NFL 2026 PREVIEW: TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

Tampa Bay enters 2026 with Warren Sharp’s forecast at 8.5 wins and first place in the NFC South, a bump from last year’s 8-9 finish. The market prices them as virtual pick’ems at a 0.2 average line, 1.5-point home favorites and 2.1-point road underdogs, with nine games as favorite and eight as underdog. Sharp’s strength of schedule sits 18th (1 = easiest). The 2025 club scored 22.4 points per game (18th) and allowed 24.2 (20th), going 9-7-1 against the spread and 8-9 to the over/under.

Todd Bowles is in year five with a Sharp head-coach rank of 19, and Baker Mayfield remains the starter. Sharp’s strongest listed unit is the offensive line at #4, while the running backs sit at #22, creating a clear gap between an elite blocking grade and a more modest backfield ranking.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: A'Shawn Robinson (IDL), Alex Anzalone (LB), Kenneth Gainwell (RB), Al-Quadin Muhammad (ED), Miles Killebrew (S), Christian Rozeboom (LB), and Rakeem Nuñez-Roches (IDL).

Key Departures: Mike Evans (WR) to the 49ers, Haason Reddick (EDGE), Jamel Dean (CB) to the Steelers, Lavonte David (LB, retired), Logan Hall (IDL) to the Texans, Greg Gaines (IDL), Christian Izien (S) to the Lions, Rachaad White (RB) to the Commanders, Teddy Bridgewater (QB) to the Lions, Sterling Shepard (WR), J.T. Gray (S) to the Eagles, Charlie Heck (RT) to the Dolphins, Kindle Vildor (CB) to the Patriots, Anthony Walker Jr. (LB), Deion Jones (LB), Michael Jordan (LG), Jaden Smith (WR), Markees Watts (EDGE), and Tyler Mclellan (RT).

The coordinator change that actually landed is on offense. Zac Robinson is in his first season calling Tampa’s attack, replacing Josh Grizzard after one year. Robinson comes from the McVay tree, and his concepts overlap the Liam Coen system that produced Mayfield’s 2024 bounce. Todd Bowles still calls the defense. George Edwards is in his fourth season here and his second as pass-game coordinator. Larry Foote runs the run game and the outside linebackers. Tampa does not list a defensive coordinator.

Mike Evans signed with the 49ers and Rachaad White with the Commanders. Lavonte David retired after 14 seasons. Kenneth Gainwell arrives from a 2025 Steelers season that Sharp flags as a receiving-back breakout. Rakeem Nuñez-Roches came back in April as Vita Vea’s nose-tackle complement after three years in New York. A'Shawn Robinson, Alex Anzalone, Christian Rozeboom, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and Miles Killebrew are the other dashboard adds charged with replacing that front-seven and secondary volume.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

Tampa Bay spent the top of the draft on the front seven, and both early picks are Week 1 starters. Rueben Bain Jr. fell to pick 15. Sharp treated that as a Day 1 steal rather than a reach: a 14.7% pressure rate in Miami’s tight alignments, and 17.8% when he lined up at 7-tech or wider. He opens opposite Yaya Diaby. Josiah Trotter at pick 46 won the inside linebacker job over SirVocea Dennis.

The rest of the class already has opening jobs. Ted Hurst (third round, Georgia State) opens as the backup behind Jalen McMillan at one of Tampa’s outside receiver spots. Keionte Scott is in the secondary rotation, DeMonte Capehart is the DL2, Billy Schrauth is the backup left guard, and Bauer Sharp is TE4.

Sharp Forecasts Tampa Bay Buccaneers with 8.5 Wins

Over Case: Sharp forecasts 8.5 wins. That is his projection, sitting on the same number as the posted win total. The book's over case is the argument for finishing with more than 8.5: fourth in accepted penalties (95), fifth in penalty yards (737), a +7 turnover margin, and fumble luck that landed in their favor. If Robinson gets a healthier Mayfield and Tampa again wins the turnover and penalty margins, the case for exceeding 8.5 strengthens.

