NFL 2026 PREVIEW: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

The Los Angeles Chargers enter 2026 coming off an 11-6 season that looked more competitive than explosive: they matched that record against the spread, went 7-10 to the over, and scored 21.6 points per game (20th) while allowing only 20.0 (ninth). Warren Sharp still has them at 10.5 wins and second in the AFC West, and his preseason betting snapshot already treated Los Angeles as a favorite in 11 games and a dog in six, a -2.3 average line built on -5.0 at home and 0.2 on the road. The schedule ranks 11th on his 1-to-32 scale. Arizona already won 26-14 in SoFi in Week 1, which is the first real test of whether last year's defensive floor can cover an offense that is still finding its pieces.

Jim Harbaugh is in year three with Mike McDaniel calling plays for a quarterback room Sharp ranks seventh, the highest unit grade on the roster, against a front seven ranked 21st. Justin Herbert is still the reason the 11-win tape is not an empty peak. The question is whether the supporting cast around him — after Keenan Allen left and the interior line turned over — can finish games the way a 20.0-point defense deserves.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: David Njoku (TE), Tyler Biadasz (C), Charlie Kolar (TE), Cole Strange (LG), Dalvin Tomlinson (IDL), Keaton Mitchell (RB), Alec Ingold (FB), and Kayode Awosika (RT).

Key Departures: Odafe Oweh (EDGE) to the Commanders, Zion Johnson (LG) to the Browns, Mekhi Becton (RT), Najee Harris (RB), Benjamin St-Juste (CB) to the Packers, Will Dissly (TE), Keenan Allen (WR), Da'Shawn Hand (IDL) to the Falcons, Otito Ogbonnia (IDL) to the Cowboys, Jamaree Salyer (RG) to the Dolphins, Tyler Conklin (TE) to the Lions, Bobby Hart (RT), Marcus Maye (S), Austin Deculus (RT) to the Titans, Andre James (C), Hassan Haskins (RB), Tucker Fisk (TE), Savion Washington (RT), Jordan Oladokun (CB), and Josh Fuga (IDL).

Harbaugh's third season is the one where McDaniel is supposed to give Herbert an offense that can keep up with last year's scoring-allowed tape. The live roster already changed the plan. David Njoku signed in May and is co-listed with Charlie Kolar, so the tight-end room is no longer Oronde Gadsden II plus a blocker. Tyler Biadasz signed to play center, tore his ACL in August, and is on season-ending IR, which is why second-rounder Jake Slaughter is starting now between Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, with Kayode Awosika or Trey Pipkins listed at left guard and Cole Strange at right guard. Pipkins is out for Week 2 against Las Vegas, so Awosika is the left guard this week. Keaton Mitchell and Alec Ingold are the backfield adds around Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal.

Chris O'Leary inherits the unit Sharp treated as the weak link. Odafe Oweh's exit to Washington is the edge problem. Da'Shawn Hand left for Atlanta, Otito Ogbonnia signed with Dallas, and Dalvin Tomlinson is the veteran next to Justin Eboigbe. Benjamin St-Juste signed with Green Bay, and Denzel Perryman is already on IR.

2026 Draft Class

Draft Class Summary

Warren Sharp evaluates the front seven as the Chargers' weakest group, ranking the unit 21st, which is why the 22nd overall pick went to Miami linebacker Akheem Mesidor. Sharp treats the pick as a succession plan: Khalil Mack, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Bud Dupree are all in contract years. He writes that Mesidor will rotate now and step into a starting role in 2027, likely replacing Mack, while also filling snaps that left with Oweh. Florida center Jake Slaughter, taken 63rd, was supposed to be depth behind a veteran signing. After Biadasz's ACL, he is the starter, which is a different job than the one April described.

Day 3 was speed and trench depth around that. Brenen Thompson (105) is the vertical wideout, Travis Burke (117) and Genesis Smith (131) add tackle and safety competition, and Nick Barrett (145) adds defensive-line depth after the departures of Hand and Ogbonnia, while sixth-round guards Logan Taylor and Alex Harkey replenish the offensive interior.

Sharp Forecasts Los Angeles Chargers with 10.5 Wins

Over Case: The 10.5-win number holds if Herbert stays upright after a 54-sack year and the defense keeps looking like a 20.0-point unit. Slaughter, Strange, and Alt have to make the pocket playable. Njoku and Ladd McConkey have to replace enough of Allen's volume that the offense is not asking Herbert to win on leftovers. If those two things happen, last year's 11 wins look like a baseline.

