NFL 2026 PREVIEW: WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Washington Commanders enter the 2026 campaign looking to rebound from a difficult 5-12 season in 2025. Warren Sharp’s forecast projects 7.5 wins for the team, placing them third in their division. The schedule offers a neutral challenge, ranking 15th on Sharp’s Strength of Schedule scale where 1 represents the easiest path and 32 the hardest. Unit evaluations highlight a clear disparity, with the Quarterbacks group rated as the strongest at number 14, while the Running Backs unit sits at the bottom of the league at number 32. Bettors should note that the team is projected as 1.5-point underdogs on average across the season. Addressing these structural imbalances will be essential for Washington to exceed expectations and improve upon their prior-year finish.

Research note. Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview sets the agenda for each team preview — what to cover and where to dig. Snapshot figures (forecast, SOS, unit ranks, Vegas lines) are credited to Sharp. Tables below are Hacking DFS calculations from nflverse (primary data source), including FTN charting data, plus NFL Next Gen Stats, 2025 play-by-play, snap counts, DraftKings weekly salaries, and NFL+ season averages. Play-level fantasy points are full PPR; weekly floor/ceiling numbers are DraftKings scoring. Please purchase the book for the full chapter, charts, tables and first-class expert commentary.

Team Snapshot

Win forecast, division finish, strength of schedule, and Vegas lines are from Sharp. 2025 record, ATS, totals, and scoring are Hacking DFS.

Coaches & Personnel Impact

Coaching Staff

Key Additions: Odafe Oweh (EDGE), K'Lavon Chaisson (EDGE), Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE), Leo Chenal (LB), Tim Settle (IDL), Amik Robertson (CB), Nick Cross (S), Charles Omenihu (EDGE), Rachaad White (RB), Dyami Brown (WR) (2025 Jacksonville; March 2026 re-sign), and Stefon Diggs.

Key Departures: Deebo Samuel (WR), Marshon Lattimore (CB), Tyler Biadasz (C) (Released; signed by the Chargers), Bobby Wagner (LB), Jacob Martin (EDGE) to the Titans, Zach Ertz (TE), Von Miller (EDGE), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB) to the Jaguars, Austin Ekeler (RB), Noah Brown (WR), Jonathan Jones (CB) to the Eagles, Noah Igbinoghene (CB) to the Seahawks, Josh Johnson (QB) to the Bengals, Jalyn Holmes (IDL) to the Titans, Chris Moore (WR), Eddie Goldman (IDL), George Fant (LT), Jeff Driskel (QB), Preston Smith (EDGE), Sheldon Day (IDL), Chase Edmonds (RB), Lucas Niang (RT), Tyree Jackson (TE), Ja'Corey Brooks (WR), Jake Moody (K) (Released), and Van Jefferson (WR) (Released at cutdown).

Unavailable / status: Laremy Tunsil (LT — Reserve/Injured August 31; starting left tackle); Jer'Zhan Newton (DT — Reserve/Injured August 31; 5.0 sacks in 2025); Trey Amos (CB — IR/designated to return); Jeremy McNichols (RB — IR/designated to return); Jerome Ford (RB — IR). Sharp's published Offensive Line #22 grade predates Tunsil's August 31 Reserve/Injured placement. Sharp's published Secondary #31 grade predates Amos IR/DFR.

Dan Quinn enters his third season as head coach with Sharp ranking his leadership twenty-second among NFL peers, but the schematic identity shifts under two new coordinators. David Blough takes over as offensive coordinator in his first season with the club, while Daronte Jones assumes the same role on defense. The personnel churn supports these fresh voices by injecting veteran stability into key spots. Stefon Diggs signed on August 7 and secured a spot on the initial fifty-three-man roster, where the team lists him as the second wide receiver behind Terry McLaurin. Dyami Brown returns to Washington after one season with Jacksonville, having re-signed in March 2026. The backfield adds Rachaad White via free agency, providing a new option alongside existing holdovers. Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo also joins the offense as a free-agent addition, offering another target for the passing game.

Defensively, the Commanders addressed edge pressure and interior depth through several acquisitions. Odafe Oweh, K'Lavon Chaisson, and Charles Omenihu arrive to bolster the pass rush, while Tim Settle strengthens the interior defensive line. Linebacker Leo Chenal adds experience to the second level, and the secondary gains Amik Robertson at cornerback and Nick Cross at safety. These additions help offset significant departures, including wide receiver Deebo Samuel, cornerback Marshon Lattimore, and tight end Zach Ertz. Washington released center Tyler Biadasz, who later signed with the Chargers, and also lost edge rushers Jacob Martin and Von Miller. Other notable exits include running backs Austin Ekeler and Chris Rodriguez Jr., who joined the Jaguars, and cornerback Jonathan Jones, who departed for the Eagles. This roster turnover aims to refresh units that struggled in 2025, when the team finished with a 5-12 record.

2026 Draft Class

Draft class summary

Washington addressed its most glaring defensive need by selecting linebacker Sonny Styles with the seventh overall pick in the first round. Sharp notes that Styles was widely projected to be selected within the top five, making his availability a significant value for the Commanders. He arrives as an ideal fit for Daronte Jones’ defense, which is expected to mirror the aggressive scheme Brian Flores utilizes in Minnesota. While Styles blitzed on only 18 percent of pass snaps during his 2025 season at Ohio State, Sharp highlights that he generated a robust 20 percent pressure rate on those opportunities. His elite range and exceptional wrap-up tackling ability should provide immediate stability against the run, underscored by a 2 percent missed tackle rate that Sharp identifies as the lowest among all linebackers in this draft class. This selection aims to bolster a defense that must compensate for the departure of key veterans like Bobby Wagner and Marshon Lattimore.