Under Case: The under case is that 2025’s close-game and health stories do not repeat as wins. Tampa was 21st in yards per play, 0-8 when trailing at the half, and 4-4 in eight games against non-playoff teams. Offensive red-zone touchdown rate was 23rd. Defensive red-zone touchdown rate allowed was 32nd. Evans is gone, Mayfield spent 2025 on the injury report, and Sharp asks how a defensive head coach keeps this job if the pass rush again finishes bottom-10 in sack rate.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Sharp’s rest-disparity bake ranks Tampa 20th in net rest edge at minus-two days versus opponents, with seven weeks carrying a non-zero differential. The first three games sit at zero, Week 4 at Green Bay is minus-three, and Week 6 against Pittsburgh flips to plus-three. Prep rank on the timing board is 1, the best mark on that table, so the calendar is not short on preparation time even as the net rest total sits in the bottom third.

Rest rank is 10th. Short-week road games rank 18th, and both games-off-road prime-time and negated-bye ranks sit 19th. The two recovery windows that actually move the strip are a plus-one rest edge for the Sunday Night trip to Chicago in Week 9 and a plus-seven before Detroit in Week 11. The other side of that ledger is minus-seven at Baltimore in Week 14.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club -2 days.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Baker Mayfield (11 INT, 3 FL), Bucky Irving (1 FL), Sterling Shepard (1 FL). Takeaways: Jamel Dean (3 INT), Tykee Smith (1 INT, 2 FR), Lavonte David (1 INT, 2 FR), Antoine Winfield Jr. (2 INT, 1 FR), Jacob Parrish (2 INT, 1 FR), Vita Vea (1 FR)

Tampa Bay finished 2025 with a +7 net turnover margin. Giveaways were 16 (#9) and takeaways 23 (#7). Baker Mayfield threw 11 of the 11 interceptions and lost three fumbles. Bucky Irving and Sterling Shepard each lost one fumble. The team’s five fumbles lost ranked #5.

The defense’s 13 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries were spread around. Jamel Dean had three picks, then left for Pittsburgh. Lavonte David added one interception and two recoveries before he retired. Antoine Winfield Jr. and Jacob Parrish each had two interceptions, and Tykee Smith had one pick and two recoveries.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Baker Mayfield 234 yards; Teddy Bridgewater 21 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 35/658 ≈ 5.3% of shotgun plays; 3/365 ≈ 0.8% of under center plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures. The defense recorded sacks across several coverage looks; those splits describe where sacks occurred, not how efficient the rush was in each shell.

Sack leaders (defense): Yaya Diaby (7), Vita Vea (4.5), Lavonte David (3.5), SirVocea Dennis (3)

Baker Mayfield lost 234 yards to sacks. Teddy Bridgewater lost 21. The line allowed 38 sacks (#16). Shotgun accounted for 35 of those on 658 shotgun plays. Under center accounted for three on 365 under-center plays.

The defense recorded 37 sacks (#18). Yaya Diaby led with seven, Vita Vea 4.5, Lavonte David 3.5, SirVocea Dennis three. Seven sacks came with Cover 4 on the field, the highest Cover 4 sack count in the league. Six came with 2 Man (#2 in that count). Four-man rushes produced 24 of the 37. Sharp still flags a bottom-10 overall sack rate and a 5.9% sack rate when blitzing (#24) across 600 opposing dropbacks.

Return Touchdowns

Kickoff returner Kameron Johnson: 27 returns for 685 yards.

Punt returner Kameron Johnson: 26 returns for 291 yards.

Punt returns 26 for 291 yards; kickoff returns 61 for 1484 yards.

Tampa scored zero punt or kickoff return touchdowns (#13) and allowed zero (#1 on a fewest-allowed scale). Kameron Johnson handled 27 kickoff returns for 685 yards and 26 punt returns for 291 yards. Team kickoff returns were 61 for 1,484 yards.