Under Case: The under is what actually left on defense and what happened to the published line. Oweh is the edge loss; Hand and Ogbonnia are interior losses, so Tomlinson is a run-fit veteran next to Eboigbe. Sharp's offensive line grade of eighth predates Biadasz's IR. The preseason board also had six road underdog spots. If the new center-guard pairing takes weeks to settle, or if Tuipulotu cannot carry the rush without Oweh, Los Angeles falls just short of 10.5.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -24 days.

The calendar is working against them. Sharp ranks Los Angeles last in net rest edge at minus-24 days, with 10 weeks carrying a non-zero rest differential, and they also sit 32nd in short-week road games and 30th in both games off a road prime-time slot and negated byes. Prep (13th) and the standalone rest rank (first) are the only timing grades that look helpful.

Those days show up immediately. Neutral rest at home against Arizona and Las Vegas gives way to a minus-three trip to Buffalo in Week 3 and a minus-seven trip to Kansas City in Week 6. The Week 7 bye is a plus-seven-day rest edge against the Rams, then a minus-seven-day rest disadvantage at home against Houston in Week 9.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Justin Herbert (13 INT, 2 FL), Trey Lance (1 INT, 1 FL), Derius Davis (1 FL, special teams return), Quentin Johnston (1 FL), Oronde Gadsden II (1 FL), Ke'Shawn Williams (1 FL, special teams return). Takeaways: Tony Jefferson (4 INT), Donte Jackson (4 INT), Derwin James (3 INT), Daiyan Henley (2 INT), R.J. Mickens (2 INT), Teair Tart (1 FR)

The Chargers finished plus-two because the secondary stole the football even when Herbert gave it back. He threw 13 interceptions and lost two fumbles. Los Angeles ranked 24th with 14 interceptions thrown and seven fumbles lost. Trey Lance threw one interception and lost one fumble, and Johnston, Gadsden, Derius Davis, and Ke'Shawn Williams each lost a fumble. The takeaway side was 19 interceptions (third) against only four recoveries (28th), with Tony Jefferson and Donte Jackson at four picks each and Derwin James at three.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Justin Herbert 301 yards; Trey Lance 44 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 48/722 ≈ 6.6% of shotgun plays; 12/310 ≈ 3.9% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Tuli Tuipulotu (13), Odafe Oweh (7.5), Justin Eboigbe (6), Khalil Mack (5.5)

Los Angeles gave up 60 sacks in 2025, 29th in the league, and Herbert lost 301 yards on them. Forty-eight of those sacks came across 722 shotgun plays (6.6% of snaps from that look) against 12 sacks on 310 under-center plays. That is the protection environment McDaniel inherited. Slaughter is now responsible for helping clean it up after Biadasz's ACL injury pushed the rookie into the starting-center job.

The rush still generated 45 sacks (10th), 34 of them with four rushers. Tuipulotu led with 13, then Oweh 7.5, Eboigbe six, and Khalil Mack 5.5. Cover 3 and Cover 2 were where the sacks landed most often (14 and 13).

Return Touchdowns

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 1 (#19) — Chimere Dike (punt return).

Kickoff returner Derius Davis: 18 returns for 464 yards.

Punt returner Derius Davis: 11 returns for 77 yards.

Punt returns 21 for 136 yards; kickoff returns 66 for 1633 yards.

Derius Davis handled both return jobs: 18 kickoffs for 464 yards and 11 punts for 77, on a unit that returned 66 kickoffs for 1,633 yards and 21 punts for 136. Los Angeles scored zero return touchdowns and allowed one, Chimere Dike on a punt.

Penalties

Offense: 59 penalties for 413 yards (#14). Most common: False Start (27), Offensive Holding (14), Illegal Formation (5). Most flags in Shotgun (15), Under Center (10), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Trey Pipkins (7), Jamaree Salyer (6), Austin Deculus (5).