The offensive side of the ball received attention in the third round when Washington selected wide receiver Antonio Williams from Clemson with the 71st overall pick. Williams profiles as an undersized possession slot receiver who can help fill the void left by the departure of Deebo Samuel and Noah Brown. The Commanders continued to add depth in the later rounds, selecting defensive end Joshua Josephs from Tennessee in the fifth round, followed by running back Kaytron Allen from Penn State and center Matt Gulbin from Michigan State in the sixth round. The draft class concluded in the seventh round with the selection of quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis from Rutgers. These later picks provide necessary roster depth across multiple position groups as the team looks to improve upon its 5-12 record from the prior season.

Sharp Forecasts Washington Commanders with 7.5 Wins

Sharp forecasts Washington Commanders at 7.5 wins, a projection that reflects a roster navigating significant turnover and a challenging path forward. The team enters the season with a Sharp strength-of-schedule rank of 15th (1=easiest, 32=hardest), having struggled against quality competition in 2025 by posting a 2-5 record against playoff teams and a 2-7 mark against teams with winning records. Health remains a primary concern after an injury-plagued campaign where the franchise ranked 30th in offensive player health, 27th in defensive player health, and 30th in total player health. These physical setbacks limited Jayden Daniels to just seven starts, disrupting continuity and forcing the offense to rely on efficiency in limited opportunities rather than sustained volume.

Despite the health issues, the offense demonstrated remarkable red-zone proficiency, converting touchdowns at a 65.2% rate compared to the 57.3% league average. Skill-position depth beyond Terry McLaurin is no longer the same picture Sharp wrote before cutdown. Sharp originally identified veteran receiving depth beyond McLaurin as a weakness, but the August signing of Stefon Diggs (11,504 career receiving yards; WR2 on the initial 53) materially changed that picture. Van Jefferson, who was part of the earlier depth projection, did not make the initial 53. Chigoziem Okonkwo arrives via free agency to bolster the tight end room, and Dyami Brown returns to Washington after one season with Jacksonville. The active 2026 backfield is a three-man committee of Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Rachaad White, and Kaytron Allen — the group Sharp ranks last among running-back units. Jeremy McNichols is IR/designated to return and Jerome Ford is on IR; they are not competing for Week 1 roles.

Schedule Timing & Rest

Sharp’s schedule timing metrics place the Washington Commanders in a favorable position regarding cumulative recovery, assigning them a net rest edge rank of 5 out of 32 teams. This ranking reflects a season-long surplus of nine rest days, which is the fifth-most helpful total in the league. The weekly breakdown shows that most contests offer no specific rest advantage or disadvantage, but three weeks stand out with labeled edges. The most significant boost arrives in Week 8 against Philadelphia at home during a Sunday Night Football slot, providing a +7 day rest edge. Additional positive margins occur in Week 11 against Cincinnati at home on Monday Night Football with a +3 day edge, while Week 12 at Arizona carries a slight -1 day deficit.

Beyond the raw rest days, Sharp assigns the Commanders a prep rank of 1 and a negated bye rank of 6, indicating strong structural advantages in preparation time and bye week placement. Washington ranks fourth in Sharp's short-week-road metric and ninth in games-off-road-SNF/MNF. Those figures are ranks, not game counts. Sharp's rest analysis lists only one contest with less rest than the opponent (Week 12 at Arizona, −1 day). Their general rest rank sits at 19, suggesting that while the cumulative days are high, the standard spacing between games is average. These timing factors combine to create a schedule environment where the Commanders benefit from elite preparation metrics and a top-five net rest advantage across the full season.

Team timing ranks vs NFL (1=best)

Net rest edge rank is season net rest days (1=most helped, 32=most hurt); this club +9 days.

Critical & Game-Deciding Stats

Turnovers

Giveaways: Marcus Mariota (7 INT, 3 FL), Jayden Daniels (3 INT, 2 FL), Josh Johnson (2 INT, 1 FL), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (2 FL), Jaylin Lane (1 FL, special teams return), Jeremy McNichols (1 FL). Takeaways: Mike Sainristil (4 INT), Marshon Lattimore (1 INT, 1 FR), Bobby Wagner (2 INT), Kain Medrano (1 FR), Jeremy Reaves (1 INT)

Washington’s 2025 ball-security profile presents a clear hurdle for bettors and fantasy managers alike, as the team recorded 23 giveaways to rank twenty-first in the league. The quarterback room drove much of this volume, with Marcus Mariota accounting for seven interceptions thrown and three fumbles lost, while Jayden Daniels contributed three interceptions thrown and two fumbles lost. Josh Johnson added two interceptions thrown and one fumble lost before his departure to the Bengals, and the running back corps saw Jacory Croskey-Merritt lose two fumbles and Jeremy McNichols lose one. Special teams also played a role in the negative turnover margin, as punt returner Jaylin Lane was credited with one fumble lost on a return. These errors resulted in a net turnover differential of minus-13, highlighting a need for cleaner execution across all phases of the offense.

The defense struggled to offset these offensive mistakes, generating only ten takeaways to finish thirty-first in the NFL. Mike Sainristil led the unit with four interceptions, while Bobby Wagner added two interceptions before departing the roster. Marshon Lattimore, who has since left the team, recorded one interception and one fumble recovery, and Jeremy Reaves chipped in with one interception. The pass rush and secondary combined for just two fumble recoveries, ranking last in the league, with Kain Medrano responsible for one of those recoveries. With key takeaway producers like Lattimore and Wagner no longer on the roster, Washington must rely on new additions such as Nick Cross and Amik Robertson to help reverse a trend that saw the team surrender possession far more often than it seized it.

Sacks

Yardage surrendered to sacks: Marcus Mariota 107 yards; Jayden Daniels 79 yards; Josh Johnson 14 yards. Formation-play sack shares divide sacks by all plays from that formation, including runs, so they are not conventional dropback sack rates: 34/696 ≈ 4.9% of shotgun plays. Coverage-shell rows are raw sack counts (and count ranks), not per-snap efficiency measures.