Penalties

Offense: 61 penalties for 465 yards (#17). Most common: Offensive Holding (24), False Start (19), Offensive Pass Interference (5). Most flags in Shotgun (20), Under Center (7). Most flagged players: Luke Goedeke (6), Graham Barton (5), Cade Otton (5).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 34 penalties for 272 yards (#3), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Offside (7), Illegal Contact (5), Roughing the Passer (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (6), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (3). Most flagged players: Logan Hall (4), Jamel Dean (3), Vita Vea (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Tampa's 95 accepted penalties ranked fourth-fewest in the HackingDFS calculation (737 yards). Offense sat 17th (61 flags, 465 yards). The defense-side nflverse bucket sat third (34 flags, 272 yards), including two offensive holdings on punt returns.

Offensive Holding led the penalty type list at 24, then 19 false starts, five offensive pass interferences, and five delays of game. Luke Goedeke (6), Graham Barton (5), and Cade Otton (5) led the individual list. The defense-side bucket clustered in defensive offside (7), illegal contact (5), and roughing the passer (4).

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 801 plays, 41.4% success, 0.01 EPA/play (#20). Most efficient on early downs: Jalen McMillan (11 plays, 0.35 EPA/play), Chris Godwin Jr. (31 plays, 0.34 EPA/play), Tez Johnson (42 plays, 0.29 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 149 plays, 38.9% success, -0.00 EPA/play (#18). Most efficient in the red zone: Tez Johnson (9 plays, 0.68 EPA/play), Rachaad White (29 plays, 0.14 EPA/play), Mike Evans (9 plays, 0.08 EPA/play).

Tampa Bay ran 801 early-down plays at 41.4% success and 0.01 EPA/play (#20). The most efficient associated names in that sample were Jalen McMillan (11 plays, 0.35 EPA/play), Chris Godwin Jr. (31, 0.34), and Tez Johnson (42, 0.29).

Red-zone offense was 149 plays, 38.9% success, and a flat -0.00 EPA/play (#18). Tez Johnson led that sample at 0.68 EPA/play on nine plays. Rachaad White (29 plays, 0.14) and Mike Evans (nine plays, 0.08) are 2025 rows. Both are gone.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -4.8 (#22); they passed 49.1% of those snaps.

On pass plays: Baker Mayfield (43.2% success on 584 pass plays).

On rushes: Bucky Irving (34.7% success on 173 rush plays), Rachaad White (48.1% success on 133 rush plays), Sean Tucker (37.2% success on 86 rush plays). Play-by-play rush-play success, not NFL+ success on official carries.

Tampa passed on 56.4% of plays (#18) across 601 pass plays and ran on 43.6% (#15) across 464 rush plays. Pass-play success was 42.3% (#26). Rush-play success was 42.5% (#20). Yards per pass play were 5.83 (#23). Yards per rush play were 4.22 (#26). Mayfield’s PBP success on 584 pass plays was 43.2%.

Neutral-down PROE was -4.8 (#22) with a 49.1% pass rate on those snaps. Rachaad White posted a 48.1% success rate across 133 rush plays. Bucky Irving had the heavier sample, 173 rush plays at 34.7% success. Sean Tucker had 86 rush plays at 37.2%.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

Tampa generated 64 explosives (#10) for 1,843 yards: 55 passes for 1,586 and nine rush for 257. Emeka Egbuka led with 20 explosive receptions for 605 yards. Cade Otton had seven for 158. Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin Jr., Mike Evans, and Sterling Shepard each had five receiving explosives. Mayfield added five explosive rushes for 123 yards. Coverages beaten on offense were Cover 1 (17 for 432), Cover 3 (14 for 408), and Cover 2 (14 for 394).

The defense allowed 66 explosives (#22) for 2,061 yards: 55 pass for 1,640 and 11 rush for 421. Coverages on the field when those gains happened were Cover 3 (22 for 640), Cover 1 (15 for 474), and Cover 2 (13 for 414). Bijan Robinson, Tyrell Shavers, and Jahmyr Gibbs each had three receiving explosives allowed. TreVeyon Henderson had two rushing explosives for 124 yards.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Tampa lived in 11 personnel: 746 plays at 1.48 full PPR points per play, with Rachaad White, Cade Otton, Emeka Egbuka, Sterling Shepard, and Tez Johnson as the most-used names in that package. 12 personnel (two tight ends) appeared on 224 plays at 0.95 FP/play. 21 personnel appeared on 49 plays at 0.84 FP/play. 13 personnel appeared on 30 plays at 0.38 FP/play.

