnson, Olave, Jack Stoll, Vele). Thirteen personnel was a 39-play sample at 1.15 FP/play (Kendre Miller, Johnson, Stoll, Foster Moreau, Austin).

Shotgun was 814 plays (76.5%) at 1.40 FP/play. Under center was 219 (20.6%) at 0.73. Pistol was 31 (2.9%) at 0.63. RPOs, also counted inside those alignments, were 64 plays (6.0%) at 0.81.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #7; play-action rank #27 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Pre-snap motion showed up on 656 plays, a 61.7% rate that ranked seventh. Play action showed up on 124 plays, an 11.7% rate that ranked 27th. Motion plays succeeded 40.5% of the time and averaged 1.31 full-PPR fantasy points per play against 1.13 without motion. Play-action plays succeeded 41.1% of the time and averaged 1.70 against 1.18 without play action.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

New Orleans enters 2026 with Tyler Shough as the starter after he took over in Week 9 of a 1-7 start and went 5-4 down the stretch, with wins over Carolina twice, Tampa Bay, the Jets, and Tennessee. From the bye (Week 11) on, Sharp notes the Saints did not play a defense ranked above average in total defense. Over 11 appearances and nine starts Shough completed 67.6% for 2,384 yards, 10 touchdowns, and six interceptions. Among 28 recent rookies with 100-plus attempts, Sharp has him second in completion rate (68%), fourth in passing yards per game (217), and sixth in yards per attempt (7.3). Sharp's late-season caveat is the supporting cast: seven of nine starts without Kamara, eight without Olave, Shaheed traded to Seattle at the deadline, Cooks released later, and practice-squad elevations in the last three weeks. His 2025 DraftKings sample is 11 games, 16.0 average, 10.2 floor, 22.8 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, −0.05 EPA/DB, +1.4% CPOE, $4,400.

Spencer Rattler opened 2025 as the starter. His DraftKings sample is nine games, 12.6 average, 11.1 floor, 15.9 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, −0.16 EPA/DB, +2.6% CPOE, $4,800. Rattler is QB2, with Zach Wilson as QB3. Sharp ranks the quarterback room 22nd. Shough jumped 10 spots off a 2025 last-place ranking and finished second in Offensive Rookie of the Year voting. Sharp still flags that the closing stretch ran through bottom-half pass defenses.

Around Shough, David Edwards signed at left guard, Jeremiah Wright arrived at pick 132, and Chris Olave is back in the receiving core after the late-2025 absences. Foster Moreau and Jack Stoll are gone at tight end, with Noah Fant signed in free agency.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings samples. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Chris Olave was the 2025 focal point: 156 targets, a 27.0% NFL+ target share, 11.7-yard average depth of target in 16 games, +26.7 Receiving EPA, 1.71 DraftKings points per target, 109 early-down targets (26.9%), and 15 red-zone targets (28.8% share). Juwan Johnson had 102 targets in 17 games, a 19.6% share, +32.8 Receiving EPA, 7.3-yard average depth, 71 early-down targets, eight red-zone targets, and 1.80 DraftKings points per target. Together that is 258 NFL+ season targets between them.

Devaughn Vele had 39 targets, a 16.3% share, 12.3-yard average depth, +19.2 Receiving EPA, and five red-zone targets over nine games. Kevin Austin Jr. had 23 targets and a 15.2% share in five games, with Mason Tipton at 17 and 9.8% in six. Rashid Shaheed's 49 early-down targets and seven red-zone looks are 2025 Saints volume from before the deadline trade to Seattle, while Brandin Cooks had 16 early-down targets and Kamara had 29 early-down looks plus five red-zone targets. Hill (16 targets) and Stoll (11) are gone, and Pettis had 11 looks.

Sharp ranks the 2026 receivers 18th, up from 29th, after Olave's career highs in catches, yards, and touchdowns and Johnson's 800-yard season. That rank predates Tyson going on IR designated to return and Barion Brown listing as a first-team wideout.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The ground game did not create much in 2025. Alvin Kamara's NFL+ season averages are 11 games, 131 attempts, −31.6 Rush EPA, −0.8 RYOE per attempt, and a 35.1% success rate. Devin Neal's are eight games, 57 carries, −9.0 Rush EPA, −0.6 RYOE, 33.3% success. Sharp's recap board lists Kamara at 3.6 yards per carry and 31% success, Neal 3.6 and 32%. Both stayed negative in EPA.