Sack leaders (defense): Von Miller (9), Dorance Armstrong (5.5), Jacob Martin (5.5), Jer'Zhan Newton (5)

Washington’s offensive line surrendered 37 sacks during the 2025 season, a total that ranked 15th in the league. The yardage lost to these negative plays was distributed among three quarterbacks, with Marcus Mariota absorbing 107 yards in losses, Jayden Daniels losing 79 yards, and Josh Johnson accounting for 14 yards. When examining sack frequency relative to formation usage, the data indicates that 34 sacks occurred across 696 shotgun plays. This figure represents approximately 4.9% of all plays run from that specific alignment, a metric that includes rushing attempts and therefore differs from standard dropback sack rates.

On the defensive side of the ball, the pass rush production was led by Von Miller, who recorded nine sacks before his departure to free agency. Dorance Armstrong and Jacob Martin each contributed 5.5 sacks, while Jer'Zhan Newton added five sacks to the team total. Miller and Martin are 2026 departures. Newton remains on the roster but was placed on Reserve/Injured on August 31, so those five sacks are 2025 history rather than an assumed 2026 interior contribution.

Return Touchdowns

Punt & kickoff TDs scored: 2 (#4) — Jaylin Lane (2 punt returns).

Punt returns 26 for 315 yards; kickoff returns 71 for 1918 yards.

Both touchdowns came on Jaylin Lane punt returns. Those two scores ranked fourth in the league. Lane remains the punt returner, and the unit handled 26 punt returns for 315 yards. The team also managed a high volume of kickoff activity, recording 71 returns for 1,918 yards, though those efforts did not result in additional scores. This production highlights Lane’s role as a primary threat in the special teams phase, providing a reliable avenue for points outside of offensive drives.

Defensively, the coverage units were equally effective in preventing big plays, as opponents failed to score any touchdowns on punt or kickoff returns against Washington. This clean sheet earned the team the top league ranking in this specific defensive metric, demonstrating disciplined lane integrity and tackling in open space. While the data does not include starting field position details to confirm overall advantage, the zero touchdowns allowed confirms that opposing returners found no path to the end zone. The combination of Lane’s scoring ability and the team’s shutout performance in coverage made special teams a net positive contributor during the season.

Penalties

Offense: 70 penalties for 514 yards (#26). Most common: False Start (33), Offensive Holding (14), Intentional Grounding (5). Most flags in Shotgun (21), Pistol (2), Under Center (2). Most flagged players: Josh Conerly Jr. (9), Zach Ertz (5), Laremy Tunsil (5).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 47 penalties for 399 yards (#16), including 4 special-teams punt-return holdings — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Holding (7), Defensive Offside (6). Most flags on Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (6), Cover 3 (3). Most flagged players: Marshon Lattimore (7), Javon Kinlaw (5), Noah Igbinoghene (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

The Washington Commanders’ offense struggled with discipline last season, accumulating 70 penalties for 514 yards, which ranked twenty-sixth in the league. False starts were the primary issue, accounting for 33 of those flags, while offensive holding contributed another 14 and intentional grounding added five more. These infractions occurred most frequently when the unit operated out of the shotgun formation, which saw 21 penalties, compared to just two each in pistol and under-center sets. Individual accountability was spread among key contributors, with Josh Conerly Jr. drawing nine flags, while Zach Ertz and Laremy Tunsil each committed five penalties.

On the other side of the ball, the defense-side nflverse bucket recorded 47 penalties for 399 yards, placing the team sixteenth in the league. This metric includes all defensive flags as well as special teams holdings that fall within this specific data category, rather than representing pure scheme-based defensive errors alone. By finishing in the middle of the pack in penalty avoidance on defense, the unit avoided the extreme volatility seen on offense, though the overall team discipline remains an area requiring attention as they look to improve upon their previous five-win campaign.

Early Downs & Red Zone Efficiency

Early Downs: 759 plays, 46.0% success, 0.03 EPA/play (#13). Most efficient on early downs: Luke McCaffrey (10 plays, 0.99 EPA/play), Terry McLaurin (37 plays, 0.70 EPA/play).

Red Zone: 158 plays, 46.8% success, 0.07 EPA/play (#9).

The Washington Commanders demonstrated solid efficiency on early downs, generating positive expected points added across a high volume of opportunities. The offense ran 759 plays in these situations, achieving a 46.0% success rate and an EPA per play of 0.03, which ranked 13th in the league. Individual contributors drove much of this effectiveness, with Luke McCaffrey posting an impressive 0.99 EPA per play over 10 plays. Terry McLaurin also provided significant value, recording a 0.70 EPA per play across 37 early-down plays, helping the unit maintain steady offensive momentum.

Red zone performance further highlighted the team's ability to capitalize on scoring chances, as they ranked ninth in EPA per play with a mark of 0.07. Over 158 red zone plays, the Commanders secured a 46.8% success rate, indicating a reliable approach when field position tightened. This combination of top-15 early-down efficiency and top-10 red zone production suggests the offense was well-equipped to sustain drives and convert opportunities inside the 20-yard line during the previous season.

Pass Rate / Rush Rate

On neutral downs, pass rate over expected (PROE) was -3.1 (#20); they passed 49.9% of those snaps.

On pass plays (not official attempts): Marcus Mariota (47.1% success on 244 pass plays), Jayden Daniels (44.4% success on 205 pass plays), Josh Johnson (50.0% success on 54 pass plays).

On rushes (qualifying 2025 PBP rush plays — not official NFL attempt totals): Jacory Croskey-Merritt (42.6% success on 176 qualifying PBP rush plays), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (46.4% success on 112 qualifying PBP rush plays), Jayden Daniels (51.9% success on 54 qualifying PBP rush plays).