Shotgun was 658 plays (61.8%) at 1.49 FP/play. Under center was 365 plays (34.3%) at 0.91. Pistol was 42 plays (3.9%) at 1.53. RPOs were 85 plays (8.0%) at 0.56 and are also counted inside shotgun, pistol, or under center. The shotgun and pistol samples produced more full-PPR points per play than the under-center sample. That is the observed split.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #6; play-action rank #31 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Tampa ranked sixth in pre-snap motion at 62.2% of plays. Play-action rate was 10.1%, 31st in the league. Motion plays succeeded 44.0% of the time and averaged 1.38 full PPR points per play against 1.15 without motion. Play action appeared on 108 plays, succeeded 48.1% of the time, and averaged 2.21 points per play against 1.19 without it.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Baker Mayfield opened 2025 at 13 touchdowns and two interceptions before the Week 9 bye, then threw 13 more touchdowns against nine interceptions over the final nine games. Completion percentage held near 63.9% then 62.4%. Yards per attempt fell from 7.1 to 6.5. His NFL+ season averages are -0.01 EPA per dropback and -1.7% CPOE. Sharp ranks the quarterback room #16. The Buccaneers replaced Josh Grizzard with Zac Robinson in a scheme that overlaps the Coen system from 2024.

Mayfield started all 17 games on a long injury report (ankle, knee, oblique, shoulder). Any contract uncertainty also disappeared before Week 1 when Tampa extended Mayfield through the 2029 season. DraftKings tracked 18.1 points per game, a 14.1 floor, a 23.8 ceiling, and zero Slate Hits at $6,300. Teddy Bridgewater left for Detroit and the active backup is undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels, who beat out Jake Browning and Connor Bazelak; Easton Stick is on the practice squad. Billy Schrauth is a fifth-round interior add. Sharp ranks the offensive line fourth entering 2026, giving Mayfield one of the league’s highest-rated supporting fronts despite the 234 sack yards he absorbed last season.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Hit, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Hit = weeks in the top N in DraftKings points at that position on the salary slate (QB 3 / RB 8 / WR 12 / TE 5). That is a slate-relevant ceiling finish, not a claim the player was needed to win the GPP. DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks Tampa Bay’s receiving corps tied for 12th. Emeka Egbuka led the 2025 club with 127 targets, a 24.0% share, 12.2 air yards per target, 92 early-down targets, and 15 red-zone looks. He caught 63 passes for 938 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie. Chris Godwin Jr. posted +9.1 Reception EPA in nine games and never reached a full-season snap share. Jalen McMillan was on injured reserve until Week 15 and finished with 15 targets. Tez Johnson’s 44-target sample produced 2.10 DK points per target and 4.19 red-zone fantasy points per look.

Cade Otton remains the volume tight end at 81 targets and 15.9%. Payne Durham’s four-game NFL+ sample is a depth line. Ted Hurst opens as the backup behind Jalen McMillan at one of Tampa’s outside receiver spots. Mike Evans and Sterling Shepard leave behind 115 combined 2025 targets, increasing the importance of McMillan, Godwin, Egbuka, and the rookie Hurst. Egbuka is the player Sharp calls the undisputed WR1. Godwin’s durability remains a season-level question after a nine-game 2025, but he was not listed on Tampa’s Week 1 injury report through Thursday. McMillan was limited Wednesday and Thursday with a knee. Johnson is the efficiency dart.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Bucky Irving led 2025 with 173 carries in 10 games, 3.4 yards per carry, -40.5 Rush EPA, -0.8 RYOE per attempt, and a 34.1% NFL+ success rate. Foot and shoulder injuries cost him Weeks 5 through 12. He came back as a between-the-20s runner and had February shoulder surgery. Rachaad White played all 17 games on 132 carries, +11.3 Rush EPA, and a 50.0% success rate, then left for Washington. Sean Tucker’s 86 rushes produced seven rushing touchdowns. Sharp’s team rushing recap had the backs at 3.8 yards per attempt (28th) and 2.55 yards after contact (32nd).

