NFL 2026 PREVIEW: SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

The San Francisco 49ers enter the 2026 campaign looking to build on a strong 12-5 finish from the previous season. Warren Sharp’s forecast projects the team for 10.5 wins, placing them third in their division despite a favorable Strength of Schedule ranked eighth on a scale where one represents the easiest slate. This outlook suggests continued competitiveness, supported by unit rankings that highlight a top-tier head coach as the franchise’s strongest asset. However, significant questions remain in the secondary, which ranks as the squad’s weakest positional group at number twenty-six. Balancing these structural strengths and vulnerabilities will be key for a roster that posted 25.7 points per game last year. The 49ers must navigate this easier schedule while addressing defensive backfield concerns to meet elevated expectations.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Osa Odighizuwa (IDL) via trade, Mike Evans (WR), Vederian Lowe (OL), Christian Kirk (WR), Brett Toth (OL), Robert Jones (OL), Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR) (1-year; re-signed August 1 after Pearsall IR), Dre Greenlaw (LB) (re-signed March; WILL depth-chart lead), Nate Hobbs (CB) (nickel group; secondary add), Corliss Waitman (P) (August 17 depth chart punter), Khalil Herbert (RB) (re-signed August 20; RB depth), and Deion Jones (LB) (acquired from Saints for Zamir White, August 25).

Key Departures: Bryce Huff (EDGE) (retired), Kendrick Bourne (WR) to the Cardinals, Jordan Elliott (IDL) to the Titans, Spencer Burford (RG) to the Raiders, Brian Robinson Jr. (RB) to the Falcons, Skyy Moore (WR) to the Packers, Kevin Givens (IDL), Kalia Davis (IDL) to the Browns, Jason Pinnock (S) to the Giants, Matt Hennessy (C) to the Cowboys, Eric Kendricks (LB), Thomas Morstead (P), Ben Bartch (LT) to the Lions, Curtis Robinson (LB) to the Cowboys, Robert Beal Jr. (EDGE) to the Dolphins, Clelin Ferrell (EDGE), Trent Taylor (WR) (retired), Chase Lucas (CB) to the Buccaneers, Tarron Jackson (EDGE), Tre Tomlinson (CB), Dee Winters (LB) to the Cowboys, Jauan Jennings (WR) to the Vikings, and Zamir White (RB) to the Saints.

Unavailable / status: Ricky Pearsall (season-ending IR), Brandon Aiyuk (Reserve/Left Squad; does not count toward the active roster), Patrick Taylor Jr. (IR), Isaac Guerendo (Active/PUP), Mykel Williams (DL — Active/PUP).

The San Francisco 49ers enter the 2026 campaign with significant continuity in leadership, as Kyle Shanahan begins his tenth season as head coach while offensive coordinator Klay Kubiak returns for his second year. This stability is paired with a major schematic shift on the other side of the ball, where Raheem Morris takes over as defensive coordinator in his first season with the unit. Sharp’s analysis highlights this coaching structure as a strength, ranking Shanahan as the third-best head coach in the league, which provides a high floor for game planning and in-game adjustments despite the transition in defensive play-calling.

Personnel churn has reshaped both sides of the roster through targeted acquisitions and notable departures. The offense adds veteran firepower at wide receiver with Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and the August re-signing of Deebo Samuel Sr., while the line gains depth via Vederian Lowe, Brett Toth, and Robert Jones. These moves help offset Burford (Raiders), Brian Robinson Jr. (Falcons), Bourne (Cardinals), Jennings (Vikings), Pearsall’s season-ending IR, and Aiyuk’s Reserve/Left Squad status. On defense, Osa Odighizuwa arrives via trade and Dre Greenlaw returns at WILL after Dee Winters left for Dallas; Nate Hobbs joins a secondary Sharp ranks 26th, and Deion Jones arrives from New Orleans in the August 25 Zamir White trade. Edge Bryce Huff retired, and Jordan Elliott, Kevin Givens, and Kalia Davis are gone. Corliss Waitman replaces punter Thomas Morstead. Integrating Morris’s scheme with these changes is central to a 10.5-win projection.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

San Francisco addressed its receiving corps and pass rush by trading out of the first round to select Ole Miss wideout De’Zhaun Stribling in the second round. With Brandon Aiyuk on Reserve/Left Squad, Stribling is the physical-style WR replacement Shanahan typically wants. Sharp notes that Stribling generated 24% more yards after catch than expected on route-adjusted data, that Texas Tech edge Romello Height posted a 22% pressure rate on traditional dropbacks in college, and that Oklahoma interior Gracen Halton led FBS interior pass rushers at a 14.4% pressure rate — figures from Sharp’s published draft analysis. Height joins a front that still lists Nick Bosa and Mykel Williams (Active/PUP as of August 24) among its edge/IDL pieces.