The Washington Commanders leaned heavily on the ground game in 2025, ranking fourth in rush rate at 48.5% while Washington ranked 29th in pass rate at 51.5%. This run-heavy approach produced efficient results, as the team averaged 4.85 yards per rush play to rank fifth and posted a 45.1% success rate on qualifying rush plays, good for seventh overall. Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the volume with 176 qualifying rush plays and a 42.6% success rate, while Chris Rodriguez Jr. achieved a 46.4% success rate on 112 qualifying PBP rush plays. Jayden Daniels also contributed significantly to the ground attack, recording a 51.9% success rate on 54 qualifying rush plays.

Through the air, the offense generated 6.22 yards per pass play, ranking 13th, with a 46.2% success rate that placed tenth in the league. Its 504 pass plays ranked 31st. On neutral downs, the team passed on 49.9% of snaps, resulting in a pass rate over expected (PROE) of -3.1, which ranked 20th. Marcus Mariota led the passing efficiency metrics with a 47.1% success rate on 244 pass plays, followed by Jayden Daniels at 44.4% on 205 pass plays. Josh Johnson appeared in limited action but maintained a 50.0% success rate across his 54 pass plays.

Explosive Plays

Explosive Playmakers (Offense)

Coverages Beaten

Explosive Plays Allowed (Defense)

Coverages When Explosives Were Allowed

Explosive play = 20+ yards gained on a rush or pass (2025 PBP). Rank 1 = most generated on offense / fewest allowed on defense.

The Washington Commanders struggled to generate big gains on offense during the 2025 season, finishing with a league rank of 25th in raw explosive-play count. The unit produced just 51 total plays of 20 or more yards, accumulating 1,626 yards from those bursts. Most of this production came through the air, where the team recorded 40 passing explosives for 1,215 yards, compared to only 11 rushing explosives that gained 411 yards. Among individual contributors, Deebo Samuel Sr. led the way with 10 receiving explosives totaling 262 yards, while Terry McLaurin added seven catches of 20-plus yards for 245 yards. Zach Ertz added five receiving explosives for 123 yards, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt contributed three rushing explosives for 141 yards. Marcus Mariota also chipped in with four rushing explosives for 113 yards, while Luke McCaffrey secured three receiving explosives for 126 yards.

Defensively, the Commanders allowed 63 explosive plays, ranking 19th in the league in terms of fewest allowed. Opponents gained 2,034 total yards on these big plays, with the majority coming through the passing game. Most of Washington's explosive plays allowed came through the air: 53 passing explosives for 1,726 yards compared with 10 rushing explosives for 308 yards. These raw totals do not measure explosive-play rate.

Offensive Personnel Usage

FP/play is full PPR from 2025 PBP, not DraftKings.

RPOs are also counted in shotgun, pistol, or under center.

Washington leaned heavily on the 11 personnel package, which features one running back, one tight end, and three wide receivers, for the majority of its offensive snaps in 2025. This grouping generated 1.38 full PPR fantasy points per play and frequently deployed Jeremy McNichols, Zach Ertz, Deebo Samuel Sr., Terry McLaurin, and Jaylin Lane. The team also utilized the 12 personnel set with two tight ends and two wide receivers on 294 plays, producing 1.09 fantasy points per play with contributors such as Jacory Croskey-Merritt, John Bates, Ben Sinnott, Deebo Samuel Sr., and Chris Moore. Less frequent looks included the 13 personnel package with three tight ends and the 21 personnel package with two running backs, though these smaller sample sizes still offered distinct usage patterns for players like Chris Rodriguez Jr. and John Bates.

Formation data shows that the Commanders operated out of shotgun on 71.1% of their plays, yielding 1.43 fantasy points per play, while pistol and under center alignments accounted for 17.5% and 11.4% of snaps respectively. Production varied by alignment, as the pistol formation returned 0.97 fantasy points per play and under-center plays resulted in 0.83 fantasy points per play. Run-pass options were integrated into these structures rather than standing as a separate category, appearing on 7.9% of snaps and generating 0.98 fantasy points per play. These figures illustrate how output shifted depending on whether the offense lined up in space or closer to the line of scrimmage.

Pre-snap Motion & Play Action

Motion rate rank #16; play-action rank #11 (32-team, 2025 PBP + FTN charting).

FPavg is full PPR per play.

Washington deployed pre-snap motion on 54.5 percent of its offensive snaps in 2025, a usage rate that ranked sixteenth among all thirty-two franchises. The Commanders ran 534 plays featuring such movement, resulting in a 46.8 percent success rate. When examining full PPR fantasy points per play, the data shows a split of 1.26 points with motion compared to 1.30 points without it. This indicates that while motion was a frequent component of the offensive scheme, the raw efficiency metrics did not favor its use over static alignments during the prior season.

Play action passing occurred at a 14.9 percent rate, which placed the team eleventh in the league for frequency. On the 146 plays where play action was utilized, Washington achieved a 53.4 percent success rate. The fantasy production disparity was more pronounced here, as plays with play action yielded 1.96 full PPR points per play versus 1.16 points on plays without it. These figures describe the historical output associated with each tactical choice without implying that one approach directly caused superior overall team performance.

Passing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Washington’s passing attack enters 2026 with a quarterback room ranked fourteenth by Sharp, headlined by Jayden Daniels as he begins his third NFL season. The sophomore campaign was largely disrupted, with Daniels participating in only 38.4 percent of offensive snaps, but he avoided offseason surgery and is poised to lead the unit under new offensive coordinator David Blough. Blough, arriving from a background with Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson, has indicated a shift toward a more balanced offensive structure that will feature Daniels operating from under center more frequently. This represents a significant schematic adjustment for the quarterback, who has taken 92.9 percent of his career dropbacks from the shotgun, a tendency that has coincided with below-league-average usage of pre-snap motion.