Red-zone rushing was a committee. Tucker had 21 red-zone rushes, three targets, six total red-zone touchdowns, and 42.7 fantasy points. White had 10 targets, 19 rushes, and four scores. Irving had 18 rushes, four targets, and two scores. Kenneth Gainwell is the dashboard add. Sharp puts his 2025 breakout in Pittsburgh: 73 catches, more than 1,000 scrimmage yards, and eight touchdowns. Tampa lists Irving first, Gainwell second, and Tucker third. Tucker’s hamstring issue puts more immediate Week 1 attention on Irving and Gainwell after Tucker improved from a Wednesday absence to limited work Thursday. Irving still has to find the 2024 version of himself. Sharp ranks the 2026 running backs 22nd in front of an offensive line he ranks 4th.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Offense TDs (rush/rec): Sean Tucker 8 (7 rush, 1 rec); Emeka Egbuka 6 rec; Tez Johnson 5 rec; Bucky Irving 4 (1 rush, 3 rec); Rachaad White 4 rush. Passing TDs: Baker Mayfield 26. Defense TDs: Anthony Nelson (1 def TD); Jamel Dean (1 def TD). Special teams: Chase McLaughlin 32/38 FG, 32/33 XP; no punt/kickoff return TDs.

Baker Mayfield threw 26 touchdowns. Sean Tucker led skill scoring with eight total touchdowns (seven rush, one receiving). Emeka Egbuka had six receiving scores and Tez Johnson five. Bucky Irving had four total (one rush, three receiving). Rachaad White had four rushing touchdowns. Anthony Nelson and Jamel Dean each scored a defensive touchdown. Chase McLaughlin hit 32 of 38 field goals and 32 of 33 extra points. The club scored no punt- or kickoff-return touchdowns.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Tampa’s offense was weakest in the first and fourth quarters (4.2 and 4.8 points, ranks 23 and 31) and strongest in the second and third (7.2 and 6.2, ranks 13 and 6). Full-PPR fantasy output peaked in the third quarter at 22.3 per game (#4). The fourth-quarter scoring rank of 31st is the real-points hole.

The defense allowed its most fantasy points in the second and fourth quarters (26.0 and 25.4). Third-quarter points allowed were 4.4 (#17 fewest). First-quarter points allowed were 5.2 (#23).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #14, Secondary #19.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Lavonte David led the club with 114 tackles; Yaya Diaby 7.0 sacks, Vita Vea 4.5 sacks, Lavonte David 3.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Lavonte David: 8 TFL, 3.5 sacks, 1 INT, 3 PD; SirVocea Dennis: 10 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 1 INT, 5 PD; Tykee Smith: 6 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 1 INT, 13 PD; Antoine Winfield Jr.: 4 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 2 INT, 8 PD; Jacob Parrish: 7 TFL, 2.0 sacks, 2 INT, 7 PD; Zyon McCollum: 1 TFL, 1 INT, 6 PD; Yaya Diaby: 13 TFL, 7.0 sacks, 1 PD; Vita Vea: 7 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 2 PD.

The 2025 tackle tape still belongs to Lavonte David (114), who retired after 14 seasons, and SirVocea Dennis (101). Yaya Diaby led sacks with 7.0 and 19 quarterback hits. Vita Vea had 4.5 sacks and 13 hits. Tykee Smith led passes defended with 13. Antoine Winfield Jr. had two interceptions and eight passes defended. Jamel Dean’s three interceptions are 2025 tape on a player who left. Haason Reddick’s 2.5 sacks are the same story.

The 2026 front opens with Bain as the starting edge opposite Diaby, while second-rounder Josiah Trotter won the starting inside-linebacker job next to Alex Anzalone. Nuñez-Roches is Vea’s nose-tackle complement, with A'Shawn Robinson and Calijah Kancey in the interior mix after Kancey’s three-game 2025. The secondary enters Week 1 with limited depth after Tampa kept only eight defensive backs at cutdown, placed Josh Hayes on IR/designated to return, then claimed Kevin Knowles off waivers September 2, with Sean Murphy-Bunting on the practice squad. Sharp still flags a bottom-10 overall sack rate, the worst of Bowles’s Tampa tenure.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Chase McLaughlin: 32/38 FG, 32/33 PAT.