Red-zone rushing was split. Kamara had 15 rushes and five targets (20 opportunities, one combined red-zone touchdown). Neal had five rushes and one target (six opportunities, two scores). Audric Estimé had six rushes and none. Kendre Miller scored once on five rushes. Evan Hull had three rushes before leaving for the Texans.

Sharp holds the 2026 running backs 19th. Sharp's usage note is that Kamara will probably take a smaller role after career lows in rushing yards, yards per attempt, and receptions, while Etienne arrives from Jacksonville off a 1,100-yard season. The live chart co-lists Etienne and Kamara; Kamara was inactive at Detroit, and Devin Neal and Audric Estimé are on IR.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Chris Olave 9 rec. Passing TDs: Tyler Shough 10, Spencer Rattler 8, Taysom Hill 1. Defense TDs: Justin Reid (1 def TD). Special teams: Charlie Smyth 30/42 FG, 28/28 XP.

Chris Olave scored nine receiving touchdowns. Passing touchdowns split 10 for Shough, eight for Rattler, and one for Hill. Justin Reid had the defense's only score. Charlie Smyth went 30-of-42 on field goals and 28-of-28 on extra points. Sharp stacks last in red-zone touchdown rate with last in field-goal percentage and notes the Saints trailed at some point in all 17 games, averaging 1.7 first-quarter points.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

New Orleans averaged 1.7 points in the first quarter (32nd) and 12.9 full-PPR fantasy points (31st), then 6.6 NFL points (20th) and 22.1 fantasy (18th) in the second, 3.8 (25th) and 17.5 fantasy (20th) in the third, and 5.9 NFL points (24th) with 25.2 fantasy (ninth) in the fourth.

On the allowed side, opponents scored 7.2 in the first quarter (31st-fewest allowed) and 22.1 fantasy (29th), then 8.3 (24th) and 23.8 fantasy (17th) in the second, 3.6 (ninth) and 15.1 fantasy (fourth) in the third, and 3.4 NFL points plus 13.6 fantasy in the fourth, both first on the fewest-allowed scale. Those are quarter averages.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #28, Secondary #20.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Demario Davis led the club with 143 tackles; Cameron Jordan 10.5 sacks, Chase Young 10.0 sacks, Carl Granderson 6.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Demario Davis: 6 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 3 PD; Alontae Taylor: 7 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 2 INT, 11 PD; Pete Werner: 4 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 5 PD; Jonas Sanker: 3 TFL, 2 INT, 6 PD; Kool-Aid McKinstry: 3 TFL, 3 INT, 17 PD; Justin Reid: 2 TFL, 0.5 sacks, 1 INT, 6 PD; Cameron Jordan: 15 TFL, 10.5 sacks, 2 PD; Chase Young: 11 TFL, 10.0 sacks, 4 PD; Carl Granderson: 11 TFL, 6.0 sacks, 1 INT, 4 PD.

Sharp ranks the 2026 front seven 28th and the secondary 20th. Demario Davis left for the Jets after 143 tackles and six tackles for loss. Cameron Jordan is on the 53-man roster (10.5 sacks, 15 TFL, 15 quarterback hits in 2025) and was inactive at Detroit. Chase Young had 10.0 sacks, with Granderson (57 tackles, 11 TFL, 6.0 sacks) and Shepherd (three sacks, 13 quarterback hits) in the rotation. Tyree Wilson arrived via trade. Kaden Elliss signed in free agency. Pete Werner had 81 tackles and four TFL; Danny Stutsman and Chris Rumph II are the other listed linebacker rows. Bryan Bresee is on IR.