The front office continued its draft day activity by selecting Indiana running back Kaelon Black in the third round; Sharp viewed the selection as a reach given the team’s recent struggles with mid-round running back selections like Trey Sermon and Tyrion Davis-Price. Washington tackle Carver Willis was taken in the fourth round to bolster the offensive line, followed by Washington cornerback Ephesians Prysock in the fourth round, Louisiana linebacker Jaden Dugger in the fifth, and Kansas tackle Enrique Cruz Jr. also in the fifth round. While the addition of Black raises questions about historical drafting efficiency at the position, the early picks of Stribling and Height directly target roster holes created by departures and injuries, aiming to sustain the team's competitive window.

Sharp Forecasts San Francisco 49ers with 10.5 Wins

Sharp forecasts the San Francisco 49ers to finish with 10.5 wins, a projection that leans on the team’s historical ability to protect leads and sustain drives despite a favorable schedule ranked as the 8th-easiest in the league. The over case highlights San Francisco’s perfect 1.000 win percentage when leading at halftime during the 2025 season, a mark that far exceeded the NFL average of .762 and resulted in 11 victories, the second-most in the league. This efficiency was bolstered by a league-leading 49.8% third-down conversion rate, which significantly outpaced the 39.5% league average and demonstrated Kyle Shanahan’s play-calling effectiveness, even though the unit had converted at a 45.0% clip in the three prior years. Special teams also contributed to the win total through high efficiency, as the club ranked seventh in field goal percentage at 91.7% and sixth in field goal attempt EPA, while benefiting from opponents converting just 66.7% of their tries, which placed San Francisco second in field goal luck with an 8.58 net over expectation.

The under case centers on turnover issues and whether an injury-plagued roster can stay healthier, as San Francisco finished 27th in offensive player health and 28th in both defensive and total player health in 2025. Key contributors missed significant time, including Brock Purdy for eight games, Nick Bosa who suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3, Fred Warner who appeared in only six contests, and pass catchers Ricky Pearsall and George Kittle who missed eight and six games respectively. Turnover management also poses a risk. Hacking DFS calculates a -8 turnover margin from 22 giveaways and 14 takeaways. The offense threw 16 interceptions — 10 by Purdy and six by Mac Jones. With Sharp ranking the secondary 26th and the head coach third, the forecast balances elite coaching against a weak back end. San Francisco has upside if health normalizes from 2025, but age and injury history among cornerstone players still create downside risk.

Schedule Timing & Rest

The San Francisco 49ers enter the 2026 campaign with a distinct structural advantage in preparation time, ranking first in the NFL for both net rest edge and prep metrics. While their raw rest rank sits at 19th, the team benefits from a league-best net rest edge rating, suggesting that the spacing of their games provides optimal recovery windows relative to their opponents. This scheduling efficiency is further supported by a middle-of-the-pack position in short-week road games ranked 16th and off-road prime-time appearances ranked 19th, indicating a balanced distribution of travel and late-night obligations. The bye week is also rated 19th in terms of negation, meaning it arrives at a standard point in the calendar without disproportionately disrupting momentum or creating an uneven competitive gap.

From a betting perspective, this top-tier prep ranking combined with a schedule strength of opposition ranked 8th on Sharp’s scale creates a favorable environment for consistent performance. The 49ers are projected as favorites in 11 of their 17 games with an average line of -2.8, and their home splits show an even stronger average line of -4.8. Although the net days calculation shows a neutral zero sum across the season, the weekly breakdown reveals seven specific weeks where the team holds a labeled rest edge, including significant advantages in Weeks 2, 9, and 16. These pockets of extra preparation time align with key divisional and conference matchups, potentially offering value when backing a squad that leverages its coaching staff’s third-ranked unit strength against a schedule that is technically the 8th-easiest in the league.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Brock Purdy (10 INT, 2 FL), Mac Jones (6 INT, 2 FL), Luke Farrell (1 FL). Takeaways: Alfred Collins (2 FR), Deommodore Lenoir (2 INT), Ji'Ayir Brown (2 INT)

The San Francisco 49ers enter the 2026 campaign with a turnover profile that significantly drags down their otherwise strong roster construction, having posted a net differential of minus-8 in the prior season. The offense was particularly prone to throwing interceptions, ranking 27th in the league with 16 picks, which contributed to a total of 22 giveaways that placed them 23rd overall. Brock Purdy accounted for 12 giveaways with 10 interceptions and two fumbles lost, while Mac Jones added six interceptions and two fumbles lost, and the unit lost six fumbles overall, a figure that ranked 10th best in the NFL despite the high interception volume. Ball security issues were not isolated to the quarterback position alone.

