NFL 2026 PREVIEW: PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Pittsburgh is 2-2 after consecutive three-point division games, winning against Cincinnati and losing 27-24 at Cleveland. They rallied from 21-7 down, tied it at 24 with 1:42 left, and Cleveland won on a 56-yard field goal with 10 seconds remaining. Last season they finished 10-7, scoring 23.4 points per game (15th) and allowing 22.8 (17th), with an 8-9 mark against the spread and a 10-7 record to the over. Warren Sharp's preseason forecast was 8.5 wins and third in the AFC North against a schedule ranked 19th in difficulty (1 = easiest, 32 = hardest). His preseason betting snapshot installed the Steelers as 0.6-point underdogs on average, minus-0.9 at home and plus-1.9 on the road, favorites in seven games and underdogs in ten.

The roster tilt is not subtle. Sharp ranks both the front seven and the secondary seventh, then ranks the quarterbacks 27th behind a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers who compiled the league's most conservative passing profile — 6.0 air yards per target, 2.52 seconds to throw, and just 25.5% of his attempts traveling 10 or more yards. Mike McCarthy is the new head coach — Pittsburgh's first offensive-minded hire in that chair since 1969, ranked 21st, and the man calling the plays — which is why the 2026 question is whether that defensive floor still covers an offense that bullied non-playoff teams and went 1-5 against clubs that made it.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Jamel Dean (CB), Rico Dowdle (RB), Jaquan Brisker (S), Sebastian Joseph-Day (IDL), and Brock Hoffman (RG); Michael Pittman, Jr. (WR) (via trade).

Key Departures: Jonnu Smith (TE), Isaac Seumalo (LG) to the Cardinals, Broderick Jones (T) to the Cowboys, Joey Porter Jr. (CB) to the Cowboys, Kenneth Gainwell (RB) to the Buccaneers, Kaleb Johnson (RB) to the Packers, Adam Thielen (WR), James Pierre (CB) to the Vikings, Daniel Ekuale (IDL), Dean Lowry (IDL), Connor Heyward (TE) to the Raiders, Calvin Anderson (LT), Miles Killebrew (S) to the Buccaneers, Isaiahh Loudermilk (IDL), Calvin Austin III (WR) to the Giants, Chuck Clark (S) to the Lions, Andrus Peat (LG), Kyle Dugger (S) to the Bengals, Corliss Waitman (P) to the 49ers, Jabrill Peppers (S), Tre Flowers (CB), Donald Parham (TE), Max Scharping (RG), Skylar Thompson (QB) to the Ravens, Jeremiah Moon (EDGE), Jacob Slade (IDL), and Scott Miller (WR) to the Bears.

Brian Angelichio is the new offensive coordinator; Patrick Graham has the defense. The hire is inseparable from Aaron Rodgers: Sharp's read is that McCarthy made a Rodgers return more likely after Mike Tomlin walked away the day after a 30-6 Wild Card loss to Houston, ending 19 seasons without a losing record and seven straight playoff defeats.

The skill-group rebuild sits around that quarterback. Pittsburgh traded for Michael Pittman Jr. to work opposite DK Metcalf and signed Rico Dowdle as Warren's complement after Kenneth Gainwell left for Tampa Bay. Broderick Jones was traded to Dallas on August 30, and Kaleb Johnson went to Green Bay. The current line is Troy Fautanu, Mason McCormick, Zach Frazier, Brock Hoffman, and Max Iheanachor. McCarthy changed the right side before Week 3, starting Hoffman at right guard and Iheanachor at right tackle in place of Spencer Anderson and Dylan Cook, and that five-man group produced Pittsburgh's best offensive game of the season. Hoffman and Iheanachor started again at Cleveland. Mason Rudolph is the experienced backup after Skylar Thompson left for Baltimore. On defense, Jamel Dean, Jaquan Brisker, and Sebastian Joseph-Day are the veteran adds against a secondary that lost Kyle Dugger, Chuck Clark, Miles Killebrew, and Jabrill Peppers. Pittsburgh traded Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas on October 1 for a 2027 sixth-round pick and a 2028 second-round pick; he had been inactive for all three Steelers games before the deal.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Pittsburgh's 21st overall pick addresses the right-tackle void created by Fautanu's move to left tackle, but Sharp considered the selection of Arizona State's Max Iheanachor a reach. He made his first NFL start there in Week 3 and held the job through Week 4, leaving the evaluation dependent on college film. His 4.6% blown-block rate last year ranked in the 65th percentile—an improvement over his previous 7.9%—but it's still a concerning profile for a tackle being asked to start immediately.