Alontae Taylor left for the Titans after 83 tackles, seven TFL, two sacks, and 11 passes defensed. Ugochukwu Amadi and Michael Davis are gone too. Martin Emerson signed. Kool-Aid McKinstry had three interceptions, 17 passes defensed, and 76 tackles; Sharp also notes eight touchdowns allowed in coverage. Jonas Sanker had 80 tackles and two interceptions. Justin Reid had 72 tackles and six passes defensed.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Cover 3 was the volume shell at 228 snaps, 334 fantasy points allowed, and 1.46 per play (fifth-stingiest), with Cover 1 at 93 snaps, 161 points, and 1.73 per play (16th). Cover 2 sat at 86 snaps, 178 points, and 2.07 per play (31st), Cover 4 at 52 snaps, 156 points, and 3.01 per play (31st), Cover 6 at 47 snaps and 1.51 (10th), and Cover 9 at 26 snaps and 1.01 (first) on a small sample. Those are 2025 allowed rates by shell.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Charlie Smyth: 30/42 FG, 28/28 PAT.

Kai Kroeger led with 56 punts (18 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Kendre Miller: 16 returns for 393 yards.

Punt returner Dante Pettis: 13 returns for 79 yards.

Special teams tackler Isaiah Stalbird: 14 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Charlie Smyth handled placekicking in 2025, 30-of-42 (71.4%), 28-of-28 on extras, seven makes from 50-plus, long of 57. Sharp is harsher on the Saints' 2025 kicking as a whole: Blake Grupe was waived in Week 12 after 18-of-26, and the team still finished last in field-goal percentage. Kai Kroeger punted 56 times, 18 inside the 20, two blocked, then left for Houston.

The 2026 specialists are kicker Daniel Carlson (signed August 24, on the 53-man roster, and kicked in Week 1), punter Ryan Wright, long snapper Zach Wood, and Barion Brown as both the primary punt returner and kickoff returner. Kendre Miller's 16 kickoff returns for 393 yards and Dante Pettis's 13 punt returns for 79 are the 2025 samples. Isaiah Stalbird had 14 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Penalty Analysis

Sharp's Penalty Analysis and Discipline grade for the New Orleans Saints is a B-. Sharp's situational notes are a different scorecard from the HackingDFS defensive penalty counts. Sharp has New Orleans third in pre-snap penalty average, with false starts 61.5% of those, second in false starts per game, holding-plus-false-start at 46% of Sharp's overall flags and the highest per-game average on that pairing, sixth in penalties per game, a top-five penalized home club, and the second-highest first-quarter penalty average. Forty-seven percent of Sharp's infractions landed after halftime.

At home the defense ranked third in drawn offensive holding and ninth in drawn false starts. Automatic first downs via penalty were midpack for the season, with 76% of them in the first half. On third down the defense was a top-five unit for surrendering automatic first downs via penalty.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 70 penalties for 486 yards (#26). Most common: False Start (30), Offensive Holding (21), Illegal Shift (4). Most flags in Shotgun (25), Under Center (6). Most flagged players: Kelvin Banks Jr. (9), Dillon Radunz (7), Taliese Fuaga (6).

Defense: 48 penalties for 434 yards (#18), including 3 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Holding (6), Defensive Offside (5). Most flags on Cover 3 (8), Cover 1 (5), Cover 2 (3). Most flagged players: Kool-Aid McKinstry (4), Alontae Taylor (4), Nathan Shepherd (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Offensive flags were headed by 30 false starts and 21 offensive holding calls, with four illegal shifts, three ineligible downfield passes, and two offensive offsides.

The defensive type list is eight defensive pass interference, six defensive holding, five offside, four roughing the passer, and four neutral-zone infractions.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Chris Olave WR12, Travis Etienne RB16.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary sample (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They describe 2025 scoring shape, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Chris Olave (16.8 FPavg), Tyler Shough (14.3 FPavg), Rashid Shaheed (11.6 FPavg), Spencer Rattler (11.0 FPavg), Juwan Johnson (10.6 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Chris Olave led every high-volume shell on the offense's coverage table, with Cover 3 at 192 plays (28.6%) for 283 full-PPR points at 1.47 per play (Olave 63), Cover 2 at 161 plays (24.0%) for 300 at 1.86 (Olave 75), Cover 1 at 100 plays (14.9%) for 187 at 1.87 (Olave 56), Cover 4 at 104 plays (15.5%) for 178 at 1.71 (Olave 30), and Cover 6 at 45 plays (6.7%) for 75 at 1.67 (Olave 23). Those are cumulative player points inside team snaps facing the shell.