Defensively, the team struggled to generate game-changing plays, securing only 14 takeaways to rank 25th in the league. The secondary managed just six interceptions, placing them 29th in that category, with Deommodore Lenoir and Ji'Ayir Brown each recording two picks. The defense found more success on the ground, recovering eight fumbles to rank ninth in the NFL, led by Alfred Collins with two recoveries. This inability to create positive turnover momentum, combined with an offense that gave the ball away frequently via the air, suggests that maintaining possession will be a critical focus for a team projected to win 10.5 games but facing the 8th-easiest schedule.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Mac Jones 108 yards; Brock Purdy 53 yards.

Sack leaders (defense): Bryce Huff (4), Clelin Ferrell (4), Sam Okuayinonu (3), Nick Bosa (2)

The San Francisco 49ers offensive line, ranked seventh by Sharp, provided sturdy protection that limited total sacks taken to 27, a figure good for fifth in the league. Brock Purdy absorbed 53 yards of lost yardage from these pressures, while Mac Jones surrendered 108 yards when he was behind center. They allowed 18 sacks in shotgun (3rd in the league) and nine under center (27th). Those are league-relative ranks, not raw rates — San Francisco also ran more shotgun (555) than under-center (486) snaps, so the worse under-center rank does not by itself prove greater per-play vulnerability.

On the other side of the ball, the defense struggled to generate consistent pressure, finishing last in the league with only 20 total sacks made. Bryce Huff and Clelin Ferrell led the group with four sacks apiece, followed by Sam Okuayinonu with three and Nick Bosa with two. The pass rush produced 16 sacks when sending four defenders, ranking 30th in four-man sack production. Coverage schemes yielded minimal returns as well, with Cover 3 producing eight sacks and Cover 1 and Cover 2 each contributing four.

Return Touchdowns

Opponent punt & kickoff TDs: 1 (#19) — Parker Washington (punt return).

Punt returns 25 for 291 yards; kickoff returns 51 for 1385 yards.

The San Francisco 49ers did not record any touchdowns on punt or kickoff returns during the season, a total that placed them at number 13 in the league for this specific metric. Despite the lack of scores in the return game, the unit remained active with 25 punt returns that accumulated 291 yards. The kickoff return corps was even busier, handling 51 returns for a combined 1385 yards, though none of these plays resulted in a trip to the end zone.

On the defensive side of special teams, the 49ers allowed just one touchdown on returns, which ranked 19th best in the NFL. The lone blemish came via a punt return by Parker Washington, who scored against San Francisco. This solitary mistake meant the team successfully prevented opponents from finding the end zone on kickoffs and most punts, maintaining a relatively secure field position battle outside of that single incident.

Penalties

Offense: 39 penalties for 280 yards (#1) — 47% of the team's 83 penalties. Most common: False Start (14), Offensive Holding (11), Delay of Game (4). Most flags in Shotgun (10), Under Center (8). Most flagged players: Colton McKivitz (5), Trent Williams (4), Dominick Puni (4).

Defense: 44 penalties for 371 yards (#9) — 53% of team penalties. Most common: Unnecessary Roughness (9), Defensive Holding (8), Defensive Pass Interference (7). Most flags in Cover 1 (13), Cover 3 (6), Cover 4 (3). Most flagged players: Deommodore Lenoir (10), Upton Stout (7), Tatum Bethune (4).

The San Francisco 49ers offense was remarkably disciplined, committing just 39 penalties for 280 yards (#1). These accounted for 47% of the team’s 83 flags. False starts led with 14, followed by 11 offensive holding calls and four delay of game penalties. Most flags came in shotgun (10) versus under center (8). Colton McKivitz led with five; Trent Williams and Dominick Puni had four each.

The defense was charged with 44 penalties for 371 yards (#9), 53% of team penalties. Unnecessary roughness led the defensive-side group with nine calls, then eight defensive holding and seven DPI. Cover 1 drew 13 flags; Cover 3 six; Cover 4 three. Deommodore Lenoir had 10 flags, Upton Stout seven, and Tatum Bethune four.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Offense: 55 explosives (#19) for 1493 yards (#25) — 51 pass, 4 rush.

Defense allowed: 55 explosives (#12) for 1600 yards (#11) — 45 pass, 10 rush.

Top explosive producers: Ricky Pearsall (REC: 10 for 291 yds), Jauan Jennings (REC: 9 for 242 yds), George Kittle (REC: 9 for 223 yds).