The rest of the class is complementary depth. Alabama wideout Germie Bernard (47th) is the piece Sharp actually likes at receiver, capable of playing slot or outside alongside Metcalf and Pittman. Third-round quarterback Drew Allar is developmental and a step down in Sharp's estimation from last year's sixth-rounder Will Howard. Daylen Everette brings corner depth after a strong Georgia senior season. Gennings Dunker was drafted as a guard; Pittsburgh placed him on injured reserve September 26. Kaden Wetjen was drafted in the fourth round for return work. Riley Nowakowski is a fullback. Rubio, Spears-Jennings, and Heidenreich are late-round developmental names; Sharp did not project them as 2026 difference-makers from the preseason board.

Sharp Forecasts Pittsburgh Steelers with 8.5 Wins

Over Case: Pittsburgh led at halftime 11 times last season and won only seven of those games. That conversion gap is the over's actual opening: if McCarthy turns more of those leads into wins, 8.5 undersells a roster that already spent most Sundays in front. Sharp's other over argument runs through the offensive line. The current five is Fautanu, McCormick, Frazier, Hoffman, and Iheanachor after McCarthy changed the right side before Week 3. If that group holds, the deciding variable becomes whether McCarthy can actually finish games when Pittsburgh has halftime leads.

Under Case: The ten-win season was not a team punching up. Pittsburgh went 9-2 against clubs that missed the playoffs and 1-5 against clubs that made them, then lost 30-6 at home in the Wild Card round. They were tied for third in one-score wins with seven, lost only three one-score games, and posted a .700 win rate in those scripts. Pittsburgh's plus-12 turnover margin came from nine interceptions thrown, six fumbles lost for 15 giveaways against 27 takeaways and a plus-5.1 net fumble-recovery mark over expectation—numbers that represent unusual luck rather than sustainable advantage, making them regression candidates, not reasons to beat 8.5. Aaron Rodgers ranked 24th in EPA per play among 33 qualified quarterbacks and 32nd in success rate, with the league's fastest time to throw and the shortest average depth of target. An offense that lived on weaker opponents, plus takeaway luck on the other side of the ball, is the under's actual argument.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -6 days.

Pittsburgh's calendar is a minus-6 season net rest edge, 27th in the league, with eight weeks carrying a non-zero rest differential. Raw rest still ranks 10th. The opener at home against Atlanta was even. Week 2 at New England was the first real hole, a minus-4 on the road, and Pittsburgh lost that one 20-3. Cincinnati at home was even. Pittsburgh lost 27-24 at Cleveland on the short-week Thursday. Next is the plus-3 rest edge at home against Indianapolis on October 11, then a minus-3 at Tampa Bay before the Week 9 bye.

Prep, short-week road games, negated byes, and games coming off the road on Sunday or Monday night all sit in the bottom third. The immediate rest benefit is Indianapolis. The heavier rest disadvantages are still ahead.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Aaron Rodgers (7 INT, 1 FL), Mason Rudolph (2 INT, 1 FL), Kenny Gainwell (1 FL), Roman Wilson (1 FL), Darnell Washington (1 FL). Takeaways: T.J. Watt (2 INT, 2 FR), Nick Herbig (1 INT, 1 FR), Brandin Echols (2 INT), Payton Wilson (1 INT, 1 FR), Jack Sawyer (2 INT), Kyle Dugger (2 INT)

Pittsburgh finished fourth in giveaways (15) and fourth in takeaways (27) for a plus-12 turnover margin, with nine interceptions thrown (ninth) and six fumbles lost (sixth). Aaron Rodgers accounted for seven of those interceptions and one lost fumble, Mason Rudolph added two interceptions and one lost fumble, and Gainwell, Roman Wilson, and Darnell Washington each lost one. That turnover profile belongs with the under case: Pittsburgh recovered 5.1 more fumbles than expected, a mark Sharp views as unsustainable luck rather than organizational edge, making the plus-12 margin a regression candidate rather than proof of sustainable advantage.