The efficiency metrics from 2025 highlight the challenges the passing game must overcome. Washington’s passers combined for a 27th-ranked passer rating of 85.5, while completing just 61.2 percent of their attempts, which ranked twenty-sixth. The unit managed a 4.1 percent touchdown rate (twenty-third) and a 2.6 percent interception rate (twenty-second), while allowing sacks on 7.3 percent of dropbacks, a figure that placed them eighteenth in the league. In limited DraftKings-tracked action, Daniels averaged 17.3 points across seven games with a floor of 17.1 and a ceiling of 21.7, posting an EPA per dropback of -0.04 and a completion percentage over expectation of -2.9 percent. Marcus Mariota provided relief in ten tracked games, averaging 14.7 DraftKings points with a -0.05 EPA per dropback and a +3.8 percent CPOE.

Sharp ranks the offensive line twenty-second, a published grade that predates starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil's Reserve/Injured placement on August 31. Without Tunsil, that line still has to hold up as Blough puts more under-center work on Daniels. The team added depth to the roster through the draft, selecting Clemson wide receiver Antonio Williams in the third round at pick seventy-one and quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis in the seventh round at pick two hundred twenty-three. Matt Gulbin was also selected at pick two hundred nine to bolster the interior line. With backup quarterbacks Josh Johnson and Jeff Driskel listed among the departures, Marcus Mariota remains the primary backup and Athan Kaliakmanis is QB3. The Commanders will rely on Daniels’ health and adaptation to Blough’s system to improve upon the previous year’s bottom-tier passing efficiency numbers.

QB fantasy metrics. DKavg, floor, ceiling, Slate Win, Avg $, and FP/$ from weekly DraftKings logs. EPA/DB and CPOE from NFL+ regular-season averages. Slate Win = weeks in the top N at that DK position on the salary slate (QB 5 / RB·WR 12 / TE 6). DK GP is the fantasy-tracked sample.

Receiving Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

The 2025 receiving corps operated with significant volume from its veteran leaders, though the unit faces a major turnover heading into the new season. Deebo Samuel Sr. led the wide receivers in target volume with 99 looks, securing a 23.0 percent target share and averaging 1.92 fantasy points per target. Terry McLaurin was highly efficient in his limited sample, posting a plus-30.6 reception EPA over just 10 games while commanding a 23.2 percent target share and an air yards per target average of 14.0. Zach Ertz anchored the tight end room with 72 targets and a 19.7 percent target share, contributing 10.0 average fantasy points per game. In the red zone, Samuel was the most involved pass-catcher with 13 targets, followed by Ertz with nine and McLaurin with eight. However, the departure of Samuel, Ertz, Chris Moore, Noah Brown, Tyree Jackson, and Ja'Corey Brooks strips the roster of its primary volume earners from the previous campaign.

Sharp ranked the Commanders' receiving unit 31st before Washington's August signing of Stefon Diggs, so that published grade does not reflect the current receiver room. Dyami Brown returns to Washington after spending the 2025 season with Jacksonville, re-signing in March 2026 to provide depth. Chigoziem Okonkwo joins the tight end group as a free-agent addition, aiming to replace the target vacuum left by Ertz. Jaylin Lane remains on the roster as a holdover who made the initial 53, continuing his role as a punt returner and wide receiver despite his modest 3.0 average fantasy points per game in 2025.

The offense will look to integrate these new pieces while developing younger talent, including third-round pick Antonio Williams, selected at pick 71 out of Clemson. Luke McCaffrey showed flashes of high efficiency with 3.29 fantasy points per target on 15 looks, but he must expand his role amidst the roster changes. Treylon Burks also remains in the mix after capturing 22 targets and earning four red-zone looks during the prior season. With David Blough taking over as offensive coordinator and promising a more balanced approach that includes more under-center snaps for Jayden Daniels, the receiving group must prove it can generate separation and sustain drives without the heavy target shares previously held by Samuel and Ertz. The success of this revamped unit will depend heavily on how quickly Diggs and Okonkwo can assimilate into the system alongside McLaurin.

TGT% / Rec EPA / AYavg are NFL+ season averages. TGT% is each player's share of targets over his NFL+ qualifying sample, not necessarily his share of every team target for the full season. For players traded midseason whose NFL+ sample includes games with another club (multi-team PBP targets), those three columns are left blank so prior-team production is not mixed into this club's row. DraftKings columns use this club's fantasy weeks only. Red-zone and early-down tables provide separate club-specific target splits.

Overall Targets

Overall Targets uses NFL+ season targets for players who spent the year with one club. Traded players who changed teams midseason (multi-team PBP targets) are left blank here so the NFL+ season total (which can blend both clubs) is not mistaken for this club's volume; use the red-zone and early-down tables for this club's hierarchy instead.

Red Zone Targets

Early Down Targets

Rushing Game: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Sharp ranks the Washington Commanders’ 2026 running back unit 32nd, a projection that reflects significant turnover in the backfield rather than just prior performance. In 2025, Jacory Croskey-Merritt led the group with 175 carries over 17 games, while Chris Rodriguez Jr. added 112 attempts across 12 contests. The rushing attack faces a new landscape after Rodriguez departed for the Jaguars, joining Austin Ekeler and Chase Edmonds as notable losses from the 2025 roster. To address these exits, Washington signed Rachaad White in free agency. Croskey-Merritt remains on the roster with that 175-carry résumé, White adds receiving ability, and sixth-round pick Kaytron Allen (pick 187) is in the mix — Washington expects all three to have roles.