Opponents who burned coverage: Luther Burden III (4), Michael Wilson (3), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3).

Coverages beaten most often: Cover 3 (19), Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (10).

Coverages that sprung leaks: Cover 3 (15), Cover 1 (11), Cover 6 (6).

The San Francisco 49ers offense generated 55 explosive plays of 20 or more yards during the 2025 season, ranking 19th. Those gains totaled 1,493 yards (#25). Passing produced 51 explosives for 1,382 yards; rushing only four for 111 yards. Ricky Pearsall led with 10 receiving explosives (291 yards). Jauan Jennings and George Kittle each had nine receiving explosives (242 and 223 yards). Christian McCaffrey added six receiving explosives (163 yards) and three rushing explosives (85 yards), consistent with the team’s four total rush explosives.

Defensively, the 49ers allowed 55 explosive plays (#12 fewest allowed) and 1,600 yards on those plays (#11 on the fewest-allowed yards scale). Opponents had 45 pass explosives and 10 rush explosives. San Francisco’s offense beat Cover 3 most often (19), then Cover 1 (11) and Cover 2 (10). On defense, Cover 3 leaked most (15 allowed), ahead of Cover 1 (11) and Cover 6 (6). Luther Burden III (4), Michael Wilson (3), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3) led opponents who burned coverage.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 829 plays, 46.9% success, 0.03 EPA/play (#14). Most efficient on early downs: Kendrick Bourne (39 plays, 0.67 EPA/play), George Kittle (50 plays, 0.59 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 201 plays, 46.3% success, 0.19 EPA/play (#1). Most efficient in the red zone: George Kittle (14 plays, 1.34 EPA/play).

The San Francisco 49ers posted 0.03 EPA per play across 829 early-down plays (46.9% success, #14). Among returning players, George Kittle was a primary driver at 0.59 EPA per play over 50 early-down plays. Departed Kendrick Bourne led the club at 0.67 EPA per play on 39 early-down opportunities.

Inside the twenty, San Francisco ranked first at 0.19 EPA per play over 201 red-zone plays (46.3% success). George Kittle averaged 1.34 EPA per play across 14 qualifying red-zone plays. That finishing punch pairs with an 8th-easiest 2026 schedule.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

Pass plays: 603 (#13). Pass rate: 56.6% (#17). Yards per pass play: 6.90 (#7). Pass-play success: 52.7% (#3).

Rush plays: 462 (#14). Rush rate: 43.4% (#16). Yards per rush: 3.97 (#29). Rush-play success: 42.4% (#21).

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -0.5 (#13); they passed 53.9% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): Mac Jones (52.3% success on 304 pass plays), Brock Purdy (53.4% success on 298 pass plays).

On rushes (2025 PBP success definition): Christian McCaffrey (39.2% success on 311 rushes), Brian Robinson (43.5% success on 92 rushes), Brock Purdy (65.5% success on 29 rushes).

San Francisco passed on 56.6% of plays (#17) and rushed 43.4% (#16), with 603 pass plays and 462 rushes. Pass efficiency was elite at 6.90 yards per pass play (#7) and 52.7% success (#3). The run game averaged 3.97 yards per rush (#29) with 42.4% success (#21).

On neutral downs, PROE was -0.5 (#13) with a 53.9% pass rate. Brock Purdy had a 53.4% success rate on 298 pass plays; Mac Jones 52.3% on 304. Christian McCaffrey had 39.2% PBP rush-play success on 311 rushes; Brian Robinson 43.5% on 92; Purdy 65.5% on 29 rushes.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

The San Francisco 49ers relied heavily on their 11 personnel package, which features one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers, for the vast majority of their offensive snaps in 2025. This grouping accounted for 853 plays and generated a robust 1.47 full PPR fantasy points per play, making it the clear engine of the offense. The primary contributors within this high-volume set included Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jauan Jennings, Kendrick Bourne, and Ricky Pearsall. When the team shifted to a heavier 12 personnel look with two tight ends, production dipped to 1.28 fantasy points per play across 199 snaps, utilizing Luke Farrell alongside Kittle while still leaning on McCaffrey, Jennings, and Pearsall in the passing game.