The defense collected 15 interceptions (eighth) and 12 fumble recoveries (second), with T.J. Watt at two interceptions and two recoveries, Nick Herbig and Payton Wilson at one of each, and Brandin Echols and Jack Sawyer at two interceptions apiece. Kyle Dugger's two interceptions left with him for Cincinnati. Jaquan Brisker and Jamel Dean are the coverage adds. That plus-12 margin is vulnerable to regression if Graham's secondary can't solidify quickly.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Aaron Rodgers 180 yards; Mason Rudolph 12 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 23/637 ≈ 3.6% of shotgun plays; 7/321 ≈ 2.2% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Alex Highsmith (9.5), Nick Herbig (7.5), T.J. Watt (7), Keeanu Benton (5.5)

Pittsburgh took 31 sacks—ninth fewest—because Rodgers got the ball out. He threw in under 2.0 seconds on a league-high 38% of dropbacks, and Sharp notes Pittsburgh allowed the league's lowest pressure rate at 25%. Sharp still ranked the line 21st entering the season. The same quick release that kept sacks down also meant fewer downfield chances. Rodgers has now taken 13 sacks through four games, including five at Cleveland. Hoffman and Iheanachor remain the right-side starters; one good Cincinnati night did not settle the protection issue.

The defense recorded 48 sacks, sixth in the league, led by Alex Highsmith (9.5), Nick Herbig (7.5), T.J. Watt (7), and Keeanu Benton (5.5). Fourteen came in Cover 3 and 14 in Cover 1, with four-man rushes accounting for 29 of the 48. The 2026 front seven Sharp ranks seventh is mostly the same pressure group.

Return Touchdowns

Kickoff returner Kenny Gainwell: 26 returns for 633 yards.

Punt returner Calvin Austin III: 15 returns for 101 yards.

Punt returns 28 for 247 yards; kickoff returns 63 for 1524 yards.

Pittsburgh scored zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns and allowed zero. Kenneth Gainwell handled 26 kickoffs for 633 yards and Calvin Austin III returned 15 punts for 101, inside team totals of 63 kickoff returns for 1,524 yards and 28 punt returns for 247. The coverage side of that bargain mattered as much as the returns: nobody flipped a game against them on a return score.

Both 2025 returners are gone. Wetjen has the kick and punt return jobs, and Cameron Johnston is the punter. The 2025 baseline is field position without a splash score.

Penalties

Offense: 52 penalties for 418 yards (#3). Most common: Offensive Holding (12), False Start (12), Offensive Pass Interference (7). Most flags in Shotgun (16), Under Center (9). Most flagged players: DK Metcalf (8), Ben Skowronek (4), Jonnu Smith (4).

Defense: 49 penalties for 385 yards (#20), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 2 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (10), Defensive Offside (7), Unnecessary Roughness (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (6), 2 Man (5). Most flagged players: Joey Porter Jr. (6), Jalen Ramsey (5), T.J. Watt (5).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

The offense was clean. Fifty-two flags for 418 yards ranked third fewest, and the team total of 101 for 803 yards ranked ninth. Offensive holding and false starts led at 12 apiece, then seven offensive pass interference calls. Across all offensive penalties, 16 came from shotgun and nine from under center. DK Metcalf had eight penalties, with Ben Skowronek and Jonnu Smith at four each.

The defense was the other half of the ledger: 49 flags for 385 yards, 20th in the league, including special-teams holdings and illegal-formation calls in that bucket. Defensive pass interference (10), defensive offside (7), and unnecessary roughness (5) led the types, with Cover 1 at 11 flags, Cover 2 six, and 2 Man five. Joey Porter Jr. had six penalties, with Jalen Ramsey and T.J. Watt at five each, so the 2025 split is a disciplined offense and a more-whistled defense.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 742 plays, 44.1% success, 0.01 EPA/play (#18). Most efficient on early downs: Pat Freiermuth (36 plays, 0.46 EPA/play), DK Metcalf (76 plays, 0.30 EPA/play), Adam Thielen (11 plays, 0.22 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 166 plays, 43.4% success, 0.01 EPA/play (#16). Most efficient in the red zone: Connor Heyward (8 plays, 1.42 EPA/play), Jonnu Smith (10 plays, 0.49 EPA/play), DK Metcalf (14 plays, 0.13 EPA/play).

Early downs ranked slightly below average: 742 plays, 44.1% success, 0.01 EPA per play, 18th overall. The efficient targets were tight end and perimeter. Pat Freiermuth led at 0.46 EPA per play on 36 early-down plays, DK Metcalf carried the volume at 0.30 EPA per play on 76, and Adam Thielen's 0.22 EPA per play on 11 plays is a 2025 sample that left with him.