Efficiency metrics from the previous season highlight the challenges the ground game must overcome. Croskey-Merritt posted a negative rush EPA of -10.7 and a 41.7% success rate, while Rodriguez generated a positive 3.5 rush EPA with a 45.5% success rate. PBP and NFL+ success rates use different denominators, so these figures should be viewed as distinct indicators of play quality rather than direct conversions of attempt volume. The offensive line, which Sharp ranks 22nd for 2026, will need to provide better support for that committee — and that published grade predates starting left tackle Laremy Tunsil’s Reserve/Injured placement on August 31. Matt Gulbin, selected in the sixth round at pick 209, adds depth to the interior line but does not immediately alter the top-level outlook for the run-blocking unit.

Red-zone usage in 2025 was split heavily between the two primary ball carriers, with both players seeing substantial work near the goal line. Rodriguez handled 33 red-zone rushes and one target on 34 total opportunities, scoring six total red-zone touchdowns. Croskey-Merritt saw 32 red-zone rushes and one target on 33 opportunities, resulting in seven total red-zone touchdowns. Rodriguez left for the Jaguars; Croskey-Merritt remains. Washington’s 2026 committee of Croskey-Merritt, White, and Allen will reset high-leverage rushing attempts rather than handing the job to White by default.

Red Zone Rushing Scope

Team Scoring

PPG from 2025 regular-season finals. FP/G is full PPR per game from PBP (not DraftKings). Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

Washington produced 20.9 points per game during the 2025 regular season, a scoring output that ranked 22nd in the league. The defense surrendered 26.5 points per contest, placing it 27th in points allowed. When viewing these results through a full PPR fantasy lens rather than real-world box scores, the offense generated 72.4 fantasy points per game, which sat at 27th overall. The defensive unit allowed 94.2 fantasy points per game to opponents, a mark that ranked 31st. These figures illustrate that the team struggled to convert drives into high-volume fantasy production for skill players while also failing to limit opponent scoring opportunities.

The disparity between real-world points and fantasy aggregates highlights specific inefficiencies in how the roster utilized its playmakers. A 22nd-place finish in actual scoring did not translate into a similarly competitive standing in fantasy points, as the offense remained in the bottom tier for FP/G. That 2025 production now carries into a 2026 schedule Sharp ranks 15th on its difficulty scale, positioning the Commanders with a mid-pack slate of opponents. The team must improve its efficiency to move out of the lower quartiles in both scoring metrics.

Scoring By Quarter

Avg Pts are NFL points per game in that quarter. FPavg is full PPR per game from PBP, not DraftKings. Rank 1 = most scored / fewest allowed.

The Washington Commanders struggled to generate early offense, ranking 31st in real points and 30th in full PPR fantasy points scored during the first quarter. This slow start persisted into the third period, where the unit placed 18th in scoring and 24th in fantasy production. The second quarter served as the primary offensive window, with the team posting its highest average of 7.7 real points per game to rank eighth league-wide, while fantasy output reached 21.7 points per contest for a 20th-place finish. Closing drives were moderately effective, as the fourth quarter saw 6.2 real points per game and 21.2 fantasy points, both landing at the 19th and 20th ranks respectively.

Defensive performance varied significantly by period, with the unit allowing the fewest real points in the fourth quarter at 5.5 per game, good for the seventh-fewest in the NFL. Opponents also generated their lowest fantasy averages against Washington in the final frame, totaling 20.8 points for the 13th-fewest allowed. The defense was most leaky in the opening and third quarters, surrendering the 28th-fewest real points in Q1 (5th-most) and the 29th-fewest in Q3, with fantasy points allowed ranking 30th-fewest in both of those periods (3rd-most). Second-quarter resistance sat in the middle of the pack: 7.9 real points allowed ranked 22nd-fewest, and 26.7 fantasy points ranked 26th-fewest (7th-most).

Defensive Outlook

Sharp's defensive Rank: Front 7 #24, Secondary #31.

Defensive Studs

Note: Combined tackles are 2025 regular-season nflverse totals (solo + assists). Traded players may include production from a prior club unless a single-club club-stint total is available.

Bobby Wagner led the club with 162 tackles; Von Miller 9.0 sacks, Jacob Martin 5.5 sacks, Dorance Armstrong 5.5 sacks.

Defensive counting stats: Bobby Wagner: 8 TFL, 4.5 sacks, 2 INT, 4 PD; Quan Martin: 1 TFL, 3 PD; Jeremy Reaves: 5 TFL, 1.0 sacks, 1 INT, 7 PD; Frankie Luvu: 5 TFL, 3.0 sacks, 6 PD; Mike Sainristil: 1 TFL, 4 INT, 12 PD; Jordan Magee: 3 TFL, 1 PD; Von Miller: 6 TFL, 9.0 sacks; Jacob Martin: 3 TFL, 5.5 sacks, 1 PD; Dorance Armstrong: 7 TFL, 5.5 sacks.

Sharp ranks Washington's 2026 Front 7 24th and the Secondary 31st. Those published grades predate later roster hits: interior lineman Jer'Zhan Newton, who had 5.0 sacks in the 2025 table, went on Reserve/Injured on August 31, and cornerback Trey Amos is IR/designated to return. The 2025 defense also lost a large share of its production. Bobby Wagner, Von Miller, Jacob Martin, Eddie Goldman, and Sheldon Day are gone from the front seven. Marshon Lattimore left in free agency; Jonathan Jones signed with the Eagles and Noah Igbinoghene with the Seahawks.

To counter these losses, Washington added multiple defenders via free agency, including edge rushers Odafe Oweh, K'Lavon Chaisson, and Charles Omenihu. The front seven also gained depth with the additions of linebacker Leo Chenal and interior defensive lineman Tim Settle. In the back end, the team signed cornerback Amik Robertson and safety Nick Cross to bolster the secondary. The draft class contributed further reinforcements with first-round linebacker Sonny Styles from Ohio State and defensive end Joshua Josephs from Tennessee. Styles gives Washington another athletic piece as it attempts to improve a Front 7 that Sharp ranked 24th entering 2026. The success of this revamped group will depend on how quickly these new faces can integrate and produce tackles for loss, sacks, and pass deflections.