Defense: 45 penalties for 374 yards (#12), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Offside (6), Unnecessary Roughness (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (6), Cover 2 (5), Cover 0 (3). Most flagged players: Teair Tart (5), Cam Hart (4), Tarheeb Still (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

The flags were a middle-of-the-pack problem: 104 for 787 yards, 13th-fewest in the league. The offense drew 59 for 413 yards (14th), mostly false starts and holding, and Trey Pipkins led the club with seven flags ahead of Jamaree Salyer (6) and Austin Deculus (5). Those flags clustered in shotgun (15) and under center (10), with one in pistol.

The defense was 45 penalties for 374 yards (12th), including two offensive-holding flags on punt returns. Pass interference (8) and offside (6) led the types. Cover 1, Cover 2, and Cover 0 had the most flags (6, 5, and 3). Teair Tart had five, Cam Hart four, Tarheeb Still four.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 809 plays, 41.4% success, -0.05 EPA/play (#25). Most efficient on early downs: Oronde Gadsden II (53 plays, 0.51 EPA/play), Ladd McConkey (77 plays, 0.27 EPA/play), Quentin Johnston (64 plays, 0.26 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 166 plays, 40.4% success, -0.07 EPA/play (#22). Most efficient in the red zone: Quentin Johnston (15 plays, 0.50 EPA/play), Justin Herbert (12 plays, 0.35 EPA/play), Keenan Allen (16 plays, 0.17 EPA/play).

First and second down were a grind: 809 plays, 41.4% success, -0.05 EPA per play (25th). When those snaps did work, the highest EPA/play belonged to Gadsden (0.51 on 53 plays), McConkey (0.27 on 77), and Johnston (0.26 on 64). Inside the 20 the same picture holds — 166 plays, 40.4% success, -0.07 EPA per play (22nd) — with Johnston at 0.50 on 15 plays and Herbert at 0.35 on 12. Allen's 16 red-zone plays at 0.17 EPA are gone, so 2026 early-down and red-zone EPA have to come from the people still here.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was 3.6 (#7); they passed 58.3% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Justin Herbert (45.2% success on 566 pass plays), Trey Lance (27.1% success on 59 pass plays).

On rushes: Kimani Vidal (36.1% success on 155 rush plays), Omarion Hampton (41.9% success on 124 rush plays), Justin Herbert (66.2% success on 74 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Los Angeles wanted to throw. Neutral-down pass rate over expected was 3.6 (seventh) at a 58.3% pass share, and the season totals were 625 pass plays (seventh) against 455 rushes (15th). The problem was payoff: 5.77 yards per pass play (25th) and 43.5% success (23rd), against 4.58 yards per rush (15th) and 42.6% success (17th). Herbert carried 566 pass plays at 45.2% success and was the most reliable runner at 66.2% on 74 rush plays. Hampton posted a 41.9% success rate on 124 rush plays, ahead of Vidal's 36.1% on 155.

Explosive Plays

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive plays are rushes and completions of 20 or more yards. Coverage totals reflect raw play counts rather than per-snap efficiency because usage rates vary across schemes.

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Los Angeles created 59 explosives of 20-plus yards for 1,855 yards (13th), mostly through the air. Johnston (13 for 437) and Gadsden (11 for 331) were the chunk catchers, with McConkey and Allen behind them, and Herbert's five scrambles for 156 yards led the rush explosives. Cover 1 and Cover 3 were the shells they beat most often (16 for 555 and 14 for 451).

The defense allowed 44 explosives for 1,383 yards, ranked second in fewest allowed, 37 of them through the air. Cover 3 was the shell with the most explosives allowed, 18 for 500 yards, then Cover 1 (7/192) and Cover 2 (6/197).