The red zone was the same 0.01 EPA per play on 166 plays, 16th. Pittsburgh was mediocre in both spots, and several of the most efficient 2025 red-zone contributors are gone. Connor Heyward posted 1.42 EPA per play on eight red-zone plays and Jonnu Smith 0.49 on 10, while Metcalf was 0.13 on 14. Freiermuth and Darnell Washington are the remaining interior options. Replacing Heyward's and Smith's scoring-area efficiency is the 2026 situational question.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -1.1 (#14); they passed 54.0% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Aaron Rodgers (43.2% success on 526 pass plays), Mason Rudolph (50.0% success on 54 pass plays).

On rushes: Jaylen Warren (42.7% success on 211 rush plays), Kenny Gainwell (45.6% success on 114 rush plays), Kaleb Johnson (25.0% success on 28 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Pittsburgh passed on 59.5% of plays (seventh) across 580 pass plays and rushed 395 times (28th) at a 40.5% rate. Neutral-down pass rate over expected was minus-1.1, and they passed 54.0% of those snaps, so the overall pass lean was not a huge script-driven spike. Neutral situations were roughly balanced, even slightly run-leaning relative to expectation. Rushing success was marginally better: 44.3% (12th) against 43.8% on pass plays (19th), with 4.47 yards per rush play (17th) and 5.93 yards per pass play (19th).

Jaylen Warren carried the rush-play volume at 42.7% success on 211 plays, Kenneth Gainwell was 45.6% on 114, and Kaleb Johnson was 25.0% on 28. Aaron Rodgers' 43.2% success on 526 pass plays is the starter's sample, and Mason Rudolph's 50.0% on 54 is the backup's. Volume leaned pass. Success slightly favored the run.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

The offense generated 52 explosives for 1,649 yards (23rd)—41 passing for 1,280 yards and 11 rushing for 369. DK Metcalf was the vertical piece at 15 catches for 483 yards, and Jaylen Warren mixed six explosive rushes for 207 with two explosive catches for 103. Cover 1 produced the largest raw total they beat, 13 explosives for 393 yards, then Cover 3 (nine for 238) and Cover 2 (eight for 301). Those counts describe the shells they saw.

The defense allowed 61 explosives for 1,858 yards (18th), with 53 passing (1,591 yards) and eight rushing (267). The largest raw totals occurred in Cover 1 (14 for 505 yards) and Cover 3 (14 for 408), with Cover 2 at 12 for 326. Zay Flowers (five for 213) and Tee Higgins (four for 107) led opposing receivers, and Chase Brown had three explosive rushes for 99. Sharp's secondary assessment aligns with that downfield performance: opponents completed 54% of throws of 10-plus yards, a mark he ranked third from the bottom. Dean, Brisker, and Everette are the offseason additions meant to address that weakness.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Eleven personnel was the most-used group, 478 plays at 1.51 full-PPR points per play, with Gainwell, Washington, Metcalf, Austin, and Wilson the usage names. Twelve personnel was the heavier changeup at 325 plays and a lower 1.22 points per play. Thirteen personnel, 132 plays, paid 1.50 — almost identical to 11, on a much smaller sample with Warren and the tight ends — and 21 personnel was a 23-play look at 1.39. Eleven and 13 scored about the same. Only 12 was notably lower.

Shotgun was the most-used formation: 637 plays, 65.3%, and 1.58 points per play, while under center was 321 plays at 1.14. Pistol was rare at 17 plays. RPOs were 89 plays, 9.1% of the offense, and scored 0.84 points per play.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #15; play-action rank #25 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Pittsburgh used pre-snap motion far more than play action, and the fantasy split ran the other way. Motion was the everyday look at 55.1% of plays and paid 1.32 full-PPR points per play against 1.53 without it. Play action was only 11.8% of snaps, with a worse success rate but higher fantasy output when it was called, 1.65 against 1.38. That 2025 split created two tendencies McCarthy could adjust.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Aaron Rodgers averaged just 6.0 air yards per target on a 2.52-second release, with only 25.5% of his attempts traveling 10 or more yards. That conservative profile still kept drives alive: 65.6% completions (16th), a 4.8% touchdown rate (16th), a 1.4% interception rate (eighth), minus-0.04 EPA per dropback, and minus-0.9% CPOE. Across 16 DraftKings-tracked games he averaged 15.1 points with a 12.1 floor, a 24.6 ceiling, and zero Slate Hits at $5,300.