In terms of alignment, the offense operated out of the shotgun formation on 555 plays, representing 52.2% of their total snaps and yielding the highest efficiency at 1.79 fantasy points per play. The unit also spent significant time under center, taking 486 snaps (45.7%) but producing a lower return of 1.13 fantasy points per play. Pistol formation usage was minimal, appearing on only 23 snaps for a 2.2% share and resulting in just 0.76 fantasy points per play. Shotgun was San Francisco's most productive listed formation at 1.79 FP/play, while 11 personnel was its dominant personnel grouping at 853 plays.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #2; play-action rank #19 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

San Francisco’s quarterback room ranks eighth overall, anchored by Brock Purdy and Mac Jones. Purdy demonstrated superior efficiency during the 2025 campaign, posting a +0.13 EPA per dropback and a +6.8% CPOE across nine games (Jones actually handled slightly more pass-play volume at 304 vs Purdy’s 298). Purdy’s fantasy production reflected that efficiency, averaging 22.8 points with a floor of 18.8 and a ceiling of 31.9. Mac Jones appeared in 11 games with eight starts; the table’s DK GP = 8 is the fantasy-tracked sample, not official games played. Jones recorded +0.07 EPA per dropback and +3.5% CPOE, averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game with a 0.2–25.2 floor-to-ceiling range.

Supporting the passing attack is an offensive line unit ranked seventh, which provides a solid foundation for pocket stability and protection. This high ranking suggests the quarterbacks should have adequate time to execute downfield concepts, complementing the efficiency numbers posted by Purdy in particular. The combination of a top-ten quarterback group and a top-ten offensive line creates a favorable environment for sustained passing success, assuming health and continuity among the returning holdovers. The staff can rely on this structural strength to maximize the positive expected points added per dropback that Purdy generated throughout the previous season.

Looking ahead to 2026, the passing game outlook remains tied to the performance of these two quarterbacks within a highly rated offensive infrastructure. Purdy’s ability to maintain his +6.8% CPOE and strong EPA figures will be critical for the unit to justify its eighth-place ranking. With the offensive line providing reliable protection, the burden falls on the quarterbacks to convert opportunities into high-value plays without relying on excessive volume alone. The team expects this core group to continue driving the aerial attack as established contributors rather than new acquisitions.

Top two QBs. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample (Jones’s eight fantasy starts), not official games played (11 appearances / 8 starts). Slate Win = weeks in the top N at that DK position on the salary slate (QB 5 / RB·WR 12 / TE 6).

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

San Francisco’s receiving corps ranks sixth overall, but free agency, the draft, and August roster status have reshaped the room. In 2025, Jennings led the wide receivers with 90 targets and a 19.8% TGT% before leaving for Minnesota. Kittle commanded the highest TGT% in the table (24.6%) while generating +43.5 reception EPA in 11 games, and is coming off a January Achilles tear — activated from PUP on August 23 and targeting a possible Week 1 return without having resumed team drills yet. Ricky Pearsall’s 2025 tape was strong (+23.5 reception EPA), but he was placed on season-ending IR on August 1 (PCL) and is unavailable for 2026. Brandon Aiyuk remains on Reserve/Left Squad and does not count toward the active roster. Jake Tonges provided TE depth with 46 targets and a 20.6% TGT%.

To offset the churn, San Francisco added Mike Evans and Christian Kirk in free agency and re-signed Deebo Samuel Sr. on August 1. Kirk is currently working through a calf issue in camp. They join a receiving corps that still funnels heavy volume through Christian McCaffrey (99 early-down targets, 25 red-zone targets). Jennings’s 24.4% red-zone target share is open for Evans, Kirk, Deebo, Demarcus Robinson, and Stribling. Robinson had 35 targets last season with only four red-zone targets.

The 2026 outlook hinges on Evans, Kirk, and Deebo integrating beside Robinson and rookie De'Zhaun Stribling (pick 33) as Kittle works back from the Achilles tear toward a possible Week 1 role. With the quarterback unit ranked eighth, the structure is there, but target share will move away from Jennings/Bourne/Pearsall toward the new WR trio and McCaffrey’s passing-game role.

TGT% is NFL+ target percentage over each player's qualifying sample (not a season-long share of every team target).

Overall Targets

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks San Francisco’s rushing attack seventh overall, with an offensive line also graded seventh. Christian McCaffrey anchored the backfield in 2025, carrying the ball 311 times for 1,202 yards across 17 games. His efficiency metrics showed room for improvement, as he posted a negative rush EPA of -28.0 and an NFL+ success rate of 40.2 percent (distinct from his 39.2% 2025 PBP rush-play success on the same 311 attempts). Brian Robinson contributed as a secondary option before his departure, logging 92 attempts for 400 yards in 15 appearances. Those carries must be redistributed while the front five’s established strength keeps supporting the ground game.