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Eleven personnel was the offense McDaniel inherits: 781 plays at 1.38 fantasy points per play, with 12 and 13 personnel as the heavier changeups (140 and 22 plays). Shotgun was 66.9% of snaps and 1.49 fantasy points per play; under center was 28.7% and 0.95. If the new tight-end room pulls them toward 12 personnel, last year's 11-personnel diet is the baseline they are leaving.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #23; play-action rank #13 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Pre-snap motion showed up on 565 plays, a 52.3% rate that ranked 23rd, and those snaps produced 1.26 fantasy points per play against 1.36 without it. Play action appeared on 157 plays, a 14.5% rate (13th), with 50.3% success and 1.91 fantasy points per play against 1.20 without it.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Herbert's 2025 season ended with a broken left hand, a career-high 54 sacks, and hits on 129 dropbacks, and the most-used offensive line combination stayed on the field for 16.5% of snaps. Without Alt he completed 65.9% with a 10.1% sack rate (31st) across 431 dropbacks. The DraftKings sample still came in at 20.0 points per game, a 14.7 floor, a 32.9 ceiling, and four Slate Hits in 16 weeks. Slaughter is the center now, Strange is at right guard, and Alt is at right tackle — the line McDaniel needs to keep Herbert upright.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Warren Sharp ranks the receiving corps 19th because Allen's 26.1% target share, 122 targets, and 16 red-zone looks walked out with him, and Dissly (16) and Conklin (10) went too. McConkey kept the largest leftover volume — 106 targets, an 18.9% share, 9.9 air yards per target, and 77 early-down looks — at +2.4 Receiving EPA across 16 games. Johnston's 13-game sample sat on 84 targets and a 17.2% share, and that was the more productive one still in the building: +20.5 Receiving EPA, 12.3 air yards per target, 13.6 DraftKings points per game, and 2.10 fantasy points per target, with 15 red-zone looks matching McConkey and Gadsden.

Gadsden's 2025 card is 69 targets, a 9.0-yard average depth of target, and a 17.8% share in 15 games. Njoku signed in May, is co-listed with Kolar, and caught five passes for 58 yards in the Arizona opener, so the tight-end room is larger than Gadsden plus the departed Dissly and Conklin looks. Tre Harris is the next wideout at 43 targets.

The 2026 room is McConkey and Johnston, with Njoku adding tight-end volume next to Gadsden and Kolar. McConkey is questionable with a rib injury for Week 2. Johnston already worked the downfield and red-zone looks while Allen was still taking the volume.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Vidal handled the 2025 volume. He had 155 attempts in 12 games, -13.2 Rush EPA, +0.4 yards over expected per attempt, and a 37.4% success rate, plus the larger red-zone sample: 26 rushes, six targets, and three combined touchdowns on 32 opportunities. Hampton's nine-game card was smaller and cleaner — 124 attempts, -2.1 Rush EPA, +0.6 RYOE, 41.9% success — with the same 26 red-zone rushes, two targets, and four combined scores on 28 opportunities. The DraftKings split matched that: Hampton 15.4 points per game with an 8.1 floor and 24.9 ceiling, Vidal 10.6 with a 3.0 floor and a 23.7 ceiling.

Najee Harris and Hassan Haskins are gone, so the 2026 room is the two holdovers plus Mitchell, the change-of-pace add from Baltimore, and Ingold at fullback. Sharp ranked the running backs 13th before Biadasz went on IR. McDaniel's history is wide zone, and that is the scheme Hampton, Vidal, and Mitchell now run behind Slaughter and the new guard pairing.

Hampton remains the lead back, with Mitchell and Vidal forming the next layer of the rotation. Week 1 already looked like that: Hampton 12 carries for 43 yards and a touchdown, Mitchell four carries. Vidal's 12-game, 155-attempt sample is the holdover changeup in that rotation.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Quentin Johnston 8 rec; Ladd McConkey 6 rec; Omarion Hampton 5 (4 rush, 1 rec); Keenan Allen 4 rec; Kimani Vidal 4 (3 rush, 1 rec). Passing TDs: Justin Herbert 26. Defense TDs: none in the nflverse season table. Special teams: Cameron Dicker 38/41 FG, 34/35 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

Herbert threw 26 touchdowns, with Johnston (8), McConkey (6), and Allen (4) leading the receiving scores. Hampton scored five times and Vidal four. Cameron Dicker went 38-of-41 on field goals and 34-of-35 on extra points, and the return units and the defense scored zero touchdowns. The scoring totals came alongside a red-zone offense that finished 22nd in EPA/play over 166 plays.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

They scored their most points before half and still ranked only 25th in the second quarter (6.1), even as fantasy output hit 24.8 (11th). The first, third, and fourth sat at 4.8, 5.2, and 5.4. Opponents did their damage before half (5.5, ninth-fewest allowed) and their least after it — 4.2 in the third (14.4 fantasy, third-fewest) and 5.1 in the fourth (fifth-fewest real points).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #21, Secondary #14.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players (in season) may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Daiyan Henley led the club with 103 tackles; Tuli Tuipulotu 13.0 sacks, Odafe Oweh 7.5 sacks, Justin Eboigbe 6.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Daiyan Henley: 5 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT, 5 PD; Derwin James: 6 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 3 INT, 7 PD; Troy Dye: 5 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 4 PD; Tony Jefferson: 1 TFL, 4 INT, 7 PD; Tarheeb Still: 5 TFL, 7 PD; Elijah Molden: 1 INT, 1 PD; Tuli Tuipulotu: 20 TFL, 13.0 sacks, 3 PD; Odafe Oweh: 9 TFL, 7.5 sacks; Justin Eboigbe: 7 TFL, 6.0 sacks.