McCarthy already tried to expand that map. Week 1 pushed Rodgers deeper, then came the 20-3 New England loss, the 30-point Cincinnati rebound, and a 27-24 loss at Cleveland. Through four games he is 88-of-153 for 999 yards, seven touchdowns, four interceptions, a 57.5% completion rate, 6.5 yards per attempt, an 81.6 rating, and 13 sacks. Cleveland was his biggest yardage and touchdown night of the season, 22-of-40 for 299 yards and three scores, and also five sacks and two interceptions. Mason Rudolph remains the experienced backup after four DraftKings-tracked games at 3.8 points per week, and Drew Allar is the third-round developmental pick. The McCarthy offense is showing volatility, not merely a stalled short-area sample.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Warren Sharp ranks the receiving corps 22nd, and DK Metcalf is still the 2026 WR1 based on his 2025 production. He led the club with 99 targets, a 21.4% share, +26.0 receiving EPA, 9.9 air yards per target, 1.95 DraftKings points per target, and four Slate Hits. Seventy-four of those targets came on early downs; 13 were in the red zone. Calvin Austin III was the second wideout at 55 targets and minus-7.9 receiving EPA. The underneath game was a tight-end and running-back operation built for a 2.52-second release: Pat Freiermuth posted +16.7 receiving EPA on 54 targets and 2.16 DraftKings points per target at 6.0 air yards per target, Jonnu Smith matched the 54-target volume at 4.0 air yards per target and minus-1.9 receiving EPA, and Darnell Washington had 43 targets.

Pittman arrived from Indianapolis as the volume add opposite Metcalf — 111 targets, 20.9% share, +17.9 receiving EPA, 8.0 air yards per target, a 12.4 DraftKings average, and three Slate Hits — with Bernard the second-round complement Sharp wants next to those two. The first three weeks did not match that depth chart: Roman Wilson, Jaylen Warren, and Pat Freiermuth had all outgained Metcalf. Cleveland reversed it. Metcalf went 5-for-115, including a 43-yarder, after entering the game with only 98 receiving yards all season. Through four games the club now sits Metcalf 16-213-1, Wilson 14-188-2, Warren 13-143, Freiermuth 14-125-2, Washington 9-119-1, and Pittman 7-89. Wilson went 3-for-74 with a touchdown Thursday and is a real part of the 2026 passing story, not an early-season curiosity. Pittman remains surprisingly peripheral after missing Week 2 with a foot injury.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Jaylen Warren was the lead back: 211 carries in 16 games, +0.8 RYOE per attempt, 44.6% success, minus-5.9 rush EPA. He had 40 red-zone rushes and five red-zone targets, five combined scores on 45 opportunities. Kaleb Johnson's 28 carries in 10 games were a limited sample — minus-9.7 rush EPA, minus-0.6 RYOE, 25.0% success, zero combined red-zone scores on four chances — and he is now in Green Bay.

Kenneth Gainwell took the other red-zone job with him to Tampa Bay: 23 rushes, 17 targets, seven combined scores on 40 opportunities. Rico Dowdle is the free-agent add from Carolina. Sharp called him a better stylistic complement to Warren than Gainwell was. Dowdle's 2025 Panthers card was 236 carries, +0.6 RYOE, 43.2% success, 13.5 DraftKings points per game, a 5.4 floor, a 31.1 ceiling, and three Slate Hits.

The first month has pushed the backfield decisively toward Warren, although Dowdle's injury has contributed to that separation. Warren added 93 rushing yards on 17 carries plus 33 receiving against Cleveland and is now at 55 carries for 309 yards (5.6 yards per carry) plus 13 catches for 143 yards. Against Cincinnati he handled 90% of the snaps for 127 rushing yards and 49 receiving on three catches. Dowdle is at 2.5 yards per carry and has missed two consecutive games with the toe injury. Eli Heidenreich is the seventh-round gadget pick. Among 49 qualified backs last year, Warren ranked 23rd and Dowdle 25th in rate of gaining 10 or more yards when avoiding contact. The workload hierarchy will clarify once Dowdle returns.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Jaylen Warren 8 (6 rush, 2 rec); Kenny Gainwell 8 (5 rush, 3 rec); DK Metcalf 7 (1 rush, 6 rec); Pat Freiermuth 4 rec. Passing TDs: Aaron Rodgers 24, Mason Rudolph 2. Defense TDs: Kyle Dugger (1 def TD). Special teams: Chris Boswell 27/32 FG, 42/43 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell each scored eight touchdowns, Warren on 6 rushing and 2 receiving and Gainwell on 5 rushing and 3 receiving before leaving for Tampa Bay. DK Metcalf scored seven (6 receiving, 1 rushing), Pat Freiermuth had four receiving scores, and Aaron Rodgers threw 24 touchdowns against two from Mason Rudolph. Scoring ran through two backs and one wideout.