Red-zone usage heavily favored McCaffrey, who had 75 rushes and 25 targets inside the 20 (100 red-zone opportunities). He recorded 17 total red-zone touchdowns across those chances (10 rushing and 7 receiving on the season overall), accumulating 146.0 red-zone fantasy points against 160.3 expected. Robinson saw limited work near the goal line, recording just 13 red-zone rushes and two scores before leaving the team. The loss of Robinson removes a veteran presence from the depth chart, but the unit’s high ranking suggests the system remains potent despite the change in personnel.

Looking ahead to 2026, Christian McCaffrey remains the unquestioned RB1 behind a top-ten offensive line. Depth includes Khalil Herbert (re-signed August 20), third-rounder Kaelon Black, Jordan James, and Sincere McCormick, with Patrick Taylor Jr. on IR and Isaac Guerendo remaining on PUP with an eventual path back into the rotation. Maintaining efficiency without Robinson’s 92 carries still matters, but the structural advantages of the blocking unit and McCaffrey’s volume give the ground game a stable foundation.

Rush GP = NFL+ games with a recorded rush attempt (not full-season DK appearances). NFL+ Succ % is the NFL+ rushing success rate — distinct from 2025 PBP rush-play success in the Pass Rate / Rush Rate section. Slate Win = weeks finishing in the top N at that DraftKings position on the salary slate (QB top 5, RB/WR top 12, TE top 6). DKavg, floor, ceiling, and Slate Win use weekly DraftKings logs.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

RZ TD (all) = combined rushing and receiving touchdowns scored on red-zone opportunities — not rushing TDs alone.

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The San Francisco 49ers demonstrated a potent offensive output during the 2025 regular season, averaging 25.7 points per game to rank tenth in the league. This scoring efficiency translated even more favorably in full PPR fantasy metrics, where the unit generated 91.1 fantasy points per game, securing the sixth-best mark across the NFL. That strong 2025 offensive production now carries into a 2026 schedule that Sharp ranks eighth-easiest.

Defensively, the group allowed 21.8 points per contest, which placed them at number 13 in terms of real points surrendered. However, their performance looked different through a fantasy lens, as they yielded 87.4 full PPR fantasy points per game to opponents, ranking 21st in that specific metric. This gap suggests that while the defense was effective at limiting actual scoreboard damage, they may have allowed enough volume or intermediate production to inflate opponent fantasy totals. Balancing these realities will be key as the team aims to meet its 10.5-win forecast for the upcoming season.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The San Francisco 49ers demonstrated their most potent offensive output during the second quarter, where they averaged 7.7 points per game to rank eighth in the league. This scoring surge correlated with strong fantasy production, as the unit generated 25.8 full PPR points per game in that period, also placing them eighth overall. The first quarter proved nearly as effective for real scoring, with the team posting 5.6 points per game to maintain an eighth-place ranking, while accumulating 20.8 fantasy points per contest to sit sixth in the NFL. These early and mid-game stretches highlight where the offense found its most consistent rhythm against opposing defenses.

Defensively, fourth-quarter fantasy points allowed were 25.2 per game (ranked #21 on the fewest-allowed scale). Real points allowed in Q4 were 6.4 per game (#14 fewest-allowed). Third-quarter fantasy allowed was 18.1 (#17), with 4.3 real points (#14). First-quarter fantasy allowed was 19.2 per game at #25 on the fewest-allowed scale — below average, not a stout mark.

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #8, Secondary #26.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + tackle-with-assist + assists). Includes production with a prior team when recent_team is this club.

Dee Winters led the club with 101 tackles; Bryce Huff 4.0 sacks, Clelin Ferrell 4.0 sacks, Sam Okuayinonu 3.0 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Dee Winters: 8 TFL, 1 INT, 5 PD; Tatum Bethune: 4 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 4 PD; Upton Stout: 4 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 5 PD; Ji'Ayir Brown: 2 TFL, 2 INT, 6 PD; Malik Mustapha: 3 TFL, 1 INT, 3 PD; Deommodore Lenoir: 4 TFL, 2 INT, 5 PD.

The San Francisco 49ers enter the 2026 campaign with a defense that Sharp ranks eighth in the Front 7 but twenty-sixth in the Secondary, highlighting a clear disparity between the line and the backfield. The unit turns over after EDGE Bryce Huff retired (4.0 sacks in 2025) and interior linemen Jordan Elliott, Kevin Givens, and Kalia Davis left. Linebacker depth loses Eric Kendricks, Curtis Robinson, and Dee Winters (101 tackles, 8 TFL), but Dre Greenlaw returns and currently leads the WILL depth chart, and the August 25 acquisition of Deion Jones from New Orleans (for Zamir White) adds more veteran linebacker depth. Osa Odighizuwa arrives via trade and rookie Gracen Halton adds DT depth.