The pass rush has a hole in it. Oweh left for Washington after 7.5 sacks and 18 quarterback hits, Hand signed with Atlanta, and Ogbonnia went to Dallas. Tomlinson is the veteran next to Eboigbe (six sacks, seven TFL), and Tuipulotu's 13 sacks, 20 TFL, and 23 quarterback hits are the production that has to survive without Oweh. Henley still led the club with 103 tackles. Perryman's 47 are last year's sample; he is already on IR.

The secondary that Sharp ranked 14th still has Derwin James (94 tackles, three interceptions, seven passes defensed), Tony Jefferson's four picks, and Cam Hart's 11 passes defensed. St-Juste signed with Green Bay. Molden is out for Week 2 against Las Vegas.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Cover 3 was the base look and a stingy one at 1.47 fantasy points per play on 184 snaps (sixth). Cover 2 and Cover 1 sat near that (1.62 on 151 snaps, 1.59 on 77). Cover 4 leaked more among the regular shells (1.83 on 68), 2 Man was the stingiest small sample (0.85 on 30), and Cover 0 was the leak (2.73 on 24).

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Cameron Dicker: 38/41 FG, 34/35 PAT.

J.K. Scott led with 60 punts (23 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Derius Davis: 18 returns for 464 yards.

Punt returner Derius Davis: 11 returns for 77 yards.

Special teams tackler Del'Shawn Phillips: 24 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

The specialists are back. Dicker was 38-of-41 with five makes from 50-plus and a long of 59, Scott dropped 23 of 60 punts inside the 20, and Davis handled both return jobs without a touchdown. Phillips had 24 special-teams tackles.

Penalty Analysis

Warren Sharp graded them a C for their Penalties & Discipline grade, a middling report card on a club that still led the league in drawing offensive holding and facemask flags. The net was still positive: more automatic first downs via penalty than they gave, and a yardage surplus across the first three quarters.

The offense is why the letter stuck. After ranking as the league's least-penalized unit in 2024, they slipped to 13th in flags per game and, under Sharp's tracking, accounted for 53% of the team's penalties. False starts jumped to third-most in the league after they had ranked 32nd in 2023 and 29th in 2024, and under Sharp's tracking holding and false starts were 43% of all flags after 34% across Harbaugh's first two seasons. Twenty-nine percent of the infractions landed on third down against a 23.8% league average, and the defense gave away 57.5% of opponent automatic first downs via penalty on third and fourth down against a 38.8% league rate.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 59 penalties for 413 yards (#14). Most common: False Start (27), Offensive Holding (14), Illegal Formation (5). Most flags in Shotgun (15), Under Center (10), Pistol (1). Most flagged players: Trey Pipkins (7), Jamaree Salyer (6), Austin Deculus (5).

Defense: 45 penalties for 374 yards (#12), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Offside (6), Unnecessary Roughness (5). Most flags on Cover 1 (6), Cover 2 (5), Cover 0 (3). Most flagged players: Teair Tart (5), Cam Hart (4), Tarheeb Still (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Offensive flags clustered around pre-snap timing: 27 false starts, 14 holds, five illegal formations, three delays, and two grounding calls. False starts and holding accounted for most of the offensive flag volume.

Defensively, coverage contact and front-seven discipline produced most of the flags — eight pass-interference calls, four illegal-contact penalties, six offsides, five unnecessary-roughness hits, and three too-many-men infractions. Downfield positioning and pre-snap alignment are still the cheapest yards to stop giving away.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Ladd McConkey WR17, Omarion Hampton RB12, Justin Herbert QB6.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Justin Herbert (17.9 FPavg), Omarion Hampton (15.1 FPavg), Quentin Johnston (13.2 FPavg), Ladd McConkey (11.3 FPavg), Keenan Allen (10.7 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Johnston was the man-coverage scorer. Cover 1 was the look they saw most often — 193 plays, 28.4% of the charted sample, 1.55 points per play — and he led Cover 1 with 55 full-PPR points ahead of McConkey's 46. He had 14 points against Cover 0 at 3.15 per play on 32 snaps. He led 2 Man with 17.