Kyle Dugger's defensive score left with him, and there were no return touchdowns. Chris Boswell was 27-of-32 on field goals and 42-of-43 on extra points, with a 60-yard long and nine makes from 50-plus. The first-month answer is that nobody has replaced that rushing scoring yet. Pittsburgh still has zero rushing touchdowns through four games. All seven offensive touchdowns have come through the passing game, plus Watt's defensive score.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Pittsburgh scored in the second and fourth quarters and stalled in the first and third. Opening quarters sat at 3.9 points per game (25th) and 16.8 full-PPR fantasy points (20th); the third quarter was 4.1 points (23rd) with the same 16.8 fantasy points. The second quarter jumped to 7.5 points (10th) and 22.0 fantasy points (19th), and the fourth was 7.8 points and 25.4 fantasy points, both seventh.

The defense inverted that script. It allowed 4.0, 5.0, and 3.5 points through three quarters (10th, 4th, and 7th fewest), then 10.2 points and 33.5 opponent fantasy points in the fourth, last in the league in both. That fourth-quarter allowed total is the striking number. Last year Pittsburgh also led at halftime 11 times and won only seven of those games, a parallel 2025 pattern rather than proof of why the fourth quarter leaked.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #7, Secondary #7.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Payton Wilson led the club with 126 tackles; Alex Highsmith 9.5 sacks, Nick Herbig 7.5 sacks, T.J. Watt 7.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Payton Wilson: 6 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 1 INT, 2 PD; Patrick Queen: 8 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 4 PD; Jalen Ramsey: 4 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 1 INT, 8 PD; Cameron Heyward: 9 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 6 PD; Kyle Dugger: 2 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 2 INT, 5 PD; T.J. Watt: 10 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 2 INT, 8 PD; Alex Highsmith: 15 TFL, 9.5 sacks, 3 PD; Nick Herbig: 13 TFL, 7.5 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD.

Warren Sharp ranks the front seven and the secondary both seventh. The 2025 defense did not play up to the price tag. Pittsburgh spent the most in the league on that side of the ball and, in Sharp's words, was merely average in the stats that matter. Payton Wilson led with 126 tackles and Patrick Queen had 120, while Alex Highsmith had 15 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks and T.J. Watt matched Highsmith's 19 quarterback hits with seven sacks, two interceptions, and eight passes defensed, with Cameron Heyward and Keeanu Benton supplying the interior. That front seven returns mostly intact after generating pressure in 2.5 seconds or less on 25% of dropbacks, sixth, and making contact in the backfield on only 25% of opponent rushes, 19th.

The secondary Sharp ranked seventh has already become a depth test. Porter is gone after three inactive games. Ramsey played through a broken wrist in a cast at Cleveland. Echols cleared concussion protocol and played Thursday. Dean left the Cleveland game with his foot in a boot. Rookies Daylen Everette and Robert Spears-Jennings have been pushed into meaningful work. Last year's 54% completion rate on throws of 10-plus yards, a mark Sharp ranked third from the bottom, is the weakness this secondary was supposed to address. Votes ranged from third to 18th, and the seventh-place rank predates how this group actually plays.

The first four games have already put production on the board. Pittsburgh has 10 sacks and a plus-2 turnover ratio. Watt is up to 4.5 sacks plus the Week 1 pick-six, and at Cleveland he added a sack, a forced fumble, and a recovery. Highsmith remains at three. Rookie Derrick Harmon has 1.5 and produced the game-clinching strip-sack against Cincinnati. Spears-Jennings recorded his first career interception after Jack Sawyer tipped Deshaun Watson's pass.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Cover 3 was the base shell, 200 snaps, and accumulated the most total fantasy points allowed at 357. Cover 1 and Cover 2 were worse on a per-snap basis: 1.95 over 165 snaps (22nd) and 1.89 over 144 snaps (26th). Cover 3 sat at 1.78 per play, 18th. None of them ranked in the top half per play.

Cover 4 was the stingiest package, 1.50 points per play on 64 snaps, sixth. 2-Man was 1.57 on 48 snaps, 11th. Cover 0 allowed 3.51 per play on 29 snaps, 12th, a high rate on a small sample. Cover 6 was 2.21 on 26 snaps, 25th. Cover 1 and Cover 2 are where opposing skill players found the easiest per-snap production last year, and they are the looks a thinner secondary still has to play.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Chris Boswell: 27/32 FG, 42/43 PAT.