Fantasy Points Allowed by Coverage

Rank 1 = fewest PPR fantasy points allowed per snap in that coverage.

Special Teams: 2025 Recap & 2026 Outlook

Jake Moody: 23/30 FG, 33/34 PAT.

Tress Way led with 56 punts (29 inside the 20).

Kickoff returner Luke McCaffrey: 26 returns for 769 yards.

Punt returner Jaylin Lane: 23 returns for 314 yards.

Special teams tackler Percy Butler: 11 combined tackles on punts and kickoffs.

Jake Moody handled the placekicking duties in 2025, converting 23 of 30 field goal attempts for a 76.7 percent success rate while going 33 of 34 on extra points. His longest make traveled 56 yards, and he connected on six kicks from 50 yards or longer. Washington released Moody after the season and named rookie Drew Stevens the 2026 starting kicker. Tress Way anchored the punting game by booting 56 times without allowing a block, placing 29 of those punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line to pin opposing offenses deep.

Luke McCaffrey served as the primary kickoff returner last season, accumulating 769 yards across 26 returns. Jaylin Lane, who remains on the roster as the punt returner and wide receiver, logged 314 yards on 23 punt returns. Percy Butler led the unit in coverage with 11 combined tackles on kickoff and punt plays, providing the most consistent defensive presence among special teams contributors.

Penalty Analysis

Washington demonstrated a distinct split in penalty efficiency during 2025, leveraging situational discipline to gain field position while struggling with pre-snap execution. The Commanders ranked first in net automatic first downs gained via penalties on third-down plays, a metric Sharp attributes partly to the team playing from behind at an above-average rate. This advantage extended into late-game situations, where Washington held a top-five edge in fourth-quarter penalty yards compared to opponents. However, this situational benefit was offset by significant issues before the ball was snapped. The offense ranked as the second-most penalized unit on third downs, trailing only the New York Giants. Furthermore, Washington finished as a top-10 penalized team for pre-snap infractions, with false starts accounting for 70% of those flags, a category where the Commanders ranked first in the league.

The composition of these penalties shifted noticeably from the previous year, indicating specific areas of concern for the offensive line and skill players. Sharp's penalty methodology reports offensive holding and false starts as 43% of Washington's total penalties. The HackingDFS/nflverse table below records 47 such flags among 117 total, or 40.2%; the two figures use different penalty definitions and are not directly interchangeable. Washington also ranked second in declined penalties per game. Additionally, the Commanders were among the top-five most penalized teams at home. Addressing these pre-snap errors will be essential for the team to support Jayden Daniels and return to playoff contention.

Types of Penalties

Offense: 70 penalties for 514 yards (#26). Most common: False Start (33), Offensive Holding (14), Intentional Grounding (5). Most flags in Shotgun (21), Pistol (2), Under Center (2). Most flagged players: Josh Conerly Jr. (9), Zach Ertz (5), Laremy Tunsil (5).

Defense-side nflverse bucket: 47 penalties for 399 yards (#16), including 4 special-teams punt-return holdings — not a pure scheme-defense total. Most common: Defensive Pass Interference (8), Defensive Holding (7), Defensive Offside (6). Most flags on Cover 1 (11), Cover 2 (6), Cover 3 (3). Most flagged players: Marshon Lattimore (7), Javon Kinlaw (5), Noah Igbinoghene (4).

League Rank polarity: #1 = fewest penalties (most disciplined); #32 = most flags.

Washington’s offense drew 70 penalties for 514 yards, ranking twenty-sixth in the league. False starts were the most frequent infraction with thirty-three occurrences, followed by fourteen offensive holding calls and five intentional grounding flags. These infractions clustered heavily in shotgun formations, which accounted for twenty-one of the team’s offensive penalties, while pistol and under-center alignments each produced two flags. Among individual players, Josh Conerly Jr. led the unit with nine penalties, while Zach Ertz and Laremy Tunsil each accrued five flags.

On the defensive side of the ball, the nflverse bucket recorded forty-seven penalties for 399 yards, a mark that ranked sixteenth overall. This total includes four special-teams holding penalties on punt returns, meaning it does not represent pure defensive scheme infractions alone. Defensive pass interference was the most common call with eight instances, and defensive holding followed with seven. The data separates these coverage-related flags from the broader team total, highlighting specific areas where the secondary and special teams units drew attention from officials.

Top Fantasy Player Targets

Sharp fantasy ranks: Terry McLaurin WR22, Jayden Daniels QB3.

The QB, WR, TE, and RB tables above already cover 2025 DraftKings averages, floors, ceilings, slate wins, and salaries from Hacking DFS. This section is the roster call — who to target, who to fade, and who inherits work from free agency and the draft.

Fantasy Points & Expected Fantasy Points

FPavg and xFPavg are full PPR per game from 2025 PBP (not DraftKings).

GP is games with at least one scored skill play in the 2025 PBP fantasy sample — not necessarily official games played.

xFPavg uses expected receiving/rushing/passing fantasy points.

Top scorers: Jayden Daniels (16.1 FPavg), Marcus Mariota (12.4 FPavg), Deebo Samuel Sr. (11.8 FPavg), Terry McLaurin (11.4 FPavg), Zach Ertz (9.6 FPavg).

Rushes vs Defensive Front 7

Front 7 = rushes against 7 or more defenders in the box (2025 PBP).

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR (not DraftKings).

Fantasy Points vs Coverage

Coverage % is share of offensive plays facing a charted coverage.

Total FP and FPavg are full PPR from 2025 PBP (FPavg is per play).

Zach Ertz led Washington in 2025 full-PPR points against Cover 3 (46). Deebo Samuel Sr. led against Cover 1 (44). Terry McLaurin led against Cover 4 (29) and remains the returning pass-catcher with the strongest historical coverage production in that table. How Diggs fits these coverage looks is a 2026 projection; the 2025 Washington table does not measure it. Zach Ertz has departed; Chigoziem Okonkwo is the tight end addition who must earn targets in an offense that previously leaned on Ertz against single-high and two-deep looks.