Riley Dixon led with 63 punts (29 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Kameron Johnson: 27 returns for 685 yards.

Punt returner Kameron Johnson: 26 returns for 291 yards.

Special teams tackler Josh Hayes: 15 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Chase McLaughlin converted 32 of 38 field goals and 32 of 33 extra points, including 11 makes from 50-plus and a long of 65. Riley Dixon punted 63 times with 29 downed inside the 20 and two blocks. Josh Hayes led special-teams tackling with 15 combined stops in 2025 and is on IR/designated to return, so he must miss at least four games. David Sills is on the same IR/DFR list. Kameron Johnson was the 2025 kickoff and punt returner (27 for 685, 26 for 291). The Week 1 chart has Kameron Johnson then Tez Johnson on punts, and Sean Tucker then Kenneth Gainwell on kickoffs, with Kameron Johnson also in that kickoff mix.

Penalty Analysis

The Sharp Football Preview's Penalties & Discipline grade for Tampa Bay is A. Sharp ranks them second in net penalties per game and net penalty-yardage advantage, behind only the Rams. Forty percent of their flags landed on first down against a 33.4% league average, while Tampa also ranked among the ten least-penalized teams on third down. They were a top-three beneficiary of automatic first downs via penalty and led the league in net automatic-first-down advantage. Drawing defensive pass interference, illegal contact, and roughing the passer on opponents is part of that positive profile.

Offensive holding and offensive pass interference were 33% of Tampa’s penalties against a 21.1% league average, the split Sharp treats as a problem. On the road he has them near the clean end of the league, 30th in penalties per game.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 61 penalties for 465 yards (#17). Most common: Offensive Holding (24), False Start (19), Offensive Pass Interference (5). Most flags in Shotgun (20), Under Center (7). Most flagged players: Luke Goedeke (6), Graham Barton (5), Cade Otton (5).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 34 penalties for 272 yards (#3), including 2 Offensive Holding (punt returns) on special teams — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Offside (7), Illegal Contact (5), Roughing the Passer (4). Most flags on Cover 1 (6), Cover 3 (5), Cover 2 (3). Most flagged players: Logan Hall (4), Jamel Dean (3), Vita Vea (3).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Tampa’s offensive penalties were led by Offensive Holding (24), False Start (19), Offensive Pass Interference (5), Delay of Game (5), and Ineligible Downfield Pass (2). Most of those flags were called on shotgun plays (20) and under-center plays (7).

The defense-side nflverse bucket was led by seven defensive offsides, five illegal contacts, four roughing the passer, four defensive pass interferences, and three defensive holdings. Cover 1 (6), Cover 3 (5), and Cover 2 (3) are the shells on the field for those flags. Two offensive holdings on punt returns sit in that bucket on purpose.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Emeka Egbuka WR19.

DFS Profile labels are Cash, GPP, or GPP/Cash from each player's 2025 DraftKings salary log (weekly salary, production, floor, ceiling, Slate Hits, value). They are historical archetypes, not 2026 slate recommendations. No 2025 salary-log sample means no Profile.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Baker Mayfield (15.8 FPavg), Bucky Irving (13.8 FPavg), Emeka Egbuka (11.4 FPavg), Mike Evans (10.6 FPavg), Chris Godwin Jr. (9.0 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Those play counts are team snaps facing the coverage, not a player's snap share in that shell. Historical leaders are in the rightmost column. Box count lives in the Rushes vs Defensive Front 7 table.

Emeka Egbuka led Tampa in total fantasy points against Cover 2 (55, with Otton at 45), Cover 3 (41), Cover 1 (51), and Cover 6 (26, with Irving at 14). Cover 4 went to Rachaad White (15) and Cade Otton (12). 2 Man went to Tez Johnson (10) and Tristan Wirfs (7, his Week 13 tackle-eligible touchdown). Chris Godwin Jr. had 39 against Cover 3. Mike Evans had 32 against Cover 1 in his eight-game sample.