Corliss Waitman led with 62 punts (26 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Kenny Gainwell: 26 returns for 633 yards.

Punt returner Calvin Austin III: 15 returns for 101 yards.

Special teams tackler Ben Skowronek: 21 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Chris Boswell was 27-of-32 on field goals (84.4%) and 42-of-43 on extra points, with nine makes from 50-plus and a 60-yard long. Corliss Waitman punted 62 times, 26 inside the 20, none blocked, then left for San Francisco. Ben Skowronek led special-teams tackling with 21 combined stops on punts and kickoffs.

The return jobs turned over with Gainwell and Austin. Wetjen is the kick and punt returner: 14 kickoff returns for 317 yards and seven punt returns through four games. Cameron Johnston is the punter, 18 punts at 49.4 gross with nine inside the 20. He was excellent Thursday: five punts at 51.8 gross, three inside the 20, including one downed at the Cleveland 1. Skowronek remains on coverage.

Penalty Analysis

The Sharp Football Preview penalty analysis gives Pittsburgh an A for Penalties & Discipline. The offense accounted for 42% of the team's flags against a 47.7% league average and sat in the bottom three in raw offensive penalties per game. Combined offensive holding and false starts ranked 31st — only San Francisco had fewer. Pittsburgh was one of three teams with zero offensive holding flags on third down. The defense generated pre-snap infractions from opponents at an above-average rate through delay of game, illegal shift, and offensive offside.

Third down was the leverage split. The offense ranked second in automatic first downs drawn from defensive penalties on third down. The defense surrendered only 21% of its automatic first downs on third down against a 30.9% league average. The one Sharp "Bad" is the downfield flag: this offense led the league in offensive pass interference. Seven OPI flags are that finding.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 52 penalties for 418 yards (#3). Most common: Offensive Holding (12), False Start (12), Offensive Pass Interference (7). Most flags in Shotgun (16), Under Center (9). Most flagged players: DK Metcalf (8), Ben Skowronek (4), Jonnu Smith (4).

Defense: 49 penalties for 385 yards (#20), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) and 2 Illegal Formation (kickoffs/PAT) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (10), Defensive Offside (7), Unnecessary Roughness (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (6), 2 Man (5). Most flagged players: Joey Porter Jr. (6), Jalen Ramsey (5), T.J. Watt (5).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags. Sharp chapter shares and Hacking DFS flag counts are different classifications.

Offensive holding and false starts led at 12 each, offensive pass interference at 7, then delay of game (6) and unnecessary roughness (3). Sharp highlighted the offensive pass interference total as a concern—Pittsburgh led the league with seven OPI flags.

Defensive pass interference led at 10, then defensive offside (7), unnecessary roughness (5), roughing the passer (4), and illegal use of hands (3). Cover 1 had the most flags (11), then Cover 2 (6) and 2 Man (5).

Top Fantasy Player Targets

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Aaron Rodgers (14.1 FPavg), Jaylen Warren (13.6 FPavg), Kenny Gainwell (13.0 FPavg), DK Metcalf (12.5 FPavg), Pat Freiermuth (7.6 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

DK Metcalf led the three coverages Pittsburgh saw most. Cover 2 was 152 plays (25.6%) at 1.87 full-PPR points per play, and Metcalf scored 50 of the 284. Cover 3 was 149 plays at 1.68, and he scored 60 of 250. Cover 1 was 128 plays at 1.94, and he scored 45 of 248. Cover 0 was the highest per-play number, 3.29 on 18 snaps, with Darnell Washington leading at 12 points.

Pat Freiermuth led the smaller shells, scoring 14 points against Cover 6, 14 against Cover 9, and 11 against 2-Man. Washington added 31 against Cover 3. Calvin Austin III's 37 against Cover 1 and 19 against Cover 4 are 2025 samples that left with him.

Kenneth Gainwell scored 33 full-PPR points against Cover 2, second on the Pittsburgh passing game in that shell. He led Cover 4 with 23 points while Jaylen Warren added 11 against Cover 0.

Skill adds: Michael Pittman, Jr. (WR) (via trade) and Rico Dowdle (RB).

Skill losses: Jonnu Smith (TE), Kenneth Gainwell (RB) to the Buccaneers, Kaleb Johnson (RB) to the Packers, Adam Thielen (WR), Connor Heyward (TE) to the Raiders, Calvin Austin III (WR) to the Giants, Donald Parham (TE), Skylar Thompson (QB) to the Ravens, and Scott Miller (WR) to the Bears.