Deebo was a significant contributor before his departure, including 44 points against Cover 1 and 24 against Cover 2. His exit leaves a vacuum in the slot and intermediate areas. Dyami Brown returns to Washington after spending the 2025 season with Jacksonville, offering depth alongside Jaylin Lane, who remains on the roster as a punt returner and wide receiver. Fantasy managers should monitor how quickly Brown, Lane, and Luke McCaffrey can absorb targets vacated by Samuel, especially since the offense faced Cover 1 on 27.5 percent of its charted plays.

The running back corps faces an uphill battle given Sharp’s ranking of the unit as the weakest in the league at number 32. The 2026 backfield is a committee: Jacory Croskey-Merritt returns with the 175-carry 2025 résumé, Rachaad White joins as a free-agent receiving option, and Kaytron Allen is the sixth-round rookie. Washington says all three are expected to have roles. The coverage table is team-level total fantasy production and top scorers — it does not measure RB efficiency by shell. The table's highest per-play output is Cover 0 at 3.79 FPavg, ahead of Cover 4 at 2.20. The offense must rely more heavily on the passing attack, where McLaurin and Diggs can occupy the intermediate zones that previously featured Samuel and Ertz. Fantasy managers should prioritize the wide receivers in this system while treating the running back position as a volatile flex option until weekly workload trends become clear.

Skill adds: Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE), Rachaad White (RB), Dyami Brown (WR) (2025 Jacksonville; March 2026 re-sign), and Stefon Diggs (WR) (on initial 53; WR2 behind McLaurin).

Skill losses: Deebo Samuel (WR), Zach Ertz (TE), Chris Rodriguez Jr. (RB) to the Jaguars, Austin Ekeler (RB), Noah Brown (WR), Josh Johnson (QB) to the Bengals, Chris Moore (WR), Jeff Driskel (QB), Chase Edmonds (RB), Tyree Jackson (TE), and Ja'Corey Brooks (WR).

Skill draft picks: Antonio Williams (WR, Rd 3, Clemson), Kaytron Allen (RB, Rd 6, Penn State), and Athan Kaliakmanis (QB, Rd 7, Rutgers).

Jayden Daniels led the team with 16.1 full PPR fantasy points per game in 2025, establishing himself as the primary engine for this offense despite a 5-12 record. Among pass-catchers, Deebo Samuel Sr. posted 11.8 fantasy points per game, edging out Terry McLaurin’s 11.4 average, while Zach Ertz contributed 9.6 points per contest. Marcus Mariota added 12.4 points per game in his limited action, but Daniels remains the clear focal point for fantasy production. The gap between realized fantasy points and expected points for these leaders highlights where volume translated into scoring versus where opportunities went unrealized, offering a baseline for evaluating efficiency moving forward.

The receiving corps undergoes significant reshuffling with the departure of Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz, but Diggs stabilizes the top of the depth chart next to McLaurin. Dyami Brown returns to Washington after spending the 2025 season with Jacksonville, adding veteran depth to the outside receiver group. Chigoziem Okonkwo joins via free agency to fill the void at tight end left by Ertz, aiming to capture the target share previously commanded by the veteran pass-catcher. These moves suggest a redistribution of targets toward McLaurin and Diggs, with Okonkwo looking to secure a consistent role in the passing game.

In the backfield, Rachaad White arrives via free agency into a running back unit that Sharp ranks last in the league. Croskey-Merritt is still on the roster after leading Washington with 175 carries in 2025; White brings receiving ability, and Kaytron Allen is the sixth-round complement. Washington expects a three-man committee, not White as the starter by default. While the offensive line’s performance will dictate rushing efficiency — and starting LT Laremy Tunsil is on Reserve/Injured as of August 31 — weekly roles among Croskey-Merritt, White, and Allen will decide who to start.

Inside Scoop

Sharp assigns the Washington Commanders a C grade for Penalties & Discipline, giving them a middle-of-the-pack mark in that specific area entering 2026. Separately, Sharp forecasts 7.5 wins and a third-place finish in the NFC East. The positional rankings show a clear imbalance, with the Quarterbacks group ranked 14th while the Running Backs sit last in the league at No. 32.

That outlook follows a difficult 5-12 season in 2025, a major step back from the previous year’s NFC Championship appearance. The central question is whether that decline was a temporary setback or evidence of deeper roster problems. Much of Washington’s ceiling still depends on Jayden Daniels, who showed franchise-quarterback traits before injuries disrupted his 2025 season.

The supporting cast has changed considerably. Washington added edge rushers Odafe Oweh, K'Lavon Chaisson, and Charles Omenihu, along with linebacker Leo Chenal and defensive backs Amik Robertson and Nick Cross. The offense added Rachaad White, Chigoziem Okonkwo, and Stefon Diggs, while Dyami Brown returns after spending 2025 in Jacksonville. Those moves come alongside significant departures including Deebo Samuel, Marshon Lattimore, Bobby Wagner, and Zach Ertz.

Sharp ranks Washington’s schedule 15th in difficulty, placing it close to the middle of the league. That gives the Commanders a more manageable path than some NFC contenders, but the 7.5-win forecast still hinges on Daniels staying healthy and the reworked supporting cast improving around him. The Running Backs ranking at No. 32 remains one of the clearest concerns for bettors evaluating whether Washington can rebound from last season.

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Warren Sharp's 2026 Football Preview served as a research guide for this team preview. Hacking DFS tables, player-level analysis and fantasy metrics are independently calculated from the data sources noted above. Please support Sharp's work by purchasing the full preview for his complete team analysis. Verify against the latest market before betting.