Skill adds: Kenneth Gainwell (RB).

Skill losses: Mike Evans (WR) to the 49ers, Rachaad White (RB) to the Commanders, Teddy Bridgewater (QB) to the Lions, Sterling Shepard (WR), and Jaden Smith (WR).

Skill draft picks: Ted Hurst (WR, Rd 3, Georgia State) and Bauer Sharp (TE, Rd 6, LSU).

2025 DFS Profile — Cash: Baker Mayfield’s DraftKings sample is 17 games, 18.1 average, 14.1 floor, 23.8 ceiling, and zero Slate Hits at $6,300. The floor and every-week volume are the Cash case.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Emeka Egbuka is Sharp’s WR19 and the 2025 volume lead (127 targets, 24.0%). DraftKings: 12.2 average, 5.0 floor, 23.6 ceiling, four Slate Hits at $6,500. Four WR12-or-better weeks and a 23.6 ceiling are tournament shape.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Chris Godwin Jr.’s DraftKings sample is nine games, 9.6 average, 5.6 floor, 14.2 ceiling, and one Slate Hit at $5,300. The 5.6 floor in that sample is the Cash case. The Slate Hit was a 26.8-point week.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Bucky Irving’s 10-game DraftKings sample is 14.3 average, 8.3 floor, 18.1 ceiling, and one Slate Hit at $7,000. The 173-carry workload and weekly volume are the Cash case. The 18.1 ceiling and Slate Hit are the GPP shape. Foot and shoulder injuries cut the sample to 10 games.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP: Kenneth Gainwell’s 2025 DraftKings sample is the Pittsburgh salary log: 17 games, 13.1 average, 6.5 floor, 23.8 ceiling, three Slate Hits at $5,000, and 2.72 FP/$. Three RB8-or-better weeks at that salary are the GPP case.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Cade Otton’s DraftKings sample is 15 games, 8.7 average, 4.8 floor, 17.2 ceiling, one TE5 Slate Hit at $3,500, and 2.39 FP/$. The weekly tight-end volume is the Cash case. The 17.2 ceiling and Slate Hit are the GPP shape.

2025 DFS Profile — GPP/Cash: Sean Tucker’s DraftKings sample is 14 games, 6.7 average, 0.8 floor, 10.2 ceiling, and one Slate Hit at $4,400. Fourteen weeks on the board at that salary are the Cash case. The Slate Hit was a 37-point week.

Inside Scoop

Sharp parks Tampa at 8.5 wins and first in the NFC South. They won that division for most of this decade, finished 8-9 last year, and this forecast puts them back on top. Head Coach Todd Bowles is on the hot seat. Mayfield now enters 2026 with long-term organizational security rather than contract-year uncertainty. Sharp’s composite positional-unit panel ranks Tampa Bay 14th overall, eight spots ahead of every other NFC South team.

Week 1 still starts with Mayfield on every passing ticket, because Daniels only plays if Mayfield cannot. Until Tucker’s hamstring clears, the rushes you would bet or roster belong to Irving and Gainwell. Evans is gone and Godwin is available after a nine-game 2025, so the early targets should start with Egbuka and Godwin. McMillan’s knee is the wildcard in that room.

Last year’s 8-9 record hid a 9-7-1 ATS season: they already covered more often than they won. Totals went 8-9 behind 22.4 points scored and 24.2 allowed, with a red-zone tape that ranked 23rd in offensive touchdown rate and 32nd in defensive touchdown rate allowed. For 2026, sides can still be live off that cover rate. Overs on the game total wait on Robinson to fix that red-zone scoring. If you want a steady floor or you play cash games, Mayfield, Irving, and Godwin are the Buccaneers to draft and target, with Otton as the volume tight end. If you want upside in tournaments, Egbuka and Gainwell posted the spike weeks, and Tucker is the cheap running back who already showed a 37-point ceiling.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.