Juwan Johnson was second on those same shells (57 against Cover 3, 39 against Cover 2, 30 against Cover 1, 27 against Cover 4). Cover 0 was 17 plays (2.5%) at 3.30 per play and 56 total, with Olave 14 and Vele 9. Dante Pettis and Samori Toure are among the 2025 skill losses, Noah Fant signed in free agency, and Barion Brown is the listed first-team wideout while Tyson is on IR designated to return.

2 Man was 34 plays (5.1%) at 0.89 per play and 30 total, the only shell where a running back led: Kamara 9, Olave 6.

Skill adds: Travis Etienne (RB) and Noah Fant (TE).

Skill losses: Taysom Hill (QB), Foster Moreau (TE) to the Texans, Jack Stoll (TE) to the Browns, Dante Pettis (WR), Samori Toure (WR), Evan Hull (RB) to the Texans, and Mason Pline (TE).

Skill draft picks: Jordyn Tyson (WR, Rd 1, Arizona State), Oscar Delp (TE, Rd 3, Georgia), Bryce Lance (WR, Rd 4, North Dakota State), and Barion Brown (WR, Rd 6, LSU).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Chris Olave, Sharp WR12, in 16 Saints DraftKings games posted a 16.7 average, a 12.4 floor, a 28.9 ceiling, five WR12 Slate Hits, $6,100, and 2.86 FP/$. The floor and the five spike weeks are the dual case. He also led the coverage-shell scoring column.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Juwan Johnson in 17 Saints games posted a 10.8 average, a 7.8 floor, a 15.9 ceiling, four TE5 Slate Hits, $3,900, and 2.88 FP/$.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Tyler Shough in 11 Saints games posted a 16.0 average, a 10.2 floor, a 22.8 ceiling, and zero Slate Hits at $4,400. The Cash case is that 10.2 floor, not the hit count.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Spencer Rattler in nine Saints games posted a 12.6 average, an 11.1 floor, a 15.9 ceiling, and zero Slate Hits at $4,800. The 11.1 floor is the Cash case.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Travis Etienne's last club was Jacksonville. His 2025 Jaguars sample is 17 DraftKings games, 15.3 average, a 9.5 floor, a 21.6 ceiling, four RB8 Slate Hits, $5,900, and 2.55 FP/$, on 260 carries, 1,107 rushing yards, −26.8 Rush EPA, and a 36.2% success rate. Sharp lists him RB16.

Noah Fant's last club was Cincinnati. His 2025 Bengals sample is 13 DraftKings games, 7.6 average, a 2.5 floor, a 14.4 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, $3,100, and 2.39 FP/$, with 15 NFL+ games, 41 targets, a 20.5% target share, 3.4 air yards per target, and −13.2 Receiving EPA.

Inside Scoop

Sharp's preseason forecast is 7.5 wins and a second-place NFC South finish after a 6-11 year that landed 23rd in Sharp's rankings and third in the division. Kellen Moore's second season turns on Tyler Shough's development, and Sharp notes a nine-win NFC South might be enough.

New Orleans opened 0-1, 31-30 in overtime at Detroit, with Shough throwing for 410 yards and three touchdowns and Olave posting a career-best 182 receiving yards. Tyson is on IR designated to return, so Barion Brown is the listed first-team wideout and the Week 1 punt and kickoff returner, while Etienne and Kamara are co-listed and Kamara, Jordan, and Delp were inactive, with Neal, Radunz, Bresee, and Estimé on IR.

The 2025 tape was 5-12 against the spread and 5-12 to the under: New Orleans rarely covered, and most games stayed under the total. Sharp's preseason betting snapshot listed them as underdogs in 12 of 17, a 1.9-point underdog on the season, 0.7-point favorites at home and 4.7-point underdogs on the road. If you want a steady floor or you play cash games, Shough, Rattler, and Johnson are the Saints to draft and target. If you want upside in tournaments, Olave posted the spike weeks, and Etienne is the incoming back who mixed a floor with 21-point games in Jacksonville.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.