In the secondary (Sharp #26), Jason Pinnock, Chase Lucas, and Tre Tomlinson are gone, but Nate Hobbs joins the nickel group as a direct test of that ranking. Ji'Ayir Brown (2 TFL, 2 INT, 6 PD) and Malik Mustapha anchor the safeties, with Renardo Green (10 PD) and rookie Ephesians Prysock at corner. Clelin Ferrell and Robert Beal Jr. also exited the edge rotation.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams

Eddy Pineiro: 33/36 FG, 40/44 PAT.

Thomas Morstead led with 44 punts (22 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Skyy Moore (player KR yards only): 33 returns for 907 yards.

Punt returner Skyy Moore (player PR yards only): 25 returns for 291 yards.

Skyy Moore combined KR+PR: 1198 yards (player). Team kickoff-return yards = 1385.

Special teams tackler Luke Gifford: 20 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs (solo + with-assist + assists).

Eddy Pineiro anchors the kicking game, converting 33 of 36 field goals (91.7%) with six from 50+ (long 59) and 40 of 44 PATs. Thomas Morstead handled 2025 punting (44 punts, 22 inside the 20, 0 blocked) but has departed; Corliss Waitman is the current August 17 depth-chart punter.

Skyy Moore handled 2025 returns (33 KR for 907; 25 PR for 291) before leaving for Green Bay. The August 17 depth chart lists Deebo Samuel Sr. as KOR1 and Jacob Cowing as PR1. Luke Gifford led coverage with 20 combined ST tackles and remains on the roster.

Penalty Analysis

San Francisco had the second-fewest penalties per game in 2025, trailing only the Rams. The unit excelled in specific situational categories, recording the fewest pre-snap infractions and the lowest rate of offensive holding and false starts league-wide. Their special teams group was the least penalized in the NFL, while the offense led the league in avoiding flags on third-down plays and during the fourth quarter. This control extended to home games, where they averaged the fewest penalties per contest. A significant turnaround occurred regarding yardage impact; after suffering the third-worst net negative penalty yards in 2024, the team flipped the script to become a top-10 beneficiary in yards gained per game through opponent infractions in 2025.

Despite the low overall volume of flags, the nature of these penalties still reveals inefficiencies in capitalizing on defensive mistakes. The 49ers ranked second-most in unnecessary roughness calls. More critically, their offense averaged just 7.8 yards per beneficial defensive pass interference penalty, well below the 15.2-yard league average. Sharp notes that Mike Evans’s arrival from Tampa Bay could help rectify this disparity, given his history with units that draw and convert DPI efficiently.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 39 penalties for 280 yards (#1) — 47% of the team's 83 penalties. Most common: False Start (14), Offensive Holding (11), Delay of Game (4). Most flags in Shotgun (10), Under Center (8). Most flagged players: Colton McKivitz (5), Trent Williams (4), Dominick Puni (4).

Defense: 44 penalties for 371 yards (#9) — 53% of team penalties. Most common: Unnecessary Roughness (9), Defensive Holding (8), Defensive Pass Interference (7). Most flags in Cover 1 (13), Cover 3 (6), Cover 4 (3). Most flagged players: Deommodore Lenoir (10), Upton Stout (7), Tatum Bethune (4).

The San Francisco 49ers offense was responsible for 39 penalties totaling 280 yards, which accounted for 47% of the team’s 83 total infractions. False starts were the most frequent issue with 14 occurrences, followed by 11 offensive holding calls and four delay of game penalties. These mistakes appeared most often when the unit operated out of shotgun formation, which drew 10 flags, compared to eight flags while under center. Individual discipline issues were concentrated among the offensive line, as Colton McKivitz led the group with five penalties, while Trent Williams and Dominick Puni each committed four infractions.

On the other side of the ball, the defense accrued 44 penalties for 371 yards, representing 53% of the team’s total. Unnecessary roughness was the primary defensive-side concern with nine calls, accompanied by eight defensive holding penalties and seven defensive pass interference flags. Coverage schemes played a significant role in these outcomes, as Cover 1 alignments resulted in 13 penalties, far exceeding the six flags in Cover 3 and three in Cover 4. Deommodore Lenoir was the most penalized defender with 10 flags, while Upton Stout committed seven and Tatum Bethune added four to the defensive tally.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Christian McCaffrey RB3, Brock Purdy QB10.