Skill draft picks: Germie Bernard (WR, Rd 2, Alabama), Drew Allar (QB, Rd 3, Penn State), Kaden Wetjen (WR, Rd 4, Iowa), Riley Nowakowski (FB, Rd 5, Indiana), and Eli Heidenreich (RB/WR, Rd 7, Navy).

Metcalf remains the volume wideout, Pittman arrives from Indianapolis as the second boundary piece, and Freiermuth is the remaining tight end after Smith, Heyward, and Parham left. Warren is the lead back, and Dowdle's Carolina sample is the other backfield card.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Aaron Rodgers's 16-game Pittsburgh card was 15.1 DraftKings points per game, a 12.1 floor, a 24.6 ceiling, zero Slate Hits, and 2.86 FP/$ at $5,300. The floor and the value are the 2025 sample. The tournament ceiling was limited.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: DK Metcalf's Pittsburgh card was 15 games, 12.9 DraftKings points per game, an 8.2 floor, a 24.8 ceiling, four Slate Hits, and 2.32 FP/$ at $5,500. Reliable floor with ceiling upside at his 2025 salary.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Jaylen Warren's 16-game sample was 13.9 points per game, a 9.3 floor, a 22.8 ceiling, two Slate Hits, and 2.38 FP/$ at $6,000. The rushing volume was his; the early 2026 lead is already showing up.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Michael Pittman Jr.'s Colts card was 17 games, 12.4 points per game, a 4.0 floor, a 21.0 ceiling, three Slate Hits, and 2.34 FP/$ at $5,100.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Rico Dowdle's last club was Carolina. His 2025 card there was 17 games, 236 carries, 13.5 points per game, a 5.4 floor, a 31.1 ceiling, three Slate Hits, and 2.30 FP/$ at $6,000.

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Pat Freiermuth's 15-game card was 7.8 points per game, a 4.3 floor, an 11.7 ceiling, one Slate Hit, and 2.56 FP/$ at $3,100 on short-area reliability.

Inside Scoop

Pittsburgh finished 10-7 last season, and Warren Sharp's preseason forecast of 8.5 wins and a third-place AFC North finish treated that record as incomplete. A front seven he ranked seventh is why the defensive side still looked real. The ten wins also came with seven one-score victories and a plus-12 turnover margin, the close-game and takeaway profile Sharp put in the under case. McCarthy is the first offensive head coach this franchise has hired since 1969, Rodgers just played the shortest passing season in the league, and the roster has already lost key pieces—Broderick Jones to Dallas in August, then Joey Porter Jr. to the Cowboys in October. Pittman and Dowdle are the skill pieces around that quarterback, and the 1-5 mark against playoff teams is still on the résumé.

The first month is almost a miniature of that preseason debate. Pittsburgh is 2-2. It won a three-point game against Cincinnati, then lost a three-point game at Cleveland, rallying from 21-7 down and tying it at 24 with 1:42 left before Cleveland kicked a 56-yard winner with 10 seconds remaining. Warren continues to look like a legitimate offensive engine: 309 rushing yards at 5.6 per carry plus 143 receiving. Metcalf finally produced the downfield game Pittsburgh paid for, 5-for-115 at Cleveland. Rodgers threw three touchdowns there but also two interceptions and absorbed five sacks. After the offense erased a 14-point deficit, the defense could not prevent the game-winning drive. Dean left with his foot in a boot, and rookie cornerbacks Daylen Everette and Robert Spears-Jennings were already being asked to step into meaningful roles.

That tension is what drives the Steelers story forward. Sharp's preseason snapshot installed them as favorites in seven games and underdogs in ten, a 0.6-point average dog, minus-0.9 at home and plus-1.9 on the road. Last year they were 8-9 against the spread despite ten wins, and 10-7 to the over. The 2025 DFS cards split the same way the roster does: Rodgers was Cash on a 12.1 floor, Metcalf and Warren were GPP/Cash on Pittsburgh salaries, Freiermuth was a Cash tight end, Pittman's Colts sample was GPP, and Dowdle's Carolina card was GPP as a featured back with a thin floor. Those are historical archetypes rather than weekly 2026 recommendations. Four games have already shown both sides of that preseason argument. This roster can stay in games and create splash plays, but the same close-game volatility, protection issues, and defensive finishing problems that made last year's ten wins questionable are still visible.

---

Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.