Allen was the zone volume that left. He led Cover 3 with 51 points, with Johnston at 49 behind him on 158 plays at 1.83 per play. He tied Gadsden at 36 against Cover 2, and he still topped Cover 6 and Cover 9. McConkey's cleanest zone look was Cover 4: 30 points on 59 plays. The 2026 tree is Johnston and McConkey against those shells. Allen's zone production is now vacated, while Njoku adds a new tight-end option alongside Kolar and Gadsden.

Skill adds: David Njoku (TE), Charlie Kolar (TE), Keaton Mitchell (RB), and Alec Ingold (FB).

Skill losses: Najee Harris (RB), Will Dissly (TE), Keenan Allen (WR), Tyler Conklin (TE) to the Lions, Hassan Haskins (RB), and Tucker Fisk (TE).

Skill draft picks: Brenen Thompson (WR, Rd 4, Mississippi State).

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Justin Herbert's 16-game sample is a 14.7 floor, 32.9 ceiling, four Slate Hits, and 20.0 points per game at a $6,300 average salary.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Quentin Johnston, in 13 games, posted a 9.2 floor, 23.8 ceiling, three Slate Hits, and 2.59 FP/$.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Ladd McConkey's 16-game card is a 4.3 floor, 23.7 ceiling, three Slate Hits, and 1.87 FP/$.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Omarion Hampton's nine-game sample is an 8.1 floor, 24.9 ceiling, two Slate Hits, and 2.58 FP/$.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Kimani Vidal, in 12 games, averaged 10.6 DraftKings points with a 3.0 floor, 23.7 ceiling, four Slate Hits, and 1.94 FP/$.

Trey Lance's four Chargers weeks sit behind Herbert. David Njoku's last club was Cleveland: 11 Browns games, 7.8 DraftKings points per game, a 3.1 floor, a 13.7 ceiling, and zero Slate Hits at $3,500. Charlie Kolar's last club was Baltimore (11 games, 3.3 points, 0.0 floor, 8.0 ceiling). Keaton Mitchell's last club was Baltimore (12 games, 5.1 points, 2.8 floor, 11.1 ceiling).

Chargers cards and prior-club samples are historical 2025 archetypes, not weekly 2026 plays.

Inside Scoop

Los Angeles finished 11-6 last season, but Warren Sharp still has the Chargers at 10.5 wins and second in the AFC West. The defense allowed 20.0 points per game, and the quarterback room is still ranked seventh around Herbert. That 11-win tape is incomplete in a different way than a rebuild. Allen's volume walked out, the interior line turned over when Biadasz tore his ACL, and Oweh left the edge. Njoku, Slaughter, and McDaniel's first year calling plays are the 2026 pieces that have to make those 11 wins look like a foundation instead of a peak.

The opener was a first glimpse of how unfinished that still is. Arizona won 26-14 in SoFi, and Herbert's 17-of-27, 209 yards, one touchdown, and one interception never got the offense past 14 points. Njoku's five catches for 58 yards were an encouraging first look at the May signing. One loss does not settle whether Slaughter can keep Herbert upright, or whether those five catches were the first sign of a larger role in the rebuilt tight-end room.

That makes the Chargers one of the more interesting 11-win clubs in this series. Sharp's preseason snapshot installed them as favorites in 11 of 17 games with a -2.3 average line, -5.0 at home and 0.2 on the road, a real vote of confidence for a team that already had to replace a leading receiver. They covered 11-6, matching the win-loss record, while a 7-10 record to the over reflected how often games stayed below market totals. From a DFS perspective, the 2025 profiles tell a similarly layered story: Herbert, Johnston, and Hampton showed combinations of floor and ceiling that fit GPP/Cash archetypes, while McConkey and Vidal carried more tournament-shaped volatility. Those are historical profiles rather than weekly 2026 recommendations, but they reinforce the larger point. If Slaughter holds the middle, Njoku remains involved in the passing game, and Tuipulotu does not have to replace Oweh by himself, last year's 11-6 can still look like a season they build on rather than a ceiling they already hit.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.