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the roster call — who to target, who to fade, and who inherits work from free agency and the draft.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Christian McCaffrey (24.4 FPavg), Brock Purdy (19.5 FPavg), George Kittle (14.7 FPavg), Mac Jones (14.4 FPavg), Jauan Jennings (11.4 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP). Box Yds are yards on those rushes only — not season rushing yards.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Coverage Total-FP leaders: COVER 3 led by Christian McCaffrey 55; COVER 2 led by Jauan Jennings 70; COVER 1 led by Christian McCaffrey 45; COVER 4 led by Christian McCaffrey 24; COVER 0 led by Christian McCaffrey 18; COVER 6 led by Jake Tonges 17; 2 MAN led by Christian McCaffrey 13; COVER 9 led by Christian McCaffrey 10.

Christian McCaffrey remains the focal point of San Francisco's offense and led the team in fantasy points against six of the eight charted coverages in 2025. He was especially productive against Cover 3 (55 FP) and still topped Cover 1, Cover 4, Cover 0, 2 Man, and Cover 9. Jauan Jennings led Cover 2 (70 FP) and Jake Tonges led Cover 6 (17 FP), so McCaffrey was not universal across every shell.

Behind McCaffrey, Jennings was particularly productive against Cover 2 (70 FP) and added 16 points against Cover 4. George Kittle finished second against Cover 3 with 48 points and added 11 against 2 Man. Ricky Pearsall was second behind McCaffrey against Cover 1 with 37 points.

Tonges’ strongest coverage-specific output came against Cover 6 (17 FP), though that sample was small; he also finished second against Cover 0 and Cover 9 in similarly thin play counts (Cover 0, Cover 6, and Cover 9 combined were under 13% of charted plays). McCaffrey remains the clear volume leader; Jennings and Kittle still posted useful coverage-specific totals in 2025.

Skill adds: Mike Evans (WR), Christian Kirk (WR), Deebo Samuel Sr. (WR) (1-year; re-signed August 1 after Pearsall IR), and Khalil Herbert (RB) (re-signed August 20).

Skill losses: Kendrick Bourne (WR) to the Cardinals, Brian Robinson Jr. (RB) to the Falcons, Skyy Moore (WR) to the Packers, Trent Taylor (WR) (retired), Jauan Jennings (WR) to the Vikings, and Zamir White (RB) to the Saints.

Skill draft picks: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, Rd 2, Ole Miss) and Kaelon Black (RB, Rd 3, Indiana).

Unavailable / status: Ricky Pearsall (season-ending IR), Brandon Aiyuk (Reserve/Left Squad), Patrick Taylor Jr. (IR), Isaac Guerendo (PUP).

Christian McCaffrey remains the focal point, averaging 24.4 full PPR fantasy points per game against 26.5 xFPavg — about 2.1 FP/G below opportunity-based expectation, which can imply unrealized upside rather than superior realized efficiency. George Kittle offers a high-floor TE at 14.7 FPavg (above his 12.2 xFPavg) but is recovering from an Achilles tear and only recently came off PUP. Brock Purdy averaged 19.5 FPavg across nine games; Mac Jones provides proven backup depth at 14.4 FPavg rather than a dual-threat tandem under center.

The receiving corps reshuffles with Jennings (Vikings) and Bourne (Cardinals) gone and Pearsall on season-ending IR. Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, and re-signed Deebo Samuel Sr. are the headliners, with Demarcus Robinson and rookie De'Zhaun Stribling in the mix. Target share should redistribute toward Evans/Kirk/Deebo rather than a Pearsall-led holdover path.

In the backfield, McCaffrey remains the unquestioned RB1. Behind him, Kaelon Black, Jordan James, Khalil Herbert, Sincere McCormick, and Isaac Guerendo, if/when activated from PUP, compete for the carries Robinson left behind; Kyle Juszczyk still offers 3.8 FPavg utility. Backup RB touches stay volatile, so established pass-catchers usually outrank speculative RB2s. If Kittle’s recovery continues on schedule, his return alongside the rebuilt receiver room gives San Francisco the pieces for another productive passing attack.

Inside Scoop

Sharp’s overall grade for San Francisco 49ers is an A+. The forecast projects 10.5 wins (3rd in the NFC West) after a 12-5 prior season. Head coach ranks 3rd; secondary ranks 26th — now with Nate Hobbs in the nickel mix. SOS is 8th-easiest (1=easiest). That slate helps, but only if the roster holds up physically.

Reliance on Trent Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa, and a returning-from-Achilles George Kittle creates upside and downside. San Francisco has room to improve if health normalizes from an injury-plagued 2025, but age and medical history among cornerstone players still create risk. Key additions (Evans, Kirk, Deebo, Odighizuwa, Greenlaw, Hobbs, Herbert, Deion Jones) and Waitman at punter refresh the roster; Pearsall’s IR and Aiyuk’s Reserve/Left Squad status leave real holes in the 2026 receiver room.

---

Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.